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JohnnyU

Giving up on WR prospects too early is bad

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I was reading from Joe's daily email where Deebo Samuel had more receptions (62) than Jerry Rice (53) and Terrell Owens (36) had in their rookie debut and got me to thinking.  I'm guilty of drafting WR prospects expecting more than I should early and have been guilty of moving them too early before they break out.  I really need to re-evaluate my thinking on that strategy, especially in a 14 team league.  Sometimes we feel it is necessary due to roster constraints (say 22), to trade players like Kelvin Harmon or Parris Campbell to make room for your current year's draft picks, when only one year ago you drafted them, sometimes even early.  I've already traded Harmon  because I don't have room for him in my 14 team devy league (rookie draft and devy draft are separate).  I'm already looking to trade Anthony Miller because of his shoulder injuries and age in the same league.  In the end, not waiting at least three years to trade these players for more draft picks is a mistake, even in shallow roster leagues.   If you have to make room on your roster you're better off trading your WR prospects (less than 3 years) plus other assets for another WR prospect you feel better about.  I've been very successful in 12 team leagues, whether straight up dynasty or devy (includes rookies and devy in the same draft), but not my one 14 team devy league.  I'm trying like hell to remedy that, but I've made plenty of mistakes along the way.  I practically gave away Mahomes before his break out.  I traded Henry and Amari Cooper for two #1 picks and Kevin "stinking" White....that one stung.   I gave up on JuJu too early, but if memory serves I got good value.  I traded two 1st rd picks for James Washington when he was still a devy, then traded him plus 2 first rd picks, plus a devy pick for the #1 overall devy pick this year, which will be Ja'Marr Chase.

In conclusion, I believe my attitude toward WR prospects need to be looked at closer and I'm going to have to show more patience with them if I'm willing to draft them in the 1st or 2nd rd of rookie drafts.  If I must make room  in a shallow roster league I should try and get someone that's just as good of a prospect in a multi-player trade.  At least I have Deebo Samuel in that 14 team league ;)

Edited by JohnnyU
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You make some great points and I think we all have been guilty of giving up too early on a prospect. On the other hand I have hung onto guys too long as well that never amounted to anything. I am in only one dynasty league and roster sizes are small (18) so it is hard for me to be patient. Harmon is actually on the wire but I know if a I grab him now I will just end up dropping probably too early. Chark was a good example of a nice wire find this year from an owner that gave up. But again roster size plays a big role in this. Honestly it has gotten to the point where I try to get rid of 2nd round picks because I don’t want to tip my hand on guys I like. With small roster sizes it is best to wait for the owners to drop the “slow starters” you had interest in and hope you get them before they make too much noise.

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46 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

you forgot an "mmmmmkkkkaayyyyy" at the end

I don't understand.

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Just now, wgoldsph said:

I can't find that tshirt emoji

This isn't one of those kinds of threads, don't you think?  This is more about WR prospect strategy, not my failings in a 14 team devy league because of bad moves.  It's more about developing a better strategy.   But since you brought it up :ptts:

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I think its more stick with your evaluation of a prospect, until you are confident its not happening. I was as low as anyone on N'Keal Harry and Kelvin Harmon last year, so what they did as rookies, means nothing to me, because I was never going to end up with them anyway. They are now valued closer in line with where I always had them. I was driving the DK Metcalf and AJ Brown bandwagons, I had both in the 1.1 conversation last year, and while Brown exceeded expectations, they haven't really changed where I had them. 

On the flip side, I was extremely high on Andy Isabella, I don't think he played enough to make me change my opinion of him, and I'll gladly take him if his value has dropped in other people's eyes, because unlike Harry or Harmon, I liked him coming out. 

This year, I'm already seeing that I'm higher on Ceedee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy, they are the 1.1/1.2 for me, so if they have down rookie years, I'll be more patient with them than I would be with say, Cam Akers, or Justin Jefferson, guys I don't really like anyway. I have Zack Moss as the RB1 in this draft, and while I'm sure he'll start to rise up boards the more people learn about him(like Miles Sanders did last year) I'll probably still be higher on him. 

Its possible that because I have such differing values of players than the consensus, that I'm able to have more patience with the guys I like, but that is kind of built in to my team building strategy, and I'm absolutely an owner who treats players like stocks, and will gladly sell a guy like Derrick Henry(for example) this offseason. 

