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Best/Worst RB Landing Spots (1 Viewer)

Iceman03

Footballguy
Every year it feels like this subject isn’t broached until disaster happens in the draft. Last year it was Darrell Henderson being in a horrible spot, then being in a great spot.... we as a community don’t operate with much foresight. Given that the RB landscape is messy (always) what teams would encourage you to take a rookie RB and which spots would be a disaster?

Arizona - Drake (?), DJ (?), Edwards

Atlanta - Freeman (?)

Baltimore - Ingram, Hill

Buffalo - Singletary

Carolina - CMC

Chicago - Montgomery

Cincy - Mixon, Bernard

Cleveland - Chubb

Dallas - Zeke, Pollard

Denver - Lindsey, Freeman

Detroit - Kerryon

Green Bay - Jones, Williams

Houston - Hyde (?), Duke Johnson

Indy - Mack, Hines

Jacksonville - Fournette

KC - D. Williams

LA Chargers - Ekeler, JJackson

LA Rams - Gurley (?), Henderson

Miami - Laird, Ballage

Minnesota - Cook, Mattison

NO - Kamara, Murray

NE - White, Michel, Burkhead

NYG - Barkley

NYJ - Bell (?)

Oakland - Jacobs, Richard

Philly - Sanders, Scott

Pittsburgh - Conner, Snell, Samuels

San Fran - Mostert, Breida, Coleman

Seattle - Carson, Penny

Tampa Bay - Ronald Jones

Tennessee - Henry(?)

Washington - AD, Guice

 
Gotta be loving Miami and Tampa and Atlanta right off the top of my head. Houston, too, considering how they used Duke and what kind of year Hyde had behind what seemed to be a revamped line and fun n' gun offense. KC and JAG Williams will likely get some competition in camp. Detroit. Johnson's done nothing. WAS and NYJ and PIT maybe. We'll find out more about what those teams think of what they have. 

Hating any of the three-down young guys like DAL, NYG, OAK, MN, JAX, etc.

 
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Every year it feels like this subject isn’t broached until disaster happens in the draft. Last year it was Darrell Henderson being in a horrible spot, then being in a great spot.... we as a community don’t operate with much foresight. Given that the RB landscape is messy (always) what teams would encourage you to take a rookie RB and which spots would be a disaster?

Arizona - Drake (?), DJ (?), Edwards - I think they keep Drake and he is the guy to own, but if they do draft a good RB, then it's definitely a good spot.

Atlanta - Freeman (?) - I've been saying this is a good destination even before rumors about Freeman.

Baltimore - Ingram, Hill - muddy and probably to avoid in the short term if they draft a back, but probably a great long term spot. I just think Ingram will continue to get enough of a share to make it muddy.

Buffalo - Singletary

Carolina - CMC

Chicago - Montgomery - they're not smart enough to draft another RB (and to get Cam), but if they do.....

Cincy - Mixon, Bernard

Cleveland - Chubb

Dallas - Zeke, Pollard

Denver - Lindsey, Freeman - they need other pieces first, but this wouldn't surprise me too much

Detroit - Kerryon - I'd doubt it but some people have this as a darkhorse spot

Green Bay - Jones, Williams

Houston - Hyde (?), Duke Johnson - after OBrien spent what he spent it's hard to make sense here, but clearly a fantasy worthy job here

Indy - Mack, Hines

Jacksonville - Fournette

KC - D. Williams - hands down 1.01 if a top RB goes here - anyone want to say it wouldn't be 1.01 if a top WR goes there?

LA Chargers - Ekeler, JJackson

LA Rams - Gurley (?), Henderson

Miami - Laird, Ballage - there is room for *two* new fantasy relevant RBs to be drafted here. Personally I'll take the under but still.

Minnesota - Cook, Mattison

NO - Kamara, Murray

NE - White, Michel, Burkhead - until shown otherwise there is always a job opening here

NYG - Barkley

NYJ - Bell (?) - at some point this must happen

Oakland - Jacobs, Richard

Philly - Sanders, Scott

Pittsburgh - Conner, Snell, Samuels - maybe

San Fran - Mostert, Breida, Coleman - maybe

Seattle - Carson, Penny - maybe

Tampa Bay - Ronald Jones - ding, ding, ding!!! we have a winner!!!

Tennessee - Henry(?) 

Washington - AD, Guice - see Chicago Bears
As for Henry in Tenn, just no. So I had said it earlier in a different thread, but I believe there are many more job opportunities for RBs than I thought there were going to be. It's a fantasy lesson that RBs churn so fast, so what you took for granted on a depth chart one day.....

