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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

parasaurolophus said:
Could you put a couple air purifiers in the end of the pharmacy you work in the least amount of time? To help create air draw away from you?

Get some 20 inch box fans pointing out with 20x20 merv 13 filters in the back of them? 
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I don’t know that it would make much difference. The job requires us to work in close proximity with our paths crossing frequently throughout the day. It’s a baked in risk of the job. We do quite a bit to reduce it but it’s just unavoidable. Just like family, I can reduce the risk they get it from me but I’ll never eliminate it.

 
Of the 3,300 positive cases this weekend in San Antonio, 1 in 10 were pediatric. i.e. 10% were under the age of 18. Definitely not the news people hoping to send kids back to school were looking for.

 
Don't Noonan said:
Doug B said:
So basically 3.5 to 4 months? If they didn't mean "14-17 days" ... a test that slow is close to worthless to the patient.
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Exactly, the results won't mean anything by the time she gets them and she will have to continue to stay quarantined until she has no symptoms.  
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We don't have enough testing capacity in this country. That's really all there is to it.

 
shader said:
Feel free to back up your opinions with links, or kindly move on to someone else.
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:lol:  OK man, I shouldn't have even posted anything.  Not interested in a pissing contest or having to "prove" anything.  

Bottom line is, when one thinks of the "doom and gloom" type of poster in this thread, you are at the top of the list.  Perception, in this case, is reality.  And I don't need to provide any links to prove to others what is clear perception.  

 
Rich Conway said:
Per the recent South Korea study, they found that kids under 10 transmit about half as well as adults, and kids 10-19 in an equal fashion to adults.  That would mean that, given current outbreaks, allowing even young children to congregate in, say, Florida is a worse idea than allowing adults to congregate in a region with low incidents of cases.
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I follow many epidemiologists/virologists on Twitter, and a bevy of them have some issues with that study. Foremost among those issues is that the paper failed to show that the minors were in fact the index cases instead of just being infected simultaneously with the adults. Instead, they happened to show symptoms first and thereby assumed to be index cases.

Moreover, there have been many studies around the world suggesting the opposite--kids aren't effective vectors. This also aligns with what we've observed from across the globe.

It's sensible to me that the older cohort of kids certainly would be better vectors than younger kids, that makes sense. But at the same time, those older kids would have a better understanding of keeping appropriate distance/not touching, etc.

Regardless, we all have to take whatever risks we're comfortable with. To date, I feel my kids' social health far outweighs the inherent risks of infection. 

 
nirad3 said:
:lol:  OK man, I shouldn't have even posted anything.  Not interested in a pissing contest or having to "prove" anything.  

Bottom line is, when one thinks of the "doom and gloom" type of poster in this thread, you are at the top of the list.  Perception, in this case, is reality.  And I don't need to provide any links to prove to others what is clear perception.  
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Absolutely 

 
Pulled up to my parents' place today to find a fire engine and ambulance in front of the neighbor's place.  Turns out their 16-year old daughter was really sick, having trouble breathing, etc.... they are thinking mono but never know.  This would be the first COVID case that would "hit home" in any way for us.

 
nirad3 said:
Bottom line is, when one thinks of the "doom and gloom" type of poster in this thread, you are at the top of the list.  Perception, in this case, is reality.  And I don't need to provide any links to prove to others what is clear perception.  
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I don’t want to stir up anything but just want @shader to know that I really appreciate his contributions to this thread.

 
jamny said:
I've always been an optimist and that hasn't changed. While I do believe it will be a rough winter, I think with all the treatments and vaccines being worked on we will be able to knock this down quite a bit by next spring. Taking a page out of the history books, the Spanish Flu was virtually gone in 1919. I understand this is different and there will be long term effects on people that contracted it but I predict a new Roaring 20's once this is wiped out. 
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I believe the surviving companies will thrive, but I'm afraid a lot of that success will come at the expense of the working class.  Lay offs and stream lining will be the theme to maximize profits just like before the pandemic.  Basically, this will be an excuse to fire as many as possible to "get back to normal."  

Really hope I'm wrong.  

 
DallasDMac said:
Of the 3,300 positive cases this weekend in San Antonio, 1 in 10 were pediatric. i.e. 10% were under the age of 18. Definitely not the news people hoping to send kids back to school were looking for.
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Yeah have to think we are looking at virtual learning again at this point. 

 
nirad3 said:
:lol:  OK man, I shouldn't have even posted anything.  Not interested in a pissing contest or having to "prove" anything.  

