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JohnnyU

Giving up on WR prospects too early is bad

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Love the numbers Winz. Great job

quick look to me says most #1s had more than one top 24 season but a lot of the #2s did not repeat again

maybe taking this out to doing 2 times, 3 or 4 would be great. To invest a top pick in rookie draft you want more than 1 top 24 season. Hoping for multiple. 

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On 1/31/2020 at 8:41 AM, sheerterror said:

Devante Parker [ex] owners should be checking in shortly.

Not sure the "5th Year WR Break-out" will prove to be a viable strategy.

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Just completed WR3's (in bold).  WR2's in RED

1-8 - 26 of 30 (87%) Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Torry Holt, David Boston, Keyshawn Johnson, Michael Westbrook, Joey Galloway, Curtis Conway, Sammy Watkins, Peter Warrick, Ike Hilliard, Terry Glenn, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Tavon Austin, Justin Blackmon, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Desmond Howard

9-16 - 20 of 25 (80%) DeVante Parker, Odell Beckham, Michael Crabtree, Lee Evans, Santana Moss, Herman Moore, Michael Clayton, Donte Stallworth, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Sean Dawkins, Alvin Harper, Mike Pritchard, Michael Floyd, Ted Ginn, Reggie Williams, Travis Taylor, Kevin Dyson, Reidel Anthony, JJ Stokes

17-24 - 19 of 26 (73%) Brandin Cooks, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe, Javon Walker, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds, DJ Moore, Nelson Agholor, Kendall Wright, Eddie Kennison, Johnnie Morton, Randal Hill, Mark Clayton, Ashley Lelie, Charles Johnson

25-32 - 14 of 34 (41%) DeAndre Hopkins, Hakeem Nicks, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Derrick Alexander, Carl Pickens, Calvin Ridley, Kelvin Benjamin, Santonio Holmes, Kevin Johnson, Darnay Scott, OJ McDuffie, Kenny Britt, Robert Meachem

33-40 - 14 of 29 (48%) Jordy Nelson, Chad Johnson, Amani Toomer, Isaac Bruce, Jimmy Smith, Courtland Sutton, Quincy Morgan, Deebo Samuel, Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel, Sterling Shepard, Reggie Brown, Jabar Gaffney, Todd Pinkston

41-48 - 14 of 36 (39%) Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, Alshon Jeffery, Sidney Rice, Muhsin Muhammed, Devin Funchess, Jordan Matthews, Eddie Royal, Jerry Porter, Frank Sanders, Bert Emanuel, Courtney Hawkins, Jeff Graham, Reche Caldwell

49-56 - 15 of 31 (48%) Davante Adams, DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (the Giants guy, not the Panthers one), Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, Chris Chambers, Peerless Price, Germane Crowell, Bobby Engram, AJ Brown, Tyler Boyd, Derrick Mayes, Qadry Ismail, Vincent Brisby, Joe Jurevicius

57-64 - 13 of 32 (41%) Juju Smith-Schuster, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Randall Cobb, Golden Tate, Antonio Bryant, Robert Brooks, Ricky Proehl, DJ Chark, Torrey Smith, Vincent Jackson, DK Metcalf, Rueben Randle

65-72 - 7 of 26 (27%) Cooper Kupp, Jake Reed, Tyler Lockett, Nate Burleson, Deion Branch, Chris Sanders, Lawrence Dawsey

73-80 - 17 of 38 (45%) Keenan Allen, Steve Smith (the Panther), Laveranues Coles, Marty Booker, Fred Barnett, Brandon LaFell, Laurent Robinson, James Jones, Mike Walker, Kevin Curtis, Darrell Jackson, Terry McLaurin, Marquise Goodwin, Bernard Berrian, Chris Jones, Andre Hastings, Ernie Mills

81-88 - 9 of 35 (26%) Chris Godwin, Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, Mike Wallace, Ed McCaffrey, Michael Gallup, Harry Douglas, Mohamed Sanu, Andre Roberts

89-96 - 9 of 30 (30%) Kenny Golladay, T.Y. Hilton, Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Antonio Freeman, Yancey Thigpen, John Brown, Mario Manningham, Az Hakim

97-128 - 23 of 117 (20%) Derrick Mason, Marcus Robinson, Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd, Mike Williams, Raghib Ismail, Chris Calloway, Brian Hartline, Jerricho Cotchery, Shaun McDonald, Brandon Stokley, Albert Connell, Travis Benjamin, Dede Westbrook, Jamison Crowder, Mike Thomas, Donald Hayes, Willie Jackson, Cecil Shorts, Tim Dwight, Keith Poole, Austin Collie, Justin McCareins

129-160 - 13 of 103 (13%) Joe Horn, Calvin Williams, Michael Jackson, Terance Mathis, Stefon Diggs, Patrick Jeffers, no WR2's in this group, Charles Wilson, Kenny Stills, Johnny Knox, Steve Breaston, Torrance Small, Riley Cooper, Jermaine Lewis