That said, much of what I would refer to as a job opportunity as a RB may come as a backup that is allowed to compete. With the depth in this class, I think teams will see quality RBs on their draft board in the 3rd, 4th and 5th round that they will feel compelled to take, even if they weren't *planning* on taking an earlier back. I think it's possible we see guys like that win jobs in training camp or early in the season. 

 
These are teams I could see in the market, depending on their situation at the time of the draft (Jets, Titans, Cardinals)

My top landing spots from this list

ATL, IND, HOU, TB, MIA
Indy has shown its commited to mack imo

 
I worry about Akers slipping and being thought of as a COP. Would hate to see him buried. 

I think Buffalo is a nice spot for someone. They’re a run first team and while the scouting and fantasy community seem to love Singletary I was not a fan. He’s diminutive and had mediocre measurables despite his success last year. Same can be said for how I feel about David Montgomery and Chicago except he has ideal size. I’ve compared Montgomery to Benjarvis Green Ellis with hands which has drawn hatred around these parts.

Miami and Atlanta seem obvious but Dirk Koetter is #### for RB’s and Miami’s OLine may still be terrible. I still wouldn’t mind seeing Taylor or Dobbins land there.

 
If I were estimating/projecting right now, I'd say:

Arizona=1. Drake 2. Edmonds, I'm not a huge Drake fan but I think he'll likely be brought back unless he wants like 8+ a year.

Atlanta=1.? 2. Smith, I think Atlanta likes Ito Smith as a backup, and some combo of Hill/Ollison fill out a position, but #1 is up for grabs. I think this is a very interesting spot for 1 of their 2 2nd round picks. Maybe local star D'Andre Swift?

Baltimore=1. Ingram, 2. Hill 3. Edwards, they are set

Buffalo=1. Singletary 2. ?, I think they replace Gore with a different, more versatile veteran. Devonta Freeman makes sense to me.

Carolina=1 CMC 2.?, I imagine the Panthers add a day 3 pick to Bonnafon, Scarlett, and co. Ke'Shawn Vaughn feels like a nice pick for them.

Chicago=1. Montgomery 2. Cohen, I think they just roll with that, and hope for a breakout 2nd year from Montgomery. 

Cincinnati=1. Mixon 2. ?, I really think Bernard gets cut, and he should, he's no longer an effective RB, and is highly paid. I think a they add a day 3 pick to the Williams/Anderson picks from a year ago. Cam Akers at the top of round 4 gives them a high upside alternative should Mixon want the big bucks he's rumored to want, and be a solid #2 in the meantime.

Cleveland=1. Chubb 2. Hunt, I think Hunt gets tendered at a 2nd round level(at least) and just don't see anyone ponying up a 2(or more) for a RB who was suspended for half a year.

Dallas=1. Zeke 2. Pollard, Pollard looked more than good enough to not face any competition for the #2 job.

Denver=1.Lindsay 2. Freeman, this combo is likely going to play out their respective rookie deals together. Cheap, solid, and complimentary.

Detroit=1. Kerryon 2.?, I think they can't feel good about Johnson's durability, and nobody really impressed in his absence. A veteran like Lamar Miller would give them a nice alternative, who could at least be a solid fill-in should Johnson's injury woes continue.

Green Bay=1. Jones 2. Williams, like Denver, they are riding out their rookie deals together.

Houston=1.? 2. Duke, I think at this point we have to accept Johnson will never be more than a 3rd down guy. Hyde only gets what is blocked. I think Houston takes a RB in either round 2 or round 4. I think they'll take JK Dobbins if he's still there at 57.

Indy=1. Mack 2. Hines, they seem to like Mack a lot more than I do. Sounds like he may get an extension soon.

Jacksonville=1. Fournette 2. Armstead, too many other holes to address RB. Hopefully they don't extend Fournette.

Kansas City=1.?, 2. Williams, Williams is a solid RB, but he's more of a RBBC guy than a true starter. Thompson didn't show a ton, and I think they wanted more from the position, Williams playoff run notwithstanding. I doubt they draft a guy on day 1, but day 2 is a possibility. Maybe Zack Moss?

Las Vegas=1. Jacobs 2.?, Richard re-signed, but I don't think he's getting the #2 job handed to him. I like Matt Breida here, SF soured on him as he dropped to 4th by the Super Bowl, but he's been a big play magnet, and offers much more than Richard as a runner.

LA Chargers=1. Ekeler 2. Jackson, I think they have no reason not to just roll with these 2. Both have been very good in smaller roles.

LA Rams=1. Gurley 2. Henderson, not buying Gurley as a cut at all. Maybe if Henderson had done anything as a rookie, but he didn't even beat out Brown yet.

