Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Sarcasm aside, I don’t think the antibodies in breast milk make it to infants’ bloodstream in appreciable levels. So they probably wouldn’t be measurable in covid testing.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-second-coronavirus-stimulus-check-updates-20200720-hvyh7hhwnbegblt4nmxbh43znq-story.html
Anyone with good sleuthing skills care to take a crack at how much truth is there in this article?
"But the administration was panning the proposal's $25 billion in new funds for virus testing and tracing and insisting on the payroll tax cut, Republicans said."
Attempts to block money for testing? More importantly, is it true there's unspent money that was earmarked for testing in the CARES Act?
"Another Republican familiar with the process said about half of the $25 billion previously approved remains unspent."
Anyone with good sleuthing skills care to take a crack at how much truth is there in this article?
"But the administration was panning the proposal's $25 billion in new funds for virus testing and tracing and insisting on the payroll tax cut, Republicans said."
Attempts to block money for testing? More importantly, is it true there's unspent money that was earmarked for testing in the CARES Act?
"Another Republican familiar with the process said about half of the $25 billion previously approved remains unspent."
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Well, at least you backed down when another poster pointed out everyone concerned about covid isn’t hysterical.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
beer 30
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Sure. I was biting my e-tongue over your original post, but really wanted DMac to know he had no need to apologize for his response.
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shader
Footballguy
I definitely should go back and analyze that. It really requires looking at every state and judging if their cases are rising or not, which is a big lift. But maybe I'll carve out some time for that later on. That being said, I'm almost done tracking deaths. The only reason I started was because this thread was full of people that were making the claim that deaths were dropping while cases were rising. Now that time has shown that this wave of infections will behave in a similar manner to other waves, I have no real desire to keep a scoreboard of deaths, when everyone can go look themselves.
I think it's pretty clear that deaths are rising again, so I'm not so sure how much value it is for me to point that out anymore.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I thought Osterholm's most recent podcast was basically junk as he could not have been more wishy washy on almost everything( for example he said we need to have a national policy for returning to school. Well one that allows for the local districts to make the decisions).
But one thing he said, that I think needs to be acknowledged by everybody in advance, is that people will die when kids return to school. It happens with the flu. It happens with school buses. It happens. It is going to happen. Criticized messaging saying we can return when it is safe, because safe is a subjective term.
I am not saying he is an advocate for returning to school right now. He honestly didnt really commit and clarifies right away he is going to make people mad for not committing. You can be fully against going back right now and still acknowledge that if we got case loads to a level on par with euro nations that still would never eliminate all child deaths due to covid if we returned to school.
But one thing he said, that I think needs to be acknowledged by everybody in advance, is that people will die when kids return to school. It happens with the flu. It happens with school buses. It happens. It is going to happen. Criticized messaging saying we can return when it is safe, because safe is a subjective term.
I am not saying he is an advocate for returning to school right now. He honestly didnt really commit and clarifies right away he is going to make people mad for not committing. You can be fully against going back right now and still acknowledge that if we got case loads to a level on par with euro nations that still would never eliminate all child deaths due to covid if we returned to school.
shader
Footballguy
I heard him on Rogan waaay back in March or so. Even way back then he thought school needed to be in session because we'd need all the nurses we could get. Not sure if I've ever agreed with his stance on school.
But yeah, I agree that clear messaging on school is required. Going back to school WILL raise the R0 and as you say, it will cause some deaths. If we are going to open them, we have to be prepared for that. If a school is going to shut their doors the moment a kid gets covid, then, imo, please don't waste everyone time with the reopening. Focus on remote learning.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
I don't follow this thread as much as I should. What's wrong with talking about positivity rate?
These are your numbers. Hopefully you're wrong about deaths rising and the trend continues today.
7/14 - 744
7/15 - 713
7/16 - 717
7/17 - 742
7/18 - 632
7/19 - 324
7/20 - 404
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Same, not sure what that means. I would think positivity rate is one input we need to see if we should test more or if we need to consider locking certain things down.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
You need to look at week over week. Deaths are going up - not a lot but it's concerning.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
serious question that I thought of today while wearing my mask at the gym...
is your "nose breath"TM (exhalation from your nose) as potentially infectious as your mouth breath (exhalation from your mouth)?
is your "nose breath"TM (exhalation from your nose) as potentially infectious as your mouth breath (exhalation from your mouth)?
shadyridr
Footballguy
They are not going up nearly as dramatically as Mr Doomsday keeps insisting will happen.
shader
Footballguy
Thanks for pointing that out. Definite proof of deaths rising (week over week), every single day.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Standing upright i would vote that your nose breath is less infectious to others.
