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Pre free agency buy/sell (1 Viewer)

cloppbeast

Footballguy
Free agency obviously affects a players value. Who are you expecting to increase or decrease during?

Some candidates:

Austin Ekeler, Kenyon Drake, DJ, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, AB, Jordan Howard

 
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Free agency obviously affects a players value. Who are you expecting to increase or decrease during by switching teams or staying put?

Some candidates:

Austin Ekeler, Kenyon Drake, DJ, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, AB, Jordan Howard
Just popping in to state the obvious in that you'll know Ekeler if you know Gordon, and vice-versa.

I think Drake benefits by staying in AZ. Johnson looked like toast. But again, that's like Ekeler and Gordon.

Tom Brady's value increases in Indy or SD. Same with Philip Rivers and Indy.

Cam's value depends on his foot, not his situation. He's not going anywhere to be a backup.

AB is going nowhere to nobody.

Jordan Howard is best off going somewhere he can plod in pastures freely.  

 
Just popping in to state the obvious in that you'll know Ekeler if you know Gordon, and vice-versa.

I think Drake benefits by staying in AZ. Johnson looked like toast. But again, that's like Ekeler and Gordon.

Tom Brady's value increases in Indy or SD. Same with Philip Rivers and Indy.

Cam's value depends on his foot, not his situation. He's not going anywhere to be a backup.

AB is going nowhere to nobody.

Jordan Howard is best off going somewhere he can plod in pastures freely.  
Maybe I didn't phrase my question correctly. 

Is there anybody you're buying in anticipation of getting a better situation, or selling because it should get worse?

Drake, for example. Is he just a glorified Duke Johnson or poised to be a RB1 for the foreseeable future? 

 
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In 2 QB or Superflex leagues I'm interested to see if T-Mobile ends up being the starter for the Chargers. He has always produced for fantasy and is a cheap/free flyer right now to hold and see what happens.

Hoping someone takes a shot on Hunt being their RB1, can't deny his talent and versatility.

 
Free agency obviously affects a players value. Who are you expecting to increase or decrease during?

Some candidates:

Austin Ekeler, Kenyon Drake, DJ, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, AB, Jordan Howard
Ekeler and Gordon gain value just from separating. 

Drake is fool's gold in my opinion. He has 2 nice finishes to seasons, but I think he's not going to be a reliable player. He's a great sell-high if someone thinks his Cards finish is the expectation.

Johnson and Howard I think are guys where the trade value has passed, and even if they end up in a favorable spot, I'd be worried about the draft ruining that.

I might be wrong, but I think its entirely possible the Cards dump DJ, and don't re-sign Drake. Could easily go with Edmonds and a rookie, if Drake wants to be paid like a franchise RB.

Newton's value is probably the same regardless of team, he's not a guy I'm expecting much from. Brady and Rivers value's could go either way. Rivers will find a better o-line, but fewer weapons, and Brady will likely get the reverse.

Brown is an entirely different conversation. If someone signs him, I'll be interested, because talent wise, he's likely still a top-10 WR. Not that he'll ever cost that again, as he could be done at any moment, assuming he isn't already.

 
IMO some of you are mentioning players whose value is already quite high and frankly FA has a better chance of lowering it. Ekeler being a prime example. He's going late 2/early round 3 of redrafts. Drake going round 3. I'm not sure even if Drake gets resigned and Chargers let Gordon walk we see those values increase? Maybe I'm wrong but would not increase to me.  Gordon is also round 3 but I could see him improving a little since he's a year removed from being a first round player. I know this more of a dynasty discussion, or at least I think, but can draw some parallels from redraft value.

I'll mention some players I think can increase their stock and some of them can also decrease and I'll mention that as well.

Ebron, especially in TE premium leagues.

Chase Edmonds if they don't resign Drake. They would probably acquire a RB but he'd at least have a nice sell high window, like what we saw with Cohen last year from the timeframe of when they traded Howard to drafting Montgomery. Also I think Edmonds is just as good as Drake.

TY Hilton if Colts bring in veteran QB upgrade. He's being priced right now like Jacoby is his QB for life.

Hunter Henry and I say that because I'm a big HH truther but I'm worried about Tyrod/rookie QB duo and have lowered his current outlook because I don't think LAC will let him leave, they'll tag him if they can't agree on a deal. So if LAC don't get a  vet QB and keep him, his stock is going down.

Amari Cooper and granted he could fall in value as well but I think there are a lot of places he could go and do a lot better then 119 targets which is awfully low for a teams #1WR. On that same note, if he leaves for some Gallup will increase. (Side note I think Dallas 100% keeps him if no new CBA is agreed upon before new league year but will get dicey if not)

Austin Hooper- I think he can drop a great deal. He and Ryan were good buddies, had a connection, had almost all of his production when team was trailing and teams were more willing to not let Julio or Ridley beat them.

