Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
JohnnyU

Giving up on WR prospects too early is bad

Recommended Posts

If anyone cares I looked a little deeper... expanded to the first three rounds of the NFL draft for the last 20 years. WR’s under 100 points PPR their rookie season only had success 10% of the time beyond their rookie year. WR’s under 50 points PPR only 6% of the time. Sell off bust WR’s early while you can still get some value.

  • Like 1
  • Thinking 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/31/2020 at 9:36 AM, travdogg said:

I think its more stick with your evaluation of a prospect, until you are confident its not happening. I was as low as anyone on N'Keal Harry and Kelvin Harmon last year, so what they did as rookies, means nothing to me, because I was never going to end up with them anyway. They are now valued closer in line with where I always had them. I was driving the DK Metcalf and AJ Brown bandwagons, I had both in the 1.1 conversation last year, and while Brown exceeded expectations, they haven't really changed where I had them. 

On the flip side, I was extremely high on Andy Isabella, I don't think he played enough to make me change my opinion of him, and I'll gladly take him if his value has dropped in other people's eyes, because unlike Harry or Harmon, I liked him coming out. 

This year, I'm already seeing that I'm higher on Ceedee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy, they are the 1.1/1.2 for me, so if they have down rookie years, I'll be more patient with them than I would be with say, Cam Akers, or Justin Jefferson, guys I don't really like anyway. I have Zack Moss as the RB1 in this draft, and while I'm sure he'll start to rise up boards the more people learn about him(like Miles Sanders did last year) I'll probably still be higher on him. 

Its possible that because I have such differing values of players than the consensus, that I'm able to have more patience with the guys I like, but that is kind of built in to my team building strategy, and I'm absolutely an owner who treats players like stocks, and will gladly sell a guy like Derrick Henry(for example) this offseason. 

Zake Moss is currently my #2. The more I look at him the more I see a Bellcow at the next level.

Tex

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Iceman03 said:

If anyone cares I looked a little deeper... expanded to the first three rounds of the NFL draft for the last 20 years. WR’s under 100 points PPR their rookie season only had success 10% of the time beyond their rookie year. WR’s under 50 points PPR only 6% of the time. Sell off bust WR’s early while you can still get some value.

Hmmm?  I did a deep dive also, but was concentrating on when a WR became a WR1.  I didn't take the time to record their rookie finish, unless it was a WR1 season.  I think I will apply your 100 PPR figure to the 60 WR's I've already mentioned, and see how they compare.  Thanx

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

If anyone cares I looked a little deeper... expanded to the first three rounds of the NFL draft for the last 20 years. WR’s under 100 points PPR their rookie season only had success 10% of the time beyond their rookie year. WR’s under 50 points PPR only 6% of the time. Sell off bust WR’s early while you can still get some value.

I forgot to ask - you say "success 10% of the time beyond their rookie year".  What threshold did you use for success?  TIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Gandalf said:

Thanks for sharing. I like Jeudy and Lamb a lot too. Jeudy better than Lamb too. What does your RB list look like if Zach Moss is #1. You are a free thinker.

I had Jeudy ahead of Lamb about 2 months ago, but have since flipped them. I think Lamb is that rare WR prospect who is truly can't miss. He can win on every level, inside or outside, short or deep. Jeudy has a higher ceiling based on his superior athleticism, but I think he has slightly more risk, as he has not shown the same inside/outside versatility that Lamb has. He may very well have it, there just isn't as much evidence of it. While they weren't the same draft year, its a little like a Hopkins/Beckham debate. These are the 2 best WR's to come out since at least Amari Cooper in my opinion, with the caveat that even the strongest Michael Thomas supporter had no idea he'd be this good.

Moss has sorta backed into being my RB1, he was my RB3 2 months ago, but I've come around on him over Swift, as I think he projects into being more of a bellcow, and in my opinion did more to carry his offense than Swift did. Like at WR, Swift is flashier and likely has a higher ceiling, especially in PPR, but I can't see Moss being a bust, and that counts for a ton to me. Moss has some Arian Foster to his game, where he doesn't wow you right away, but he keeps getting 2-3 more yards than he should, and has no real holes in his game. 

I had Etienne as my RB1, but with him staying in school, Moss has taken the mantle for me. I have Swift 2nd, Taylor 3rd, Dobbins 4th, and after that, I'm not really a big fan of any other RB's. Edwards-Helaire is my RB5, but he might be a better NFL back than fantasy back. He gives off a bit of a Philip Lindsay/Austin Ekeler vibe, where he may not ever be a bellcow, but he creates a lot of big plays. If he goes to the right offense he could be a PPR dynamo. I have Moss/Swift as tier 1, and Taylor/Dobbins as tier 2. So Moss/Swift are probably 3/4 for me, and Taylor/Dobbins are more like 7/8 overall.

This is a much better WR draft than RB draft, as last year was too, only there weren't WR's in the same class as Lamb/Jeudy, and I say that as someone driving, or at least riding shotgun, the DK Metcalf bandwagon. 

Side note, while I do certainly have my own views on prospects, and have a better hit rate than the consensus I think, I have some big misses too. I was not a fan at all of Devin Singletary last year, and while I did like him, I was nowhere near high enough on Nick Chubb, who I think has a solid case for RB1 going forward. On the flip side, I was very patient in waiting for Chris Godwin to produce to the level his talent always suggested was possible, and was always a huge Dalvin Cook fan, though I think he's probably a great sell high this offseason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

If anyone cares I looked a little deeper... expanded to the first three rounds of the NFL draft for the last 20 years. WR’s under 100 points PPR their rookie season only had success 10% of the time beyond their rookie year. WR’s under 50 points PPR only 6% of the time. Sell off bust WR’s early while you can still get some value.

Of my list, 43 out of 60 (72%) who scored at least 100 points PPR in their rookie season went on to have at least 1 WR1 season.  That said, here are the current WR's drafted as one of the 1st four in their class who have yet to have their WR1 season:

2019 - Deebo Samuel, Marquise Brown, AJ Brown
2018 - Dante Pettis, Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley
2017 - none
2016 - Will Fuller
2015 - none
2014 - Sammy Watkins

So, who from this list will make their WR1 in 2020?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Of my list, 43 out of 60 (72%) who scored at least 100 points PPR in their rookie season went on to have at least 1 WR1 season.  That said, here are the current WR's drafted as one of the 1st four in their class who have yet to have their WR1 season:

2019 - Deebo Samuel, Marquise Brown, AJ Brown
2018 - Dante Pettis, Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley
2017 - none
2016 - Will Fuller
2015 - none
2014 - Sammy Watkins

So, who from this list will make their WR1 in 2020?

Maybe I’m doing it wrong but DJ Moore was WR #12 in my league this year (PPR).  Doesn’t that qualify him as a WR1?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Boone22 said:

Maybe I’m doing it wrong but DJ Moore was WR #12 in my league this year (PPR).  Doesn’t that qualify him as a WR1?

It's customary to use end of year stats when compiling data, and he finished WR15 in PPR.  Can you imagine the hours it would take to go back 40 years, remove week 17, and recalculate for every player in the league?

P.S.  DJ is not a bust and will eventually become a WR1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

It's customary to use end of year stats when compiling data, and he finished WR15 in PPR.  Can you imagine the hours it would take to go back 40 years, remove week 17, and recalculate for every player in the league?

P.S.  DJ is not a bust and will eventually become a WR1.

Python

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While I appreciate you guys looking back at data and trying to determine the odds of players becoming useful for fantasy or not.

I don't think anyone has done that properly in the thread however. There have been odds thrown out here that I am not sure are accurate.

Over the last 5 seasons the top 12 RB have averaged 266 points in PPR. The top 12 WR have averaged 280 points. What this tells me is that the WR and RB top players are scoring pretty close to the same amount of points. In fact the WR have been scoring more points than the RB have.

