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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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1 hour ago, Don't Noonan said:
2 hours ago, Doug B said:

So basically 3.5 to 4 months? If they didn't mean "14-17 days" ... a test that slow is close to worthless to the patient.

Exactly, the results won't mean anything by the time she gets them and she will have to continue to stay quarantined until she has no symptoms.  

We don't have enough testing capacity in this country. That's really all there is to it.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, nirad3 said:

Sorry man, there's some truth to this.  

Feel free to back up your opinion with links, or kindly move on to someone else.

Edited by shader

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Just now, shader said:

Feel free to back up your opinions with links, or kindly move on to someone else.

:lol: OK man, I shouldn't have even posted anything.  Not interested in a pissing contest or having to "prove" anything.  


Bottom line is, when one thinks of the "doom and gloom" type of poster in this thread, you are at the top of the list.  Perception, in this case, is reality.  And I don't need to provide any links to prove to others what is clear perception.  

 

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4 hours ago, Rich Conway said:

Per the recent South Korea study, they found that kids under 10 transmit about half as well as adults, and kids 10-19 in an equal fashion to adults.  That would mean that, given current outbreaks, allowing even young children to congregate in, say, Florida is a worse idea than allowing adults to congregate in a region with low incidents of cases.

I follow many epidemiologists/virologists on Twitter, and a bevy of them have some issues with that study. Foremost among those issues is that the paper failed to show that the minors were in fact the index cases instead of just being infected simultaneously with the adults. Instead, they happened to show symptoms first and thereby assumed to be index cases.

Moreover, there have been many studies around the world suggesting the opposite--kids aren't effective vectors. This also aligns with what we've observed from across the globe.

It's sensible to me that the older cohort of kids certainly would be better vectors than younger kids, that makes sense. But at the same time, those older kids would have a better understanding of keeping appropriate distance/not touching, etc.

Regardless, we all have to take whatever risks we're comfortable with. To date, I feel my kids' social health far outweighs the inherent risks of infection. 

 

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2 minutes ago, nirad3 said:

:lol: OK man, I shouldn't have even posted anything.  Not interested in a pissing contest or having to "prove" anything.  


Bottom line is, when one thinks of the "doom and gloom" type of poster in this thread, you are at the top of the list.  Perception, in this case, is reality.  And I don't need to provide any links to prove to others what is clear perception.  

 

Absolutely 

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Pulled up to my parents' place today to find a fire engine and ambulance in front of the neighbor's place.  Turns out their 16-year old daughter was really sick, having trouble breathing, etc.... they are thinking mono but never know.  This would be the first COVID case that would "hit home" in any way for us.

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17 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

We don't have enough testing capacity in this country. That's really all there is to it.

I agree but I can only imagine how bad it is elsewhere.  Have you seen my posts about Mexico?  42% positivity rate last I checked!  :shock:

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18 minutes ago, nirad3 said:


Bottom line is, when one thinks of the "doom and gloom" type of poster in this thread, you are at the top of the list.  Perception, in this case, is reality.  And I don't need to provide any links to prove to others what is clear perception.  

I don’t want to stir up anything but just want @shader to know that I really appreciate his contributions to this thread.

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20 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I don’t want to stir up anything but just want @shader to know that I really appreciate his contributions to this thread.

Ok doomer.

 

 

(I kid, i kid)

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7 hours ago, jamny said:

I've always been an optimist and that hasn't changed. While I do believe it will be a rough winter, I think with all the treatments and vaccines being worked on we will be able to knock this down quite a bit by next spring. Taking a page out of the history books, the Spanish Flu was virtually gone in 1919. I understand this is different and there will be long term effects on people that contracted it but I predict a new Roaring 20's once this is wiped out. 

I believe the surviving companies will thrive, but I'm afraid a lot of that success will come at the expense of the working class.  Lay offs and stream lining will be the theme to maximize profits just like before the pandemic.  Basically, this will be an excuse to fire as many as possible to "get back to normal."  

Really hope I'm wrong.  

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1 hour ago, DallasDMac said:

Of the 3,300 positive cases this weekend in San Antonio, 1 in 10 were pediatric. i.e. 10% were under the age of 18. Definitely not the news people hoping to send kids back to school were looking for.

Yeah have to think we are looking at virtual learning again at this point. 

