Also, it doesn't work well to prevent further spread when the ratio of positive cases to contact tracers is too high, like it is in parts of Florida and elsewhere. I think it could be great in some school environments with isolated cases.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Reporting is a huge issue because there’s no standardized process from state to state. This not only makes it tough to compare states but also makes it easier to manipulate the numbers.
The lady who got fired in Florida for refusing to manipulate numbers, said that one of the things they were doing was reporting every negative but only the initial positive. They were also reporting PCR and antibody tests together to make it look like they met the requirements to open up.
In AZ they separate the tests but combine the positives. Just no consistency and room to shape the numbers in the way you want them to look.
-fish-
Footballguy
People on social media are losing their minds about this and have now wrapped a global conspiracy to shift to a cashless society into their ranting about how the whole thing is a hoax to make people give up their freedoms.
When businesses close and/or stop taking cash, they don't cash in the change to the banks. The fed also decreased minting coins to protect workers.
Who cares. Might be a good time to get rid of pennies, though.
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
3 friends have posted Testing positive for covid, 2 had flu like symptoms and a bad 2 days but are recovering at home just fine. The other ended up in the ICU on a ventilator for 2 weeks, he is now home but has to monitor his O2 and use an O2 bottle when it drops which happens when he simply walks around his house. He is 1 year retired from the CG and was in good health and shape.
I now have 2 family members that tested positive, 1 is doing just fine. My uncle is on day 3 and says he feels worse now than he has ever felt in his life to include detoxing off drugs. The rest of my immediate family is worried since they were altogether days before they both got sick. I’m definitely taking this more seriously now that I have close people dealing with it.
I now have 2 family members that tested positive, 1 is doing just fine. My uncle is on day 3 and says he feels worse now than he has ever felt in his life to include detoxing off drugs. The rest of my immediate family is worried since they were altogether days before they both got sick. I’m definitely taking this more seriously now that I have close people dealing with it.
MTskibum
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
And not to pick on you, but it's a shame that this is what it takes for some to take it seriously. Just because you don't see it or you don't have people you know affected by it doesn't mean it's not happening all around us.
-fish-
Footballguy
I was likely exposed a couple months ago, but at that point I was barely leaving my house and I didn't get sick so never really worried about it. A notice came up today that if I pay with my Amex the LabCorp antibody test only costs $5, so I'm going to go get the antibody test tomorrow more out of curiosity than anything else. Plus more data is always good, right?
Most recent information looks like any immunity fades within a few months anyway, but I'd still be interested to know.
Most recent information looks like any immunity fades within a few months anyway, but I'd still be interested to know.
shadyridr
Footballguy
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
Truth, although my job requires me to wear a mask in public and maintain social distancing so I’ve followed all protocols to date. Maybe it’s that I was skeptical of the seriousness of it but I do honor the rules set down upon me by my chain of command so I wasn’t being reckless before this.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
No, Seal Beach. And thanks. I should quit golfing and going to Rickys before my upcoming surgery but I need mental health as well.
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Wow, did not expect to see a Xigris reference in this thread. What a blast from the past. But given all the crazy stuff that has come out of this pandemic, I guess I shouldn't be shocked. Somehow, though, I pictured you as being younger than someone who would have used it.
Thanks for the nostalgia.
jhib
Footballguy
Crap. I didn't see this earlier, but my wife just realized the kind we bought weeks ago at BJ's (Blumen) to keep in the car - where we've used it multiple times a day since - is on the newer list. The lot numbers aren't among the ones the company actually voluntarily recalled, but I'm not sure that matters. It certainly doesn't matter in one area: she's already come down with headache and nausea since reading it, and is sure the other symptoms are just a matter of time.Because #### isn't bad enough, I now have an FDA recommended recall on the hand sanitizer I have been using as it has tested for high levels of methanol.There are 55 labels currently on their list if anyone wants to check.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Umm, yeah.
It does happen - every year. The media just doesn't cover it. It's not every hospital every year but you never know where a virus is going to hit hard in any given year. Whether it was Covid-19 or something else in January, Las Vegas hospitals were treating people in hallways and lobbies and not one news station or newspaper came out to do a story on it. Why? Because it's not as uncommon as people think.
