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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (4 Viewers)

The fixation on SDEs (hell, the existence of SDEs) confuses me. National delegates are the only ones that matter for the convention, and right now the national delegate allocation would be Pete 10, Sanders 10, Warren 4. If you don't want to look at delegates, you can see that Sanders is winning both the first and second votes. But Pete is the agreed upon leader right now because he has the most SDEs, which don't seem to matter for anything?

FTR I'm not implying there's a grand conspiracy against Bernie, I know Iowa has always determined the winner this way. It's just totally bizarre. 

 
ren hoek said:
Good news folks, I missed this.  Apparently the totally unbiased Perez DNC is handling the results. //

Kendall Karson @kendallkarson

One Democratic official I spoke to is being told that the DNC is "taking over" the accounting of results. The official said this that to their knowledge, this has never happened before. We're expecting an announcement from IDP Chair Troy Price at 345 pm CT/ 445 pm ET 
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Your conspiracy theories on this are better than listening to my boss talk about Area 51.

 
timschochet said:
Sure. I'm so good at this right?

Bernie in 1st place.

Warren a close second.

Buttigieg third.

Biden out of the top 3 again in 4th, Amy in 5th.
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Bernie will beat Warren in NH by 10-15%. It could get ugly if sweet meat Pete gains traction 

 
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MAC_32 said:
Tim said southern blacks. Tripp's response is why I asked. No southern state matters in November. 
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I know, but he won't make it to November if he doesn't have black support in the primary. 

Also, FL/GA/NC may not be the key swing states in the general election, but it's not like any Dem can afford to write them off at the outset of the campaign.

 
zftcg said:
I know, but he won't make it to November if he doesn't have black support in the primary. 

Also, FL/GA/NC may not be the key swing states in the general election, but it's not like any Dem can afford to write them off at the outset of the campaign.
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I wouldn't lump Florida in with the south. It's like a completely different country. 

Trump isn't losing NC. 

Georgia probably isn't ready to go blue, but I understand that argument. 

 
Just so we're all on the same page here:

-Tom Perez packed the DNC with establishment ghouls, health insurance execs, prowar think tank chickenhawks, people with an open and obvious hatred against a candidate in the race: https://www.salon.com/2020/01/27/are-tom-perez-and-the-dnc-preparing-for-a-battle-against-bernie-sanders-and-the-left_partner/.  Read Kevin Gosztola's thread.  

-ACRONYM (reminiscent of Google's ALPHABET, like a signal toward the alphabet agencies) who "launched" (and is now merely an "investor" in) Shadow Inc., has since distanced themselves from the developer.  Tara McGowan, ACRONYM CEO, tweeted this image of the Shadow team.  Notice the little Hillary stickers on their Macbooks.  Here she is tweeting her support for Pete's national organizing director.  Here was her reaction when Buttigieg announced he was running for president.  

Look, I get it.  I don't want to suggest there is a conspiracy at work here.  It's not fun to be painted as a conspiracy theorist.  And I don't want to suggest they are lying about the results.  But how have the results so far been reported?  I wonder, are the 62.9% of reported precincts from predominantly wealthy counties, where Buttigieg tends to perform exceedingly well?  Is it odd that they reported 62.9%, and not all of them, with no apparent time frame for when the other 37.1% will be reported? 

Are we seriously supposed to trust these people, from a political establishment which has made it clear it is running as much against a single candidate as it is against Trump, as wholly neutral arbiters of this democratic process?  

From top to bottom, the party is littered with these people.  The fact that they chose this consultant outfit with very little credible work to their names, when there are a gazillion developers that would jump at the opportunity to make a killer application that could easily handle a program on this scale, and with better security, speaks to how the Democratic Party apparatus hasn't changed at all since 2016.  It is hard to have faith in the process that is playing out here.  

 
caustic said:
That's awfully bearish on Biden. He's been 2nd in the last eight NH polls.
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I think it's pretty reasonable to be down on Biden.  It's not like he under-performed in Iowa by just a little.  He completely cratered.  He's a good person and I wish he had run in 2016, but I think primary voters are probably right that he's just too old at this point.  I'd still support him over Trump because I have every confidence that he'd assemble a good staff.  

 
MAC_32 said:
I wouldn't lump Florida in with the south. It's like a completely different country. 

Trump isn't losing NC. 

