It’s one thing to predict changes based on existing knowledge of coronaviral infections. It’s quite another to project the exact opposite, especially when there’s no real scientific plausibility behind that prediction. While anything is possible for a novel infectious agent, we should plan for the far more likely scenario that it behaves like nearly every other respiratory virus.That's fine, I feel like I qualified my statement sufficiently to show doubt. There were a billion and one experts that were predicting a pull back in the summer, including the IHME models having this thing going to damn near zero by August. They still have that bias baked in to their update yesterday.
Thank goodness there’re no arrows on the asphalt.As I was driving back home this morning, I was thinking of our inability as a country to do the right thing as a whole and wear masks for the sake of others because it benefits society. I'm thinking this as someone is driving aimlessly in the left lane without regard to others and making people go around on the right.
Just seemed like an obvious parallel. Go to Europe, for example, and everyone drives on the right unless passing. It's just what everyone does, it works, and it's considerate. It works because everyone understands and follows along. Here, however, it's futile. So many just don't care and will cruise along in the left lane because it benefits them and being considerate of others doesn't really matter.
Just like masks.
Closed down the Galveston beaches, imposed some heavier masking, bars closed. Generally taking things more seriously.I edited as well. I saw a few of those things. What specifically is Houston doing to fight the spread?
That's a great parallel.As I was driving back home this morning, I was thinking of our inability as a country to do the right thing as a whole and wear masks for the sake of others because it benefits society. I'm thinking this as someone is driving aimlessly in the left lane without regard to others and making people go around on the right.
Just seemed like an obvious parallel. Go to Europe, for example, and everyone drives on the right unless passing. It's just what everyone does, it works, and it's considerate. It works because everyone understands and follows along. Here, however, it's futile. So many just don't care and will cruise along in the left lane because it benefits them and being considerate of others doesn't really matter.
Just like masks.
Let's not get carried away.That's a great parallel.
I would add returning shopping carts to their proper place as another
The data doesn’t really show any benefit, though it certainly makes intuitive sense that passive immunity earlier would be more effective. Problem is, it’s an expensive, limited resource, so it will always be reserved for sicker patients, unless we determine a biomarker to predict who’s going to crash and burn. The Leronlimab guys are using RANTES, though I think procalcitonin, CRP, d-dimer, IL-6 or any cytokine, etc. will be too nonspecific.@Terminalxylem, we tried another convalescent plasma, this time on somebody who was MUCH earlier in their stay.....this time the guy seemed to have turned a corner much earlier. Maybe timing on it makes a big difference? Hard to say as our numbers (in my unit) are too low too make conclusions.
Michigan tooWe were pretty much told to stay home unless you had to get food. We were told you could leave to excercise but all parks, playgrounds, bars etc were closed. Couldn't even get home repairs done unless it was emergency. Other than locking the parks no one was getting arrested for being out but there really wasn't anywhere to go
Anti-body testing shouldn't be in their numbers. You can't really understand their rate of infection if being modified by people who were infected and have since recovered and have anti-bodies.AZ and their testing again:
Over 4000 new positives on less 12,000 tests. With a raw positive rate of 34%. I say raw because they combine PCR and antibody positives but report PCR tests separately. Antibody tests account for about 14% of the total tests reported, if you assume that the antibody and PCR positive rate is the same, that’s still 29%. That’s a very high antibody rate, if you adjust it to a more realistic 10%, that would put the PCR positivity at 32%. So their reporting policies skew the rate higher, it’s not a huge change and doesn’t change the horrible state of testing in Arizona.
79 new deaths reported today, probably the highest day that isn’t post-weekend catch-up or death certificate matching. Acute care beds continue to increase both with COVID and overall capacity but ICU did dip by about 10, a very positive trend that will hopefully continue.
Closed down the Galveston beaches, imposed some heavier masking, bars closed. Generally taking things more seriously.
The TMC slides showing things moving into a worse phase was actually noticed and people did right things.
While it's baffling why we need examples of what to do, then what to not do, and then what to do again after messing up, it is promising that there are some trends that indicate if we do shut down the correct things (like bars) and take the necessary precautions (wear masks) that it is possible to reverse the course when things go badly.AZ and their testing again:
Over 4000 new positives on less 12,000 tests. With a raw positive rate of 34%. I say raw because they combine PCR and antibody positives but report PCR tests separately. Antibody tests account for about 14% of the total tests reported, if you assume that the antibody and PCR positive rate is the same, that’s still 29%. That’s a very high antibody rate, if you adjust it to a more realistic 10%, that would put the PCR positivity at 32%. So their reporting policies skew the rate higher, it’s not a huge change and doesn’t change the horrible state of testing in Arizona.
79 new deaths reported today, probably the highest day that isn’t post-weekend catch-up or death certificate matching. Acute care beds continue to increase both with COVID and overall capacity but ICU did dip by about 10, a very positive trend that will hopefully continue.
Closing Galveston beaches had the opposite effect. That pushed a higher density of people to Freeport beaches and to Texas City dyke. Those places had more people than normal on the July 4th weekend because Galveston closed it's beaches.Closed down the Galveston beaches, imposed some heavier masking, bars closed. Generally taking things more seriously.