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1 hour ago, King of the Jungle said:

You make some great points and I think we all have been guilty of giving up too early on a prospect. On the other hand I have hung onto guys too long as well that never amounted to anything.

This.   I think it goes both ways in my experience. You are going to win and lose some....  That said I go into year one as not expecting much if I draft a WR early, I do expect to see some flashes hopefully.

Someone brought up parker, he seems like an example of how long are you actually going to wait?  He looked pretty bad for years so i can;t blame anyone there that moved on from him, it happens.

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

.  I'm guilty of drafting WR prospects expecting more than I should early and have been guilty of moving them too early before they break out.   ;)

That's the benefit of taxi squads, first and second year players only. By the time they have to be on your roster you should have a better idea. Doesn't solve the problem of making room for new picks but at least you don't drop them for a waiver pick. 

I always tell myself I'm not judging until year 3. But patience is a virtue we often lack.

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I think the quick success of the WR's from the 2014 class messed with a lot of our heads.  Made us raise our expectations for WR's to show something quickly or we'd conclude they just did not have it. I'm not sure in any league of mine the guy who picked Davante Adams actually held onto him long enough to see his breakout.

But since I mainly play in FFPC I just accept the fact that cuts are hard and I'm going to cut some players that are going to make me regret it big time later. Not sure there is a correct formula or answer because while I've cut some studs like Kittle and Kelce I've also held onto some players for years waiting for a breakout or re-emergence that never came.  Win some, lose some, just keep plugging.

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How many Josh Doctsons are there for every Davante Parker?

Edited by cloppbeast

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42 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

How many Josh Doctsons are there for every Davante Parker?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there is a lot of the same worries for Harmon as there was for Doctson coming out of college.  I truly believe Harmon is a better version of Doctson, but hopefully you get my meaning.  That said, it's one thing to draft a Harmon or Doctson in the first or second round of a dynasty draft, but quite another to trade for pocket lint just one year later.  I held on to Doctson for a few years but got rid of him.  I know I didn't trade Doctson too soon.  The same can't be said about Harmon....yet.

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I like to make lots of trades involving young WR prospects, in both directions. It seems like their value in other people's minds bounces around in ways that don't line up that closely to how I see them, which creates lots of opportunities to trade them.

For example, here is how things looked to me a year ago in terms of which WRs other people were underrating or overrating. There were a lot of young guys on both of those lists, e.g. I thought that people were overrating James Washington & underrating DJ Chark - both of those guys had similarly bad rookie years and they should've fallen a similar amount but for some reason Chark fell way further than Washington.

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Lived through this "hold and hope" scenario a few times - Parker and Treadwell in early to mid first round - still holding Parker and may get a reasonable ROI - Treadwell has been disposed of - but I do agree you have to be willing to settle in and have a roster slot that's not going to contribute for, perhaps, years.  Gotta have confidence in your player evals and ride the wild surf . . . 

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There are always guys that end up breaking out late, but there are just as many that never break out at all.  I dropped Devante Parker across the board this year after Preston Williams broke out. 

But there are countless guys like Cordarrelle Patterson, Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson, Tavon Austin, and DHB, that people hold onto forever.  And although not a WR, never forget the Christine Michael love.  Think how many valuable assets in the form of waiver pickups or trade opportunities that owners DIDN'T acquire because they "believed."  If the player ends up breaking out, you wish you'd held longer, and if they don't, you wish you got rid of them sooner. 

But that's what makes this game fun.  It is a LOT harder than it used to be, because now EVERYONE has easy access to updated information.  It used to be that you could put in some work and have a consistent advantage on your opponents.  The default draft lists (rookie or redraft) are pretty close, so there is very little room to get a consistent advantage.  Before fantasy football news was everywhere, you could show up for a draft with people who had magazines printed months earlier.  I've literally seen someone draft a player that was dead.  Now, a person can access an up-to-date cheatsheet on his phone, not having looked at a single thing before the draft, and do just fine. 

 

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If you give up on WR prospects because you're rostering the flavor of the week is one thing, but if you're moving these guys because of roster space is another.  Roster space is very valuable in shallow leagues.  In fact, moving WR prospects + other assets for other WR prospects when you're thinking about roster space is actually a smart thing.