Miami=1.? 2.?, I'm not confident their top-2 RB's are currently on the team. With the league's most cap space, and likely breaking in a young QB, I think Melvin Gordon makes a lot of sense for them. In addition I think Clyde Edwards-Helaire makes sense as the Ekeler to Gordon's, well, Gordon.

Minnesota=1. Cook 2. Mattison, pretty set there.

New England=1. White 2. Michel, don't see them adding a RB, more likely to just involve Harris in Burkhead's old role, if they don't just bring Burkhead back.

New Orleans=1.Kamara 2.Murray, pretty set there. Curious if they extend Kamara coming off a down year.

NY Giants=1. Barkley 2. ?, I'd like to think they wouldn't just roll with Gallman as the #2. Jordan Howard is a nice, likely cheap option, who can keep the chains moving, and perhaps also allow Barkley to split outside more often.

NY Jets=1. Bell 2. ?, I'd be shocked if Bell was gone, unless they Osweiler'd a deal to take his contract. Montgomery/Powell could be upgraded upon in the meantime. I think Jerick McKinnon would be a cheap worthwhile flier.

Philadelphia=1. Sanders 2. Scott, I think Scott showed enough to go into the year as the unquestioned #2.

Pittsburgh=1. Conner 2. Samuels, the Steelers have limited cap space, and draft capital. RB just needs better health, and they do have Snell as a #3.

San Fran=1. ? 2. Mostert, I think another RB is added, its just Shanahan's style. I think McKinnon is cut, and Breida is let go as a RFA. With no 2nd or 3rd round picks, I highly doubt the 49ers stay at 31, in the ensuing trade down(s) a guy like Jonathan Taylor may very well appeal to them.

Seattle=1. Carson 2. Penny, not seeing them investing any more at the position. Could see Homer being the #2 as Penny works back.

Tampa Bay=1. Jones 2.?, I still think Jones has a shot here. He'll get competition for sure, but I think it'll be someone to fill the pass catching role, and maybe 50% of Barber's carries. David Johnson seems like the natural fit.

Tennessee=1.Henry 2.?, Henry will either get a contract or tagged. Dion Lewis is likely where some of that money comes from. I think getting Henry more involved on passing downs will be a priority, so i don't think they automatically look for a 3rd down type. I think Carlos Hyde fits here, as he's around 30, and can "in theory" do some of the same things Henry does.

Washington=1. Guice 2.Love, I think Peterson is a nice veteran insurance policy, but ideally he's on the bench, and the young guys step up.

 
I think Buffalo is a nice spot for someone. They’re a run first team and while the scouting and fantasy community seem to love Singletary I was not a fan. He’s diminutive and had mediocre measurables despite his success last year.
This statement reeks of someone who didn’t actually watch Singletary play last year. He regularly looked like their offense’s best weapon. He is elusive and has incredible balance through contact, combined it makes him very hard to bring down. Yes he is small but his elusiveness keeps him from taking many big hits. As for his measurables, anyone who looked at his college play suspected that he just had a bad combine because it did not match his tape. After a year of NFL tape, I think we can pretty much throw his combine numbers out as a bad day in the office. Buffalo has their guy

 
This statement reeks of someone who didn’t actually watch Singletary play last year. He regularly looked like their offense’s best weapon. He is elusive and has incredible balance through contact, combined it makes him very hard to bring down. Yes he is small but his elusiveness keeps him from taking many big hits. As for his measurables, anyone who looked at his college play suspected that he just had a bad combine because it did not match his tape. After a year of NFL tape, I think we can pretty much throw his combine numbers out as a bad day in the office. Buffalo has their guy
Ya... I’m not going to do that for a guy who only posted 700 yds and split time with Frank Gore. I don’t care what anyone’s eyes saw. He had a nice season, better than I expected. Any of the big four go to Buffalo and he’s toast. 

 
Not to hijack this thread and make it about Singletary but since 2000 only six backs under 5’8 205 lbs have posted >900 yds rushing and 5TD’s: Ray Rice 4x, Michael Bennett, Justin Forsett, Warrick Dunn 3x, Dominic Rhodes, Philip Lindsey 2x.

People are really about this guy right now but it’s not going to take a lot to take a big blow out of his fantasy value. I don’t have Rhodes workout numbers but only Forsett compares athletically to what Singletary is. 

 
Ya... I’m not going to do that for a guy who only posted 700 yds and split time with Frank Gore. I don’t care what anyone’s eyes saw. He had a nice season, better than I expected. Any of the big four go to Buffalo and he’s toast. 
He had 969 total yards despite splitting time with ageless F Gore and missing 4 games.  Now, if someone is worried about durability.....ok.  

Nobody is saying he suddenly becomes a top-5 RB.

