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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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8 minutes ago, Kal El said:

The problem is that you're correctly assuming that there are undiagnosed cases out there. However, since we cannot know exactly how many cases there are because of that very premise, we are forced to run the numbers we do have. We know it's not 7%, but we don't know what it actually is.

I agree we don't know exact rate but we do know it is not 7%.  I have not seen anyone actual state that it is 7% and even the place he is pulling that info from says it is an overstatement.  What is misleading is to compare one state at over 7% with massive under reporting and to another state at 1.5% and suggest there are improved outcomes at the state reporting 1.5%. That is an incorrect statement.   I am posting his actual statement below, which is complete mess of useless information.  He has been posting this same line for several weeks now.   

 

If I lived in NY I wouldn't be vacationing in NJ.  NY's death rate per positive case is only 7.55%, but NJ sits at 8.57%.  I'd steer clear of CT also (9.32%), but I hear Texas is nice this time of year (1.53%).

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4 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

I agree we don't know exact rate but we do know it is not 7%.  I have not seen anyone actual state that it is 7% and even the place he is pulling that info from says it is an overstatement.  What is misleading is to compare one state at over 7% with massive under reporting and to another state at 1.5% and suggest there are improved outcomes at the state reporting 1.5%. That is an incorrect statement.   I am posting his actual statement below, which is complete mess of useless information.  He has been posting this same line for several weeks now.   

 

If I lived in NY I wouldn't be vacationing in NJ.  NY's death rate per positive case is only 7.55%, but NJ sits at 8.57%.  I'd steer clear of CT also (9.32%), but I hear Texas is nice this time of year (1.53%).

Dallas county is sitting at .23% lower than even Korea so take that!

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Statewide mask order in Kansas. Indoors and anywhere outdoors where social distancing can't be maintained. 

I run a rec commission. Basically like a YMCA. All but gonna shut down our fitness centers, rec centers and summer camps down.

Nice job America.   

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1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

Statewide mask order in Kansas. Indoors and anywhere outdoors where social distancing can't be maintained. 

I run a rec commission. Basically like a YMCA. All but gonna shut down our fitness centers, rec centers and summer camps down.

Nice job America.   

Sorry to hear that will shut things down.

We collectively didn't do this right. More shutdowns and pauses will be coming.

Priorities are all screwed up in this country. We need to do all of these mitigation factors so kids can go back to school, not so 20-somethings can go party at the bar. I'm already hearing from local school administrators on Long Island that school in-person ain't happening. And we have some of the best virus numbers in the country.

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Son trying to get a test.  No clinics with open appointments for the next 2 days.  Government testing facility (Nissan Stadium) has a literal 2 mile line.

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Oklahoma with 585 new cases today.  First day over 500.  Also a new 7-day record.  

So glad Tulsa had a rally last week in a 1/3 full indoor arena.  (My opinion, the spikes from that event are starting to show in today's numbers.)

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14 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

No bueno. My understanding is that staffing is a much bigger issue than beds. When they start triaging care that’s when the deaths will increase significantly. More push for people to sign DNR/DNIs, more people being sent home with oxygen rather than getting hospital care and more push for hospice care. It’s getting depressing really quick.

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JaxBill said:


One area that Florida has done very well in comparison to other states is nursing home containment. Not only did DeSantis block hospitals from returning positive patients to nursing homes but he also had National Guard strike forces that continue to visit nursing homes throughout the state, inspecting and testing employees and caregivers.

Additionally the state has set up several regional long term care facilities for nursing home patients that test positive but don't require hospitalization. This way they can be safely isolated.


I am concerned about what would happen if hospitals in Florida start to fill up like they did in the northeast. If hospitals are blocked from returning positive patients to nursing home, will that mean that younger patients will be denied admission to the hospital?

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3 hours ago, beer 30 said:

And how many people from NY are heading out to the Sunbelt states for vacations now? Or really anywhere, doesn't have to be NY. I know they are shutting down beaches & bars but it's not across the board. If you can't go to FL, head to GA or SC. Here in SC, it's hit or miss on mask adherence, dine-in is happening and graduation parties are in full swing. Some are taking it seriously but most are moving on.

 

2 hours ago, shader said:

You literally said that travelers shouldn't go to Florida and should instead go to SC.  If you're in the North, stay in the North.  Coming south is a bad idea.

You're right, poorly worded on my part. The point I was trying to make was Even with FL getting in line and shutting down beaches before the holiday, you only need to go a couple of states up and hit the beaches that are not shut down. You're just moving the herd from one area to another.