Natural flow is downward.
Using machines like a cross fitter? All bets off.
Obviously makes no sense not to cover it also.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
And wouldn't that be a good thing? We pretty much know the death count, so if the deaths are part of a much larger number of cases, doesn't that mean the chances of death are much smaller than we thought?
shader
Footballguy
If your only goal in this thread is to criticize others and name call, you'll eventually get another ban. Just a pro tip, it's something you and your aliases never seem to figure out.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
From my perspective, the problem is we are still half-pregnant. We aren't fully opened really and we haven't gotten the cases and deaths under control. Someone else said it best - we managed to thread the needle of doing the absolute worst job when looking at deaths + job loss + illnesses + economic impacts. And why deaths going up is concerning is that it indicates to me we won't be fixing anything any time soon.
need2know
Footballguy
just think if its really another 96 million people? and almost all of them didn't die or even go to the hospital. pretty crazy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
If you read the study, it's pretty clear that there's no way we are anywhere close to 96M.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2768834
The "24 times" will get all the press (in some circles), but that appears to be numbers from Missouri. The researchers estimated 161k cases in Missouri, against reported cases (at the time) of 6,794.
It's possible I'm reading the tables wrong, but in no table do I read a seroprevalence of even 10%. Of course we are probably passing that now with current case counts rising.
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shader
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
makes sense to me. but it doesn't match up well with some in here. so keep it down
need2know
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I would say it's good and bad - you are right it's good that the death rate is overstated - we've known this for a while but maybe it's even more than we expected? Definitely still TBD but would help that. On the other hand - we most likely aren't getting to herd immunity and if we determine that you can be reinfected then it's not ideal. Not to mention a lot more cases means it will continue to spread like wildfire for the upcoming weeks/months.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
For breaking news like this, you'll want to provide a link. Link 1 from STAT News, published earlier today. Link 2 from The New York Times (requires registration or sign-in with a Google account).
The NYT article is actually from June 27th. The STAT News link breaks down a recently-released "meta-study" on the same CDC data detailed in the NYT article. Of interest from the STAT News article:
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Why would that be true? If more people have had it than expected, that means...well more people have had it.
If we can get reinfected...oof.
shader
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Well, we would eventually get there, assuming it's even possible but I think most everyone now thinks we will have a vaccine before it comes to that.Why would that be true? If more people have had it than expected, that means...well more people have had it.
If we can get reinfected...oof.
shader
Footballguy
It's an old study based on seroprevalence tests in 10 locations. Each location gives a different number, all of which are old, and all of which are estimations.
This isn't really a ground breaking study and we haven't really learned anything. But that one location in Missouri which supposedly estimated 24 times the cases will garner all the headlines.
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Doug B
Footballguy
This is correct. The "6 to 24" spread is not nationwide -- the numbers are completely location-dependent.
Doug B
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Well the part about "depending on location" is important. If it's not of the total number then the range of "6 to 24x" is not saying much.
matuski
Footballguy
I will use my wife. She has now been in contact with 3 different people who tested positive... they won't test her because she is asymptomatic.
Want to pump up "positivity rates" up for scary headlines? Only test symptomatic people.
eta - it is a win win for fear mongering - test more and number of infected go up, test fewer (symptomatic) and the positive % goes up. Pick and choose the headline!
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Doug B
Footballguy
Sorry, @SoBeDad ... I had mean to come back to this.
I haven't seen any information about compensation yet. I do know the name of the local outfit conducting the study, so I may place a call or go online to see if more information is out there.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Does anybody has a link for state by state and whether you have to have symptoms to get tested? Most drive up test places don't seem to require it. Any of those in Texas?
And 10% rate (roughly what Texas has) isn't that "scary". At a very quick glance it seems like Florida leads the way around 15%. Most seem to hover between 6-10%. And Texas has a very low death rate.
kutta
Footballguy
But isn't it an important number to evaluate precisely for the reason you stated?
If the positivity rate is really high, we probably aren't doing enough testing and our number of actually infected people is much higher than reported. That's the case in AZ - we have a 25% positivity rate. That means our actual case count is probably much higher than is being reported.
And FYI, in AZ, the state with the highest positivity rate, anyone can get a test, symptomatic or not. It just takes a LONG time for the results (I got tested 10 days ago still with no results).
