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People were talking about who has the best chance in the general if they got the nomination. The "if" makes it a head-to-head bet. Such bets are available at Oddshark (though it passes you through to BetOnline for placing the bet). The note at Oddshark says "Matchup must occur for action."
Kind of an odd tangent but IK linked sportsbook style future odds for the general for all candidates. -135, +700, +1000, +2600, etc. I see those future hth bets you're taking about.
I see them (and the actual page on betonline with the other candidates) but IK was not referring to those. He was arguing Klobuchar would have better odds to defeat Trump than Bernie would. The odds on that page don't back what he was saying so I'm assuming he wasn't referencing those odds. Not that those numbers mean anything anyway.
Better odds to defeat Trump given the nomination. That means head-to-head. He also said "betting markets." My guess is that IK isn't intimately familiar with bookmakers and betting markets and linked to the first place he found some odds. He's right that betting markets favor Klobuchar's electability in the general over Bernie's (though he didn't link to one). See BetFair and PredictIt and do the exercise described in the "Electability" thread.
In those head to head odds Bernie is something like even where Klobuchar is +140. They refute the point he was making so giving him the benefit of the doubt I'm assuming he was not referring to those wagers. I know what you're saying here but you're the only person talking about betting markets (I think).
I'm one of these people. I know several hundred of these types. Took risks, built businesses. Lived the American Dream No way do I want to see free 4 year education for all. Why? because anything given away for free devalues it in a tremendous way. No way do I want to see student loan debt forgiven. You took out a loan, pay it back. What about all those that have sacrificed and paid it back already? Or refinanced out of govt loan?Todem said:
Read IK's post. He explicitly said "betting markets." Then he (accidentally, I presume) linked to a bookmaker instead.
Polling is awful. CBS had Biden at 17% two days ago. He got 9. They had Amy at 12%, she got 20%.
The shift in federal spending from urban poor to suburban and rural middle class since 1995 would seem to be evidence to the contrary. Add in tax expenditures and the shift is even more obvious.
student debt loan forgiven would benefit everyone in the long run, huge boost to the economy. seems like an odd criteria.
"Our simulations show that student debt cancellation results in an increase in GDP, a decrease in the average unemployment rate, and little to no inflationary pressure over the 10-year horizon, while interest rates increase only modestly." Page 50
For what it's worth I fit in to all of Todem's criteria that he mentioned and I also left a very safe/well paying job to build my own business, which worked out quite well. I have a 4 year degree (plus some additional coursework) and I paid off all my loans on my own. I also have a good amount of money for my 3 kids to go to college.
I know what he said but I don't think he was referring to the betting markets you're talking about. Maybe I'm wrong. I saw an oddsshark link and assumed he was talking about sportsbook odds. Let's move on?
I'd have no problem reducing the loan interest from the absurd amounts they charge. Even to zero interest.
You also have people that chose inferior schools to not have debt. Doesn't seem fair that after the fact someone can have a Stanford education for free via best forgiveness while the person who paid in full to go to Northeast California State School of the Good Enough gets stuck with that schools degree. Fair would be to give everyone who went to college $50k and call it a day.
One case is my ex-brother in law. Go back to school when you're 40 and can't hold a job due to your drinking. Don't go to the university where you live that has the program but move two hours away to do it. Rent an apartment in that town as well to live in. Get loans to go to school and when you get out, you can get no better job than when you started. He's been a financial trainwreck ever since I've known him, they could pay his loans off, it won't get any better.
Did someone hold a gun to the head of everyone taking out these 60k loans for degrees that done pay well? Did they even spend a minute thinking about how they would be paid back on 50k salaries?
Speaking personally, I was the first person in my family to go to college. None of us had a clue how to make the decisions that I did. I picked a very good school that offered a poor family a lot of money, but not quite all. We were all just excited about the school.
Don't have to, but it will need to be a two-horse race to give Bernie a credible challenge imo.
The number of people who had any sort of coherent plan then left college $50+k in debt without the prospects to pay them back is tiny. Until that talking point dies a fiery death potential progress ceases to exist. There are reasonable solutions to this problem, but discussing them is a waste of time until the unreasonable voices and those that dont understand all of the facts stop talking. Or at least get muted.
Yep, my plan was, "Wow, you should be able to start out with a really nice starting salary with an analytical degree from a top school!"
You're right about IK getting it backwards. You're wrong about books setting bad lines for bad gamblers. You can always take the other side and the good gamblers would exploit that.
I was the first in my family to go to college also.
I totally understand that its incredibly more expensive. So why choose to go into all that debt?
I don't disagree with this at all.
You got ####ed. This is America. Sometimes people get ####ed. You made what you thought were the right decisions based on the information available. Then got ####ed.
Yeah, I don't try to drum up pity, just offer a perspective when someone asks for an example.
Because multiple studies have shown that financial success without a college degree is a lot less probable than with one.
Yup..Maybe we should start with 2 years free tuition and day care at any community college or trade school and see how that works out.
Not for some of the degrees ive seen these people still way in debt choose .
By that same token, one of the groups we should be focusing on in the student loan forgiveness discussion is people who weren’t able to finish college. They hold relatively little debt but it’s especially burdensome for them because they didn’t end up with a degree and have lower earning than graduates. Compared to comprehensive loan forgiveness, canceling those people’s debt would be a pretty cheap intervention and would give relief to some of the people who need it most.
I live in NY. I know a few years ago we started statewide giving free tuition to any in state full time student to attend a state school as long as income is <126k/year. The caveat is that you agree to live and work in NYS after graduation for as long as you take assistance.