If ALL the states don't get in line with this, you can have areas like NY that suffered horribly, shut down longer than most, mandated masks and are just now sticking their head above the foxhole but it won't matter a bit if a chunk of the population heads south then comes home with more than a sand crab as a souvenir.

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Posted (edited)

CNBC: Dr. Anthony Fauci says new virus in China has traits of 2009 swine flu and 1918 pandemic flu

CNN: China researchers discover new swine flu with 'pandemic potential'  - why does this sound like a threat to me?

 

New York Times: Scientists Say New Strain of Swine Flu Virus Is Spreading to Humans in China 
A new study warns that the strain of H1N1, common on China’s pig farms since 2016, should be “urgently” controlled to avoid another pandemic.

HONG KONG — A new strain of the H1N1 swine flu virus is spreading silently in workers on pig farms in China and should be “urgently” controlled to avoid another pandemic, a team of scientists says in a new study.

H1N1 is highly transmissible and spread around the world in 2009, killing about 285,000 people and morphing into seasonal flu.

The newer strain, known as G4 EA H1N1, has been common on China’s pig farms since 2016 and replicates efficiently in human airways, according to the study published on Monday. So far, it has infected some people without causing disease, but health experts fear that could change without warning.

“G4 viruses have all the essential hallmarks of a candidate pandemic virus,” the study said, adding that controlling the spread in pigs and closely monitoring human populations “should be urgently implemented.”

The study, published online in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is based on the surveillance of pigs in 10 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2018. In the last three years of the study, researchers collected 338 blood samples from workers on 15 pig farms and 230 from people in nearby households.

The study found that 10.4 percent of the workers and 4.4 percent of the others tested positive for G4 EA H1N1, and that workers between the ages of 18 and 35 tested positive at a higher rate: 20.5 percent. 

Li-Min Huang, director of the Division of Pediatric Infectious Disease s at National Taiwan University Hospital, said that a crucial next step would be finding out whether any of the infected workers at the pig farms had contracted the virus from humans, as well as whether any had spread the virus to their families.

“It’s a very important study, and the virus looks quite dangerous,” Dr. Huang said. “We need to be worried about any disease with the potential to spread human to human.”

Eurasian variations of H1N1 have been circulating in pigs in Europe and Asia for decades, the study said, but the incidence of G4 viruses in farmed Chinese pigs with respiratory symptoms began rising sharply after 2014.

Recent evidence “indicates that G4 EA H1N1 virus is a growing problem in pig farms, and the widespread circulation of G4 viruses in pigs inevitably increases their exposure to humans,” it said.

Predicting risk is not a precise science, but close attention to the virus would be advisable, said Ian H. Brown, the head of the virology department at Britain’s Animal and Plant Health Agency and one of two scientists who reviewed the paper before it was published.

“It may be that with further change in the virus it could become more aggressive in people much as SARS-CoV-2 has done,” Dr. Brown said in an email on Tuesday, referring to the new coronavirus.

The study was sent for review in early December, weeks before the coronavirus outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan began making global headlines.

The study was a collaboration among government agencies in China, including the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as the World Health Organization, scientists from several universities in China and the University of Nottingham in Britain. Dr. Brown teaches at the University of Nottingham but was not involved in the research.

The H1N1 virus that caused a pandemic in 2009 had a relatively low fatality rate, estimated at 0.02 percent. By contrast, the fatality rate of the 1918 flu pandemic was about 2.5 percent of its victims. But that virus killed an estimated 50 million, perhaps more, because it infected so many people and spread at a time when medical care was cruder.

Determining the fatality rate of the new coronavirus is a key question for epidemiologists, but one they may not be able to answer until the pandemic has ended.

Edited by bradyfan
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Florida today

+6,093 cases. Apparently 41,672 tests done.  14.4% positive rate.

Median age : 40

I haven’t been tracking the median age in Florida, but during one of the big days last week, it was 34.  The fact that it will rise is no surprise.  You can’t hide older people from this virus.

 

Anecdotal reading of the Florida subreddit paints the picture of a state that is beginning to run into a big testing problem.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Redwes25 said:

but I hear Texas is nice this time of year

94 degrees and 55% humidity in North Texas right now. My city has been running 13% positive since June 12. Currently death rate is 0.63%.

Edited by Dezbelief

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

 


I am concerned about what would happen if hospitals in Florida start to fill up like they did in the northeast. If hospitals are blocked from returning positive patients to nursing home, will that mean that younger patients will be denied admission to the hospital?

