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Why did Bernie Sanders succeed with Latinos and fail with blacks? (1 Viewer)

timschochet

timschochet

Footballguy
So I’m very curious about this because I think it may tell us a lot about where we’re headed in terms of future politics. We know that in 2016 Bernie struggled to gain traction with both Latinos and Blacks. Over the last 4 years he has made a real and very concerted effort to attract both groups to his progressive agenda. Prior to less than a week ago, polling suggested that he had made significant, positive inroads with both groups. 

Yet when it came time to vote, blacks largely rejected Bernie in much the same percentages that they did in 2016. Latinos on the other hand, were far more receptive than they were in 2016. So the question is why, and what does it mean for the future? Are Latinos going to be the spearhead of the progressive movement while blacks remain centrist/conservative Democrats?or is this largely a generational divide? 

 
urbanhack said:
Maybe you should dig a bit deeper instead of talking about these groups as one whole block without any nuance. Or maybe you should find a more diverse message board to get different perspectives.

I don't know....maybe that's just me.
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The point of this thread is to try and dig a bit deeper. Your response strikes me a little rude. I thought it was an interesting topic. If you don’t, no worries but why bother to post? 

 
AOC probably helped.  She has been a fantastic surrogate for Sanders - in terms of motivating supporters.  I've watched a few of her warm-up speeches, and she knows how to work a crowd effectively.

And, has Bernie done better with "Latinos" - or did Bernie do well with Latinos in Nevada?  (I have not really seen any data from yesterday to have a clue)

 
Sinn Fein said:
AOC probably helped.  She has been a fantastic surrogate for Sanders - in terms of motivating supporters.  I've watched a few of her warm-up speeches, and she knows how to work a crowd effectively.

And, has Bernie done better with "Latinos" - or did Bernie do well with Latinos in Nevada?  (I have not really seen any data from yesterday to have a clue)
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Kornacki said in Texas, California, and Colorado as well. That’s why I raised the question. 

 
What was the average age of Latinos who voted v blacks who voted? What about sex breakdown?

Also - there isn't one answer. Urbanhack maybe could have been more polite, but he's basically right. Grouping Blacks or Latinos as one monolithic block is silly. There are a lot of variables that go into it.

 
I don't think black voters will continue to stay culturally and politically conservative. The whole nation is getting more secular and better educated about how leftist policies can benefit the average schmuck. 

 
Sinn Fein said:
AOC probably helped.  She has been a fantastic surrogate for Sanders - in terms of motivating supporters.  I've watched a few of her warm-up speeches, and she knows how to work a crowd effectively.

And, has Bernie done better with "Latinos" - or did Bernie do well with Latinos in Nevada?  (I have not really seen any data from yesterday to have a clue)
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There is Texas exit polling broken down by age and race in this article.  Bernie did well there with Latinos under 45 but older Latinos preferred Biden.  With African-Americans, Bernie won those under 30 but got clobbered with older African-Americans.

 
My guess is it can't really be broken down along cultural lines, but I suppose it also matters to see each candidate's stance on the issues facing the respective groups, and that may affect who they choose to support as well.

 
Personally, it's two fold...one thing stemming from the other.  It starts with age and morphs into familiarity. 

 
roadkill1292 said:
I don't think black voters will continue to stay culturally and politically conservative. The whole nation is getting more secular and better educated about how leftist policies can benefit the average schmuck. 
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If young voters don't flock to the voting booths that change will be long in coming

 
Right after the Nevada primary/caucus a reporter on MSNBC said she asked Latinos why they voted for Bernie and they said he was only one talking to them, specifically he was only candidate who ran ads directed to their community. I suspect the same may have held true in the Super Tuesday states and with Biden having no money to spend at all, why that minority favored Sanders. I imagine that should change in the contests in the coming weeks with Biden now flush with campaign money to target the Latino community.

As far as African Americans are concerned, despite what the Trump supporters are saying, they were much happier under the Obama presidency then they are under Trump (see voter suppression efforts by the GOP that Trump supports). They expect a continuation of the Obama years with Biden, while Bernie is a complete unknown and they be skeptical that his Socialist policies are workable and/or will really benefit them.

 
Short answer is I have no idea. But if you want my wild-a## guess, it's along the lines of what @BassNBrew was saying. 

Back in the '80s, the ultimate progressive gadfly was Jesse Jackson. But over the next few decades, African Americans became much more of a part of the Democratic Establishment, culminating in Obama's election. So the pragmatic choice for black voters has generally been to support the Establishment, since they've gotten something out of the deal.

That's been far less true for Latinos. In fact, I think one of the greatest failures of the Democratic Party over the past decade has been their inability to mobilize Latinos even as they were being horribly demonized by Republicans. You know that line Republicans have long used to try to win back black voters? "Dems take you for granted and do nothing for you until it's time to ask for your vote." I don't think it's true with African Americans. But it may be more true than not with Latinos. Given all that, they might conclude that it's more rational to support an outsider than the Establishment pick.

 
roadkill1292 said:
I don't think black voters will continue to stay culturally and politically conservative. The whole nation is getting more secular and better educated about how leftist policies can benefit the average schmuck. 
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Yeah, they're learning that they can't benefit them at all.