 
Ya... I’m not going to do that for a guy who only posted 700 yds and split time with Frank Gore. I don’t care what anyone’s eyes saw. He had a nice season, better than I expected. Any of the big four go to Buffalo and he’s toast. 
A lot of fact slinging for someone who doesn’t seem to have watched him play. Everybody who was in on him knew that Gore was going to take a big chunk initially. I’m sure there were concerns about his size but once it became clear that the Bills had a shot at the playoffs, they gave Devin the reins as soon as his hammy cleared up. 3rd round capital is nothing to sneeze at.
 

In 12 games, he started 8 of them. In those 8 games he had 631 yards rushing and 156 yards receiving, that’s good for a pace of 1200 rushing and 1500 yfs. For reference, Miles Sanders (whom most have rated as a top 15 dynasty RB) was only on pace for around 950 yards rushing in games he started. Singletary only had 2 TDs in those 8 games so if you want to say Allen is going to vulture him, I wouldn’t disagree with you. They may draft someone because they are looking to run a committee but a cursory glance at the tape will tell anyone that it will probably be a day 3 guy and Singletary will be the 1.

If you don’t want to put in the time to do the research beyond stats that are devoid of context, you do you. But let’s call it what it is, lazy analysis trying to disguise itself as an educated opinion

 
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A lot of fact slinging for someone who doesn’t seem to have watched him play. Everybody who was in on him knew that Gore was going to take a big chunk initially. I’m sure there were concerns about his size but once it became clear that the Bills had a shot at the playoffs, they gave Devin the reins as soon as his hammy cleared up. 3rd round capital is nothing to sneeze at.
 

In 12 games, he started 8 of them. In those 8 games he had 631 yards rushing and 156 yards receiving, that’s good for a pace of 1200 rushing and 1500 yfs. For reference, Miles Sanders (whom most have rated as a top 15 dynasty RB) was only on pace for around 950 yards rushing in games he started. Singletary only had 2 TDs in those 8 games so if you want to say Allen is going to vulture him, I wouldn’t disagree with you. They may draft someone because they are looking to run a committee but a cursory glance at the tape will tell anyone that it will probably be a day 3 guy and Singletary will be the 1.

If you don’t want to put in the time to do the research beyond stats that are devoid of context, you do you. But let’s call it what it is, lazy analysis trying to disguise itself as an educated opinion
Lol... lazy is watching highlights, considering yourself an expert and ####ting on every fact that disputes you. Also lazily projecting out full seasons which has been shown to be a disaster. Good luck, I’m muting you. I’m not going to engage with people who hurl insults at me when I put in quite a bit of time into real info. Not acting like I’m the Gene Siskel of football film. Enjoy your 200lb running back who already couldn’t make it through more than 12 games. I’m sure he won’t end up in a split and then made irrelevant because he’s a below mediocre athlete who succeed because his QB is a constant running threat.

 
Comparing Sanders to Singletary is beyond hysterical overreaction to Singletary’s season. Sanders is one of five players to rush for 800 yds and receive over 500 yds their first year... the other four are Marshall Faulk, Edge, Saquon and Billy Sims.

 
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Lol... lazy is watching highlights, considering yourself an expert and ####ting on every fact that disputes you. Also lazily projecting out full seasons which has been shown to be a disaster. Good luck, I’m muting you. I’m not going to engage with people who hurl insults at me when I put in quite a bit of time into real info. Not acting like I’m the Gene Siskel of football film. Enjoy your 200lb running back who already couldn’t make it through more than 12 games. I’m sure he won’t end up in a split and then made irrelevant because he’s a below mediocre athlete who succeed because his QB is a constant running threat.
There you go again,...., being uncool to people at FBGs.

 
Lol... lazy is watching highlights, considering yourself an expert and ####ting on every fact that disputes you. Also lazily projecting out full seasons which has been shown to be a disaster. Good luck, I’m muting you. I’m not going to engage with people who hurl insults at me when I put in quite a bit of time into real info. Not acting like I’m the Gene Siskel of football film. Enjoy your 200lb running back who already couldn’t make it through more than 12 games. I’m sure he won’t end up in a split and then made irrelevant because he’s a below mediocre athlete who succeed because his QB is a constant running threat.
You have said nothing about Singletary other than his height, weight, and raw rushing numbers for the year. You’ve admittedly not watched him play. Your opinion is armchair analysis dressed up as an educated take.  Please point me to the facts that would indicate Singletary won’t continue to succeed in the league. He has roughly the same weight and height as Aaron Jones and Lesean McCoy and is bigger than Phillip Lindsey and Austin Ekeler. All 4 have found multiple years of success in the league.

Clearly you aren’t going to be swayed to change your opinion or even find the facts to back it up. That’s fine but there are others who read these threads for discussion and insight. I want to point out for those people that your opinion is grounded in only in naked statistics and encourage them to dive deeper to form their own opinion.