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I think it’s more along the lines of the community at large being bad at judging what is a good rookie season. No way should DJ Moore have been traded after his rookie season much like AJ Brown and DK Metcalf shouldn’t this offseason. I’d argue Samuel and McLaurin are much higher risks and I’d also argue that you should sell Harry and Isabella given their rookie failures and the history of busts not producing as rookies.

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1 minute ago, Iceman03 said:

I think it’s more along the lines of the community at large being bad at judging what is a good rookie season. No way should DJ Moore have been traded after his rookie season much like AJ Brown and DK Metcalf shouldn’t this offseason. I’d argue Samuel and McLaurin are much higher risks and I’d also argue that you should sell Harry and Isabella given their rookie failures and the history of busts not producing as rookies.

Isn't it a little early for that?  Unless you replace them with high upside young WRs?

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I've been in this spot several times with stacked rosters and with rosters built for the future in the "Progressive Struggle" model.

At the end of a championship season I owned:

Julio, Evans, Tyreek, Kupp, Golladay, Boyd, and.Alshon.  Kupp, and Golladay were successful rookies, so they don't exactly fit this mold, but I drafted both in the 3rd round of the rookie draft, and they didn't have high draft capital.  I decided to move Boyd, Kupp, and Golladay in multiple trades in order to move up to the 1.02 to take Guice, who obviously never produced fantasy points.  I was desperate for a RB 2 and I killed my depth.

 

In a start-up dynasty auction draft I stocked up on rookie WR's I was able to get for cheap, and traded win now veteran QB's and RB's I snagged up cheap for future picks during the season.  I own 6 of the top 16 picks along with the Free Agent 1.01 which always ends up being a must add to your roster.

I have Mecole Hardman, Diontae Johnson, Isabella, JJAW, and Jalen Hurd.  Bought them for a total of $23 on a $400 auction budget, so Hardman and Diontae Johnson have paid off.  I have to trade away one of these other guys that have upside that I don't want to let go of.

I've watched other owners stack up young potential, only to have to sell them too soon to fit new young potential with a higher rookie draft pick onto their roster.  At some point you are forced to cut bait on a guy and move on, and all you can do is make an educated guess.

 

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Isn't it a little early for that?  Unless you replace them with high upside young WRs?

Incorrect info in this post... see two posts below. 

Edited by Iceman03
Incorrect

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Also to give more perspective 60% of rookies who scored over 150 PPR points went on to post one or more top 24 season in the rest of their respective careers.

ETA: That would be AJ Brown, DK Metcalf and Deebo. So I retract my previous statement. DO NOT TRADE Deebo.

Edited by Iceman03

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Ugh... pro football reference search failed me again. There were 19 1st rounders under 50 points PPR between 1994-2019:

Plaxico, Dorsett, Craig Davis, Yatil Green, Harry, Kevin White, R. Jay Soward, DHB, Rashaun Woods, Mike Williams (LAC version), Michael Jenkins, Johnny Morton, Marcus Nash, Josh Doctson, Ike Hilliard, Santana Moss, Thomas Lewis, Laquon Treadwell, AJ Jenkins, and John Ross. 

🤢

Edited by Iceman03
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35 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

Ugh... pro football reference search failed me again. There were 19 1st rounders under 50 points PPR between 1994-2019:

Plaxico, Dorsett, Craig Davis, Yatil Green, Harry, Kevin White, R. Jay Soward, DHB, Rashaun Woods, Mike Williams (LAC version), Michael Jenkins, Johnny Morton, Marcus Nash, Josh Doctson, Ike Hilliard, Santana Moss, Thomas Lewis, Laquon Treadwell, AJ Jenkins, and John Ross. 

🤢

I thought Plaxico had his moments?

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4 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I thought Plaxico had his moments?

I like when you show a person a piece of info they quickly point to the best case scenario when the other 75-99% of the info suggests terrible news.

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Just now, Iceman03 said:

I like when you show a person a piece of info they quickly point to the best case scenario when the other 75-99% of the info suggests terrible news.

wut?

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4 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

wut?

I didn’t list Plaxico because he was bad, I listed him because he was part of a group to post <50 points their rookie season. I don’t understand how you get confused all the time. 

Harry stands a 75-90% chance of busting right now based off what he did as a rookie while DK, Deebo and AJ Brown stand a 60% chance of being a stud. Is that more clear?