But since most are ignorant to it, it sure draws the clicks right now. Gets people all kinds of stirred up right now. Wouldn't get much attention running that story during flu season.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Scattered around the US it sure as heck does. That doesn't make the current situation in Texas any less dire or tragic. The fact that most are ignorant to the way hospitals are constructed and operate is exactly why the media is able to manipulate the general public so well with this virus. I sure would love it if they manipulating everyone into believing masks during pandemics would lengthen your life by 5 years. I feel like it would be pretty easy to drum up some numbers that would do the trick.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Scattered? Sure
Widespread? No, it doesn't.
It is widespread and trending in the wrong direction. The media isn't manipulating anyone with the current state of affairs.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Other than never talking about how far the number of deaths have fallen since mid-April and sensationalizing the number of positive cases without the added context of how many more tests are being conducted compared to then, and duping viewers into think percentages like 90-95% ICU capacity is an unheard of, unprecedented thing, then yeah no manipulating at all.
culdeus
Footballguy
Same, if had them we would have gone in coach to cancun gotten hammered and trolled everyone.
culdeus
Footballguy
There are pockets across the country where this thing is out of hand. There are others where it isn't.
The death rate is better, no question, that doesn't mean we can head to the strip club just yet.
shader
Footballguy
Tuesday numbers
Deaths in the 21 "Outbreak States"
(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)
July 14: 744 deaths
Last three Tuesdays: (479,634,744)
7-day average in deaths
6/28: 278
6/29: 304
6/30: 310
7/1: 305
7/2: 316
7/3: 321
7/4: 302
7/5: 304
7/6: 317
7/7: 340
7/8: 361
7/9: 391
7/10: 421
7/11: 474
7/12: 496
7/13: 497
7/14: 513
Deaths in the 21 "Outbreak States"
(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)
July 14: 744 deaths
Last three Tuesdays: (479,634,744)
7-day average in deaths
6/28: 278
6/29: 304
6/30: 310
7/1: 305
7/2: 316
7/3: 321
7/4: 302
7/5: 304
7/6: 317
7/7: 340
7/8: 361
7/9: 391
7/10: 421
7/11: 474
7/12: 496
7/13: 497
7/14: 513
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Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
And what gives you the impression that I in any way am saying anything contrary to everything you just said here? I wish we'd just skip ahead to the part where every person in the country wears a mask and we get this under control 3 weeks later. One of the biggest issues with this discussion is how if you say anything to other than the sky is falling you must think this is all a giant hoax. It's quite the opposite for me. I wish the media would mix in the positive news when it exists because then there would be fewer people tuning them out. Sensationalizing something more than it already naturally is just leads to a lack of trust and causes even more problems. Case in point, how difficult it's become to get people to do the one simple thing that bring back some normalcy and put death behind us.
But no, everything only works today by putting everyone into one of two sides.
culdeus
Footballguy
This is by far the most fascinating read I've seen so far on this thing relating to why blood types seem to matter. And, paradoxically? lays out a vaccination path way to get to herd immunity with far fewer people.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20152637v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20152637v1
shader
Footballguy
We've been total opposites on many issues in this thread, but on this particular issue I'd agree. Just force everyone to wear a mask, make it a federal edict, make it punishable with a 5,000 dollar fine...I don't care. Just make that the rule. There is continued and growing evidence that masks work. Is it enough to stop the outbreaks alone? I can't answer that, but it is a possibility.
culdeus
Footballguy
I dunno, I feel like I play both sides here. It probably comes off as wishy washy, but IDGAF. I like to source things that are a little out there and get feedback, repeat. There are a lot of smart people to learn from here.
culdeus
Footballguy
Is blood type targeting a useful vaccination strategy?
