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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

eoMMan said:
Someone on the radio made a good point and said that if you take multiple tests and are positive multiple times, you are counted as multiple positive cases. 

I can't verify this but if this is true, the actual positive number could be quite a bit less.
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This doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.  I can see someone getting a follow up test "to make sure" or a follow up test in order to get back to work, but is that common enough to make a statistical difference?  And then how does the other side of that coin measure up?  I can see people getting many more tests for "negative" results.  Thinking of those who have to get tested over and over to make sure they don't have it for their jobs (nurses, doctors, emt, fire rescue, etc)....but what do I know?

 
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Biff84 said:
I’d say it’s worse. Sturgis isn’t a city built to handle all those people with any sort of distancing or precautions. The rally supports the city and many others for the entire year. Cancel it and there will be huge budget issues. Sadly they’re gonna roll with it and hope for the best. I can’t imagine it’s gonna go well.
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good point....hope you guys are ok up there GB.

 
eoMMan said:
Someone on the radio made a good point and said that if you take multiple tests and are positive multiple times, you are counted as multiple positive cases. 

I can't verify this but if this is true, the actual positive number could be quite a bit less.
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There's all sorts of insinuations/conspiracies made by both sides on testing, hospitalizations and deaths.  If you go to either extreme, you'll see a ton of accusations on fudging the data.  As an example, I love reddit for info, but there are a lot of people on there that think Florida is being extremely nefarious, hiding data, hiding deaths, double-counting negative tests, etc.  

Is that true?  I have absolutely no idea.

I think at some point though, we have to accept the numbers we've been given and move forward, unless there is clear evidence of bad info being put forward.  

 
I would assume there are more multiple negative tests. My MiL had to go into the hospital and was tested 3 times in 2 days to make sure she remained negative.

 
culdeus said:
Any discussion on Fostamatinib ?  Seems to be helping with the severe cases.

Moving forward today with further trials.

http://www.montereycountyweekly.com/news/state/rigel-announces-investigator-sponsored-trial-of-fostamatinib-in-patients-with-covid-19-pneumonia/article_c8f3710d-130a-5b72-bf5f-43cd1a6a5d6e.html

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Rigel+Pharma+(RIGL)+Announces+Investigator-Sponsored+Trial+of+Fostamatinib+in+Patients+with+COVID-19+Pneumonia/17109709.html
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Not heard anything about it, but I’m inherently skeptical of most immunotherapy for infectious disease. There are multiple substances involved in the inflammatory cascade which results in cytokine storm, and none of them appear specific to COVID 19. So intuitively it may require a cocktail of multiple drugs to keep it at bay. But those same substances are also involved in a healthy immune response, making infection (sometimes with unusual organisms) a potential side effect of immune therapy.

Steroids like solumedrol are less specific immune modulators, which in a way make more sense for general immune hyper responsiveness. But steroids have side effects too, including increased risk of certain infections.
 

Over the years, both steroids and more specific anti inflammatory drugs like Drotrecogin alpha have been tried for sepsis, and none have really panned out. On the other hand, immune therapy has done wonders for cancer, and there is tremendous financial incentive to produce therapeutics based on monoclonal antibodies. So I guess we just have to wait for the data. 

 
kutta said:
I like it, but I don't see Florida in the trend graphs near the bottom of the page. Weird.
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That is odd. They definitely aren't hiding florida as the main graphic front and center has it color coded as one of the worst spots currently. And if you scroll over it, the info is there. I never bothered even looking at those bottom things before since they were so small. 

 
eoMMan said:
Someone on the radio made a good point and said that if you take multiple tests and are positive multiple times, you are counted as multiple positive cases. 

I can't verify this but if this is true, the actual positive number could be quite a bit less.
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It differs per state according to their reporting protocols. We (LA) were counting duplicates for several months, unbeknownst to the general public. They adjusted the data and case counts fell in most areas, and we are now no longer reporting duplicates. 

 
CDC is really using some out of the box thinking on that one.  I thought it might be something like having a heat wave forces everyone inside, and no one can open the windows because it's so freaking hot out.  Maybe that leads to higher ambient covid level indoors which would facilitate more virus spread.  It never occurred to me that all these northern states, which are in greater control of the outbreak, are selectively having disease ridden vacationers strategically head south and infect those states instead.  damn yankees

 
JaxBill said:
Some places you can't return to work until one maybe rwo negative tests. So you test positivr, wait x days, feel better and fail the test again.
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Gotcha.   I was just generally curious. As I didn't think it would be a lot.   So that means you no longer have it but now have antibodies?

