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Juxtatarot

Where would the Dow be if Hillary were president?

Where would the Dow be if Hillary were president?  

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Obviously it’s unknowable but please just make your best educated guess from how you think things would have turned out in a Clinton presidency.

Let’s assume Hillary squeaked out the victory by narrowly winning those midwestern swing states.  The House and Senate would still be controlled by Republicans starting in 2017.  Results of the 2018 election are up to you.

Edited by Juxtatarot

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I voted for Hillary, and I am pretty sure Dow would be pretty close to a continuation of Obama era.  Which is to say right about where it is now. 

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I voted 30,000-39,999 but that's only because the buckets kind of suck.  The Dow is currently a little over 29,000.  I think it would be in about the same place regardless of who was president, but maybe a little ahead because no other president would have started a trade war with China.  So I rounded up to 30K which knocked my vote into the next higher bracket.

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I voted 25-29.   Close to where it is now but probably a little lower since we wouldn't have had the deficit funded tax cuts for the rich so not as many corporate stock buy backs.

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1 minute ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I voted 30,000-39,999 but that's only because the buckets kind of suck.  The Dow is currently a little over 29,000.  I think it would be in about the same place regardless of who was president, but maybe a little ahead because no other president would have started a trade war with China.  So I rounded up to 30K which knocked my vote into the next higher bracket.

Sorry, I accidentally had overlapping buckets.  I corrected. I think your vote is in the right place. (Although my buckets might still suck regardless.)

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4 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Sadly, we'll never know.

ehh, i am currently working on a multiverse viewer with Elon Musk and some 12 year old in the republic of Georgia.  stay tuned.

also, since it is possible to view the multiverse, we actually do know that we can, will and do know.  past is was now.

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43 minutes ago, Marauder said:

I voted 25-29.   Close to where it is now but probably a little lower since we wouldn't have had the deficit funded tax cuts for the rich so not as many corporate stock buy backs.

 

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52 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I voted 30,000-39,999 but that's only because the buckets kind of suck.  The Dow is currently a little over 29,000.  I think it would be in about the same place regardless of who was president, but maybe a little ahead because no other president would have started a trade war with China.  So I rounded up to 30K which knocked my vote into the next higher bracket.

Yeah, I think you should set it as % of current.  I would say about 3% better.

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52 minutes ago, Marauder said:

I voted 25-29.   Close to where it is now but probably a little lower since we wouldn't have had the deficit funded tax cuts for the rich so not as many corporate stock buy backs.

This is where I'm at.  A little lower than today, but not outrageously so, I'd think.

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I imagine it would still be in New York but we will never know for suretain 

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about the same place (voted 25-29)....only real difference is I don't think there would have been as many large swings up and down.

Edited by The Commish

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The DOW would no longer exist under a Communist Dictstorship.  :shrug:

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47 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I imagine it would still be in New York but we will never know for suretain 

Who was Que Suretain Suretain? 

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7 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Who was Que Suretain Suretain? 

Whatever will be, will be. 

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probably pretty close...agree with others here on that.

Maybe even the same deficits...thought, instead of tax breaks we have seen...we would probably have a change in healthcare.  Whether that is some other form or improvements to the ACA.

 

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1 hour ago, Long Ball Larry said:

ehh, i am currently working on a multiverse viewer with Elon Musk and some 12 year old in the republic of Georgia.  stay tuned.

also, since it is possible to view the multiverse, we actually do know that we can, will and do know.  past is was now.

What this guy said.

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I voted for Hillary.  I think the market would be significantly lower under her.  The tax cuts did spur stock buybacks by corporations, all the deregulation by Trump has helped make corporations more profitable.

not saying the above is good for America.

 

bernie and Pete scare me on what they would do the economy and stock market, I would never vote for either, hoping Bloomberg is the guy.  I am an older democratic and I do vote with my pocketbook, mainly because I grew dirt poor and have carved out a good life with a lot of hard work and no handouts.  

Edited by Gopher State
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2 hours ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Sadly, we'll never know.

Just like how many licks to the middle of a Tootsie pop. 

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It would be strong, but likely a bit less than it is currently given I don’t think she would have poured gas on the fire with pressuring more rate cuts and doing the Jobs Act tax cut.  What that really means is we will have a harder fall down now than we would have under Hillary.  I think it would have been more stable where this is more volatile, which I personally think is worse.

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3 hours ago, bagger said:

It would be strong, but likely a bit less than it is currently given I don’t think she would have poured gas on the fire with pressuring more rate cuts and doing the Jobs Act tax cut.  What that really means is we will have a harder fall down now than we would have under Hillary.  I think it would have been more stable where this is more volatile, which I personally think is worse.

People are acting like the stock market performance under Trump has been some sort of behemoth.  Why is this? Not even close to the most recent 4 terms under a Democrat. 

