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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
KingPrawn
Footballguy
Appleton has Lawrence University and Green Bay has UWGB and St. Norberts. Don't think this is the source of the skyrocketing numbers in Outagamie and Brown County. But, hey, its a party. Don't believe everything you read.
KingPrawn
Footballguy
WI Tavern League sues to oveturn capacity limit
Between them and the WI Republican Party it's a wonder that Wisconsin's positivity rate isn't 90+%
Between them and the WI Republican Party it's a wonder that Wisconsin's positivity rate isn't 90+%
38 million cases in 8 months and this is the 2nd I’ve heard of a person catching it again (might be the same person). If people didn’t get immunity in most cases then we’d have a whole lot more than 2 cases. This is one of those exceptions that proves the rule.
sho nuff
Footballguy
I i ow they have colleges...but they aremt college towns.
Lawrence has all of 1,400 students.
GB has under 7,000 total attending.
St Norberts just over 2,000.
Which was my point...claiming it was just colleges was not a very good assertion considering how things have blown up in those cities.
Maggot Brain
Footballguy
COVID 19 reinfection- Nevada man is first confirmed American case.
Also some info about overseas reinfections mentioned.
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Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Awesome article and a great rebuttal to the ill-advised Great Barrington Declaration. Thanks.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Not necessarily. Maybe immunity wanes after a few, say six months? Or immunity is incomplete from the get-go. Not saying that is the case, but long term immunity isn't guaranteed at this point either.
Not about coronavirus specifically (I linked an article detailing immunologic problems with coronaviruses in this thread several hundred pages ago), but respiratory viruses have well known issues with incomplete immunity:
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Don't Toews Me
Footballguy
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/10/covid-survivors-may-have-four-months-of-protection/?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=hu-twitter-general&utm_medium=social
This continues with the general theme here that outside of some exceptions, immune systems are working as they should: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/health/coronavirus-reinfection.html
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
I don't think anyone is arguing the immune system isn't working. People are questioning the durability of the immune response, not only because this is a novel virus, but in light of suboptimal immunity for other respiratory viruses, including non-SARS coronaviruses.
Hopefully immunity is both potent and long lasting, but IMO it's a little too early to make those assumptions.
worrierking
Footballguy
Another study from Arizona suggests antibodies are still present up to 7 months after illness.
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/10/13/Study-COVID-19-patients-produce-high-quality-antibodies-up-to-7-months-after-recovery/9741602619576/
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/10/13/Study-COVID-19-patients-produce-high-quality-antibodies-up-to-7-months-after-recovery/9741602619576/
worrierking
Footballguy
Derek Lowe (essential reading) comments on the Arizona study and on re-infection. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Good link. As more time passes and few reinfections are reported, the more confident we can be it isn't a huge concern. Still don't think we're out of the woods though, in part because of inadequate immunity to some respiratory viruses despite the presence of neutralizing antibodies.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
tri-man 47
Footballguy
Yeah, world? We jump to over 380,000 new cases today, per Covid worldometers, easily a new high after a few new records just last week. High counts again in Europe and Russia. 43 countries with over 1,000 new cases.
For now at least, deaths are not spiking from prior levels (about 6,000 new deaths today).
For now at least, deaths are not spiking from prior levels (about 6,000 new deaths today).
Mask mandates are extremely helpful but they’re not an end all solution when people remain defiant or willfully ignorant about while they’re doing it. The presence of constant contradictory messages and inconsistencies from experts leave people with only partial understanding.
They hear that being outdoors is better but understand it as being little or no chance of spreading it while outdoors. Countless times I’ve seen people rip their mask off when they leave the store and proceed to approach someone and have a face-to-face conversation inches alway. Or have a large barbecue but it’s ok because they mainly stayed outside.
Or when at a restaurant or bar, they can’t require you to wear a mask while eating, so it’s fine to meet up with your friends and take no further precautions. If you’re not required to wear a mask, it must be a safe environment.
Common sense is a requirement to control the virus that is sorely lacking. I certainly haven’t been perfect and human nature sets in for everyone for time to time. We don’t need to be 100% to be successful, we just be to be a whole lot better than we are now and it starts with proper education and messaging.
They hear that being outdoors is better but understand it as being little or no chance of spreading it while outdoors. Countless times I’ve seen people rip their mask off when they leave the store and proceed to approach someone and have a face-to-face conversation inches alway. Or have a large barbecue but it’s ok because they mainly stayed outside.
Or when at a restaurant or bar, they can’t require you to wear a mask while eating, so it’s fine to meet up with your friends and take no further precautions. If you’re not required to wear a mask, it must be a safe environment.