Kareem Hunt could see massive increase if he gets out of Cleveland and  becomes feature back, which I don't think he will.

On another note I don't think Steeler's sign a FA RB of note, some have put Gordon on Steelers, I don't see it but would be obvious blow to Conner.

I'll list AB because he's basically free and I still think he has a good shot to play next year but I'm not sure he should be in this discussion mainly because I think if he does sign with someone it's going to be more in the summer when his legal and NFL situations are possibly resolved. After all he's free to sign with anyone today, the FA period is not holding him back.

If Tampa moves on from Winston any QB that takes his job would see immense value increase.

Winston on the flip side of that can see his value crushed to the point of almost nothing.

Breshad Perriman, might be fools gold to me and you, but if he lands well his value will increase.

Robbie Anderson. Never been a big fan but he does separate well and starting to get hard to ignore the success of players who leave Gase. Put him or Perriman in Philly for example and I'm higher on them.

These two players are not FA's but when new league year opens so often does trade market. Njoku and OJ Howard could both strongly benefit from a change of scenery. I'd put Mike Williams in this group as well. I don't think LAC is inclined to shop him but he was criminally underused and if they feel need to move up for a QB they might have to part with something.

Emmanuel Sanders. I know he's old but don't forget how strong he started last year in Denver, it's extremely difficult to switch teams midseason at WR. Dynasty his value can't go up to much but could be a nice addition to get a team over the hump for a year.

 
IMO some of you are mentioning players whose value is already quite high and frankly FA has a better chance of lowering it. Ekeler being a prime example. He's going late 2/early round 3 of redrafts. Drake going round 3. I'm not sure even if Drake gets resigned and Chargers let Gordon walk we see those values increase? Maybe I'm wrong but would not increase to me.  Gordon is also round 3 but I could see him improving a little since he's a year removed from being a first round player. I know this more of a dynasty discussion, or at least I think, but can draw some parallels from redraft value.

I'll mention some players I think can increase their stock and some of them can also decrease and I'll mention that as well.

Ebron, especially in TE premium leagues.

Chase Edmonds if they don't resign Drake. They would probably acquire a RB but he'd at least have a nice sell high window, like what we saw with Cohen last year from the timeframe of when they traded Howard to drafting Montgomery. Also I think Edmonds is just as good as Drake.

TY Hilton if Colts bring in veteran QB upgrade. He's being priced right now like Jacoby is his QB for life.

Hunter Henry and I say that because I'm a big HH truther but I'm worried about Tyrod/rookie QB duo and have lowered his current outlook because I don't think LAC will let him leave, they'll tag him if they can't agree on a deal. So if LAC don't get a  vet QB and keep him, his stock is going down.

Amari Cooper and granted he could fall in value as well but I think there are a lot of places he could go and do a lot better then 119 targets which is awfully low for a teams #1WR. On that same note, if he leaves for some Gallup will increase. (Side note I think Dallas 100% keeps him if no new CBA is agreed upon before new league year but will get dicey if not)

Austin Hooper- I think he can drop a great deal. He and Ryan were good buddies, had a connection, had almost all of his production when team was trailing and teams were more willing to not let Julio or Ridley beat them.

Kareem Hunt could see massive increase if he gets out of Cleveland and  becomes feature back, which I don't think he will.

On another note I don't think Steeler's sign a FA RB of note, some have put Gordon on Steelers, I don't see it but would be obvious blow to Conner.

I'll list AB because he's basically free and I still think he has a good shot to play next year but I'm not sure he should be in this discussion mainly because I think if he does sign with someone it's going to be more in the summer when his legal and NFL situations are possibly resolved. After all he's free to sign with anyone today, the FA period is not holding him back.

If Tampa moves on from Winston any QB that takes his job would see immense value increase.

Winston on the flip side of that can see his value crushed to the point of almost nothing.

Breshad Perriman, might be fools gold to me and you, but if he lands well his value will increase.

Robbie Anderson. Never been a big fan but he does separate well and starting to get hard to ignore the success of players who leave Gase. Put him or Perriman in Philly for example and I'm higher on them.

These two players are not FA's but when new league year opens so often does trade market. Njoku and OJ Howard could both strongly benefit from a change of scenery. I'd put Mike Williams in this group as well. I don't think LAC is inclined to shop him but he was criminally underused and if they feel need to move up for a QB they might have to part with something.

