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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (2 Viewers)

Last poll of African-Americans: Joe Biden has 49% support, Buttigieg has zero.

Will these numbers change? If they don't, Biden is still the favorite even after this disaster (and even if he gets crushed in New Hampshire.)
Another question is how many African-American votes Biden might lose to Sanders.

 
I wonder if Pete and Biden swap results but Bernie stays consistently strong state to state.
And consistently ahead of Warren.  Where is Warren going to pass Sanders?  I at least get the theory behind Pete and Biden, they fight it out.  Biden believes demographically he can make a comeback..  I get the Bloomberg theory as well and the possibility Biden is very weak.  But for Warren, I see her as competing on the left with Bernie and very little hope of overtaking him.  She goes on because she's 3rd, but odds wise to win the nomination she's way down the pecking order in my eyes now.

 
Pete and Klobuchar showing well and Biden not showing well gives me hope for the Democratic party.

Great outcome for the Dems if they can hold off Bernie.

 
I know they're all on the same team anyway and it's all just for show, but I hope the DNC enjoys another 4 from Trump. I feel I have a pretty firm pulse on the Bernie community. Very few are going to move to Pete.

 
Any New Hampshire predictions out there?

Everybody expects Pete to hit a wall in the South still right?

 
Terrible for Biden, but as somebody who wants a moderate to win this, I'm glad to see Pete perform way over expectations.  Aside from the black vote -- not sure if tim has mentioned that or not -- he's a much stronger candidate than Biden.  
In terms of running against Trump, I completely agree.  And personally I would prefer Pete.

But it's a pretty big "aside". Pete has zero support. Which means he's not going to win a single southern state. How does he win the nomination?

And let's not try to hide the elephant in the room. Older black voters don't like Pete Buttigieg. Part of it is his record on race issues in South Bend. But part of it is, unfortunately, because he is gay.

That might be OK if younger black voters liked Pete, but they seem to prefer a progressive candidate like Bernie.

 
One concern is that both progressives (Warren and Sanders) comprise a huge percentage of the delegates and popular vote.   That scares the hell out of me for the future of our country and the Democratic party.

Very happy to see Pete and Klobuchar showing relatively well.  

 
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Any New Hampshire predictions out there?

Everybody expects Pete to hit a wall in the South still right?
Sure. I'm so good at this right?

Bernie in 1st place.

Warren a close second.

Buttigieg third.

Biden out of the top 3 again in 4th, Amy in 5th.

 
I don't know about that.  It seems like a minor plot point now, but they may building toward something.

The Trump Years: Season 4

S4E1: Trump is impeached in the House and tried in the Senate.  John Bolton returns to the public eye with a message for the president.  A respiratory virus emerges in China.

S4E2: The primary season begins.  Trump cruises to victory in Iowa, but a technological snafu throws the Democratic caucuses into chaos.  The Wuhan coronavirus spreads to North America.
You forgot my personal favorite twist in 2020:

@Otis makes a startling discovery when he realizes that eating healthy and exercise does in fact impact health and weight loss.

 
One concern is that both progressives (Warren and Sanders) comprise a huge percentage of the delegates.   That scares me for the future of our country and the Democratic party.

Very happy to see Pete and Klobuchar showing relatively well.  
I've been saying for over ten years that eventually the Democratic Party will go very progressive and the nation will as well. This is inevitable, due to a combination of demographics, the threat of climate change, and the incredible stupidity of the Republican party by pursuing a nativist agenda, even before Donald Trump.

I didn't expect it to be in 2020, and it may mean the re-election of Trump as white conservatives make one last desperate gasp for control.  But that's all it will be: a last gasp. The future belongs to the ideas of Bernie Sanders. Better get used to it. I'm resigned.

 
Good news folks, I missed this.  Apparently the totally unbiased Perez DNC is handling the results. //

Kendall Karson @kendallkarson

One Democratic official I spoke to is being told that the DNC is "taking over" the accounting of results. The official said this that to their knowledge, this has never happened before. We're expecting an announcement from IDP Chair Troy Price at 345 pm CT/ 445 pm ET 

 
I know they're all on the same team anyway and it's all just for show, but I hope the DNC enjoys another 4 from Trump. I feel I have a pretty firm pulse on the Bernie community. Very few are going to move to Pete.
I posted basically the exact same stuff I did here in the big /r/politics Iowa megathread. Immediately two replies:

https://i.imgur.com/R2IuaN7.png

For the record, my response to "progressive purists" was as follows:

Because I believe our nation marches left, and we will get to where we need to be if we can put the stain that is Trumpism behind us. I fully support Bernie's vision, but understand the nation might not be willing to make the full jump yet. Electing a gay president would be another great step toward a more progressive America.

And yes, everyone makes mistakes and I know Pete has made his fair share. I believe he can overcome his faults and be a great leader.

 
I've been saying for over ten years that eventually the Democratic Party will go very progressive and the nation will as well. This is inevitable, due to a combination of demographics, the threat of climate change, and the incredible stupidity of the Republican party by pursuing a nativist agenda, even before Donald Trump.