161-192 - 4 of 124 (3%) Tyreek Hill, Marvin Jones, Bill Schroeder, Tai Streets

193-224 - 8 of 114 (7%) Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Donald Driver, Steve Johnson, Troy Brown, Willie Green, Patrick Crayton

225-256 - 5 of 123 (4%) Julian Edelman, Marques Colston, Rishard Matthews, Kevin Walter, David Givens

257-end - 1 of 38 (3%) Keenan McCardell, no WR2's in this group, no WR3's in this group

UFA's - 32 total - Adam Thielen, Doug Baldwin, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, Wes Welker, Drew Bennett, Rod Smith, Willie Davis, Robby Anderson, Adam Humphries, Tyrell Williams, Allen Hurns, Lance Moore, Nate Washington, Davone Bess, Mike Furrey, James Thrash, Wayne Chrebet, Leslie Shepherd, James Jett, Willie Snead, Cole Beasley, Jermaine Kearse, Kamar Aiken, Rod Streater, Malcom Floyd, Danny Amendola, David Patten, Brian Finneran, James McKnight, Oronde Gadsden, Mark Seay

Supplemental - 3 - Josh Gordon, Rob Moore, Terrelle Pryor, no WR3's in this group

177 of 372 WR's selected from 1 thru 96 reached WR1/WR2/WR3 status (48%)
54 of 619 WR's selected after pick # 96 reached WR1/WR2/WR3 status (9%)

30 years x 36 WR spots = 1080 top 36 finishes.  Of those 1080 spots, they are taken by only 266 WR's.  Keep in mind, in the early 90's, most spots were taken by players drafted before 1990.  As @Crippler pointed out, this is because guys like Larry Fitzgerald have taken up 13 spots by himself.  Also, I noticed a big drop in hit rate after draft pick 24.  I will dig into number of top 36 finishes based on draft spot.  I have to assume the earlier you are drafted, the longer and better your career will be, but let's see how the data plays out.
 

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Great stuff Wiz!

I have meant to go through the WR careers as you are but I got hung up on the fact that target data only goes back to 1992 so that seems like a natural cut off point. I do think the target data creates some useful efficiency metrics like catch rate and yards per target.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Great stuff Wiz!

I have meant to go through the WR careers as you are but I got hung up on the fact that target data only goes back to 1992 so that seems like a natural cut off point. I do think the target data creates some useful efficiency metrics like catch rate and yards per target.

If you had to name the single most important category as an indicator for long term WR success, what would it be?  Number of targets, target share, catch %, TD's, QB play, yards per target, yards per catch, etc.

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8 hours ago, TheWinz said:

If you had to name the single most important category as an indicator for long term WR success, what would it be?  Number of targets, target share, catch %, TD's, QB play, yards per target, yards per catch, etc.

Hmm thats a great question.

I think that is one of the purposes of the study. For example what is the average yardage of all top 12 WR and for each of the other two groups?

I have always heard that TD are the least predictable or repeatable of the stats that matter for fantasy. There have been a few exceptions like Randy Moss and OBJ early on his career who were averaging near 1 TD per game, but most of the WR won't be doing that.

I am guessing some of the one year wonders are associated with them having relatively high TD that season and then not repeating it.

The receptions and yards are more reliable.

As far as what stats are useful for predicting future success I came across this and surprisingly average depth of target had the highest correlation, then targets per game.

This is an opportunity based game.

I was a bit surprised to see yards per target so low on that list. Not any better than TD.

Edited by Biabreakable

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11 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Hmm thats a great question.

I think that is one of the purposes of the study. For example what is the average yardage of all top 12 WR and for each of the other two groups?

I have always heard that TD are the least predictable or repeatable of the stats that matter for fantasy. There have been a few exceptions like Randy Moss and OBJ early on his career who were averaging near 1 TD per game, but most of the WR won't be doing that.

I am guessing some of the one year wonders are associated with them having relatively high TD that season and then not repeating it.

The receptions and yards are more reliable.

As far as what stats are useful for predicting future success I came across this and surprisingly average depth of target had the highest correlation, then targets per game.

This is an opportunity based game.

I was a bit surprised to see yards per target so low on that list. Not any better than TD.

That link is a great read, but I was in the wrong mindset when I looked it over.  I was thinking the author was saying average depth of target is the most important factor to increase your chances at success, not repeat them.

For me, targets rule all.  It's why Tyler Lockett may become a WR1 some day, but will never ever be a contender for the #1 WR.  FWIW, here is my order...

1) Targets - Over the last 10 seasons, there have been 8 different WR's to lead the league, including (gulp) Pierre Garcon.  Those 10 seasons produced WR1, WR2, WR1, WR3, WR2, WR2, WR11 (yeah, this is Pierre), WR1, WR5, and WR1.  Targets are the sole reason we can call Pierre a WR1.  He did have 5 other seasons of 100+ targets, but his average finish in those seasons was WR35.  More targets lead to more catches, which lead to more yards.  2020's least likely WR to drop out of top 12 and most likely WR to lead league in targets = same person (Michael Thomas).

