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***2020 Democrat Primary/Caucus Thread*** Biden Is Your Demoractic Nominee (2 Viewers)

fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Have you guys that are hoping for a Biden nomination actually watched him very much?  At least half of his answers at the last debate were gibberish.  By "gibberish" I don't mean anything about their content, I mean that they were just nonsensical word salad.  And it's not like he just had one bad night, that just seems to be where his brain is these days.  That's not only a problem if he actually becomes President (but yeah, it's a huge problem in that scenario).  I think it's a huge problem for his ability to beat Trump.

The story of the Biden campaign so far is that his numbers were high when nobody was paying attention, and they have steadily dropped as people have actually watched him.  That doesn't concern you for the general election?  Because people will be paying attention to that one.
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100% this. I’ve always liked Biden, but I don’t understand how anyone can watch him and not see a man on the decline. These aren’t his typical gaffes. 

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Have you guys that are hoping for a Biden nomination actually watched him very much?  At least half of his answers at the last debate were gibberish.  By "gibberish" I don't mean anything about their content, I mean that they were just nonsensical word salad.  And it's not like he just had one bad night, that just seems to be where his brain is these days.  That's not only a problem if he actually becomes President (but yeah, it's a huge problem in that scenario).  I think it's a huge problem for his ability to beat to Trump.
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Biden, like Trump, is graded on such a curve. Pundits are saying he had a strong debate on Tuesday because there were “no elderly moments.” Strong performance indeed.

 
What are the odds that the candidates get the coronovirus?  Many are in highly at-risk categories in terms of mortality.

They're out shaking hands, in crowds, eating, speaking, drinking.  

What a mess.

 
It looks like it's going to come down to Bernie vs. Biden.

Biden isn't a perfect candidate by any means. But I believe he'll put good people in important government positions, and he'll respect cherished norms and institutions like the rule of law.

Biden is more likely to listen to his advisors during meetings, whereas Bernie will just yell at them all the time. Biden is also more likely to work toward compromise with people a bit to the right or left of him, while Bernie will just yell at them all the time.

I think I'm going to remain idealistic and vote for Buttigieg in the California primary, but I'm almost talking myself into voting for Biden as a defensive maneuver.

 
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Maurile Tremblay said:
I think I'm going to remain idealistic and vote for Buttigieg in the California primary, but I'm almost talking myself into voting for Biden as a defensive maneuver.
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You could factor in whether Buttigieg's SC performance seems to widen his path any, but it seems pretty uphill. I feel like a lot of people who don't want a Sanders nomination will review like you are and turn to Biden. But trying to game what others will do doesn't necessarily work out. I have a friend also voting Super Tuesday and she is driving herself nuts trying to assess who is most electable. 

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
It looks like it's going to come down to Bernie vs. Biden.

Biden isn't a perfect candidate by any means. But I believe he'll put good people in important governmental positions, and he'll respect cherished norms and institutions like the rule of law.

Biden is more likely to listen to his advisors during meetings, whereas Bernie will just yell at them all the time. Biden is also more likely to work toward compromise with people a bit to the right or left of him, while Bernie will just yell at them all the time.

I think I'm going to remain idealistic and vote for Buttigieg in the California primary, but I'm almost talking myself into voting for Biden as a defensive maneuver.
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This is how I feel, except my first choice is Klobuchar. I am 50/50 to switch to Biden. 

 
zoonation said:
Biden against Trump would be a dementia battle.  Biden’s comes off worse imo and Trump’s supporters don’t care about his.  
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Trump is extremely high energy and bigly entertaining.  Biden just looks old and weird.  And he has no message at all.  

 
"Democracy hangs on the idea that whoever gets the most votes wins. That's the central starting point and it's worth repeating every single day."

-Elizabeth Warren, then and now.  At a certain point you have to wonder if she's just setting Sanders up to get jacked by the DNC again.  

 
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adonis said:
What are the odds that the candidates get the coronovirus?  Many are in highly at-risk categories in terms of mortality.