Georgia probably isn't ready to go blue, but I understand that argument. 
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Point is, I wouldn't want to cede any of those states off the bat. You never know how the campaign will develop, and if polls show you doing unexpectedly well somewhere, you want to be able to make a late push.

But again, my argument is more about the primary than the general election.

 
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zftcg said:
Point is, I wouldn't want to cede any of those states off the bat. You never know how the campaign will develop, and if polls show you doing unexpectedly well somewhere, you want to be able to make a late push.

But again, my argument is more about the primary than the general election.
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I only care about the general. Whoever gets there gets there. And whoever it is will be flawed. Can their flaws win? I don't see how likely losses south of the Mason Dixon line matter. 

 
Apologies if this has been asked but how does Sanders lead Pete in 2nd round voting but trails in delegate count?  Is that due to the stupid coin flips?

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I think it's pretty reasonable to be down on Biden.  It's not like he under-performed in Iowa by just a little.  He completely cratered.  He's a good person and I wish he had run in 2016, but I think primary voters are probably right that he's just too old at this point.  I'd still support him over Trump because I have every confidence that he'd assemble a good staff.  
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I guess we'll see -- this was a bad performance for Biden but some of the good IA polls had been showing warning signs for a while. His NH polling has been relatively sturdy. Certainly possible that his poor performance here changes some minds up north, but who knows how big that effect will be (especially given the uncertainty surrounding these results).

 
TripItUp said:
I think this is accurate.

Do you agree as result of this move to the left, America will lose economic power and its influence over the world, relative to what it is now?
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I think you could argue that America has lost some of its economic power and its influence over the world already, simply due to technology, social media, and trade opening the world's borders.  America is no longer that special flower.  We'll still wield plenty of influence, but the cracks are showing.

 
caustic said:
The fixation on SDEs (hell, the existence of SDEs) confuses me. National delegates are the only ones that matter for the convention, and right now the national delegate allocation would be Pete 10, Sanders 10, Warren 4. If you don't want to look at delegates, you can see that Sanders is winning both the first and second votes. But Pete is the agreed upon leader right now because he has the most SDEs, which don't seem to matter for anything?

FTR I'm not implying there's a grand conspiracy against Bernie, I know Iowa has always determined the winner this way. It's just totally bizarre. 
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The DNC wanted to deny Sanders the win...they succeeded 

 
Steve Tasker said:
I think you could argue that America has lost some of its economic power and its influence over the world already, simply due to technology, social media, and trade opening the world's borders.  America is no longer that special flower.  We'll still wield plenty of influence, but the cracks are showing.
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sure, but does this socialism trend futher or hasten that along?

And why is it being overlooked by the younger generation pushing for progressive candidates?

 
Pretty depressing that moderate Dems are left with this lot.

Biden - was not good at running for Prez when he was in his prime.

Pete - he's great speaker and all but a Mayor from South Bend Indiana.  

Klobuchar - like getting excited about purchasing a Camry.

For ####s sake Dems.

 
AAABatteries said:
Apologies if this has been asked but how does Sanders lead Pete in 2nd round voting but trails in delegate count?  Is that due to the stupid coin flips?
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2nd alignment or (2nd round) is just a way to get more people who weren’t viable to support your candidate. So when your candidate (Biden, Yang, etc.) poops out in the 1st round, or another candidate speaker really changes your opinion, you go to that group. Then after that is final alignment. It used to be just be one round of speakers making their pitch, but the DNC added all these layers of stupidity this cycle with the rule change.
 

Oh and I guess they counted several of 2nd alignment lines wrong. So I’m sure that will be the next but story in this debacle.

 
zftcg said:
I know, but he won't make it to November if he doesn't have black support in the primary. 

Also, FL/GA/NC may not be the key swing states in the general election, but it's not like any Dem can afford to write them off at the outset of the campaign.
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When is the last time Florida wasn’t a key swing state? 

 
The General said:
Pretty depressing that moderate Dems are left with this lot.

Biden - was not good at running for Prez when he was in his prime.

Pete - he's great speaker and all but a Mayor from South Bend Indiana.  

Klobuchar - like getting excited about purchasing a Camry.

For ####s sake Dems.
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A new Camry is good enough for me. Less and less companies are offering sedans these days.

 
MAC_32 said:
I wouldn't lump Florida in with the south. It's like a completely different country. 

Trump isn't losing NC. 

Georgia probably isn't ready to go blue, but I understand that argument. 
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The Democratic primary voters are over 50% black in a lot of the southern states. You cannot win the Democratic primary with your black support at 0%. It would be close to mathematically impossible. That is Tim's point (over and over 😉).