2) Yards - Julio Jones is a great example here.  He has finished as a top 7 WR each of the last 6 seasons.  Also, in those 6 years, he had the least number of TD's of all top 7 finishers every year.  In normal FF scoring, 60 yards receiving equals a TD, and Julio racks up yardage.  I'll take the consistent yardage monsters over the TD dependent guys all day long.  Julio finished WR7 in 2017 with only 3 TD's.  Just how impressive is Julio's 9388 yards over the last 6 seasons?  Well, it's 1588 more than the next closest guy (Nuke).  Julio has finished 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 3 in yardage, and that's what has kept him in the WR1 mix throughout his career.

3) Catch percentage plus yards per catch - I know these are 2 separate categories, but I prefer to combine them.  Each one on it's own doesn't say much, but when combined, can be a good indicator of which WR's a QB will prefer, leading to more targets (which is the goal).  Say what you will about Keenan Allen, but with a career catch percentage of 68.4% (very good) and a YPC of 12.2 (average), his combined 80.6 inspired Rivers confidence in him.  It's also why Mike Williams (57.5% + 17.1 YPC) will play second fiddle to a healthy Keenan.  Yes, I had to put the word healthy in there.

4) TD's - Fluky as they may seem, unless you are a huge target hog, you're gonna need TD's to reach the top.  Even so, you may still fall short.  In 2018, 3 WR's had 10 TD's each, and none were WR1's.  And, as @Biabreakable said, unless you are the exception, you may fall into the 1 hit wonder group.  Just ask Dwayne Bowe, whose only WR1 finish came along with 15 TD's.  I chose Bowe, because he is also one of the leaders in yards without a TD (754).  The average WR1-WR12 in the last 5 years had 43 TD's,  but only 2 have actually reached that (Antonio Brown & DeAndre Hopkins).  Just goes to show TD's are inconsistent but needed.

Of course, there are many other categories, but I think they kinda fall under one of the groups above.  I left off per game numbers on purpose, as I would not project WR's to miss games.  Would you rather have your fantasy WR finish as a WR3 with great per game stats, or finish as a WR1 with lower per game stats?

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On 2/9/2020 at 10:20 AM, Crippler said:

Love the numbers Winz. Great job

quick look to me says most #1s had more than one top 24 season but a lot of the #2s did not repeat again

maybe taking this out to doing 2 times, 3 or 4 would be great. To invest a top pick in rookie draft you want more than 1 top 24 season. Hoping for multiple. 

Let's call this the "one hit wonder rate".  Of the 113 WR's who have reached WR1 status, here are the numbers, both in terms of average number of WR1 finishes, as well as percentage of WR's with only one WR1 season.  I have chosen to lump receivers in groups of 32, because the sample size for smaller groups would've painted a less accurate picture.  I also lumped all remaining WR's after pick 96.  The last group is comprised of UFA's & supplementals.

1-32 - Of the 38 who made it, the average # of WR1 finishes is 3.2.  10 of 38 had only 1 WR1 season = 26% one hit wonders
33-64 - Of the 27 who made it, the average # of WR1 finishes is 2.11.  13 of 27 had only 1 WR1 season = 48% one hit wonders
65-96 - Of the 18 who made it, the average # of WR1 finishes is 2.11.  9 of 18 had only 1 WR1 season = 50% one hit wonders
97-end of draft - Of the 20 who made it, the average # of WR1 finishes is 2.05.  11 of 20 had only 1 WR1 season = 55% one hit wonders
UFA/Sup - Of the 10 who made it, the average # of WR1 finishes is 1.80.  5 of 10 had only 1 WR1 season = 50% one hit wonders

The numbers show what we expected, but I think the sample sizes are still a bit too small.  Guys like Randy Moss & Marvin Harrison (17 combined WR1 finishes) can literally make 11 other 1 hit wonders look like they've had multiple WR1 finishes when you lump them together.  Conversely, those 1 hit wonders make Moss & Harrison look like run of the mill WR1's.

As a general rule, yes, the earlier you are drafted, the more likely you are to become a WR1, and the longer you will perform at a high level.  But after crunching all these numbers over the last few days, I can easily see how someone can cherry-pick and make the data say whatever they want.

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6 hours ago, TheWinz said:

That link is a great read, but I was in the wrong mindset when I looked it over.  I was thinking the author was saying average depth of target is the most important factor to increase your chances at success, not repeat them.

I have the following articles saved for some time distant in the future when I have the opportunity to sit down an try to replicate some stuff in excel, which is how it turns from "something interesting I read" to "something I feel I understand."  So with that caveat that I've only read and not sure I intuitively "get" yet, I thought these were interesting on WR production.

https://twitrsports.com/2019/09/14/predicting-wr-production-with-generalized-linear-models-part-1-breakouts/

https://twitrsports.com/2019/10/29/predicting-wr-production-with-generalized-linear-models-part-2-breakouts-but-later/

Part 1 is probably better for understanding their process (with a weird hook of "oh I never thought of that"), part 2 with the updated model that seems to fit common sense much more closely.  

