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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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1 hour ago, MTskibum said:

But why are you trying to derive a mortality rate from number's that everyone knows is wrong. 

I would say that the death rate based on reported cases is a valuable stat.

We know the true mortality rate is probably 1%. But that includes a lot of people that never even knew they were sick, or that they even had it.

While that’s good for them (if we assume they are now immune), it’s not the true risk for a person that develops a serious case of covid, gets tested and is confirmed with the virus.

Bottom line, if you get really sick and test positive, your chances of death aren’t 1%. They are significantly higher, because you can’t include all the asymptomatic in your risk profile, because you’ve already moved to a far more serious stage than the asymptomatic are in, thus your risk is higher.

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16 minutes ago, shader said:

I would say that the death rate based on reported cases is a valuable stat.

We know the true mortality rate is probably 1%. But that includes a lot of people that never even knew they were sick, or that they even had it.

While that’s good for them (if we assume they are now immune), it’s not the true risk for a person that develops a serious case of covid, gets tested and is confirmed with the virus.

Bottom line, if you get really sick and test positive, your chances of death aren’t 1%. They are significantly higher, because you can’t include all the asymptomatic in your risk profile, because you’ve already moved to a far more serious stage than the asymptomatic are in, thus your risk is higher.

What? 

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4 minutes ago, jobarules said:

What? 

I thought he explained it pretty well, but another way to think of the same thing...

100 people have Covid.

20 of those people get sick enough to get tested and test positive.

A total of 1 person dies.

1% of the people who have Covid died.

5% of the people who tested positive for Covid died.

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Just now, zoobird said:

I thought he explained it pretty well, but another way to think of the same thing...

100 people have Covid.

20 of those people get sick enough to get tested and test positive.

A total of 1 person dies.

1% of the people who have Covid died.

5% of the people who tested positive for Covid died.

Its a dumb way to think of things because there are tons of asymptomatic people who are testing positive. Not only sick people are getting tested.

 

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14 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Hey guys, the death rate for Covid is 100% if you don't survive.

It's not necessary to be a #### here. If you couldn't understand the point being made, that's on you. 

Someone experiencing a rough dry cough and having difficulty breathing shouldn't be going around saying "this isn't a big deal, my chance of dying is only 1%".

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5 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Actually they appear to be succeeding in treating patients and saving lives.  Should know in the next month if that’s the case or not. W

I hope so. What are your thoughts on tocilizumab?

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59 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I feel like I follow this super close, I watch the major youtube channels, follow the reddit subs, and look at the international coverage and I have NO ####### IDEA what PPE is effective or necessary to go get a 12 oz. ribeye.

To go get a ribeye from a grocery store, or to go get a ribeye and eat in at a restaurant?

For grocery and retail use, cloth earloop masks or equivalent (like paper surgical masks) are all that is needed for source control. "Source control" meaning "preventing your breathed-out aerosols from spreading around indoors". Efficacy of these masks also assumes you can shop while maintaining social distance almost the entire time -- a few to several quick "excuse me" passings-by aren't a problem.

At no point were fit-tested N95s or filtered respirators considered necessary for personal errands, though they will handle source control just fine. But medical PPE is more than you need, will cost more, and will typically be more of a PITA to source.

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4 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I've lost track of what our goal is with all this.

We started with "flattening the curve" with the goal of helping our healthcare industry ramp up to deal with it. Are we still doing that? How prepared are they and/or how much more time is necessary to buy?

Has our goal shifted to preventing it from spreading it at all? Or are we now in "delay until we have a vaccine" mode? 

What are we actually trying to do?

What do you think the goal should be?

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19 minutes ago, RUSF18 said:

It's not necessary to be a #### here.

You just confused a bunch of FBGs...

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Posted (edited)

 

42 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Hey guys, the death rate for Covid is 100% if you don't survive.

I have no idea what point you’re trying to make?

