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Lamb vs Jeudy, who you like? (1 Viewer)

grateful zed said:
so, what's the consensus?
Consensus is that it's so close it's basically 50/50.  Some have a strong view one way or the other.  Other's will follow what someone else said, and get burned by it.  

 
How do we view the level of competition both Jeudy and Lamb played against? Aren’t SEC defenses way better?

 
How do we view the level of competition both Jeudy and Lamb played against? Aren’t SEC defenses way better?
Yes, they are. PFF had an interesting article yesterday about all the receivers, but I think it's behind a paywall. Generally Jeudy ran routes all over the field, Lamb ran them from the left side of the alignment of the offense. Those were two things that jumped out at me. Today, they're doing Jeudy vs. Lamb behind the wall.

 
Yes, they are. PFF had an interesting article yesterday about all the receivers, but I think it's behind a paywall. Generally Jeudy ran routes all over the field, Lamb ran them from the left side of the alignment of the offense. Those were two things that jumped out at me. Today, they're doing Jeudy vs. Lamb behind the wall.
Due to some of the schemes and defenses in PAC 12 and BIG 12 is anyone else worried about Lamb because of Corey Coleman?

 
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Due to some of the schemes and defenses in PAC 12 and BIG 12 is anyone else worried about Lamb because of Corey Coleman?
I don't really see the comparison. I wouldn't hold a conference, especially when its still a major conference, against a guy. Oklahoma plays plenty of good teams, and has had plenty of WR's find success in the NFL in recent years, including Hollywood Brown, Dede Westbrook, and Sterling Shepard, and Lamb is a better(probably much better) prospect than any of them were.

Full disclosure, I was a fan of Coleman's coming out. I think he fell into a triple whammy of being drafted by the worst HC in the NFL, on a team without a decent QB, and then immediately breaking his hand, and then re-breaking it again. Don't get me wrong, he was a bust, but he had an inordinate amount of bad luck in there too. 

 
Coleman was also a head case idiot. 

Lamb and Jeudy are both studs.  They may both be early first round picks with good testing results.  I think I slightly prefer Lamb but both are great. 

 
Full disclosure, I was a fan of Coleman's coming out. I think he fell into a triple whammy of being drafted by the worst HC in the NFL, on a team without a decent QB, and then immediately breaking his hand, and then re-breaking it again. Don't get me wrong, he was a bust, but he had an inordinate amount of bad luck in there too. 
There is another factor, a factor which leads IMO to a high bust rate and is almost impossible for those of us on the outside to ever factor into the equation and that is simply work ethic.  Not all young 20 year olds respond the same when you give them $10+M  guaranteed. Some want more, some lose drive and motivation.  I was actually wondering this the other day, thinking in terms of could that actually be some small reason so many WR's drafted in round two outperform those drafted in round 1? Probably not, and if so small, but first round WR's get a nice 4 year guaranteed contract and team controls them for year 5 while the second round guy gets paid usually barely over $1M a year if that and knows in year 5 he's an UFA.

Sorry to get off Juedy vs Lamb topic.

 
There is another factor, a factor which leads IMO to a high bust rate and is almost impossible for those of us on the outside to ever factor into the equation and that is simply work ethic.  Not all young 20 year olds respond the same when you give them $10+M  guaranteed. Some want more, some lose drive and motivation.  I was actually wondering this the other day, thinking in terms of could that actually be some small reason so many WR's drafted in round two outperform those drafted in round 1? Probably not, and if so small, but first round WR's get a nice 4 year guaranteed contract and team controls them for year 5 while the second round guy gets paid usually barely over $1M a year if that and knows in year 5 he's an UFA.

Sorry to get off Juedy vs Lamb topic.
True, you can't measure heart. 

 
Jeudy's route running, looking at PFF's article yesterday behind the paywall, was sick. One move was breathtaking.

I'm definitely in a Jeduy over Lamb camp. Whether that means I like him better than Sehnault, Reagor, or Higgins?

God, I can't help shake Higgins's hands, contested catches, high points, and aDOT in college. But he may be another Kevin White, which scares me.

Anyone run numbers on those two and say I'm missing that comparison badly?

 
Jeudy's route running, looking at PFF's article yesterday behind the paywall, was sick. One move was breathtaking.

I'm definitely in a Jeduy over Lamb camp. Whether that means I like him better than Sehnault, Reagor, or Higgins?

God, I can't help shake Higgins's hands, contested catches, high points, and aDOT in college. But he may be another Kevin White, which scares me.