Tbh I'm not convinced the tests are reliable.  Some people have it test positive then 48 and 72 hours later are negative?

 
belljr said:
Gotcha.   I was just generally curious. As I didn't think it would be a lot.   So that means you no longer have it but now have antibodies?

Tbh I'm not convinced the tests are reliable.  Some people have it test positive then 48 and 72 hours later are negative?
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I mean, it depends on your definition of reliable.  I'm sure there are errors, so they definitely aren't 100% reliable.  But are the tests reliable enough to give us an idea of what's going on?  I think its pretty clear that they are, for the most part.  Many of these states are putting their information together on their own, are making mistakes, are learning from mistakes, and are getting better at this.  But I like to think that they are all trying to get correct data out there.  

 
eoMMan said:
Someone on the radio made a good point and said that if you take multiple tests and are positive multiple times, you are counted as multiple positive cases. 

I can't verify this but if this is true, the actual positive number could be quite a bit less.
Click to expand...
My county tracks people tested and not total tests.

 
Doug B said:
It's a fine distinction Stadler is making, perhaps. Looking again at what he wrote below ... he seems to be saying that a quickly-shut-down infection isn't of clinical significance:

EDIT: I had meant to reply to some of your posts last night, but it's a PITA to do it properly on a phone. Just coming around to last night's comments now.
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A disease requires symptoms to be relevant to the infected individual, but that doesn’t help other people who get sick, if asymptomatic spread is as prominent as we’re led to believe.
 

The observational data so far suggests kids are less likely to spread SARS-CoV-2, but I need to see more before I’m willing to concede they can’t spread it to an appreciable extent. We’ll certainly have a better idea if/when schools reopen.

 
eoMMan said:
Someone on the radio made a good point and said that if you take multiple tests and are positive multiple times, you are counted as multiple positive cases. 

I can't verify this but if this is true, the actual positive number could be quite a bit less.
Click to expand...
No idea how they're counting them, but I have an employee who tested positive back on June 19th.  She has subsequently been tested 6 more times (all positive) in her attempts to come back to work.  We are requiring two negative tests.  She has had no symptoms since July 7th. 

The CDC has admitted in many cases there is prolonged detection of RNA without there actually being direct correlation to viral culture.  In other words, you may still test positive, but you aren't sick nor contagious.

 
Grahamburn said:
No idea how they're counting them, but I have an employee who tested positive back on June 19th.  She has subsequently been tested 6 more times (all positive) in her attempts to come back to work.  We are requiring two negative tests.  She has had no symptoms since July 7th. 

The CDC has admitted in many cases there is prolonged detection of RNA without there actually being direct correlation to viral culture.  In other words, you may still test positive, but you aren't sick nor contagious.
Click to expand...
I guess this is what I'm asking.  "When does it go negative"

 
JaxBill said:
Some places you can't return to work until one maybe rwo negative tests. So you test positivr, wait x days, feel better and fail the test again.
Click to expand...
This is kind of what I was thinking, and the flip side of that coin is people getting tested every single day to make sure they are still negative.  I'm willing to assume the "counting" here is pretty close to a wash or not statistically significant.  

 
Terminalxylem said:
Do you think the parents of those children weren't exposed to those same coronaviruses?

Make no mistake, I think that explanation is somewhat plausible, but it shouldn't be our default assumption when determining policy like reopening schools.

ETA Are you suggesting children aren't significant vectors for most respiratory infections? Because that was also part of the face-flying to which I referred.
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At this point we can't prove the why, but the fact remains that kids are very rarely catching this...and if they're very rarely catching this, it's not exactly a giant leap to say they aren't significant vectors either.

Not sure that's enough to re-open all the schools, but to say the data isn't out there isn't exactly true

 
eoMMan said:
Someone on the radio made a good point and said that if you take multiple tests and are positive multiple times, you are counted as multiple positive cases. 

I can't verify this but if this is true, the actual positive number could be quite a bit less.
Click to expand...
... I would think this rarely happens. Very rarely.

 
matuski said:
Where are they getting the heart and lung data?  

Nearly everyone (18/19) hospitalized has permanent heart damage?  Seems some large assumptions being made here.
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His math is wrong. It should be 18% of 19%, or 3.4%. Hospitalization rate is also going down to the 10-15% range.

So his numbers aren’t perfect, but the overall message is a good one IMO.

