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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (2 Viewers)

It has to be old people that are doing this right? Anyone see any kind of demographic breakdown of these Bloomberg supporters. I swear the boomers will not release the stranglehold they have had on this country for decades and I think a chunk of them can only get behind a candidate if they knew who the person was 30 years ago. 

 
It has to be old people that are doing this right? Anyone see any kind of demographic breakdown of these Bloomberg supporters. I swear the boomers will not release the stranglehold they have had on this country for decades and I think a chunk of them can only get behind a candidate if they knew who the person was 30 years ago. 
Age breakdowns from that Marist poll:

Code:
UNDER 45:
Sanders 54%
Warren 16%
Bloomberg 8%
Biden 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Buttigieg 5%

45 AND OLDER:
Bloomberg 27%
Biden 22%
Sanders 13%
Klobuchar 11%
Buttigieg 10%
Warren 7%
 
Age breakdowns from that Marist poll:

UNDER 45:
Sanders 54%
Warren 16%
Bloomberg 8%
Biden 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Buttigieg 5%

45 AND OLDER:
Bloomberg 27%
Biden 22%
Sanders 13%
Klobuchar 11%
Buttigieg 10%
Warren 7%

I was thinking more it was the over 65 crowd making theses numbers what they are. I want to do some more research on this when I leave work.

 
PARTYID..... AGE IN YRS.............. INCOME.............
Dem DemLn 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <50k 50-100 100k+

Biden 24% 15% 12% 20% 23% 30% 20% 25% 18%
Sanders 21 26 49 27 10 6 26 24 16
Warren 14 17 14 20 15 9 12 13 21
Klobuchar 4 3 1 4 4 4 3 5 3
Gabbard 1 - 2 1 - - 1 - 1
Buttigieg 9 13 8 10 13 8 7 12 13
Yang 2 1 5 2 - 2 2 2 3
Bennet 1 - - 1 1 - 1 - 1
Steyer - 3 1 - 1 1 1 - 1
Patrick - - - - - 1 - - -
Bloomberg 13 15 6 10 15 20 11 14 14
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - -
DK/NA 12 8 4 5 17 19 15 6 9


Quinnipiac, from Feb 10, has more age breakdowns @TheMagus. Bloomberg's numbers are highest among 65+
eta- But Quinn also shows him doing better with higher income, which is the opposite of the NPR poll, which found 19% <50k vs 16% 50k+, so don't know how much weight to give all of this.

 
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Considering how well he’s done for weeks with basically saying nothing he may want to consider just skipping the debate.
The Ross Perot strategy. Perot was doing great until he actually had to respond to legitimate questions about how he would govern. Oh, and picking Admiral Stockdale as his running mate didn't help either.

 
Bloomberg has qualified for tomorrow’s debate. Latest national poll from NPR/Marist:

Sanders 31%
Bloomberg 19%
Biden 15%
Warren 12%
Klobuchar 9%
Buttigieg 8%
Wow, Bernie is pulling away.  This thing may be essentially over except for the last ditch opposition by the end of Super Tuesday.  He would only have a plurality, but a strong one.  Reminds me so much of the 2016 Trump run and you had Cruz/Kasich stay in as long as they possibly could but it was over long before they quit.  The main difference is no winner take all states will make his lead a plurality and it will be up to the party and other candidates to decide if they keep others in to deny him the delegates he needs to force it to the convention.

 
It has to be old people that are doing this right? Anyone see any kind of demographic breakdown of these Bloomberg supporters. I swear the boomers will not release the stranglehold they have had on this country for decades and I think a chunk of them can only get behind a candidate if they knew who the person was 30 years ago. 
Maybe it's because of what Bernie was 30 years ago.

 
Wow, Bernie is pulling away.  This thing may be essentially over except for the last ditch opposition by the end of Super Tuesday.  He would only have a plurality, but a strong one.  Reminds me so much of the 2016 Trump run and you had Cruz/Kasich stay in as long as they possibly could but it was over long before they quit.  The main difference is no winner take all states will make his lead a plurality and it will be up to the party and other candidates to decide if they keep others in to deny him the delegates he needs to force it to the convention.
FWIW most other national polls show Bernie at 20-25% so this is a bit of an outlier for now--if he starts routinely cracking 30% that's certainly a problem for the field. I think we're getting an NBC/WSJ national poll this afternoon so we'll see how that one compares.