I’m sure there are people out there who don’t like him as a player and have the research to support it. Differing opinions make for great discussion and I would welcome that. For the main topic though, I do not believe that Buffalo is a good landing spot for an RB this year as Singletary has shown the skill necessary to get the job done. If you look at his stats, you will see a guy who missed 4 game with a hammy, started in the second half of the season, and was very efficient with those starts. He will likely get vultures by Allen on TDs so while it will look like he was lacking in the redzone, he also wasn’t given a lot of opportunity. If one of the top 4 or 5 RBs goes to Buffalo, that would probably spell trouble for both players as they would eat into each other. If someone gets drafted round 4 or later (which I kind of expect), I would be extremely skeptical about the hype around them a la Dexter Williams last year. Singletary will probably split work with someone, he profiles as a 15-20 carry RB with passing down ability, but I wouldn’t be excited for anybody sharing the backfield in Buffalo (other than Allen of course)

 
gabes1919 said:
I do not believe that Buffalo is a good landing spot for an RB this year as Singletary has shown the skill necessary to get the job done. 
I like Singletary, but the Buffalo staff has shown an affinity for RBBCs so there is some risk that Buffalo drafts a RB that ends up looking better than him.

 
I like Singletary, but the Buffalo staff has shown an affinity for RBBCs so there is some risk that Buffalo drafts a RB that ends up looking better than him.
Yeah, I agree with most of the comments on either side.  Singletary is decent/good, he will get his share of an RBBC.  Best case scenario is sharing with Gore again. 

Buffalo also isn't a great landing spot for an RB because it's unlikely they draft somebody who keeps Singletary off the field as well. 

 
As a Houston fan, we need a go-to-guy but O'Brien will maddeningly run everyone so Houston is definitely not ideal until O'Brien is gone. We need it, but even if we get a solid rookie, he'll not get quality playing time to match his skills. Guaranteed.

 
Your eyes can tell you a lot, but stats and trends tell you a lot as well.

I personally find fantasy hard enough to win as it is, I don't want to make it worse on myself by betting on a player bucking a trend. I know Iceman shares this sentiment and I appreciate a lot of his correlative analyses

If I were betting, I'd take the under for 200 carries for Singletary this year, reserving the right to adjust that bet based on FA and the draft. If they have Singletary and Yeldon… then I can see Singletary getting the over. If they bring Gore back I'd expect Singletary to get about 40%

Regardless, Buffalo isn't a great landing spot for a rookie...
Agree on all accounts.  I'll be the first to admit I am a better stat cruncher than a scout.  At 5'7", Devin is starting as a statistical improbability.  62 different RB's have reached RB1 status since 2010, and only 3 are as short:

Tarik Cohen - 42% of his touches were via the pass, Devin doesn't compare to Cohen
Darren Sproles - 50% of his touches were via the pass, Devin doesn't compare to Sproles
Maurice Jones-Drew - 343 carries in 2011, no way in Hades will Devin ever even come close to this

Size-wise, he is closer to MJD than Cohen/Sproles.  While he can match MJD's receiving production, can he compare as a workhorse rusher?  Is he thick enough to handle the load?  I say yes, but will BUF? 

 
I agree with Cruela Devil's post above (I know of no other way to describe anyone who wears mittens made out of kittens!)

Regardless of who they draft or bring in (even if it is Gore), it's unlikely they keep Singletary off the field to make it a good landing spot, especially if it's a rookie. To me this scenario looks like a RBBC going forward no matter how we look at it. Gabes makes good points (albiet he could deliver the message a bit less aggressively) that we can't just look at raw stats. I admittedly watched maybe 3 quarters of Buffalo Bill football this last year... (I just don't find them entertaining to watch). Singletary looked quicker than I expected him to look, but he didn't look like a 20 carry per game guy to me. Iceman makes legitimate points as well, as size matters (insert Michael Scott joke here), especially when talking about if a guy can be a workhorse. We have to look at trends too, because you are really pigeon-holing yourself if you are counting on a player to be an exception/buck the trend.

Where Gabes falls short is his prediction, is that, based on his eyes, Singletree can be a 15-20 carry per game guy. The numbers just don't add up.

Buffalo averaged 29 rushes per game last year, with Allen averaging 6.8 per game. So that means that Singletary would have to get 91% of the carries for Buffalo to get 20 rushes per game. I just don't see that happening.

20 rushes per game would put him over what Derrick Henry got last year by 17, leading the league. Even 15 rushes per game would put him on par with David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs. I don't see Singletary being in the top 50% of the league in total rushes... and 15 per game would put him there.