Common sense is a requirement to control the virus that is sorely lacking. I certainly haven’t been perfect and human nature sets in for everyone for time to time. We don’t need to be 100% to be successful, we just be to be a whole lot better than we are now and it starts with proper education and messaging.
DropKick
Footballguy
encaitar
Footballguy
We're limited by what's acceptable in the US. France is starting to kick on again and they just issued a nationwide curfew for 9pm. If we tried that in the US I can't even imagine what would happen.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
While the messaging from the public health community has been far from ideal, people hear what they want to hear. And pandemic fatigue has clearly set in. It will be interesting to see what a change in leadership
+ winter resurgence does to refocus our efforts.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
I think it's more willful ignorance. Unfortunately, Americans seem more susceptible to misinformation/confirmation bias than the virus itself.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
Got both kids tested yesterday because a few of my son's hockey teammates were in close contact with another hockey player friend who has it. Also, my daughter went to an indoor sweet sixteen party where there was supposed to be social distancing and mask wearing but later turned out to be seriously lacking. I told them both no more going to friends houses without testing negative.
culdeus
Footballguy
So my kids school has teachers that have had exposure and positives in a single grade level. They couldn't get anyone to sub so they had to send the whole grades home for remote for 2 weeks.
The sub crisis is not unique to my kids school, hearing reports of this anecdotally all over the area.
The sub crisis is not unique to my kids school, hearing reports of this anecdotally all over the area.
Dezbelief
Footballguy
My mom said her district has about a tenth of the subs as last year. My daughter's school had to increase class sizes a few weeks in so regular teachers could sub for call ins.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Cross Posted in the PSF:
Here's a Lancet opinion article in opposition to the Barrington Declaration: https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(20)32153-X
from the text (bolded emphasis mine)
Scientific consensus on the COVID-19 pandemic: we need to act now
... The arrival of a second wave and the realisation of the challenges ahead has led to renewed interest in a so-called herd immunity approach, which suggests allowing a large uncontrolled outbreak in the low-risk population while protecting the vulnerable. Proponents suggest this would lead to the development of infection-acquired population immunity in the low-risk population, which will eventually protect the vulnerable.
This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence. Any pandemic management strategy relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed. Uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity and mortality across the whole population. In addition to the human cost, this would impact the workforce as a whole and overwhelm the ability of healthcare systems to provide acute and routine care. Furthermore, there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection, and the endemic transmission that would be the consequence of waning immunity would present a risk to vulnerable populations for the indefinite future.
Such a strategy would not end the COVID-19 pandemic but result in recurrent epidemics, as was the case with numerous infectious diseases before the advent of vaccination. It would also place an unacceptable burden on the economy and healthcare workers, many of whom have died from COVID-19 or experienced trauma as a result of having to practise disaster medicine. Additionally, we still do not understand who might suffer from long COVID. Defining who is vulnerable is complex, but even if we consider those at risk of severe illness, the proportion of vulnerable people constitute as much as 30% of the population in some regions. Prolonged isolation of large swathes of the population is practically impossible and highly unethical. Empirical evidence from many countries shows that it is not feasible to restrict uncontrolled outbreaks to particular sections of society. Such an approach also risks further exacerbating the socioeconomic inequities and structural discriminations already laid bare by the pandemic. Special efforts to protect the most vulnerable are essential but must go hand-in-hand with multi-pronged population-level strategies...
---------------
This is also known as the John Snow Memo: https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/
Here's a Lancet opinion article in opposition to the Barrington Declaration: https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(20)32153-X
from the text (bolded emphasis mine)
Scientific consensus on the COVID-19 pandemic: we need to act now
... The arrival of a second wave and the realisation of the challenges ahead has led to renewed interest in a so-called herd immunity approach, which suggests allowing a large uncontrolled outbreak in the low-risk population while protecting the vulnerable. Proponents suggest this would lead to the development of infection-acquired population immunity in the low-risk population, which will eventually protect the vulnerable.
This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence. Any pandemic management strategy relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed. Uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity and mortality across the whole population. In addition to the human cost, this would impact the workforce as a whole and overwhelm the ability of healthcare systems to provide acute and routine care. Furthermore, there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection, and the endemic transmission that would be the consequence of waning immunity would present a risk to vulnerable populations for the indefinite future.
