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Covid 19 Cases in US by March 31st (1 Viewer)

Cases by the end of March in USA


  • Total voters
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Honestly before we heard about the California case I would have gone 100-300 but I think the likelihood is it will pop up in a few more places and then they won’t be able to control it.  Hoping I’m wrong.

 
Does this include the people brought here on purpose
Sure

Is this a question?  Poll is odd.
Assume you’re joking?

Honestly before we heard about the California case I would have gone 100-300 but I think the likelihood is it will pop up in a few more places and then they won’t be able to control it.  Hoping I’m wrong.
We’ve tested a few hundred people, other countries have been testing in the thousands. This case is unknown, how many more are surrounding this one unknown case?

Then, think about how many clusters of unknown cases there are right now. If we’re only at 500-1000 by the end of March, I’d be pretty happy about that. This #### is highly contagious and a death rate of at least 2.5%. I’m done responding to any idiot that compares this to the flu. Cities aren’t quarantined for the flu, schools aren’t shut for the flu, companies and citizens aren’t advised to put pandemic planning measures in place for the flu. 

 
I screwed up and misread as March 1st (still waking up).  Is this officially confirmed cases? 

A) Assuming our current CDC stance of refusing to test anyone that doesn't have Wuhan tattooed on their forehead and is on their deathbed: 301-500

B) Assuming we get our heads out of our asses and start testing more aggressively like the rest of the developed world: 2001-5000

 
Sure

Assume you’re joking?

We’ve tested a few hundred people, other countries have been testing in the thousands. This case is unknown, how many more are surrounding this one unknown case?

Then, think about how many clusters of unknown cases there are right now. If we’re only at 500-1000 by the end of March, I’d be pretty happy about that. This #### is highly contagious and a death rate of at least 2.5%. I’m done responding to any idiot that compares this to the flu. Cities aren’t quarantined for the flu, schools aren’t shut for the flu, companies and citizens aren’t advised to put pandemic planning measures in place for the flu. 
We don’t really know what the mortality rate is. In all likelihood, way more people have been exposed and contracted the virus but the cases were likely so mild that they didn’t even know they caught it. But they passed it on to other people. It can take a long time for symptoms to develop and they may not be severe at all. 

Using the flu is not a bad example. Tons of people get the flu. Some folks get a mild dose and don’t get treated. Thousands of people die from the flu every year in the most severe cases. 

COVID 19 is most severe in the same types of patients as the flu: the very old, the very young, and the immuno compromised. All we have to go on is the number of reported cases (ie those likely receiving treatment) and the number of reported fatalities. It certainly is open for debate as to what the death rate is, but it more than likely is a lot lower than 2.5%.

But people can’t run out and get a corona virus shot like they can a flu shot. There is also way more known about the flu and the medical community and society are better equipped to deal with it. 

And near where I live, schools and school systems this year HAVE been shutdown because the flu has been so bad. The towns haven’t been locked down, but in certain geographies the flu is a big problem. 

To be clear, I am not brushing off the coronavirus. It is a huge problem and serious health risk. But the more that we learn about it, the numbers may not be quite as deadly as they appear in the early going. It also may not be as bad once the weather warms up, but that is still something no one can accurately predict. 

 
We don’t really know what the mortality rate is. In all likelihood, way more people have been exposed and contracted the virus but the cases were likely so mild that they didn’t even know they caught it. But they passed it on to other people. It can take a long time for symptoms to develop and they may not be severe at all. 

Using the flu is not a bad example. Tons of people get the flu. Some folks get a mild dose and don’t get treated. Thousands of people die from the flu every year in the most severe cases. 

COVID 19 is most severe in the same types of patients as the flu: the very old, the very young, and the immuno compromised. All we have to go on is the number of reported cases (ie those likely receiving treatment) and the number of reported fatalities. It certainly is open for debate as to what the death rate is, but it more than likely is a lot lower than 2.5%.

But people can’t run out and get a corona virus shot like they can a flu shot. There is also way more known about the flu and the medical community and society are better equipped to deal with it. 

And near where I live, schools and school systems this year HAVE been shutdown because the flu has been so bad. The towns haven’t been locked down, but in certain geographies the flu is a big problem. 

To be clear, I am not brushing off the coronavirus. It is a huge problem and serious health risk. But the more that we learn about it, the numbers may not be quite as deadly as they appear in the early going. It also may not be as bad once the weather warms up, but that is still something no one can accurately predict. 
When was the last time a developed country like Japan closed their school system for a month due to the flu? I’ll hang up and listen.

 
Sure

Assume you’re joking?

We’ve tested a few hundred people, other countries have been testing in the thousands. This case is unknown, how many more are surrounding this one unknown case?

Then, think about how many clusters of unknown cases there are right now. If we’re only at 500-1000 by the end of March, I’d be pretty happy about that. This #### is highly contagious and a death rate of at least 2.5%. I’m done responding to any idiot that compares this to the flu. Cities aren’t quarantined for the flu, schools aren’t shut for the flu, companies and citizens aren’t advised to put pandemic planning measures in place for the flu. 
I'm really not knowledgeable enough to say whether comparing it to the flu is a bad idea or not - seems to be misleading to me.  But I'll just respond to the bolded.  They have closed schools for the flu - I don't recall ever hearing of them doing it for an entire school system like Japan just did however. 