Not sure helpful for you, but FYI

edit: still not an indicator for "repeating" but another person's look at the factors that matter.  

Edited by inyoutees
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You probably have this already Winz but I was interested. Most appearances to lowest but only back to 2001 as FBG stat tool gets funky after that. Gives good idea as some surprises in here and others already known

Larry Fitzgerald35-27-5-12-7-17-33-6-12-5-2-5-24-2-31

Anquan Boldin19-15-30-34-25-17-6-19-15-5-3

Andre Johnson28-10-6-7-1-1-27-11-17-22

Brandon Marshall3-34-6-2-11-20-7-5-9

Steve Smith18-20-7-20-8-16-7-1-10

Terrell Owens17-27-11-3-2-36-6-11-3

Derrick Mason28-18-20-14-36-19-11-7-22

Julio Jones3-2-7-6-2-6-11-22

Antonio Brown5-2-1-1-1-3-32-24

Calvin Johnson12-16-5-1-1-6-22-3

Marques Colston26-26-12-10-15-16-8-17

Chad Johnson33-14-7-6-3-7-4-20

Hines Ward12-17-28-22-12-23-6-2

TY Hilton14-27-5-23-11-19-31

AJ Green10-34-8-24-4-31-17

Mike Wallace24-20-27-23-9-9-35

Roddy White21-10-5-1-9-4-15

Wes Welker21-7-2-18-4-10-10

Randy Moss2-12-1-20-26-1-5

Reggie Wayne3-13-2-5-16-9-20

Donald Driver19-22-23-4-11-10-15

Torry Holt34-11-3-4-4-2-13

DeAndre Hopkina5-1-1-27-4-14

Julian Edelmen7-21-14-35-17-14

Jarvis Landry12-19-4-12-11-30

Mike Evans16-9-17-3-21-13

Emmanuel Sanders32-23-20-17-5-32

Golden Tate30-12-17-24-12-30

Demaryus Thomas16-15-9-2-1-5

Michael Crabtree31-11-20-13-28-36

Jeremy Maclin15-9-22-31-14-36

Desean Jackson23-12-29-21-11-31

Vincent Jackson33-16-13-13-13-19

Greg Jennings35-18-5-21-7-18

Santana Moss11-18-28-29-6-8

TJ Houshmandzadeh25-21-6-10-14-28

Laveranues Coles24-14-27-30-12-12

Marvin Harrison36-1-9-5-5-1

Keean Allen6-12-3-35-18

Amari Cooper10-18-35-16-22

Odell Beckham25-15-4-5-7

Dez Bryant24-4-7-4-19

Pierre Garcon22-30-11-21-29

Mushin Muhammad28-30-33-1-36

Isaac Bruce29-23-12-17-16

Lee Evans30-33-8-32-29

Plaxico Burress13-16-10-26-10

Chris Chambers 29-35-8-24-16

Michael Thomas1-6-6-7

Stefon Diggs21-11-19-30

Devante Adams23-4-13-9

Marvin Jones28-11-36-29

Tyreek Hill33-3-9-23

Brandin Cooks13-15-10-14

Alshon Jeffrey25-23-10-8

Randall Cobb36-25-8-16

Jordy Nelson2-3-13-4

Eric Decker13-26-9-9

Torrey Smith29-23-28-30

Lance Moore20-35-24-14

Dwayne Bowe14-4-15-22

Nate Burleson32-34-31-18

Santonio Holmes33-15-32-24

Braylon Edwards26-35-4-26

Jerricho Cotchery32-27-20-19

Joey Galloway26-21-7-26

Roy Williams09-30-35-32

Darrell Jackson18-13-15-35

Keyshawn Johnson28-26-27-21

Eddie Kennison31-18-21-24

Rod Smith13-15-21-18

Jimmy Smith21-19-33-17

Allen Robinson8-28-6

Robert Woods14-10-33

Jamieson Crowder26-32-30

Adam Theilen7, 8, 29

Doug Baldwin14. 8. 10

Ted Ginn34-34-33

Steve Johnson18, 16, 10

Mike Williams TB19, 3, 16

Victor Cruz28-14-3

Miles Austin24-13-6

Brandon Lloyd26, 23, 2

Percy Harvin8, 22, 24

Hakeem Nicks12, 8, 33

Deion Branch31-22-35

Antonio Bryant09-25. 35

Bernard Berrian26-25-33

Javon Walker12, 3, 27

Terry Glenn20-15-29

Jerry Porter24-22-33

Eric Moulds28-20-4

Amani Toomer31-19-7

Joe Horn13, 2, 8

Chris Godwin2, 26

Cooper Kupp4, 25

Kenny Golloday9, 22

Tyler Lockett13-17

DJ Moore15-36

Tyler Boyd17-16

John Brown20-33

Calvin Ridley27-20

Cole Beasley24-33

JuJu Smith-Schu8, 12

Mohammad Sanu29-29

Sterling Shepherd31-36

Nelson Agholor34-21

Terrell Pryor21-33

Kelvin Benjamin25-15

Kenny Britt26-34

Willie Snead32-31

Brandon Lafell35-22

Jordan Matthews16-25

Sammy Watkins19-27

James Jones29-17

Rueben Randle32-32

Eddie Royal31, 16

Brian Hartline24-27

Michael Floyd25-36

Nate Washington36-15

Sidney Rice35, 10

