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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

shader said:
If you're looking for good news, there are definite signs in TX, CA, FL and AZ that case counts are hitting plateaus, if not going down.  I don't have time to delve into the % positive or look at testing to know if there are alternate explanations for that, but my assumption is that fear and heavy mask usage are causing cases to plateau.  That's a good thing.  
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jamny said:
I was noticing that yesterday, especially for AZ. A little early but good signs.
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AZ numbers are starting to look better. Masks + no inside bars/dining seem to be helping, they implemented both around 2 weeks ago IIRC. Thank goodness. 

AZ State Dashboard

Other states should take note. The mitigation measures really do work. We just have to do them aggressively, take it seriously, and the numbers come down. When they are low we can focus on kids getting their lives back (not partying at the bar/club, that was a mistake we hopefully learn from). 

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
AZ numbers are starting to look better. Masks + no inside bars/dining seem to be helping, they implemented both around 2 weeks ago IIRC. Thank goodness. 

AZ State Dashboard

Other states should take note. The mitigation measures really do work. We just have to do them aggressively, take it seriously, and the numbers come down. When they are low we can focus on kids getting their lives back (not partying at the bar/club, that was a mistake we hopefully learn from). 
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Imagine that.....who knew?

 
gianmarco said:
Imagine that.....who knew?
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Everything needs to be "discovered" anew. Like there isn't a world's worth of evidence out there. It is totally frustrating that folks just refuse to learn from others. 

Yes your stove can get hot, just like everyone else's stove. Yes you'll burn yourself if you touch it. Yes, you can make the pain go away by taking your hand off the stove. No, it shouldn't have taken you this long to realize something this obvious. And no, this isn't anything new that you've figured out.  (Note, "you" is generic here) 

Gak, so frustrating.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
AZ numbers are starting to look better. Masks + no inside bars/dining seem to be helping, they implemented both around 2 weeks ago IIRC. Thank goodness. 

AZ State Dashboard

Other states should take note. The mitigation measures really do work. We just have to do them aggressively, take it seriously, and the numbers come down. When they are low we can focus on kids getting their lives back (not partying at the bar/club, that was a mistake we hopefully learn from). 
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Mainly just the masks. They closed bars but only certain licenses, so many places remained open and restaurants are still open for indoor dining. It was lowered down to 50% capacity but most places never opened that much anyway. They also closed gyms and a few other minor things tied to young people partying.

But clearly the masks have made the biggest difference. I’m cautiously optimistic that today’s uptick in hospital assets were just a blimp. The biggest concern would be a shift in case demographics to older populations more at risk of serious complications.

 
Biff84 said:
Mainly just the masks. They closed bars but only certain licenses, so many places remained open and restaurants are still open for indoor dining. It was lowered down to 50% capacity but most places never opened that much anyway. They also closed gyms and a few other minor things tied to young people partying.

But clearly the masks have made the biggest difference. I’m cautiously optimistic that today’s uptick in hospital assets were just a blimp. The biggest concern would be a shift in case demographics to older populations more at risk of serious complications.
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I'd prefer a blip to a blimp, but I get what you're saying  ;)

 
Biff84 said:
Mainly just the masks. They closed bars but only certain licenses, so many places remained open and restaurants are still open for indoor dining. It was lowered down to 50% capacity but most places never opened that much anyway. They also closed gyms and a few other minor things tied to young people partying.

But clearly the masks have made the biggest difference. I’m cautiously optimistic that today’s uptick in hospital assets were just a blimp. The biggest concern would be a shift in case demographics to older populations more at risk of serious complications.
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Definitely, masks obviously make a huge difference if everyone wears them (as does staying 6-8 feet apart and washing hands of course). The country screwed up not realizing this earlier. In retrospect looking at Asian countries that wear masks regularly and their numbers with the virus, it seems really foolish we didn't realize this earlier. 