Bottom line is, when one thinks of the "doom and gloom" type of poster in this thread, you are at the top of the list.  Perception, in this case, is reality.  And I don't need to provide any links to prove to others what is clear perception.  
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I take offense to this comment. What am I? Chopped Gloom?

 
Battersbox said:
To date, I feel my kids' social health far outweighs the inherent risks of infection. 
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Agree, but this can easily be satisfied with setting up times for kids to get together and play in smaller groups - there's no need to jump right into full on 30 kids in an enclosed space for 8 hours. Have them meet a the park and play/throw a ball around, ride bikes, if someone has a pool have a few friends over and hang out in the backyard, just no wrestling in the pool. There are way more responsible ways to scratch the social itch.

Definitely not meaning to imply this is you or your motivation (thus the added emphasis on spacing this part of the response away from the rest) , but way too many people that I've talked to that are pushing for reopening schools are essentially just sick of having their kids around all the time and at the same time are not allowing them to have responsible social interactions.

 
acarey50 said:
Agree, but this can easily be satisfied with setting up times for kids to get together and play in smaller groups - there's no need to jump right into full on 30 kids in an enclosed space for 8 hours. Have them meet a the park and play/throw a ball around, ride bikes, if someone has a pool have a few friends over and hang out in the backyard, just no wrestling in the pool. There are way more responsible ways to scratch the social itch.
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This is exactly what we've done.  Bike rides at the park, swimming in the pool, etc.  Our kids get some social interaction with friends just about every day and they're thriving.  I'll be keeping them home from school in the fall and have no worries about their social health.  Making them sit at a desk with plexiglass dividers and a mask on their face 7 hours a day sounds worse for their mental health than doing at-home learning and still seeing their friends.  :shrug:  

 
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nirad3 said:
:lol:  OK man, I shouldn't have even posted anything.  Not interested in a pissing contest or having to "prove" anything.  

Bottom line is, when one thinks of the "doom and gloom" type of poster in this thread, you are at the top of the list.  Perception, in this case, is reality.  And I don't need to provide any links to prove to others what is clear perception.  
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Hes the absolute worst🤢

 
acarey50 said:
Agree, but this can easily be satisfied with setting up times for kids to get together and play in smaller groups - there's no need to jump right into full on 30 kids in an enclosed space for 8 hours. Have them meet a the park and play/throw a ball around, ride bikes, if someone has a pool have a few friends over and hang out in the backyard, just no wrestling in the pool. There are way more responsible ways to scratch the social itch.

Definitely not meaning to imply this is you or your motivation (thus the added emphasis on spacing this part of the response away from the rest) , but way too many people that I've talked to that are pushing for reopening schools are essentially just sick of having their kids around all the time and at the same time are not allowing them to have responsible social interactions.
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My reply was in response to letting kids socialize in an area where cases are high. Wasn't really about school.

As far as school though, I think kids should go to back to class (and my wife is a teacher). Personally, I think districts should make provisions for teachers who are over 60 or who are at risk in some other way. Other than that, I think kids are better off attending classes right now. That's just my opinion, based on a mosaic view of the world right now. 

However, I wouldn't tell anyone else how to feel about sending their kids to school. In an ideal scenario, parents would have the option for either in person or virtual. That may be far-fetched for many districts though.

 
cosjobs said:
Without an abundance of contact tracing and quick testing, we may never know for a fact. 
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Well, Europe and Asia will probably be able to tell us soon. You know, cuz they have low case rates and effective contact tracing.

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
This is exactly what we've done.  Bike rides at the park, swimming in the pool, etc.  Our kids get some social interaction with friends just about every day and they're thriving.  I'll be keeping them home from school in the fall and have no worries about their social health.  Making them sit at a desk with plexiglass dividers and a mask on their face 7 hours a day sounds worse for their mental health than doing at-home learning and still seeing their friends.  :shrug:  
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I agree that if the measures taken within schools are too draconian, kids might just be better off at home. I just don't think the measures need to be that extreme.

 
AAABatteries said:
Outstanding potential news

ETA - @The Commish - I think you’ve been outspoken about not getting a vaccine initially.  You may be interested to watch.  Not looking to change your mind but this guys interview reassures me that it should be safe.  tl;dw - they are fast tracking not by taking shortcuts but rather eliminating red tape 
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Much work is also being done in parallel.

Moderna is recruiting for vaccine trial volunteers locally starting next week. This would be a Phase 3 trial, the last trial before FDA approval, licensing and manufacturing. Trial participants will be tracked for two years after receiving either the trial vaccine or a placebo. However, I don’t know whether or not the vaccine can be approved before those two years are up.

