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Is anyone actually giving the XFL a chance to redeem itself? (3 Viewers)

bostonfred said:
Not only is one of the teams named the battlehawks, there was a guy at the battlehawks game with a homemade battlehawk costume cheering for the battlehawks, a costume he clearly couldn't have needed before the battlehawks became his local team and which he could only really use until the XFL folds again which could be literally any day now based on past experience. That's how die hard the battlehawks fanbase is. 
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And the award for most use of Battlehawks in a sentence goes to...

 
With some of these crowds, decent to great tv ratings and McMahon’s unlimited wallet I’d venture to say it is almost a guarantee the league is back for a year 2. 

 
bostonfred said:
Not only is one of the teams named the battlehawks, there was a guy at the battlehawks game with a homemade battlehawk costume cheering for the battlehawks, a costume he clearly couldn't have needed before the battlehawks became his local team and which he could only really use until the XFL folds again which could be literally any day now based on past experience. That's how die hard the battlehawks fanbase is. 
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I will honestly feel bad for the St Louis fans if/when the XFL folds.  They really want a football team to support.

 
For start up leagues, from a business perspective, the most difficult part is the lack of game day revenue control.    Renting stadiums nearly put MLS out of business in the early 2000's and has kept the WNBA at a micro niche status when most of the NBA owners left the league.

I am unsure how how the XFL is ever going to get over that particular hurdle.    MLS was able to figure it out but they have 25+ owners as rich as McMahon, who is never going to be able to solve this by himself.

I wonder if Vince's end goal is to get the league popular enough to eventually start selling the franchises to individual owners.

 
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Capella said:
With some of these crowds, decent to great tv ratings and McMahon’s unlimited wallet I’d venture to say it is almost a guarantee the league is back for a year 2. 
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They had said the league would play two years no matter what.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
They had said the league would play two years no matter what.  
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From their public statements before they launched, they appear to be putting everything into grabbing a TV contract for year 3 to help support the league financially.   They will likely start negotiating that contract some time early next year.

Any realistic TV contract they can achieve won't be enough to achieve break even but it will likely be enough for Vince to continue to fund to see where it can grow too in its next phase.

 
Capella said:
Oh really? I figured that was just hopeful talk. 
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They said they didn't want to be reactionary and wanted to give it 2 years to actually get an idea of if people liked it.  It might have high ratings to start, then drop off mid season.  They didn't want teams thinking they would pull the plug like the AAF.  So they said they had a budget that would allow them to operate for 2 full seasons before a decision would be made whether to keep trying or to suspend it.  But VM made sure there was enough money in the coffers to pay everyone no matter what for 2 years.  

 
I admire the spirit of this thing but I just have zero interest in watching.

I know that some people are like "OMG yes MOAR football!!" but I'm just not one of them. Maybe it comes from living in the NE (where college football just isn't ingrained in the culture like other places) or being a life long Jets fan (ive seen enough bad football to last a lifetime) but it just doesn't do it for me.

Once the Superbowl ends, I'm more than cool with not thinking about football until the draft and then again until my fantasy drafts.

Hope others are enjoying it though.

 
TLEF316 said:
I admire the spirit of this thing but I just have zero interest in watching.

I know that some people are like "OMG yes MOAR football!!" but I'm just not one of them. Maybe it comes from living in the NE (where college football just isn't ingrained in the culture like other places) or being a life long Jets fan (ive seen enough bad football to last a lifetime) but it just doesn't do it for me.

Once the Superbowl ends, I'm more than cool with not thinking about football until the draft and then again until my fantasy drafts.

Hope others are enjoying it though.
Click to expand...
Even with gambling, the games just aren't very enjoyable to watch.  There are spasms of intrigue and an occasional play of interest, but there are next to no highlight plays.  And if anything, it really underscores just how hard it is to play quarterback.  Outside of PJ Walker, there hasn't been a consistent standout at the position.  Cardale Jones was atrocious yesterday and Landry Jones continues to throw INTs.  Josh Johnson looks exactly like the Josh Johnson we've been treated to for 10 years now.  The St. Louis QB has been decent, but I bet only 0.00042% of the population knows his name.

This league needs a star.  Badly.  It needs a stud QB from college to leave early and go to the XFL.  

 
We are almost at the point where we  can start making some basic judgements on the business side.  We still need everyone to get to their 3rd home game at least though to get a better feel for game day stuff and that trend.

The tv ratings are not trending well IMO, but even the lowest number here is good enough for a small tv contract.    These have to stabilize soon though, this trend can't continue for even 2 more weeks IMO else it is going to have a reverse snow ball effect.