This is what that looks like by season

2019

RB 270

WR 267

2018

RB 300

WR 304

2017

RB 256

WR 258

2016

RB 275

WR 267

2015

RB 232

WR 306

So the seasons the top 12 RB have outscored the top 12 WR was 2019 and 2016

That screams recency bias to me.

What do we want to know?

How valuable can a young WR be for fantasy football compared to other positions like RB?

Some things we do know in a general sense is that WR do not tend to perform at their highest level as rookies, but most of the WR who are useful for fantasy football will produce good numbers by their 3rd season in the league. There are some WR who become useful fantasy players after their 3rd season but most of those are exceptions.

For RB the rookie season is also their least productive season on average, but a RB most productive seasons are in the first six seasons of their careers and some research by the Winz showing that the RB are most productive in their first four seasons. We know that RB careers tend to decline on average after their age 25 season.

So the dynamic in play here is that the RB are more likely to be useful for fantasy purposes in their first 3 seasons than a WR is. A useful WR is likely to have a longer career of being useful for fantasy (if they are at all) than a RB will.

So how do you balance these two factors in how you value the players?

It certainly isn't a slam dunk that RB are worth more than WR are.

Edited by Biabreakable
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So I looked at how many times over the last 5 seasons a player finished in the top 12 at WR and RB within their first 3 seasons in the league.

WR in the top 12 who were in their first 3 seasons

2015 Jarvis Landry Allen Robinson Odell Beckham DeAndre Hopkins

2016 Mike Evans Odell Beckham Michael Thomas Devante Adams Brandin Cooks

2017 Michael Thomas Tyreek Hill

2018 Tyreek Hill Michael Thomas JuJU Smith Schuster

2019 Michael Thomas Chris Godwin Cooper Kupp Kenny Golladay

18 of the top 12 seasons were by players in their first 3 seasons 30%

 

RB in the top 12 who were in their first 3 seasons

2015 Devonta Freeman David Johnson Todd Gurley

2016 David Johnson Ezekiel Elliot Devonta Freeman Melvin Gordon Jordan Howard Jay Ajayi

2017 Todd Gurley Alvin Kamara Kareem Hunt Melvin Gordon Christian McCaffrey Leonard Fournette Duke Johnson Esekiel Elliot

2018 Christian McCaffrey Sanquon Barkley Alvin Kamara Ezekiel Elliot James Conner Joe Mixon Tarik Cohen Kareem Hunt

2019 Christian McCaffrey Aaron Jones Austin Ekeler Dalvin Cook Leonard Fournette Nick Chubb Alvin Kamara Sanquon Barkley Chris Carson

34 of of the top 12 seasons were by players in their first 3 seasons 56%

So RB have produced twice as many a top 12 seasons in the first 3 years of their careers than the WR have over the last 5 seasons.

I would remind you all that there were two seasons of no 1st round RB being drafted that led into this and may be skewing things slightly in favor of the WR just because there was a lack of top RB talent for a couple years leaving more room for these younger RB to climb up the heap. Looking at the 5 seasons prior to this might tell us something different.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/31/2020 at 10:34 PM, Iceman03 said:

Harry stands a 75-90% chance of busting right now based off what he did as a rookie while DK, Deebo and AJ Brown stand a 60% chance of being a stud. Is that more clear?

No. You would need to unpack that for me.

I see you are looking at only 1st round picks at WR how many of the top 12 WR for fantasy were 1st round picks?

Also I see you are looking at 150 point threshold for a rookie performance. 

Well Chris Godwin did not meet either of your criteria yet he was the 2nd highest scoring WR last season.

Whatever I do I do not want my method to miss important performances like this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, TheWinz said:

It's customary to use end of year stats when compiling data, and he finished WR15 in PPR.  Can you imagine the hours it would take to go back 40 years, remove week 17, and recalculate for every player in the league?

P.S.  DJ is not a bust and will eventually become a WR1.

I agree with you that DJ is a WR1.  But looking at my league from weeks 1-16 he shows up as WR 12.  Week 17 is not included.  Not sure what’s different but this league uses pretty standard PPR scoring.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

While I appreciate you guys looking back at data and trying to determine the odds of players becoming useful for fantasy or not.

I don't think anyone has done that properly in the thread however. There have been odds thrown out here that I am not sure are accurate.

Over the last 5 seasons the top 12 RB have averaged 266 points in PPR. The top 12 WR have averaged 280 points. What this tells me is that the WR and RB top players are scoring pretty close to the same amount of points. In fact the WR have been scoring more points than the RB have.

This is what that looks like by season

2019

RB 270

WR 267

2018

RB 300

WR 304

2017

RB 256

WR 258

2016

RB 275

WR 267

2015

RB 232

WR 306

So the seasons the top 12 RB have outscored the top 12 WR was 2019 and 2016

That screams recency bias to me.

What do we want to know?

How valuable can a young WR be for fantasy football compared to other positions like RB?

Some things we do know in a general sense is that WR do not tend to perform at their highest level as rookies, but most of the WR who are useful for fantasy football will produce good numbers by their 3rd season in the league. There are some WR who become useful fantasy players after their 3rd season but most of those are exceptions.

For RB the rookie season is also their least productive season on average, but a RB most productive seasons are in the first six seasons of their careers and some research by the Winz showing that the RB are most productive in their first four seasons. We know that RB careers tend to decline on average after their age 25 season.

So the dynamic in play here is that the RB are more likely to be useful for fantasy purposes in their first 3 seasons than a WR is. A useful WR is likely to have a longer career of being useful for fantasy (if they are at all) than a RB will.

So how do you balance these two factors in how you value the players?

It certainly isn't a slam dunk that RB are worth more than WR are.

Just as there is no cure for cancer, there is no actual formula for winning FF.  We are just bored and crunching numbers, because the FF season is over.  Heck, I don't even play dynasty.  I have created lots of excel spreadsheets with numbers galore.  There are certainly trends in the data, but what does it all really mean?  I guess, as a general rule, the higher you are drafted, the better your NFL career will be.  But even that statement is up for debate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

No. You would need to unpack that for me.

I see you are looking at only 1st round picks at WR how many of the top 12 WR for fantasy were 1st round picks?

Also I see you are looking at 150 point threshold for a rookie performance. 

Well Chris Godwin did not meet either of your criteria yet he was the 2nd highest scoring WR last season.

Whatever I do I do not want my method to miss important performances like this.

People in fantasy football are so arrogant. You really think you’re going to hit 100% of the time don’t you?

Better cut off is 75 points PPR. 

Search is 75 points PPR between 2000-2019. I was looking at BMI >26 for my own purposes but am including every 1st through 3rd rounder since the year 2000. Your top 12’s in a sample size of 133 players are Santana Moss, Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, DT, Reggie Wayne and Eric Decker. Your top 24’s are Golden Tate and DJ Chark. There are a few maybes: I’ll take out James Washington, Mike Williams and Curtis Samuel for the sake of this plus the five rookies this year. That leaves 125 players in the search.

5% of those under 75 points went on to post WR1 seasons. 6.4% went on to have a WR1 or WR2 season. 

Even I were just ludicrously wrong about the 2019 players who had busts and said all players excluded were top 24 players that’s a 13.6% hit rate. 

In a search of rookies who had >150 points yielded 45 players. Of those that failed to yield a top 24 season beyond that: Justin Blackmon, Donnie Avery, Michael Clayton, Keary Colbert, Cordarelle Patterson, Eddie Royal, Sterling Shepard and Peter Warrick. That’s an 82.2% hit rate for at least one “good” season beyond their rookie year. 

If this is about N’Keal Harry, well I don’t know what to tell you. He stands a very small percentage of overcoming his ####ty rookie year. He matches a lot of metrics that say he should be good. He also matches the same metrics that Corey Davis, Jon Baldwin, Donte Moncrief and Stephen Hill matched. 