Anyone run numbers on those two and say I'm missing that comparison badly?
One big positive in Tee’s favor compared to White is his age. White was a 22 year old senior when he finally became a difference maker in college. Tee was a star at age 19 in his sophomore season. 

 
One big positive in Tee’s favor compared to White is his age. White was a 22 year old senior when he finally became a difference maker in college. Tee was a star at age 19 in his sophomore season. 
Ah, I see that. I see where you can get Higgins's breakout age, how about White?

eta* Ah, I see. Roto Underworld. 

 
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Jeudy's route running, looking at PFF's article yesterday behind the paywall, was sick. One move was breathtaking.

I'm definitely in a Jeduy over Lamb camp. Whether that means I like him better than Sehnault, Reagor, or Higgins?

God, I can't help shake Higgins's hands, contested catches, high points, and aDOT in college. But he may be another Kevin White, which scares me.

Anyone run numbers on those two and say I'm missing that comparison badly?
I agree with everything you said except Higgins. He’s the real deal, he is talented and very well could possibly have a better NFL and fantasy career.

Tex

 
I agree with everything you said except Higgins. He’s the real deal, he is talented and very well could possibly have a better NFL and fantasy career.

Tex
Oh, I love Higgins. I don't want to talk too much about personal draft or trade strategy, but combine-pending, it might involve him. 

 
He didn't look very good in the championship game, but that's just one game.
Unfortunately, for me, that is what sticks out the most about him. Like you said, he just didn’t look like anything of note in that game. 
 

 
Tee did end the year on a rough note. He was banged up in the NC game and had a matchup against a 5 star NFL CB prospect in Okudah the week before. However, if we look at the whole profile, it is easy to see IMO why he's a really good NFL prospect. Metric wise, he crushes breakout age (doing so for a historically talented Clemson team) and had solid relative production. He is young, has great NFL size at 6'4" 215. In film, he looks to have some speed and he definitely is a vertical contested catch monster. We will see how he tests, but there looks to be a lot of AJ Green adjacent skills with him. 

 
Yes, they are. PFF had an interesting article yesterday about all the receivers, but I think it's behind a paywall. Generally Jeudy ran routes all over the field, Lamb ran them from the left side of the alignment of the offense. Those were two things that jumped out at me. Today, they're doing Jeudy vs. Lamb behind the wall.
This doesn't seem right considering I can find quotes of articles by pff saying that Lamb ran a very diverse route tree.

According to Pro Football Focus, Lamb's 62 receptions for 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2019 were very diverse. He ran just about every route on the tree and had only five dropped balls. Of his receiving yards, 401 came on deep balls, and 311 yards came from the slot.
If all of this was was from the left side of the formation how hard could it be to run the same set of diverse routes from the other side of the field?

What was the time frame that they were talking about in the article you read? Was it just part of the 2019 season? All of 2019? All of Lambs career?

It would not surprise me if the author may have bent the data to meet that narrative.

I don't believe it.

 
This doesn't seem right considering I can find quotes of articles by pff saying that Lamb ran a very diverse route tree.

If all of this was was from the left side of the formation how hard could it be to run the same set of diverse routes from the other side of the field?

What was the time frame that they were talking about in the article you read? Was it just part of the 2019 season? All of 2019? All of Lambs career?

It would not surprise me if the author may have bent the data to meet that narrative.

I don't believe it.
It was a heat graph of all targets and routes run, IIRC. I'm at dinner. I'll find the link for Edge Subscribers.

 
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Look at this highlight reel. Over half of the big plays in the first two minutes are on the right side of the field.

My guess is whoever said that is trying to tank Lambs value or they are just really wrong, which is sad when they have access to so much information.

 
There is another factor, a factor which leads IMO to a high bust rate and is almost impossible for those of us on the outside to ever factor into the equation and that is simply work ethic.  Not all young 20 year olds respond the same when you give them $10+M  guaranteed. Some want more, some lose drive and motivation.  I was actually wondering this the other day, thinking in terms of could that actually be some small reason so many WR's drafted in round two outperform those drafted in round 1? Probably not, and if so small, but first round WR's get a nice 4 year guaranteed contract and team controls them for year 5 while the second round guy gets paid usually barely over $1M a year if that and knows in year 5 he's an UFA.

Sorry to get off Juedy vs Lamb topic.
I think there is something to this.

