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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee

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1 minute ago, Popeyecon said:

Reminder that Iowa and Nevada are caucuses -- where a smaller, more-dedicated supporter base can lift a candidate.  And NH is home turf for Sanders.

He'll probably still take more votes than anyone else on Super Tuesday, but it's not a conspiracy or "the DNC" if he doesn't.  He didn't do nearly as well in states where people actually voted.

There was primarily-style early voting for this caucus which a lot of people took advantage of. Also, given the demographics of Sanders’ base, NH was “home turf” in geography only. 

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1 minute ago, Shula-holic said:

I don't think it's going to be close enough they can.  I think he's going to reach the number he needs to clinch it.

I'd much rather see Bernie (or anyone other than Bloomberg) take down a clear win than have my favorite candidate win 30% of a 5-way split of the field.  

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16 minutes ago, caustic said:

Chris Matthews compared Bernie’s win to the Germans overrunning the Maginot Line in 1940. Are you ####### kidding me. :lmao: 

Name one way it's different.

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19 minutes ago, caustic said:

Yes. If I’m the Bernie camp I’m becoming genuinely worried about how these guys are going to cover the 

Why? No one watches them anyway.

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Fox News has declared a landslide win for Sanders.  On MSNBC, they’re discussing whether this will be a wake up call for the centrists to rally behind an unnamed candidate who can beat Bernie.  The jokes write themselves.  
 

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11 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Name one way it's different.

The Germans lost the war. :excited:

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1 minute ago, CletiusMaximus said:

Fox News has declared a landslide win for Sanders.  On MSNBC, they’re discussing whether this will be a wake up call for the centrists to rally behind an unnamed candidate who can beat Bernie.  The jokes write themselves.  
 

This thing is all over, they just don't realize it yet

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lol, MSNBC keeping up the "Sanders hasn't been vetted" garbage.

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Sharpton: "Sanders hasn't said whether or not he'd support Bloomberg if Bloomberg was the nominee." What planet is he on? How many times does  Bernie have to say he would support the nominee no matter who it is? He's said it at every single debate.

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Barreling towards a scenario in which one nominee is from Brooklyn and the other is from Queens. Subway series, baby!

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9 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

lol, MSNBC keeping up the "Sanders hasn't been vetted" garbage.

It's true.  He hasn't faced the heat yet until Bloomberg called him out the other day.  Everyone up to this point has been sucking up to him and giving him softballs.

He'll get vetted, but only by the GOP during the General if he makes it that far.  Trump and the right are going to slaughter him.  He'll probably have another heart attack with what he's going to face.

You better believe people are going to know how a multi-millionaire with 3 houses is a Socialist.  Or how Socialism destroyed a lot of countries and now he wants to bring it here.  That's just the tip of the iceberg.

Edited by BladeRunner
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Pete creeping up the %, his ground game is very strong. I want people on his team helping out for the general, be it as the nominee or helping out someone else. Could be the difference to reach out and grab every last electoral vote.

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3 hours ago, Navin Johnson said:

Reports that some polling sites haven't opened because no volunteers showed up.

Butigieg expected to declare victory within the hour.

Probably not very likely this time. 

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2 hours ago, ShamrockPride said:

So nothing else matters to you except the economy? Nothing at all, huh?

Its been said a time or two “Its the economy stupid.” That doesn’t make it right but.

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8 minutes ago, hagmania said:

Pete creeping up the %, his ground game is very strong. I want people on his team helping out for the general, be it as the nominee or helping out someone else. Could be the difference to reach out and grab every last electoral vote.

His team is unbelievable.  It’s one reason I think his team in a cabinet and staff would be. 

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3 hours ago, Navin Johnson said:

Reports that some polling sites haven't opened because no volunteers showed up.

Butigieg expected to declare victory within the hour.

He is holding a solid third place. Only about 250 votes behind Biden with only 10% reporting.

Edited by Phil Elliott

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I expect Pete will probably snag 2nd in the end. If only because Biden is generally on a downswing and Pete the opposite.

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1 minute ago, Phil Elliott said:

He is holding a solid third place. Only about 250 votes behind Biden with only 10% reporting.

He's gotta shot with Bernie plummeting into first place.

 

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1 minute ago, mcintyre1 said:

I expect Pete will probably snag 2nd in the end. If only because Biden is generally on a downswing and Pete the opposite.

The end of today?  He's only polling at 2% among African-Americans.  SC he's going to fall off even more.