Edited by Iceman03

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTW here are the list of 3rd rounders with >150 points PPR in their rookie season since 2000:

Keenan Allen

Terry McLaurin

TY Hilton

Cooper Kupp

Tyler Lockett

Diontae Johnson

Darrell Jackson (of Seahawks success)

Mike Wallace

Edited by Iceman03

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

People in fantasy football are so arrogant. You really think you’re going to hit 100% of the time don’t you?

You are projecting here. If you allow pride to get in the way you will never be able to see the truth.

I certainly do not have an unrealistic idea that players will hit 100% of the time by any subdivision of data analysis. I have never seen that. There are always exceptions.

Where I take issue with your previous statement is that you are calling people Boomers for not understanding the analytic process or rejecting it out of hand then proceeding to present facile analysis that does not answer the question either.

I won't bother with the rest of your post that goes down the BMI rabbit hole. What you have presented doesn't seem accurate to begin with. Its full of holes. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/1/2020 at 12:11 PM, Dr. Dan said:

Corey Davis is a great example. Before w018 and even 2019 you could have gotten a 1st for him. Now his value is tanked. 

Parker is an example of needing to wait. Maybe Davis follows the same path.

Hanging on to Parker would have been a colossal mistake and misuse of draft capital.  The right move with Corey Davis is to cut bait and get whatever you can for him.  If he produces a season like Parker did this past year even once in his career, it still doesn't make it the right move to have held on to him. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

You are projecting here. If you allow pride to get in the way you will never be able to see the truth.

I certainly do not have an unrealistic idea that players will hit 100% of the time by any subdivision of data analysis. I have never seen that. There are always exceptions.

Where I take issue with your previous statement is that you are calling people Boomers for not understanding the analytic process or rejecting it out of hand then proceeding to present facile analysis that does not answer the question either.

I won't bother with the rest of your post that goes down the BMI rabbit hole. What you have presented doesn't seem accurate to begin with. Its full of holes. 

 

Lol, explain how please. I eliminated the BMI aspect. It was a mass sample from 2000-2019. If you can’t understand that only 5% of the sample went on to WR1 seasons that’s not my problem. If you think you can identify the next players that are in that cohort you are the Warren Buffett of fantasy football, congrats. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not complicated:

133 player sample.

-8 (rookies plus Washington, Samuel, Mike Williams)

125 player sample of rookie seasons from 2000-2019 rounds 1-3 (highest hit rate for WR’s in the draft. Not arbitrary as vaguely suggested)

All players scored under 75 PPR points in their rookie seasons.

~6.4% went on to one or more WR1/WR2 seasons

Meanwhile... ~82% of rookies who scored over 150 points in the same time frame went on to one or more WR1 or WR2 seasons.

I’m not making #### up. You have the reality presented, you do with it what you wish. 

Edited by Iceman03

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

Lol, explain how please. I eliminated the BMI aspect. It was a mass sample from 2000-2019. If you can’t understand that only 5% of the sample went on to WR1 seasons that’s not my problem. If you think you can identify the next players that are in that cohort you are the Warren Buffett of fantasy football, congrats. 

You come across as very rude when someone doesn't agree with part of your arguments, or believe there are other factors at play.

Edited by JohnnyU
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

You come across as very rude when someone doesn't agree with part of your arguments, or believe there are other factors at play.

I come across rude when people don’t explain why they have a problem with what I’m saying. Rather they just vaguely suggest I’m wrong. Of course there is nuance, of course every case is different. 

The best example of this is actually Decker and DT. They went from playing with Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning. That is a case where the information is very much important. 

The whole premise of this thread though is: “Giving up on WR prospects too early is bad”

All I’m saying is: it’s not 95% of the time (for the criteria of <75 points PPR in a rookie season).

Edited by Iceman03

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Iceman03 said:

I come across rude when people don’t explain why they have a problem with what I’m saying. Rather they just vaguely suggest I’m wrong. Of course there is nuance, of course every case is different. 

The best example of this is actually Decker and DT. They went from playing with Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning. That is a case where the information is very much important. 

The whole premise of this thread though is: “Giving up on WR prospects too early is bad”

All I’m saying is: it’s not 95% of the time. 

This is really good info. Perhaps we should give up barring some situational circumstances. Since this is not necessarily obvious, could be able to make some value trades. Does injury factor in here?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, IHEARTFF said:

This is really good info. Perhaps we should give up barring some situational circumstances. Since this is not necessarily obvious, could be able to make some value trades. Does injury factor in here?

As far as rookie seasons go? As far as I can tell no. John Ross is the most recent case of being injured most or all of his rookie year. I’ll run down the list here shortly. A lot of it is going to be off 19 years of memory, though I can filter by starts and games played on Pro Football Reference.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

As far as rookie seasons go? As far as I can tell no. John Ross is the most recent case of being injured most or all of his rookie year. I’ll run down the list here shortly. A lot of it is going to be off 19 years of memory, though I can filter by starts and games played on Pro Football Reference.

Yeah, was just curious if any of the successes were limited by injury as rookies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, IHEARTFF said:

Yeah, was just curious if any of the successes were limited by injury as rookies.

Filtered for </=10 games played and </= 10 games started doesn’t seem to change much at first glance.

These are the players posting zero’s for their rookie year: Earl Bennett, Chris Cole, Robert Ferguson, Derrick Hamilton, Devery Henderson, Juaquin Iglesias, Dexter Jackson, AJ Jenkins, Jerrel Jernigan, Willie Reid, Patrick Turner and John Ross. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

Lol, explain how please. I eliminated the BMI aspect. It was a mass sample from 2000-2019. If you can’t understand that only 5% of the sample went on to WR1 seasons that’s not my problem. If you think you can identify the next players that are in that cohort you are the Warren Buffett of fantasy football, congrats. 

Based on your previous post you are missing players from it for one.

I don't know you keep changing the data without showing the data. If only 5% of the sample reached WR 1 that isn't something I knew but I do find interesting if its true. I know it is very hard for a WR to reach that threshold and the players who do often repeat that several times in their career which is part of why it is so hard for players to achieve that level of performance.

WR also need a certain level of opportunity to have a chance at becoming a top 12 WR. It isn't an accident that a lot of the top performers are also paired with good QB. There are some lower volume guys like Doug Baldwin  has been able to do it when he scored enough TD even though the targets were low.

Of course your sample is omitting players such as Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill, Doug Baldwin and likely a few others who did have very good seasons who were drafted outside of the 1st 3 rounds of the draft. 

Only 12 players can make it, so when several players are hitting the target that you exclude your missing a significant slice of the pie as far as WR being useful for fantasy football.

It would be one thing if you were right and just being rude about this, but you are not even right and the way you are communicating isn't something that I want to listen to because of your attitude, although I have been trying (before I went cross eyed with the BMI comments).

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/31/2020 at 5:59 PM, hispeedthinmint said:

So what is the consensus on N. Harry & JJAW then?

Maybe if you don'y own them they are guys to consider trading for with a pick discounted from where they were drafted last year?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Warhogs said:

Maybe if you don'y own them they are guys to consider trading for with a pick discounted from where they were drafted last year?

 

I would not want JJAW based off of what I did not see when watching him in college and because he couldn't produce when the Eagles needed a WR to do something in the worst way. I thought pff and a lot of other folks really over rated this guy.

Harry is good at football. I would consider adding him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Based on your previous post you are missing players from it for one.

I don't know you keep changing the data without showing the data. If only 5% of the sample reached WR 1 that isn't something I knew but I do find interesting if its true. I know it is very hard for a WR to reach that threshold and the players who do often repeat that several times in their career which is part of why it is so hard for players to achieve that level of performance.