The WR who don't get drafted in the 1st round can have a chip on their shoulder because of that, and realize they have to show out to earn a starting spot on their team. A 1st rounder can rest on that achievement somewhat because the team is so commuted to them, they will get lots of chances to prove they belong.

I don't think it is just a recent phenomena either. Seems like it has happened quite a few times in NFL history. I don't think it is all just the teams getting this very important decision wrong.

 
Look at this highlight reel. Over half of the big plays in the first two minutes are on the right side of the field.

My guess is whoever said that is trying to tank Lambs value or they are just really wrong, which is sad when they have access to so much information.
Ceedee Lamb, Oklahoma

Ceedee Lamb’s role within the Oklahoma offense was an outside receiver who lined up almost exclusively at the left side of the field. From that alignment, he mostly ran go and post routes (34% of the time), hitches and comebacks (20% of the time) or prepared himself to catch a bubble screen (10% of the time). He ran 46% of his routes deeper than 15 yards and had an average depth of target of 14 yards. This would project him as an outside receiver who can attack downfield all over the map (provided he lines up at both sides) but also one who can also be used as a weapon with the ball in his hands on screen passes or jet motion. - PFF

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-finding-nfl-comps-for-wr-prospects-through-wr-clustering

 
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By the way, when I post something, I'm really going on the source's word for it. It's pretty clear from both the wording of "lined up almost exclusively at the left side of the field" and the heat graph that accompanies it, that they're thinking this to be the case. I trust PFF, but they could indeed be very wrong here. I apologize -- I'm just trying to bring sourced material to the fore here. If they prove themselves inaccurate, the best thing to hope for is to catch it like you seem to have.

Thanks. 

 
Yeah the phrase almost exclusively is a oxymoron.

The heat map on the left shows he lined up on the left more than the right.

The heat map on the right shows he was targeted in the middle of the field more than anywhere else.

The author is also talking about 2019 exclusively. Lamb had two other good seasons that seems important to consider as well I think.

He has the data, why not just say exactly what percentage of the routes in 2019 were from the left side instead of leaving the reader to wonder from vague data in the heat maps? 

 
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I don't know Lamb's true measurements.  I've seen both 6'2" and 6'2.5", and weights from 189 to 195.  When you see him play, he doesn't look like a beanpole.  Let's see how he measures up at the combine.  

 
I don't know Lamb's true measurements.  I've seen both 6'2" and 6'2.5", and weights from 189 to 195.  When you see him play, he doesn't look like a beanpole.  Let's see how he measures up at the combine.  
The combine will be pretty important for him given how strong this WR class is. If he comes in light and runs slow, he could get jumped by a couple WRs IMO.

 
I was actually wondering this the other day, thinking in terms of could that actually be some small reason so many WR's drafted in round two outperform those drafted in round 1?
How many?  And what are the qualifications on this statement?
Are you saying that Round 2 WRs frequently outperform the guy who was drafted at WR1, or that they frequently outperform some of the guys drafted in the 1st round?

And frankly, what's the true difference between a WR drafted somewhere in the 2nd round and one of the WRs drafted later in the 1st round?  Or anywhere in the 1st round?

 
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How many?  
I don't have time to compile a long list right now but here is a list of all the WR drafted

2019 had Marquise Brown and Harry as 1st rounders compared to Deebo and AJ Brown in the 2nd round. There were some 2nd round guys who didn't do much too, but clearly those two 2nd rounders and likely Metcalf as well did better as rookies and look to have better careers ahead of them. Still early of course a lot can change.

2018 the orders seems fine and the two 1st rounders were better than the guys after them.

2017 JuJu and Kupp were the best from that class and they were later picks at the position.

2016 is the main example I was thinking of. 4 first round WR WIll Fuller has been the best of them. Michael Thomas drafted in the 2nd round has smoked everyone.

You could go through this and calculate the career AV of each player maybe skipping the last 5 years and compare them. I am guessing the 1st rounders come out on top but it may be closer than people think.

 
2017 JuJu and Kupp were the best from that class and they were later picks at the position.
Unfortunately, Kupp was a 3rd round pick (along with Godwin and Golladay!). 

Curtis Samuel would qualify, though.  Not sure he's heads and tails better than Mike Williams in the 1st round, and do we really know if John Ross is a bust at this point?  I mean he's been fairly productive when he's actually been on the field.

Corey Davis was a massive miss, but Zay Jones in the 2nd also did nothing. 

So I got Juju outperforming all 1st rounders.  Samuel would likely be my next choice, but Williams is close. 

