Snoopy
Footballguy
As school standardized tests were based in Iowa, I wonder if they screwed up my score and put me in the wrong placement.
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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter BassNBrew
- Start date
Came here to post that. It's kind of silly that people are still arguing over delegates at this point. Iowa represents something like 1% of total delegates to be awarded in the primaries. Its main impact is in driving narratives, but those are pretty much set by now. Pete and Bernie basically tied for first, followed by Warren, Biden and Klobuchar. None of that is going to change going forward.
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
Several others also have said Iowa is about momentum and claiming victory regardless of the margin; and not the actual delegates.
The General
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Why are the enemies of the Electoral College standing for this?
caustic
Footballguy
NYT: What Went Wrong for Joe Biden in Iowa
Does not paint a pretty picture of his campaign organization there. Also highlights some of the enthusiasm issues we all kind of knew about.
Does not paint a pretty picture of his campaign organization there. Also highlights some of the enthusiasm issues we all kind of knew about.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
TheMagus
Footballguy
I don't think anyone is standing for this and is probably why Tom Perez and the DNC went there to intervene. There aren't many fans of the caucus - Hillary has actually spoken out against caucuses as being anti-democratic in the past, even when she won them. I'm pretty confident that 1. Iowa will not go first again for the foreseeable future and 2. this is the death of the caucus, at least on the D side.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Buttigieg obviously knew he had won or nearly won when he gave that speech. Glad to know he wasn't just puffering.
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Phil Elliott
Footballguy
According to the article, the second largest bounce expected is the Iowa caucus, with Super Tuesday the largest expected bounce!
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AAABatteries
Footballguy
I'm not going to force feed myself a steak at 4:30 just to save a couple bucks!
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
I always liked the idea of the caucuses. They use to talk about them being held at people’s homes and they would have “neighborhood discussions” and try to persuade people to represent their candidate. Maybe some of the rural ones still occur at homes. Sounded like a real grass roots effort. I know there has been a lot of complaints about people not being able to attend them (might be working, etc) which is why they set up the “satellite” caucuses.
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AAABatteries
Footballguy
Ok to now list winners and losers?
My take:
Winners: Pete, Sanders - and probably in that order. The impressive thing about Pete's win is the organization. Sanders just keeps showing that the idea that he isn't electable just doesn't jive with results and polling.
Losers: Biden, Steyer - Biden is the easy biggest loser. He has to show more life in the next two of South Carolina may not be able to revive him. Time for Steyer to drop out - we have the billionaire replacement already running
Holding Steady: Warren, Klobuchar, Yang, Bloomberg - I was tempted to put Warren in the losers column but I think that's a little unfair. Amy did fine and is probably happy with the results. The problem for her is I just don't see a path to the nomination in this crowded field. Yang did better than I expected but is still a long-shot at best. I hope he doesn't drop out yet though as he brings some fresh ideas and a new voice. Don't feel like making a separate category for Bloomberg. Honestly, things would be shaping up better if Biden would drop out and Bloomberg moved in to that centrist role. But I don't like the idea of someone buying the election and that's what this feels like.
My take:
Winners: Pete, Sanders - and probably in that order. The impressive thing about Pete's win is the organization. Sanders just keeps showing that the idea that he isn't electable just doesn't jive with results and polling.
Losers: Biden, Steyer - Biden is the easy biggest loser. He has to show more life in the next two of South Carolina may not be able to revive him. Time for Steyer to drop out - we have the billionaire replacement already running
Holding Steady: Warren, Klobuchar, Yang, Bloomberg - I was tempted to put Warren in the losers column but I think that's a little unfair. Amy did fine and is probably happy with the results. The problem for her is I just don't see a path to the nomination in this crowded field. Yang did better than I expected but is still a long-shot at best. I hope he doesn't drop out yet though as he brings some fresh ideas and a new voice. Don't feel like making a separate category for Bloomberg. Honestly, things would be shaping up better if Biden would drop out and Bloomberg moved in to that centrist role. But I don't like the idea of someone buying the election and that's what this feels like.
