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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

Friday numbers 

Deaths in the 21 "Outbreak States"

(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)

July 17:  742 deaths

Last three Fridays: (357,563,742)

7-day average in deaths

7/4: 302

7/5: 304

7/6: 317

7/7: 340

7/8: 361

7/9: 391

7/10: 421

7/11: 474

7/12: 496

7/13: 497

7/14: 513

7/15: 532

7/16: 545

7/17: 570

 
shadyridr said:
Sorry for my harshness last night. I was a little drunk.

I wear them. I find them very uncomfortable wearing them especially for long times in the heat but I wear them. But nobody enjoys wearing them and thats all my post was saying which is why I find it weird someone took issue with it. Just like someone took issue with me saying it doesn't shock me people are being selfish or ignoring their own health by not wearing masks. Just look at all the cigarette smokers we have in this world.
Click to expand...
I agree, long periods outside would suck. I was responding based on the short walks from cars to stores, which was what I thought the discussion was based on in the thread at the time. So if your response was to something other, then I apologize for a bad assumption. I don't want to imply what I said applies to longer outdoor periods. I fully understand why someone laying roof tiles wouldn't want to wear one.

 
Coronavirus: Florida adds 10,328 COVID-19 cases as more new rules kick in

In Miami-Dade, a record number of positive cases. Every few days, I personally know more people who are COVID+ve or quarantined due to contact.  My friends and coworkers and their family members who are older are being cautious. We may reach herd immunity before a vaccine is produced.

Also the new norm in deaths in the state is around 100 per day, whereas it was 35-50 from April to early June.  

The new rules include no alcohol sales after 5pm (it was 8pm), earlier closures in the entertainment districts in Miami Beach, and civil fines of $100 for violating mask rules.  Inside dining in restaurants was banned last week.

 
SoBeDad said:
Every few days, I personally know more people who are COVID+ve or quarantined due to contact.  
Click to expand...
I'm just waiting for the hammer to drop here for me.  California's cases are obviously on the rise but I feel fortunate that no one I know has contracted it.  One girl I know who's a hairdresser had a client that passed away from it... but that's as "close" as it's gotten to me thus far.

 
Two personal anecdotes from yesterday:

1) Was at one of our local WalMart stores Friday morning, in New Orleans proper. There were four or five yellow-vested WalMart employees (health ambassadors?) and two NOPD deputies stationed in the “lobby” area of the store (near the shopping carts, drink machines, greeter stand, etc.).

You’ll hear a lot of politicians say “we can’t enforce a mask mandate” and thus beg off making the hard decisions. New Orleans mayor Latoya Cantrell isn’t perfect, but she’s right on the money regarding public enforcement of the mask mandate. No one’s getting ticketed or arrested for showing up somewhere in New Orleans without a face covering. But people will get arrested for trespassing after making a scene in front of a store that won’t admit their bare-faced self.

2) Went swimming in a family friend's backyard. Family friend is a parole officer in a suburban N.O. department. She said that when she recently visited a convenience store in uniform, there was an unmasked customer leaving. Another customer asked my friend "They weren't wearing a mask, why didn't you stop them?" She told us that she replied "I'm not the mask police".

 
Doug B said:
Two personal anecdotes from yesterday:

1) Was at one of our local WalMart stores Friday morning, in New Orleans proper. There were four or five yellow-vested WalMart employees (health ambassadors?) and two NOPD deputies stationed in the “lobby” area of the store (near the shopping carts, drink machines, greeter stand, etc.).

You’ll hear a lot of politicians say “we can’t enforce a mask mandate” and thus beg off making the hard decisions. New Orleans mayor Latoya Cantrell isn’t perfect, but she’s right on the money regarding public enforcement of the mask mandate. No one’s getting ticketed or arrested for showing up somewhere in New Orleans without a face covering. But people will get arrested for trespassing after making a scene in front of a store that won’t admit their bare-faced self.
Click to expand...
Yeah- I don't really buy the argument by these leaders that we should not allow municipalities to put in mandates just because you can't enforce it.  Put it in and more people will comply than before - it's pretty simple.  And I'm fine with what you post above - seems like the common sense approach.

