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James Daulton

Government Response To The Coronavirus

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18 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

I am not against social isolation for a few weeks.  I am against an indefinite period of social isolation which many seem to advocate.  We need to plan for re-opening while putting precautions in place.  

I guess I have seen nobody advocating for an indefinite period of social isolation.  

Maybe I need you to define that so I know what you mean.   What I have seen is we should have social isolated and shut down more than we have for 2-3 week WITH a plan in place to help people and businesses during that time.  At that time implement as much WFH, limiting large groups, etc..    Problem is we have done neither - we can barely do the social isolate thing, and we for sure didn't have a plan in place.    IMO we have hurt the economy so much more by being wishy washy as a country by not being decisive from the start and/or having testing.   Now we people who have been out of a job for a week +, still haven't locked much down, and we are still staring at handfuls of hotspots that could be a huge problem.  

Again, I still fail to see where you are coming from when you say we are handling any of this well.  

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2 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

Your characterization is utterly ridiculous, but will receive many likes here because this forum lacks any balance in intellectual honesty....but in other news

 

John Hopkins has rated the US #1 in the world in preparedness for epidemics.  

It rates capabilities.  We are now at the implementation stage.  And failing.

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3 minutes ago, jon_mx said:
13 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

jon_mx:  We need to reopen stuff so we don't kill our economy.

Others:  Social distancing is working.  Now isn't the time to stop.

jon_mx:  Not now.  Once we have precautions in place.

Others:  Precautions aren't in place yet.

jon_mx:  They will be.

Others:  When?

jon_mx:  Later.

Others:  Perfect.  Let's discuss reopening once we know when precautions will be in place.

jon_mx:  But we can't continue like this indefinitely!

 

Edit to add:  No offense, but that's how this entire line of argument comes across on the other end.  The precautions aren't in place today and we don't have any indication when they will be.  Until then, it is premature to discuss ending the one thing that may actually be working in our favor.

Your characterization is utterly ridiculous, but will receive many likes here because this forum lacks any balance in intellectual honesty.

As I said, this is how it comes across.  I'm willing to try to understand where it's incorrect.

What precautions?  When will they be in place?

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3 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

Your characterization is utterly ridiculous, but will receive many likes here because this forums lacks any balance in intellectually honesty....but in other news

 

John Hopkins has rated the US #1 in the world in preparedness for epidemics.  

So we are the most prepared based on their criteria.  How do they rate how well we carry out dealing with a pandemic though?

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3 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

Your characterization is utterly ridiculous, but will receive many likes here because this forum lacks any balance in intellectual honesty....but in other news

 

John Hopkins has rated the US #1 in the world in preparedness for epidemics.  

According to existing infrastructure and other factors in 2019, but not according to this administration’s response though, right?

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4 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

I am not ignoring anything.  We need to start planning and putting expected behavior changes in place.  

Yes. When you try to prop up Japan without admitting the complete differences and questions about them...you ignore quite a bit.

Yes. A plan in place would be great...it isn't going to happen here and I dont trust Trump or his made up timelines at this point.

Its also likely to be regional more on the mayoral level (as I also trust our mayor right now more than our governor and his inaction.

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9 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

I am not ignoring anything.  We need to start planning and putting expected behavior changes in place.  

Who is going to perform this "planning?" What experts? What agencies or organizations? What will the plan be? Who do you trust right now in government to make the correct plan knowing that if it is incorrect,  it could cost you/ your loved ones their lives? 

And what segment of the public do you trust to carry out said plan? To act in the best interests of everyone,  not just themselves?

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So how many people are we testing now? Trump said yesterday that we’re testing more than any other country. What are the facts on this? 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Herb said:

Who is going to perform this "planning?" What experts? What agencies or organizations? What will the plan be? Who do you trust right now in government to make the correct plan knowing that if it is incorrect,  it could cost you/ your loved ones their lives? 

And what segment of the public do you trust to carry out said plan? To act in the best interests of everyone,  not just themselves?

Yes. I dont want planning left up to the same people who said this was just the flu...no big deal...to those who were against shutting down large events...to those who downplayed this from the beginning.

Edited by sho nuff

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1 minute ago, sho nuff said:

Yes. I dint want planning left up to the same people who said this was just the flu...no big deal...to those who were against shutting down large events...to those who downplayed this from the beginning.

We really have no other choice.  Trump isn't inclined to bring in people who might tell him what he is doing wrong.  He already got rid of a bunch of those.

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9 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

As I said, this is how it comes across.  I'm willing to try to understand where it's incorrect.

What precautions?  When will they be in place?

It is how dishonest partisans characterize it.  You ignore the irrational sensationalized points on one side and exaggerate my points.   