Such a strategy would not end the COVID-19 pandemic but result in recurrent epidemics, as was the case with numerous infectious diseases before the advent of vaccination. It would also place an unacceptable burden on the economy and healthcare workers, many of whom have died from COVID-19 or experienced trauma as a result of having to practise disaster medicine. Additionally, we still do not understand who might suffer from long COVID. Defining who is vulnerable is complex, but even if we consider those at risk of severe illness, the proportion of vulnerable people constitute as much as 30% of the population in some regions. Prolonged isolation of large swathes of the population is practically impossible and highly unethical. Empirical evidence from many countries shows that it is not feasible to restrict uncontrolled outbreaks to particular sections of society. Such an approach also risks further exacerbating the socioeconomic inequities and structural discriminations already laid bare by the pandemic. Special efforts to protect the most vulnerable are essential but must go hand-in-hand with multi-pronged population-level strategies...
---------------
This is also known as the John Snow Memo: https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/
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Doug B
Footballguy
All right ... I never watched Game of Thrones, but I know that John Snow is a character on that show. Right? Nevertheless, I don't get the reference in this memo's title. Was the other memo's name also a GoT character?
The Z Machine
Footballguy
John Snow was the first scientist to really study and design a public health intervention. https://www.rcseng.ac.uk/library-and-publications/library/blog/mapping-disease-john-snow-and-cholera/
He removed a pump handle from a well in London, which caused Cholera to drop. He mapped and used quantitative data to prove it worked.
It has nothing to do with GoT, but it did get your attention.
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Osaurus
Footballguy
This guy was the first to map an outbreak. He’s essentially the founding father of my profession (not Epidemiology)
The Commish
Footballguy
And since this time there have been tons of testing sources saying they don't understand why their number says X when they sent Y in. We have a segment on our news every couple weeks about this and talking through discrepancies that continue to go unaccounted for.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Just one anecdotal experience - my friend who spent 12 days in ICU with COVID last spring has been closely monitored since recovering. He provides data regarding antibodies to multiple healthcare entities. He was able to make a bit of side money by selling his blood, but only for 4 weeks because that's when he no longer showed any antibodies.
beer 30
Footballguy
Where my daughter teaches the rule is only people in their "bubble" can sub meaning no outside random subs. They have administrative staff and "extra" teachers that don't have an everyday workload that are being used. They recently had the whole admin staff out on quarantine so not sure how they would have handled it if the need for more than 1 or 2 subs arose. So far it hasn't.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
398,600 new cases today. Unbelievable (or ..maybe not). Covid worldometer. The U.S. is at the top of the list today in both new cases and deaths. :(
The Z Machine
Footballguy
You a public health professional?Osaurus said:
Don't Toews Me
Footballguy
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020
This seems intriguing, especially Chapter 2. Looking forward to reading it.
This seems intriguing, especially Chapter 2. Looking forward to reading it.
Osaurus
Footballguy
Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
MTskibum
Footballguy
What is the long term plan if this is the case? What will we be doing 1-4 years down the road if immunity and vaccines only last for the short term?
At that point to we just accept the high death toll or do the at risk people get vaccinated every few months. Does getting a vaccine lower the protection of the next vaccine and if so, what then?
My wife and I are trying to decide what to do next spring, can we go skiing in february, and if we decide that is a possibility do we need to drive there. What about other vacations for next year. This year for our vacations we went to the beach on weekdays when it was uncrowded, we quarantined prior to visiting our also quarantining family, went camping in low population areas, etc. Those are all lower risk vacations, but when can plan on taking more traditional vacations. Can we start planning normal vacations next year.
I did not see any of my friends this year. Think about that for a minute, can I plan on boating with my friends next year?
There are many questions that normal people have and there are no good answers. If immunity and vaccine are both only short term that will complicate these decisions.
AndrewClark
Footballguy
Frustrated to say the least.
I spent 7 months, no job, living alone in strict quarantine. (which did a number on my mental health, see the suicide thread for more info on that)
Just started to have a social life again in a responsible manner, dating a great woman and wanting to introduce her to some friends and vice versa but we seem to be going backwards. And I live in a state who "got it" initially about how to act.
But now I actually am seeing less and less masks on a daily basis, less and less social distancing.
It's anecdotal, I know but I live in the inner city and do see a lot of street and foot traffic daily.
Just frustrated. That's it.
I was supposed to go spend Thanksgiving with my girlfriends family in Pittsburgh, but to be honest, I'm now nervous to go. Backing out would probably ruin our relationship but I don't know.
Grrr.
I spent 7 months, no job, living alone in strict quarantine. (which did a number on my mental health, see the suicide thread for more info on that)
Just started to have a social life again in a responsible manner, dating a great woman and wanting to introduce her to some friends and vice versa but we seem to be going backwards. And I live in a state who "got it" initially about how to act.