We can predict that whomever the RB2 is in Buffalo will get half the carries Gore got last year, but that still puts Singletary in the 200-220 range. 200 might be reasonable. But this is why I see his upside capped, and why he is a decent sell prior to the draft for me... I just don't see the upward trajectory that many of his owners do. Mathematically it's just not there unless he bucks the trend and becomes a small sized workhorse back.

Buffalo's rushes:

Frank Gore: 35.7%
Devin Singletary: 32.5%
Josh Allen: 23.4%
Other: 8.4%

Assuming Allen and Other remain unchanged, this leaves a maximum of 317 carries open, or 69.2% of Buffalo's carries. Which for Singletary to get 100% of those means he is embarking on Zeke and Henry territory for usage. That's happening in bizarro world maybe.

So let's say he gets a generous 75% of those 317? That would leave him with 51% of the total carries, 238 total. That might be somewhat reasonable, but it bucks the trend that's been in Buffalo for years; Buffalo has only had a single RB with >50% of the carries twice in the last 10 years: 2010 with Fred Jackson getting 222 carries of 401 total, and in 2017 when McCoy got 287 to 487 total). Otherwise it's been in the 34-40% range (40% of the carries would be 186 for Singletary).

Your eyes can tell you a lot, but stats and trends tell you a lot as well.

I personally find fantasy hard enough to win as it is, I don't want to make it worse on myself by betting on a player bucking a trend. I know Iceman shares this sentiment and I appreciate a lot of his correlative analyses

If I were betting, I'd take the under for 200 carries for Singletary this year, reserving the right to adjust that bet based on FA and the draft. If they have Singletary and Yeldon… then I can see Singletary getting the over. If they bring Gore back I'd expect Singletary to get about 40%

Regardless, Buffalo isn't a great landing spot for a rookie...
I've already derailed this thread enough with Singletary talk so I'll just try to keep brief a couple of things I'd like to add. I do agree with you that chasing exceptions is a fool's errand and a bad game to play. Singletary cost me 2nds last year so my excitement over him needed to be measured against the low risk cost. However after his year of play, I don't think we are chasing an exception but seeing one. Throwing out week 17 where Buffalo was resting, Singletary averaged 16 carries and 2 catches per game from week 9 onward, he only dropped below 15 carries twice (14 in one and 8 in one that he wasn't the starter). You can increase that to three games if you include the playoffs where he only had 13 carries but 6 catches. Gore averaged 8 carries per game in that span, Allen averaged 7 carries. It is not as large of a sample size as I would like but you can make some judgments based on half a season's usage, especially when a team made a successful playoff push during that time.

They were giving Singletary a 15-20 carry in the second half. It could've been because Gore was extremely ineffective but it generally worked for them. Things could change but I don't think the Bills will pick an RB in the first 2 days and I don't think they will bring in meaningful competition in free agency. They likely will bring in a compliment, maybe even a redzone vulture if they think that Singletary's lack of scoring was more about him and less about Allen taking those TDs. Draft capital and performance last year would indicate that, small or not, they will give him the chance to be the lead back again

 
I've already derailed this thread enough with Singletary talk so I'll just try to keep brief a couple of things I'd like to add. I do agree with you that chasing exceptions is a fool's errand and a bad game to play. Singletary cost me 2nds last year so my excitement over him needed to be measured against the low risk cost. However after his year of play, I don't think we are chasing an exception but seeing one. Throwing out week 17 where Buffalo was resting, Singletary averaged 16 carries and 2 catches per game from week 9 onward, he only dropped below 15 carries twice (14 in one and 8 in one that he wasn't the starter). You can increase that to three games if you include the playoffs where he only had 13 carries but 6 catches. Gore averaged 8 carries per game in that span, Allen averaged 7 carries. It is not as large of a sample size as I would like but you can make some judgments based on half a season's usage, especially when a team made a successful playoff push during that time.

They were giving Singletary a 15-20 carry in the second half. It could've been because Gore was extremely ineffective but it generally worked for them. Things could change but I don't think the Bills will pick an RB in the first 2 days and I don't think they will bring in meaningful competition in free agency. They likely will bring in a compliment, maybe even a redzone vulture if they think that Singletary's lack of scoring was more about him and less about Allen taking those TDs. Draft capital and performance last year would indicate that, small or not, they will give him the chance to be the lead back again
Devin was a scoring machine in college, and a workhorse...

Freshman - 15 touches per game, 1 TD per game
Sophomore - 23 touches per game, 2.4 TD's per game
Junior - 22 touches per game, 1.8 TD's per game

Those numbers are impressive.  67 TD's in 38 games (66 of them rushing).  92% of his yardage came from rushing.  Make no mistake - Devin has the size to be a feature RB.  I see no scenario where BUF drafts an early RB.  I think BUF is committed to Devin in 2020.  It's the split with whoever is the RB2 that I can't decide yet. 