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54 minutes ago, nirad3 said:

:lol: OK man, I shouldn't have even posted anything.  Not interested in a pissing contest or having to "prove" anything.  


Bottom line is, when one thinks of the "doom and gloom" type of poster in this thread, you are at the top of the list.  Perception, in this case, is reality.  And I don't need to provide any links to prove to others what is clear perception.  

 

I take offense to this comment. What am I? Chopped Gloom?

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54 minutes ago, Battersbox said:

To date, I feel my kids' social health far outweighs the inherent risks of infection. 

 

Agree, but this can easily be satisfied with setting up times for kids to get together and play in smaller groups - there's no need to jump right into full on 30 kids in an enclosed space for 8 hours. Have them meet a the park and play/throw a ball around, ride bikes, if someone has a pool have a few friends over and hang out in the backyard, just no wrestling in the pool. There are way more responsible ways to scratch the social itch.

 

 

Definitely not meaning to imply this is you or your motivation (thus the added emphasis on spacing this part of the response away from the rest) , but way too many people that I've talked to that are pushing for reopening schools are essentially just sick of having their kids around all the time and at the same time are not allowing them to have responsible social interactions.

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2 minutes ago, acarey50 said:

Agree, but this can easily be satisfied with setting up times for kids to get together and play in smaller groups - there's no need to jump right into full on 30 kids in an enclosed space for 8 hours. Have them meet a the park and play/throw a ball around, ride bikes, if someone has a pool have a few friends over and hang out in the backyard, just no wrestling in the pool. There are way more responsible ways to scratch the social itch.

This is exactly what we've done.  Bike rides at the park, swimming in the pool, etc.  Our kids get some social interaction with friends just about every day and they're thriving.  I'll be keeping them home from school in the fall and have no worries about their social health.  Making them sit at a desk with plexiglass dividers and a mask on their face 7 hours a day sounds worse for their mental health than doing at-home learning and still seeing their friends.  :shrug: 

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

Outstanding potential news

ETA - @The Commish - I think you’ve been outspoken about not getting a vaccine initially.  You may be interested to watch.  Not looking to change your mind but this guys interview reassures me that it should be safe.  tl;dw - they are fast tracking not by taking shortcuts but rather eliminating red tape 

Edited by AAABatteries

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1 hour ago, nirad3 said:

:lol: OK man, I shouldn't have even posted anything.  Not interested in a pissing contest or having to "prove" anything.  


Bottom line is, when one thinks of the "doom and gloom" type of poster in this thread, you are at the top of the list.  Perception, in this case, is reality.  And I don't need to provide any links to prove to others what is clear perception.  

 

Hes the absolute worst🤢

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2 hours ago, shader said:

Link to proof of this claim?

:lmao:

Pick a page, any page.  Click on it.  There you are.

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Good news from Austin, where we had the first marked reduction daily hospitalizations in awhile, dropping from 70s to 63 yesterday, and to 43 today. Hopefully it’s like a fever breaking. But we’ll see.

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1 hour ago, acarey50 said:

Agree, but this can easily be satisfied with setting up times for kids to get together and play in smaller groups - there's no need to jump right into full on 30 kids in an enclosed space for 8 hours. Have them meet a the park and play/throw a ball around, ride bikes, if someone has a pool have a few friends over and hang out in the backyard, just no wrestling in the pool. There are way more responsible ways to scratch the social itch.

 

 

Definitely not meaning to imply this is you or your motivation (thus the added emphasis on spacing this part of the response away from the rest) , but way too many people that I've talked to that are pushing for reopening schools are essentially just sick of having their kids around all the time and at the same time are not allowing them to have responsible social interactions.

My reply was in response to letting kids socialize in an area where cases are high. Wasn't really about school.

As far as school though, I think kids should go to back to class (and my wife is a teacher). Personally, I think districts should make provisions for teachers who are over 60 or who are at risk in some other way. Other than that, I think kids are better off attending classes right now. That's just my opinion, based on a mosaic view of the world right now. 

However, I wouldn't tell anyone else how to feel about sending their kids to school. In an ideal scenario, parents would have the option for either in person or virtual. That may be far-fetched for many districts though.

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5 hours ago, cosjobs said:

Without an abundance of contact tracing and quick testing, we may never know for a fact. 