Here is a weekly comparison of the TV viewership of the OTA channels

ABC:

Week One: 3.3m viewers

Week Two: 2.4m viewers

Week Three: 1.9m viewers

Fox:

Week One: 3.3m viewers

Week Two: 2.3m viewers

Week Three: 2.0m viewers

 
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NewlyRetired said:
We are almost at the point where we  can start making some basic judgements on the business side.  We still need everyone to get to their 3rd home game at least though to get a better feel for game day stuff and that trend.

The tv ratings are not trending well IMO, but even the lowest number here is good enough for a small tv contract.    These have to stabilize soon though, this trend can't continue for even 2 more weeks IMO else it is going to have a reverse snow ball effect.

Here is a like for like comparison of the biggest TV viewership of the weekend for XFL

Week 1: 3.3m viewers

Week 2: 2.3m viewers

Week 3: 1.7m viewers
Click to expand...
Still more viewers than the average nba/Nhl regular-season game though. The problem is those leagues have decades of ratings data you can analyze to determine trends. Nobody is going to toss a fortune at this league off of 10 weeks. That said, I have to imagine ESPN and Fox like getting 2M viewers a week in the deadest month of the year. Certainly not getting that with college hoops in February unless it’s a top-5 game. 

 
Honestly the attendance/ratings stuff And whether the league will make it is WAY more interesting to me than the games on the field. 

 
In terms of the TV contract, there are 3 items that will ultimately determine the size of the deal they will start negotiating next season:

1) The # of viewers in the key demographics

2) The total # of viewers

3) The amount of hours that can be broadcast

While I don't have any specific information, I have followed this stuff enough to know that the XFL likely has very good demographics.   The total number of viewers will all depend on where they eventually settle as a league.  Since we have not yet found the baseline, this may take a while.  As long as the total viewers does not continue to drop, the solid demographics should keep them in the hunt for a contract.

The item that hurts the XFL the most is the severe lack of advertiser hours.  Being a small league (number of teams wise) with a limited schedule means that they can only offer a small amount of hours to a broadcaster, which obviously limits the size of the contract they can get.

 
Capella said:
Honestly the attendance/ratings stuff And whether the league will make it is WAY more interesting to me than the games on the field. 
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Welcome to the other side of current pro wrestling fandom. This is currently going on with AEW, a promotion formed last year.  Has been super :popcorn: to follow (along with it legitimately being my favorite weekly TV show). They had ticket demand close to 100k for their Labor Day weekend show in Chicago.

 
hagmania said:
Welcome to the other side of current pro wrestling fandom. This is currently going on with AEW, a promotion formed last year.  Has been super :popcorn: to follow (along with it legitimately being my favorite weekly TV show). They had ticket demand close to 100k for their Labor Day weekend show in Chicago.
Click to expand...
So they’re going to make it? Tv ratings good?

 
General Malaise said:
Even with gambling, the games just aren't very enjoyable to watch.  There are spasms of intrigue and an occasional play of interest, but there are next to no highlight plays.  And if anything, it really underscores just how hard it is to play quarterback.  Outside of PJ Walker, there hasn't been a consistent standout at the position.  Cardale Jones was atrocious yesterday and Landry Jones continues to throw INTs.  Josh Johnson looks exactly like the Josh Johnson we've been treated to for 10 years now.  The St. Louis QB has been decent, but I bet only 0.00042% of the population knows his name.

This league needs a star.  Badly.  It needs a stud QB from college to leave early and go to the XFL.  
Click to expand...
Ta'amu?

 
Capella said:
So they’re going to make it? Tv ratings good?
Click to expand...
AEW Timeline:

  • A group of wrestlers hosted their own PPV, Labor Day 2018
  • Was kind-of a one-time, we know people want to see this alternative to WWE type thing
  • It is the first wrestling show in the US to draw 10,000 in the audience in like 20+ years
  • The son of a billionaire happens to be paying attention to this group of wrestlers, noting when their contracts are available. He is a huge wrestling fan.
     