One dynamic with the Valley that has been tough to deal with is that June, July, August and September are absolutely brutal. 110 degrees every day with very little variance from that mark. People want to go into malls, restaurants, bars with AC to get out of the heat. Exactly the things to avoid, unfortunately, which likely contributed to why AZ saw such a spike.

 
On the bright-side of humanity, I took the family on a COVID-safe vacation to escape the heat and COVID. Mask usage has been very good, even in unexpected places. We went to a wildlife park that has a drive-thru part and also walking part. When you enter the park they have a couple employees telling everyone that mask are required in the gift shop and restaurants but not in the park itself. Annoyingly the two guys were going out of their way to tell people that the masks are your personal choice and you can express your freedom however you choose. But despite that I’d estimate 75% of the people were wearing masks outdoors while social distancing - a promising sign especially with it being a place many are ‘escaping’ to.

 
Biff84 said:
On the bright-side of humanity, I took the family on a COVID-safe vacation to escape the heat and COVID. Mask usage has been very good, even in unexpected places. We went to a wildlife park that has a drive-thru part and also walking part. When you enter the park they have a couple employees telling everyone that mask are required in the gift shop and restaurants but not in the park itself. Annoyingly the two guys were going out of their way to tell people that the masks are your personal choice and you can express your freedom however you choose. But despite that I’d estimate 75% of the people were wearing masks outdoors while social distancing - a promising sign especially with it being a place many are ‘escaping’ to.
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Thanks for sharing...and fwiw I share your disappointment in the two employees "going out of their way to tell people...personal choice...express your freedom how you choose."

That said, I am beginning to question the representativeness of these anecdotal stories that state 75% are/aren't wearing masks and so want to run a theory by all of you.  Have any of you noticed the wide discrepancy of masking wearing day-to-day in a particular location.  For example, I can go to the hardware store one day and see 80%+ mask usage and then the next 40% or less.  Same thing with trips to the dump.  Am thinking that we are social animals with a need to fit in and so what I may be experiencing is people taking cues from others and acting accordingly.  So, are any of you experiencing the same thing?  And if so, how much credence should we give to any report that indicates xx% are/aren't wearing masks?  

As always, just my opinion.

 
Connecticut with no reported deaths yesterday.  That's the 3rd time in the last 2 weeks.  Recent positivity still doing great - under 1% total since 13 June.  Saw an article today claiming test results were extremely slow.  One man said he had to wait 8 whole days.  8 days is lightning fast compared to some areas. 

 
Biff84 said:
On the bright-side of humanity, I took the family on a COVID-safe vacation to escape the heat and COVID. Mask usage has been very good, even in unexpected places. We went to a wildlife park that has a drive-thru part and also walking part. When you enter the park they have a couple employees telling everyone that mask are required in the gift shop and restaurants but not in the park itself. Annoyingly the two guys were going out of their way to tell people that the masks are your personal choice and you can express your freedom however you choose. But despite that I’d estimate 75% of the people were wearing masks outdoors while social distancing - a promising sign especially with it being a place many are ‘escaping’ to.
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When my kids were young, we took several trips to the springs in Florida. That was 10-20 years ago, and the summer crowds weren't too bad. The water was cold, but once they jumped in, they really enjoyed it. We visited Wakulla, Silver, Juniper, Blue, Weeki Wachie, Itchetuckne, and more. It's a cheap and fun alternative to the theme parks. Probably safer too as as far as COVID is concerned.

 
tangfoot said:
You won't believe #2!
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Fauci, the CDC, and the WHO dropped the ball so badly it's infuriating.  Masks do no harm, but could have cut down on deaths by hundreds of thousands and severely suppressed this thing.

:rant:

----

On another note, per the CDC, looks like earlier studies are confirmed - 10x as many have been infected than confirmed.  So ~40M infected in the US.  

 
Sand said:
Fauci, the CDC, and the WHO dropped the ball so badly it's infuriating.  Masks do no harm, but could have cut down on deaths by hundreds of thousands and severely suppressed this thing.