 
At the end of the day (I hate that phrase) it looks like the Democrat convention choices is coming down to two angry old white guys. Bernie and Bloomberg.
I wish we could go back to the good old days when white men had all the power instead of just most of it. ~Stan Smith

 
Would be interesting to see how people react to a Democrat buying an election.


Will be even more interesting to see how people react to Bloomberg buying an election.  If the Bloomberg thread is any indication, it won't go over well.


I can only speak for myself, but I am a fairly moderate (lifelong) Democrat that has had a significant distaste for Bernie since 2016 for a variety of nuanced reasons. This Bloomberg thing is turning me into a Bernie supporter because I am getting really angry at billionaires. If Bernie wins the nomination, I will vote for him (always would). If Bloomberg wins, I don't think I will. That's how mad I am.

 
NBC/WSJ national poll:

Sanders 27% (unchanged since Jan)
Biden 15% (-11)
Bloomberg 14% (+5)
Warren 14% (-1)
Buttigieg 13% (+6)
Klobuchar 7% (+2)

 
I can only speak for myself, but I am a fairly moderate (lifelong) Democrat that has had a significant distaste for Bernie since 2016 for a variety of nuanced reasons. This Bloomberg thing is turning me into a Bernie supporter because I am getting really angry at billionaires. If Bernie wins the nomination, I will vote for him (always would). If Bloomberg wins, I don't think I will. That's how mad I am.
Are you mad enough that you would rather have four more years of Trump than Bloomberg?

 
Are you mad enough that you would rather have four more years of Trump than Bloomberg?
If Bloomberg wins the nomination it is going to be the result of a contested convention because he is not going to receive over 50% of the delegates. To that point he is going to CAUSE the contested convention because he is eating into any support the "moderate" wing of the party will get because I guess 20% or more of the voters are voting based on TV ads. This is why I am most angry - he is going to screw up the whole primary process by throwing a billion dollars at TV after entering the race at the last minute. There was already a substantial possibility that no one would win the majority of the delegates and he is pretty much guaranteeing it. He also likely won't drop out because he has a neverending well of money to campaign with, unlike every other candidate.

If there is a contested convention with Bloomberg somehow walking away with the nomination Trump is winning four more years anyway so my vote isn't going to matter. It will be disastrous and destroy the party. 

 
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You just know the Republicans are hiding all the opp material they have on Bernie. He probably has a poster of Leon Trotsky in his bedroom, right next to the beret that Che gave him back in the day. The GOP likely has pictures of Bernie sharing a good cigar with Fidel in Havana...they’ll unleash it all once he’s the nominee...

 
CA poll from the Public Policy Institute of California:

Sanders 32%
Biden 14%
Warren 13%
Buttigieg 12%
Bloomberg 12%
Klobuchar 5%

Almost 400,000 early ballots have already been returned there.

ETA another California poll, this from SurveyUSA:

Sanders 25%
Bloomberg 21%
Biden 15%
Buttigieg 12%
Warren 9%
Klobuchar 6%

 
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You just know the Republicans are hiding all the opp material they have on Bernie. He probably has a poster of Leon Trotsky in his bedroom, right next to the beret that Che gave him back in the day. The GOP likely has pictures of Bernie sharing a good cigar with Fidel in Havana...they’ll unleash it all once he’s the nominee...
Not to mention the video of his wild night of passion with Jane Fonda where they got freaky with henna tattoos of Ho Chi Minh, some combustible American flags, a bottle of mescal, and some saffron oil and swim fins.  

 
Not to mention the video of his wild night of passion with Jane Fonda where they got freaky with henna tattoos of Ho Chi Minh, some combustible American flags, a bottle of mescal, and some saffron oil and swim fins.  
He thought it was Hanoi Jane...but it turned out to be Tom Hayden. 

 
Just crazy.  Imagine blaming russia for ‘sowing discord’ while this stuff is going on.  What a convenient media fabrication that was, blaming the Russians for the internal rot of the US political system, you almost have to admire the arrogance of it all.  
Yeah, who do they have to blame now? 

 
Just crazy.  Imagine blaming russia for ‘sowing discord’ while this stuff is going on.  What a convenient media fabrication that was, blaming the Russians for the internal rot of the US political system, you almost have to admire the arrogance of it all.  
Eh the claim isn’t they created it, the claim is they exploited it.