Mario Manningham19-30

Davone Bess23-31

Austin Collioe35-29

Kevin Walter23-32

Bobby Engram12-34

Kevin Curtis17-30

Reggie Brown34-27

Marty Booker32, 11

Keenan McCardell17, 9

David Patten34-36

Koren Robinson23-15

Peerless Price28, 6

Jerry Rice 30, 9

Rod Gardner31-19

Devabte Parker11

DJ Chark18

Cortand Sutton19

AJ Brown22

|Michael Gallup24

Terry McLaurin29

DJ Metcalf30

Deebi Samuel31

Curtis Samnuel36

Adam Humphries24

Corey Davis28

Mike Williams32

Dede Westbrook33

Zay Jones35

Robby Anderson18

Devin Funchess20

Kenny Stills26

Jermaine Kearse28

Marquis Goodwin30

Tyrell Williams18

Rishard Matthews19

Alan Hurns18

Kamar Aiken26

Tavon Austin27

Travis Benjamin28

Josh Gordon2

Kendall Wright20

Harry Douglas22

Riley Cooper31

Rod Streater34

Cecil Shorts25

Justin Blackmon29

Andre Roberts34

Laurent Robinson20

Jabar Gaffney26

Derrus Heyward-Be27

Mike Thomas27

Danny Amendola30

Johnny Knox32

Steve Smith NYG8

Mike Sims-Walker23

Robert Meachum26

Steve Breaston25

Shaun McDonald21

Patrick Crayton35

Reggie Williams36

Mike Furrey13

Mark Clayton25

Reche Caldwell34

Joe Jurevicius29

Drew Bennett8

Michael Clayton14

Brandon Stokely16

Ashley Lelie25

Donte Stallworth33

David Givens36

Peter Warrick16

David Boston18

Justin McCareins25

Ike Hillard32

Johnnie Morton34

Troy Brown23

Quincy Morgan24

Travis Taylor25

Curtis Conway27

Tim Brown28

Todd Pinkston29

Tai Streets30

Brian Finneran32

Wayne Chrebet34

James Thrash31

Edited by Crippler
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11 hours ago, TheWinz said:

That link is a great read, but I was in the wrong mindset when I looked it over.  I was thinking the author was saying average depth of target is the most important factor to increase your chances at success, not repeat them.

Yeah their focus is more on making projections for the next season. Not the players entire career.

I tried using your terminology when searching for an answer and came across that. I know it doesn't really answer the question you were asking though. 

That is something I think a long term study can answer, that yearly projections do not.

11 hours ago, TheWinz said:

For me, targets rule all.  It's why Tyler Lockett may become a WR1 some day, but will never ever be a contender for the #1 WR.  FWIW, here is my order...

1) Targets - Over the last 10 seasons, there have been 8 different WR's to lead the league, including (gulp) Pierre Garcon.  Those 10 seasons produced WR1, WR2, WR1, WR3, WR2, WR2, WR11 (yeah, this is Pierre), WR1, WR5, and WR1.  Targets are the sole reason we can call Pierre a WR1.  He did have 5 other seasons of 100+ targets, but his average finish in those seasons was WR35.  More targets lead to more catches, which lead to more yards.  2020's least likely WR to drop out of top 12 and most likely WR to lead league in targets = same person (Michael Thomas).

2) Yards - Julio Jones is a great example here.  He has finished as a top 7 WR each of the last 6 seasons.  Also, in those 6 years, he had the least number of TD's of all top 7 finishers every year.  In normal FF scoring, 60 yards receiving equals a TD, and Julio racks up yardage.  I'll take the consistent yardage monsters over the TD dependent guys all day long.  Julio finished WR7 in 2017 with only 3 TD's.  Just how impressive is Julio's 9388 yards over the last 6 seasons?  Well, it's 1588 more than the next closest guy (Nuke).  Julio has finished 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, and 3 in yardage, and that's what has kept him in the WR1 mix throughout his career.