Overall, pretty awful results for the 5, 7, and 9 overall picks.

 
How many?  And what are the qualifications on this statement?
Are you saying that Round 2 WRs frequently outperform the guy who was drafted at WR1, or that they frequently outperform some of the guys drafted in the 1st round?

 
Saying a lot of WR's drafted in round two have been outperforming WR's drafted in round one, certainly more WR's I'd term as having success in their careers.

Over last 5 years these are IMO the top WR's drafted in round one:

Amari, DJ Moore, Ridley. Those might be the only 3 some would consider a success.  I would not mind if someone wanted to include Marquise Brown because if I identifying success as does the team that drafted them feel like they got the player they drafted  I think Marquise Brown would still be someone the Ravens feel confident selecting.. I refuse to include Devante Parker because he did not reach success until he was on his second contract. So we got 3-4 what I'd term successful WR's drafted in round 1, only two of which have even hit 1,000+ yards on their rookie contracts. Won't include Perrriman either should he break out for someone next year.  Out of these 5 years that includes 17 WR's drafted in round one.

In that same time span we've had 22 WR's drafted in round 2 so we got a slightly bigger group to work with.

From that group I'd label these as successful picks: Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, JuJu, Sutton, Chark, Deebo,  AJ Brown and Metcalf. I think those are without a doubt successful WR's.  Using the same Marquise Brown thought process of would the team that drafted the player still feel confident in the pick I think you could stretch this out to include Sterling Shepard and Christian Kirk.

 
So we got 3-4 what I'd term successful WR's drafted in round 1, only two of which have even hit 1,000+ yards on their rookie contracts. Won't include Perrriman either should he break out for someone next year.  Out of these 5 years that includes 17 WR's drafted in round one.

In that same time span we've had 22 WR's drafted in round 2 so we got a slightly bigger group to work with.

From that group I'd label these as successful picks: Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, JuJu, Sutton, Chark, Deebo,  AJ Brown and Metcalf. I think those are without a doubt successful WR's.  Using the same Marquise Brown thought process of would the team that drafted the player still feel confident in the pick I think you could stretch this out to include Sterling Shepard and Christian Kirk.
For the sake of argument, I'm marking the entire 2019 class as Incomplete, but I am not disagreeing with your analysis.  I just think it's too early to make the call.  But from where I stand, the 2019 2nd round is what makes or breaks your entire argument.  2015-2018 1st and 2nd round WRs are listed below, and they look pretty close.  More WRs were taken in the 1st round, with spectacularly poor results, but there have really only been more hits in the 2nd round on a per capita basis.


1st Round
HIT - 4 Amari Cooper
HIT - 7 Mike Williams
HIT - 24 DJ Moore, 26 Calvin Ridley

MISS - 7 Kevin White, 14 DeVante Parker, 20 Nelson Agholor, 26 Breshad Perriman, 29 Phillip Dorsett
MISS - 15 Corey Coleman, 21 Will Fuller, 22 Josh Doctson 23 Laquon Treadwell
MISS - 5 Corey Davis, 9 John Ross

2nd Round

HIT - 47 Michael Thomas
HIT - 62 Juju
HIT - 40 Courtland Sutton, 61 DJ Chark

MISS - 40 Dorial Green-Beckham, 41 Devin Funchess
MISS - 40 Sterling Shepard
MISS - 37 Zay Jones, 40 Curtis Samuel
MISS - 44 Dante Pettis, 47 Christian Kirk, 51 Anthony Miller, 60 James Washington

 
For the sake of argument, I'm marking the entire 2019 class as Incomplete, but I am not disagreeing with your analysis.  I just think it's too early to make the call.  But from where I stand, the 2019 2nd round is what makes or breaks your entire argument.  2015-2018 1st and 2nd round WRs are listed below, and they look pretty close.  More WRs were taken in the 1st round, with spectacularly poor results, but there have really only been more hits in the 2nd round on a per capita basis.


1st Round
HIT - 4 Amari Cooper
HIT - 7 Mike Williams
HIT - 24 DJ Moore, 26 Calvin Ridley

MISS - 7 Kevin White, 14 DeVante Parker, 20 Nelson Agholor, 26 Breshad Perriman, 29 Phillip Dorsett
MISS - 15 Corey Coleman, 21 Will Fuller, 22 Josh Doctson 23 Laquon Treadwell
MISS - 5 Corey Davis, 9 John Ross

2nd Round

HIT - 47 Michael Thomas
HIT - 62 Juju
HIT - 40 Courtland Sutton, 61 DJ Chark

MISS - 40 Dorial Green-Beckham, 41 Devin Funchess
MISS - 40 Sterling Shepard
MISS - 37 Zay Jones, 40 Curtis Samuel
MISS - 44 Dante Pettis, 47 Christian Kirk, 51 Anthony Miller, 60 James Washington
Ok and yes we'll safely agree to disagree.

 
tangfoot said:
Unfortunately, Kupp was a 3rd round pick (along with Godwin and Golladay!). 
What meno was talking about was just 1st vs 2nd round picks thats true.