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49 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

Ugh... pro football reference search failed me again. There were 19 1st rounders under 50 points PPR between 1994-2019:

Plaxico, Dorsett, Craig Davis, Yatil Green, Harry, Kevin White, R. Jay Soward, DHB, Rashaun Woods, Mike Williams (LAC version), Michael Jenkins, Johnny Morton, Marcus Nash, Josh Doctson, Ike Hilliard, Santana Moss, Thomas Lewis, Laquon Treadwell, AJ Jenkins, and John Ross. 

🤢

This should be listed as a 5 year stat.  The NFL was pathetically sloppy and behind the times in adapting to analytics when most of these guys were drafted. 

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10 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

I didn’t list Plaxico because he was bad, I listed him because he was part of a group to post <50 points their rookie season. I don’t understand how you get confused all the time. 

Harry stands a 75-90% chance of busting right now based off what he did as a rookie while DK, Deebo and AJ Brown stand a 60% chance of being a stud. Is that more clear?

You are definitely too hung up on stats alone.  There are many factors to consider, including supporting cast, coaches, GM, usage, etc.

Edited by JohnnyU

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I'd be looking to sell Harry right now, given where I've seen other people ranking him. I've seen him ranked close to guys like Robert Woods, Marquise Brown, DeVante Parker, Mike Williams, and Will Fuller. I'd take any of them over him, some by a pretty wide margin. (Although I don't own Harry anywhere so the point is moot for me.)

I'm looking to buy Isabella. I've seen him ranked behind vets like Golden Tate, Tyrell Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Dede Westbrook, and Jamison Crowder. I'd take Isabella over any of them.

JJAW I have ranked pretty close to Isabella. Other people seem to like him more than Isabella, so Isabella seems like a better target, but you could put out feelers for Arcega-Whiteside too.

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In the JJAW thread I said the only hope to hold onto is that JJAW's numbers in his rookie year were similar to Chark.  The same goes for Isabella.  The only problem with me justifying that is that Chark had Bortles in his first year and JJAW and Isabella had much better QB play.

Edited by BINGBING

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22 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

You are definitely too hung up on stats.  You wont't win in fantasy football doing that.

Lol, ok. I was in the playoffs every league I was in with the exception of one redraft last year. I made the championship in five of those leagues. Whatever you say boss. You’re right without any proof. As always.

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I just did a 40 year study on the top RB & WR drafted each year.  We have some great hits, but we have some horrible misses too.  Only 16 top drafted WR's in 40 years have ever had even a single WR1 season in their entire career.  Compare that to the RB's, who have had 16 RB1 seasons in their rookie year alone.  Using the 40 top drafted WR's each year as our sample, here is the year that each of the 16 who reached WR1 status accomplished it:

1st season - Willie Gault
2nd season - Amari Cooper, AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Torry Holt, Al Toon
3rd season - Demaryius Thomas, Braylon Edwards, Keyshawn Johnson, Curtis Conway, Herman Moore
4th season - Haywood Jeffires
5th season - Michael Westbrook
6th season - Tim Brown
10th season - Irving Fryar

To me, the numbers suggest if you haven't broken out by season 3, it's unlikely that you will.  For every Tim Brown or Irving Fryar, there are numerous guys like Corey Davis, Corey Coleman, Tavon Austin, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Donnie Avery, Donte Stallworth, and the list goes on.

FWIW, the #2 drafted WR each year have had better careers overall.  Compare to above...

1st season - Mike Evans, Randy Moss, Eddie Brown
2nd season - Julio Jones, Andre Rison, Sterling Sharpe
3rd season - DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Roy Williams, Plaxico Burress, David Boston, Joey Galloway, Carl Pickens
4th season - Tim McGee
5th season - Art Monk
6th season - Andre Johnson, Henry Ellard
8th season - Michael Crabtree
10th season - Terry Glenn

Only 9 of 40 seasons have the top 2 drafted WR's ever both had WR1 seasons (2011 - Green/Jones), 2010 (Thomas/Bryant), 2004 (Fitzgerald/Williams), 1999 (Holt/Boston), 1996 (Johnson/Glenn), 1995 (Westbrook/Galloway), 1988 (Brown/Sharpe), 1985 (Toon/Brown), and 1983 (Gault/Ellard).  In 14 of 40 seasons, the top 2 drafted WR's have never had a WR1 season.

