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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

It looks like missing records in general, not specifically missing positive test results or negative test results. Still, I wouldn't expect that among the missing records that the results would be all that different proportionally to known positive % numbers. Assuming merely accidentally lost records, not records intentionally hidden, dumped, etc.
It is way more missing negative tests. One lab reported missing positives and negatives. 

The others in that report are clearly mostly missing negatives. 
Well, yeah ... in line with the gross numbers, many more negatives than positives should be lost. Again, assuming accidental loss and not hiding records.

What is your personal spidey sense about it? Hiding records intentionally to push a narrative? Innocent screw-ups? Something else?

 
Seeing that the numbers are wrong in one direction or the other does not mean that we throw the baby out with the bathwater, or that we assume all bias goes in one direction or the other.  It is just like any other data - there's signal buried in the noise and we need to base important decisions like health decisions on the best information possible, which means using multiple data points.
A thousand times this   :goodposting:  You count what you can count as you can count it and don't even attempt to chase perfection -- the signal is still there and it's still discernable. "Pretty good" is more than good enough.

 
Interesting info out of SC. 

 Lots of negative results not being reported
This is kind of a huge deal to be glossed over in this thread.
We set the bar here in Florida GB.  Many of the systems here were looking at the state site saying "hey, that's not what we reported to you".  Of course it was never really addressed.  Our local news groups have formed a relationship with the various healthcare groups and report on the numbers locally.  I haven't been to the state page in weeks.  

Oh, and on top of that, schools are back in session now so, of course, child infections are "confidential" and the state is not allowing reporting on them.

 
Apparently government has not learned its lesson, if they intend to reopen the same way as last time, including reopening gyms and bars, probably the two worst places to allow open.  If the reopening plans are the same as last time, why would the results be significantly different?
I don't get the phobia over gyms. I get not wanting to touch something sweaty but the risk of fomites has been pretty much debunked, no?

I guess people picture Rocky Balboa gym. The gym (YMCA) I'm at right now has high ceilings and all the machines are spaced well apart. Staff comes around and sprays surfaces regularly.

Oddly, the gym has fans turned off as a precaution but South Florida restaurants are going to have them on.

To me, the minimal risk is worth staying healthy (and getting out of house).

 
or the prevalence of comorbidities associated with covid, or any life-threatening disease, for that matter.
I have been ruminating on this a bit.  Let's say that we get a vaccine at the end of the year and in 1Q21 this is all but over (hypothetical).  Do we see a dramatic downtick in deaths because COVID essentially just pulled a huge amount of expected deaths over the next year forward?  A large percentage of the deaths were those that were in significant trouble health wise before the pandemic.  

Assuming we get a vaccine (which I do think we'll get) I think we do.  2022 may be the healthiest year in American history.

 
Oddly, the gym has fans turned off as a precaution but South Florida restaurants are going to have them on.
Depends on how the airflow patterns in the gym work, where windows are (how large, can they open, etc.), whether outside air regularly replaces inside air, etc. Different buildings and different HVAC set-ups will have different solutions to the ventilation issue.

 
I don't get the phobia over gyms. I get not wanting to touch something sweaty but the risk of fomites has been pretty much debunked, no?

I guess people picture Rocky Balboa gym. The gym (YMCA) I'm at right now has high ceilings and all the machines are spaced well apart. Staff comes around and sprays surfaces regularly.

Oddly, the gym has fans turned off as a precaution but South Florida restaurants are going to have them on.

To me, the minimal risk is worth staying healthy (and getting out of house).
Gyms probably aren't the tinderbox.  Why we seem to think that alcohol fueled socialization is something to be encouraged right now is beyond me.  This is why college campuses are the issue right now - parties and bars.  

 
I don't get the phobia over gyms. I get not wanting to touch something sweaty but the risk of fomites has been pretty much debunked, no?

I guess people picture Rocky Balboa gym. The gym (YMCA) I'm at right now has high ceilings and all the machines are spaced well apart. Staff comes around and sprays surfaces regularly.

Oddly, the gym has fans turned off as a precaution but South Florida restaurants are going to have them on.