 
TheWinz said:
Connecticut ranks 48th with 1 death per 811 residents (4,396 out of 3,565,284)

To give you an idea of how bad New England got hit early on, here are some amazing numbers...

Florida just passed CT in overall deaths, but is nowhere near CT's death rate.
Florida ranks 27th with 1 death per 4,470 residents (4,805 out of 21,477,729)
To reach CT levels, FL would need to have 21,678 more deaths, and that's if CT has no more deaths.  FL's single day record is 156, and at that pace, FL will equal CT's death per resident in 4 and a half months.
Click to expand...
And our governor is walking and talking like he is a hero and saved us all... 

 
Doug B said:
Two personal anecdotes from yesterday:

1) Was at one of our local WalMart stores Friday morning, in New Orleans proper. There were four or five yellow-vested WalMart employees (health ambassadors?) and two NOPD deputies stationed in the “lobby” area of the store (near the shopping carts, drink machines, greeter stand, etc.).

You’ll hear a lot of politicians say “we can’t enforce a mask mandate” and thus beg off making the hard decisions. New Orleans mayor Latoya Cantrell isn’t perfect, but she’s right on the money regarding public enforcement of the mask mandate. No one’s getting ticketed or arrested for showing up somewhere in New Orleans without a face covering. But people will get arrested for trespassing after making a scene in front of a store that won’t admit their bare-faced self.

2) Went swimming in a family friend's backyard. Family friend is a parole officer in a suburban N.O. department. She said that when she recently visited a convenience store in uniform, there was an unmasked customer leaving. Another customer asked my friend "They weren't wearing a mask, why didn't you stop them?" She told us that she replied "I'm not the mask police".
Click to expand...
In Miami-Dade county and it's 34 municipalities, code enforcement officers are also helping to enforce the mask rule. Some cities, such as Miami Beach, have hired staff specifically to enforce masks and distancing rules. Several restaurants have been shut down already. 

 
CR69 said:
WTF 

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEFbTmS1lGLRN21XEs-fmQWgqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowocv1CjCSptoCMLrUpgU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen
Click to expand...
The headline of that CNN article is "85 infants under age 1 tested positive for coronavirus in one Texas county".

This is not a drum that I would usually beat ... but that whole page is clickbait. The alarming headline. The top picture on the page is not of an infected infant, but a night-vision drone shot of a purported "COVID party". The next picture on the page is a shot of a teacher teaching to a classroom "filled" with three children space far apart.

And then, 2/3 of the way into the article:

"We currently have 85 babies under the age of one year in Nueces County that have all tested positive for Covid-19," said Annette Rodriguez, director of public health for Corpus Christi Nueces County.

"These babies have not even had their first birthday yet. Please help us stop the spread of this disease."

She did not provide additional details on their conditions.
Click to expand...
The bolded is a problem. If "infant testing positive" means "sick baby" or "baby in compromised health", say so. The scientific consensus to date (as far as I'm aware) is that these are 85 infants who won't get symptoms and who won't have any lingering health problems after clearing the virus. If that consensus is incorrect or else lacks nuance, spell it out.

 
pre-print of course, but pretty large study... damn

A major clinical trial finds no benefit of hydroxychloroquine in treating covid-19

tl;dr: 

There are a few major takeaways from this study. First, this study represents the largest and most important randomized clinical trial on the use of HCQ in hospitalized covid-19 patients to date. Patients receiving HCQ were randomized to the drug or not, whereas in previous observational studies (in which researchers looked back at charts of previous cases) sicker patients were often exposed to HCQ, thereby introducing selection bias (in other words, it is possible that patients who received HCQ in those studies fared worse because they were more seriously ill at the outset). In the final analysis, these new results from the RECOVERY study highlight a lack of mortality reduction among patients who received HCQ, and an apparent association with (if not a direct cause of) increased hospital lengths of stay and the need for mechanical ventilation. The argument for HCQ use in covid-19 is quickly dying. 
Click to expand...