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1 minute ago, timschochet said:

Also @jon_mx I can’t speak to what you’re seeing nationwide but here in California our numbers are doubling every 3-4 days and our hospitals are being overwhelmed: 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/health/coronavirus-thousand-deaths-thursday/index.html

We don’t know that.  We are doing a lot more testing and those tests are now turning around much faster.

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1 minute ago, jon_mx said:

It is how dishonest partisans characterize it.  You ignore the irrational sensationalized points on one side and exaggerate my points.   

I'm neither dishonest nor partisan.  I'm legitimately asking which piece is a mischaracterization, and I stated as much in the edit to the post.

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1 minute ago, jon_mx said:

It is how dishonest partisans characterize it.  You ignore the irrational sensationalized points on one side and exaggerate my points.   

It’s amazing how all these conservative posters suddenly became hardcore Democratic partisans.

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Just now, jonessed said:

We don’t know that.  We are doing a lot more testing and those tests are now turning around much faster.

Not calling you out specifically, but do we have a link to testing information state by state?

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1 minute ago, jonessed said:

We don’t know that.  We are doing a lot more testing and those tests are now turning around much faster.

I'm not at all sure this is accurate.  I know for a fact it is not accurate in my location.

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2 minutes ago, jonessed said:

We don’t know that.  We are doing a lot more testing and those tests are now turning around much faster.

Which is why I asked how many more tests are we doing? 

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Posted (edited)

Testing 123

Eta:

The data isn’t perfect. Since the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hasn’t yet begun publicly releasing the number of people who have been tested, 

Edited by Snorkelson

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

I'm not at all sure this is accurate.  I know for a fact it is not accurate in my location.

Same, Minnesota isn't testing unless you're bad enough to be hospitalized due to shortage of supplies for testing.

Edited by mcintyre1

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1 minute ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

It’s amazing how all these conservative posters suddenly became hardcore Democratic partisans.

I missed a lot of time on these forums, for reasons I won't get into.  A number of years ago, the folks I would consider "reasonable, rational, non-knee-jerk-partisan conservative posters" probably included @Yankee23Fan, @IvanKaramazov, and @Andy Dufresne, among others.  I notice I don't see a single one of them sticking up for Trump's actions, policies, or rhetoric.

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CDC not releasing information on testing. Transparency is lacking here, imagine that.

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2 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I found the answer to my question:

https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

As of yesterday we’ve tested 418,000 people. Given that there are over 300 million people in this country that seems like too small a number. 

Anybody who wants a test gets a test.

Must not be enough people wanting a test.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Not calling you out specifically, but do we have a link to testing information state by state?

The number of tests being carried out?  I’m not aware.  I know the hospitals are ramping up, but I’m not sure who is collecting total test counts on a larger scale.  I’m aware of the turnaround times because I’m close with a lot of hospital administrators and infectious disease nurses.  I live in a big medical hub.  

It’s still only the very sick that are being tested.

Edited by jonessed

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15 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

It is how dishonest partisans characterize it.  You ignore the irrational sensationalized points on one side and exaggerate my points.   

I don't know how or why you keep coming back to this place if this is how you truly feel. 

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12 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

I'm not at all sure this is accurate.  I know for a fact it is not accurate in my location.

California test results have gone from two weeks, to one week, to three or four days, to 24 hours now.  There are delays in communicating negative results to those self-quarantining from what I understand.  That’s not because of testing times though.  That’s more to do with prioritizing resources.  I imagine that varies by hospital.

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33 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

Your characterization is utterly ridiculous, but will receive many likes here because this forum lacks any balance in intellectual honesty....but in other news

 

John Hopkins has rated the US #1 in the world in preparedness for epidemics.  

It looks like that report is dated October, 2019.  I thought we were totally unprepared until this pandemic hit because of the prior administration's failures. I mean, lots of people are saying that.

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4 hours ago, Tom Skerritt said:

No way the mortality rate reaches those numbers. As we’ve discussed in here many times, it will likely be in the 0.6-0.8% range when all is said and done. Maybe 1%, but that’s extreme. 
 

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

You are assuming we don't run out if ventilators 

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15 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Testing 123

Eta:

The data isn’t perfect. Since the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hasn’t yet begun publicly releasing the number of people who have been tested, 

 

7 minutes ago, jonessed said:

The number of tests being carried out?  I’m not aware.  I know the hospitals are ramping up, but I’m not sure who is collecting total test counts on a larger scale.  I’m aware of the turnaround times because I’m close with a lot of hospital administrators and infectious disease nurses.  I live in a big medical hub.  

It’s still only the very sick that are being tested.

Look at the numbers in the link, we seem to be doing more but we aren’t testing enough.

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You know what would be extremely valuable? If we had a "# of patients tested" column on these awesome charts from places like World-o-Meters and Johns Hopkins. Of course, we'd have to make that data public in the process.