To me, the minimal risk is worth staying healthy (and getting out of house).
I would love to back to my gym (Crunch Fitness), but people were slobs before all of this so I can only imagine what they’re like now with more regulations to ignore. 
Staff were not on top of their game before either. 

My pre-COVID example: 

Dude is upstairs in the cardio area on an elliptical. I socially distance by nature so I’m like 4 empty ellipticals away. This guy looks like death warmed over. He’s hacking up a storm and sweating like he’s in a sauna. Me and three other folks are just looking at this guy wondering wtf he’s at the gym to begin with. I leave after he coughs up who knows what from the bottom of his lungs as do the others near me. I can’t control his bad behavior, but I certainly can remove myself from it. 
 

 
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I would love to back to my gym (Crunch Fitness), but people were slobs before all of this so I can only imagine what they’re like now with more regulations to ignore. 
Staff were not on top of their game before either. 

My pre-COVID example: 

Dude is upstairs in the cardio area on an elliptical. I socially distance by nature so I’m like 4 empty ellipticals away. This guy looks like death warmed over. He’s hacking up a storm and sweating like he’s in a sauna. Me and three other folks are just looking at this guy wondering wtf he’s at the gym to begin with. I leave after he coughs up who knows what from the bottom of his lungs as do the others near me. I can’t control his bad behavior, but I certainly can remove myself from it. 
 
Other detail I left out is that the gym is taking temps as you walk in.  Maybe that would have helped?

 
I will say this entire narrative of "pulling forward" deaths upsets me a lot.  Not sure what talking head has promoted this way of thinking but it's just a little disgusting.  

 
Well, yeah ... in line with the gross numbers, many more negatives than positives should be lost. Again, assuming accidental loss and not hiding records.

What is your personal spidey sense about it? Hiding records intentionally to push a narrative? Innocent screw-ups? Something else?
Did you read the article? It seems that the people replying did not. 

 
I will say this entire narrative of "pulling forward" deaths upsets me a lot.  Not sure what talking head has promoted this way of thinking but it's just a little disgusting.  
I assume you mean how like in new jersey the other day 5 of the deaths from that day were from like may or even earlier. 

 
I don't get the phobia over gyms. I get not wanting to touch something sweaty but the risk of fomites has been pretty much debunked, no?
No. SARS-CoV-2, like most (all?) respiratory viruses, is spread by a combination of droplets/aerosols and fomites. But it's really difficult to prove the latter is solely responsible for transmission, as usually people are infected in a context where airborne and contact with contaminated objects is possible. From The WHO:

Respiratory secretions or droplets expelled by infected individuals can contaminate surfaces and objects, creating fomites (contaminated surfaces). Viable SARS-CoV-2 virus and/or RNA detected by RT-PCR can be found on those surfaces for periods ranging from hours to days, depending on the ambient environment (including temperature and humidity) and the type of surface, in particular at high concentration in health care facilities where COVID-19 patients were being treated.(21, 23, 24, 26, 28, 31-33, 36, 44, 45)  Therefore, transmission may also occur indirectly through touching surfaces in the immediate environment or objects contaminated with virus from an infected person (e.g. stethoscope or thermometer), followed by touching the mouth, nose, or eyes.  

Despite consistent evidence as to SARS-CoV-2 contamination of surfaces and the survival of the virus on certain surfaces, there are no specific reports which have directly demonstrated fomite transmission. People who come into contact with potentially infectious surfaces often also have close contact with the infectious person, making the distinction between respiratory droplet and fomite transmission difficult to discern. However, fomite transmission is considered a likely mode of transmission for SARS-CoV-2, given consistent findings about environmental contamination in the vicinity of infected cases and the fact that other coronaviruses and respiratory viruses can transmit this way.
High risk surfaces should still be disinfected, including shared equipment in a gym, which is far more likely be slathered in bodily fluids than most commonly encountered objects. We just dialed back the concerns that were getting people to do things like cooking their mail.

 
Wasnt a random. There were some labs that had like 97% positive. Thats either really a hot zone or there are a bunch of negative tests missing. 
Oh I see, sorry. It's a little weird because diseases reportable to departments of health are usually based on positive tests, not the tests administered when they turn out negative. In the case of flu, suspected cases are also reported as influenza-like illnesses, but I doubt all negative tests are submitted. 

