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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (2 Viewers)

As much as I hate to admit it, this is spot on:

This Is How He Wins

On Monday, the Democratic Party kicked off the 2020 campaign by broadcasting a marathon infomercial for its own administrative incompetence and internecine enmity over every major news channel.

The fine details of the party’s general-election strategy have yet to be determined. But it’s hard to name a prominent anti-Trump message that the Iowa caucuses didn’t undermine. Hoping to sell voters on a return “return to normalcy” and presidential professionalism? Your party just orchestrated a historically abnormal and amateurish fiasco. Planning to paint Trump as a synecdoche for the endemic corruption of American politics? Democrats just gave their most unreliable supporters cause for leveling incendiary allegations of election tampering and egregious graft against the party’s Establishment. Eager to make this race into a referendum on Trump’s opportunistic assaults on liberal democratic norms? Your (former?) front-runner’s surrogates have been sowing doubts about the legitimacy of election results that look bad for them.

Put yourself in the shoes of a low-information swing voter. For all of 2016, every well-credentialed expert and organ of respectable liberal opinion assured you that Donald Trump was an agent of chaos whose election would tank the stock market and sow global disorder. Trump, meanwhile, told you that he was a brilliant businessman who would make great deals to strengthen the economy. You do not consume much news. Or else you take in a discordant cacophony of competing narratives from CNN, Fox News, your liberal aunt and MAGA co-workers. But you do know that the unemployment rate is near half-century lows, and that there are fewer boarded-up retail spaces on the downtown mall, and that wages seem to be rising (however tepidly) even among your less well-off friends, and that your 401(k) is way better off now than it was four years ago.

Which of the aforementioned narratives about Donald Trump would you find more plausible? How about if the party that had told you Trump would be an agent of chaos and gross mismanagement then botched an election because it didn’t consider the possibility that the septuagenarian retirees who staff their caucuses might struggle to use an (untested) app without some training?
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any last second guesses? I'm gonna go with:

1. Sanders

2. Pete

3. Warren

4. Biden

With Sanders/Pete/Warren clumped pretty closely together and Biden fairly far behind.

 
Getzlaf15 said:
zftcg said:
As much as I hate to admit it, this is spot on:

This Is How He Wins
Click to expand...
The rest of the article that you didn't post is just as bad as what you did post.    No way the effects of this go away for a long, long time.
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I'll admit this is possible. but at the same time think about just how fast political news moves these days. I think it is equally as likely that it never gets brought up again by Super Tuesday.

 
The immediate problem with Buttigieg as the moderate candidate is this: he has NO support among Southern blacks. Zero. Will some switch to him? Or stick with Biden? Or go elsewhere?

 
There was a comment reported last night that the college caucuses kind of gets screwed in delegates, which would hurt Bernie.

 
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timschochet said:
The immediate problem with Buttigieg as the moderate candidate is this: he has NO support among Southern blacks. Zero. Will some switch to him? Or stick with Biden? Or go elsewhere?
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An alliance with Stacey Abrams, if that's even possible this early.

 
Phil Elliott said:
And Biden,Klobuchar and Yang had dignifica t losses going from intial round to final round.
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The silver lining in Yang's numbers is that it looks like he had appeal across the different counties, just not very much of it.

Edit: contrast this with Bernie, who appears to "run up the score" in young population centers and didn't gain nearly as many of the nonviable candidates' votes compared to Buttigieg.

 
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Amy is about 100% or more over her pre caucus polling so great over achievement but still probably doesn’t go much farther.

 
hagmania said:
The silver lining in Yang's numbers is that it looks like he had appeal across the different counties, just not very much of it.

Edit: contrast this with Bernie, who appears to "run up the score" in young population centers and didn't gain nearly as many of the nonviable candidates' votes compared to Buttigieg.
Click to expand...
Of course, Bernie with a big "first vote" lead bodes well for him in a primary setting. The realignment vote totals speak to Buttigieg's smart ground game; Mayor Pete managed to train his precinct captains how the process works. I'd look toward Nevada for Buttigieg.

 
Last poll of African-Americans: Joe Biden has 49% support, Buttigieg has zero.

Will these numbers change? If they don't, Biden is still the favorite even after this disaster (and even if he gets crushed in New Hampshire.)

 
timschochet said:
Last poll of African-Americans: Joe Biden has 49% support, Buttigieg has zero.

Will these numbers change? If they don't, Biden is still the favorite even after this disaster (and even if he gets crushed in New Hampshire.)
Click to expand...
I wonder if Pete and Biden swap results but Bernie stays consistently strong state to state.

 
timschochet said:
Last poll of African-Americans: Joe Biden has 49% support, Buttigieg has zero.

Will these numbers change? If they don't, Biden is still the favorite even after this disaster (and even if he gets crushed in New Hampshire.)
Click to expand...
Just to add to this:

I totally get that the Iowa results will have black voters questioning their support for Joe Biden, but then the question becomes, who would they support instead? And that's the question I can't find an answer for. Bernie and Warren are IMO too far left for the typical older southern black voter. That leaves Buttigieg, whom they really don't seem to like, Bloomberg, who introduced stop and frisk in New York, and Klobuchar whom they still don't know.

Which is why I keep returning to Biden being the favorite. It's not that southern blacks love him unconditionally, it's that there's nobody else in the race which I believe they would prefer.

 
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