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Joe Bryant

How The NBA Has Changed

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Interesting - what do the red versus orange dots indicate? Was trying to figure out from the post itself and comments below.

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Analytics has definitely changed baseball and I think most people think of baseball first when they think about analytics impacting the sport, but it’s had just a big, or maybe even bigger, impact in basketball.

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Not as many scoring bigs out there these days.  Everyone wants to be Curry and Harden. 

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32 minutes ago, comfortably numb said:

Wow

That is fascinating. 

 

Mods, can you move this to the NBA forum

:lmao: It's ok. We're good. 

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23 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

Analytics has definitely changed baseball and I think most people think of baseball first when they think about analytics impacting the sport, but it’s had just a big, or maybe even bigger, impact in basketball.

Agreed. 

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It's kind of funny too in I know there are the old guys bemoaning the death of the mid range jumper.

But from Kendall Baker this morning:

1 big thing:  Average NBA team now worth $2.1B

Reproduced from Forbes; Chart: Axios Visuals

The average NBA franchise is now valued at $2.12 billion, per Forbes — a figure that has grown 476% in the past decade.

Why it matters: Thanks to the NBA's international growth and the $24 billion TV deal it signed with ESPN and Turner in 2014, team values have grown at a much faster rate than the other three major U.S. sports leagues.

NBA: 476% growth

MLB: 262% growth

NHL: 192% growth

NFL: 179% growth

Most valuable teams: The Knicks ($4.6 billion) grabbed the top spot for the fifth straight year, followed by the Lakers ($4.4 billion) and Warriors ($4.3 billion). Among all American sports, only the Cowboys ($5.5 billion) and Yankees ($4.6 billion) can rival them.

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I know China and all that has a big part of things, but if I'm an NBA exec, I have a hard time being convinced what I'm doing isn't working. 

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34 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Interesting - what do the red versus orange dots indicate? Was trying to figure out from the post itself and comments below.

Didn’t think we were allowed to discuss dots anymore. 

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2 minutes ago, bushdocda said:

Didn’t think we were allowed to discuss dots anymore. 

Hexagons then.

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2 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

The Knicks ($4.6 billion)  Lakers ($4.4 billion)  Warriors ($4.3 billion) Cowboys ($5.5 billion)  Yankees ($4.6 billion) 

One of these things is not like the others,
One of these things just doesn't belong,
Can you tell which thing is not like the others...
 

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58 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Amazing graphic showing where on the court shots are taken now vs years ago. 

https://twitter.com/kirkgoldsberry/status/1217109175894831105?s=20

For me, I think this has hurt basketball.  Now, I don't watch NBA, but love college basketball.  So I go in saying that, but I don't think analytics or the three point line hurt the game.  But the two things combined do.  

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Just now, TheIronSheik said:

For me, I think this has hurt basketball.  Now, I don't watch NBA, but love college basketball.  So I go in saying that, but I don't think analytics or the three point line hurt the game.  But the two things combined do.  

I understand the atmosphere of the arenas and tournament style appeal of the college game — I love it too and watch a ton of it. But to like that game and not watch the nba at all baffles me. The game is so much better it’s almost preposterous. I will say I don’t watch much regular season nba as there are no stakes but the playoffs are about as good as it gets. 

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3 minutes ago, Capella said:

I understand the atmosphere of the arenas and tournament style appeal of the college game — I love it too and watch a ton of it. But to like that game and not watch the nba at all baffles me. The game is so much better it’s almost preposterous. I will say I don’t watch much regular season nba as there are no stakes but the playoffs are about as good as it gets. 

For me, it seems that college basketball is still more a team game, while NBA is more of 1 on 1 matchups.  That's just my thoughts.  As a kid, I was a huge Sixers fan.  I probably stopped following NBA right around the time Barkley left the Sixers.  

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Just now, TheIronSheik said:

For me, it seems that college basketball is still more a team game, while NBA is more of 1 on 1 matchups.  That's just my thoughts.  As a kid, I was a huge Sixers fan.  I probably stopped following NBA right around the time Barkley left the Sixers.  

I agree that college basketball seems more of a team game in working the ball around. At the end of the day though, even in college, it seems very common that guys often give up shots in the paint or mid-range by kicking it out to an open guy for a three-point shot

Maybe I'm wrong though - would love to see a comparable chart for college.