Early on, all Covid tests went through local DOH, so this issue was moot. As more in-house and rapid tests became available, I can see how some facilities might miss reporting a few negatives. But it's ridiculous that so many tests would be unaccounted for - I suspect it was due more to incompetence than foul play, but hopefully they straighten out their numbers.

 
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I have been ruminating on this a bit.  Let's say that we get a vaccine at the end of the year and in 1Q21 this is all but over (hypothetical).  Do we see a dramatic downtick in deaths because COVID essentially just pulled a huge amount of expected deaths over the next year forward?  A large percentage of the deaths were those that were in significant trouble health wise before the pandemic.  

Assuming we get a vaccine (which I do think we'll get) I think we do.  2022 may be the healthiest year in American history.
To be clear, the Q-Anon crap is based on comorbidities on death certificates. It is standard practice to list contributors to a patients death, seen in Box 32, parts I and II.

So a covid patient's certificate might list pneumonia, ARDS, multi-organ systems failure separately, even though the direct cause is covid. Additionally, contributors which increased the likelihood of death like hypertension, diabetes, coronary artery disease and cancer might also be included. All the latter diagnoses are common enough that the vast majority of death certificates will probably have at least one, in addition to the direct cause of death. This is true for deaths not due to covid as well.

So the only way the conspiracists would be satisfied is a cert which listed covid-19 exclusively. It's not surprising this is uncommon, and I bet even those cases could have listed diagnoses like pneumonia (caused by covid) to fail their standards of legitimacy.

To answer your question, I think we'll have less flu and pneumonia deaths once covid runs its course - not because they died earlier due to covid, but because hygiene standards have improved. But there probably will be reduced deaths due to culling to some extent over the next couple years, assuming we develop an effective vaccine that people use (both big ifs).

I guess you could look back to HIV in its heyday (late 80's/early 90's) to answer your question - it was the number 1 cause of death for young males in the US for a while, but it's effectively a chronic disease like diabetes today.

 
A thousand times this   :goodposting:  You count what you can count as you can count it and don't even attempt to chase perfection -- the signal is still there and it's still discernable. "Pretty good" is more than good enough.
I would add to bfred's response, as I posited several months ago after tracking and watching anomalies in our state reporting system that percent positive does still matter but only as a function of the amount of testing being done. Our (LA) testing has been pretty steady for months now so I'm pleased to see the amount of testing stay the same while percent positive has fallen recently.  And add the other point that I brought up long ago that a "sliding scale" metric of hospital capacity vs. availability should be THE metric of when to tighten/loosen up on preventative measures, and they undoubtedly have that data to go by, whether they are reporting it publicly or not. Test results will be useful looking back historically I suppose, but don't do much good now when you don't even know (accurately) when the test results are from. 

 
To answer your question, I think we'll have less flu and pneumonia deaths once covid runs its course - not because they died earlier due to covid, but because hygiene standards have improved. But there probably will be reduced deaths due to culling to some extent over the next couple years, assuming we develop an effective vaccine that people use (both big ifs).
I hear you on QAnon, but for sure I wasn't talking about them at all.

On the above there was an article a bit back that the flu just about disappeared in the southern hemisphere in their winter due to masks/etc.  I'm hoping this is also the case in our flu season.

I also believe that the death rate for those 80+ will drop dramatically after they can be inoculated and we'll see a pretty large drop in the overall death rate for a while.

 
Worth reposting Death Certificates for Dummies, from Marc Bevand. Take a close look at Part 1 and Part 2.

From Aug 7: 

>> Per CDC as of 7/25/20: 141,678 COVID deaths were Multiple Cause deaths & in 130,819 of those deaths (92%) COVID was the Underlying Cause & in 10,598 (8%) of those deaths COVID was not. <<

 
Thought I'd pass this along.

This is a free virtual mental health/Covid conference with a sleight of heavyweight speakers (including a couple pro athletes like Solomon Thomas and Kevin Love.) I'm sure everyone here can associate with at least one of the topics.