  • Promotion forms January 2019. Owner is Tony Khan, yes the Khan family
  • Initial roster includes, surprise surprise, those same very popular non-WWE wrestlers, along with proven star Chris Jericho
  • Their first PPV (May 2019) sold out in under an hour. Let's just say folks in the entertainment industry took notice.
  • TNT TV deal announced two weeks before the May PPV
  • First PPV May 2019 (sold out MGM Grand Garden Arena, 113k PPV buys at $60)
     
  • They had a couple of non-PPV events throughout the summer.
  • All Out in Chicago sells out in 15 minutes. Legit.
  • Heavy rumors circulating about talent and TV timeslot
  • This was the perfect entertainment speculation timeline. Is someone seriously going to try to go toe-to-toe with WWE?!
  • Labor Day 2019 show (huge ticket demand I mentioned, similar PPV buys)
     
  • TV begins October 2019 - Wednesdays
  • WWE announces NXT (a third, streaming-only brand for them like Raw or Smackdown) will go head-to-head on USA Network
  • Show averages 900k +/- 100k per week viewership, consistently beats NXT (still nowhere close to Raw or Smackdown)
  • Consistent top 10, frequent top 5 in the key advertising 18-49 ratings demo
  • They beat an NBA game one week!
  • January 2020 they sign a reworked deal through 2023 with 2024 option, making the company profitable in 2020, two years ahead of schedule
 
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General Malaise said:
Even with gambling, the games just aren't very enjoyable to watch.  There are spasms of intrigue and an occasional play of interest, but there are next to no highlight plays.  And if anything, it really underscores just how hard it is to play quarterback.  Outside of PJ Walker, there hasn't been a consistent standout at the position.  Cardale Jones was atrocious yesterday and Landry Jones continues to throw INTs.  Josh Johnson looks exactly like the Josh Johnson we've been treated to for 10 years now.  The St. Louis QB has been decent, but I bet only 0.00042% of the population knows his name.

This league needs a star.  Badly.  It needs a stud QB from college to leave early and go to the XFL.  
Click to expand...
they couldn’t have squeezed tebow and manziel in?

 
NewlyRetired said:
In terms of the TV contract, there are 3 items that will ultimately determine the size of the deal they will start negotiating next season:

1) The # of viewers in the key demographics

2) The total # of viewers

3) The amount of hours that can be broadcast

While I don't have any specific information, I have followed this stuff enough to know that the XFL likely has very good demographics.   The total number of viewers will all depend on where they eventually settle as a league.  Since we have not yet found the baseline, this may take a while.  As long as the total viewers does not continue to drop, the solid demographics should keep them in the hunt for a contract.

The item that hurts the XFL the most is the severe lack of advertiser hours.  Being a small league (number of teams wise) with a limited schedule means that they can only offer a small amount of hours to a broadcaster, which obviously limits the size of the contract they can get.
Click to expand...
The thing they DO have going for them is that every single game is a "nationally boradcast" game (assuming we agree that FS1 is National, right?)

And none of the games conflict or overlap with each other. So you buy an add at 1pm on Saturday, every single person watching the XFL on ABC is seeing that ad.

That's gotta count for something I assume.

 
joey said:
The thing they DO have going for them is that every single game is a "nationally boradcast" game (assuming we agree that FS1 is National, right?)

And none of the games conflict or overlap with each other. So you buy an add at 1pm on Saturday, every single person watching the XFL on ABC is seeing that ad.

That's gotta count for something I assume.
Click to expand...
Only thing that counts is number of hours they can broadcast.  With only 8 teams and a 10 game schedule, they are limited in that regard when compared to other leagues/sports.  But yes, the fact that they have no local tv contracts will aid in getting a bigger national tv contract.

If they do extremely well, they might be able to present an expansion plan to the networks to help entice a bigger contract.

If they hold the 1.7m number, (with what I expect is good demographics), they are going to get a tv contract that pays real money.   If they continue to drop at the rate they have the first two weeks, I will reevaluate when ever bottom is found.

 
WDIK2 said:
Bumping from page 3.  Did anyone watch yesterday?  :oldunsure:  
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I only watched for like 3 seconds, too much soccer on yesterday.  The NY game was extremely bad optics for the league.  Tiny crowd (way smaller than the announced 12k) in a massive stadium is the exact formula for killing atmosphere.

I did see the St Louis crowd was excellent again and only dropped a minuscule amount from its opening day attendance.

It appears the two weak spots attendance wise so far are LA and NY.

 
NewlyRetired said:
I only watched for like 3 seconds, too much soccer on yesterday.  The NY game was extremely bad optics for the league.  Tiny crowd (way smaller than the announced 12k) in a massive stadium is the exact formula for killing atmosphere.

I did see the St Louis crowd was excellent again and only dropped a minuscule amount from its opening day attendance.