Another way to look at this would be to consider the order the WR are drafted regardless of round and Kupp was the 7th WR selected that year.

Its still maybe too soon to judge these players careers yet, which is why I suggested looking at guys from 5 or more years ago.

I recall workdog did a career VBD analysis where he structured it this way instead of by draft round. There were some spikes there that show just the randomness of doing it that way, but I found it interesting.

Here is what that looked like for the WR.

This data is 5 years old now, so it covers the time frame I think we are interested in.

 
47.1% of wrs drafted in the 1st round had at least 1 top 24 season (since 2010)

40.5% of wrs drafted in the 2nd round had at least 1 top 24 season (since 2010)
I think this is largely due to teams drafting combine studs who aren't actually good in the first round pretty often.  Maybe not good is a stretch but I'm thinking of the deep threat types who go earlier than they should. 

I wonder how these numbers look if you remove "dumb reach by a dumb team" types from the equation?  That's pretty subjective, but it seems pretty frequent that teams are drafting the wrong WRs in round one.  Look no further than 2019.

 
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I think this is largely due to teams drafting combine studs who aren't actually good in the first round pretty often.  Maybe not good is a stretch but I'm thinking of the deep threat types who go earlier than they should. 

I wonder how these numbers look if you remove "dumb reach by a dumb team" types from the equation?  That's pretty subjective, but it seems pretty frequent that teams are drafting the wrong WRs in round one.  Look no further than 2019.
I agree with doing this exercise by removing those reaches.  The one I think of is Dorsett.  As a Colt fan this came out of nowhere and feel he was overdrafted.  I think the issue would be that doing this exercise would assume the fantasy community knows better than NFL teams.  

 
I agree with doing this exercise by removing those reaches.  The one I think of is Dorsett.  As a Colt fan this came out of nowhere and feel he was overdrafted.  I think the issue would be that doing this exercise would assume the fantasy community knows better than NFL teams.  
Yeah its subjective, but I think there are quite a few of these that many viewed as a dumb pick even at the time. 

Corey Coleman and John Ross are up there for sure.  Dumbest of the dumb dumb franchises reaching.   Dorsett was drafted by a failure idiot GM also.  Most likely the community does know a lot better than those franchises in those years. 

Another factor is that is getting drafted by one of these terrible teams a heavy influence in the success of the prospect?  I think it does to some degree.  Hard to know though.  

It's pre combine still but this year's candidate for this is KJ Hamler.  Decent prospect, but we know he's a speed guy who will likely have a great combine.  If the Redskins or Jets draft him in the first round, do we put him ahead of prospects we like way more now but who will have lower than first round draft capital? 

 
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Yeah its subjective, but I think there are quite a few of these that many viewed as a dumb pick even at the time. 

Corey Coleman and John Ross are up there for sure.  Dumbest of the dumb dumb franchises reaching.   Dorsett was drafted by a failure idiot GM also.  Most likely the community does know a lot better than those franchises in those years. 

Another factor is that is getting drafted by one of these terrible teams a heavy influence in the success of the prospect?  I think it does to some degree.  Hard to know though.  

It's pre combine still but this year's candidate for this is KJ Hamler.  Decent prospect, but we know he's a speed guy who will likely have a great combine.  If the Redskins or Jets draft him in the first round, do we put him ahead of prospects we like way more now but who will have lower than first round draft capital? 
I think this is a good thought process and something to be aware of. More and more I have started to consider the source (organization who is drafting the player) and made that a factor in my decision. There is no real way to quantify it but the “Al Davis” method of drafting has to be a factor. Although the Skins did outsmart me with their McLaurin pick as I was not real high on him.

 
kittenmittens said:
Yeah its subjective, but I think there are quite a few of these that many viewed as a dumb pick even at the time. 

Corey Coleman and John Ross are up there for sure.  Dumbest of the dumb dumb franchises reaching.   Dorsett was drafted by a failure idiot GM also.  Most likely the community does know a lot better than those franchises in those years. 