They're out shaking hands, in crowds, eating, speaking, drinking.  

What a mess.
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RIght this second?  Close to zero.  The virus is not currently spreading out in US communities.   We could do with a lot less of the what could happen.

 
ren hoek said:
Trump is extremely high energy and bigly entertaining.  Biden just looks old and weird.  And he has no message at all.  
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Trump is a halfwit.  He is not entertaining at all.  Although, simple things for simple minds, as they say.  He speaks at a grade school level.  And nothing he says can be believed.  He is the worst.  

agree with your Biden take though.  He’s awful, in a far better way.  

 
Mystery Achiever said:
You could factor in whether Buttigieg's SC performance seems to widen his path any, but it seems pretty uphill. I feel like a lot of people who don't want a Sanders nomination will review like you are and turn to Biden. But trying to game what others will do doesn't necessarily work out. I have a friend also voting Super Tuesday and she is driving herself nuts trying to assess who is most electable. 
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Gabbard is the most electable but the DNC torpedoed her campaign because Hillary hates her.

 
zoonation said:
Trump is a halfwit.  He is not entertaining at all.  Although, simple things for simple minds, as they say.  He speaks at a grade school level.  And nothing he says can be believed.  He is the worst.  

agree with your Biden take though.  He’s awful, in a far better way.  
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Trump is high energy and entertaining just like a newborn puppy.  But I don't trust the puppy not to pee on the rug if left alone.  Hey, they are similar!

 
zoonation said:
Trump is a halfwit.  He is not entertaining at all.  Although, simple things for simple minds, as they say.  He speaks at a grade school level.  And nothing he says can be believed.  He is the worst.  

agree with your Biden take though.  He’s awful, in a far better way.  
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Wrong

 
Biden now expected to win by double digits on Saturday. It’d be wild if his “wait till South Carolina” strategy just kinda worked out how everyone thought it would in April.

 
caustic said:
Biden now expected to win by double digits on Saturday. It’d be wild if his “wait till South Carolina” strategy just kinda worked out how everyone thought it would in April.
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So weekend at Bernies isn’t over yet? Ol Joe could really pull this out?

 
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zoonation said:
Trump is a halfwit.  He is not entertaining at all.  Although, simple things for simple minds, as they say.  He speaks at a grade school level.  And nothing he says can be believed.  He is the worst.  

agree with your Biden take though.  He’s awful, in a far better way.  
Click to expand...
Please be more cool

 
GoBirds said:
So weekend at Bernies isn’t over yet? Ol Joe could really pull this out?
Click to expand...
His path to victory looks something like

1. Big win in South Carolina 

2. Super Tuesday boost

3. Other moderates quickly drop out after Tuesday

Seems like he’s going to accomplish #1. Hard to predict #2 but if anti-Bernie voters on Super Tuesday see Joe as the only viable alternative, it could happen.

 
caustic said:
His path to victory looks something like

1. Big win in South Carolina 

2. Super Tuesday boost

3. Other moderates quickly drop out after Tuesday

Seems like he’s going to accomplish #1. Hard to predict #2 but if anti-Bernie voters on Super Tuesday see Joe as the only viable alternative, it could happen.
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I could see this happening as Bernie is so far off the deep end and they want to beat Trump I would think more so than Bernie getting revenge on the DNC then getting hammered against Trump.....what % you give Biden maybe 40%?

As a non liberal I would much rather face Bernie as I don’t think he has a prayer. 

 
GoBirds said:
I could see this happening as Bernie is so far off the deep end and they want to beat Trump I would think more so than Bernie getting revenge on the DNC then getting hammered against Trump.....what % you give Biden maybe 40%?

As a non liberal I would much rather face Bernie as I don’t think he has a prayer. 
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538 puts Biden’s chances of a delegate plurality at 33% and his chances of a delegate majority at 17%. I think that’s about right and those numbers are bound to spike if he comes away from SC with a commanding win.