 
mr roboto said:
This is 100% true. Most Americans underestimated this thing. Thanks in large part to the federal leadership downplaying it. 
Click to expand...
I don't know that I would say "most," but rather... enough. For the most part, the divide begins along party lines. But even among the party that continues to ignore science, the medical community, viral experts etc., a fair portion of them are smart enough to realize unfounded hogwash when they hear it. Unfortunately, this thing is so viral that even if you end up with 1/3rd of the nation with their heads buried in the sand, it is enough to give us the result we are seeing today. Admittedly it doesn't help that many of the truly idiotic are somehow or other in charge of entire states.

 
DallasDMac said:
I don't know that I would say "most," but rather... enough. For the most part, the divide begins along party lines. But even among the party that continues to ignore science, the medical community, viral experts etc., a fair portion of them are smart enough to realize unfounded hogwash when they hear it. Unfortunately, this thing is so viral that even if you end up with 1/3rd of the nation with their heads buried in the sand, it is enough to give us the result we are seeing today. Admittedly it doesn't help that many of the truly idiotic are somehow or other in charge of entire states.
Click to expand...
I think now a majority of people understand the seriousness.  Especially after seeing massive spikes due to re-opening too early. In May I would venture to guess that the majority of Americans were under playing the seriousness of this pandemic.

 
460 positive in-patients at Miami's Jackson Health System. This was unthinkable 6 weeks ago. A breakdown of their status would be useful. There is a high daily discharge, so length of stay is likely short for many patients. 

County ICU beds at a high, but there is still capacity at Jackson and Mount Sinai. If trends continue, that won't be true in 2 weeks.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacksonHealth/status/1284581492912521216?cxt=HHwWgIC8ofqD4NMjAAAA

https://mobile.twitter.com/conarck/status/1284561008569311232?cxt=HHwWgIC7gc7b1tMjAAAA

 
I think I’ve lost my last bit of hope for humanity. A college classmate who lives in rural, small town Iowa posted on Facebook asking people who live in or have traveled to the southern states if it’s as bad as the media says because they have a family trip to Florida in a couple weeks.

I respond with an honest assessment of my experiences in Arizona, how widespread it is, how many people I know that have it and the now frequent interactions I have on a daily basis, etc. My response falls on deaf ears, disappointing but not surprising. But then the other responses - several saying they went to Florida recently or planning on it and not considering changing plans.

Then her husband enters and starts spouting about this being America and not being scared of a manufactured crisis. Then address his wife telling her that they’re not going to be a bunch (cats) and they’re going to Florida and not bringing masks. Then she deleted the post.

Its just mind boggling that people are flying right into a hotspot of pandemic...for vacation. People who live in areas that can easily avoid major impact without taking many precautions. And this isn’t some uneducated person who barely made it through high school, she graduated pharmacy school with me. She now works in a retail pharmacy in a grocery store with a largely elderly population where masks are barely used. We’re never gonna beat this virus.

 
Biff84 said:
I think I’ve lost my last bit of hope for humanity. A college classmate who lives in rural, small town Iowa posted on Facebook asking people who live in or have traveled to the southern states if it’s as bad as the media says because they have a family trip to Florida in a couple weeks.

I respond with an honest assessment of my experiences in Arizona, how widespread it is, how many people I know that have it and the now frequent interactions I have on a daily basis, etc. My response falls on deaf ears, disappointing but not surprising. But then the other responses - several saying they went to Florida recently or planning on it and not considering changing plans.

Then her husband enters and starts spouting about this being America and not being scared of a manufactured crisis. Then address his wife telling her that they’re not going to be a bunch (cats) and they’re going to Florida and not bringing masks. Then she deleted the post.