3) Catch percentage plus yards per catch - I know these are 2 separate categories, but I prefer to combine them.  Each one on it's own doesn't say much, but when combined, can be a good indicator of which WR's a QB will prefer, leading to more targets (which is the goal).  Say what you will about Keenan Allen, but with a career catch percentage of 68.4% (very good) and a YPC of 12.2 (average), his combined 80.6 inspired Rivers confidence in him.  It's also why Mike Williams (57.5% + 17.1 YPC) will play second fiddle to a healthy Keenan.  Yes, I had to put the word healthy in there.

4) TD's - Fluky as they may seem, unless you are a huge target hog, you're gonna need TD's to reach the top.  Even so, you may still fall short.  In 2018, 3 WR's had 10 TD's each, and none were WR1's.  And, as @Biabreakable said, unless you are the exception, you may fall into the 1 hit wonder group.  Just ask Dwayne Bowe, whose only WR1 finish came along with 15 TD's.  I chose Bowe, because he is also one of the leaders in yards without a TD (754).  The average WR1-WR12 in the last 5 years had 43 TD's,  but only 2 have actually reached that (Antonio Brown & DeAndre Hopkins).  Just goes to show TD's are inconsistent but needed.

Of course, there are many other categories, but I think they kinda fall under one of the groups above.  I left off per game numbers on purpose, as I would not project WR's to miss games.  Would you rather have your fantasy WR finish as a WR3 with great per game stats, or finish as a WR1 with lower per game stats?

I have found that the yards are the main thing that matters. In PPR the targets and receptions do matter a bit more. That said I think you can use the data to try to find what things matter as I suggested in previous post.

There are some advantages to PPG stats compared to raw per season stats. Especially for players who have played full seasons or close to it before at a similar level, its not that hard to think they would be as good over more games if they had not been injured.

The problem with PPG stats is if you pro rate too many games, I don't think that is going to be accurate moving forward. I have seen too many times players being projected off of 4 or 8 game samples never come close to those PPG numbers again.

I would prefer to have a WR 3 who performs as a WR one for a few games provided I might be able to identify those match ups and to start the player in those games. Realistically that isn't an easy thing to do when the WR isn't performing at that level consistently. If you have other good WR you might not ever start that WR 3 who has a few big games to get there.

Its a question of consistency vs upside once again. A consistent WR 3 scorer might not ever crack the line up because of lack of upside.

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6 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Might have to give up on JJAW for roster cuts if I can't trade him.

 

Anyone else cutting bait in dynasty?

You have to try and get a pick or something before cutting. While I advocate taking value on young bust WR’s, cutting them isn’t the right idea either IMO. I see a lot of new guys do this in dynasty and regret it even if the player doesn’t work out.

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17 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

You have to try and get a pick or something before cutting. While I advocate taking value on young bust WR’s, cutting them isn’t the right idea either IMO. I see a lot of new guys do this in dynasty and regret it even if the player doesn’t work out.

No bites so far

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1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

No bites so far

Who are you thinking about cutting him over? Roster size?

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1 hour ago, Iceman03 said:

Who are you thinking about cutting him over? Roster size?

Lazard, Greg Ward, Boone (I own D. Cook), Gesicki, Duke Williams, Duke Johnson and/or Josh Reynolds. Depends on what happens with all those guys in the off-season as well, of course.

Edited by hispeedthinmint

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1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Lazard, Greg Ward, Boone (I own D. Cook), Gesicki, Duke Williams, Duke Johnson and/or Josh Reynolds. Depends on what happens with all those guys in the off-season as well, of course.

Don’t cut Gesicki or Duke Johnson. I would hold JJAW over all those guys, if you only need to cut one Duke Williams is the guy I would cut.

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On 2/5/2020 at 1:43 AM, Iceman03 said:

Yes. Given what I’ve looked at over the past decade I believe BMI to be both an indicator of potential durability but also a potential cap for WR1 type of seasons.

I think we would also need to consider the player's frame (potential to add some muscle weight). I like M. Brown but at 5'9" he likely doesn't have the ability to increase his weight (and thus BMI) much without losing effectiveness while Lamb (6'2") and (6'1") have room to do so while not taking away speed/athleticism.

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Saw in the dynasty trade thread were Campbell was moved for a mid 2nd. Perfect example of  giving up on a WR prospect too early IMO. Campbell wasn't healthy most of the year (missed 8 games) and could very well have Rivers, Winston, or Brady for his QB this season. Not to mention a healthy Hilton would also help his coverage each week. Just my humble opinion...

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40 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Saw in the dynasty trade thread were Campbell was moved for a mid 2nd. Perfect example of  giving up on a WR prospect too early IMO. Campbell wasn't healthy most of the year (missed 8 games) and could very well have Rivers, Winston, or Brady for his QB this season. Not to mention a healthy Hilton would also help his coverage each week. Just my humble opinion...

He's a hold or sell low in February 2020.  By the time free agency plays out, his value will be solidified, whether that be at rock bottom or somewhere closer to his original draft position.