The TMC slides showing things moving into a worse phase was actually noticed and people did right things.
1. Not that we know of - early reports were based on flawed testing and/or longer carriage than expected.A couple questions. It seems like we should be able to answer by now.
Has anyone gotten this a second time?
Has anyone tested positive for antibodies and later negative?
MN hospitalizations have been holding steady around 250-260 the last week or so. But new cases are definitely up since around 6/15. Part of that is likely because testing is up (to around 12-15k a day now) but per John Hopkins the percent of positives has steadily climbed from under 2% in mid-June to nearly 5% now.After trending down for the last three weeks (topping out around 600 in late May and dropping to 322 on June 21), MN hospitalization numbers have ticked back up the last two days (from 322 to 339). The number of confirmed cases in MN has been decreasing over the last three weeks despite increased testing, so hopefully the increase in hospitalizations is just a blip.
ETA Link
Although their position demands it, I’m inherently skeptical on bed/resource reports from public officials and hospital admin. Too much incentive to paint a rosy picture, or simply disconnected from reality.Our mayor routinely reports "staffed beds." I assume they are taking in to account exactly what you are talking about. That a bed with no staff to attend to it is pretty useless for a COVID patient.
We really, really need to stop fixating on the death rate. We’re not going to know for a long time, and that will be in retrospect.Coulda sworn I posted this same article recently:
Fact check: CDC's estimates COVID-19 death rate around 0.26%, doesn't confirm it (USA Today, 6/5/2020)
Unfortunately, that doesn't really settle anything conclusively. So far as I understand it ... you can't really get any kind of firm "death rate" number this early on, anyway -- that goes for both CFR and IFR. Those kind of figures get better estimated after a year or two or three of data are in the rear-view mirror.
I broke the key off in my boat, and a locksmith told me they couldn't come out to fix it even though we would have no contact.We were pretty much told to stay home unless you had to get food. We were told you could leave to excercise but all parks, playgrounds, bars etc were closed. Couldn't even get home repairs done unless it was emergency. Other than locking the parks no one was getting arrested for being out but there really wasn't anywhere to go
People use the wrong language regardless, including the media. Nowhere was there a true “lockdown.”Right.
Language and word choice does matter. People hear Lockdown and they think welded in homes, and rebel against it. That language is very unlikely to be used again even if they go back to the same ruledeck.
Texas is unusual. The Rio Grande Valley is getting just hammered. Dallas is not, but hard to say. Even Houston looks like it's turning a corner now. There are still something like 60/250ish counties reporting no active cases at all.
There's reason to think there will be a regional approach used. It also takes the pressure off the governor, who isn't up for re-election but there's a chance he could get a bi-partisan recall/impeachment if things keep going poorly.
Exactly. Follow the strategies, be diligent, and the numbers will follow.We really, really need to stop fixating on the death rate. We’re not going to know for a long time, and that will be in retrospect.
We have plenty of data to suggest this is bad and will only get worse if we fail proven mitigation strategies.
The same phenomenon occurred when Naples and Ft. Myers opened their beaches in May, before the Miami-Dade and Broward beaches first opened. For the July 4th weekend, some coastal cities were better prepared for the influx from SE Florida and had residency restrictions, but I'm not sure how that went down.Closing Galveston beaches had the opposite effect. That pushed a higher density of people to Freeport beaches and to Texas City dyke. Those places had more people than normal on the July 4th weekend because Galveston closed it's beaches.
Yeah...but for everyone 1,000 clowns like you driving in the lefthand lane, we get am Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos. The not following along mindset does have some benefits.As I was driving back home this morning, I was thinking of our inability as a country to do the right thing as a whole and wear masks for the sake of others because it benefits society. I'm thinking this as someone is driving aimlessly in the left lane without regard to others and making people go around on the right.
Just seemed like an obvious parallel. Go to Europe, for example, and everyone drives on the right unless passing. It's just what everyone does, it works, and it's considerate. It works because everyone understands and follows along. Here, however, it's futile. So many just don't care and will cruise along in the left lane because it benefits them and being considerate of others doesn't really matter. And it only takes 1 person to affect a whole bunch of people on the road.
Just like masks.
Let's don't get carried away. When you return the shopping carts, you are cutting into employee man hours. Returning them just benefits big business while strewing them all over the place provides overtime hours for someone in need.That's a great parallel.
I would add returning shopping carts to their proper place as another
We did it for HIV, and it only required 30+ years and a bone marrow transplant!A cure for a novel virus is not realistic. Not in any of our lifetimes. Getting the fatality rate down to a flu is easily a victory.
I’m sure there’s a thread on this somewhere, but are you arguing being lazy with cart return is a noble act?Let's don't get carried away. When you return the shopping carts, you are cutting into employee man hours. Returning them just benefits big business while strewing them all over the place provides overtime hours for someone in need.
Really? Ours were hit/miss here....our neighborhood one was locked down....the town one was not. Splash pads were shut off though. It's a crapshoot everywhere you go and it really does impact conversation. It would do us all a world of good to understand how arbitrary the "rules" have been in all the various states (even within states for that matter) when having these discussions.Other examples are better I'm sure, but playgrounds have been locked here in Tampa since the beginning.
