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All you saw in that post was combine numbers? I was including comibe numbers, season metrics, season stats and the opinions of film watchers and NFL insiders. What about the guys who did really well at the combine and significantly increased their draft stock and have been good pros? DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, DJ Chark, Courtland Sutton.
I think it would be impossible not to find at least some film watchers who like players. As I said, there will be pundits saying Ruggs and Hamler are clear 1st round picks after they blow up the combine.
FWIW, I am looking at some 2018 mocks from pre combine. You are right, Sutton was pegged properly. Moore was more of the WR3-4 and going mid 2nd so I do think his huge combine thrust him up. His dominator and breakout age were great but his raw stats weren't and lots of film guys weren't overly impressed. Same with Godwin, he was getting mocked in the 4th round pre-combine. I am not saying there isn't validity to avoid guys who shoot up boards with great combines, but if they also have good metrics and tape why avoid them?
That Robby Anderson is going to get north of ten million should tell one all one needs to know. Also, watching Will Fuller draw double coverage almost every play was something last year.
I appreciate you bring up some good points and trying to find some holes in this. I think it has to be carefully used because it's too easy to think we know better.
Yeah, nothing personal. Just have to stress test ideas like this. I do agree with you that Ruggs screams overvalued.
OK, let's start with 2015 and go back to 1990. That gives us a 25 year sample size, and allows for any late bloomers. Broken into groups of 32 (the average draft round), here are the number of WR's who have reached WR1 status:
I understand there has to be some arbitrary cut off but have any 201 pound WRs accomplished it? Sometimes we create these parameters that really don’t mean as much as we make them out to be - especially when a player’s weight can fluctuate during the course of the season. It’s not like these guys ever (where it’s announced to the public) get weighed after the combine. Different fantasy football websites can have the same guy listed at 198, 201 and 205. We see that all the time.
I think it's logical that boys turning into men that are now subject to professional trainers and have all offseason to work on their bodies add some mass. I'm not sure that it would be ten pounds but 5 pounds seems logical. I guess the main point though is when we look at these "trends" we draw arbitrary cutoff points like 200 pounds. That's a nice round number but what does it really mean? Is there really a meaningful difference between 198 and 202 pounds? The second point I'm making is I do not think we really know what weight these players are at during the course of the season. Should the Week 5 stats when a guy is at 201 be looked at differently in Week 8 when he's 199 and then again in Week 16 when he's at 200?
No worries, I appreciate you contributions. I think I overanalyzed a bit last year and am trying to hit the sweet spot this year. Trying to find where exactly that is, and I appreciate the discussions.
One of my FF downfalls is I put too much stock in stats. I am almost robotic when I draft. My teams usually end up doing well, but they are very vanilla. Maybe this year I will draft more with my gut and see how it goes.
