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Effect Of Impeachment on 2020 Election (1 Viewer)

What Do You Think Is The Effect Of Impeachment on 2020 Election?

  • I am Pro Trump And It Helped Trump's Chances In 2020

    Votes: 14 9.7%

  • I am Pro Trump And It Had No Effect On Trump's Chances In 2020

    Votes: 2 1.4%

  • I am Pro Trump And It Hurt Trump's Chances In 2020

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I am Undecided And It Helped Trump's Chances In 2020

    Votes: 20 13.9%

  • I am Undecided And It Had No Effect On Trump's Chances In 2020

    Votes: 7 4.9%

  • I am Undecided And It Hurt Trump's Chances In 2020

    Votes: 3 2.1%

  • I am Anti Trump And It Helped Trump's Chances In 2020

    Votes: 11 7.6%

  • I am Anti Trump And It Had No Effect On Trump's Chances In 2020

    Votes: 46 31.9%

  • I am Anti Trump And It Hurt Trump's Chances In 2020

    Votes: 41 28.5%
  • Total voters
    144
Perhaps time will prove me wrong, but I believe this helped the President.  We're still 9 months out and so many things can happen--especially when it comes to Trump.  But I believe for a number of reasons this will be a boost to his campaign.

1.  America loves the story.  We clap for addicts that get clean.  We cheer for alcoholics who got sober.  We weep for the falsely imprisoned and accused.  We love that...comeback or turnaround story.  They loved a cleared name.  Trump went through the process and (barring a major shock) will have been acquitted.  While many here won't see it that way--a lot of American swill.

2.  Americans are exhausted with investigations.  It's been non-stop since 2016.  And this has only furthered that narrative.  And you better believe Trump and his people are planning on how to best sell it. 

3.  Biden Biden Biden.  Hunter and Joe Biden were a major discussion topic.  America now has reason to doubt their integrity.  What's more, Lindsay Graham seems serious about launching a formal investigation.  If you believed Biden was the man to beat Trump, this makes it a lot more interesting. 

 
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I'm in the 4th category...as most of you know.   :)

The left is already voting for whatever Dem candidate wins the nomination and the conservatives were never leaving Trump.

It comes down to what the undecideds think in the battleground states, and as an Independent (and other independents I've talked to)I viewed the impeachment as a charade and wast of time.  Political at best, toxic and divisive at worst. 

 
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"I am anti-Trump and it had no [little to slightly negative] impact on Trump's chances in the 2020 election."

The acquittal outcome of impeachment process has been highly predictable for months now.  In stock market terms, the whole impeachment process has been "priced in" to Trump's chances since late last year. During that time Trump's popularity numbers (proxy for election chances) have barely moved.

Dems will gain slightly in terms of being generally perceived as the party of moral high ground...but 10 months is a long time and the impeachment process will likely soon fade from memory...Trump is what he is...what happens between now and November will end up having the bigger impact (in particular, state of the economy).

 
With Bolton’s book, Republican Senators admitting what Trump did was wrong and other bits of evidence trickling out, everyone will know what that Trump did was wrong. It’s not going to help him.

That said, I don’t think his supporters really care.

I voted no effect.

 
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jm192 said:
Perhaps time will prove me wrong, but I believe this helped the President.  We're still 9 months out and so many things can happen--especially when it comes to Trump.  But I believe for a number of reasons this will be a boost to his campaign.

1.  America loves the story.  We clap for addicts that get clean.  We cheer for alcoholics who got sober.  We weep for the falsely imprisoned and accused.  We love that...comeback or turnaround story.  They loved a cleared name.  Trump went through the process and (barring a major shock) will have been acquitted.  While many here won't see it that way--a lot of American swill.

2.  Americans are exhausted with investigations.  It's been non-stop since 2016.  And this has only furthered that narrative.  And you better believe Trump and his people are planning on how to best sell it. 

3.  Biden Biden Biden.  Hunter and Joe Biden were a major discussion topic.  America now has reason to doubt their integrity.  What's more, Lindsay Graham seems serious about launching a formal investigation.  If you believed Biden was the man to beat Trump, this makes it a lot more interesting. 
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2.  America is tired of investigations.

3.  Another investigation?

 
Juxtatarot said:
With Bolton’s book, Republican Senators admitting what Trump did was wrong and other bits of evidence trickling out, everyone will know what that Trump did was wrong. It’s not going to help him.

That said, I don’t think his supporters really care.

I voted no effect.
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His supporters don't...but I think it will motivate plenty more against him.  I think it slightly hurts his chances

 
I will say, despite my answer above, I doubt it's exactly zero effect - seems impossible.  So, in that regard, I will say that it probably didn't help him but it's so negligible in the grand scheme of things that I'll stick with no effect.