:rant:

----

On another note, per the CDC, looks like earlier studies are confirmed - 10x as many have been infected than confirmed.  So ~40M infected in the US.  
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Sneaky trick.  Make this post in the political forum if you'd like to discuss the reality of what happened, in more detail.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Three simple acts can stop COVID-19 outbreaks, study finds
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I really don't like this line from the article:

"If we all wore face coverings for the next four, six, eight, twelve weeks, across the nation, this virus transmission would stop," Dr. Robert Redfield said.

That's an incorrect summary of the study.  The study mentions social distancing, which isn't included in his statement.

It appears the government is going all-in on masks.  While that's GOOD, I hope it doesn't come at the expense of social distancing.  

 
shader said:
If you notice, the 7-day average has gone up every single day for 2 weeks. What you’re claiming here is untrue.  
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I agree. But your daily numbers appear to be dropping. Therefore, soon, your 7-day averages will drop, correct? 

EDIT: The number jumped up today.

 
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Payne said:
I agree. But your daily numbers appear to be dropping. Therefore, soon, your 7-day averages will drop, correct? 
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7-day averages will only drop if week over week numbers drop.  As long as they are all rising, the 7-day averages continue to rise.  

As an example, last Wednesday there were 713 deaths.  If there are more than 713 today, the average will rise.  If there are less than 713, the average will fall.

 
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Payne said:
I agree. But your daily numbers appear to be dropping. Therefore, soon, your 7-day averages will drop, correct? 
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Here are the last three weeks of "daily" numbers

Tuesday 479, 634, 744, 894

Wednesday 428, 581, 712

Thursday 418, 626, 717

Friday 357, 563, 747

Saturday 134, 506, 632

Sunday 133, 288, 324

Monday 276, 286, 404

Each of the last three weeks, the numbers "have dropped" from a high on Tuesday to the drop over the weekend. This drop over the week isn't due to good news. This drop is because its the weekend and few people are around to report/collate the numbers. By Tuesday they catch up and then the cycle repeats. The trend over these three weeks is steadily upwards. This is why the week over week numbers, or the rolling average is important. Looking at it in finer grain detail, trying to find a trend within the week is misleading. The downward trend within the week is a mirage. It is not "good news". 

The good news will come when the week over week numbers drop. 

 
Morton Muffley said:
That said, I am beginning to question the representativeness of these anecdotal stories that state 75% are/aren't wearing masks and so want to run a theory by all of you.  Have any of you noticed the wide discrepancy of masking wearing day-to-day in a particular location?  For example, I can go to the hardware store one day and see 80%+ mask usage and then the next 40% or less.  Same thing with trips to the dump.
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Suburban New Orleans: we were seeing this kind of variance locally up until about a month ago. Since July 4th weekend, face-covering compliance at local groceries, drugstore, and retail outlets appears to be very close to 100%. People not wearing masks really stand out now, and you no longer see maskless people every time you go somewhere.

Also since July 4th weekend: Anyplace near where I live that sells groceries appears to have either security guard(s) or detail police officers at the entrances -- even during off-peak hours. I've also seen the same thing in New Orleans proper.

 
Maybe this is veering too close to the political realm but I really wish people would drop all the criticism over the initial poor messaging around masks/face coverings. 

Yes the info was bad as this started to get moving here but by the middle to the end of March, mostly everyone in the NYC area had started wearing masks and by the beginning of April local government was telling people that masks should be worn especially when indoors like grocery shopping. And by and large, there was pretty universal adoption of masks and that hasn't let up. 

That was THREE AND A HALF MONTHS AGO, which is plenty of time for anyone who was "confused" by the initial guidance to come to a better understanding of the benefits, not to mention, see how places that were embracing masks had done a better job reducing case counts and slowing the spread. 

To continue to put the blame on anyone for what was said back then is such a ridiculous deflection away from personal responsibility. 