Democrats have been pandering to black voters every 4 years and guess what that's got them? 

Zero.  Nada.  Nothing.  Still broke and poor and not any better off.

Maybe one day they'll wake up and see how they've been scammed this entire time.

 
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I think Bernie did well in Nevada partially due to the high union membership. I have to think that's one of his highest demos for support. And there are a lot of Latinos in those unions in Nevada.

 
Why did Sanders fail with black voters?  I think Sanders does better with young minorities than older ones.  I thought they were making headway with older ones as well.  But South Carolina, and the results since, seem to have blown that theory out of the water.  I do think people underestimate the power of corporate media to manage public opinion.  By the time Sanders had to answer for socialism a gazillionth time, and not every other pharma/insurance-backed shill for why people are dying in the street, the damage was already done.  

I’ll be honest.  I’m disheartened by it.  I don’t mean to scold people for voting the way they do. I really don’t.  I just don’t understand what it is that they think they’re voting for.  Biden is a police state authoritarian.  He has argued viciously for policies that destroy young black men’s lives, and immigrants’ as well.  

Even now, today, he thinks there’s not enough research on marijuana to remove it from the list of controlled substances.  The health care system chews up the poor and spits them out.  Health insurance stocks exploded upon news of Biden’s turnaround.  It was Biden’s 40/50 years in the Beltway, and others like him, that made Trump possible.  

Perhaps the real problem is that Obama’s presidency was never properly understood for what it was.  When blacks see Obama, they don’t see Timothy Geithner and the banks they bailed out.  They don’t see the open air slave markets in Libya that Obama’s war brought back.  They don’t see the catastrophe in Yemen, or the drone that killed a 16 year old boy.  They don’t see him providing the cover Rick Snyder needed to tell lead-poisoned Flint residents the water was fine.  They don’t see the world burning behind the tv screen.  For the first time at long last, they just saw themselves.  

Not just African Americans either.  A solid majority of the electorate believes this myth. That’s how Biden gets to have the core image of a friendly sidekick who likes ice cream and was friends with Obama.  That’s how Michelle Obama gets glowing news coverage for passing candy to a war criminal.  People just don’t understand the real nature of political power.  

The failure of electoral politics to address these issues, and mass media to cover them in an honest way, will leave us no choice but to engage directly with the system as it is. We’re not going to like it when the time comes.  

 
ren hoek said:
Why did Sanders fail with black voters?  I think Sanders does better with young minorities than older ones.  I thought they were making headway with older ones as well.  But South Carolina, and the results since, seem to have blown that theory out of the water.  I do think people underestimate the power of corporate media to manage public opinion.  By the time Sanders had to answer for socialism a gazillionth time, and not every other pharma/insurance-backed shill for why people are dying in the street, the damage was already done.  

I’ll be honest.  I’m disheartened by it.  I don’t mean to scold people for voting the way they do. I really don’t.  I just don’t understand what it is that they think they’re voting for.  Biden is a police state authoritarian.  He has argued viciously for policies that destroy young black men’s lives, and immigrants’ as well.  

Even now, today, he thinks there’s not enough research on marijuana to remove it from the list of controlled substances.  The health care system chews up the poor and spits them out.  Health insurance stocks exploded upon news of Biden’s turnaround.  It was Biden’s 40/50 years in the Beltway, and others like him, that made Trump possible.  

Perhaps the real problem is that Obama’s presidency was never properly understood for what it was.  When blacks see Obama, they don’t see Timothy Geithner and the banks they bailed out.  They don’t see the open air slave markets in Libya that Obama’s war brought back.  They don’t see the catastrophe in Yemen, or the drone that killed a 16 year old boy.  They don’t see him providing the cover Rick Snyder needed to tell lead-poisoned Flint residents the water was fine.  They don’t see the world burning behind the tv screen.  For the first time at long last, they just saw themselves.  

Not just African Americans either.  A solid majority of the electorate believes this myth. That’s how Biden gets to have the core image of a friendly sidekick who likes ice cream and was friends with Obama.  That’s how Michelle Obama gets glowing news coverage for passing candy to a war criminal.  People just don’t understand the real nature of political power.  

The failure of electoral politics to address these issues, and mass media to cover them in an honest way, will leave us no choice but to engage directly with the system as it is. We’re not going to like it when the time comes.  
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Why you make some good points here, run, Bernie isn't this benevolent hero you think he is.

The dude has been a self-proclaimed socialist for 70 years.  We've seen the destruction socialism has done to countries who let it in the door.

He might fool people with the " Democratic socialism " nonsense, but that's all it really is is nonsense to fool people. Once he's in that's going to change real quick.  Bernie isn't changing for anyone or anything at 78 years of age.

 
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BladeRunner said:
Why you make some good points here, run, Bernie isn't this benevolent hero you think he is.