 
I wonder how much tonight's Nevada debate will actually affect the Nevada caucuses -- seems like a majority of the votes have already been cast:

Jon Ralston @RalstonReports

NEWS: Stunning last day of turnout for Nevada caucus: Not all ballots counted but the number Tuesday was about the same as the first three days COMBINED. Upwards of 33,000. So about 70,000 total.

Perspective: 84K turned out on Caucus Day in ‘16, with no early voting. Damn.

8:33 AM · Feb 19, 2020

 
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caustic said:
I wonder how much tonight's Nevada debate will actually affect the Nevada caucuses -- seems like a majority of the votes have already been cast:

Jon Ralston @RalstonReports

NEWS: Stunning last day of turnout for Nevada caucus: Not all ballots counted but the number Tuesday was about the same as the first three days COMBINED. Upwards of 33,000. So about 70,000 total.

Perspective: 84K turned out on Caucus Day in ‘16, with no early voting. Damn.

8:33 AM · Feb 19, 2020
There's 110K hispanics that have registered in NV since 2016.  I'm guessing this cycles turnout is going to dwarf the last.

 
I think the 2020 Democratic primary is looking a lot like the 2016 Republican primary.  Here's what I see as the closest analogies:

Sanders = Trump  (No WAY this guy is going to be the nominee!! Oh wait he's the nominee)

Warren = Cruz (My ideology is closest to the guy that everyone doesn't want to be the nominee, I'm going to beat up on everyone else and hope the frontrunner collapses)

Buttigieg = Kasich (C'mon guys, can't we all just get along and beat the other party?)

Bloomberg = Jeb! (This guy has so much money he is DEFINITELY going to be the nominee! Oh wait it's over)

Klobuchar = Scott Walker (This candidate seems perfect on paper, yikes, maybe not so much in real life) 

Biden = Ben Carson (Everyone loves this guy and his zany stories that make no sense)

 
I think the 2020 Democratic primary is looking a lot like the 2016 Republican primary.  Here's what I see as the closest analogies:

Sanders = Trump  (No WAY this guy is going to be the nominee!! Oh wait he's the nominee)

Warren = Cruz (My ideology is closest to the guy that everyone doesn't want to be the nominee, I'm going to beat up on everyone else and hope the frontrunner collapses)

Buttigieg = Kasich (C'mon guys, can't we all just get along and beat the other party?)

Bloomberg = Jeb! (This guy has so much money he is DEFINITELY going to be the nominee! Oh wait it's over)

Klobuchar = Scott Walker (This candidate seems perfect on paper, yikes, maybe not so much in real life) 

Biden = Ben Carson (Everyone loves this guy and his zany stories that make no sense)
I don't buy all of those, but the key is the order people drop out and how their supporters realign after they do. I think Warren is the first out. I think she endorses Klobuchar. 

Edit to add unless she is out as well. 

 
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I don't buy all of those, but the key is the order people drop out and how their supporters realign after they do. I think Warren is the first out. I think she endorses Klobuchar. 

Edit to add unless she is out as well. 
A bad next showing and Amy could walk...if her momentum is dead she may say no more beatings like she took last night.

While I don't think she would endorse Pete...I think a good chunk of her support would still go towards him.  Really be nice if she and Bloomberg left after last night...but I don't think Bloomberg's ego will let that happen either.  Unfortunately...he and his money will be around a while.

 
I don't buy all of those, but the key is the order people drop out and how their supporters realign after they do. I think Warren is the first out. I think she endorses Klobuchar. 

Edit to add unless she is out as well. 
Amy and Warren went at it last night.  Warren seemed noticeably softer on Bernie.

 
A bad next showing and Amy could walk...if her momentum is dead she may say no more beatings like she took last night.

While I don't think she would endorse Pete...I think a good chunk of her support would still go towards him.  Really be nice if she and Bloomberg left after last night...but I don't think Bloomberg's ego will let that happen either.  Unfortunately...he and his money will be around a while.
Bloomberg's results aren't going to let that happen.  I can't watch a youtube video without Obama endorsing Bloomberg.

 
Bloomberg's results aren't going to let that happen.  I can't watch a youtube video without Obama endorsing Bloomberg.
Yeah that is the unfortunate part.  His money bought him name recognition and plastered these ads that people see more than they saw him destroyed during a debate.

The debate footage would be free advertising for Trump if Bloomberg could win the nomination.  Doesnt matter that T is guilty of the same crap.

 

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