WR also need a certain level of opportunity to have a chance at becoming a top 12 WR. It isn't an accident that a lot of the top performers are also paired with good QB. There are some lower volume guys like Doug Baldwin  has been able to do it when he scored enough TD even though the targets were low.

Of course your sample is omitting players such as Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill, Doug Baldwin and likely a few others who did have very good seasons who were drafted outside of the 1st 3 rounds of the draft. 

Only 12 players can make it, so when several players are hitting the target that you exclude your missing a significant slice of the pie as far as WR being useful for fantasy football.

It would be one thing if you were right and just being rude about this, but you are not even right and the way you are communicating isn't something that I want to listen to because of your attitude, although I have been trying (before I went cross eyed with the BMI comments).

 

I actually agree with you and was going to suggest I follow up with players that passed certain thresholds. I.E. 1200 yds, 1000 yds, 800 yds... Would have to figure out TD’s too. 

However, I will say on a surface level that there seemed to be very little middle ground between consistent being a WR1/WR2 and just being a flat out fall on your face bust.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

I actually agree with you and was going to suggest I follow up with players that passed certain thresholds. I.E. 1200 yds, 1000 yds, 800 yds... Would have to figure out TD’s too. 

However, I will say on a surface level that there seemed to be very little middle ground between consistent being a WR1/WR2 and just being a flat out fall on your face bust.

Its not that easy. There is a lot of nuance I think here. Stats always need some context. Doing this over large samples, I think it is easy to get lost in the weeds a bit.

I appreciate you and others looking into these things. Always fascinating to me.  I have been trying to answer questions like this for about 20 years now and I think I have made some progress but I know I don't have all the answers and there is no silver bullet here.

I was listening to a podcast recently where a guy from player profiler is talking about WR break out age and what he has found out about that. He was using a sample of 2010-2019 which is good I think but likely still not enough. In any case what he found were some signals that indicate WR meeting the threshold of 20% dominator rating (% of teams yards and TD) by age 18, that 56% of those players in his sample size became top 24 WR. That is a great hit rate I think but even he is just calling it a signal, not making broad reaching proclamations about it. I do think there is a risk of survivorship bias in this type of analysis and there are holes in it such as players being injured early on in their careers or in some cases like Larry Fitzgerald he went to a junior college his first year out of high school and so on. There were very good players from the break out 20 age like AJ Green and not much coming from players who broke out at an older age than this.

I think all of this information is worth considering. No single data point is going to be the sum of my conclusions.

I think you need a sample that is long enough to cover the WR entire career. Some of them play for a long time. So 20 years most likely. The WR 2 target may be a better one than WR 1's for these types of analysis as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Its not that easy. There is a lot of nuance I think here. Stats always need some context. Doing this over large samples, I think it is easy to get lost in the weeds a bit.

I appreciate you and others looking into these things. Always fascinating to me.  I have been trying to answer questions like this for about 20 years now and I think I have made some progress but I know I don't have all the answers and there is no silver bullet here.

I was listening to a podcast recently where a guy from player profiler is talking about WR break out age and what he has found out about that. He was using a sample of 2010-2019 which is good I think but likely still not enough. In any case what he found were some signals that indicate WR meeting the threshold of 20% dominator rating (% of teams yards and TD) by age 18, that 56% of those players in his sample size became top 24 WR. That is a great hit rate I think but even he is just calling it a signal, not making broad reaching proclamations about it. I do think there is a risk of survivorship bias in this type of analysis and there are holes in it such as players being injured early on in their careers or in some cases like Larry Fitzgerald he went to a junior college his first year out of high school and so on. There were very good players from the break out 20 age like AJ Green and not much coming from players who broke out at an older age than this.

I think all of this information is worth considering. No single data point is going to be the sum of my conclusions.

I think you need a sample that is long enough to cover the WR entire career. Some of them play for a long time. So 20 years most likely. The WR 2 target may be a better one than WR 1's for these types of analysis as well.

Hmm. I won’t continue to take us round and round. I think Fitz is a bad example for what you’re suggesting. He was dominate in his first season at Pitt and despite being a transfer had a 19 y/o BO age. He matches all the metrics I would look at currently in evaluating rookies, including speed score and draft capital. You’re right in saying there is nothing guaranteed.

I suppose that’s my ultimate point though. As a community we’re very stubborn in our rookie processes whether that be film or analytics. I’m actually taking shots at the analytics community for hard-lining Harry as a tried and true blue chip who just had a tough rookie year. Most often that seems to not be the case but we can’t come off of it. Some were suggesting a low ‘19 first is a low ball for Harry but I think I would take that and run. Most likely he’s playing with a 43 year old QB this year and a rookie or washed up vet in 2021. Could he be DT or Vincent Jackson? Sure. Could the Pats easily bring in Amari Cooper, AJ Green and Greg Olsen? Also a possibility. That’s why I think understanding that there exists more Jon Baldwin’s than DT’s of the world is very important for the evaluation of year two guys.  

At the same time people are heavily questioning whether McLaurin and Diontae Johnson are the real deal. While there are no guarantees in any sport no player drafted in the 3rd round that matched what they did has busted beyond their rookie year and all have posted multiple WR1 or WR2 seasons (small sample here, we’re talking six players since 2000). Just this knowledge alone makes me more comfortable with those two players over a guy like Harry even though my own predraft process had Harry as the top WR. I think that is how I am suggesting this information be used.

Edited by Iceman03

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Marquise Brown will be an interesting case for me. I had him ranked far lower than consensus due to his size, his late production due to being a transfer and injuries in the predraft process. He’s clearly a boom type player but the assessment that he can’t stay healthy due to being excessively small rang true year one. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

Hmm. I won’t continue to take us round and round. I think Fitz is a bad example for what you’re suggesting. He was dominate in his first season at Pitt and despite being a transfer had a 19 y/o BO age. He matches all the metrics I would look at currently in evaluating rookies, including speed score and draft capital. You’re right in saying there is nothing guaranteed.

The point isn't that Fizgerald was a bad prospect, he is the chosen one, just that his and other players break out ages can be affected by incidental things like this and that becomes more prevalent the larger sample size you use. The other guy on the podcast had been involved with recruiting Fitzgerald so he just remembered that bit. It is something that could be affecting a lot of players break out age over a 20 year sample and most of us wont be able to remember all of them if we knew in the first place.

2 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

I suppose that’s my ultimate point though. As a community we’re very stubborn in our rookie processes whether that be film or analytics. I’m actually taking shots at the analytics community for hard-lining Harry as a tried and true blue chip who just had a tough rookie year. Most often that seems to not be the case but we can’t come off of it. Some were suggesting a low ‘19 first is a low ball for Harry but I think I would take that and run. Most likely he’s playing with a 43 year old QB this year and a rookie or washed up vet in 2021. Could he be DT or Vincent Jackson? Sure. Could the Pats easily bring in Amari Cooper, AJ Green and Greg Olsen? Also a possibility. That’s why I think understanding that there exists more Jon Baldwin’s than DT’s of the world is very important for the evaluation of year two guys.  

I like Harry from what I have seen of him playing in college. I think he has a good skill set and he should be a successful WR in the NFL. He had the draft capital and perhaps some thought his situation was favorable (I didn't because of a lot of history against that) because of Tom Brady.

Well he got injured so we didn't get to see him much because of that. The Patriots also notoriously slow in letting rookie WR play for them. 

So as a top 5 rookie player yes I think he may have been over valued. A price of pick 11 or so now seems more reasonable. If I had Harry I would just hang on to him and see what happens. I don't really want to throw rookie picks at him right now as I think the value of the picks will increase over the next few months with a spike around the combine then also leading into the NFL draft as times where I might be able to get a lot for picks like that.

I would certainly look to add Harry if the price were lower than that, like in a package deal.