 
I think we'll have less flu and pneumonia deaths once covid runs its course - not because they died earlier due to covid, but because hygiene standards have improved.
It may also be worth mentioning that when global travel paused/greatly diminished, so did the spread of non-CIVID 19 items like the flu.  The interruption of the spread back and forth across the equator that we see seasonally will greatly decrease flu numbers this year.  I believe that decrease will be felt for years with the flu, but others seem to disagree.  Thoughts?

 
It may also be worth mentioning that when global travel paused/greatly diminished, so did the spread of non-CIVID 19 items like the flu.  The interruption of the spread back and forth across the equator that we see seasonally will greatly decrease flu numbers this year.  I believe that decrease will be felt for years with the flu, but others seem to disagree.  Thoughts?
Good point. Definitely may see decreased flu until travel gets back to normal, if ever.

 
I don't get the phobia over gyms. I get not wanting to touch something sweaty but the risk of fomites has been pretty much debunked, no?

I guess people picture Rocky Balboa gym. The gym (YMCA) I'm at right now has high ceilings and all the machines are spaced well apart. Staff comes around and sprays surfaces regularly.

Oddly, the gym has fans turned off as a precaution but South Florida restaurants are going to have them on.

To me, the minimal risk is worth staying healthy (and getting out of house).
Kind of an aside, but I still can't shake my paranoia about touching things.  I know that fomites aren't really a major vector for covid, but that was drummed into us for such a long time that I can't move past it even though I know it's totally irrational.

 
CDC itself has said that COVID actually caused the death in only roughly 9,000 cases in the US. But yeah, it’s 30x more deadly than the flu

 
Thats not what the CDC report says.
Such a farce. Watch it magically not be an issue any longer the second week of November. Instead it’ll be the Russians again but you won’t hear about COVID. No one will care anymore and it’ll be another flu, as it always was

 
Such a farce. Watch it magically not be an issue any longer the second week of November. Instead it’ll be the Russians again but you won’t hear about COVID. No one will care anymore and it’ll be another flu, as it always was
Take it to the political forum please.

 
Unsurprisingly Florida has been under reporting their data, likely since the data expert was fired for reporting the data correctly. Between that and not disclosing cases in children I would not be sending my children to school in Florida or trusting leadership there to tell the truth at all.

 
CDC itself has said that COVID actually caused the death in only roughly 9,000 cases in the US. But yeah, it’s 30x more deadly than the flu
You are basically screaming "I have no idea what I'm talking about" right now.
 

You sure you want to go down this road? Because you're about to get made to look like a fool. 
 

You were warned :lol:  

 
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Unsurprisingly Florida has been under reporting their data, likely since the data expert was fired for reporting the data correctly. Between that and not disclosing cases in children I would not be sending my children to school in Florida or trusting leadership there to tell the truth at all.
Haven't been to the state site in two+ months....just can't be trusted.  Fortunately, here in Central Florida, the local healthcare groups and the news outlets are putting out weekly numbers for our area.  Very thankful and appreciative to them for that.  By all accounts, it looks like our area is trending in the right direction.  Important to note that the hospitals have capacity and the positivity rated continue to decrease.  We're still not out of the woods, but we're going the right direction despite our lack of state leadership...at least in this area.  Private companies have really been the driving force here with the big box stores, walmart, amusement parks etc making people wear masks to be in their facilities.

 
VERY interesting study from the supercomputer at ORNL: 

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

TLDR: It's a Bradykin storm, not a cytokine storm that causes the effects we see. And there are quite a few existing drugs that help vs that. 
Regarding bradykinin-elevation effects ... here's another dot potentially connected: apparent increased severity among African-American COVID-19 patients. Tie that observation with this tidbit (2018 source -- something studied pre-COVID):

In severe cases, the elevation of bradykinin may result in angioedema, a medical emergency. People of African descent have up to five times increased risk of ACE inhibitor induced angioedema due to hereditary predisposing risk factors such as hereditary angioedema.