Well, Europe and Asia will probably be able to tell us soon. You know, cuz they have low case rates and effective contact tracing.

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1 hour ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

This is exactly what we've done.  Bike rides at the park, swimming in the pool, etc.  Our kids get some social interaction with friends just about every day and they're thriving.  I'll be keeping them home from school in the fall and have no worries about their social health.  Making them sit at a desk with plexiglass dividers and a mask on their face 7 hours a day sounds worse for their mental health than doing at-home learning and still seeing their friends.  :shrug: 

I agree that if the measures taken within schools are too draconian, kids might just be better off at home. I just don't think the measures need to be that extreme.

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3 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

Outstanding potential news

ETA - @The Commish - I think you’ve been outspoken about not getting a vaccine initially.  You may be interested to watch.  Not looking to change your mind but this guys interview reassures me that it should be safe.  tl;dw - they are fast tracking not by taking shortcuts but rather eliminating red tape 

Much work is also being done in parallel.

Moderna is recruiting for vaccine trial volunteers locally starting next week. This would be a Phase 3 trial, the last trial before FDA approval, licensing and manufacturing. Trial participants will be tracked for two years after receiving either the trial vaccine or a placebo. However, I don’t know whether or not the vaccine can be approved before those two years are up.

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I post rarely, but still provide updates for Connecticut.  We stopped posting numbers on weekends, so here are the combined numbers for Sat, Sun, & Mon:

Deaths - 10
Positivity - 0.59% (162/27323)
Hospitalizations - decreased from 66 to 54

I did finally get to see deaths for CT nursing homes, and it's horrible.  Of our 4406 deaths, 2831 (64%) are from nursing homes.  I don't know how this percentage compares to the rest of the USA, but we have had more deaths in nursing homes than 35 other states have had TOTAL deaths.


 

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35 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Much work is also being done in parallel.

Moderna is recruiting for vaccine trial volunteers locally starting next week. This would be a Phase 3 trial, the last trial before FDA approval, licensing and manufacturing. Trial participants will be tracked for two years after receiving either the trial vaccine or a placebo. However, I don’t know whether or not the vaccine can be approved before those two years are up.

Any idea about payment for study participants? My 46 year old roommate and her son asked me. I told her there could be side-effects such as experienced by this guy who developed a 103 degree fever after receiving the high dose in Phase 1, which apparently will not be used in Phase 3. There are 2 study sites in Miami, per clinicaltrials.gov.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/26/moderna-vaccine-candidate-trial-participant-severe-reaction/

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

1. It was a theory trying to explain data that made no sense.

2. Turns out the data made no sense because it wasnt true. Hence the edits i added. 

3. Why do they test for antibodies in any person? 

 

At this point in time, antibody tests are of limited utility. In a a high prevalence area with a good test, they might be useful to show prior exposure to the virus.

There’s little reason to think newborns would ever be tested for antibodies. In addition to fundamental issues with test characteristics, maternal IgG crosses the placenta and all types of antibodies (esp. IgA) are found in breast milk. 

Edited by Terminalxylem
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16 hours ago, perbach said:

Read an article early on in this crisis that suggested high altitude essentially immobilized this virus.    

Airplanes are pressurized to 6-8000 ft.

Quito, Ecuador is over 9000 feet elevation. Bogata, Columbia is 8600 feet. Mexico City is 7300 feet.

All three places have plenty of covid.

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16 hours ago, DallasDMac said:

Sorry, I shouldn't have replied like I did. I realize you don't know what you don't know. But please realize, when you are talking the human body, not all things are equal. You can't just look at an age sand say "your risk is this" without knowing a person' full background. So apologies for going off. I hope you can understand my initial reaction.

p.s. Note to self, never post your initial reaction.

Your reaction was fine. While the rest of his post was reasonable, characterizing concern over the pandemic as hysteria is insensitive at the minimum, and arguably much worse:

Quote

hys•te•ri•a hĭ-stĕr′ē-ə, -stîr′-

n. Behavior exhibiting excessive or uncontrollable emotion, such as fear or panic.

n. A group of psychiatric symptoms, including heightened emotionality, attention-seeking behavior, and physical symptoms in the absence of organic pathology. The symptoms of hysteria are currently attributed to any of several psychiatric conditions, including somatization disorder, multiple personality disorder, and histrionic personality disorder. The term hysteria is no longer used in clinical use.

n. A nervous disease involving no recognizable anatomical lesion, characterized by unrestrained desire to attract. attention and sympathy, more or less coordinated convulsions, globus and clavus hystericus, anæsthesia, hyperæsthesia, motor paralysis, vasomotor derangements, etc. Women are much more frequently affected in this way than men. Also called hysterics.