Edited by shader

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3 hours ago, cubd8 said:

That's correct - on Father's Day. However, yesterday, I was in direct contact of my father who was exposed to my sister/husband 1 week earlier, for about 2 hours in an enclosed area with no masks.

Then you don’t need to be tested. Look at my other post up thread.

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5 minutes ago, shader said:

 

I have no idea what point you’re trying to make?

he’s inadvertently highlighting the flaws in the ignore feature

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Some good news:

Arizona Governor Ducey issues executive order to close bars, gyms, movie theaters, and water parks due to COVID-19

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2 minutes ago, shader said:

Some good news:

Arizona Governor Ducey issues executive order to close bars, gyms, movie theaters, and water parks due to COVID-19

Are masks mandatory? That is the one HUGE flaw in the Texas strategy that greatly reduces it's effectiveness.

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51 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Its a dumb way to think of things because there are tons of asymptomatic people who are testing positive. Not only sick people are getting tested.

 

Are there tons though? I don't know the answer but it seems that most of the asymptomatic people testing positive are athletes and protestors. Who are all these other people that were treated just cause they wanted to be tested?

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3 minutes ago, shader said:

Some good news:

Arizona Governor Ducey issues executive order to close bars, gyms, movie theaters, and water parks due to COVID-19

Yeah looks like they took it a step further but imagine that the closing will continue to expand in the next couple weeks. Previously some of the bars/breweries were able to open sooner if they offer food or have a partnership with a restaurant to provide food, we’ll see if that means anything here.

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5 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

Are masks mandatory? That is the one HUGE flaw in the Texas strategy that greatly reduces it's effectiveness.

He left it up to the counties and cities and most put in a mandate.

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22 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

I hope so. What are your thoughts on tocilizumab?

Roche Holdings?

I don't know much about it.  It missed my covid cure plays, but I was definitely taking a shotgun approach to this.  At least it's comforting that so many people are work on Covid treatments.

 

Do you know anything about the billions we were supposed sending to ASTRAZENECA?

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14 minutes ago, shader said:

Some good news:

Arizona Governor Ducey issues executive order to close bars, gyms, movie theaters, and water parks due to COVID-19

This state is ####ed. I was up in Prescott Saturday. They had a bluegrass festival in the town square and there were hundreds of people there. I counted maybe 10 with masks on, and that's being generous. I was going to video it and post it, but I thought better of it.

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8 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

He left it up to the counties and cities and most put in a mandate.

That's what Texas mayors requested. Abbott denied them. Guy can't help dicking up his state.

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Just now, kutta said:

This state is ####ed. I was up in Prescott Saturday. They had a bluegrass festival in the town square and there were hundreds of people there. I counted maybe 10 with masks on, and that's being generous. I was going to video it and post it, but I thought better of it.

One of the first places that said no to a mask mandate, not surprising.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

According to Worldometer, the world has a death rate of 4.90% for those infected (506,150 out of 10,337,208).  USA has a death rate of 4.84% for those infected (128,592 out of 2,656,762).

Our states that were hit early (NY, NJ, CT, etc.) have a death rate of anywhere between 7-9%.  Our states that are in the news now (AZ, FL, TX) currently sit at 1-2%.  Does anyone think their death rates will approach the early states?

Only if the hospitals are overwhelmed. I give changes in management/therapeutics some credit, but healthcare resources are the single most important variable IMO. I don’t think there is enough evidence to support the virus mutating to wimpier version.

ETA As others have commented, testing availability makes those comparisons fairly meaningless.

 

Edited by Terminalxylem
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San Antonio doctors at our largest hospital just held a press conference to say that, despite what numbers are being touted, COVID patients are being forced to wait in the ER waiting room because there are no beds to put them in. Not confidence inspiring.

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7 minutes ago, kutta said:

This state is ####ed. I was up in Prescott Saturday. They had a bluegrass festival in the town square and there were hundreds of people there. I counted maybe 10 with masks on, and that's being generous. I was going to video it and post it, but I thought better of it.