 
AAABatteries said:
The people that don't normally vote aren't paying attention.  Partisans were not having their vote changed either way.  Those that are truly independent and hadn't made up their mind are probably not a large number and who the D nominee is going to be is a bigger factor than impeachment.  Voted it had no effect.
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When Trump brings it up during the debates, does it help or hurt the Democrats?

Does a failed impeachment energize the Republican base?

 
AAABatteries said:
I will say, despite my answer above, I doubt it's exactly zero effect - seems impossible.  So, in that regard, I will say that it probably didn't help him but it's so negligible in the grand scheme of things that I'll stick with no effect.
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That's kind of where I'm at. I can't imagine there are many fence sitters out there. It certainly doesn't help outside his base, but it may influence the non-voter who thinks maybe they should step up. 

Hurt some, but not much.

Also, its not the end. Something else will come out to further weigh him down. It won't stop.

 
Hurts. Gives legit "caution flag" soundbytes for his opposition to use in Oct. and Nov.......particularly to court Independents.  I can't imagine there being many Indys who, when exposed to the relentless level of commercials showing how the R's in the Senate failed the process, will feel comfortable having both the Senate and POTUS office in the hands of Trump for another 4 years.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Because it is standard practice.  It’s the right thing to do.  Of course, that’s why I expect him to weasel out of it.  He doesn’t care about doing the right thing.
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I agree but he also LOVES the spotlight.  He's a narcissist - it will be very hard for him to pass on letting his fans see him fight the enemy on the field of battle.*

*that's how I think he and his supporters see it

 
For what it's worth, I caught up with one of my friends yesterday who is a Trump supporter. He thinks the impeachment has been a big boost for Trump's chances in 2020. 

In his opinion, it plays right into the "They're not out to get me, they're out to get you" narrative. 

 
JohnnyU said:
Really?  I don't think you believe that for one second.
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I very much believe it. I have stated it over and over. Let me state it again just so you have me down on record: 

1. I think Bernie Sanders or Liz Warren have about a 40-50% chance to defeat Trump. 

2. Any of the other candidates left in the race have about a 70-75% chance to defeat Trump. 

Feel free to use this against me. 

 
AAABatteries said:
I agree but he also LOVES the spotlight.  He's a narcissist - it will be very hard for him to pass on letting his fans see him fight the enemy on the field of battle.*

*that's how I think he and his supporters see it
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I agree. And the Democratic nominee would certainly play up the idea that’s he’s scared if he refused.

 
Joe Bryant said:
For what it's worth, I caught up with one of my friends yesterday who is a Trump supporter. He thinks the impeachment has been a big boost for Trump's chances in 2020. 

In his opinion, it plays right into the "They're not out to get me, they're out to get you" narrative. 
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I believe that his supporters believe this. It plays well with his base, but not so much with everyone else.

 
Joe Bryant said:
For what it's worth, I caught up with one of my friends yesterday who is a Trump supporter. He thinks the impeachment has been a big boost for Trump's chances in 2020. 

In his opinion, it plays right into the "They're not out to get me, they're out to get you" narrative. 
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I think your friend, like most of us, is a victim of confirmation bias. It’s a rare person who says, in political situations “I think what just happened hurts my guy, and now my side is going to lose.” I don’t do it very often myself. Nobody wants to believe that. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
For what it's worth, I caught up with one of my friends yesterday who is a Trump supporter. He thinks the impeachment has been a big boost for Trump's chances in 2020. 

In his opinion, it plays right into the "They're not out to get me, they're out to get you" narrative. 
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That sentiment goes both ways. By making it an "us vs them" he conveys that mentality to the other side as well.

 
I think his illegal activity slightly hurt his chances. The impeachment will have no effect on the presidential election, but will hurt some GOP senators' chances.

 
Joe Bryant said:
For what it's worth, I caught up with one of my friends yesterday who is a Trump supporter. He thinks the impeachment has been a big boost for Trump's chances in 2020. 

In his opinion, it plays right into the "They're not out to get me, they're out to get you" narrative. 
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Divide and conquer is the objective of his game. 

 
I have absolutely no idea but then again I couldn't fathom that he could have become the nominee and win the election in 2016 either.

 
I think this has more impact on senate races than presidential, but not as much impact as the democratic nominee will have. 

 
timschochet said:
I think your friend, like most of us, is a victim of confirmation bias. It’s a rare person who says, in political situations “I think what just happened hurts my guy, and now my side is going to lose.” I don’t do it very often myself. Nobody wants to believe that. 
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Yeah, not sure. I'm a huge believer in confirmation bias but not sure this is it.

I think this poll, even as small as it is, is interesting with regard to independents.