My city plans to use hotels as Covid wards if necessary. Florida had some kind of similar plan, I forgot what exactly. 

Edited by Dezbelief

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2 hours ago, Redwes25 said:

Oh, I just forgot to type "per positive case", but hey, that was like 22 hours ago.  My more recent posts are worded correctly, and therefore are 100% accurate and not misleading at all.

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1 hour ago, Biff84 said:

No bueno. My understanding is that staffing is a much bigger issue than beds. When they start triaging care that’s when the deaths will increase significantly. More push for people to sign DNR/DNIs, more people being sent home with oxygen rather than getting hospital care and more push for hospice care. It’s getting depressing really quick.

One issue that I'm hearing anecdotally, is that it takes more staff to care for one ICU Covid patient than even a bypass patient.  There are specialists required for all the equipment, and you can have three MD at one time treating (anesthesia, pulmonary, cardio) each with their own PA, and ICU nurse.  

My (PA) friend that's a nurse has kids at home and was working weekends on 12 hour shifts but has been doing double 14s (4x14hrs) for months in the Presby system.  

That doesn't seem sustainable outside the big cities with big medical staffs.

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2 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Statewide mask order in Kansas. Indoors and anywhere outdoors where social distancing can't be maintained. 

Should be that way nation-wide.

2 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

We collectively didn't do this right. More shutdowns and pauses will be coming.

Sure looks that way.

2 hours ago, Keerock said:

Government testing facility (Nissan Stadium) has a literal 2 mile line.

Ridiculous.

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3 hours ago, moleculo said:

I think this was an act of Congress, not an EO.  But yes, Congress could help here as well; they certainly take cues from POTUS.

Yep, like I originally said 4 people could quickly make this happen. If Trump, McConnell, Biden and Pelosi all got together and said we have to pass a federal mask law ASAP and stressed to their constituents and party members the importance of it, this issue could be handled in a couple days. 

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Connecticut's numbers are amazing.  I am waiting for today's stats, but as of yesterday:

Deaths - 4, bringing total to 4,320
In the single digits the last 4 days, and 10 of the last 15.  During this span, we have averaged less than 8 deaths per day.  To put these numbers into perspective, in May we averaged 52, and in April we averaged 72.

Hospitalizations - down to 99 statewide
The last time we were in double digits was back on 24 March.  From the max of 1972 on 22 April, we are sitting at 5% of that.  Look at our hospitalization decrease each of the last 2 weeks:
29 June = 99, 15 June = 203, 1 June = 454, 18 May = 920, 4 May = 1464

Testing & positives - 59 out of 6,354 yesterday = 0.9% positivity
CT is the only state with a 50% decrease in positives over the last 2 weeks.  We have been under 2% every day during this time.

Update - Today's numbers are in, and they are even amazinger.  Only 2 deaths, 1 less hospitalization, and the lowest positivity ever (152 out of 21,416 = 0.71%)

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Posted (edited)

Interesting Twitter thread from the Managing Partner and General Counsel for a company that owns 13 emergency care clinics in Texas...

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1277773122301804546/photo/1

Synopsis...

  • testing a much broader spectrum of people than back in March/April
  • most people being tested now as well as those testing positive have either mild or no symptoms (opposite of March/ April)
  • the people coming in now to be tested are either at their employer's request or simply just curious
  • these people are not ending up in the ICU (more positives does not translate to ICU or even hospitalization at the same rate as March/April)
  • discharge planners are being pressured to list Covid-19 as primary diagnosis because the funding is better for that diagnosis

One final thing...

2 WEEKS!!!!

Edited by Mr Anonymous
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5 hours ago, moleculo said:

Agreed, but I'm not holding my breath.  That would require him to publicly change his mind - something i don't think he's ever admitted to doing.

Agree

Not happening unfortunately 

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Posted (edited)

Not sure if all NY numbers are in but only 3 deaths today.

12 yesterday.

 

 

eta: I see that's taken down now. Must have been a mistake.

Edited by jamny

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been avoiding this thread completely, and basically blinding/deafening myself to this whole thing as much as i can (which has been easy w only 10ppl working in my office, down from the usual 120-140, and jst staying home)

really hope things improve for you guys down there. really sad to hear it. 

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35 minutes ago, jamny said:

Not sure if all NY numbers are in but only 3 deaths today.

12 yesterday.

 

 

eta: I see that's taken down now. Must have been a mistake.

I know here in WNY, we had 0 deaths over the weekend. And only 21 positives. 