 
Doug B said:
I don't think Stadler rules this out at all -- I think he's just saying that this (partial?) immunity that kids seem to have doesn't last too far into adulthood.
Click to expand...
Understood, but what I’m trying to say is the parents of sick kids were exposed to coronaviruses recently (from their kids), in addition to whatever exposure they had as children. Are parents of young children relatively immune to SARS-CoV-2 as well?

 
Terminalxylem said:
Doug B said:
It's a fine distinction Stadler is making, perhaps. Looking again at what he wrote below ... he seems to be saying that a quickly-shut-down infection isn't of clinical significance:

EDIT: I had meant to reply to some of your posts last night, but it's a PITA to do it properly on a phone. Just coming around to last night's comments now.
Click to expand...
A disease requires symptoms to be relevant to the infected individual, but that doesn’t help other people who get sick, if asymptomatic spread is as prominent as we’re led to believe.

The observational data so far suggests kids are less likely to spread SARS-CoV-2, but I need to see more before I’m willing to concede they can’t spread it to an appreciable extent. We’ll certainly have a better idea if/when schools reopen.
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The part in red is something Stadler has been railing against -- he is one that's been saying asymptomatic spread doesn't happen and that the WHO had the right the first time around in their February report on China's COVID-19 response.

Now then, to give context ... Stadler is a stickler for a super-narrow definition of "asymptomatic". He takes it to mean "absolutely no hint of a symptom". 99.1o fever with nothing else? That person with a half-degree fever has a symptom and is therefore not asymptomatic. A morning-long sore throat that clears up by lunch? Symptom. Middle-of-the-night coughing spell that doesn't return? Symptom.

Admittedly, that narrow definition of "asymptomatic" makes things difficult on clinicians. The patient reports feeling like hell one morning, super-tired and fighting to get out of bed -- but just that one morning. The rest of the time, patient feels fine and no fever was ever detected. Should that be considered a symptomatic carrier if that person ever tests positive just based on being extra-tired upon waking one time? It's really easy to get lost in the minutiae.

 
Terminalxylem said:
The observational data so far suggests kids are less likely to spread SARS-CoV-2, but I need to see more before I’m willing to concede they can’t spread it to an appreciable extent. We’ll certainly have a better idea if/when schools reopen.
Click to expand...
Just a side note: Schools around here (N.O. metro) stayed open about 10-12 days after local community spread was established. So far as I'm aware ... there were no outbreaks traced back to a local school.

And our daycare centers never closed ... no local daycare outbreaks to my knowledge.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
I'd like to point to this post as a good talking point. 

For those who think they know more and can skirt the mask mandate or feel validated when you see others not wearing a mask or breaking the bigger one IMO, SOCIAL DISTANCING!!! How come it's always Mask/No Mask, how come people cannot stay 6 feet back? I almost went off on a guy who walked right by me, almost brushed up on me and again I am trying to just keep my cool when I am out and about. 

What if you did catch the CV-19, maybe felt nothing more than other flu/colds you conquered but this one...this one ends up doing something to your heart or lungs that won't be felt until you are a little later on in life...long term impact, would that get some folks attention? Would that potentially change what folks do now? 

It doesn't work well with smoking and alcohol warning people about later in life so my thinking would say it wouldn't however if it's true than everyone should be made aware about it. 
Click to expand...
Social distancing is important, for sure, but isn’t nearly as easy to accomplish as masking. The former requires everyone to cooperate and physical space to be available, while the latter is entirely within your control.

 
renesauz said:
Terminalxylem said:
Do you think the parents of those children weren't exposed to those same coronaviruses?

Make no mistake, I think that explanation is somewhat plausible, but it shouldn't be our default assumption when determining policy like reopening schools.

ETA Are you suggesting children aren't significant vectors for most respiratory infections? Because that was also part of the face-flying to which I referred.
Click to expand...
At this point we can't prove the why, but the fact remains that kids are very rarely catching this...and if they're very rarely catching this, it's not exactly a giant leap to say they aren't significant vectors either.

Not sure that's enough to re-open all the schools, but to say the data isn't out there isn't exactly true
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Yeah, the observational data is legion. The specific "whys" and the underlying explanations are not yet clear, though.

 
Biff84 said:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer
 

He’s the main person I follow daily. He gets all his data from the state website that post every morning around 8:30 AZ time. Their website doesn’t work well with my phone, so I find his organization of the data and graphs to be highly effective. There’s also several others that analyze the AZ data and he’s pretty good at retweeting them.
Click to expand...
Not to get ahead too far in AZ, but it seems like the shutdowns of bars, gyms, theaters and water parks that happened on 6/30 could be starting to manifest itself in fewer cases.