I didn't expect it to be in 2020, and it may mean the re-election of Trump as white conservatives make one last desperate gasp for control.  But that's all it will be: a last gasp. The future belongs to the ideas of Bernie Sanders. Better get used to it. I'm resigned.
I think the GOP trends left also. The new GOP will be the current moderate Dems.

 
I've been saying for over ten years that eventually the Democratic Party will go very progressive and the nation will as well. This is inevitable, due to a combination of demographics,
The immigrant population is a huge problem, including their influence on politics.   Socialism does not work and they are turning us that way.

It will be the end of our greatness if we don't stop that political trend.

I was a clear Democrat 30 years ago...now it feels like I'm solid right at times.

 
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Good news folks, I missed this.  Apparently the totally unbiased Perez DNC is handling the results. //

Kendall Karson @kendallkarson

One Democratic official I spoke to is being told that the DNC is "taking over" the accounting of results. The official said this that to their knowledge, this has never happened before. We're expecting an announcement from IDP Chair Troy Price at 345 pm CT/ 445 pm ET 
I said you probably needed to relax just a bit with NH coming up, but I don't see how anybody can take these results without a heap of salt. 

 
Good news folks, I missed this.  Apparently the totally unbiased Perez DNC is handling the results. //

Kendall Karson @kendallkarson

One Democratic official I spoke to is being told that the DNC is "taking over" the accounting of results. The official said this that to their knowledge, this has never happened before. We're expecting an announcement from IDP Chair Troy Price at 345 pm CT/ 445 pm ET 
Do you think this will happen on time? 

 
The immigrant population is a huge problem, including their influence on politics.   Socialism does not work and they are turning us that way.

It will be the end of our greatness if we don't stop that political trend.
You're still welcome to be a part of this great nation even after AI and robots take your job. :hifive:

 
I posted basically the exact same stuff I did here in the big /r/politics Iowa megathread. Immediately two replies:

https://i.imgur.com/R2IuaN7.png

For the record, my response to "progressive purists" was as follows:
That's a nice idea, but at this point the younger people all in on Bernie don't care for the superficial jumps in what you are calling "progressivism". Just because we put a gay individual or a woman as the face of our nation doesn't make it progressive. At the end of the day, it's about policy, and Pete is certainly not that. It's Bernie, and maybe Liz to a lesser degree. That's it.

 
I've been saying for over ten years that eventually the Democratic Party will go very progressive and the nation will as well. This is inevitable, due to a combination of demographics, the threat of climate change, and the incredible stupidity of the Republican party by pursuing a nativist agenda, even before Donald Trump.

I didn't expect it to be in 2020, and it may mean the re-election of Trump as white conservatives make one last desperate gasp for control.  But that's all it will be: a last gasp. The future belongs to the ideas of Bernie Sanders. Better get used to it. I'm resigned.
I'm reluctant to make long-run predictions about politics because they usually end up being wrong -- in 1965 nobody would have predicted that Goldwaterism would take control of the GOP and win multiple elections easily -- but my take is a little different.  I see the parties becoming even more racially aligned, with the GOP being the white party and the Democrats being the party of everybody else.  Republicans will follow their European peers by embracing a welfare state model, which sort of negates the Sanders effect.  In other words, both parties will be more economically left than they are now.  The difference will be that Democrats will still be a little further left economically than Republicans, and identetarian issues will be more of a defining difference.

 
This might be the worst news yet for Democrats honestly. If they can’t even reach 2016 levels when they were shooting for 2008 numbers, yikes.

We don’t know much about the official Iowa caucus results just yet. But one thing we do know is that, based on early results, turnout this year is reportedly on pace to match the 2016 Democratic turnout.

If true, that might be a bad sign for Democrats. In 2016, there was less enthusiasm around the Democratic race — in large part because Hillary Clinton was widely seen as the likely nominee — and about 170,000 people turned out in the Iowa caucuses. That was down from 2008, when excitement around figures like Barack Obama and Clinton led to a record attendance of 240,000.

As Sean Collins reported for Vox, turnout was expected to reach similar numbers as 2008 this year, given the excitement Democratic voters have expressed about the 2020 contest: 

State and national polls of Democrats, likely voters, and likely caucus-goers have shown an incredible degree of excitement around the 2020 primary for months — a January Quinnipiac University national poll, for instance, found 85 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters saying they are either “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote in the primary’s contests. 

But if turnout is down, that could be a bad sign for Democrats’ prospects in November: To beat President Donald Trump, they need Democrats to show up to the polls.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/4/21122359/iowa-democratic-caucuses-results-turnout

 
I'm reluctant to make long-run predictions about politics because they usually end up being wrong -- in 1965 nobody would have predicted that Goldwaterism would take control of the GOP and win multiple elections easily -- but my take is a little different.  I see the parties becoming even more racially aligned, with the GOP being the white party and the Democrats being the party of everybody else.  Republicans will follow their European peers by embracing a welfare state model, which sort of negates the Sanders effect.  In other words, both parties will be more economically left than they are now.  The difference will be that Democrats will still be a little further left economically than Republicans, and identetarian issues will be more of a defining difference.
I think this is accurate.