 
Saw this and thought it was interesting, showing the donations by zip code in the SF bay area for primary candidates (or Trump):

https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/mapping-money/

As a general trend, it seems the super rich areas are for Buttigieg or Biden, the moderately rich areas are for Warren, and everything else is for Sanders. Of course, I don't know the details of every zip code, and there are plenty of exceptions. Also, since it is the SF bay area, figure the Sanders areas are the "poor" areas because the houses are worth less than 2 million, it is not like they are the projects. That yellow swath on the peninsula south of SF (oddly enough called the Peninsula) probably is closer to an average of 3 million+ per house. However, I am also pulling numbers out of a hat so I am probably completely wrong. It seems like racial make up also nudges it some, some zip codes that seem richer but more minority heavy (mostly Asian) still trend Sanders. 

 
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fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Have you guys that are hoping for a Biden nomination actually watched him very much?  At least half of his answers at the last debate were gibberish.  By "gibberish" I don't mean anything about their content, I mean that they were just nonsensical word salad.  And it's not like he just had one bad night, that just seems to be where his brain is these days.  That's not only a problem if he actually becomes President (but yeah, it's a huge problem in that scenario).  I think it's a huge problem for his ability to beat Trump.
Click to expand...
Don't disagree except for the part about beating Trump.   He's a safe bet that a lot of the country can get behind.  I'm not saying people are going to be excited to vote for him but they won't be scared to vote for him and that may be enough.

Not my favorite but kind of resigned to that he's got the best chance.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Have you guys that are hoping for a Biden nomination actually watched him very much?  At least half of his answers at the last debate were gibberish.  By "gibberish" I don't mean anything about their content, I mean that they were just nonsensical word salad.  And it's not like he just had one bad night, that just seems to be where his brain is these days.  That's not only a problem if he actually becomes President (but yeah, it's a huge problem in that scenario).  I think it's a huge problem for his ability to beat Trump.

The story of the Biden campaign so far is that his numbers were high when nobody was paying attention, and they have steadily dropped as people have actually watched him.  That doesn't concern you for the general election?  Because people will be paying attention to that one.
Click to expand...
As someone who was excited to have Biden run against trump, I am honestly concerned that Biden is mentally not there as in early stage Alzheimer’s. I completely agree I don’t see how anyone who has actually seen Biden on the debate stage could think “yeah that seems like someone who I want to lead the country”.

 
If Biden won SC despite running the worst, most cringe campaign I’ve ever seen in my life, well that’d really be something.  

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Trump is in everybody’s head.  People are so desperate to beat him that they’ll vote for any terrible candidate that they perceive has a chance to beat him.
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As long as that is a self fulfilling prophecy, so be it. The US has survived a stint with a President with Alzheimer's before. All it takes is halfway competent advisors.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Trump is in everybody’s head.  People are so desperate to beat him that they’ll vote for any terrible candidate that they perceive has a chance to beat him.
Click to expand...
I think you’re missing some great campaigning by Biden in the last week. His speech about Bowe yesterday was Biden at his absolute best.

Biden’s main problem is that even if he wins big he’s only got 2 days and no money to consolidate it. On the other hand, if the message from Saturday is that black voters still don’t want Bernie, that’s very problematic for him. (Bernie). 

 
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zoonation said:
Biden against Trump would be a dementia battle.  Biden’s comes off worse imo and Trump’s supporters don’t care about his.  
Click to expand...


Maurile Tremblay said:
It looks like it's going to come down to Bernie vs. Biden.

Biden isn't a perfect candidate by any means. But I believe he'll put good people in important governmental positions, and he'll respect cherished norms and institutions like the rule of law.

Biden is more likely to listen to his advisors during meetings, whereas Bernie will just yell at them all the time. Biden is also more likely to work toward compromise with people a bit to the right or left of him, while Bernie will just yell at them all the time.

I think I'm going to remain idealistic and vote for Buttigieg in the California primary, but I'm almost talking myself into voting for Biden as a defensive maneuver.
Click to expand...