It appears the two weak spots attendance wise so far are LA and NY.
Click to expand...
I was at a gathering of about 40 people yesterday that had a TV on with the  St Louis game.  I was the only one even paying minimal attention to it, which means I saw about 8 plays.  It was more of a NASCAR crowd, but the rest of the people couldn't have cared less.

You're right about small crowds killing the atmosphere.  It also hurts the TV viewing interest.

 
NewlyRetired said:
I only watched for like 3 seconds, too much soccer on yesterday.  The NY game was extremely bad optics for the league.  Tiny crowd (way smaller than the announced 12k) in a massive stadium is the exact formula for killing atmosphere.

I did see the St Louis crowd was excellent again and only dropped a minuscule amount from its opening day attendance.

It appears the two weak spots attendance wise so far are LA and NY.
Click to expand...
I don’t understand why the XFL went to those giant, saturated markets. StLouis and San Antonio (in the AAF) proved that there is interest in some of these “neglected” NFL markets. Put the teams there instead. 

 
I was just reading that on top of the large rental fees the XFL is paying in DC, they are also on the hook for resurfacing the field (a little north of a million) right after their last regular season game.

If the DC team makes the semi final for the XFL playoffs, they either need to change their date or find another venue as Audi field is already booked for that date.

If they do change their date and play in Audi, they are responsible for resurfacing a second time, which is another huge cost.

Renting stadiums is one of the most difficult parts of making start up leagues work from a financial point of view.

 
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joey said:
I don’t understand why the XFL went to those giant, saturated markets. StLouis and San Antonio (in the AAF) proved that there is interest in some of these “neglected” NFL markets. Put the teams there instead. 
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I watch a lot of start up leagues do this.   And they always say the same thing, they have to be in NY and LA for the sponsorship deals and any potential tv deal.   

And yet those markets, like you said, are so hard to crack, that the whole venture can suffer.

 
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NewlyRetired said:
I only watched for like 3 seconds, too much soccer on yesterday.  The NY game was extremely bad optics for the league.  Tiny crowd (way smaller than the announced 12k) in a massive stadium is the exact formula for killing atmosphere.

I did see the St Louis crowd was excellent again and only dropped a minuscule amount from its opening day attendance.

It appears the two weak spots attendance wise so far are LA and NY.
Click to expand...
I get a team in NY but why at that gigantic stadium that is extraordinarily out of the way to even go see the Giants or Jets?

 
Capella said:
I get a team in NY but why at that gigantic stadium that is extraordinarily out of the way to even go see the Giants or Jets?
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Exactly. Make a deal with the MLS and only use their stadiums. Nice size.  Newer.  Good vibe. (I’ve only been to the one in San Jose so I might be generalizing too much). That’s the approach that I think the XFL needs to take. 

 
From what little I've seen, I like it. The format is better than NFL with the kickoffs and XP options.

The talent isn't good though. If they can bring that up, it's a winner

 
One weird thing is you can tell the camera operators have obviously been told to limit shots of empty seats. So the cameramen really do their best not to show the upper decks. 

But just watched Dallas kick a field goal and the camera refused to follow the ball into the air because it would’ve shown the empty upper deck. So you just had to take the announcers word that the kick was good. 

 
Not really an XFL question, more pro football in general.  Anyone have any idea what "Hurry hurry" means when the quarterback says it at the line?  First guy I remember doing it was Peyton Manning.  It's not always said when the play clock is running out.  Multiple teams in multiple leagues use it. Seems strange.

 
facook said:
Not really an XFL question, more pro football in general.  Anyone have any idea what "Hurry hurry" means when the quarterback says it at the line?  First guy I remember doing it was Peyton Manning.  It's not always said when the play clock is running out.  Multiple teams in multiple leagues use it. Seems strange.
Click to expand...
Probably expediting the snap count.

 
12k in a Tampa and 18 in Dallas. Tough expecting a crowd in Tampa for an 0-3 team playing at 7 pm on a Sunday. Don’t know why they set that up like that. 

 
Someone was saying it last week but the QB play is really killing the on field product. 

Is it just me or does it seem like ####ty NFL QBs do better against good NFL defenses than XFL  QBs do against their mediocre defenses?

 
Here is an update on the TV trend.  We still have not found the baseline but that may emerge soon as the week to week drop is slowing.

ABC:

Week One: 3.3m viewers

Week Two: 2.4m viewers

Week Three: 1.9m viewers

Week Four: 1.6m viewers

Fox:

Week One: 3.3m viewers

Week Two: 2.3m viewers

Week Three: 2.0m viewers

Week Four: 1.8m viewers

 
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