Not looking forward to the evacuate or stay situations that many of us will face this hurricane season.Florida is an utter **** show right now.
You don't buy the idea that a store pays overtime to employees to gather stray carts?I’m sure there’s a thread on this somewhere, but are you arguing being lazy with cart return is a noble act?
Do you litter to keep sanitation workers employed?
All city playgrounds were closed and the playsets were "roped off" with police caution tape from March to late May. Not exactly stopping anyone that chose to ignore it, but the message was clear. I didn't travel to other cities to see if they did the same.Really? Ours were hit/miss here....our neighborhood one was locked down....the town one was not. Splash pads were shut off though. It's a crapshoot everywhere you go and it really does impact conversation. It would do us all a world of good to understand how arbitrary the "rules" have been in all the various states (even within states for that matter) when having these discussions.
I don't understand the logic of closing beaches, it must be extremely hard to catch it in an outdoor location with breezes swirling around.The same phenomenon occurred when Naples and Ft. Myers opened their beaches in May, before the Miami-Dade and Broward beaches first opened. For the July 4th weekend, some coastal cities were better prepared for the influx from SE Florida and had residency restrictions, but I'm not sure how that went down.
In addition, I'm certain that more people attended large house parties as a result of the July 4th beach closures.
Let's not get carried away.
You non cart return folks are the bane of my existenceLet's don't get carried away. When you return the shopping carts, you are cutting into employee man hours. Returning them just benefits big business while strewing them all over the place provides overtime hours for someone in need.
And here I was assuming a bunch of people were being selfish a-holes by ignoring social distancing, mask wearing, etc.You don't buy the idea that a store pays overtime to employees to gather stray carts?
Agree that leadership and communication have been poor in many areas. As to beaches, there are generally concourses where people gather for concessions, bathrooms, beach showers, etc. Those areas are the issue, and even in RI they've been difficult b/c people aren't donning their masks when heading up to one, where masks are required.I don't understand the logic of closing beaches, it must be extremely hard to catch it in an outdoor location with breezes swirling around.
One of the most disappointing aspects of all this to me is that our public health leadership seems to give no better guidance on safe or unsafe activities than they did in March. We've certainly learned a ton by now about how it's transmitted, and should be able to give much more specific guidance about activities that are more or less safe. It would help tremendously in guiding which activities can open back up and which need to stay closed. Beaches are fine, bars need to be closed, should just be a no brainer. The lack of more detailed guidelines is another total leadership failure in all this.
We should really rethink a lot of things as we learn more about the transfer outside.I don't understand the logic of closing beaches, it must be extremely hard to catch it in an outdoor location with breezes swirling around.
One of the most disappointing aspects of all this to me is that our public health leadership seems to give no better guidance on safe or unsafe activities than they did in March. We've certainly learned a ton by now about how it's transmitted, and should be able to give much more specific guidance about activities that are more or less safe. It would help tremendously in guiding which activities can open back up and which need to stay closed. Beaches are fine, bars need to be closed, should just be a no brainer. The lack of more detailed guidelines is another total leadership failure in all this.
It’s frustrating because they split up the test conducted but not the positives. But you can still get a good idea of the rate. Today’s numbers were:Anti-body testing shouldn't be in their numbers. You can't really understand their rate of infection if being modified by people who were infected and have since recovered and have anti-bodies.
Aren't you supposed to just go in the ocean?Re: beaches, I've heard that the beach itself isn't the problem, but rather the few restrooms available to people, forcing closer, more contained contact. I dunno.
That is what I do, but I am not too embarrassed by floaters.Aren't you supposed to just go in the ocean?
But if you only close 1/3 of the beaches it just makes the open beaches more crowded. Terrible leadership in Texas, either close them all or none.Re: beaches, I've heard that the beach itself isn't the problem, but rather the few restrooms available to people, forcing closer, more contained contact. I dunno.
Good lord - we're doomed. It was a run.Ohio state rep says "STOP GETTING TESTED!" . This is the same rep that said wearing a mask dishonors God.
Here is the link about masks dishonoring God. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ohio-lawmaker-refuses-wear-mask-because-he-says-it-dishonors-n1201106Good lord - we're doomed. It was a run.
Pro tip: You can frame some other sap if you hold your breath, go under water, poop, then quickly swim away under water. Can't have those pesky mesh bathing suit inserts intact, though.That is what I do, but I am not too embarrassed by floaters.
Aren't you supposed to just go in the ocean?
And then a big, brown shark caaaammmee!!! - Eddie MurphyThat is what I do, but I am not too embarrassed by floaters.
I don't think it works like that. The county controls the beaches, except where there is a state park involved. Some beaches are private and i have zero idea how those are managed.But if you only close 1/3 of the beaches it just makes the open beaches more crowded. Terrible leadership in Texas, either close them all or none.
That is how it worked in the Houston area last weekend, Galveston closed it's beaches however all of the other beaches in the Houston area remained open with a higher density of people.I don't think it works like that. The county controls the beaches, except where there is a state park involved. Some beaches are private and i have zero idea how those are managed.