We don’t know much about the official Iowa caucus results just yet. But one thing we do know is that, based on early results, turnout this year is reportedly on pace to match the 2016 Democratic turnout.
If true, that might be a bad sign for Democrats. In 2016, there was less enthusiasm around the Democratic race — in large part because Hillary Clinton was widely seen as the likely nominee — and about 170,000 people turned out in the Iowa caucuses. That was down from 2008, when excitement around figures like Barack Obama and Clinton led to a record attendance of 240,000.
As Sean Collins reported for Vox, turnout was expected to reach similar numbers as 2008 this year, given the excitement Democratic voters have expressed about the 2020 contest:
State and national polls of Democrats, likely voters, and likely caucus-goers have shown an incredible degree of excitement around the 2020 primary for months — a January Quinnipiac University national poll, for instance, found 85 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters saying they are either “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote in the primary’s contests.
But if turnout is down, that could be a bad sign for Democrats’ prospects in November: To beat President Donald Trump, they need Democrats to show up to the polls.