Initial preprints noting the increased risk to type A individuals have proposed that these may require additional surveillance and priority for protection. However, ABO-interference with virus transmission presents a unique and striking scenario that has not previously been modelled in detail, in which those most prone to infection are those least likely to pass it on, and vice versa. This raises the question as to whether it is more important to vaccinate the most susceptible individuals, or the most infectious individuals. Figure 3A shows (1−𝑅𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑦𝑅𝑚𝑎𝑥), i.e. the degree to which R0 is suppressed by ABO-interference, across the full spectrum of potential ABO allele frequencies for ρ212= 30%. ABO-interference suppresses transmission most efficiently when the allele frequency ratio is approximately 40% O / 30% A / 30% B alleles. Translating allele frequencies to blood group frequencies yields Figure 3B.
ABO-interference suppresses transmission most efficiently when type O individuals make up 15% of the population and type A / type B individuals are present in equal proportions. A similar shape heat map is obtained for values of ρ=20% and ρ=90% . Vaccinating type O individuals moves the population upwards in Figure 3B, while vaccinating type A or B moves the population right or left respectively. In principle, an optimal vaccination strategy will cause the distribution among susceptible individuals to move “down” the gradient, i.e. towards more effective suppression of the epidemic. Conversely, the vaccination strategy must also be careful not to disrupt the intrinsic protection afforded by ABO-interference.
To illustrate this, consider a population with 50% type A and 50% type O individuals, similar to Māori and some Polynesian populations where the type B frequency is very low. In general, the predicted herd immunity threshold is (𝑅0−1𝑅0), so in the absence of ABO-interference the threshold for an epidemic with an Rmaxof 3 is 66.7%. In such a population, if ρ= 30% then Rsteady= 2.32, the risk for type A individuals is 1.82 times higher than type O individuals, and type O individuals are 1.54 times as infectious as type A individuals. A well-intentioned strategy to reduce infection might prioritise vaccinating type O super-spreaders before type A. However, once all type O individuals have been immunised, the protective effect of ABO-interference is abolished since the remaining susceptible population is now exclusively type A, and an infected type A individual can freely transmit to any remaining susceptible individual. Herd immunity will therefore only be attained when the full 66.7% of the population is vaccinated. The same applies in reverse if the more vulnerable type A individuals are instead prioritised for vaccination.
However, vaccinating both blood types equally produces herd immunity when 56.9% of the population is vaccinated, consistent with Rsteady in this population. This effect is further magnified if transmission is brought down by other means, for example non-pharmaceutical interventions including social distancing. For the same population and same value 238 of ρ= 30%, if Rmax= 2 then Rsteady= 1.55. In this case the herd immunity threshold is 50% of the population if preferentially vaccinating either type O or type A, but only 35.4% if vaccinating individuals at random.
shader
Footballguy
I don’t always agree with everything you write, but you always give me interesting info to challenge my perspective.
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Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
I've seen that from you and it's been welcomed. It's much easier to ride along with the vocal majority and I respect anyone who is willing to go out on a limb.
I'd love to see if everyone here agrees about how counterproductive it is to restrict, shout down, or refrain from sharing positive news about the virus. I think the fear is that if something like a sharp decline in deaths is mentioned, everyone will let their guard down. When in fact the numbers are easy to find, and trying to hiding them or distract from them, has led to a distrust and rebelliousness far worse than any kind of carelessness assumed by providing the full picture. To me it's obvious how counterproductive it is.
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shader
Footballguy
The reason a sharp decline in deaths is rejected, is because that’s not true anymore.
There WAS a sharp decline in deaths. Now they are clearly on the rise again.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
That was never spoken of.
And that's one of many examples why far too many people are tuning this thing out. You're a great example of the phenomena here actually. So afraid that when something good is pointed out, that everyone is going to drop their guard. The next positive news shared here that you don't leap to spin or counteract will be the first time. It's not your intent that's the issue, it's how little respect you have for people to understand what's going on. Like they're not going to be able to process how when any progress is made, it doesn't mean we're out of the woods. The media goes one step further and adds the aspect of ill intent though. I don't question your intent at all, you have nothing to gain by fueling paranoia.
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shader
Footballguy
the rover
Footballguy
It’s free here if you have an order from your PCP. My PCP is six months out for an appointment unless you are sick. My insurer offers video appointments with a physician, but it costs $10. So paying $5 directly to the lab for a test seems like the most efficient way to go.