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1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

Saw in the dynasty trade thread were Campbell was moved for a mid 2nd. Perfect example of  giving up on a WR prospect too early IMO. Campbell wasn't healthy most of the year (missed 8 games) and could very well have Rivers, Winston, or Brady for his QB this season. Not to mention a healthy Hilton would also help his coverage each week. Just my humble opinion...

Roster space in some leagues plays a role too if trading Campbell + a late 2nd to move up to the early 2nd..  If the Colts draft a WR high or sign Cooper, his value goes even lower and that's not even including their QB play.

Edited by JohnnyU

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4 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Saw in the dynasty trade thread were Campbell was moved for a mid 2nd. Perfect example of  giving up on a WR prospect too early IMO. Campbell wasn't healthy most of the year (missed 8 games) and could very well have Rivers, Winston, or Brady for his QB this season. Not to mention a healthy Hilton would also help his coverage each week. Just my humble opinion...

I would take a mid 2nd over Campbell. In the mid 2nd you're getting a player whose value is similar to what Campbell's was coming into the league (at least after Luck was gone). And Campbell's value should have gone down over the past year given how little he did as a rookie.

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6 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think we would also need to consider the player's frame (potential to add some muscle weight). I like M. Brown but at 5'9" he likely doesn't have the ability to increase his weight (and thus BMI) much without losing effectiveness while Lamb (6'2") and (6'1") have room to do so while not taking away speed/athleticism.

I’m very conflicted on Lamb. It feels petty but he would be my WR1 if not for his assumed BMI right now. I hope he somehow gets up to 25.7ish which would put him in the framework for margin of error. Right now I have Reagor ahead of him and Edwards and him about the same red flag wise. I.E. One fatal flaw in their profile. 

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6 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Saw in the dynasty trade thread were Campbell was moved for a mid 2nd. Perfect example of  giving up on a WR prospect too early IMO. Campbell wasn't healthy most of the year (missed 8 games) and could very well have Rivers, Winston, or Brady for his QB this season. Not to mention a healthy Hilton would also help his coverage each week. Just my humble opinion...

 

1 hour ago, ZWK said:

I would take a mid 2nd over Campbell. In the mid 2nd you're getting a player whose value is similar to what Campbell's was coming into the league (at least after Luck was gone). And Campbell's value should have gone down over the past year given how little he did as a rookie.

I was the seller of Campbell and it was Campbell and 5.4 for 2.6 and 3.5.  The initial offer was 2.6, and I was on the fence about it even though I didn't feel good about Campbell's long term value.  Getting the 3.5 made it a very easy decision for me. I got McLaurin at 3.7 last year.  Ironically, I gave 2.7 for Devante Parker last April to the same owner.

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1 hour ago, Iceman03 said:

I’m very conflicted on Lamb. It feels petty but he would be my WR1 if not for his assumed BMI right now. I hope he somehow gets up to 25.7ish which would put him in the framework for margin of error. Right now I have Reagor ahead of him and Edwards and him about the same red flag wise. I.E. One fatal flaw in their profile. 

I could see Lamb bulking up and his game isn’t really speed. I’m not passing on him due to BMI at this point, (not trying to discount your work) as I’ll go a little “old school” and ignore analytics for the eye-test when it comes to him. It’s interesting to see statistics like this. Surely food for thought.

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3 hours ago, Iceman03 said:

I’m very conflicted on Lamb. It feels petty but he would be my WR1 if not for his assumed BMI right now. I hope he somehow gets up to 25.7ish which would put him in the framework for margin of error. Right now I have Reagor ahead of him and Edwards and him about the same red flag wise. I.E. One fatal flaw in their profile. 

What is the actual difference between 25. 5 BMI and 25.7 BMI?

The player could take a dump and cause that difference. So why do you care about it so much?

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

What is the actual difference between 25. 5 BMI and 25.7 BMI?

The player could take a dump and cause that difference. So why do you care about it so much?

I’m pretty sure I have him at 25.2. This is all probabilities man. You don’t want to use probabilities then don’t. You act with condescension like I created the threshold or that I can’t prove that it’s a real deal. 

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13 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

I’m pretty sure I have him at 25.2. This is all probabilities man. You don’t want to use probabilities then don’t. You act with condescension like I created the threshold or that I can’t prove that it’s a real deal. 

Over the last year I've found the probability/statistics guys tend to, for some reason, rub the "film"/youtube highlight guys the wrong way. 

Me, I'm all about statistically improving my chances at drafting a hit. I'll still miss but I'd bet $100 I draft more hits than the guy drafting against the probabilities 

To each their own 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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4 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

What is the actual difference between 25. 5 BMI and 25.7 BMI?

The player could take a dump and cause that difference. So why do you care about it so much?

From the weight listed at College Football Reference  he would be 24.3 BMI. I certainly didn’t think I had him listed THAT low. That’s not good. You can think this as recency bias if you wish but here is what I posted in my rookie thread:

WR’s in the last six seasons to produce a top 12 season in PPR  with <26 BMI:

Thielen x2 25.7

Diggs 25.9

AJ Green x2 25.6

Manny Sanders 25.1

Now you could certainly argue to me that there is room to add in WR2 which would add John Brown, DJ Chark and a few others but we’re talking about a guy fighting for consensus #1 and compared to DeAndre Hopkins in our own player thread on this board.