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4 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

For me, it seems that college basketball is still more a team game, while NBA is more of 1 on 1 matchups.  That's just my thoughts.  As a kid, I was a huge Sixers fan.  I probably stopped following NBA right around the time Barkley left the Sixers.  

Hmm. I would say there is only one prominent hero ball team now — the rockets, and they suck to watch. The Warriors probably played the prettiest team game in basketball history before Durant (and even with him) and the Raptors of last year and this year play incredible team ball. I doubt there has ever been a better time of ball sharing in nba history. 
 

I think the idea that the nba plays hero ball is more of a 2005 thing with guys like Carmelo. 

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Useless trivia: my father was the one that started tracking offensive and defensive rebounds as part of the ABA. This was then adopted by the NBA. He also used Control Data to computerize the stats while NBA still did them manually. 

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

Amazing graphic showing where on the court shots are taken now vs years ago. 

https://twitter.com/kirkgoldsberry/status/1217109175894831105?s=20

Wondering what kind of career Kareem Jabbar would have if he was just coming into the league now.   Jabbar did not run the court well and had no outside shot.  NBA teams on offense do not want the middle clogged up anymore.  The Piston could not give away 7ft Andre Drummond who plays an old style game.

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If you're my dad, there are WAYYYYYY too many tats.

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4 minutes ago, Capella said:

Hmm. I would say there is only one prominent hero ball team now — the rockets, and they suck to watch. The Warriors probably played the prettiest team game in basketball history before Durant (and even with him) and the Raptors of last year and this year play incredible team ball. I doubt there has ever been a better time of ball sharing in nba history. 
 

I think the idea that the nba plays hero ball is more of a 2005 thing with guys like Carmelo. 

It very well could be.  But by 2005, I was already out.  And with the Warriors pretty much only losing about 20 games over a 4 year period, there really wasn't any drama to drag me back in of late.  

Honestly, as I've gotten older my sports viewing has declined across the board.  Baseball is my big one and college basketball is a far second.  After that, it drops off a cliff.  I still get ESPN score updates for all of my teams, including the NBA teams, but unless the Sixers make it to the Finals, I probably won't watch a game ever again.  

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3 minutes ago, Da Guru said:

Wondering what kind of career Kareem Jabbar would have if he was just coming into the league now.   

Walton and Lanier would be dragging him up and down the court for 48 minutes.

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Just now, TheIronSheik said:

It very well could be.  But by 2005, I was already out.  And with the Warriors pretty much only losing about 20 games over a 4 year period, there really wasn't any drama to drag me back in of late.  

Honestly, as I've gotten older my sports viewing has declined across the board.  Baseball is my big one and college basketball is a far second.  After that, it drops off a cliff.  I still get ESPN score updates for all of my teams, including the NBA teams, but unless the Sixers make it to the Finals, I probably won't watch a game ever again.  

Oh I get it. My viewing has dropped too. I pretty much absorb all CFB but only the big nfl games (non-Bucs of course). Playoffs for NBA, Bolts for hockey and bandwagon the rays for baseball — haven’t watched a non-rays regular season game in probably 20 years and likely never will again. I got stuff to do now. 
 

Anyways this is off-topic but I get what you mean. 

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23 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

For me, I think this has hurt basketball.  Now, I don't watch NBA, but love college basketball.  So I go in saying that, but I don't think analytics or the three point line hurt the game.  But the two things combined do.  

Disagree, but I know it is personal preference.  I think analytics has created a better game.  I think moving the three point line back would change the analytics a bit, and I wouldn't disagree with that.  But, watching playoff games from the 80s on NBA TV where 2 3 point attempts are made all game, and people are getting clobbered in the lane isn't necessarily a better game.

Baseball on the other hand has been made unwatchable (again, to me in my opinion) by analytics.  Baseball used to be a beautiful game made up of a million little things.  Now it is just swinging for the fences, and the rest is window dressing.

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27 minutes ago, Capella said:

I understand the atmosphere of the arenas and tournament style appeal of the college game — I love it too and watch a ton of it. But to like that game and not watch the nba at all baffles me. The game is so much better it’s almost preposterous. I will say I don’t watch much regular season nba as there are no stakes but the playoffs are about as good as it gets. 