2 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

At the same time people are heavily questioning whether McLaurin and Diontae Johnson are the real deal. While there are no guarantees in any sport no player drafted in the 3rd round that matched what they did has busted beyond their rookie year and all have posted multiple WR1 or WR2 seasons (small sample here, we’re talking six players since 2000). Just this knowledge alone makes me more comfortable with those two players over a guy like Harry even though my own predraft process had Harry as the top WR. I think that is how I am suggesting this information be used.

I agree that the WR who are able to perform right away as rookies tend to continue to perform and have good careers. I am sure there are a few rookie wonders who later busted, but none off the top of my head.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/3/2020 at 2:33 PM, tangfoot said:

Hanging on to Parker would have been a colossal mistake and misuse of draft capital.  The right move with Corey Davis is to cut bait and get whatever you can for him.  If he produces a season like Parker did this past year even once in his career, it still doesn't make it the right move to have held on to him. 

this

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Do you feel that Jeudy and Lamb may have an equal chance at injury troubles due to their similar build as Brown? 

Yes. Given what I’ve looked at over the past decade I believe BMI to be both an indicator of potential durability but also a potential cap for WR1 type of seasons. These WR’s will be first rounders though which muddies the waters as far as I’m concerned. They’ll be given every opportunity to succeed and have both produced at young ages to suggest they could do so.

I made a mistake discounting round 1 last year in my draft rankings and thinking early round 4 can be treated the same as round 3. It sounds petty but in the process of probabilities these cut offs are important. Round 1 is going to be given a lot of opportunity to succeed.  While DeVante Parker is an outlier for his breakout, it came with the Dolphins continuing to give him chances other players would never get. 

For recent history though here are the WR’s that produced with lower BMI’s:

WR’s in the last six seasons to produce a top 12 season with <26 BMI:

Thielen x2 25.7

Diggs 25.9

AJ Green x2 25.6

Manny Sanders 25.1

WR’s with 20+ Point Per Game seasons since 2000 w/ BMI <26:

Marvin Harrison x3 25.1

Randy Moss x2 25.6

If we’re talking JUST highest end production, it seems to be somewhat of a barrier to get there. I’m actually hoping Jeudy and Lamb are shorter than listed and get above 25.6... would make me a lot more comfortable ranking them toward the very top. Jeudy’s MS of Rec Yds his sophomore is actually very impressive given the backdrop of SEC, multiple NFL caliber players around him and being 19 y/o. I won’t be dismissing him off of this years dominator rating.

ETA: Jeudy’s sophomore year lines up almost identically to Emmanuel Sanders percentage wise. I think that would be my comp/ceiling for him. /end hijack

Edited by Iceman03

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the biggest problems we are all running into is the amount of variables...

- Does the QB and/or staff prefer to utilize older veteran WR's?  Brady/BB come to mind.  They use other NFL teams as their farm team for WR's.  Fun fact - Brady has not produced a WR1, WR2, WR3, WR4, or WR5 in their first 3 seasons in the last 15 years.  During that span, 22 teams produced at least a WR1, 6 teams produced at least a WR2, and the remaining 3 teams produced at least a WR3.  Even if Brady leaves and BB stays, you can expect NE to be hunting for veteran WR's.  It's been BB's MO for 20 years.  Even the immortal Julian Edelman managed only 714 receiving yards total in his first 4 seasons before busting out in his 5th.  Doesn't really inspire confidence in the short term outlooks for N'Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, does it?

- WR's have no control over who their QB is.  As @Iceman03 pointed out, Eric Decker & Demaryius Thomas went from a combined 1163/12 to 2498/23 from 2011 to 2012.  Both were WR1's with Peyton as their QB.  That tends to happen when a Tebow/Orton combo can only throw for 2700 yards and 20 TD's in a season.  Terry McLaurin's rookie season looks alot more impressive when you see the combined stats for Keenum, Haskins, and McCoy.  

- Some teams have stud TE's or RB's that get tons of targets.  If the WR targets just aren't there, there's not much the WR can do about it.  Lamar had a grand total of 182 WR targets last year.  Michael Thomas had more than that by himself.  23 other teams had at least 100 more WR targets.  Makes you think that Marquise Brown is gonna be pretty TD dependent for the next few years, huh?

- Talent of other WR's on the team.  Some teams have veteran WR's with alot left in the tank, and others have bubkiss.  Luckily for a guy like Calvin Ridley, Matt Ryan throws enough to support multiple players, so Julio Jones isn't a hindrance.  AJ Brown became TEN's WR1 the minute he stepped onto the field.  Mecole Hardman was drafted only 5 picks after AJ Brown, but he is buried behind Hill & Watkins (not to mention Kelce).  He has no chance of keeping up with AJ in the short term.

- Do we use end of year data, or PPG?  Some young WR's have to work their way into the starting lineup, and others are thrust into it from day one.  Some get injured and miss games, while others stay healthy.  If your data is skewed, this area is the most likely cause.  Here are some examples:
  - Marquise Brown started the year with 39 targets in his first 5 games (7.8 average).  After missing 2 games, he finished the year with only 32 more targets in 9 games (3.6 average).  Was his drop in targets due to his injury, or just the BAL game plan?  We will never truly know.  He was WR20 thru 5 games, and was WR53 in his last 9.  The only thing we do know is that a healthy Brown is BAL's unquestioned WR1.
  - Darius Slayton's season is incredibly hard to dissect.  He didn't even see the field until week 3, and finished WR37 in 14 games.  But his targets were all over the place.  In fact, he had less targets than both Tate & Shepard, and they only played 11 & 10 games respectively.  Slayton led all NYG WR's in FP, Tate in PPG, and Shepard in targets per game.  So, who will Danny Dimes be looking for in 2020?
  - ARI took 3 WR's in last year's draft (Isabella (2), Butler (4), and Johnson(6)).  Isabella is small, but a burner.  He was sparsely used, and only managed 9 catches.  Butler is a monster at 6'5", but was on IR before the season began.   Johnson saw the most action, but when your YPC is under 9, your catch % can't be a dismal 50%.  Sprinkle in a few more young WR's (Cooper & Byrd), and it's anyone's guess if any of these guys can carve out a role behind Fitz + Kirk. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/1/2020 at 5:02 PM, TheWinz said:

Continuing my post from page 1, here are how the 3rd & 4th overall WR's drafted each of the last 40 years have done, as far as breaking into the top 12:

3rd overall
1st season - Odell Beckham, Cris Collinsworth
2nd season - Ernest Givins, Jerry Rice
3rd season - Javon Walker
4th season - Jordy Nelson, Dwayne Bowe, Michael Irvin
5th season - Devante Parker, Jimmy Smith
6th season - Jeremy Maclin

4th overall
1st season - Louis Lipps
2nd season - Greg Jennings, Anthony Miller, Webster Slaughter, Mike Quick, Kevin House
3rd season - Brandin Cooks, Percy Harvin, Lee Evans, Santana Moss, Derrick Alexander
4th season - Marvin Harrison, Ricky Proehl
5th season - Golden Tate

So, of the top 4 WR's drafted each of the last 40 years, 60 had at least one WR1 season.  Of the 160 WR's, that's a rate of 37.5% (and I will say this sample size is more than enough).  Of course, I am not claiming you must have at least one WR1 season to not be a bust, but I think it's relative as to where you were drafted.  If you were the overall #1 in a given year and never have a WR1 season, I would consider you a relative bust.  On the other hand, if you were the 10th WR taken and have a handful of WR2 seasons but never reach WR1 status, you were a relative hit.  Also, if you compare all the WR's I've listed, you will see being selected 1st or 2nd overall has a much better "hit rate" than being selected 3rd or 4th, to the tune of 43.75% to 31.25%.