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9 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

Old man: “YOU CAN’T USE STATS IN A STATS BASED GAME”

Ok, boomer.

I'm in my prime :)

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9 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

Lol, ok. I was in the playoffs every league I was in with the exception of one redraft last year. I made the championship in five of those leagues. Whatever you say boss. You’re right without any proof. As always.

I believe there are many factors, not relying on stats alone is all I'm saying.

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10 hours ago, ZWK said:

I'd be looking to sell Harry right now, given where I've seen other people ranking him. I've seen him ranked close to guys like Robert Woods, Marquise Brown, DeVante Parker, Mike Williams, and Will Fuller. I'd take any of them over him, some by a pretty wide margin. (Although I don't own Harry anywhere so the point is moot for me.)

I'm looking to buy Isabella. I've seen him ranked behind vets like Golden Tate, Tyrell Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Dede Westbrook, and Jamison Crowder. I'd take Isabella over any of them.

JJAW I have ranked pretty close to Isabella. Other people seem to like him more than Isabella, so Isabella seems like a better target, but you could put out feelers for Arcega-Whiteside too.

I remember when people here were down on Robert Woods, in a big way.

Edited by JohnnyU

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Reading over this thread it sure sounds like people still put a value on Isabella. 

He's the only player I've ever used a first or second round pick on a rookie draft I did not let make it through the season. In fact I cut him after like week 2 or 3. I have no regrets. Honestly surprised people think he still has trade value.

What I think you got to also factor in, and I do play mainly FFPC where this is more critical, is basically the reverse of this thread. How many players did holding onto a non-productive WR or any position waiting for the breakout to happen that never came cost you a player that actually hit because you were tied up an available roster spot?

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2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Reading over this thread it sure sounds like people still put a value on Isabella. 

He's the only player I've ever used a first or second round pick on a rookie draft I did not let make it through the season. In fact I cut him after like week 2 or 3. I have no regrets. Honestly surprised people think he still has trade value.

What I think you got to also factor in, and I do play mainly FFPC where this is more critical, is basically the reverse of this thread. How many players did holding onto a non-productive WR or any position waiting for the breakout to happen that never came cost you a player that actually hit because you were tied up an available roster spot?

My opinions are solely related to dynasty or devy.

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

My opinions are solely related to dynasty or devy.

Duh

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8 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Duh

Well, I'm sure some drafted one or two of these rookies in redraft and certainly in limited keeper leagues.

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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Well, I'm sure some drafted one or two of these rookies in redraft and certainly in limited keeper leagues.

Yes Isabella was drafted in almost redraft league of mine but one would have to awfully thick to read over this thread and think it was redraft.

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I am fairly new to dynasty but have been going through a steep learning curve. 

I traded Sutton, Miller, Gallup, James Washington last offseason. I turned around and traded back for Gallup and Sutton- which ultimately had me coming out ahead IMO. 

I think the OP makes good points. 

A year ago I couldnt give away Gallup (at least for a mid 2nd). Miller was in the same boat. 

Going forward I'm taking those lessons learned and applying to JJAW and Isabella. Both were very underwhelming each for different reasons, but I am optimistic. 

ultimately you have to trust the talent. At least until year 3. The problem though is that if they havent broken out by year 3 they are worthless. 

Corey Davis is a great example. Before w018 and even 2019 you could have gotten a 1st for him. Now his value is tanked. 

Parker is an example of needing to wait. Maybe Davis follows the same path. 

WRa are tricky. I think I've fine tuned my selection process to weed out the likely busts to increase the chances of getting a hit. In the end I think that's the better way to go about it- find out who is likely to not hit. Predicting hits is difficult but there are clear patterns in predicting misses. 

Regarding your statement "if they haven't broken out by year 3 they are worthless".  Well, sometimes you have to roll the dice with risk.  Sometimes it works in your favor, sometimes it doesn't.  I know this, I'd rather end up with someone that is worthless after 3 years, taking the risk they turn into something big,  than get a 1st rd pick back for a player that becomes a stud.  Now I haven't lived up to that in my 14 team league and for me personally I'm adjusting my strategy going forward.  I find it very difficult to wait 3 years on a non-producing player.  I don't have any issues waiting a couple years however.  I don't seem to have any issues in 12 team dynasty / devy leagues, but I'm obviously doing something wrong in my 14 team dynasty / devy league and I hope to remedy that.