I like both but college basketball is just way more exciting to me on every level. Obviously the players/skillsets are much greater on the NBA level but the effort and ball movement is better at the college level. It's not really close to me.

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I like both but college basketball is just way more exciting to me on every level. Obviously the players/skillsets are much greater on the NBA level but the effort and ball movement is better at the college level. It's not really close to me.

I’m sorry but the ball movement in college is just nowhere near as good as the nba. 2/3 of those games are just miserable offensive basketball. 

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4 minutes ago, Capella said:

I’m sorry but the ball movement in college is just nowhere near as good as the nba. 2/3 of those games are just miserable offensive basketball. 

I'm not saying every college basket game is a thing of beauty but overall the product is more fun to watch for me. We can agree to disagree about ball movement I guess.

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The concept of “travelling” as a violation has changed drastically over the past 20 years.

Edited by Phil Elliott
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This is the direct result of analytics...baseball has similar trends with regards to roster building/defensive alignments. It's pretty cool.

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Just say the 3 point line was taken away.  Would that move shooting out some from the lane, or would that just mean more shots in underneath?

Not that I'm advocating getting rid of the 3 point line.  Just wondering.

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9 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

Just say the 3 point line was taken away.  Would that move shooting out some from the lane, or would that just mean more shots in underneath?

Not that I'm advocating getting rid of the 3 point line.  Just wondering.

I think ball movement creates open shots and it varies where those come from.  Guys set up their movement and locations to maximize 3 pt opportunities because analytics says its better.  If the three pt line was taken away then it wouldn't matter where the shots were coming from and my guess is that the shots would move closer to the basket as that increases the likelihood of making it.  When you take out the extra point the make percentage becomes king because they are all the same.  I would expect the shot chart to start creeping closer to the basket.   

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1 hour ago, Da Guru said:

Wondering what kind of career Kareem Jabbar would have if he was just coming into the league now.   Jabbar did not run the court well and had no outside shot.  NBA teams on offense do not want the middle clogged up anymore.  The Piston could not give away 7ft Andre Drummond who plays an old style game.

It's a tough thing to say because if Jabbar was just coming in now his game would be completely different.  He was a good enough athlete that growing up in the AAU world  his game would have been tailored differently.  I would guess he would still be a top player but how he did it would be different. 

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2 hours ago, TheIronSheik said:

For me, it seems that college basketball is still more a team game, while NBA is more of 1 on 1 matchups.  That's just my thoughts.  As a kid, I was a huge Sixers fan.  I probably stopped following NBA right around the time Barkley left the Sixers.  

 

1 hour ago, zamboni said:

I agree that college basketball seems more of a team game in working the ball around. At the end of the day though, even in college, it seems very common that guys often give up shots in the paint or mid-range by kicking it out to an open guy for a three-point shot

Maybe I'm wrong though - would love to see a comparable chart for college.

 

Now think about what this has done to basketball in 5th and 7th grade.  They think they need to just shoot 3's as well.  THe problem is most are not able to.  They can barely heave it as hard as they can to hit the backboard.  College is better than the NBA about not being so 1 on 1 or 2 on 2 pick and roll.  They are different.  I can't stand the people that want to change college into the NBA.  IF you like the NBA watch the NBA, if you don't like college, don't watch college.

 

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Now the question is - do mid range jumpers become the new exploitable inefficiency? Mid ranger jumpers are bad because you only make 47% of them (or whatever) so your EV is below 1 point. And you are better off doing a layup or 3. 

But that 47% assumes you are guarded. But teams are starting to switch up how they play defense - asking you to take those mid range jumpers. So can you adjust and exploit that?

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I also think some of the complaints about the NBA are a little 5 years ago. Sure there is more 1-on-1 than college - because the players are better and more athletic and able to do it. But there is also plenty of ball movement and lots of plays being run. Its a pretty great game right now.

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6 minutes ago, dino259 said:

 

 

Now think about what this has done to basketball in 5th and 7th grade.  They think they need to just shoot 3's as well.  THe problem is most are not able to.  They can barely heave it as hard as they can to hit the backboard.  College is better than the NBA about not being so 1 on 1 or 2 on 2 pick and roll.  They are different.  I can't stand the people that want to change college into the NBA.  IF you like the NBA watch the NBA, if you don't like college, don't watch college.