 
I post rarely, but still provide updates for Connecticut.  We stopped posting numbers on weekends, so here are the combined numbers for Sat, Sun, & Mon:

Deaths - 10
Positivity - 0.59% (162/27323)
Hospitalizations - decreased from 66 to 54

I did finally get to see deaths for CT nursing homes, and it's horrible.  Of our 4406 deaths, 2831 (64%) are from nursing homes.  I don't know how this percentage compares to the rest of the USA, but we have had more deaths in nursing homes than 35 other states have had TOTAL deaths.

 
Doug B said:
Much work is also being done in parallel.

Moderna is recruiting for vaccine trial volunteers locally starting next week. This would be a Phase 3 trial, the last trial before FDA approval, licensing and manufacturing. Trial participants will be tracked for two years after receiving either the trial vaccine or a placebo. However, I don’t know whether or not the vaccine can be approved before those two years are up.
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Any idea about payment for study participants? My 46 year old roommate and her son asked me. I told her there could be side-effects such as experienced by this guy who developed a 103 degree fever after receiving the high dose in Phase 1, which apparently will not be used in Phase 3. There are 2 study sites in Miami, per clinicaltrials.gov.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/26/moderna-vaccine-candidate-trial-participant-severe-reaction/

 
parasaurolophus said:
1. It was a theory trying to explain data that made no sense.

2. Turns out the data made no sense because it wasnt true. Hence the edits i added. 

3. Why do they test for antibodies in any person? 
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At this point in time, antibody tests are of limited utility. In a a high prevalence area with a good test, they might be useful to show prior exposure to the virus.

There’s little reason to think newborns would ever be tested for antibodies. In addition to fundamental issues with test characteristics, maternal IgG crosses the placenta and all types of antibodies (esp. IgA) are found in breast milk. 

 
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perbach said:
Read an article early on in this crisis that suggested high altitude essentially immobilized this virus.    
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Airplanes are pressurized to 6-8000 ft.

Quito, Ecuador is over 9000 feet elevation. Bogata, Columbia is 8600 feet. Mexico City is 7300 feet.

All three places have plenty of covid.

 
DallasDMac said:
Sorry, I shouldn't have replied like I did. I realize you don't know what you don't know. But please realize, when you are talking the human body, not all things are equal. You can't just look at an age sand say "your risk is this" without knowing a person' full background. So apologies for going off. I hope you can understand my initial reaction.

p.s. Note to self, never post your initial reaction.
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Your reaction was fine. While the rest of his post was reasonable, characterizing concern over the pandemic as hysteria is insensitive at the minimum, and arguably much worse:

hys•te•ri•a hĭ-stĕr′ē-ə, -stîr′-

n. Behavior exhibiting excessive or uncontrollable emotion, such as fear or panic.

n. A group of psychiatric symptoms, including heightened emotionality, attention-seeking behavior, and physical symptoms in the absence of organic pathology. The symptoms of hysteria are currently attributed to any of several psychiatric conditions, including somatization disorder, multiple personality disorder, and histrionic personality disorder. The term hysteria is no longer used in clinical use.

n. A nervous disease involving no recognizable anatomical lesion, characterized by unrestrained desire to attract. attention and sympathy, more or less coordinated convulsions, globus and clavus hystericus, anæsthesia, hyperæsthesia, motor paralysis, vasomotor derangements, etc. Women are much more frequently affected in this way than men. Also called hysterics.
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Terminalxylem said:
Airplanes are pressurized to 6-8000 ft.

Quito, Ecuador is over 9000 feet elevation. Bogata, Columbia is 8600 feet. Mexico City is 7300 feet.

All three places have plenty of covid.
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Never said it was a legit article.   Pretty sure it was an "Onion" type publication.   But we havent seen any cases of humans affected above 17000 feet, so this may be some merit to this.   Something to keep an eye on.  😉👍

 
Biff84 said:
I don’t know that it would make much difference. The job requires us to work in close proximity with our paths crossing frequently throughout the day. It’s a baked in risk of the job. We do quite a bit to reduce it but it’s just unavoidable. Just like family, I can reduce the risk they get it from me but I’ll never eliminate it.
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You need one of these https://www.legendbrandsrestoration.com/Products/DefendAir-HEPA-500

Seriously, air scrubbers are going to be a part of everyday life soon enough. Whether installed on the buildings HVAC system or these portables, it’s going to happen and soon. Not perfect but better than nothing at all.