 

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1 hour ago, Terminalxylem said:

Airplanes are pressurized to 6-8000 ft.

Quito, Ecuador is over 9000 feet elevation. Bogata, Columbia is 8600 feet. Mexico City is 7300 feet.

All three places have plenty of covid.

Never said it was a legit article.   Pretty sure it was an "Onion" type publication.   But we havent seen any cases of humans affected above 17000 feet, so this may be some merit to this.   Something to keep an eye on.  😉👍

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13 hours ago, Biff84 said:

I don’t know that it would make much difference. The job requires us to work in close proximity with our paths crossing frequently throughout the day. It’s a baked in risk of the job. We do quite a bit to reduce it but it’s just unavoidable. Just like family, I can reduce the risk they get it from me but I’ll never eliminate it.

You need one of these https://www.legendbrandsrestoration.com/Products/DefendAir-HEPA-500

Seriously, air scrubbers are going to be a part of everyday life soon enough. Whether installed on the buildings HVAC system or these portables, it’s going to happen and soon. Not perfect but better than nothing at all.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

Outstanding potential news

ETA - @The Commish - I think you’ve been outspoken about not getting a vaccine initially.  You may be interested to watch.  Not looking to change your mind but this guys interview reassures me that it should be safe.  tl;dw - they are fast tracking not by taking shortcuts but rather eliminating red tape 

I have been...I'm open to watching and learning....I'll take a look.  Sadly, I probably wouldn't think twice about this if it were in another country.  That's where I'm at with my trust levels of our government and companies making trillions off our "health".  

ETA:  I've been following the stuff going on at Oxford.  It's one of my personal glimmers of hope.  On BBC they've been talking about progress.  In their current state, they are trying to tamp down some side affects that are unpleasant (though NOT unmanageable or deadly).  They haven't gone further than that in descriptions, but I am guessing, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, stomach cramping. etc  

Edited by The Commish
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23 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

You need one of these https://www.legendbrandsrestoration.com/Products/DefendAir-HEPA-500

Seriously, air scrubbers are going to be a part of everyday life soon enough. Whether installed on the buildings HVAC system or these portables, it’s going to happen and soon. Not perfect but better than nothing at all.

Yep.

Also, over time, HVAC standards will change again. Once upon a time it was increasing energy efficiency ... and now, a 2020 home HVAC system is a different animal than a 1980 HVAC system.

The next innovations will be frequency of air exchange and a wider adoption of HEPA filtering.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

Your reaction was fine. While the rest of his post was reasonable, characterizing concern over the pandemic as hysteria is insensitive at the minimum, and arguably much worse:

That is not what I did. 

There's a big difference between being concerned and stating things akin to "America is DOOMED!", the latter of which is what I was replying to. Reasonable people obviously understood that in here. 

Edited by Andy Dufresne

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1 hour ago, perbach said:

Never said it was a legit article.   Pretty sure it was an "Onion" type publication.   But we havent seen any cases of humans affected above 17000 feet, so this may be some merit to this.   Something to keep an eye on.  😉👍

There was that sci-fi movie about people living on a train and eating humans. Perhaps living on airplanes is in our future

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4 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

At this point in time, antibody tests are of limited utility. In a a high prevalence area with a good test, they might be useful to show prior exposure to the virus.

There’s little reason to think newborns would ever be tested for antibodies. In addition to fundamental issues with test characteristics, maternal IgG crosses the placenta and all types of antibodies (esp. IgA) are found in breast milk. 

Whoa. Antibodies are found in breast milk? Who knew.

 

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Monday numbers 

Deaths in the 21 "Outbreak States"

(CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA, NC, LA, OH, TN, SC, AL, WA, WI, MS, UT, MO, AK, NV, OK, KS, NM)

July 20:  404 deaths

Last three Mondays: (276,286,404)

 

7-day average in deaths

7/7: 340

7/8: 361

7/9: 391

7/10: 421

7/11: 474

7/12: 496

7/13: 497

7/14: 513

7/15: 532

7/16: 545

7/17: 570

7/18: 589

7/19: 594

7/20: 611

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Are we still at just 21 states as "outbreak"?  Seems like with 40+ more increasing volumes daily, it's time to reevaluate that number.  Unless of course, you are just doing it for consistency purposes...either way, this is a tough update to watch these days.