 
I'm really not knowledgeable enough to say whether comparing it to the flu is a bad idea or not - seems to be misleading to me.  But I'll just respond to the bolded.  They have closed schools for the flu - I don't recall ever hearing of them doing it for an entire school system like Japan just did however. 
If a developed country like Japan closing their entire school system for a month doesn’t raise a red flag for someone, I’ll assume that same individual won’t be prepared if we face a similar situation.

My family has goods to last a month without going anywhere, I’ve got a lot cash from the bank on hand, and hopefully it will all stay precautionary, but we’re at least prepared.

 
If a developed country like Japan closing their entire school system for a month doesn’t raise a red flag for someone, I’ll assume that same individual won’t be prepared if we face a similar situation.

My family has goods to last a month without going anywhere, I’ve got a lot cash from the bank on hand, and hopefully it will all stay precautionary, but we’re at least prepared.
What’s the cash for? Throwing it at the flu? 

 
My not-based-on-much** estimate was ~5,000 ... and that's one of your cut-offs!

I went with "2001-5000" just out of optimism. But a lot is going to ride on the testing getting right in all 50 states and/or a federal testing protocol getting pushed down to the states and implemented ASAP.

** well, based on South Korea testing/confirming over 1,700 cases in the past nine days.

 
COVID 19 is most severe in the same types of patients as the flu: the very old, the very young, and the immuno compromised.
The old and the immuno-compromised, yes ... but so far, the young have made out very well. You wrote "very young", though -- where's that cut-off? I guess newborns would be susceptible to the worst of COVID ... but I'd expect, say, a 2-year old to get through it symptomless.

Based on right-now information. New info, of course, could come at any point.

 
The old and the immuno-compromised, yes ... but so far, the young have made out very well. You wrote "very young", though -- where's that cut-off? I guess newborns would be susceptible to the worst of COVID ... but I'd expect, say, a 2-year old to get through it symptomless.

Based on right-now information. New info, of course, could come at any point.
I thought I read somewhere that some newborns had caught it in China. But my overall point was that the most at risk people were the same ones that have a greater chance of getting serious cases of  the flu or pneumonia. 

I have no background in infectious diseases, no medical background, and am not well informed at all on the ins and out of the virus. It’s a very serious and scary situation. There is definitely a fear of the unknown factor in play. We’ll have to see how things progress and how quickly the clinicians and researchers can adapt. Who knows what the realities are, but healthy young people may not be at extreme risk. Would I want to get anywhere near it? Of course not. Should people be extremely concerned? Of course. Should people take a better safe than sorry and be prepared attitude? Absolutely. Am I losing sleep over things at this point? No. Subject to change in the future. But that’s me, and I won’t argue with people who have a different opinion. 

 
Can you elaborate on this?  Do you have canned goods, water and that kind of stuff?  Or do you have survival kits (or whatever they are called) that last for 25 years?
I have about 20 cases of water & about 75 containers of canned goods... Got some pasta and soups too. 

 
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Can you elaborate on this?  Do you have canned goods, water and that kind of stuff?  Or do you have survival kits (or whatever they are called) that last for 25 years?
I keep several cases of canned chicken/fish/and water for "just in case". As I use them up I just replace them via Costco

 
I get stocking up on food, since you might not want to head out to the grocery store, but for those hoarding water how would a virus compromise our water supply/tap water?

 
Over 5000. We have a population that won't listen and do what they are told to so they will ignore any warnings because well, some think they they just won't catch it and who is the govt or anyone to tell them what to do anyway. 

 
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When was the last time a developed country like Japan closed their school system for a month due to the flu? I’ll hang up and listen.
Was stationed in Japan from 2012 - 2016.   In March 2016, Japan closed the schools  for a couple of weeks because of flu.   I have no clue what the specific strain was, but it was awful.  

 
Over 5000. We have a population that won't listen and do what they are told to so they will ignore any warnings because well, some think they they just won't catch it and who is the govt or anyone to tell them what to do anyway. 
There will probably be some idiots on social media who go out of their way to try and get it just for content. 

 
I get stocking up on food, since you might not want to head out to the grocery store, but for those hoarding water how would a virus compromise our water supply/tap water?
I asked this in the main thread - I think the consensus is it’s overkill and little chance it’s needed.  I got a few cases but that’s not unusual for us.  What I did do is get a a few cases of Powerade and VitaminWater - symptoms are flu-like and it’s important to stay hydrated.  

 
Curious expectations of numbers infected in China before it hits a plateau 

Let's say it's really high like 1 million

1.386 Billion People - 1 million infected = 1.385 Billion uninfected

Maybe I'm just an optimist (I typically am) but I'm going to believe we look back at this as we do H1N1 (swine flu), SARS, Ebola, etc

News channels need content.  This absolutely qualifies as content.

 
Over 5,000, easily. Not everyone will be symptomatic necessarily but 5,000 people is an average of 100 per state. Some states like Alaska and Wyoming will probably have fewer cases but new York, Florida and California will easily make up for it.  It's hard to imagine this being contained so well that a couple hundred people in new York don't yet it this month.  

 
Cjw_55106 said:
I'm thinking if it gets as high as say, 500, how does it not get beyond 5000? 
This.  No way does it spread but only into the hundreds.  If it’s spreading, it’s got to be into the thousands, no?

 
Steeler said:
Can you elaborate on this?  Do you have canned goods, water and that kind of stuff?  Or do you have survival kits (or whatever they are called) that last for 25 years?
I keep asking this but why do you need water?   If there is an outbreak in the US do you think teh water supply is going to be shut down?

 

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