/rant

 
RUSF18 said:
Maybe this is veering too close to the political realm but I really wish people would drop all the criticism over the initial poor messaging around masks/face coverings. 

Yes the info was bad as this started to get moving here but by the middle to the end of March, mostly everyone in the NYC area had started wearing masks and by the beginning of April local government was telling people that masks should be worn especially when indoors like grocery shopping. And by and large, there was pretty universal adoption of masks and that hasn't let up. 

That was THREE AND A HALF MONTHS AGO, which is plenty of time for anyone who was "confused" by the initial guidance to come to a better understanding of the benefits, not to mention, see how places that were embracing masks had done a better job reducing case counts and slowing the spread. 

To continue to put the blame on anyone for what was said back then is such a ridiculous deflection away from personal responsibility. 

/rant
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The NY mask mandate went into effect April 17 so not nearly as early as you say

 
RUSF18 said:
Maybe this is veering too close to the political realm but I really wish people would drop all the criticism over the initial poor messaging around masks/face coverings ... That was THREE AND A HALF MONTHS AGO ...
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Around here (New Orleans suburbs), people generally knew to start wearing face coverings the weekend after the NBA cancelled and Tom Hanks fell ill (the weekend of March 14-15). Compliance rose and fell over the next three months, but typically stayed north of 50% throughout.

 
shadyridr said:
The NY mask mandate went into effect April 17 so not nearly as early as you say
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As a mandate sure but they were being recommended weeks before and you know that. I also didn't mention a mandate but said "government was telling people they should be worn".

But sure point taken.

 
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Sand said:
Fauci, the CDC, and the WHO dropped the ball so badly it's infuriating.  Masks do no harm, but could have cut down on deaths by hundreds of thousands and severely suppressed this thing.

:rant:

----

On another note, per the CDC, looks like earlier studies are confirmed - 10x as many have been infected than confirmed.  So ~40M infected in the US.  
Click to expand...
This is not accurate and a misunderstanding of the data. The study gave a range of estimated infection rates vs what was measured weeks ago and gave those rates for individual locations. It wasn't a percentage for the entire population.

 
shadyridr said:
The NY mask mandate went into effect April 17 so not nearly as early as you say
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Yeah, but lots of people all over were aware about face coverings much earlier than this. Heck, @icon was buying boxes of these things in January.

...

[to the house]

From what I recall ... most of the guidance about "the general public doesn't need masks ... save 'em for medical folks" came out in February because runs on masks in retail establishments WERE taking place in the U.S. One notable outlier was U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams, who maintained a stance against the public wearing (medical?) masks until new CDC face-covering guidance was released on April 3rd.

 
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I am aware of a party that has 50+ infections, possibly from one person(a CNA no less). I think this will be published at some point as a case study, based on some of the odd things I know. 

If you look at this site and check the "cases by census tract", you can see the zone in the upper right in red on the map that stands out like a sore thumb for numbers. That is from this party. 

 
RUSF18 said:
Maybe this is veering too close to the political realm but I really wish people would drop all the criticism over the initial poor messaging around masks/face coverings. 

Yes the info was bad as this started to get moving here but by the middle to the end of March, mostly everyone in the NYC area had started wearing masks and by the beginning of April local government was telling people that masks should be worn especially when indoors like grocery shopping. And by and large, there was pretty universal adoption of masks and that hasn't let up. 

That was THREE AND A HALF MONTHS AGO, which is plenty of time for anyone who was "confused" by the initial guidance to come to a better understanding of the benefits, not to mention, see how places that were embracing masks had done a better job reducing case counts and slowing the spread. 

To continue to put the blame on anyone for what was said back then is such a ridiculous deflection away from personal responsibility. 

/rant
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Guidance didn't change based on new science. That is the real problem here. Doctors, public health, nurses, etc deserve criticism regarding this issue til the end of time.

 
Doug B said:
Yeah, but lots of people all over were aware about face coverings much earlier than this. Heck, @icon was buying boxes of these things in January.