Edited by JohnnyU
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On 1/31/2020 at 10:36 AM, travdogg said:

I think its more stick with your evaluation of a prospect, until you are confident its not happening. I was as low as anyone on N'Keal Harry and Kelvin Harmon last year, so what they did as rookies, means nothing to me, because I was never going to end up with them anyway. They are now valued closer in line with where I always had them. I was driving the DK Metcalf and AJ Brown bandwagons, I had both in the 1.1 conversation last year, and while Brown exceeded expectations, they haven't really changed where I had them. 

On the flip side, I was extremely high on Andy Isabella, I don't think he played enough to make me change my opinion of him, and I'll gladly take him if his value has dropped in other people's eyes, because unlike Harry or Harmon, I liked him coming out. 

This year, I'm already seeing that I'm higher on Ceedee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy, they are the 1.1/1.2 for me, so if they have down rookie years, I'll be more patient with them than I would be with say, Cam Akers, or Justin Jefferson, guys I don't really like anyway. I have Zack Moss as the RB1 in this draft, and while I'm sure he'll start to rise up boards the more people learn about him(like Miles Sanders did last year) I'll probably still be higher on him. 

Its possible that because I have such differing values of players than the consensus, that I'm able to have more patience with the guys I like, but that is kind of built in to my team building strategy, and I'm absolutely an owner who treats players like stocks, and will gladly sell a guy like Derrick Henry(for example) this offseason. 

Thanks for sharing. I like Jeudy and Lamb a lot too. Jeudy better than Lamb too. What does your RB list look like if Zach Moss is #1. You are a free thinker.

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I agree completely, just pointing out the other side of the argument. I think it's good practice to hold your wrs unless you are overwhelmed with a trade offer. 

Example: last offseason I was offered 1.10 (AJ Brown) and a 2020 1st (1.4) for Sutton. I didnt want to trade Sutton but I couldnt pass it up. I was able to trade him back later in the summer for Washington and Gallup. then 2.2 and Corey Davis for Gallup after week 3 or 4. 

 

I agree that holding your wrs, especially high picks, is the best way to go. You always have more picks, and WR is a deeper position than rb anyways, in general. 

A few weeks ago someone offered me Swift for AJ Brown in a devy league and I refused.  I wonder whether that one will come home to roost.

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Continuing my post from page 1, here are how the 3rd & 4th overall WR's drafted each of the last 40 years have done, as far as breaking into the top 12:

3rd overall
1st season - Odell Beckham, Cris Collinsworth
2nd season - Ernest Givins, Jerry Rice
3rd season - Javon Walker
4th season - Jordy Nelson, Dwayne Bowe, Michael Irvin
5th season - Devante Parker, Jimmy Smith
6th season - Jeremy Maclin

4th overall
1st season - Louis Lipps
2nd season - Greg Jennings, Anthony Miller, Webster Slaughter, Mike Quick, Kevin House
3rd season - Brandin Cooks, Percy Harvin, Lee Evans, Santana Moss, Derrick Alexander
4th season - Marvin Harrison, Ricky Proehl
5th season - Golden Tate

So, of the top 4 WR's drafted each of the last 40 years, 60 had at least one WR1 season.  Of the 160 WR's, that's a rate of 37.5% (and I will say this sample size is more than enough).  Of course, I am not claiming you must have at least one WR1 season to not be a bust, but I think it's relative as to where you were drafted.  If you were the overall #1 in a given year and never have a WR1 season, I would consider you a relative bust.  On the other hand, if you were the 10th WR taken and have a handful of WR2 seasons but never reach WR1 status, you were a relative hit.  Also, if you compare all the WR's I've listed, you will see being selected 1st or 2nd overall has a much better "hit rate" than being selected 3rd or 4th, to the tune of 43.75% to 31.25%.

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Larger roster size really helps. Nothing worse than being the first to spot somebody but have to drop him to compete on a weekly level. And good luck ever getting him back.

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If anyone cares I looked a little deeper... expanded to the first three rounds of the NFL draft for the last 20 years. WR’s under 100 points PPR their rookie season only had success 10% of the time beyond their rookie year. WR’s under 50 points PPR only 6% of the time. Sell off bust WR’s early while you can still get some value.

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