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3 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

I’m pretty sure I have him at 25.2. This is all probabilities man. You don’t want to use probabilities then don’t. You act with condescension like I created the threshold or that I can’t prove that it’s a real deal. 

Not being condescending at all. I am sorry if you take it that way.

I used to track BMI numbers for soldiers when I was in the Army. Those numbers are changing all the time.

A .5 difference in BMI is 5 or less pounds.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Over the last year I've found the probability/statistics guys tend to, for some reason, rub the "film"/youtube highlight guys the wrong way. 

Me, I'm all about statistically improving my chances at drafting a hit. I'll still miss but I'd bet $100 I draft more hits than the guy drafting against the probabilities 

To each their own 

FYi I am not against the use of analytics at all.

i am against drawing erroneous conclusions from it though.

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4 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Not being condescending at all. I am sorry if you take it that way.

I used to track BMI numbers for soldiers when I was in the Army. Those numbers are changing all the time.

A .5 difference in BMI is 5 or less pounds.

 

 

Fair enough. I have him as WR3 right now. 🤷🏻‍♂️ I’m rooting for him to be bigger or shorter so I feel comfortable he won’t miss large swaths of the season. Which is mostly what the BMI data suggest use (good to great players have obviously had success within the threshold. Paul Richardson is the one who drew me to this data and many are of his ilk). Also, much like a boxing match 5 lbs is a big deal in top end athletics.

Edited by Iceman03

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9 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

WR's to produce a top 12 season in PPR  with <26 BMI:

Thielen x2 25.7

Diggs 25.9

AJ Green x2 25.6

Manny Sanders 25.1

 

But were they measured before or after their daily sit down?

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

But were they measured before or after their daily sit down?

With what Stefon Diggs posts on twitter I’m not sure he’s taken a deuce since the draft.

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One thing that people say is "oh he can put 10 pounds on that frame easy" as if it happens all the time. I'd be seriously interested in how many wrs put on 10+ pounds over the course of their career. RBs tend to fluctuate but I rarely hear of wrs doing it (aside from David Boston roiding up). It would certainly put an end to people assuming a WR will get bigger, or give it credibility 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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23 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

From the weight listed at College Football Reference  he would be 24.3 BMI. I certainly didn’t think I had him listed THAT low. That’s not good. You can think this as recency bias if you wish but here is what I posted in my rookie thread:

WR’s in the last six seasons to produce a top 12 season in PPR  with <26 BMI:

Thielen x2 25.7

Diggs 25.9

AJ Green x2 25.6

Manny Sanders 25.1

Now you could certainly argue to me that there is room to add in WR2 which would add John Brown, DJ Chark and a few others but we’re talking about a guy fighting for consensus #1 and compared to DeAndre Hopkins in our own player thread on this board.

I have Sanders entering the NFL at 26.03 BMI.

Here are my BMI numbers (and other numbers) for successful NFL WRs.

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Did a quick search for ####s and giggles 😬

WR’s >/=6’1 </=195lbs to score >100 fantasy points the last ten years. Threw BMI and every other metric out the window:

Damien Williams (TEN), Nate Washington, Brandon Tate, Rod Streater, Darius Slayton, Jerome Simpson, Tajae Sharpe, Laurent Robinson, Seth Roberts, Calvin Ridley, Dante Pettis, Kevin Ogletree, Chad Johnson, Allen Hurns, Brian Hartline, Josh Cribbs, Keelan Cole, Steve Breaston, Bernard Berrian, Steve Breaston, Bernard Berrian, Robby Anderson.

Chad Johnson is listed at 24.8 BMI on PFR. This is the ceiling comp I would want. 

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11 minutes ago, ZWK said:

I have Sanders entering the NFL at 26.03 BMI.

Here are my BMI numbers (and other numbers) for successful NFL WRs.

I use pro football reference... I don’t know why there are so many discrepancies between those sites. PFR seems to align with what is listed on NFL.com, not saying that is a trusted source either but I guess there is going to be some needles in the process.

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College players have a listed height and weight which is information that I think is put out by their team, and then at the combine or their pro day they get weighed on a scale and measured using a ruler and those numbers get tracked on various sites including draftscout (and PFR, although they just give heights rounded to the nearest inch), and then in the NFL players have a listed height and weight which is information that I think is put out by their team or the NFL.

I almost always look at combine (or other pre-draft) measurements when I'm interested in player sizes, since those are the one set of numbers we have which are definitely based on actual measurements. And also because we usually care about player size when we're trying to project what will happen with a player who is entering the NFL, and the combine measurements of past players are what's most directly comparable to the information that we have about this current prospect.

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