IMO, instead of looking at first, second, third, etc WR drafted and comparing those (as the talent pool can differ so much between years), I think it would be much more telling to compare where the players were drafted as groups instead (1st round WRs, 2nd round WRs and so on). 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, doowain said:

IMO, instead of looking at first, second, third, etc WR drafted and comparing those (as the talent pool can differ so much between years), I think it would be much more telling to compare where the players were drafted as groups instead (1st round WRs, 2nd round WRs and so on). 

I can do that too.  FWIW, I find it interesting that 38% of all WR's drafted in the first 4 spots, regardless of round, have reached WR1 status at least once (and many more for some) in their careers.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I can do that too.  FWIW, I find it interesting that 38% of all WR's drafted in the first 4 spots, regardless of round, have reached WR1 status at least once (and many more for some) in their careers.

That's a gosh darn depressing hit rate.  It seems to reinforce the theory that you should take RBs at the top of your rookie draft, and then trade them for WRs who have already begun to break out.

ETA: who the hell turned on a replace script for "gdam", lol

Edited by tangfoot

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

- Does the QB and/or staff prefer to utilize older veteran WR's?  Brady/BB come to mind.  They use other NFL teams as their farm team for WR's.  Fun fact - Brady has not produced a WR1, WR2, WR3, WR4, or WR5 in their first 3 seasons in the last 15 years.  During that span, 22 teams produced at least a WR1, 6 teams produced at least a WR2, and the remaining 3 teams produced at least a WR3.  Even if Brady leaves and BB stays, you can expect NE to be hunting for veteran WR's.  It's been BB's MO for 20 years.  Even the immortal Julian Edelman managed only 714 receiving yards total in his first 4 seasons before busting out in his 5th.  Doesn't really inspire confidence in the short term outlooks for N'Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers, does it?

I think this has more to do with their receivers than Brady/Belichick. Other than Edelman, the best WR that the Patriots have drafted over that time period is... Brandon Tate? He's the only one over 1000 career receiving yards. If you include the whole Brady period rather than just 15 years then there's also Deion Branch, who was a WR5 as a rookie and a WR3 in his second season. Also David Givens, who was a WR4 his second season. And I don't see why we'd just limit it to TEs. Gronk & Hernandez were borderline starters as rookies and studs in their second season. Ben Watson was on IR his rookie year and was a borderline starter his second season. Daniel Graham was a borderline starter his second season. I don't think the NE offense is easier to pick up for young TEs than for young WRs, it's just that they've had some good young TEs but not good young WRs.

Other than Edelman, every WR or TE that the Patriots have drafted since 2001 has emerged by his 2nd season (or not at all). And Edelman was kind of an unusual case: a college QB transitioning to WR, drafted in the 7th round, primarily playing a specific role which was filled at the time by Wes Welker.

A second year breakout has been most common among Patriots WR/TEs, although the good ones (and some not-so-good ones) have often done something as rookies. Just looking at rookie seasons, N'Keal Harry's 105 receiving yards are the 16th most for a NE rookie since 2001, with 6 rookies topping 400 yards (Hernandez, Gronk, Aaron Dobson, Branch, Kenbrell Thompkins, Malcolm Mitchell).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/5/2020 at 3:48 PM, doowain said:

IMO, instead of looking at first, second, third, etc WR drafted and comparing those (as the talent pool can differ so much between years), I think it would be much more telling to compare where the players were drafted as groups instead (1st round WRs, 2nd round WRs and so on). 

- WARNING - LONG POST -

There is a huge difference between being drafted at the top of a round versus the bottom, especially in the early rounds.  A WR drafted 1.32 is a closer comparison to 2.1 than 1.1.  Therefore, I decided to break it down in groups of 8.  I chose 8 because it basically breaks each round into 4 sections.  So far, I have went back to Larry Fitzgerald's rookie season (2004).  In that time, 507 WR's have been selected through the normal draft, 1 through a supplemental draft (Josh Gordon - 2012), and about 1000 more were undrafted free agents.  I plan on going back 30 years, as that will give a sample size of around 1000 WR's (not counting undrafted free agents).  A few things to keep in mind about the data:

1) Any active WR still has a chance to have a usable fantasy season if they haven't already
2) Any active WR with a WR2 or WR3 season can still improve to WR1 or WR2
3) Only WR1 data from 2014 - 2019 is complete, as players starting their careers prior to 2004 were still finishing top 12 (i.e. Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, etc.)
4) I used the FBG stats section (PPR scoring), and used all 17 weeks in determining results (yes, I know fantasy is rarely played week 17)
5) When I get to year 2001, I will switch to using the Pro Football Reference website for stats, because FBG is incomplete before 2002

I have only completed the WR1 (1-12) portion, and will continue with WR2 (13-24) and WR3 (25-36) later.  For now, here are the WR1 stats, based on draft spot:

1-8 - 8 of 16 (50%) Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams
9-16 - 4 of 11 (36%) DeVante Parker, Odell Beckham, Michael Crabtree, Lee Evans
17-24 - 6 of 14 (43%) Brandin Cooks, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe
25-32 - 3 of 19 (16%) DeAndre Hopkins, Hakeem Nicks, Roddy White
33-40 - 1 of 18 (6%) Jordy Nelson
41-48 - 4 of 16 (25%) Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, Alshon Jeffery, Sidney Rice
49-56 - 4 of 16 (25%) Davante Adams, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (the Giants guy, not the Panthers one), Greg Jennings
57-64 - 5 of 20 (25%) Juju Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Randall Cobb, Golden Tate
65-72 - 1 of 10 (10%) Cooper Kupp
73-80 - 1 of 21 (5%) Keenan Allen
81-88 - 4 of 25 (16%) Chris Godwin, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Mike Wallace
89-96 - 2 of 16 (13%) Kenny Golladay, T.Y. Hilton
97-104 - 0 of 16 (0%)
105-112 - 0 of 22 (0%)
113-120 - 1 of 17 (6%) Brandon Marshall
121-128 - 0 of 17 (0%)
129-136 - 0 of 12 (0%)
137-144 - 0 of 13 (0%)
145-152 - 1 of 8 (13%) Stefon Diggs
153-160 - 0 of 13 (0%)
161-168 - 2 of 14 (14%) Tyreek Hill, Marvin Jones
169-176 - 0 of 24 (0%)
177-184 - 0 of 10 (0%)
185-192 - 0 of 19 (0%)
193-200 - 1 of 15 (7%) Antonio Brown
201-208 - 1 of 13 (8%) Pierre Garcon
209-216 - 0 of 11 (0%)
217-224 - 1 of 13 (8%) Steve Johnson
225-232 - 1 of 16 (6%) Julian Edelman
233-240 - 0 of 25 (0%)
241-248 - 0 of 12 (0%)
249-256 - 1 of 15 (7%) Marques Colston

Also, since 2004, UFA's Adam Thielen, Doug Baldwin, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, and Wes Welker have become WR1's, along with Josh Gordon.  Remember, even though 5 UFA's reaching WR1 status sounds like alot, that is from a pool of about 1000 (half of 1%).  WR's selected after pick # 96 (typically around 3 rounds) only have a 3% WR1 rate.  Others of note are late round picks Darren Waller & Delanie Walker, both of whom finished TE1's., but were drafted as WR's.

As many have said, numbers don't always tell the whole story.  Take Vincent Jackson for example.  He finished WR19, WR13, WR13, WR13, and WR16 from 2008 thru 2014, but will only show as a WR2 max.  He was clearly a better dynasty WR than many others who reached WR1 status.  So many variables, but if we make the sample size big enough, perhaps we can begin to start trusting the data a bit.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great stuff @TheWinz I like the consistency of going by 8 picks. That being said it seems to all go down hill after pick 100. Maybe it would be safe to lump by round or by “beyond pick 100 (97)” and “UDFA”? Just tossing out an idea.