Emmanuel Sanders. I know he's old but don't forget how strong he started last year in Denver, it's extremely difficult to switch teams midseason at WR. Dynasty his value can't go up to much but could be a nice addition to get a team over the hump for a year.
Good list. I agree with you about T.Y. Potential there if they get a decent passer. It really couldn't get much worse no matter who they brought in. Same goes for the Carolina receivers especially Samuels. 

Hooper was one which I forgot. A lot of his production resulted from pairing with Ryan and garbage time. Thing is, I think this is baked into his price. I haven't seen many monster deals for him. There's a good chance he never sniffs his 2019 stats, but he might not have to for a pay off. I would put him in the buy category on the off chance he stays in Atl and keeps the connection with Ryan.

 
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desean jackson is dirt cheep right now and could give you a few weeks of wr2+ production somewhere.

might be worth it. 

 
Good list. I agree with you about T.Y. Potential there if they get a decent passer. It really couldn't get much worse no matter who they brought in. Same goes for Carilina receivers especially Samuels. 

Hooper was one which I forgot. A lot of his production resulted from pairing with Ryan and garbage time. Thing is, I think this is baked into his price. I haven't seen many monster deals for him. There's a good chance he never sniffs his 2019 stats, but he might not have to for a pay off. I would honestly put him in the buy category on the off chance he stays in Atl and keeps the connection with Ryan.
Thanks. Now on Ty I think it's almost more of a perception of Jacoby then a reality but it's still depressing his market and for sure I think he could do with a QB upgrade. Was not much of a sample size to work with but before TY got hurt, and then later Jacoby, Hilton had actually got off to a solid start first 5 weeks or so before injuries hit.

On Hooper.  I mainly play FFPC. I don't have much, well really any, dynasty startup value but I try and take redraft date, adjust for age and correlate it to some degree. Right now in FFPC Hooper's redraft ADP is 4.12,  TE6, over Engram and Henry.  I can't recall seeing him traded, maybe that is factored into his price. Where I think LAC lock up Henry with franchise tag it sure sounds like Atlanta's interest in keeping Hooper is low, but maybe they are just really good poker players.

 
Thanks. Now on Ty I think it's almost more of a perception of Jacoby then a reality but it's still depressing his market and for sure I think he could do with a QB upgrade.
what would be a good offer to make for him in dynasty?

a late first, 1.12 maybe?  more? less?

 
what would be a good offer to make for him in dynasty?

a late first, 1.12 maybe?  more? less?
I’d go around that area or less. I did offer 2.1, 13, for him in a league and he countered wanting 8 and 11 but that guy is trapped in 2017. 

I also offered up TY in a deal straight for Diontae Johnson. Got rejected with comment “not so long as Jacoby is his QB”.
 

Saw someone recently post in trade thread he went for 2.8 in FFPC. Did not see anyone comment on that deal.

 
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what would be a good offer to make for him in dynasty?

a late first, 1.12 maybe?  more? less?
Mid season last year I needed WR depth for a playoff run. I ended up trading my 2020 1st, which I knew would be late for TY and John Ross.  The 1st ended up being 1.12.  So I gave 1.12 for TY and John Ross.  
 

 
I gave 1.12 for TY and John Ross. 
thinking of offering (1.14 and fitzgerald) for (ty hilton).

i dont like to haggle so i might need to spice it up.

he took 4th = 1.10, and is not in rebuild.

i going to wait until around draft time when things heat up.

 
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I'm buying:

James Conner - I just think his value will spike after FA and the draft, so now is a good time.

Ebron - I have been a strong defender forever but hard to ignore him getting cut the last couple years - his drops had improved nearly every year so I wonder if he is a locker room cancer or if there is something personality/work ethic wise, but otherwise we have to expect he goes somewhere that uses him - imagine if the Cowboys picked him up, just saying.

Vet RBs like Mostert/Ingram/Duke - They're probably all pretty cheap dart throws for win-now teams. I imagine you can get paid to take Duke off someone's hands. But doesn't Houston have like no draft capital left for an early RB? And if Hyde walks there is at least a glimmer of hope that Duke wins early down stuff. I am not holding my breath but if I had room I would probably take Duke for pennies. My bet is that everyone who says Duke will never be an early down guy (even among those of us that always thought he could) are probably right. But the fact that OBrien gave up so much gives me pause. 

Juju - criminally undervalued right now. One bad season with injuries and really bad QB play and people have totally wrote him off. I shouldn't even include him here since I own him in every one of my dynasties. But I would be trying to buy like crazy right now if I didn't. 23 years old until halfway thru next season. Insane.

Not sure if this thread was intended for strictly actual free agents, but it seems to me like FA and the draft are major inflection points in value (for those affected by the results of those events) and worth monitoring for the sake of all our players, not just FAs. 

 

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