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Sam Quentin
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Forgot to tell everybody that I went ahead and did the coin flip on this and Bernie won. 26% to 26%. That's a wrap folks.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Hey @BassNBrew - thoughts on just making this the 2020 Caucus/Primary thread? Wanted to start discussing New Hampshire.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
So how's this work now, Google is showing 11 each to Pete/Been and 5 to Liz. Where do these last 14 delegates come from and who do they go to?
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
Obviously I don’t agree. A caucus in February in Iowa is going to bring in motivated voters. For Democrats, that means progressives. I don’t think it’s at all reflective of the way people vote in November.
In addition my understanding is that Bernie didn’t produce new voters this time around. That’s very problematic. His entire argument for beating Trump is that he will get new voters to go the polls.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
That’s an impressive anecdote but from what I’ve been hearing on the news the overall numbers did not go up. In fact, they seem to be little down from 2016- which is not just bad for Bernie but for Democrats in general. Do you have evidence to the contrary?
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
I don’t but unless you somehow think this going to be indicative of the other 49 states....I’m not really worried.
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ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Officially there will be no further results tonight.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
3/4 satellite districts are in. The last one left is between 5-11 (& some change) delegates. If >600 people, then it's the 11 delegates. This district is largely made up of Spanish speakers and POC immigrants. Bernie is looking strong down the stretch.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Part of being electable is getting the nomination - Bernie showed last time he was close - it won’t surprise me if he has the delegate lead going in to the convention. I’m not saying he would win a contested convention - he probably won’t - and I’m not saying he definitely beats Trump but the idea that he’s not electable seems laughable at this point. You know who doesn’t seem electable? The guy you’ve been screaming about being the most electable - Biden. You just assume people are scared of Bernie - they aren’t.
msommer
Footballguy
Personally I think the S word will sink Sanders with independents. He'll need a lot of young people to show up to offset that.
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Take notice of those obsessing over the delegates and the "Bernie's getting screwed" narrative and consider the source.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
It's going to be awesome when the very last precincts to report put Sanders over the top on delegates. I'm sure Bernie supporters will take that in stride.
Edit: Bonus points if those precincts manage to delay their reporting to Friday late afternoon.
Edit: Bonus points if those precincts manage to delay their reporting to Friday late afternoon.
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caustic
Footballguy
Earlier I mentioned to @IvanKaramazov that Biden’s polling in NH had been better than in IA, so there’s still a chance for him to come back with a solid 2nd place finish next week.
Well, the cracks are starting to show now. Here are the first two post-Iowa NH polls:
Sanders 31%
Buttigieg 21%
Biden 12%
Warren 12%
Klobuchar 11%
Sanders 25%
Buttigieg 19%
Biden 12%
Warren 11%
Klobuchar 6%
Pete is up and Biden is down, which is great news for Sanders.
Well, the cracks are starting to show now. Here are the first two post-Iowa NH polls:
Sanders 31%
Buttigieg 21%
Biden 12%
Warren 12%
Klobuchar 11%
Sanders 25%
Buttigieg 19%
Biden 12%
Warren 11%
Klobuchar 6%
Pete is up and Biden is down, which is great news for Sanders.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
prefontaine
Footballguy
Actually think that's terrible news for Sanders. Biden has apparently had trouble raising funds and Pete and Amy are surging in his lane which is going to carve into his donor base. Add the Bloomberg factor and he's in trouble.
He may be done early, whether officially or not. What's happening in NH could happen nationally very quickly. He's a terrible campaigner and now he's lost the inevitability, opening the door for others to step into. And those voters aren't migrating to Bernie.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
If NH polling is more or less right, it's shaping up to be a two-horse race, with Bloomberg potentially making it three from Super Tuesday forward.
If those results hold Dems should strong arm Biden, Warren, and Klobuchar out of the race immediately after NH. Buttigieg likely picks up more of that support than Sanders.
If those results hold Dems should strong arm Biden, Warren, and Klobuchar out of the race immediately after NH. Buttigieg likely picks up more of that support than Sanders.
sho nuff
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
caustic
Footballguy
My take is that if Biden totally collapses, Bloomberg is still there to fracture the moderate vote and Pete will be an easy mark in the south for reasons tim can explain.
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