I was just in a dollar general. Signs about masks every where. I was the only one in there with a mask and yes that includes the employees. Last time I go to that store.

 

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Don’t expect to see big increaseS in cases in AZ like in Florida anytime soon. Quest Labs does about 80% of the tests in Arizona and they’re unable to increase their daily capacity leaving daily tests maxed at 15,000 and cases in the 3000-4000 range. Unless something changes or % positives increase, new positives will remain consistent but test results will be very backlogged.

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2 hours ago, TheWinz said:

You can say you are correcting me all you want, but you ain't.  When I post numbers that aren't from a website, then you can correct me.

Hey Winz,

Do you have the concrete data on the death count in CT vs AZ, TX and FL? I know you have posted stuff similar, was wondering where you find that information, thanks. 

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2 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

Regardless of the actual percentages, I wouldn't be surprised that death rates are running lower than before for a few reasons.  First, the medical profession has learned a lot, I'm sure, about how to deal with cases as they occur.  Second, retirement homes were hit hard early on, which led to many deaths from those who were most susceptible, and I have to think states are being more cautious now with those facilities.  Third, the precautions being taken (such as masks) might help to limit the spread to the unsuspecting (e.g., contact with the elderly) who are at greater risk of death.  Whether the death rates have truly come down or if they've always been more modest than first appeared, that's some good news.  That said, I really don't want to come down with this nasty virus.  

I was reading 40-45%+ of the deaths occurred in nursing homes which when you combine that with Florida probably having one of the largest numbers of nursing homes of any State, it is odd that there are not more deaths in Florida. Is it possible Florida will catch up?  

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3 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Hey Winz,

Do you have the concrete data on the death count in CT vs AZ, TX and FL? I know you have posted stuff similar, was wondering where you find that information, thanks. 

Press conference that Ducey had in Az gave a website but I did not write it down.

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18 minutes ago, prosopis said:

I was just in a dollar general. Signs about masks every where. I was the only one in there with a mask and yes that includes the employees. Last time I go to that store.

 

and all I wanted was some red vines. I will be pist if I got covid buying licorice for my fat ###.

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On 6/25/2020 at 7:19 PM, matuski said:

So many beds.

What's the word? 

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28 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

San Antonio doctors at our largest hospital just held a press conference to say that, despite what numbers are being touted, COVID patients are being forced to wait in the ER waiting room because there are no beds to put them in. Not confidence inspiring.

Houston is not looking good either, we are back to 1 trip to a grocery store a week at a slow time and washing our groceries. It really does suck to wash groceries, and I am unsure what benefit it provides, however I will take that precaution right now.

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Ministry of Pain said:


I was reading 40-45%+ of the deaths occurred in nursing homes which when you combine that with Florida probably having one of the largest numbers of nursing homes of any State, it is odd that there are not more deaths in Florida. Is it possible Florida will catch up?


Florida will undoubtedly see a spike in nursing home deaths, but it's unlikely to be as bad as it was in the northeast in April, if only because we know more about the virus today than we did then.
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CA is a mess. Path towards complete shutdown. Beaches, bars and more. All-time record of cases today and every metric up. Hospitalizations, ICU beds - you name it  

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2 hours ago, culdeus said:

Another item that seems criminal from a policy perspective, the CDC should have a very comprehensive Wiki about masking and face shields and gloves.  

Tell us what to use when, and how.  

Grade the PPE on some level and allow Amazon to highlight where they meet certain grades of PPE.

This would allow schools to say you must be this tall to ride this ride.  

I feel like I follow this super close, I watch the major youtube channels, follow the reddit subs, and look at the international coverage and I have NO ####### IDEA what PPE is effective or necessary to go get a 12 oz. ribeye.