Looks to me as 2.95% or 3% high level success rate (WR1) beyond pick 100 which is why I am attempting to place a higher emphasis on draft capital (which I essentially believe to be the combination of scouting and analytics).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Iceman03 said:

Great stuff @TheWinz I like the consistency of going by 8 picks. That being said it seems to all go down hill after pick 100. Maybe it would be safe to lump by round or by “beyond pick 100 (97)” and “UDFA”? Just tossing out an idea.

Looks to me as 2.95% or 3% high level success rate (WR1) beyond pick 100 which is why I am attempting to place a higher emphasis on draft capital (which I essentially believe to be the combination of scouting and analytics).

8 picks seems to work pretty good.  As for lumping after 96, I just finished inputting all the names into the spreadsheet.  Took all night and about 11 beers.  May as well just keep them in groups of 8, but when I post the results, I will lump them in groups of 32, starting with 97 thru 128.  I don't think it will give a false impression.  In the early 90's there were more draft rounds, so I did lump all players after pick 256.

As I said, I will use FBG's stats section going back to 2002, because it is very accurate for PPR.  When I switch to Pro Football Reference, the rankings will get a little jacked up, because their fantasy rankings are not true PPR, but I'm not gonna get my panties in a twist over it.  A WR may go from WR1 to WR2 and vice versa, but overall, the data will still tell a pretty accurate picture.

WR1 is complete for the all WR's drafted 1990 and later.  Here goes...

1-8 - 16 of 30 (53%) Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Torry Holt, David Boston, Keyshawn Johnson, Michael Westbrook, Joey Galloway, Curtis Conway
9-16 - 6 of 25 (24%) DeVante Parker, Odell Beckham, Michael Crabtree, Lee Evans, Santana Moss, Herman Moore
17-24 - 10 of 26 (38%) Brandin Cooks, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe, Javon Walker, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds
25-32 - 6 of 34 (18%) DeAndre Hopkins, Hakeem Nicks, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Derrick Alexander, Carl Pickens
33-40 - 5 of 29 (17%) Jordy Nelson, Chad Johnson, Amani Toomer, Isaac Bruce, Jimmy Smith
41-48 - 5 of 36 (14%) Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, Alshon Jeffery, Sidney Rice, Muhsin Muhammed
49-56 - 9 of 31 (29%) Davante Adams, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (the Giants guy, not the Panthers one), Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, Chris Chambers, Peerless Price, Germane Crowell, Bobby Engram
57-64 - 8 of 32 (25%) Juju Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Randall Cobb, Golden Tate, Antonio Bryant, Robert Brooks, Ricky Proehl
65-72 - 2 of 26 (8%) Cooper Kupp, Jake Reed
73-80 - 5 of 38 (13%) Keenan Allen, Steve Smith (the Panther), Laveranues Coles, Marty Booker, Fred Barnett
81-88 - 5 of 35 (14%) Chris Godwin, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Mike Wallace, Ed McCaffrey
89-96 - 6 of 30 (20%) Kenny Golladay, T.Y. Hilton, Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Antonio Freeman, Yancey Thigpen
97-128 - 4 of 117 (3%) Derrick Mason, Marcus Robinson, Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd
129-160 - 6 of 103 (6%) Joe Horn, Calvin Williams, Michael Jackson, Terance Mathis, Stefon Diggs, Patrick Jeffers
161-192 - 2 of 124 (2%) Tyreek Hill, Marvin Jones
193-224 - 5 of 114 (4%) Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Donald Driver, Steve Johnson
225-256 - 2 of 123 (2%) Julian Edelman, Marques Colston
256-end - 1 of 38 (3%) Keenan McCardell
UFA's - 8 total - Adam Thielen, Doug Baldwin, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, Wes Welker, Drew Bennett, Rod Smith, Willie Davis
Supplemental - 2 - Josh Gordon, Rob Moore

83 of 372 WR's selected from 1 thru 96 reached WR1 status (22%)
20 of 619 WR's selected after pick # 96 reached WR1 status (3%)

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Just completed WR2's.  I think it will paint a clearer picture if I combine them with the WR1's as well.  Those making it to WR2 max are in bold.

1-8 - 20 of 30 (67%) Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Torry Holt, David Boston, Keyshawn Johnson, Michael Westbrook, Joey Galloway, Curtis Conway, Sammy Watkins, Peter Warrick, Ike Hilliard, Terry Glenn
9-16 - 13 of 25 (52%) DeVante Parker, Odell Beckham, Michael Crabtree, Lee Evans, Santana Moss, Herman Moore, Michael Clayton, Donte Stallworth, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Sean Dawkins, Alvin Harper, Mike Pritchard
17-24 - 16 of 26 (62%) Brandin Cooks, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe, Javon Walker, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds, DJ Moore, Nelson Agholor, Kendall Wright, Eddie Kennison, Johnnie Morton, Randal Hill
25-32 - 12 of 34 (35%) DeAndre Hopkins, Hakeem Nicks, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Derrick Alexander, Carl Pickens, Calvin Ridley, Kelvin Benjamin, Santonio Holmes, Kevin Johnson, Darnay Scott, OJ McDuffie
33-40 - 7 of 29 (24%) Jordy Nelson, Chad Johnson, Amani Toomer, Isaac Bruce, Jimmy Smith, Courtland Sutton, Quincy Morgan
41-48 - 13 of 36 (36%) Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, Alshon Jeffery, Sidney Rice, Muhsin Muhammed, Devin Funchess, Jordan Matthews, Eddie Royal, Jerry Porter, Frank Sanders, Bert Emanuel, Courtney Hawkins, Jeff Graham
49-56 - 14 of 31 (45%) Davante Adams, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (the Giants guy, not the Panthers one), Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, Chris Chambers, Peerless Price, Germane Crowell, Bobby Engram, AJ Brown, Tyler Boyd, Derrick Mayes, Qadry Ismail, Vincent Brisby
57-64 - 11 of 32 (34%) Juju Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Randall Cobb, Golden Tate, Antonio Bryant, Robert Brooks, Ricky Proehl, DJ Chark, Torrey Smith, Vincent Jackson
65-72 - 6 of 26 (23%) Cooper Kupp, Jake Reed, Tyler Lockett, Nate Burleson, Deion Branch, Chris Sanders
73-80 - 11 of 38 (29%) Keenan Allen, Steve Smith (the Panther), Laveranues Coles, Marty Booker, Fred Barnett, Brandon LaFell, Laurent Robinson, James Jones, Mike Walker, Kevin Curtis, Darrell Jackson
81-88 - 7 of 35 (20%) Chris Godwin, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Mike Wallace, Ed McCaffrey, Michael Gallup, Harry Douglas
89-96 - 8 of 30 (27%) Kenny Golladay, T.Y. Hilton, Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Antonio Freeman, Yancey Thigpen, John Brown, Mario Manningham
97-128 - 12 of 117 (10%) Derrick Mason, Marcus Robinson, Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd, Mike Williams, Raghib Ismail, Chris Calloway, Brian Hartline, Jerricho Cotchery, Shaun McDonald, Brandon Stokley, Albert Connell
129-160 - 6 of 103 (6%) Joe Horn, Calvin Williams, Michael Jackson, Terance Mathis, Stefon Diggs, Patrick Jeffers, no WR2's in this group
161-192 - 3 of 124 (2%) Tyreek Hill, Marvin Jones, Bill Schroeder
193-224 - 6 of 114 (5%) Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Donald Driver, Steve Johnson, Troy Brown
225-256 - 4 of 123 (3%) Julian Edelman, Marques Colston, Rishard Matthews, Kevin Walter
257-end - 1 of 38 (3%) Keenan McCardell, no WR2's in this group
UFA's - 20 total - Adam Thielen, Doug Baldwin, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, Wes Welker, Drew Bennett, Rod Smith, Willie Davis, Robby Anderson, Adam Humphries, Tyrell Williams, Allen Hurns, Lance Moore, Nate Washington, Davone Bess, Mike Furrey, James Thrash, Wayne Chrebet, Leslie Shepherd, James Jett
Supplemental - 3 - Josh Gordon, Rob Moore, Terrelle Pryor

138 of 372 WR's selected from 1 thru 96 reached WR1/WR2 status (37%)
32 of 619 WR's selected after pick # 96 reached WR1/WR2 status (5%)
Compare these numbers to the post above, and you will see the top 96 drafted are pulling ahead by a wide margin

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Love the numbers Winz. Great job

quick look to me says most #1s had more than one top 24 season but a lot of the #2s did not repeat again

maybe taking this out to doing 2 times, 3 or 4 would be great. To invest a top pick in rookie draft you want more than 1 top 24 season. Hoping for multiple. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/31/2020 at 8:41 AM, sheerterror said:

Devante Parker [ex] owners should be checking in shortly.