The dude has been a self-proclaimed socialist for 70 years.  We've seen the destruction socialism has done to countries who let it in the door.
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The way I see it, Sanders is the only viable path forward for ending the prison state, ending the dehumanization of immigrants, ending the drug war, ending apartheid in Israel, ending the pricegouging healthcare system.  He's not wonderful on anti-imperialism but he's a darn sight better than Biden & Trump.  I wouldn't care if he was a communist promising everybody a pretty pony if it meant we had a realistic shot at ending these sick programs.  In 1974 he recommended abolishing the CIA- hell yeah, sign me up for that! 

In the bureaucratic slog that is our somewhat Constitutional system, it is unlikely that we'd lurch forward into guillotining the rich.  He's not advocating much else other than policies that have worked demonstrably well in other countries, poll well on a national scale, and at least try to foster a more equitable society.  There are a ton of legitimate angles to attack him on without resorting to redscare boogeyman narratives.  

 
Smack Tripper said:
What is the answer you're looking for Tim?  
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I’m not. There is no point, no ulterior motive here. I have no particular argument to make. I’m Intrigued that blacks and Hispanics seem to be gravitating in two different directions but I haven’t developed any theory of my own as to why. I think a lot of the responses here have been both thoughtful and illuminating. 

 
timschochet said:
I’m not. There is no point, no ulterior motive here. I have no particular argument to make. I’m Intrigued that blacks and Hispanics seem to be gravitating in two different directions but I haven’t developed any theory of my own as to why. I think a lot of the responses here have been both thoughtful and illuminating. 
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You are having a difficult time understanding that two different races with two different histories in this country may have separate issues they are concerned with? Really?

The only way I could comprehend the bolded is that you think all minorities are concerned with the same issues.

 
When older, black, southern voters as a bloc say they don’t believe a candidate or that he’s full of it, it’s worth listening to.  Right or wrong, it is unlikely that one will change the collective viewpoint there. 
 

The older, black, southern voters I’ve spoken to don’t believe a word he says. They believe he’s selling a pie in the sky and knows he can’t do anything he says he will.  And every one points to him skipping the Selma commemoration to prove he/she was right. 

 
ShamrockPride said:
You are having a difficult time understanding that two different races with two different histories in this country may have separate issues they are concerned with? Really?

The only way I could comprehend the bolded is that you think all minorities are concerned with the same issues.
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I don’t think you’re reading what I wrote with much context at all. 

 
Henry Ford said:
When older, black, southern voters as a bloc say they don’t believe a candidate or that he’s full of it, it’s worth listening to.  Right or wrong, it is unlikely that one will change the collective viewpoint there. 
 

The older, black, southern voters I’ve spoken to don’t believe a word he says. They believe he’s selling a pie in the sky and knows he can’t do anything he says he will.  And every one points to him skipping the Selma commemoration to prove he/she was right. 
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What were their thoughts on Pete?  Did the reparations response have any impact?

 
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timschochet said:
I’m not. There is no point, no ulterior motive here. I have no particular argument to make. I’m Intrigued that blacks and Hispanics seem to be gravitating in two different directions but I haven’t developed any theory of my own as to why. I think a lot of the responses here have been both thoughtful and illuminating. 
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I remember there was a split in 2008 as well; blacks went for Obama and Latinos for Hillary. Which would seem to undercut my thesis about it being a function of views on the Establishment. 

Maybe it is just a bunch of stuff that happened.

 
BladeRunner said:
Yeah, they're learning that they can't benefit them at all.

Democrats have been pandering to black voters every 4 years and guess what that's got them? 

Zero.  Nada.  Nothing.  Still broke and poor and not any better off.

Maybe one day they'll wake up and see how they've been scammed this entire time.
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Minorities in this country don't feel safe with the Republican Party. We can argue honestly about what policies will benefit them the most but there's no debate that Dems have done a much better job at safeguarding minority political rights since LBJ. And that matters.

 
roadkill1292 said:
Minorities in this country don't feel safe with the Republican Party. We can argue honestly about what policies will benefit them the most but there's no debate that Dems have done a much better job at safeguarding minority political rights since LBJ. And that matters.
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Starting with the right to vote. In Texas the other day minorities had to wait for hours in line because for some reason they have less machines. This is shameful and deliberate. 

 
How much of Bernie's coalition is the college debt forgiveness or free college going forward crowd?  In the broadest possible generalization,  Is it possible this is lower priority as an impact or cultural priority in the black community?

 
timschochet said:
Starting with the right to vote. In Texas the other day minorities had to wait for hours in line because for some reason they have less machines. This is shameful and deliberate. 
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To be fair, it's possible that Republican turnout was light because things are a foregone conclusion on that side of the aisle. But it's undeniable that the state's closing of well over a hundred polling stations has and will adversely affect minority voters much more than it will white conservative ones.

If our conservative friends on this board want minorities to give their policies a fair chance, the first thing they have to do is stop making it harder for them to exercise their right to vote. They labored for 200 years without the right (in some parts of the country) and you cannot handwave away how important this is to them and expect them to vote for your candidates in any kind of numbers. Not only are these actions shameful on the part of red state GOPs but they will eventually bring down a tsunami on their heads that they can't suppress their way out of.

 
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