 
AAABatteries said:
Outstanding potential news

ETA - @The Commish - I think you’ve been outspoken about not getting a vaccine initially.  You may be interested to watch.  Not looking to change your mind but this guys interview reassures me that it should be safe.  tl;dw - they are fast tracking not by taking shortcuts but rather eliminating red tape 
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I have been...I'm open to watching and learning....I'll take a look.  Sadly, I probably wouldn't think twice about this if it were in another country.  That's where I'm at with my trust levels of our government and companies making trillions off our "health".  

ETA:  I've been following the stuff going on at Oxford.  It's one of my personal glimmers of hope.  On BBC they've been talking about progress.  In their current state, they are trying to tamp down some side affects that are unpleasant (though NOT unmanageable or deadly).  They haven't gone further than that in descriptions, but I am guessing, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, stomach cramping. etc  

 
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beer 30 said:
You need one of these https://www.legendbrandsrestoration.com/Products/DefendAir-HEPA-500

Seriously, air scrubbers are going to be a part of everyday life soon enough. Whether installed on the buildings HVAC system or these portables, it’s going to happen and soon. Not perfect but better than nothing at all.
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Yep.

Also, over time, HVAC standards will change again. Once upon a time it was increasing energy efficiency ... and now, a 2020 home HVAC system is a different animal than a 1980 HVAC system.

The next innovations will be frequency of air exchange and a wider adoption of HEPA filtering.

 
Terminalxylem said:
Your reaction was fine. While the rest of his post was reasonable, characterizing concern over the pandemic as hysteria is insensitive at the minimum, and arguably much worse:
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That is not what I did. 

There's a big difference between being concerned and stating things akin to "America is DOOMED!", the latter of which is what I was replying to. Reasonable people obviously understood that in here. 

 
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perbach said:
Never said it was a legit article.   Pretty sure it was an "Onion" type publication.   But we havent seen any cases of humans affected above 17000 feet, so this may be some merit to this.   Something to keep an eye on.  😉👍
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There was that sci-fi movie about people living on a train and eating humans. Perhaps living on airplanes is in our future

 
Terminalxylem said:
At this point in time, antibody tests are of limited utility. In a a high prevalence area with a good test, they might be useful to show prior exposure to the virus.

There’s little reason to think newborns would ever be tested for antibodies. In addition to fundamental issues with test characteristics, maternal IgG crosses the placenta and all types of antibodies (esp. IgA) are found in breast milk. 
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Whoa. Antibodies are found in breast milk? Who knew.

 
Monday numbers 

Deaths in the 21 "Outbreak States"

(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)

July 20:  404 deaths

Last three Mondays: (276,286,404)

7-day average in deaths

7/7: 340

7/8: 361

7/9: 391

7/10: 421

7/11: 474

7/12: 496

7/13: 497

7/14: 513

7/15: 532

7/16: 545

7/17: 570

7/18: 589

7/19: 594

7/20: 611

 
Are we still at just 21 states as "outbreak"?  Seems like with 40+ more increasing volumes daily, it's time to reevaluate that number.  Unless of course, you are just doing it for consistency purposes...either way, this is a tough update to watch these days.

 
TheWinz said:
I post rarely, but still provide updates for Connecticut.  We stopped posting numbers on weekends, so here are the combined numbers for Sat, Sun, & Mon:

Deaths - 10
Positivity - 0.59% (162/27323)
Hospitalizations - decreased from 66 to 54

I did finally get to see deaths for CT nursing homes, and it's horrible.  Of our 4406 deaths, 2831 (64%) are from nursing homes.  I don't know how this percentage compares to the rest of the USA, but we have had more deaths in nursing homes than 35 other states have had TOTAL deaths.
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Glad CT is still doing so well. That .59 is amazing. 

RI had an even higher percentage of nursing home deaths at ~78% based on the breakdown on the RI DHS page. Roughly 740 of the 995 so far. One of the things our Governor mentions as her biggest regret - sending confirmed cases back to these homes. 

 
perbach said:
Never said it was a legit article.   Pretty sure it was an "Onion" type publication.   But we havent seen any cases of humans affected above 17000 feet, so this may be some merit to this.   Something to keep an eye on.  😉👍
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Antarctica also remains covid-free. And emperor penguins certainly aren’t social distancing.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
That is not what I did. 

There's a big difference between being concerned and stating things akin to "America is DOOMED!", the latter of which is what I was replying to. Reasonable people obviously understood that in here. 
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Although you got many “likes”, your word choice was poor.

 
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