Not sure the "5th Year WR Break-out" will prove to be a viable strategy.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just completed WR3's (in bold).  WR2's in RED

1-8 - 26 of 30 (87%) Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Torry Holt, David Boston, Keyshawn Johnson, Michael Westbrook, Joey Galloway, Curtis Conway, Sammy Watkins, Peter Warrick, Ike Hilliard, Terry Glenn, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Tavon Austin, Justin Blackmon, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Desmond Howard

9-16 - 20 of 25 (80%) DeVante Parker, Odell Beckham, Michael Crabtree, Lee Evans, Santana Moss, Herman Moore, Michael Clayton, Donte Stallworth, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Sean Dawkins, Alvin Harper, Mike Pritchard, Michael Floyd, Ted Ginn, Reggie Williams, Travis Taylor, Kevin Dyson, Reidel Anthony, JJ Stokes

17-24 - 19 of 26 (73%) Brandin Cooks, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe, Javon Walker, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds, DJ Moore, Nelson Agholor, Kendall Wright, Eddie Kennison, Johnnie Morton, Randal Hill, Mark Clayton, Ashley Lelie, Charles Johnson

25-32 - 14 of 34 (41%) DeAndre Hopkins, Hakeem Nicks, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Derrick Alexander, Carl Pickens, Calvin Ridley, Kelvin Benjamin, Santonio Holmes, Kevin Johnson, Darnay Scott, OJ McDuffie, Kenny Britt, Robert Meachem

33-40 - 14 of 29 (48%) Jordy Nelson, Chad Johnson, Amani Toomer, Isaac Bruce, Jimmy Smith, Courtland Sutton, Quincy Morgan, Deebo Samuel, Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel, Sterling Shepard, Reggie Brown, Jabar Gaffney, Todd Pinkston

41-48 - 14 of 36 (39%) Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, Alshon Jeffery, Sidney Rice, Muhsin Muhammed, Devin Funchess, Jordan Matthews, Eddie Royal, Jerry Porter, Frank Sanders, Bert Emanuel, Courtney Hawkins, Jeff Graham, Reche Caldwell

49-56 - 15 of 31 (48%) Davante Adams, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (the Giants guy, not the Panthers one), Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, Chris Chambers, Peerless Price, Germane Crowell, Bobby Engram, AJ Brown, Tyler Boyd, Derrick Mayes, Qadry Ismail, Vincent Brisby, Joe Jurevicius

57-64 - 13 of 32 (41%) Juju Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Randall Cobb, Golden Tate, Antonio Bryant, Robert Brooks, Ricky Proehl, DJ Chark, Torrey Smith, Vincent Jackson, DK Metcalf, Rueben Randle

65-72 - 7 of 26 (27%) Cooper Kupp, Jake Reed, Tyler Lockett, Nate Burleson, Deion Branch, Chris Sanders, Lawrence Dawsey

73-80 - 17 of 38 (45%) Keenan Allen, Steve Smith (the Panther), Laveranues Coles, Marty Booker, Fred Barnett, Brandon LaFell, Laurent Robinson, James Jones, Mike Walker, Kevin Curtis, Darrell Jackson, Terry McLaurin, Marquise Goodwin, Bernard Berrian, Chris Jones, Andre Hastings, Ernie Mills

81-88 - 9 of 35 (26%) Chris Godwin, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Mike Wallace, Ed McCaffrey, Michael Gallup, Harry Douglas, Mohamed Sanu, Andre Roberts

89-96 - 9 of 30 (30%) Kenny Golladay, T.Y. Hilton, Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Antonio Freeman, Yancey Thigpen, John Brown, Mario Manningham, Az Hakim

97-128 - 23 of 117 (20%) Derrick Mason, Marcus Robinson, Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd, Mike Williams, Raghib Ismail, Chris Calloway, Brian Hartline, Jerricho Cotchery, Shaun McDonald, Brandon Stokley, Albert Connell, Travis Benjamin, Dede Westbrook, Jamison Crowder, Mike Thomas, Donald Hayes, Willie Jackson, Cecil Shorts, Tim Dwight, Keith Poole, Austin Collie, Justin McCareins

129-160 - 13 of 103 (13%) Joe Horn, Calvin Williams, Michael Jackson, Terance Mathis, Stefon Diggs, Patrick Jeffers, no WR2's in this group, Charles Wilson, Kenny Stills, Johnny Knox, Steve Breaston, Torrance Small, Riley Cooper, Jermaine Lewis

161-192 - 4 of 124 (3%) Tyreek Hill, Marvin Jones, Bill Schroeder, Tai Streets

193-224 - 8 of 114 (7%) Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Donald Driver, Steve Johnson, Troy Brown, Willie Green, Patrick Crayton

225-256 - 5 of 123 (4%) Julian Edelman, Marques Colston, Rishard Matthews, Kevin Walter, David Givens

257-end - 1 of 38 (3%) Keenan McCardell, no WR2's in this group, no WR3's in this group

UFA's - 32 total - Adam Thielen, Doug Baldwin, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, Wes Welker, Drew Bennett, Rod Smith, Willie Davis, Robby Anderson, Adam Humphries, Tyrell Williams, Allen Hurns, Lance Moore, Nate Washington, Davone Bess, Mike Furrey, James Thrash, Wayne Chrebet, Leslie Shepherd, James Jett, Willie Snead, Cole Beasley, Jermaine Kearse, Kamar Aiken, Rod Streater, Malcom Floyd, Danny Amendola, David Patten, Brian Finneran, James McKnight, Oronde Gadsden, Mark Seay

Supplemental - 3 - Josh Gordon, Rob Moore, Terrelle Pryor, no WR3's in this group

177 of 372 WR's selected from 1 thru 96 reached WR1/WR2/WR3 status (48%)
54 of 619 WR's selected after pick # 96 reached WR1/WR2/WR3 status (9%)

30 years x 36 WR spots = 1080 top 36 finishes.  Of those 1080 spots, they are taken by only 266 WR's.  Keep in mind, in the early 90's, most spots were taken by players drafted before 1990.  As @Crippler pointed out, this is because guys like Larry Fitzgerald have taken up 13 spots by himself.  Also, I noticed a big drop in hit rate after draft pick 24.  I will dig into number of top 36 finishes based on draft spot.  I have to assume the earlier you are drafted, the longer and better your career will be, but let's see how the data plays out.
 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great stuff Wiz!

I have meant to go through the WR careers as you are but I got hung up on the fact that target data only goes back to 1992 so that seems like a natural cut off point. I do think the target data creates some useful efficiency metrics like catch rate and yards per target.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Great stuff Wiz!

I have meant to go through the WR careers as you are but I got hung up on the fact that target data only goes back to 1992 so that seems like a natural cut off point. I do think the target data creates some useful efficiency metrics like catch rate and yards per target.

If you had to name the single most important category as an indicator for long term WR success, what would it be?  Number of targets, target share, catch %, TD's, QB play, yards per target, yards per catch, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.