My relatively informed opinion on this topic:

The average person, with average exposure risk, should wear a face covering of some sort when indoors with other people, and outdoors if unable to maintain social distancing. They should fit snugly over the mouth and nose, with the metal band up and molded over the bridge of the nose. While N95+ are better than surgical are better than cloth masks, the general public doesn't need the high-end masks for source control, which is the primary goal of masks. Most surgical masks are intended to be single use, as moisture from your breath degrades them over time, but a reused mask is better than nothing. When donning and doffing the mask, consider the outer surface contaminated, so minimize contact with it and sanitize your hands after handling.

The general public doesn't need face shields or goggles, but they probably incrementally decrease risk a small amount.

Gloves aren't needed for regular interactions (ie. not involving potential exposure to infected body fluids) either, as hand washing works just as well, provided you're doing it right - 20+ seconds warm water + soap, paying attention to cleanse the entire hand/fingers/nails/etc. Hand sanitizer is a decent surrogate while on-the-go, but avoid methanol-based cleansers, as they can be absorbed through the skin.

Everybody should practice good cough hygiene (cough into inner elbow, away from others) and be extra diligent about hand hygiene when touching high use surfaces. And avoid crowded areas/events for the foreseeable future.

Kids won't likely follow any of these rules, so I don't think the people contemplating limiting school openings are idiots by any means. I know some parents are at wits end, but that doesn't change our risk appraisal when considering our course of action.

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18 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

CA is a mess. Path towards complete shutdown. Beaches, bars and more. All-time record of cases today and every metric up. Hospitalizations, ICU beds - you name it  

Based on this, won't NY follow as they begin to open up?

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1 hour ago, shader said:

 

I have no idea what point you’re trying to make?

Yes you do. He’s using your logic against you and you act obtuse now? 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, jobarules said:

Its a dumb way to think of things because there are tons of asymptomatic people who are testing positive. Not only sick people are getting tested.

No, it's not, as you'll likely never know the full picture wrt asymptomatic infection. It's the difference between case fatality and infection fatality rates, with the former being cited far more frequently when infectious disease mortality is discussed - not just COVID-19.

If you get admitted to the ICU and placed on a ventilator, and your family asks "what are his chances?", how do you think the doctor should respond?

Edited by Terminalxylem

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

Roche Holdings?

I don't know much about it.  It missed my covid cure plays, but I was definitely taking a shotgun approach to this.  At least it's comforting that so many people are work on Covid treatments.

 

Do you know anything about the billions we were supposed sending to ASTRAZENECA?

No idea. I'm a healthcare professional, not a day trader.

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3 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

 

1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

Roche Holdings?

I don't know much about it.  It missed my covid cure plays, but I was definitely taking a shotgun approach to this.  At least it's comforting that so many people are work on Covid treatments.

 

Do you know anything about the billions we were supposed sending to ASTRAZENECA?

No idea. I'm a healthcare professional, not a day trader.

 

Care to share your thoughts on tocilizumab as a healthcare professional?

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5 hours ago, shader said:

"Everyone getting it" is not a valid option.  That's not what they're doing in China, and that's not what they are doing in Europe.  No country should strive for herd immunity.  If they hit herd immunity, that means they failed to stop the virus.

If you can get the numbers down low enough, you can actually track active cases.  That makes it much easier to manage the spread.

I don't think anyone thinks we can completely eliminate the virus until a vaccine hits.  But we should be able to get the numbers low enough where some semblance of normal life can be reached.

But this is just my opinion.  I'm a nobody.   You're original point is basically correct.  There is no plan, at least in this country.

What number is “low enough”?  What measures need to be taken to get there?  How long will it take it to get there?

i know that no one has the “right” answer, I’m just curious of your rough estimate on this.  Because I think to really know what to do, we need at least some rough estimate to shoot for.

 

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Posted (edited)

Mayor of SA just did his daily COVID brief. Our second straight week of ICU and Ventilator patients doubling in a seven day period. DOUBLING in SEVEN days. Abbott has announced a press conference tomorrow. I pray it is for him to announce that he is going to do what needs to be done. If he doesn't allow cities to mandate masks and back that up with the power to fine and punish individuals, it will be for nothing.