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11 hours ago, TheWinz said:

I post rarely, but still provide updates for Connecticut.  We stopped posting numbers on weekends, so here are the combined numbers for Sat, Sun, & Mon:

Deaths - 10
Positivity - 0.59% (162/27323)
Hospitalizations - decreased from 66 to 54

I did finally get to see deaths for CT nursing homes, and it's horrible.  Of our 4406 deaths, 2831 (64%) are from nursing homes.  I don't know how this percentage compares to the rest of the USA, but we have had more deaths in nursing homes than 35 other states have had TOTAL deaths.


 

Glad CT is still doing so well. That .59 is amazing. 

RI had an even higher percentage of nursing home deaths at ~78% based on the breakdown on the RI DHS page. Roughly 740 of the 995 so far. One of the things our Governor mentions as her biggest regret - sending confirmed cases back to these homes. 

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3 hours ago, perbach said:

Never said it was a legit article.   Pretty sure it was an "Onion" type publication.   But we havent seen any cases of humans affected above 17000 feet, so this may be some merit to this.   Something to keep an eye on.  😉👍

Antarctica also remains covid-free. And emperor penguins certainly aren’t social distancing.

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3 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

That is not what I did. 

There's a big difference between being concerned and stating things akin to "America is DOOMED!", the latter of which is what I was replying to. Reasonable people obviously understood that in here. 

Although you got many “likes”, your word choice was poor.

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1 minute ago, Terminalxylem said:

Although you got many “likes”, your word choice was poor.

That's because many people chose to take it for the sentiment intended. You're the one choosing to make an issue of it. 

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2 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

Whoa. Antibodies are found in breast milk? Who knew.

 

Sarcasm aside, I don’t think the antibodies in breast milk make it to infants’ bloodstream in appreciable levels. So they probably wouldn’t be measurable in covid testing.

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https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-second-coronavirus-stimulus-check-updates-20200720-hvyh7hhwnbegblt4nmxbh43znq-story.html

Anyone with good sleuthing skills care to take a crack at how much truth is there in this article?

 

"But the administration was panning the proposal's $25 billion in new funds for virus testing and tracing and insisting on the payroll tax cut, Republicans said."

Attempts to block money for testing? More importantly, is it true there's unspent money that was earmarked for testing in the CARES Act?

"Another Republican familiar with the process said about half of the $25 billion previously approved remains unspent."

 

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5 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

That's because many people chose to take it for the sentiment intended. You're the one choosing to make an issue of it. 

Well, at least you backed down when another poster pointed out everyone concerned about covid isn’t hysterical.

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1 minute ago, Terminalxylem said:

Well, at least you backed down when another poster pointed out everyone concerned about covid isn’t hysterical.

Which, again, I never said in the first place.

Let's just drop it.

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

Let's just drop it.

+1

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Which, again, I never said in the first place.

Let's just drop it.

Sure. I was biting my e-tongue over your original post, but really wanted DMac to know he had no need to apologize for his response.

Edited by Terminalxylem
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27 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Antarctica also remains covid-free. And emperor penguins certainly aren’t social distancing.

So we do have options if this pandemic gets out of hand.   lol

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Commish said:

Are we still at just 21 states as "outbreak"?  Seems like with 40+ more increasing volumes daily, it's time to reevaluate that number.  Unless of course, you are just doing it for consistency purposes...either way, this is a tough update to watch these days.

I definitely should go back and analyze that.  It really requires looking at every state and judging if their cases are rising or not, which is a big lift.  But maybe I'll carve out some time for that later on.  That being said, I'm almost done tracking deaths.  The only reason I started was because this thread was full of people that were making the claim that deaths were dropping while cases were rising.  Now that time has shown that this wave of infections will behave in a similar manner to other waves, I have no real desire to keep a scoreboard of deaths, when everyone can go look themselves. 

I think it's pretty clear that deaths are rising again, so I'm not so sure how much value it is for me to point that out anymore.  

Edited by shader

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