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Lost the 30 year old last night 😥

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Posted (edited)
On 6/29/2020 at 2:20 PM, NotSmart said:

:goodposting:

This isn't just a legit question, it's also an important one that needs to be defined.

I look forward to hopefully several replies to this question; I'll give my thoughts later tonight when I have more time.

This has been one of my biggest questions for a couple of weeks now. We can make reasonable arguments for any of several approaches, but it does seem we need to pick one and stick with it.

 

Personal opinion: keep everything open and moving again, except for tight indoor spaces (bars, sit in restaurants), mandatory masking with FINES/ENFORCEMENT to keep it relatively slow until there's a vaccine. a few extra steps to protect the elderly in nursing homes.

Edited by renesauz
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1 hour ago, jamny said:

Not sure if all NY numbers are in but only 3 deaths today.

12 yesterday.

 

 

eta: I see that's taken down now. Must have been a mistake.

I am shocked our numbers are so low. 2 weeks after phase 3 starts will be the biggest test. 

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2 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I am shocked our numbers are so low. 2 weeks after phase 3 starts will be the biggest test. 

Like I said in the edit, they must have been in the middle of something and those numbers aren't right.

 

Still, 32 yesterday and 13 today is incredible.

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I have a live, in-person job interview on Thursday.  My plan is to roll up in my mask of course, but I'm anxious to see how the company approaches it (will they be in masks, no handshaking, will we all be 6 feet apart, etc etc.).

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Statewide mask order in Kansas. Indoors and anywhere outdoors where social distancing can't be maintained. 

I run a rec commission. Basically like a YMCA. All but gonna shut down our fitness centers, rec centers and summer camps down.

Nice job America.   

You see Kobach's response? Dude might be the biggest clown in American politics, which is really saying something. Please vote this November Kansans. 

edit: sorry to hear about the impact on you personally. That's awful. Hang in there. 

Edited by Moe.
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Posted (edited)

Florida could be a test case of the first area in the world that literally does nothing in the face of covid-19.

https://www.axios.com/florida-coronavirus-desantis-3fe9b6c4-532b-4b2f-bf20-391e586abd2d.html
 

Of course I’m half joking, they will shut down eventually. But every week they delay compounds the situation.

Edited by shader

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57 minutes ago, eoMMan said:

I have a live, in-person job interview on Thursday.  My plan is to roll up in my mask of course, but I'm anxious to see how the company approaches it (will they be in masks, no handshaking, will we all be 6 feet apart, etc etc.).

Why is it in person? Minor red flag if it were me. 

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On 6/29/2020 at 3:16 PM, shader said:

So let me get this straight.  Talking about case counts is fear mongering, but saying that most everyone will get this thing is not?

To me, your statement is 100X more "negative" than anything I've ever posted in this thread.

That should never be the goal.  But hey, if that's what you think is going to happen, I'm fine with that perspective.  You definitely could be right.  But I see far too many success stories all across the world to concede herd immunity.  

early on, there were estimates stating 50-70% of the population would contract it at some point without interventions. The STATED goals of the interventions early on were to flatten the curve, not to prevent that 50%+. Europe's success could have (and probably should have) made us shift those goals to something far less dramatic in terms of #s of infected while we wait on a vaccine. The problem is that far too few folks in National leadership roles have articulated any kind of cohesive strategy, and too many people are too resistant to any strategy at all without that strong national leadership.

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49 minutes ago, shader said:

Florida could be a test case of the first area in the world that literally does nothing in the face of covid-19.

https://www.axios.com/florida-coronavirus-desantis-3fe9b6c4-532b-4b2f-bf20-391e586abd2d.html
 

Of course I’m half joking, they will shut down eventually. But every week they delay compounds the situation.

umm he did close the bars. Most municipalities have instituted mask policies.  In his press conferences he has recommended masks but leaving it to the counties to determine.

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On 6/29/2020 at 4:14 PM, TheWinz said:

No, I will not stop!  You ain't my mom, so don't talk to me like you are.  I am posting actual numbers from Worldometer.  If you have a problem with me posting actual numbers from the website that most everyone has been using, take it up with them. 

You're being childish, because he's absolutely correct...the data is misleading and your stubborn insistence on repeating that data is, while factually correct, incredibly (intentionally?) misleading. IN the earlier days, people who weren't sick enough for a hospital bed weren't even tested. It's foolish to compare Texas/Arizona death rates today to those of NYC in March

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10 hours ago, TheWinz said:

One out of every 587 residents of New Jersey has died from COVID.  Extrapolate that to the US and you have 563,879 deaths

If I lived in NY I wouldn't be vacationing in NJ.  NY's death rate per positive case is only 7.55%, but NJ sits at 8.57%.  I'd steer clear of CT also (9.32%), but I hear Texas is nice this time of year (1.53%).