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2 minutes ago, RnR said:

You know what would be extremely valuable? If we had a "# of patients tested" column on these awesome charts from places like World-o-Meters and Johns Hopkins. Of course, we'd have to make that data public in the process.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#

spreadsheet from covidtracking.com

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At this point I think we should just ignore Drunken Cowboy. He's going out of his way to extrapolate worst-case scenarios that our expert epidemiologists have already dismissed as alarmist fodder. Like, as recently as yesterday in front of the nation. It's not happening like that, man. And thank God it isn't.

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2 hours ago, Tom Skerritt said:

It could also be that the data is just wrong or incomplete. Have to wait and see. 

Sure, otoh Jon is probably  correct that the daily deaths is the best data point available.   Maybe tracking how many people are hospitalized would be better but I haven't seen any data for that.

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4 hours ago, jon_mx said:

A 10 percent increase from the previous day is a slowdown in the growth. 

13355/11075 isn't a 10% increase and it isn't a slowdown in growth. It is actually a bigger jump both as a percentage and as a raw number than the previous 2 days. I really think you need to start doing some due diligence before posting in here.

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i know when i have to give customers bad news i like to keep on doing every other week by delaying my timetable instead of telling them it will be three months.

They love it and never catch on and call me on my BS.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, RnR said:

Nice. I hadn't seen that one yet. I'll dive in. Out of curiosity, how are they sourcing this?

https://covidtracking.com/data/

or on the 'States' tab of the spreadsheet.

Edited by BroadwayG
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2 minutes ago, Daywalker said:

i know when i have to give customers bad news i like to keep on doing every other week by delaying my timetable instead of telling them it will be three months.

They love it and never catch on and call me on my BS.

:shrug:

To be fair, he did already throw July-August out there as a timeline for being past this. People didn't like that, so he's trying something different. haha

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7 minutes ago, rcam said:

13355/11075 isn't a 10% increase and it isn't a slowdown in growth. It is actually a bigger jump both as a percentage and as a raw number than the previous 2 days. I really think you need to start doing some due diligence before posting in here.

I focus on death numbers since those are more concrete. 

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Trump was briefed on the coming global pandemic in early Jan.  
 

He did nothing along with providing cover for China/Xi i until mid Feb.
 

Trump was part of the China lie that he is trying use as an excuse.

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3 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

I guess we can now see why the Trump administration was asking states to withhold the release of jobless numbers as long as possible. They're unprecedentedly bad:

3.28 million new jobless claims for the week. Smashes the worst peak week of the 2008/2009 crisis (665,000) or the highest ever in 1982 (695,000).

Doesn't count all those who couldn't get through to apply.  But on the bright side my neighbor works for Bureau of Labor Stats.  Says that unemployment is calculated mid-month, so the numbers that come out the first Fri. in April won't be bad.  The first Friday in May, however, . . . 

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5 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

I focus on death numbers since those are more concrete. 

While I agree that's ultimately going to be the guiding number, it's important to remember that those numbers lag significantly behind the testing numbers. The deaths aren't always quick.

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1 minute ago, Go DC Yourself said:

Doesn't count all those who couldn't get through to apply.  But on the bright side my neighbor works for Bureau of Labor Stats.  Says that unemployment is calculated mid-month, so the numbers that come out the first Fri. in April won't be bad.  The first Friday in May, however, . . . 

Why would hiding these numbers matter?  Everyone knows the reason, it isn't anything to hide.

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It's going to be interesting to see how the unemployment numbers move in the coming weeks. I've been trying to tally all the major employers who say they're making huge hiring moves now (ex. Walmart adding 150,000 employees). I've come to a mental tally over 1 million new jobs available (I'm sure many of them are temporary, but still). Given the generosity of the pending bill re: $600 per week per unemployed person, I wonder if that will actually keep those new jobs from filling as quickly as they could. I know I'd probably opt for the checks to be able to socially distance with my family rather than take one of those jobs.

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1 minute ago, RnR said:

While I agree that's ultimately going to be the guiding number, it's important to remember that those numbers lag significantly behind the testing numbers. The deaths aren't always quick.

Correct, probably lags about 18 days.  The increasing number of confirmed cases is still partially impacted by the increasing availability of testing.   But it is getting to be a more reliable indicator now.  

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2 minutes ago, KPD said:

Why would hiding these numbers matter?  Everyone knows the reason, it isn't anything to hide.

I made no reference to hiding, though I have seen something about OH refusing to directly release.  What I said was that there is an infrastructure for applying for benefits, and there have been reports that in places it has been overwhelmed, so that everyone seeking to apply wasn't able to.  The unemployment numbers are treated the same way every month, so there will be lag given that shutdowns didn't occur until the third week of this month.

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