It seems the final alignment is the most meaningful. The first alignment seems like an initial primary that no one receives 50% so they have a run off election. Understand its a little different because they throw out anyone that doesn’t have 15% and “realign” to someone that has at least 15%. The other option as mentioned allows people originally with candidates under 15% can basically all realign together forming at least 15%. Interesting its a constant battle for support as you can talk to the “voters” during the process to persuade them to come to your candidate.Good article by Nate Silver explaining the first alignment/final alignment stuff that will certainly be discussed:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-iowas-three-different-votes-could-affect-who-wins/
If DNC stuck their necks out for him (Wich I don't expect) I'm convinced it would be a runaway.It's just one and it's on a college so lots of young people. Just jarring to see Biden at 3.4%. I don't think any of us really know what is going to happen but if the DNC establishment could get fully behind Sanders I think he wins.
Seriously. He may even be 5th. Looks like Bern, Pete, Amy, and Liz are all consistently ahead of him.So far, based on what they are showing at these caucuses, Biden is DOA.
I’m watching the panel discussion now and they’re all speaking positively about Sanders.Hasanabi @hasanthehun
cnn is doing everything they can to not mention bernie sanders even they literally didn't show his caucus and called him "other"
Entrance polls are showing very well for Biden. 30% of the people are over 65% and Biden is crushing that group.So far, based on what they are showing at these caucuses, Biden is DOA.
Intimidating too. This is essentially open booth voting.This is such a strange process.
I'm pulling for Bernie, but easy to forget that we're only getting a small segment televised:Seriously. He may even be 5th. Looks like Bern, Pete, Amy, and Liz are all consistently ahead of him.
Dallas CountyNot viable at this location were: Andrew Yang, who got support from six people; Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., who got support from 11 people, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who got support from 14 people. Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., who dropped out of the race, got the support of two people.
The candidates who surpassed the viability threshold in the first alignment were: Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who got the support of 20 people; former Vice President Joe Biden, who got the support of 21 people; and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who got the support of 20 people.
Agree - I'm not saying Biden won't do well, just what they are showing hasn't been favorable for him so far.I'm pulling for Bernie, but easy to forget that we're only getting a small segment televised:
Dallas County
A candidate that bases his whole campaign on being electable and beating Trump and finishes fourth is so toast. Not very many people want Biden absent some electoral advantage in the general.:anyonenotbidendot:
I'd rather overreact and then disappear.PSA- early reports are often wrong. Be patient before assessing anything.
Premature caucus projection sounds kind of dirty.I'd rather overreact and then disappear.PSA- early reports are often wrong. Be patient before assessing anything.
yeah...wild the unviables can combined and vote for a single unviable.I could see how buying votes with pie could happen here.
I went to the caucus in WA in 2016. Found it completely fascinating, but I might be a dork. Highly recommend to anyone in a caucus state.Who takes time out of their night to come sit in the "uncommitted" circle for an hour?
Although at least in Iowa, highly accurate for the ultimate nominee. MSNBC says Iowa has picked the eventual nominee 100% of the time since 2000.I was a caucus worker in Kansas in 2016. I’d eliminate them if it was up to me.
Idk, this whole caucus thing is pretty wild man. Very interesting.Have scientists done any studies about why Iowa is so boring? I'm generally pretty interested in political stuff, but I can't bring myself to care about tonight's Iowa results at all.
Was going to make a joke but that's actually pretty impressive for going first.Although at least in Iowa, highly accurate for the ultimate nominee. MSNBC says Iowa has picked the eventual nominee 100% of the time since 2000.
I've been listening to CNN on and off all day and they have been talking about him constantly.I’m watching the panel discussion now and they’re all speaking positively about Sanders.
What would it take to show he's not viable?Wish I lived in a caucus state. Ideal result from Iowa would be showing that Biden is not viable.
Probably nothing from a single state, but a 4th or lower place finish would be fairly convincing.What would it take to show he's not viable?
Where the hell are these people - is it so late that they all fell asleep or went home?Entrance polls are showing very well for Biden. 30% of the people are over 65% and Biden is crushing that group.
wake up Joe!Where the hell are these people - is it so late that they all fell asleep or went home?