UOFI_316
Footballguy
I have no idea what to make of this. I am in the suburbs of Chicago for a reference. School down the street has a baseball field. Took one of my kids for a walk and we stopped at the park next to the school. There was a baseball game about to start. Ump was standing behind the pitcher (which seems to be the new normal), but all the kids were sitting next to each other in the dugouts. Before the game, each coach had his team in a huddle and the did the "1 2 3 shout something" type of thing, seems counter productive to social distancing to scream in each others face. It looked like the parents from both teams were gathered along the shady side of the field and each family was directly next to the next family. I know they were all outside, but seems like other than the Ump they did not seem to care about anything Covid related.
Going to the stores there has been an almost 100% mask compliance, so this seemed wierd to me. We have not heard from the school districts what the plans are for school, I think they have their meeting this week to figure that out.
Going to the stores there has been an almost 100% mask compliance, so this seemed wierd to me. We have not heard from the school districts what the plans are for school, I think they have their meeting this week to figure that out.
shadyridr
Footballguy
I have no clue how it works. I just went to an urgent care and waited on line. No PCP order, no requirements, nothing. This was in early May.
shadyridr
Footballguy
yes my son has been playing baseball for about 2 weeks now and there is zero social distancing and no masks. The members on this site are the far minority in their fear.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
This may shock some or even everyone here, but if I was participating in the FFToday, Geek Club version of this thread, I'd be the one posting the troubling numbers. I hope that blows a mind or two here.
the rover
Footballguy
Washington has done a crappy job with all testing. Don’t know if it’s related to that. There aren’t any free antibody tests that I’m aware of near me. But our governor falls on the fearmongering side, so maybe he’s trying to limit antibody testing. Who knows?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I do think distorting data and the truth ultimately is counterproductive. Months ago many hospitals were attributing any death where the person was even suspected of having Covid as being caused by Covid because they received more money for that. So now the actual number of deaths from Covid is a bit murky and has given ammo to some folks to decry the whole thing as a hoax and a scam. And it’s more difficult to argue against that because the data that was created is clearly false and we have no true idea of just how true or false it is. So now those who believe it is a hoax and refuse to wear masks or distance are going to use that to reinforce those clearly bad decisions.
The real difficulty is that the entire thing has been politicized and created very clear polarization. There are significant percentages on both ends that will reject anything that is counter to their view and elevate anything that agrees with it because that’s what humans do. The question is just how much of the squishy middle is there of people who are willing to hear both sides and weigh the info to make reasonable decisions? My fear is that number is less and less all the time and each side pushes the other further away. One side just has it confirmed over and over that the other side is lying and the whole thing is fake and any suggestions made to control it are unreasonable and so they’re more and more likely to reject any suggestion at all. The other side views that side as ignorant selfish jerks who will grasp at any piece of info to justify not changing any behaviors so they’re willing to lie or omit information in an attempt to make the other position seem all the more unreasonable and convince them they’re wrong.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
Of all the bizarre narratives that I've seen in this thread, "Why don't people talk more about the declining death numbers that are no longer declining" just might take the cake.
renesauz
IBL Representative
Of course it is...we don't have a good study giving exact numbers, but we DO HAVE pretty good data on who has been sick, and good data on the ages of those killed, and this data is pretty convincing that kids aren't getting sick anywhere near as easily.
shader
Footballguy
renesauz
IBL Representative
You're still not getting it...THIS IS NOT NORMAL. It's normal for a few days at specific hospitals, usually in Sep-Feb. It is NOT NORMAL for an entire region in July...PERIOD
belljr
Footballguy
You call it fear, I call it being smart.
And we've played 17 games in the last 3 weeks
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
No, I get it clearly and shouldn't need to repeat it a hundred times for those who miss it. This is worse than any flu season by far. I'm speaking to the notion that hospitals don't deal with surges every year. Not in this quantity, no, but surges happen every year. Someone just expressed an appreciation of having all facts. Sharing all of them doesn't mean anyone is attempting to downplay things. It's adding to the picture in the presence of media that doesn't trust us to deal with a complete picture. People here need to stop freaking out when more of the story is told. Grow up.