 
Hyde is a FA and may not cost much to resign but Houston needs their cap dollars for looming Tunesil and Watson extensions plus some other FA’s like Bradley Roby and DJ Reader. They have big holes in the defense and still need a dependable #2 WR and are short on picks. Gonna be hard to predict what they do with BOB totally running the show.

 
Devin was a scoring machine in college, and a workhorse...

Freshman - 15 touches per game, 1 TD per game
Sophomore - 23 touches per game, 2.4 TD's per game
Junior - 22 touches per game, 1.8 TD's per game

Those numbers are impressive.  67 TD's in 38 games (66 of them rushing).  92% of his yardage came from rushing.  Make no mistake - Devin has the size to be a feature RB.  I see no scenario where BUF drafts an early RB.  I think BUF is committed to Devin in 2020.  It's the split with whoever is the RB2 that I can't decide yet. 
Why? 
 

Let me clarify... you’ve pointed to Sproles, MJD and Cohen as comps... which one of those players compares athletically to him? How did his rookie year yards per catch comp to them?

 
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Why? 
 

Let me clarify... you’ve pointed to Sproles, MJD and Cohen as comps... which one of those players compares athletically to him? How did his rookie year yards per catch comp to them?
He has a BMI of 31.8, that puts him above Gurley, CMC, Zeke and Barkley. He is thick enough for NFL contact but is too small to make his paper as any type of power back. His game will have to continue to be finesse. Due to his size and Allen’s presence, he will probably never be the TD monster he was in college. Allen has 5 rushing TDs in the second half of the season compared to Singletary’s 1. I’d expect some positive regression since Singletary got taken down within the 5 a few times but not much unless they decide to protect Allen from running (probably not at this point in his career)

 
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Why? 

Let me clarify... you’ve pointed to Sproles, MJD and Cohen as comps... which one of those players compares athletically to him? How did his rookie year yards per catch comp to them?
If you read a few posts above, I said he doesn't compare to Sproles or Cohen, as they were primarily pass catchers.  They were simply 2 short guys who managed to have a RB1 season in their careers.  He is closer to MJD in terms of body size.

Singletary - 151 rush/29 catch = 84% rush rate
MJD's career - 1847 rush/346 catch = 84% rush rate
Sproles career - 732 rush/553 catch = 57% rush rate
Cohen's career - 250 rush/203 catch = 55% rush rate

At 5'7" and 203 pounds, the question was, is he thick enough to be a workhorse?  The answer is yes.  As @gabes1919 said above, his BMI is higher than the average workhorse.  Of the 10 leaders in rushing attempts, only Emmitt Smith and Jerome Bettis have higher BMI's.  He is the same weight as Barry Sanders, but an inch shorter.

@Dr. Dan pointed out, for some reason, the NFL seems to be going away from shorter workhorses, but it doesn't mean Devin can't handle the load.

 
Good point... looking at history, Houston is about as great as Buffalo in their usage. I am shocked at how much Alfred Blue was used...

The last time Houston had a workhorse RB they committed to pre-dates BOB
Lamar Miller averaged 18.4 touches per game under O'Brien which equals out to 295 over a 16 game season.  In 2016 he had 299 touches in 14 games which is a pace of 342 for the season.

That's not Zeke or CMC levels of workhorsedness but in the modern era that is pretty darn close to a workhorse RB and it's not like Miller has been some stud that you just can't keep off the field.

 
Most people are replying with great landing spots, so I will list a few that suck...

DAL - I don't recall Zeke missing a game due to injury (correct me if I'm wrong).  Pollard did great as his backup.  No opportunity for meaningful touches
CAR - The #2 behind CMC can't even be called a CoP guy.  He just comes in to give CMC a quick breather.
CLE - If Hunt leaves, it gets better, but no one is unseating Chubb.
NYG - Saquon missed 3 games, and still finished RB10.  He's a quick healer and will have a great 2020.

MIA - I didn't want to list just teams with great RB's already, so I figured I would throw MIA on the list.  7 different RB's had carries in 2019, and none of them averaged 4 YPC.  Their OL was bottom of the barrel in both run & pass blocking.  The opportunity is there for the taking, but it's hard to succeed when you have no line.  Just ask Josh Rosen, who went from bad to worst.  Sure, you're gonna get touches and may even be fantasy relevant, but those are gonna be some tough yards.

 
Situations can change on a dime. Those top 4 probably arent taking anyone at least until round 4... but let's talk Miami...

It's a bad situation today, but things can change so fast. Baltimore was the worst landing spot for a WR last year, now its thought of as one of the best in the landing soots for 2020 wrs thread. AJB's situation in TEN improved from terrible to good. I see a similar situation for a RB in Miami. 