If AZ can stay tough with masks, no bars, no restaurants, etc. they could beat this thing back. Keep it up!

It's hard in AZ because it's 115 degrees every day rn. June, July, August and September are inside months in AZ. Going to the mall, the restaurant, etc. is what there is to do. It's tough. 

 
Passed by 2 urgent cares today on the way to my dad's house.  Both had lines wrapped around the building.  I assume it's for testing since Mobile has had a pretty big uptick recently.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Having come from a dysfunctional family, I learned that you should establish boundaries and refuse to play into the dysfunction. People will probably get sick and die somewhere downstream of the event. That should be talked about on it’s face, and addressed accordingly.
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Absolutely. There is no need to enable bad behavior. The consequences of upsetting a few people are outweighed by those resulting from propagating the pandemic.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Doug B said:
I don't think Stadler rules this out at all -- I think he's just saying that this (partial?) immunity that kids seem to have doesn't last too far into adulthood.
Click to expand...
Understood, but what I’m trying to say is the parents of sick kids were exposed to coronaviruses recently (from their kids), in addition to whatever exposure they had as children. Are parents of young children relatively immune to SARS-CoV-2 as well?
Click to expand...
Good question. A few spitballs:

- If young children make poor COVID-19 carriers (for whatever reason) ... their parents don't need to be immune.

- Parents of young children tend to be young(ish) adults. As a mathematical average ... yeah, there are outliers having kids late in life, but a round-up of your average elementary school parents would be a whole lot of folks under 50, a large majority of whom would be under 40. Being that young as an adult points to better COVID-19 outcomes (statistically) even when infected.

EDIT: Oh, wait ... I think I missed your point here -- IMHO, yes indeed ... raising small kids probably does maintain parents' exposure to tamer coronaviruses. That makes a ton of sense intuitively.

 
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I recently moved and was just notified that one of our movers has tested positive for COVID.  I did not have direct contact with him, but I did have direct contact with other movers who had been in contact with him a couple days before. 

I've also been feeling what I think are allergies which I attributed to the dust from the moving.  Itchy eyes, scratchy throat, some sneezing.  No fever, cough or shortness of breath.  Should I get tested?   My insurance is also in the process of being transferred over to a new plan since this was an interstate move.  Wonderful timing.  

 
renesauz said:
belljr said:
I'm not trying to argue here just how many people are retaking a positive test in general?
Click to expand...
Anybody hospitalized. We re-test our ICU patients every 5-7 days...they're usually positive for at least 3 weeks.
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Yeah, but they don't get counted as new cases every time, do they? I can understand some honest mistakes here and there ... but consistently counting those re-tests as new cases would seem especially slipshod.

 
shader said:
I mean, it depends on your definition of reliable.  I'm sure there are errors, so they definitely aren't 100% reliable.  But are the tests reliable enough to give us an idea of what's going on?  I think its pretty clear that they are, for the most part.  Many of these states are putting their information together on their own, are making mistakes, are learning from mistakes, and are getting better at this.  But I like to think that they are all trying to get correct data out there.  
Click to expand...
the first tests that were available were terribly UNreliable, but the newer ones seem to be over 95% accurate. My understanding is that the inaccuracies still present represent sampling error more then an issue with the tests themselves.

Unfortunately, there is still a lack of adequate testing even here in VA where things have been...steady. My hospital has repeatedly run out of the rapid tests (turnaround 12-18 hours). The send outs take 4 days or more....which is 3-5 more days in isolation, often thinking we're treating a COVID case only to find out later it's a different issue altogether

 
Terminalxylem said:
Social distancing is important, for sure, but isn’t nearly as easy to accomplish as masking. The former requires everyone to cooperate and physical space to be available, while the latter is entirely within your control.
Click to expand...
Yeah but I enjoy screaming at people to stand back and at 6-3 with a mask/bandit look and a mirrored pair of pilot shades, usually don't have too many problems conveying my displeasure with their current location  :whistle:

 
Just to add a note about contact tracing, it is a difficult, time consuming task that often leads to an incomplete picture as the respondents rarely are fully truthful and honest. Even those that want to be helpful cannot with 100% accuracy detail their contacts for 5 days, let alone 14. 
Parents will also sometimes leave their children and any young contacts out of the timeline completely.

there is also no legal requirement for a contact to cooperate with the local Health Department tracer, which is often an MRC volunteer and almost never a trained epidemiologist. Contact tracing is great if it works. In my experience, it is terribly flawed.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Not to get ahead too far in AZ, but it seems like the shutdowns of bars, gyms, theaters and water parks that happened on 6/30 could be starting to manifest itself in fewer cases.