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4 hours ago, Gopher State said:

I voted for Hillary.  I think the market would be significantly lower under her.  The tax cuts did spur stock buybacks by corporations, all the deregulation by Trump has helped make corporations more profitable.

not saying the above is good for America.

 

bernie and Pete scare me on what they would do the economy and stock market, I would never vote for either, hoping Bloomberg is the guy.  I am an older democratic and I do vote with my pocketbook, mainly because I grew dirt poor and have carved out a good life with a lot of hard work and no handouts.  

Why would you be scared about Pete?

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7 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I voted 30,000-39,999 but that's only because the buckets kind of suck.  The Dow is currently a little over 29,000.  I think it would be in about the same place regardless of who was president, but maybe a little ahead because no other president would have started a trade war with China.  So I rounded up to 30K which knocked my vote into the next higher bracket.

This is where I’m at. I’d expect everything to be basically the same except for the trade war. 

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7 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

what are the factors driving the recent rise of the stock market?

is it much different from historical averages?

The truth is without all the stock buybacks from corporate boardrooms this market wouldn’t be up at all under any President. The number one buyer of U.S. stocks are the companies themselves.

https://thesoundingline.com/dividends-and-buybacks-now-larger-than-total-reported-earnings-for-the-entire-sp-500/

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1 hour ago, Navin Johnson said:

I'd say strong...to quite strong.

Thanks Greg

 

 

 

 

 

Was going go with either other name but didn't feel like getting banned.

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9 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I voted 30,000-39,999 but that's only because the buckets kind of suck.  The Dow is currently a little over 29,000.  I think it would be in about the same place regardless of who was president, but maybe a little ahead because no other president would have started a trade war with China.  So I rounded up to 30K which knocked my vote into the next higher bracket.

But she wouldn’t have signed that tax cut that inflated stock value.  My best guess is 27,500-29,000

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1 hour ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Why would you be scared about Pete?

The right is convinced he’s a socialist, the left thinks he’s a corporate shill and closet Republican.  It’s frankly amazing he’s doing as well as he is in this election. 

Edited by Henry Ford

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26 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

But she wouldn’t have signed that tax cut that inflated stock value.  My best guess is 27,500-29,000

That was my vote as well.

People voting under 10K? C’mon. At least glance at the historical data. 

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2 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

That was my vote as well.

People voting under 10K? C’mon. At least glance at the historical data. 

To be fair, these are most likely the guys saying in 22-24 "hey, it was bound to go down at some point" if Trump's in office and "hey, told you the socialist would destroy the market" if any Democrat is in office.  Have to consider the sources here.

ETA:  Just realized it was public :lmao:  Pretty good!

Edited by The Commish

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2 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

That was my vote as well.

People voting under 10K? C’mon. At least glance at the historical data. 

I voted < 10k because my only news source is FOX.

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Certainly lower because McConnell and Republicans would do anything in their power to stymie and sabotage a Democratic President. Ask me how I know this....

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Another thread for the Trump haters to pretend like he’s had no positive impact......neat?:popcorn:

Thankfully we will never know what Ol Hill would have put us through. 

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17 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

Another thread for the Trump haters to pretend like he’s had no positive impact......neat?:popcorn:

Thankfully we will never know what Ol Hill would have put us through. 

To be fair....most here aren't starting with the assumption that it would be less than 10,000 with her at the helm either.  When the starting points are that far apart, I think it's easy to see why other opinions seem so far off.  Neat indeed.

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1 minute ago, The Commish said:

To be fair....most here aren't starting with the assumption that it would be less than 10,000 with her at the helm either.  When the starting points are that far apart, I think it's easy to see why other opinions seem so far off.  Neat indeed.

Just loving the scientific analysis of those that whine in here daily about Trump so surprisingly think nothing would be different/would be better with ol Hilly....really groundbreaking stuff in here guys who could have predicted it!:lmao:

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12 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

 

People voting under 10K? C’mon. At least glance at the historical data. 

I assume the > 40,000 and the < 10,000 votes are just posters joking around.  If they truly believe it, I hope they will state why.

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3 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

Just loving the scientific analysis of those that whine in here daily about Trump so surprisingly think nothing would be different/would be better with ol Hilly....really groundbreaking stuff in here guys who could have predicted it!:lmao:

Why do you think it would be under 10,000?

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5 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

Why do you think it would be under 10,000?

Speaks to the quality of a poll like this in the chamber. 

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Just now, GoBirds said:

Speaks to the quality of a poll like this in the chamber. 

I see, so it’s like a form of protest.  If you were to answer the question seriously, what would you guess?

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12 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

I see, so it’s like a form of protest.  If you were to answer the question seriously, what would you guess?

What are you assuming as far as FED behavior with rates? Same?

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1 minute ago, GoBirds said:

What are you assuming as far as FED behavior with rates? Same?

Everything after the election is for you to predict.  

 

 

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