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At this point for Bernie to lose the nomination, there will have to be ONE centrist candidate to oppose him: Biden, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, or Klobuchar. That means 3 of them need to drop out, and I don’t see that happening. 

As much as I disapprove of Bernie and think he will lose the general election, I won’t support shenanigans at the convention to try and cheat him of the nomination. If that happened I would feel compelled to support him. 

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50 minutes ago, BladeRunner said:

It's true.  He hasn't faced the heat yet until Bloomberg called him out the other day.  Everyone up to this point has been sucking up to him and giving him softballs.

He'll get vetted, but only by the GOP during the General if he makes it that far.  Trump and the right are going to slaughter him.  He'll probably have another heart attack with what he's going to face.

You better believe people are going to know how a multi-millionaire with 3 houses is a Socialist.  Or how Socialism destroyed a lot of countries and now he wants to bring it here.  That's just the tip of the iceberg.

James Carville was on MSNBC absolutely destroying Bernie a little bit ago and brought up the lack of vetting. He’s completely right, and Carville also appears to be jockeying for leader of the coveted “Never Bernie” faction.

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Results have gone from a slow trickle to complete stoppage. Good job all.

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Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump. It’s like the  Cincinnati Bengals vs the Washington Redskins in the Super Bowl. 

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1 hour ago, BladeRunner said:

It's true.  He hasn't faced the heat yet until Bloomberg called him out the other day.  Everyone up to this point has been sucking up to him and giving him softballs.

He'll get vetted, but only by the GOP during the General if he makes it that far.  Trump and the right are going to slaughter him.  He'll probably have another heart attack with what he's going to face.

You better believe people are going to know how a multi-millionaire with 3 houses is a Socialist.  Or how Socialism destroyed a lot of countries and now he wants to bring it here.  That's just the tip of the iceberg.

Can’t argue with any of this but...who knows? Trump could find a dozen ways to blow this. If anyone can screw up a sure thing he’s a prime candidate. 

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I hope I'm wrong about Sanders electibility vs Trump this year.

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One big notable thing re: "electability" that I saw CNN and 538 talk about is how well Sanders was doing among "non-college educated white voters" (read: Trump's base of support) -- he outperformed the field by a lot. He also won "college educated whites", but by a much smaller margin with Warren/Pete close behind.

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12 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

One big notable thing re: "electability" that I saw CNN and 538 talk about is how well Sanders was doing among "non-college educated white voters" (read: Trump's base of support) -- he outperformed the field by a lot. He also won "college educated whites", but by a much smaller margin with Warren/Pete close behind.

I'm sorry, where are you getting that Trump's base is non-college educated white voters?

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23 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

I hope I'm wrong about Sanders electibility vs Trump this year.

I‘m not saying you are right or wrong - I really have no clue and quite frankly find  everybody chiming in with their “Bernie can’t win”, “Amy/Pete/Bloomberg is the only one who can beat Trump”, etc to be full of hot air.  None of us know - people can laugh at polls as much as they want but it’s the best we have and Bernie somewhat consistently has polled as best head to head against Trump.  I’m not confident of anything in November but I don’t have the huge concerns about Bernie that some have - I find it to be mostly fear mongering.

Edited by AAABatteries
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7 minutes ago, BladeRunner said:

I'm sorry, where are you getting that Trump's base is non-college educated white voters?

Is there a place you can get anything else?  If so I think I'm seeing the possibility of a breakthrough.

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38 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

Results have gone from a slow trickle to complete stoppage. Good job all.

Phone lines reportedly busy. So are the backup phone lines. 

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4 minutes ago, BladeRunner said:

I'm sorry, where are you getting that Trump's base is non-college educated white voters?

There have been plenty of polls and studies done to show this, but for the sake of helping you find one easier, here's Pew Research's "Validated Voters" study. It attempts to get the most accurate representation of of the 2016 election that they can by taking results of post-election surveys and matching those respondents to official voting records to ensure the people in the data set actually voted. There's a whole big section on methodology if you're interested.

According to Pew's study:

Quote

Overall, whites with a four-year college degree or more education made up 30% of all validated voters. Among these voters, far more (55%) said they voted for Clinton than for Trump (38%). Among the much larger group of white voters who had not completed college (44% of all voters), Trump won by more than two-to-one (64% to 28%).

By far the largest single source of support for Trump (which also accounts for one of the largest chunks of the electorate), was non-college educated white voters, and men in particular.

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9 minutes ago, BladeRunner said:

I'm sorry, where are you getting that Trump's base is non-college educated white voters?