Another factor is that is getting drafted by one of these terrible teams a heavy influence in the success of the prospect?  I think it does to some degree.  Hard to know though.  

It's pre combine still but this year's candidate for this is KJ Hamler.  Decent prospect, but we know he's a speed guy who will likely have a great combine.  If the Redskins or Jets draft him in the first round, do we put him ahead of prospects we like way more now but who will have lower than first round draft capital? 
What is it about Ross and Coleman that made them obvious reaches (for the 1st round)? 

John Ross certainly was overdrafted going top 10 but blazing speed, 94th percentile breakout age, 65th percentile dominator, 1200/18 in his final season, special teams gamebreaker, Lance Zierlein from NFL. com called him an instant starter, comped him to Desean Jackson, SI had him as their 15th best prospect in the draft, PFF described as special. 

Corey Coleman basically came up 90th percentile in every combine drill- his worst was the 40 where he ran 4.42, 90th percentile breakout age and 59th dominator, 2600/32 from scrimmage as a sophomore and junior, PFF said he was clearly a 1st round talent in any draft year, Bleacher Report comped him to Steve Smith and labled him as a day 1 starter, Lance Z had him as a 1st or 2nd round pick and one of the top playmakers in the draft. 

Even Dorsett wasn't that crazy. The crazy part is that it was the Colts who seemed to have so many other needs and a redundant player in Hilton. Dorsett blazed at 4.33 and showed incredible agility in the combine drills, 60th percentile breakout age, 74th percentile dominator, Lance Z had him as a round 1 or 2 guy and quoted an NFL Exec who said he was a round 1 guy with elite speed and separation, Pete Prisco from CBS Sports gave the Colts an A for the pick saying it made the Colts offense unfair.

I think it's totally hindsight to call these guys obvious busts or clearly bad picks. 

 
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What is it about Ross and Coleman that made them obvious reaches (for the 1st round)? 

John Ross certainly was overdrafted going top 10 but blazing speed, 94th percentile breakout age, 65th percentile dominator, 1200/18 in his final season, special teams gamebreaker, Lance Zierlein from NFL. com called him an instant starter, comped him to Desean Jackson, SI had him as their 15th best prospect in the draft, PFF described as special. 

Corey Coleman basically came up 90th percentile in every combine drill- his worst was the 40 where he ran 4.42, 90th percentile breakout age and 59th dominator, 2600/32 from scrimmage as a sophomore and junior, PFF said he was clearly a 1st round talent in any draft year, Bleacher Report comped him to Steve Smith and labled him as a day 1 starter, Lance Z had him as a 1st or 2nd round pick and one of the top playmakers in the draft. 

Even Dorsett wasn't that crazy. The crazy part is that it was the Colts who seemed to have so many other needs and a redundant player in Hilton. Dorsett blazed at 4.33 and showed incredible agility in the combine drills, 60th percentile breakout age, 74th percentile dominator, Lance Z had him as a round 1 or 2 guy and quoted an NFL Exec who said he was a round 1 guy with elite speed and separation, Pete Prisco from CBS Sports gave the Colts an A for the pick saying it made the Colts offense unfair.

I think it's totally hindsight to call these guys obvious busts or clearly bad picks. 
This is exactly what I'm talking about.  You're citing combine numbers to justify the picks, and I am saying that's exactly what I am avoiding.  Players who were decent prospects who became top prospects after they had outstanding combines and then got over drafted by a bad team that makes bad decisions.  I'm looking for more of that in the future, and avoiding it.  I bet those same pundits are going to be gushing over Ruggs and Hamler now. 

WR is one of those positions where the combine drills really don't matter.   Dumb teams still don't realize this, and move lesser players up their board due to good combine.  They passed over Juju who had a bad combine to take the fast guys in that class.  Huge mistake.

I am sure there is some hindsight going into it,  but I never owned a single share of any of those players (Coleman/Ross/Dorsett and Doctson/Perriman too) until people dropped to waivers.   I'm saying/predicting right now that Ruggs and Hamler are the type that you don't trust the high draft capital they will get, especially if they go to a traditionally dumb franchise. 

I did get fooled by Treadwell.  He went in the first round to a smart team even after a bad combine.  I feel like this type of failed WR is way less likely than the Coleman/Doctson/Perriman/Ross/Dorsett type whose stock went way up due to combine performance.  Even when these guys succeed they are usually better in real life than fantasy. 

 
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