I found this NYTimes article very interesting. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/business/economy/independent-voters-economy.html

Americans are feeling better about the economy, a trend that, if it continues, could bolster President Trump’s prospects for re-election in November.

Forty percent of Americans say they are better off financially than they were a year ago, and just 19 percent say they are worse off, according to a January survey conducted for The New York Times by the online research firm SurveyMonkey. That’s the most positive that respondents have been about the economy in the three years the survey has been conducted.

Other measures of consumer confidence have likewise shown a strong rebound in recent months after falling last summer amid headlines warning of a looming recession.

Views of the economy remain sharply divided along partisan lines, as they have throughout Mr. Trump’s presidency. That could dampen the impact of the economy on the election because many voters may view economic news through the lens of their existing political preferences.

But recent gains in confidence have been particularly strong among the voters most likely to be swayed by economic news: independents. True independents — those who say they do not lean toward either major party — had the biggest jump in confidence in the new Times survey.

In a recent survey from The Washington Post and ABC News, 60 percent of independents said Mr. Trump was doing a good job with the economy, up from 46 percent in September.

The increase in confidence among independents is a recent development and might not last. And some sources tell a different story: A long-running measure of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan showed on Friday that confidence rose over all in January but fell slightly among independents, although confidence is up sharply among all partisan groups since the fall.

The economy’s performance is swaying some voters. Samuel Knight did not vote for Mr. Trump in 2016 because he and his evangelical Christian family did not like his personal behavior. But he said that if the election were held today, he would pull the lever for Mr. Trump, largely because of the strong economy.

“It’s probably the No. 1 thing that influences my vote,” he said.

Mr. Knight, who runs a start-up in Dallas that makes software for the construction industry, said he was not sure how much credit Mr. Trump deserved for the strong economy. But he said his customers have benefited from the administration’s efforts to ease regulation, and he said he supported the president’s approach on trade, even though it had driven up some costs.

“I think we have the resources to outlast China, hands down,” he said. “I think it’s a smart move.”

Republicans are counting on voters like Mr. Knight to carry Mr. Trump to victory in November. The president routinely promotes strong economic data and the rising stock market in speeches and at rallies.

“Are you better off now than you were three years ago?” he asked on Twitter on Tuesday. “Almost everyone says YES!”

That argument ran into trouble over the summer when turmoil in financial markets and escalating trade tensions with China and other countries led to a surge in news coverage warning of a possible recession. Measures of consumer confidence fell in September and were slow to rebound.
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I seriously doubt it hurts his chances at all, but should be interesting to see how Senate races shape up as others have mentioned. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
Yeah, not sure. I'm a huge believer in confirmation bias but not sure this is it.

I think this poll, even as small as it is, is interesting with regard to independents.

I found this NYTimes article very interesting. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/business/economy/independent-voters-economy.html
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Every poll of independents shows Trump losing head to head to most of the Democrats in the states that count. I think those numbers will hold up, unless Bernie wins the nomination. But we’ll see. I try to be optimistic about this stuff, it would be a horrible, miserable thing for our country if Trump wins a 2nd term.  So I won’t believe it will happen until it does. You gotta stay positive! 

 
NorvilleBarnes said:
Wow. Interesting poll results. For the most part, the only people who think it hurt him are those who don't support him.
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It did not help him with anyone, those that supported him were always going to keep supporting him - they dont care what he does because they think he's on their team.  

It did not hurt him with anyone that already knew he was a corrupt grifter. It did influence actual independents. A meaningful amount? :shrug:

Despite all that it was still the right thing to do. And ultimately that's all that matters. 

 
I voted that it hurt him but I don't really like the past tense wording.  I think a lot more information about Trump's role is going to continue to drip out between now and the election and that is what is going to hurt him.   I'm even more convinced that it will hurt the GOP Senators running for re-election.   A few months ago I thought there was almost no chance the Dems would win control of the Senate, now I think there is a fairly decent chance.

 
Joe Bryant said:
For what it's worth, I caught up with one of my friends yesterday who is a Trump supporter. He thinks the impeachment has been a big boost for Trump's chances in 2020. 

In his opinion, it plays right into the "They're not out to get me, they're out to get you" narrative. 
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But those people were already going to vote for Trump, right? And they were already enthusiastic about voting for him, weren't they? I'm having trouble seeing your friend's logic.

 
I have a difficult time seeing how President Trump having well-respected members of his own party such as Senator Lamar Alexander (R-TN) saying his actions “crossed a line” and were ”inappropriate” on top of being impeached by the House help him in an election. However, as TheMagus and bigbottom suggested in their replies above, I’m also shuked as to how President Trump has any support at all, so I’m probably not the person to be answering this question as I’m undoubtedly missing something.

 
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