Edited by DallasDMac
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1 hour ago, Joe Summer said:

 


Florida will undoubtedly see a spike in nursing home deaths, but it's unlikely to be as bad as it was in the northeast in April, if only because we know more about the virus today than we did then.

That's what I'm thinking as well ...they know nursing homes are "hot spots," and can take precautions.

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44 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

My relatively informed opinion on this topic:

The average person, with average exposure risk, should wear a face covering of some sort when indoors with other people, and outdoors if unable to maintain social distancing. They should fit snugly over the mouth and nose, with the metal band up and molded over the bridge of the nose. While N95+ are better than surgical are better than cloth masks, the general public doesn't need the high-end masks for source control, which is the primary goal of masks.

Re: the bolded — few home-brew face coverings have metal bands like this. I associate those more with true PPE (medical, hazardous material, construction, etc).

Culdeus might get to thinking “Wait — does my face covering NEED a metal band to do any good?” So far as I’m aware, the answer is “No, a metal band is not required for an adequate source-control face covering.”

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Oh, one bit of good news. My FIL who is in a home tested negative for CORONA, but did have mild pneumonia. He is out of quarantine and back in his room this evening.

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Based on this, won't NY follow as they begin to open up?

NY appears to be putting the brakes on opening up.

And they are in very different situations. In all this time, CA has never gotten below 4% positivity. Ever.  4 is pretty solid. Same range many of the "doing pretty well" states are now that are opening up. Sort of like FL was on Memorial Day.

But NY has been below 2% for nearly an entire month now, and is hovering around 1% now. It's a pretty big difference. They seem to have it "under control" in a way that's not comparable to other states.

Now, what you mention.....what happens to NY when the do open up? That is the trillion dollar question. I don't know what happens. But I'll say that if NY keeps the clamps down another week or so, keeps crushing it, then opens up and all hell breaks loose, that will be so demoralizing. 

 

Edited by pollardsvision

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19 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

What number is “low enough”?  What measures need to be taken to get there?  How long will it take it to get there?

i know that no one has the “right” answer, I’m just curious of your rough estimate on this.  Because I think to really know what to do, we need at least some rough estimate to shoot for.

 

I'm totally with you.  We definitely need a rough estimate to shoot for.  Fortunately we have an entire world full of success stories. I'd find countries that got it right, and come up with a similar "per capita" number that will work for the USA as a goal to shoot for. Or maybe as a goal for individual states to shoot for.  

We know lockdowns and quarantines work.  We know that if they happen long enough and are followed by mask usage (europe/japan/SK/China) and contact tracing, numbers can stay low for a significant period of time after the initial wave.

We also know that NO COUNTRY has yet won this battle.  Some are winning, but it takes vigilance.  As good as Germany is doing for example, if they got lackadaisical, the virus would come roaring back.   But I'd rather be in Germany than the USA right now.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Judge Smails said:

CA is a mess. Path towards complete shutdown. Beaches, bars and more. All-time record of cases today and every metric up. Hospitalizations, ICU beds - you name it  

There are a lot of areas on a path towards a complete shutdown.  It's just a matter of time.  Really sad to see it get to this point so soon, but here we are.

Some states will experiment with stopgap measures they they hope will slow the spread, but reality will bite them and then they will shut down.  

Edited by shader

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NYC is the test case for an actual second wave. 

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14 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Re: the bolded — few home-brew face coverings have metal bands like this. I associate those more with true PPE (medical, hazardous material, construction, etc).

Culdeus might get to thinking “Wait — does my face covering NEED a metal band to do any good?” So far as I’m aware, the answer is “No, a metal band is not required for an adequate source-control face covering.”

Sure. I guess I'm giving Culdeus too much credit.

But people are making this far more complicated than necessary.

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