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

Quote

In the 2016 election, a wide gap in presidential preferences emerged between those with and without a college degree. College graduates backed Clinton by a 9-point margin (52%-43%), while those without a college degree backed Trump 52%-44%. This is by far the widest gap in support among college graduates and non-college graduates in exit polls dating back to 1980.

White non-Hispanic voters preferred Trump over Clinton by 21 percentage points (58% to 37%)

 

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5 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I‘m not saying you are right or wrong - I really have no clue and quite frankly find  everybody chiming in with their “Bernie can’t win”, “Amy/Pete/Bloomberg is the only one who can beat Trump”, etc to be full of hot air.  None of us know - people can laugh at polls as much as they want but it’s the best we have and Bernie somewhat consistently has polled as best head to head against Trump.  I’m not confident of anything in November but I don’t have the huge concerns about Bernie that some have - I find it to be mostly fear mongering.

yep

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Holy **** we need to move away from caucuses. 10% of first totals and 4% of county delegates in three hours after sites were empty.

Edited by Gawain
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12 minutes ago, BladeRunner said:

I'm sorry, where are you getting that Trump's base is non-college educated white voters?

hi.  I’m earth. Have we met?

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3 minutes ago, Popeyecon said:

Is there a place you can get anything else?  If so I think I'm seeing the possibility of a breakthrough.

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this forum is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

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1 minute ago, Gawain said:
12 minutes ago, BladeRunner said:

I'm sorry, where are you getting that Trump's base is non-college educated white voters?

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

Quote

In the 2016 election, a wide gap in presidential preferences emerged between those with and without a college degree. College graduates backed Clinton by a 9-point margin (52%-43%), while those without a college degree backed Trump 52%-44%. This is by far the widest gap in support among college graduates and non-college graduates in exit polls dating back to 1980.

White non-Hispanic voters preferred Trump over Clinton by 21 percentage points (58% to 37%)

 

For the record, this Pew study/poll that Gawain linked is from 2016 and didn't go through the effort of validating whether the respondent's voted. The one I linked is from 2018 and went to much greater effort to clean up the sample of voters to actual voters.

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Just now, joffer said:

hi.  I’m earth. Have we met?

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this forum is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

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1 minute ago, mcintyre1 said:

For the record, this Pew study/poll that Gawain linked is from 2016 and didn't go through the effort of validating whether the respondent's voted. The one I linked is from 2018 and went to much greater effort to clean up the sample of voters to actual voters.

Interesting.  I didn't know that.  Thanks for the follow up!  :thumbup:

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53 minutes ago, timschochet said:

At this point for Bernie to lose the nomination, there will have to be ONE centrist candidate to oppose him: Biden, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, or Klobuchar. That means 3 of them need to drop out, and I don’t see that happening. 

As much as I disapprove of Bernie and think he will lose the general election, I won’t support shenanigans at the convention to try and cheat him of the nomination. If that happened I would feel compelled to support him. 

Which centrist candidate makes sense to be the one that should move on?

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Gonna reply about the Pew study @BladeRunner or just keep copy/pasting a Billy Madison quote? 

Sorry, didn't see your response.

Edited by mcintyre1

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1 hour ago, Widbil83 said:

 

James Carville was on MSNBC absolutely destroying Bernie a little bit ago and brought up the lack of vetting. He’s completely right, and Carville also appears to be jockeying for leader of the coveted “Never Bernie” faction.

When the architect of the wildly successful Michael Bennett campaign speaks, Democrats better listen. 

Edited by Ramsay Hunt Experience
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6 minutes ago, Encyclopedia Brown said:

Pete using his concession speech to pull a knife on Bernie is a very bad look. It's something Trump would do.

Cliff’s notes? 

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What is this nonsense that Bernie hasn’t been vetted?  Are we saying that Hillary, Biden, Pete, Warren, and Amy’s campaigns are all so incompetent that they didn’t scrutinize Sanders.  I find that to be utter hogwash and more fear mongering. 

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11 minutes ago, Encyclopedia Brown said:

Pete using his concession speech to pull a knife on Bernie is a very bad look. It's something Trump would do.

what did he say?

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4 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

What is this nonsense that Bernie hasn’t been vetted?  Are we saying that Hillary, Biden, Pete, Warren, and Amy’s campaigns are all so incompetent that they didn’t scrutinize Sanders.  I find that to be utter hogwash and more fear mongering. 

It's todays Soup of the Day

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