 

Exactly.  No one is trying to make college basketball more like the NFL.  So why are they continually trying to make CBB more like the NBA.  Stop it.  ESPN and their people seem to be the driving force behind this movement and I hate them all for suggesting it.  

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12 minutes ago, whoknew said:

Now the question is - do mid range jumpers become the new exploitable inefficiency? Mid ranger jumpers are bad because you only make 47% of them (or whatever) so your EV is below 1 point. And you are better off doing a layup or 3. 

But that 47% assumes you are guarded. But teams are starting to switch up how they play defense - asking you to take those mid range jumpers. So can you adjust and exploit that?

If there becomes a point that the make percentage increases enough to offset moving back X feet for an extra point then analytics will swing to the mid range jumper.  It is all about maximizing your points.  At some point it makes more sense to do that if the make percentage is high enough.

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7 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

Exactly.  No one is trying to make college basketball more like the NFL.  So why are they continually trying to make CBB more like the NBA.  Stop it.  ESPN and their people seem to be the driving force behind this movement and I hate them all for suggesting it.  

That might make the game more interesting though.  A hybrid of college basketball and NFL football could be the next huge sport!

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2 minutes ago, Gally said:

That might make the game more interesting though.  A hybrid of college basketball and NFL football could be the next huge sport!

A good example of where the voice in my head was way ahead of what my fingers were typing. 

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1 hour ago, DMXATF23 said:

This is the direct result of analytics...baseball has similar trends with regards to roster building/defensive alignments. It's pretty cool.

I''d assume you're right. The math says 3 point shots give teams the best chance. 

What are some of the specific changes in baseball you're talking about? 

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4 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

I''d assume you're right. The math says 3 point shots give teams the best chance. 

What are some of the specific changes in baseball you're talking about? 

Typically it is doing away with bunting, stealing, and just making contact.  Essentially it says swing for the fences at all times as that leads to the most runs.  Its a lot of the reasons why strikeouts are way up and most runs are scored through HR's.  No more small ball.  Earl Weaver was way ahead of the times (pitching, defense and the 3-run homer)…..

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3 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

I''d assume you're right. The math says 3 point shots give teams the best chance. 

What are some of the specific changes in baseball you're talking about? 

The shift

Launch angle on swings

 

Mods, I'm confused now. Move this to the baseball forum!

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3 hours ago, Capella said:

I understand the atmosphere of the arenas and tournament style appeal of the college game — I love it too and watch a ton of it. But to like that game and not watch the nba at all baffles me. The game is so much better it’s almost preposterous. I will say I don’t watch much regular season nba as there are no stakes but the playoffs are about as good as it gets. 

Really - Wow - Check out the NHL playoffs..

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Just now, Kuz said:

Really - Wow - Check out the NHL playoffs..

Hockey is the best spectator sport there is...…….and playoff hockey is even more intense......

 

I think we can get a couple more sports in this thread......cricket, curling, team handball?

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3 minutes ago, Gally said:

Hockey is the best spectator sport there is...…….and playoff hockey is even more intense......

 

I think we can get a couple more sports in this thread......cricket, curling, team handball?

I may have sent the wrong message.. I'm saying the NHL Playoffs are the best of our top 4 sports.. In my opinion the NBA is almost unwatchable

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Kuz said:

I may have sent the wrong message.. I'm saying the NHL Playoffs are the best of our top 4 sports.. In my opinion the NBA is almost unwatchable

 

 

I know.....I was agreeing with you.  Maybe I sent the wrong message....hahahaha

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3 hours ago, Capella said:

Hmm. I would say there is only one prominent hero ball team now — the rockets, and they suck to watch. The Warriors probably played the prettiest team game in basketball history before Durant (and even with him) and the Raptors of last year and this year play incredible team ball. I doubt there has ever been a better time of ball sharing in nba history. 
 

I think the idea that the nba plays hero ball is more of a 2005 thing with guys like Carmelo. 

i forget which podcast i heard it on, but along the lines of the "hero ball" and how it has changed the game, there was a pretty big change scouts and teams have seen with players and how they are being coached now. They focused mostly on middle and high school age programs, but they talked about how you can walk into a gym with most of these programs and all the kids are practicing 3's. they mentioned how there is a big drop off with FT shooting and percentage with those age groups, and all they are being coached to do is shoot 3's 

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