Some OL upgrades and QB... teams no longer pinning their ears back because they know theres a great chance Fitzpatrick throws an INT anyways, teams not respecting the run at all... things change year to year. I dont expect Miami to be a playoff team overnight, but you can be a RB on a bad team and still show some fantasy relevance. See Kenyan Drake/Chase Edmunds, Ekler, Mixon, Barkley... in fact I think all of those guys averaged rb1 numbers minus the AZ crew...

Mixon had a worse situation than Miami and was in a timeshare of sorts... he still finished pretty strong. 

I'm not passing on a Miami back because he is drafted by Miami. It wont be a great spot but I dont see it as a bad one either
I still think BAL is horrible for WR's.  BAL was last in the NFL in WR targets.  In fact, 25% of the NFL had double the WR targets.  LJax led the league in TD passes, and that's not gonna happen again, probably not ever.  Only 12 WR's had more TD's than Marquise, yet he finished WR46.  BAL WR's are gonna be TD dependent as long as Lamar is the QB.

As for MIA, it's a great spot for a rookie, but only in terms of fantasy.  No real competition for touches currently rostered.  And yes, I will gladly roster any RB that's getting alot of touches.  6 of the top 10 RB's last year didn't even make the playoffs.

 
I still think BAL is horrible for WR's.  BAL was last in the NFL in WR targets.  In fact, 25% of the NFL had double the WR targets.  LJax led the league in TD passes, and that's not gonna happen again, probably not ever.  Only 12 WR's had more TD's than Marquise, yet he finished WR46.  BAL WR's are gonna be TD dependent as long as Lamar is the QB.
Yeah all good points. If they draft a stud that guy may be the new focus of their passing game but I should head to the WR thread.

 
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Situations can change on a dime. Those top 4 probably arent taking anyone at least until round 4... but let's talk Miami...

It's a bad situation today, but things can change so fast. Baltimore was the worst landing spot for a WR last year, now its thought of as one of the best in the landing soots for 2020 wrs thread. AJB's situation in TEN improved from terrible to good. I see a similar situation for a RB in Miami. 

Some OL upgrades and QB... teams no longer pinning their ears back because they know theres a great chance Fitzpatrick throws an INT anyways, teams not respecting the run at all... things change year to year. I dont expect Miami to be a playoff team overnight, but you can be a RB on a bad team and still show some fantasy relevance. See Kenyan Drake/Chase Edmunds, Ekler, Mixon, Barkley... in fact I think all of those guys averaged rb1 numbers minus the AZ crew...

Mixon had a worse situation than Miami and was in a timeshare of sorts... he still finished pretty strong. 

I'm not passing on a Miami back because he is drafted by Miami. It wont be a great spot but I dont see it as a bad one either
I agree. For a RB opportunity/volume trumps almost every other factor.

 
I would also agree that Miami is the most attractive landing spot for a rookie RB - he would be my #1 target for fantasy purposes. That said, I could see a guy like Gordon signing there in free agency, which would reduce the value of that rookie spot.

 
You have said nothing about Singletary other than his height, weight, and raw rushing numbers for the year. You’ve admittedly not watched him play. Your opinion is armchair analysis dressed up as an educated take.  Please point me to the facts that would indicate Singletary won’t continue to succeed in the league. He has roughly the same weight and height as Aaron Jones and Lesean McCoy and is bigger than Phillip Lindsey and Austin Ekeler. All 4 have found multiple years of success in the league.

Clearly you aren’t going to be swayed to change your opinion or even find the facts to back it up. That’s fine but there are others who read these threads for discussion and insight. I want to point out for those people that your opinion is grounded in only in naked statistics and encourage them to dive deeper to form their own opinion.

I’m sure there are people out there who don’t like him as a player and have the research to support it. Differing opinions make for great discussion and I would welcome that. For the main topic though, I do not believe that Buffalo is a good landing spot for an RB this year as Singletary has shown the skill necessary to get the job done. If you look at his stats, you will see a guy who missed 4 game with a hammy, started in the second half of the season, and was very efficient with those starts. He will likely get vultures by Allen on TDs so while it will look like he was lacking in the redzone, he also wasn’t given a lot of opportunity. If one of the top 4 or 5 RBs goes to Buffalo, that would probably spell trouble for both players as they would eat into each other. If someone gets drafted round 4 or later (which I kind of expect), I would be extremely skeptical about the hype around them a la Dexter Williams last year. Singletary will probably split work with someone, he profiles as a 15-20 carry RB with passing down ability, but I wouldn’t be excited for anybody sharing the backfield in Buffalo (other than Allen of course)
Great call

 

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