Its just mind boggling that people are flying right into a hotspot of pandemic...for vacation. People who live in areas that can easily avoid major impact without taking many precautions. And this isn’t some uneducated person who barely made it through high school, she graduated pharmacy school with me. She now works in a retail pharmacy in a grocery store with a largely elderly population where masks are barely used. We’re never gonna beat this virus.
Click to expand...
Depends where in Florida. Some beaches in smaller towns are probably relatively safe, if you stay away from crowds. I've been to Ft. Myers in the past few years, both winter and summer, and most places are definitely crowded, such as by the pier where there are lots of restaurants and retail. On the other hand, if you get a house rental on Captiva, and cook most of your food, the risk is much reduced. Wearing a mask will be mandatory at Publix and many places in Florida, even outside of the hot spots. 

 
SoBeDad said:
Depends where in Florida. Some beaches in smaller towns are probably relatively safe, if you stay away from crowds. I've been to Ft. Myers in the past few years, both winter and summer, and most places are definitely crowded, such as by the pier where there are lots of restaurants and retail. On the other hand, if you get a house rental on Captiva, and cook most of your food, the risk is much reduced. Wearing a mask will be mandatory at Publix and many places in Florida, even outside of the hot spots. 
Click to expand...
Daytona?

 
culdeus said:
They are for sure getting sicker and clogging the hospitals up
Click to expand...
anecdotally speaking, not true...at least re. COVID

ICUs in general do see a higher percentage of obesity then in the general population...it's a big factor to COPD/CHF....but hasn't seemed that way for COVID

 
Biff84 said:
Daytona?
Click to expand...
Probably crowded in most beaches, restaurants, etc. Maybe off the beaten track there is an uncrowded beach or an uncrowded venue. @TheCommish may know better. And since Miami area beaches are only open to walking, some people from here are going north.

My co-worker is renting a small place on Siesta Key for her family, planning to avoid inside crowds. I think the risk being outdoors on the beach is not great, unless you're in a huge crowd.

 
Doug B said:
The headline of that CNN article is "85 infants under age 1 tested positive for coronavirus in one Texas county".

This is not a drum that I would usually beat ... but that whole page is clickbait. The alarming headline. The top picture on the page is not of an infected infant, but a night-vision drone shot of a purported "COVID party". The next picture on the page is a shot of a teacher teaching to a classroom "filled" with three children space far apart.

And then, 2/3 of the way into the article:

The bolded is a problem. If "infant testing positive" means "sick baby" or "baby in compromised health", say so. The scientific consensus to date (as far as I'm aware) is that these are 85 infants who won't get symptoms and who won't have any lingering health problems after clearing the virus. If that consensus is incorrect or else lacks nuance, spell it out.
Click to expand...
Will not be shocked if we later learn that this was mostly covid antibody testing and it was from breastfeeding. 

The lack of details is odd if it were a true infant outbreak.

ETA: In looking at this county they list an insanely high number of their cases as community spread so detail isnt exactly their strong suit. 

More edit...SHe has already revised her statement. Now it is 52 under the age of 1 since March 21, 85 under the age of 2. Total of ten hospitalized(out of 85 under 2). 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
parasaurolophus said:
Will not be shocked if we later learn that this was mostly covid antibody testing and it was from breastfeeding. 

The lack of details is odd if it were a true infant outbreak.
Click to expand...
Maybe they just test all newborns? Passed by breastfeeding? Not sure. Seems odd, but I don't want to just discount it.

 
Exactly two weeks after July 4th and San Antonio had 1100+ new positive cases. We have been running under 500 that past few days. Is anyone even remotely surprised?

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
The argument for HCQ use in covid-19 is quickly dying. 
Click to expand...
There is a segment of the population that would guzzle gallons of this magic elixir if they were infected.