...

[to the house]

From what I recall ... most of the guidance about "the general public doesn't need masks ... save 'em for medical folks" came out in February because runs on masks in retail establishments WERE taking place in the U.S. One notable outlier was U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams, who maintained a stance against the public wearing (medical?) masks until new CDC face-covering guidance was released on April 3rd.
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For every Icon, how many people were saying he should donate them?

 
bcat01 said:
Ohio just mandated masks and Facebook is blowing up with anti-maskers.
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So this started over the weekend but is an actual post from a friend I went to school with:

Can anyone say Nazi Germany? Or USSR? Or Cuba? Or China?

Re-education classes... first offense no mask a warning. 2nd offense you must go to an education class for not wearing a mask. If you don't go to class you get fined $250. Welcome to Nazi America! Also you libs. may want to study history whenever a dictatorship regime or such some such happens, The libs. are the ones that are round up and shot in firing squads.

The moment you see education classes for not following a mask law... If you can't extrapolate that into the future you are a fool!

I really can't argue with folks on this level of disagreement so I posted a few pictures of Nazi concentration camps and reminded him what a real re-education camp looks like.

 
RUSF18 said:
Maybe this is veering too close to the political realm but I really wish people would drop all the criticism over the initial poor messaging around masks/face coverings. 

Yes the info was bad as this started to get moving here but by the middle to the end of March, mostly everyone in the NYC area had started wearing masks and by the beginning of April local government was telling people that masks should be worn especially when indoors like grocery shopping. And by and large, there was pretty universal adoption of masks and that hasn't let up. 

That was THREE AND A HALF MONTHS AGO, which is plenty of time for anyone who was "confused" by the initial guidance to come to a better understanding of the benefits, not to mention, see how places that were embracing masks had done a better job reducing case counts and slowing the spread. 

To continue to put the blame on anyone for what was said back then is such a ridiculous deflection away from personal responsibility. 

/rant
Click to expand...
So true.  The thing about novel viruses, is that they are novel.......

 
RUSF18 said:
You're right, it's much better that they keep on being stubborn and refuse to modify their stance. What could go wrong with that?
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Perhaps you didn't pick up on the sarcasm there since doctors always knew that doctors needed masks.

They only changed their guidance for everybody else once they felt that their own precious supply line was no longer affected by the guidance.

 
RUSF18 said:
Maybe this is veering too close to the political realm but I really wish people would drop all the criticism over the initial poor messaging around masks/face coverings. 

Yes the info was bad as this started to get moving here but by the middle to the end of March, mostly everyone in the NYC area had started wearing masks and by the beginning of April local government was telling people that masks should be worn especially when indoors like grocery shopping. And by and large, there was pretty universal adoption of masks and that hasn't let up. 

That was THREE AND A HALF MONTHS AGO, which is plenty of time for anyone who was "confused" by the initial guidance to come to a better understanding of the benefits, not to mention, see how places that were embracing masks had done a better job reducing case counts and slowing the spread. 

To continue to put the blame on anyone for what was said back then is such a ridiculous deflection away from personal responsibility. 

/rant
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Yeah...it's not like they just started changing their tune.  There was a 3-4 week problem, but since, the messaging has been consistent.  Those still focused on this or trotting it out as a reason for anything falls completely flat in the logic department.  You were listening to them when they were saying "don't wear a mask" but you aren't listening to them when they are saying "wear a mask"...pretty much a fail any way you slice it.

 
parasaurolophus said:
So novel that doctors made the mistake of thinking that they didn't even need masks! And then they made a breakthrough discovery...
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Agree but what they were wrong about has zero bearing on the issues we are facing now and over the last like 2 months or so.  There's still lots of people who need to be convinced of this and it doesn't have to do with that initial mistake.  I'm not sure what the resolution is outside mandates but as you can see from the Ohio posts above - it sounds like there's a segment still not in favor.

 
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