 
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Kind of an aside, but I still can't shake my paranoia about touching things.  I know that fomites aren't really a major vector for covid, but that was drummed into us for such a long time that I can't move past it even though I know it's totally irrational.
I'm the same way. We've gotten a bit better about not wiping down everything, but it just caused me so much anxiety early on. Hard to move past it. Have porbably washed my hands with soap and water for the propper time more in the last 6 months than in my previous 31 years.

 
Regarding bradykinin-elevation effects ... here's another dot potentially connected: apparent increased severity among African-American patients. Tie that observation with this tidbit (2018 source -- something studied pre-COVID):
Could this really be a "Eureka Moment"?  It seems to line up a bunch of data points.
As always ... we still want a lot more people studying these leads, corroborating findings, and eventually reaching consensus. But the preliminary findings as the Medium article lays bare are promising.

 
As always ... we still want a lot more people studying these leads, corroborating findings, and eventually reaching consensus. But the preliminary findings as the Medium article lays bare are promising.
:goodposting:

LOTS of research still to be done but this does seem to have potential to be a pivotal moment in our understanding and treatment of COVID. 

 
Something else @[icon] and @Blick :

That Medium article about bradykinins seems to suggest that (1) people with high-blood pressure who are (2) regularly taking their blood pressure medicine may actually increase the severity of their COVID-19 symptoms if they contract the virus. So in doing the right thing controlling their BP,  they may get blindsided by COVID.

EDIT: Changes"will" to "may" ... all of this is preliminary and theoretical. More work to be done.

 
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Something else @[icon] and @Blick :

That Medium article about bradykinins seems to suggest that (1) people with high-blood pressure who are (2) regularly taking their blood pressure medicine may actually increase the severity of their COVID-19 symptoms if they contract the virus. So in doing the right thing controlling their BP,  they may get blindsided by COVID.

EDIT: Changes"will" to "may" ... all of this is preliminary and theoretical. More work to be done.
Wasn't this same thing reported by the Chinese in March?  It's been awhile, but I tend to remember this.

 
Something else @[icon] and @Blick :

That Medium article about bradykinins seems to suggest that (1) people with high-blood pressure who are (2) regularly taking their blood pressure medicine may actually increase the severity of their COVID-19 symptoms if they contract the virus. So in doing the right thing controlling their BP,  they may get blindsided by COVID.

EDIT: Changes"will" to "may" ... all of this is preliminary and theoretical. More work to be done.
Wasn't this same thing reported by the Chinese in March?  It's been awhile, but I tend to remember this.
What are you saying was reported in March by the Chinese, specifically? That HBP medicine worsened COVID symptoms? If so ... I don't recall that, but would be interested in reading something about it from that early on.

My recall is that the advice back then (February/March) was for people on HBP medication to definitely stay on their medication and that doing so would help them in the event of a COVID-19 infection. If the bradykinin information pans out, the opposite will be true about HBP medication -- such medication may instead exacerbate COVID symptoms.

EDIT: I know I was reading A LOT about COVID back in February and March ... and back then a strong majority of the preliminary medical findings were from Chinese studies for obvious reasons. I never saw the word "bradykinin" mentioned once ... and I'd have remembered, as that word sticks out like sore thumb and is memorable. So I believe the bradykinin-related research is not ground that researchers anywhere were covering early on -- or if someone was, they weren't going public with their findings.

 
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VERY interesting study from the supercomputer at ORNL: 

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

TLDR: It's a Bradykin storm, not a cytokine storm that causes the effects we see. And there are quite a few existing drugs that help vs that. 
Wow, this really would help explain a lot of the seemingly unrelated and confusing aspects of the disease and the impacts. Incredible work. Thank you for posting this. 

 
Well, as of now, if you Google "blood pressure medicine, COVID-19" ... lots of recent articles pop up that say taking HBP doesn't raise risk of COVID-19 complications if the virus is contracted (Example from Standford Medical). So there is still much to be worked out if the prevailing medical advice (stick with HBP meds) is ever going to be overturned.

It could also end up being a thing where HBP medicine A is OK, but popular HBP medicine B becomes contraindicated for some patients with heightened COVID risk for whatever reason (age, occupation, BMI, etc.).

 

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