The politicalization of this virus has killed any hope we have of beating it through a combined USA USA effort. We devolved to relying on major businesses to mandate masks whilst leadership pats themselves on the back about what a great job they are doing. Ridiculous the amount of just a flu folks still out there. 

 
mr roboto said:
Day 10 after my test has come and gone.  Called the clinic tonight and they told me LabCorp is backed up. They are hoping to get my results tomorrow. Absolutely frustrating and mind blowing. 
Click to expand...
This makes me really scared with the numbers we're seeing and also knowing that there is a delay in the reporting of deaths. This thing could actually be 3x worse than we think it is right now. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
[icon] said:
Bumping this for more info 

Found this: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7251362/

Got more? 
Click to expand...
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342978102_Preprint_Predicting_Criticality_in_COVID-19_Patients

This is hard for me to follow, but was where I was quoting the lactic thresholds as a predictor.  These markers that show as a predictor of serious disease are often thought to be improved with exercise.  Though the level of improvement vs. the level of deterioration with the virus is not in my knowledge base (i.e. virus could easily overrun any Gainz bro)

 
bradyfan said:
The health organizations in every country must take care of at least two things.  I hope China does more on #2 because it is especially important when 2019-nCoV has deceivingly mild initial symptoms.

1. Test, monitor, isolate and treat suspected patients.

2. Educate their people on how to avoid catching the virus and what to do if they get sick.
Click to expand...
Well yeah about that. 

 
mr roboto said:
Day 10 after my test has come and gone.  Called the clinic tonight and they told me LabCorp is backed up. They are hoping to get my results tomorrow. Absolutely frustrating and mind blowing. 
Click to expand...
Not only is it frustrating, it’s also counterproductive to stopping the spread. If you need to wait 10 days to get tests results, you should be quarantining until you’re cleared but will you? That depends on if your job is going to allow that many days off and many won’t.

If you know it’s going to take that long and you have minor or no symptoms, you’re probably just going to keep going to work while you might be contagious.

 
1 in 86 people in the US has tested positive for Covid.  Not 1 of the 600 Leronlimab HIV trial patients has contracted it.  Interesting numbers.

 
JaxBill said:
A shred of good news is Florida keeps inching back down towards 1 at rt.live. Currently down 1.03. We'll see if this continues this coming week.
Click to expand...
I'm currently watching the national news. The actions of young people is sickening. Street parties with HUNDREDS of unmasked attendees in both Florida and NY. Dr. Fauci calling them out directly for their responsibility in spreading a pandemic. WTH is wrong with these people?

 
beer 30 said:
There is a segment of the population that would guzzle gallons of this magic elixir if they were infected.

The politicalization of this virus has killed any hope we have of beating it through a combined USA USA effort. We devolved to relying on major businesses to mandate masks whilst leadership pats themselves on the back about what a great job they are doing. Ridiculous the amount of just a flu folks still out there. 
Click to expand...
this is the part i cant get past :(

 
BassNBrew said:
1 in 86 people in the US has tested positive for Covid.  Not 1 of the 600 Leronlimab HIV trial patients has contracted it.  Interesting numbers.
Click to expand...
At this point, I'm getting pretty confident that we'll have a vaccine sometime early next year.  The challenge is going to be getting everybody vaccinated.  That's a fairly significant production and logistical problem that I no longer have any confidence in our (America's) ability to solve.

 
Anecdotal story from my cousin who's a PA in an ER in NJ. She said everyone that came into the ER in March or April had Covid. (Just clarifying she probably didn't literally mean everyone for the arguing people on this site.) However, here is the interesting part. She said the people coming into the ER with Covid now are not nearly as sick as the ones who came in March and April. Also, they cut her hours to two days a week. 

 
My 74 dad stayed in NY where he lives through March and April and just drove to FL (Boca Raton) last week where he owns a condo. Talk about doing things backwards.

 
renesauz said:
beer 30 said:
There is a segment of the population that would guzzle gallons of this magic elixir if they were infected.

The politicalization of this virus has killed any hope we have of beating it through a combined USA USA effort. We devolved to relying on major businesses to mandate masks whilst leadership pats themselves on the back about what a great job they are doing. Ridiculous the amount of just a flu folks still out there. 
Click to expand...
this is the part i cant get past :(
Click to expand...
There are still tons of places in our country where there has been pretty much zero spread. 

