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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (3 Viewers)

Conventional political theory has always been more people show up to vote for something than show up to vote against something.  I guess come November we will find out if that's accurate
No we won’t. 

Because it is accurate and will continue to be accurate as a conventional rule- but Donald Trump defies convention. This time, and this time only, more people will show up to vote against. 

 
No we won’t. 

Because it is accurate and will continue to be accurate as a conventional rule- but Donald Trump defies convention. This time, and this time only, more people will show up to vote against. 
Good luck with that against Trump.  The Dems need to give people something to vote for.  That's one thing Bernie offers, whether you agree with him or not.  I don't believe in his policies but I admit he's putting forward something people can vote for if they want it. 

 
Sounds like 30% haven’t decide which candidate they are voting for as of today. 
Pathetic honestly. If you're this indecisive as a voter that you don't know what you're doing within 24 hours of a primary/election, please don't vote. There's no way you can make an informed decision in that time.

 
Sounds like 30% haven’t decide which candidate they are voting for as of today. 
That might be relatively normal? Primary voters are far more likely to change their mind than GE voters. With a large field like this year, a lot of times people start out using lane theory to sift through candidates. Ideological lanes, gender lanes and racial lanes are more important early in the primary cycle, while electability / unifier lanes become more important late in the primary season.

By the time the general comes around, most people have a much clearer idea of what matters to them most. 

 
Voting starts/ends in NH at Dixville Notch:

Sanders - 1

Mayor Pete - 1

Bloomberg Dem - 2

Bloomberg GOP - 1

Trump GOP - 0

 
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After the first three towns that usually vote at midnight:

(Popular vote)

Amy - 8

Sanders - 4

Warren - 4

Yang - 3

Mayor Pete - 2

Bloomberg - 2

Biden - 2

Gabbard - 1

Steyer - 1

 
With the special accommodations the DNC is giving Bloomberg, the DNC is continuing to lose cred.   But I agree with you it will be entertaining.
Bloomberg is polling at approximately the same level as Elizabeth Warren.  There's no good justification for having her on the debate stage while excluding Bloomberg.  Having him participate isn't a "special accommodation" -- it's a recognition by the DNC that the arbitrary metrics they put in place originally were poorly-conceived and in need of fixing.  

 
Bloomberg is polling at approximately the same level as Elizabeth Warren.  There's no good justification for having her on the debate stage while excluding Bloomberg.  Having him participate isn't a "special accommodation" -- it's a recognition by the DNC that the arbitrary metrics they put in place originally were poorly-conceived and in need of fixing.  
Yeah I don't get this special accommodation angle. The candidates should want to debate him before he potentially runs them over on Super Tuesday. I have seen ads from Sanders the past few days in Colorado. 

 
David Sirota

@davidsirota

·

7h

Early results on New Hampshire primary day: we can now project that Bernie Sanders has suffered big losses in all cable TV green rooms. Losses appear to be particularly severe in the key MSNBC precincts.
I legit feel as though I need to watch Fox to get the least biased primary coverage. It's awful.

 
I'm surprised how consistently Amy is coming in 3rd. She didn't really stand out to me any more than normal on Friday night.
I didn't get to watch the entire debate but I thought her closing statement was the best of the bunch. Seems like those final words may have stuck with people.

 
Iowa and New Ham[hire are two of the whitest states, I'd wait until South Carolina before calling him done. Poor showing there and he's in big trouble.
Someone on CNN made a good point - everybody keeps talking about the black vote for Biden, which is important but it appears that white people don't like him and that wasn't expected.  He can't win with just black voters voting for him.  I think there was an assumption that he would get a certain level of white voters and he's not getting it.  I'm not ready to say he's done but he's pretty close. 

 
This is bad for Bernie, right?  Shouldn’t Sanders be pulling way more than 28% in NH. This reads to me like moderate Dems are out in force. 

 
Someone on CNN made a good point - everybody keeps talking about the black vote for Biden, which is important but it appears that white people don't like him and that wasn't expected.  He can't win with just black voters voting for him.  I think there was an assumption that he would get a certain level of white voters and he's not getting it.  I'm not ready to say he's done but he's pretty close. 
I think we will quickly see Biden’s strength in the black vote to fade quickly. His early dominance may be due to being the preferred of the ‘known’ candidates and because he was viewed as the best to take down Trump. I think with his poor performances and Pete and Amy performing well, they are going to start pulling support directly from Biden.

 
This is bad for Bernie, right?  Shouldn’t Sanders be pulling way more than 28% in NH. This reads to me like moderate Dems are out in force. 
A guy they had on MSNBC pointed out that the GOP in NH was behind a change in voter laws that made it a lot harder for college students to vote (lots more hoops to jump through). That surely hurts him. But also it's hard to predict how these shake out with so many candidates. I think 28% is pretty in line with polling though.

 

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