 
TheMagus said:
The Democratic primary voters are over 50% black in a lot of the southern states. You cannot win the Democratic primary with your black support at 0%. It would be close to mathematically impossible. That is Tim's point (over and over 😉).
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Then he won't make it to the general, so wouldn't that then make Tim's concern meaningless? 

 
The General said:
Pretty depressing that moderate Dems are left with this lot.

Biden - was not good at running for Prez when he was in his prime.

Pete - he's great speaker and all but a Mayor from South Bend Indiana.  

Klobuchar - like getting excited about purchasing a Camry.

For ####s sake Dems.
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Aptly put on Klobuchar. Americans value flash over substance, which is why Amy wasn't ever going to win. And our representatives are just a function of our values. 

 
MAC_32 said:
Then he won't make it to the general, so wouldn't that then make Tim's concern meaningless? 
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I don't want to speak for Tim, but I'm pretty sure he is talking about the fact that Joe is likely going to be the nominee because of southern black support (and wants him to be because he thinks a progressive will lose in the general). So this Pete uprising has a bit of a ceiling unless Pete improves his minority support numbers. 

 
The General said:
Pretty depressing that moderate Dems are left with this lot.

Biden - was not good at running for Prez when he was in his prime.

Pete - he's great speaker and all but a Mayor from South Bend Indiana.  

Klobuchar - like getting excited about purchasing a Camry.

For ####s sake Dems.
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I laughed at this, but then thought "Wait, but Minnesotans sincerely like her," but then thought "Wait, but Minnesotans are exactly the kind of people who get all excited about purchasing a Camry."

 
AAABatteries said:
Apologies if this has been asked but how does Sanders lead Pete in 2nd round voting but trails in delegate count?  Is that due to the stupid coin flips?
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Rural counties get a disproportionate number of delegates in Iowa's system. 538 mentioned that in counties with the lowest attendee:delegate ratio, Pete is doing the best. In counties with the highest attendee:delegate ratio, Bernie is doing best. 

 
They might not release any more results tonight? Why are they not just releasing results as they certify them? What is up with this arbitrary rollout? This is absurd.

 
The General said:
Pretty depressing that moderate Dems are left with this lot.

Biden - was not good at running for Prez when he was in his prime.

Pete - he's great speaker and all but a Mayor from South Bend Indiana.  

Klobuchar - like getting excited about purchasing a Camry.

For ####s sake Dems.
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Seriously. When your only choices are this group or Trump (to quote Easy Wind) “You know you’ve done stepped in some ####”.  
 

Is this seriously the best the greatest country on earth with 300+ million people can produce? Unbelievable. 

 
dkp993 said:
Seriously. When your only choices are this group or Trump (to quote Easy Wind) “You know you’ve done stepped in some ####”.  
 

Is this seriously the best the greatest country on earth with 300+ million people can produce? Unbelievable. 
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No matter what you think about him this is why Bloomberg joined the race.

 
The General said:
Pretty depressing that moderate Dems are left with this lot.

Biden - was not good at running for Prez when he was in his prime.

Pete - he's great speaker and all but a Mayor from South Bend Indiana.  

Klobuchar - like getting excited about purchasing a Camry.

For ####s sake Dems.
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Don’t forget Bloomberg.

 
Nipsey said:
They might not release any more results tonight? Why are they not just releasing results as they certify them? What is up with this arbitrary rollout? This is absurd.
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The DNC is either incompetent, stupid, or trying to control the narrative.  Take your pick.  All of the above is also an option.  

 
ShamrockPride said:
How about a clearly rigged coin flip right in front of camera and people? Notice he doesn't say Buttigieg until he peaks and then manually turns the coin to where it "should" be.

https://twitter.com/devinedianakin/status/1224829313364779008?s=19
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Clearly rigged?  More like the most incompetent kid at flipping a coin ever. That was a cluster from start to finish.  But if that is evidence of the dnc wanting to deny sanders the win...you will meed a much stringer case than that.

 
sho nuff said:
Clearly rigged?  More like the most incompetent kid at flipping a coin ever. That was a cluster from start to finish.  But if that is evidence of the dnc wanting to deny sanders the win...you will meed a much stringer case than that.
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Explain what he's doing turning over the coin after he's placed it in his hand. Please, I'm pretty confused. Maybe you could clear things up for me.

 
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