Drunken Cowboy said:
This is how I feel, except my first choice is Klobuchar. I am 50/50 to switch to Biden. 
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Biden voters don't care either.  It appears they are willing to line up to vote for an inferior candidate.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
Trump is in everybody’s head.  People are so desperate to beat him that they’ll vote for any terrible candidate that they perceive has a chance to beat him.
Click to expand...
If I was a Trump person in SC, I'd vote for Biden.  Set the DNC up for a contested convention and promote the worst candidate in the race.  

 
timschochet said:
I think you’re missing some great campaigning by Biden in the last week. His speech about Bowe yesterday was Biden at his absolute best.

Biden’s main problem is that even if he wins big he’s only got 2 days and no money to consolidate it. On the other hand, if the message from Saturday is that black voters still don’t want Bernie, that’s very problematic for him. (Bernie). 
Click to expand...
The Mandela lying was particularly inspired

 
I'm going to go ahead and predict that Bernie does much better than expected in South Carolina.  And also that Biden continues to decline.  My reasoning is that Biden has NEVER shown to be an effective campaigner, going back to 1988.  The only person who could stop Bernie is Bloomberg. 

 
New polls from CNN:

Code: 
CALIFORNIA	
Sanders 35% (+15 since December)
Warren 14% (-3)
Biden 13% (-8)
Bloomberg 12% (+7)
Buttigieg 7% (+2)

TEXAS
Sanders 29% (+14)
Biden 20% (-15)
Bloomberg 18% (+13)
Warren 15% (+2)
Buttigieg 8% (-1)

 
South Carolina is an important indicator. If Bernie treads water at >15% it is going to be very tough to catch him if he runs away with it in populous states.

 
Sweet J said:
I'm going to go ahead and predict that Bernie does much better than expected in South Carolina.  And also that Biden continues to decline.  My reasoning is that Biden has NEVER shown to be an effective campaigner, going back to 1988.  The only person who could stop Bernie is Bloomberg. 
Click to expand...
Its an open primary also so not sure if republicans may try to impact the results. That kind  of backfired when they pushed for Obama over Hillary.

 
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Phil Elliott said:
Its an open primary also so not sure if republicans may try to impact the results. That kind  of backfired when they pushed for Obama over Hillary.
Click to expand...
There is an effort by the GOP in SC, called Operation Chaos, asking republicans to go vote for Sanders. There are even TV ads. Their main goal is  to get primaries changed to closed vs open.

 
At least they vote in SC. Nice to get away from the “sitting in a room/gym” machinations and let people show up, cast their vote, and not have to change their mind based on viability after dedicating hours of their time to the process.

Allowing both parties to vote in one party’s primary? That doesn’t seem to make much sense. Other party goal would be to show up and muddy the waters by default, no? 

 
I'm in agreement with closed Primaries. Not a big fan of the shenanigans but the open primaries are pretty much asking for it. I would think the Rs would want people voting for Biden or a lesser candidate if they want to muddy the waters. Personally, anything that puts us a step closer to a contested convention works for me.  :clyde:

 
NorvilleBarnes said:
I'm in agreement with closed Primaries. Not a big fan of the shenanigans but the open primaries are pretty much asking for it. I would think the Rs would want people voting for Biden or a lesser candidate if they want to muddy the waters. Personally, anything that puts us a step closer to a contested convention works for me.  :clyde:
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I'm honestly torn on it.  

As a Republican, I feel like Bernie isn't going to beat Trump.  

But if I'm wrong--my god the disaster that would be.  

Biden on the flip side--would be more likely to beat Trump.  But..at least he's not a Democratic Socialist.  

Can't everyone just vote for Klobuchar?

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Allowing both parties to vote in one party’s primary? That doesn’t seem to make much sense. Other party goal would be to show up and muddy the waters by default, no? 
Click to expand...
Agree, and that seems to be what they're trying to demonstrate. The fact that there is no GOP primary in SC makes a lot of votes available if people are so inclined.

 
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