Do you agree as result of this move to the left, America will lose economic power and its influence over the world, relative to what it is now?

 
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Why did they release these results at 62% reporting? Why not 10%? 30%? Or wait until they had 100%? Why aren't the remaining results trickling in now? If anyone other than Buttigieg wins now it's not going to be a good look.

 
Why did they release these results at 62% reporting? Why not 10%? 30%? Or wait until they had 100%? Why aren't the remaining results trickling in now? If anyone other than Buttigieg wins now it's not going to be a good look.
I don't think its a conspiracy, I think they're just trying to release the results in a fashion that is accurate and that makes sense.   

 
That's a nice idea, but at this point the younger people all in on Bernie don't care for the superficial jumps in what you are calling "progressivism". Just because we put a gay individual or a woman as the face of our nation doesn't make it progressive. At the end of the day, it's about policy, and Pete is certainly not that. It's Bernie, and maybe Liz to a lesser degree. That's it.
Hell yeah man, I'm glad people younger than me are fired up about policy.

If we rile up enough of them to vote we'll make those big jumps.

 
I posted basically the exact same stuff I did here in the big /r/politics Iowa megathread. Immediately two replies:

https://i.imgur.com/R2IuaN7.png

For the record, my response to "progressive purists" was as follows:
I don't think you have to be progressive to think his handling of the South Bend PD was suspect.  Nor do you have to be one to think his national security background at the Truman Center and endorsement by the foreign policy blob is evidence his views are inline with the security state.  He even tweeted his support for Juan Guaido, the self-declared fake president in Venezuela.  The fact that establishment insiders, corporate news pundits, and virtually every billionaire under the sun is in love with this guy are an indication that he will serve the most powerful in this country.  

This same group hates Sanders.  And they're in love with Pete.  By all means support who you like, but there is a 100% night & day contrast between the two of them. 

 
I don't think its a conspiracy, I think they're just trying to release the results in a fashion that is accurate and that makes sense.   
I agree but it also gives Trump even more leverage if he loses the election to call BS. He had threatened it before and now he has a solid example of Democratic election shenanigans. This all seems headed for disaster. 

 
I agree but it also gives Trump even more leverage if he loses the election to call BS. He had threatened it before and now he has a solid example of Democratic election shenanigans. This all seems headed for disaster. 
I think they've recovered somewhat well here...and trust me, I'm not a fan of the Democratic party.

 
Why did they release these results at 62% reporting? Why not 10%? 30%? Or wait until they had 100%? Why aren't the remaining results trickling in now? If anyone other than Buttigieg wins now it's not going to be a good look.
The Iowa Democratic Party is incompetent.  That's been the consistent theme of the past 24 hours.

 
This might be the worst news yet for Democrats honestly. If they can’t even reach 2016 levels when they were shooting for 2008 numbers, yikes.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/4/21122359/iowa-democratic-caucuses-results-turnout
Not a good number but I'll wait to see some other states' figures before sounding the alarm -- Democrats have become significantly weaker in rural areas over the last 12 years, so it doesn't necessarily surprise me that they can't reach 2008 levels in a predominantly rural state like IA. 

 
I think they've recovered somewhat well here...and trust me, I'm not a fan of the Democratic party.
Maybe but I don't think a reasonable take matters much. Most people are going to remember, the Democratic Primary in Iowa was fishy and Trump will be sure to point that over and over. 

 
Why did they release these results at 62% reporting? Why not 10%? 30%? Or wait until they had 100%? Why aren't the remaining results trickling in now? If anyone other than Buttigieg wins now it's not going to be a good look.
Can it get worse?

 
Am I envisioning a caucus correctly, where I burst into wherever my local precinct is and proudly yell “Show me your Pete-rs!” and start high fiving Pete supporters as we congregate in our ever growing clique?

That sounds way better than a ballot box, honestly 

 
People didn't vote for Biden because he is a horrible candidate.  He always has been.

  This has nothing to do with Trump.  Trump didn't force the Biden family to make money off Joe's position.  They did that.  Trump only brought it to the nation's attention and most people think it stinks!

"Biggest threat" is laughable.  
What would be fantastic is if Trump helps put the final nail in Biden who he thought may be his biggest competition, only to lose to whoever steps in.

 
The immediate problem with Buttigieg as the moderate candidate is this: he has NO support among Southern blacks. Zero. Will some switch to him? Or stick with Biden? Or go elsewhere?
Practicality speaking, is this really a problem? 

 
Practicality speaking, is this really a problem? 
not in my opinion, Trump is winning the South...all that really matters is how Pete would do in the swing states of Florida, Michigan, etc...my understanding is that is a TBD.

 

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