And by all means, avoid Hawai’i like the plague. Too risky to sit in a plane for so long...

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Posted (edited)
On 6/29/2020 at 5:06 PM, SoBeDad said:

Miami's 2000+ bed Jackson Health System reporting more more positive inpatients than during the "first wave", but they're less severe. The doctor doesn't address age of the patients, but says his contacts in other hospitals are also seeing less severe patients.  

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacksonHealth/status/1277700062072770561

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacksonHealth/status/1277692162323501058

Honestly think this is very misleading. During the first wave, tests were so limited we had to fill out request forms for state lab, or wait a full week for a send out lab. Mildly symptomatic with few comorbidities simply were NOT tested. you had to be highly vulnerable or heading to /on a ventilator. Now...every single person coming in with shortness of breath as a symptom is getting a rapid test done in house and resulting in less then 24 hours.

So...we are seeing a TON more "mild" cases, and "much better outcomes", but that dosen't mean the illness is lessened. We're seeing more young folks with fewer comorbidities as more bars/clubs/restaruants open....but those same folks weren't generally getting sick enough for testing a few months back, so it's even a bit misleading to say that the disease is hitting them more often.

In the end, testing capability has dramatically impacted the value of the data, and it's going to take some real smart folks real good with numbers and with more real studies (requiring TIME) to figure out the real numbers. I suspect we're going to find the real mortality is in the 1% range across all age groups, and that our early reports of case were WAY under-stated, that MILLIONS here have already had this bug and have not been counted...that could actually be some very good/hopeful news. I don't know I'm correct with 100% certainty, but I can hope so.

Meanwhile...WEAR YOUR FRIGGING MASK!

 

 

ETA: Oh...and while we're at it, we havent gotten much better at treating this thing. We;re still struggling, trust me as I have first hand on hands experience here

 

 

Edited by renesauz
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Bexar County (San Antonio) crushed the highest number of positive cases in a day by an additional 60% (was 795, 1268 today). The Governor's response? Cancelled his 4:00 presser today. Way to step up Abbott! We had our worst day by far and the Governor's response was to cower and hide.

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8 hours ago, Keerock said:

Son trying to get a test.  No clinics with open appointments for the next 2 days.  Government testing facility (Nissan Stadium) has a literal 2 mile line.

Unpossible. Posters in the "Let's have football" thread in the Pool have stated quite clearly that testing availability isn't an issue.

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On 6/29/2020 at 8:34 PM, Terminalxylem said:

No, it's not, as you'll likely never know the full picture wrt asymptomatic infection. It's the difference between case fatality and infection fatality rates, with the former being cited far more frequently when infectious disease mortality is discussed - not just COVID-19.

If you get admitted to the ICU and placed on a ventilator, and your family asks "what are his chances?", how do you think the doctor should respond?

50-50 at best :(

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23 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

That's what I'm thinking as well ...they know nursing homes are "hot spots," and can take precautions.

Ex-wife is an lpn in a florida home...they're definately taking more/better precautions then NY/NJ were early. The increased testing capability helps a ton

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23 hours ago, pollardsvision said:

NY appears to be putting the brakes on opening up.

And they are in very different situations. In all this time, CA has never gotten below 4% positivity. Ever.  4 is pretty solid. Same range many of the "doing pretty well" states are now that are opening up. Sort of like FL was on Memorial Day.

But NY has been below 2% for nearly an entire month now, and is hovering around 1% now. It's a pretty big difference. They seem to have it "under control" in a way that's not comparable to other states.

Now, what you mention.....what happens to NY when the do open up? That is the trillion dollar question. I don't know what happens. But I'll say that if NY keeps the clamps down another week or so, keeps crushing it, then opens up and all hell breaks loose, that will be so demoralizing. 

 

not a fan of positivity rate as any kind of "how are we doing" metric. Testing availability and criteria have too far an impact on that rate.

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11 hours ago, shader said:

I'd imagine you aren't alone in your anger.  No one is going to be happy about another round of lockdowns.  Maybe this time people will listen and wear masks when they are over, so we can avoid this again.

when the POTUS is scoffing at masks, religious leaders are demanding exemptions to gather in large groups, and significant numbers of nut-jobs are jumping up and down about "violations of civil rights", we can't get there.

This is a MASSIVE failure of leadership

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