If AZ can stay tough with masks, no bars, no restaurants, etc. they could beat this thing back. Keep it up!

It's hard in AZ because it's 115 degrees every day rn. June, July, August and September are inside months in AZ. Going to the mall, the restaurant, etc. is what there is to do. It's tough. 
Click to expand...
There’s some good trends, especially a downward trend in positivity but I’m gonna put a hold on optimism until there’s more consistency. Test results are delayed 5-10 days right now. If anything, the current dip could be due to the mask mandate. While closing the bars and gyms was needed, I think the overall impact will be minimal because they only closed certain licenses and left dine-in restaurants open.

While closing the bars and gyms will help knock down the spread between the younger people, I’m more worried about the generational spread from 4th of July. Despite what we were going through, grocery stores were packed and firework stands did record sales. It felt like Memorial Day except everyone was wearing masks. Maybe people were smart, but I have a feeling they weren’t. My expectation is rising deaths from the current case load with declining new cases. However, those cases will start trending older and become more consequential cases - higher hospitalization, ICU and death rates.

 
Doug B said:
Terminalxylem said:
The observational data so far suggests kids are less likely to spread SARS-CoV-2, but I need to see more before I’m willing to concede they can’t spread it to an appreciable extent. We’ll certainly have a better idea if/when schools reopen.
Click to expand...
Just a side note: Schools around here (N.O. metro) stayed open about 10-12 days after local community spread was established. So far as I'm aware ... there were no outbreaks traced back to a local school.

And our daycare centers never closed ... no local daycare outbreaks to my knowledge.
Click to expand...
Seems like the prudent middle ground might be to let the elementary/preschool/daycare places open, do distance learning in the HIgh Schools, and make middle school decisions based on locations/capabilities.

Of course, the MORE PRUDENT thing to do would be enforced mandatory masking nationwide

 
FTR: The reason I am big into the 6 feet social distancing is let's assume you are somewhere and people are not all wearing the masks...even if you point it out, it's possible the individual does not have a mask and I equate it to the driver with a tail light or head light out, even when you tell them there isn't much they can do on the spot. So unless you have a spare mask there isn't likely to be a happy ending so I just tell them in lieu of the mask mandate they are breaking to at least stay 6 feet back, that you can control on the spot.  

@Terminalxylem has good points and I just wanted to address why I am big into the 6 feet rule. 

 
renesauz said:
At this point we can't prove the why, but the fact remains that kids are very rarely catching this...and if they're very rarely catching this, it's not exactly a giant leap to say they aren't significant vectors either.

Not sure that's enough to re-open all the schools, but to say the data isn't out there isn't exactly true
Click to expand...
Sorry, I haven’t seen any large-scale assessment of seroprevalence in kids. Can you link something to help me out?

I think children are rarely getting sick from SARS-CoV-2, and almost never dying from it, but I don’t have a good handle on how many have been exposed and remained minimally symptomatic or asymptomatic. Look like the data is still being collected.

 
CR69 said:
Reading this article on the Moderna vaccine and saw this towards the middle "The participants will be followed for two years after receiving their second dose."

How do we get a vaccine this year if they're going to study them for two years?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/health/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-phase-1-study/index.html
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One the reasons why I would be hesitant to touch any vaccine that hits the market this year. There’s too much motivation to get this out as quick as possible.

 
renesauz said:
Seems like the prudent middle ground might be to let the elementary/preschool/daycare places open, do distance learning in the HIgh Schools, and make middle school decisions based on locations/capabilities.

Of course, the MORE PRUDENT thing to do would be enforced mandatory masking nationwide
Click to expand...
Our school district has proposed k-6, high school freshman and seniors go to in school 5 days a week. The other classes do a 2 day one week 3 day the next scheduled. 

 
Doug B said:
Good question. A few spitballs:

- If young children make poor COVID-19 carriers (for whatever reason) ... their parents don't need to be immune.

- Parents of young children tend to be young(ish) adults. As a mathematical average ... yeah, there are outliers having kids late in life, but a round-up of your average elementary school parents would be a whole lot of folks under 50, a large majority of whom would be under 40. Being that young as an adult points to better COVID-19 outcomes (statistically) even when infected.

EDIT: Oh, wait ... I think I missed your point here -- IMHO, yes indeed ... raising small kids probably does maintain parents' exposure to tamer coronaviruses. That makes a ton of sense intuitively.
Click to expand...
Same goes for teachers of young kids. Are they not getting covid either?

 
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