Most of those places have still had to follow stay at home orders. This will naturally cause a large amount of skepticism and anti government sentiment. 

 
mr roboto said:
Day 10 after my test has come and gone.  Called the clinic tonight and they told me LabCorp is backed up. They are hoping to get my results tomorrow. Absolutely frustrating and mind blowing. 
Click to expand...
Sorry GB....I can completely relate.  Don't be surprised if it comes back "inconclusive".  We had a very similar experience early on.  Hang in there!

 
parasaurolophus said:
There are still tons of places in our country where there has been pretty much zero spread. 

Most of those places have still had to follow stay at home orders. This will naturally cause a large amount of skepticism and anti government sentiment. 
Click to expand...
Few questions here...what do you mean by "tons"?  Last I saw (Thursday) 40+ states were experiencing increase.  And then what do you mean by "naturally"?  I can see this last statement pertaining to a specific segment of the population back when we didn't have the technology to observe what's going on around us.  It should be clear to anyone paying attention that just because "it isn't happening here right now" doesn't mean it will stay that way if precautions aren't taken.  Remember WVA?  We heard this out of that state a couple months ago and now they are rising in cases along with everyone else.  

 
culdeus said:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342978102_Preprint_Predicting_Criticality_in_COVID-19_Patients

This is hard for me to follow, but was where I was quoting the lactic thresholds as a predictor.  These markers that show as a predictor of serious disease are often thought to be improved with exercise.  Though the level of improvement vs. the level of deterioration with the virus is not in my knowledge base (i.e. virus could easily overrun any Gainz bro)
Click to expand...
So the serum lactate used in the study referenced is a well-established marker for critical illness. It is part of the Surviving Sepsis bundle and its use is standard of care in assessing septic patients in the ER/inpatient/ICU settings.

Serum lactate is a hyperacute marker of tissue ischemia. It is often re-checked within hours of initial testing to assess treatment response. It can normalize after a single 1L fluid bolus.

All that’s to say it’s not the same as lactate threshold.

Neither is serum LDH, which is used clinically as a surrogate marker for cellular turnover, most often in oncology.

 
CR69 said:
That's what I got out of it. If it's needed annually, that would work. But if you need a booster every 3-4 months that's not going to imo. 
Click to expand...
Would this also mean that the idea of herd immunity is impossible even if we could somehow do it safely and logistically?

 
mr roboto said:
Day 10 after my test has come and gone.  Called the clinic tonight and they told me LabCorp is backed up. They are hoping to get my results tomorrow. Absolutely frustrating and mind blowing. 
Click to expand...
??

You recovered? Sick? Why did you get tested in the first place? Sorry havent read last few (hundred) pages. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
There are still tons of places in our country where there has been pretty much zero spread. 

Most of those places have still had to follow stay at home orders. This will naturally cause a large amount of skepticism and anti government sentiment. 
Click to expand...
Just spent some time on my county's dashboard. It isnt the greatest, but still plenty of data. 

We are testing at 4.8% positive/test.

41 deaths. 400k population. Couldnt get the exact age breakdowns of the deaths, but I can get deaths by census tract. Of the 41 deaths 28 are from four little spots on the map, which leads me to believe they were primarily nursing homes. I am aware if one nursing home outbreak that lines up perfectly on the map. 

My county has to rank as one of the most opened up counties in the US and has been that way since May 20th. Tons of commerce in this area. My city has the third largest aggregate real estate value in my state even though our population is small because of the commercial real estate. Not only was our existing mall just massively expanded, they built a brand new one on the same street. 

It is straight time warp suburbia. Predominantly single family housing. Not very diverse, but definitely skews older. 

If you stopped random people and asked if they know somebody that has died from it you would actually have a hard time getting somebody to say yes. 

One of my HCW friends had to fully PPE covid style suit up for the first time this month. 

Now obviously a group of people living in this area that are not very well tuned in to the news arent really going to see this as such a big issue compared to the way other places view it. 

 
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