But now I actually am seeing less and less masks on a daily basis, less and less social distancing.
It's anecdotal, I know but I live in the inner city and do see a lot of street and foot traffic daily.
Just frustrated. That's it.
I was supposed to go spend Thanksgiving with my girlfriends family in Pittsburgh, but to be honest, I'm now nervous to go. Backing out would probably ruin our relationship but I don't know.
Grrr.
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Wildcat
Footballguy
Woman at our church just passed away from Covid. She was in her mid 70’s. Was on a ventilator for the last 2 weeks. She tested negative the last few days and her family was at least able to see here before she passed. While still on a ventilator, she was improving somewhat but suddenly got worse and died a day later. I’ve been texting her daughter every other day asking how she was doing. Recent texts were all positive until last night when I texted her and she told me she died a few hours ago. She was such a sweet person. I’m so pissed at this anti-mask mindset which also exists with some people in our church. I hope this changes their outlook but I don’t bet on it
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Acquaintance's husband on day 104 in hospital. Guy in mid-late 40s. Over-weight, but certainly not morbidly obese.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
The vaccine can be reformulated and readministered periodically, possible every year like flu. And like flu, we can hope being vaccinated against one strain attenuates the severity of subsequent infections. Lastly, an effective therapeutic may eventually be developed.
In the meantime, practice all the standard NPI. Consider creating social “bubbles” with a few close friends, which will be easier as rapid tests become widely available.
I renewed my epic pass this year, and am tentatively planning on skiing at some point. Will have to re-evaluate as Winter cases likely surge. Regardless, I think boating with a friend or two should be relatively low risk. But I wouldn’t plan a “normal” vacation just yet. Maybe invest in VR headsets?
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
I’m not familiar with the latter study. Are you saying people are putting credence in a p value of 0.86?
MTskibum
Footballguy
The congressman in the twitter post I linked is putting credence in a 0.86 p value.
That study is also circulating on other fantasy football off topic forums and on the texas fishing forums I post at.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RepAndyBiggsAZ/status/1315449047709216768?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1315449047709216768|twgr^share_3%2Ccontainerclick_0&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fftodayforums.com%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FRepAndyBiggsAZ%2Fstatus%2F1315449047709216768%3Fs%3D19
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tri-man 47
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
That’s not how the data would be interpreted. The numbers show no significant difference in self-reported cloth mask use between cases and controls. Any p greater than 0.05 suggests the two groups are within an acceptable level of variability to be accounted for by chance alone. As reported, mask use doesn’t appear to be correlated with risk of infection.
But there are a lot of confounding variables which make interpreting that chart In a vacuum problematic. Notably, the behavior of the two groups likely created different exposure risk:
Also of note:
I’d argue knowing one’s infection status could influence reporting of mask usage as well.
But none of that was discussed when the chart was plucked from the MMWR paper. Funny how that works.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
In case anyone still supports the idea of getting herd immunity to this
8 million Americans now have, or have had, Covid-19.
Over 210,000 are dead, and more of the currently infected will die.
There are 328 million people in the US.
328 million divided by 8 million is 41.
One in 41 people have been infected. That is a huge number.
But it also means that 40 out of 41 people have not yet had this.
So if you're sick, and contagious, it's extremely likely that the person you bump into has not yet been infected. Over 97 percent of Americans have not yet had this.
Herd immunity only works when sick people ars unable to infect many other people because most people they come into contact with have already had it or been vaccinated.
Without a vaccine, getting to herd immunity would mean that about 70 percent of Americans had been infected. Compared with 2.5 percent right now. That's almost 30 times as many people as are already infected.
30 times 210,000 dead is about 6 million people.
Herd immunity without a vaccine would be monstrous on a scale similar to the holocaust.
Wear your mask
8 million Americans now have, or have had, Covid-19.
Over 210,000 are dead, and more of the currently infected will die.
There are 328 million people in the US.
328 million divided by 8 million is 41.
One in 41 people have been infected. That is a huge number.
But it also means that 40 out of 41 people have not yet had this.
So if you're sick, and contagious, it's extremely likely that the person you bump into has not yet been infected. Over 97 percent of Americans have not yet had this.
Herd immunity only works when sick people ars unable to infect many other people because most people they come into contact with have already had it or been vaccinated.
Without a vaccine, getting to herd immunity would mean that about 70 percent of Americans had been infected. Compared with 2.5 percent right now. That's almost 30 times as many people as are already infected.
30 times 210,000 dead is about 6 million people.
Herd immunity without a vaccine would be monstrous on a scale similar to the holocaust.
Wear your mask
