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Dynasty & Redraft: RB A.J. Dillon, Packers

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A 'Derrick Henry effect' in the 2020 NFL draft? If so, we see one possible clone (January 16, 2020)

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There still is a strong group of talent atop the RB class this year. We’re fans of the upper crust; in some order, J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State), D’Andre Swift (Georgia), Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin), Zack Moss (Utah), Travis Etienne (Clemson) make up parts of the first and second tier of what still should be one of the better RB classes in recent years.

But there’s no battering ram among them. Sure, all can win with some measures of power and force. None pack the same punch or possess a Henry-sized frame.

If there’s one back who could be a fairly decent facsimile, it would be Boston College’s AJ Dillion. At 250 pounds — and a body-fat percentage in the 6-to-8 percent range, scouts estimate — Dillon certainly has that kind of frame.

He’s also expected to be an NFL scouting combine winner if his past testing numbers hold true. Dillon should kill the vertical-jump portion of the testing — a measure of power and lower-body explosion — and he has been tested in the 4.4-second range in the 40-yard dash in college.

“That is probably the one back in this class I can think of [who] matches up physically and style-wise” to Henry, the national scout said.

Dillon’s body of work as a runner also has some Henry parallels. In 35 games at BC, Dillon ran 845 times for 4,382 yards (5.2-yard average) with 38 TDs. Compare that to Henry running 602 times for 3,591 yards (6.0-yard average) with 42 TDs at Alabama from 2013-2015. Interestingly, both were overlooked as receivers, too. Dillon put up a receiving line of 21-236-2, and Henry totaled 17-285-3 through the air.

Dillon figures to be a late Day 2 or early Day 3 option. With some of those key underclassmen thinning the position, and with Dillon’s possible combine bump, he could work his way into the top 75 or so picks. And don’t overlook the possible Henry factor if he keeps up his bludgeon-running on Sunday against the Chiefs and drags his Titans to a Super Bowl.

“I don’t know that they’re the same player, and Henry wasn’t even Henry before this season,” the national scout noted. “But I suppose there could be that team or two out there that sees the [parallels] and wants to run that kind of system. I could see that happening, sure.

“It’s easier to see something when it’s already been done [in the league], and the playoffs carry that extra weight, so to speak.”

Extra weight equals extra force. It will be fascinating to see whether Henry’s playoff run can dent what has been a decades-long priority shift away from the power run game and toward the pass.

 

Edited by Faust

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Boston College RB AJ Dillon ran the 40-yard dash in an unofficial 4.53 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Dillon (6'0/247) weighed in as the heaviest back at the combine and came out on Friday with a stellar 4.53-second first run in the 40. That's one-tenth of a second faster than Derrick Henry, who measured in at an identical 247 pounds back in 2016. Quickness and lateral agility are open questions with the Boston College standout, but when he gets that big body going in one direction, Dillon becomes a runaway train. A late Day 2 selection wouldn't be completely beyond the pale for the draft. NFL Media's Lance Zierlein compares Dillon to Steelers RB James Conner.

SOURCE: Matt Miller on Twitter

Feb 28, 2020, 7:58 PM ET

 

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Boston College RB AJ Dillon recorded a vertical jump of 41 inches at the NFL Scouting Combine.

We hesitate to invoke the name Derrick Henry when it comes to Dillon, but when it comes to a back performing in tests at size, the 6-foot, 247-pound Dillon (same weight as the Titans back) was putting in slightly better marks than those of King Henry on Friday. His 41-inch vertical jump was the best jump of any running back in Indianapolis -- and four inches better than Henry's 2016 jump -- and his 4.53-second 40-yard dash just barely bettered Henry's 4.54-second rumble from a few years back, while his broad jump went for 10-foot-11, one inch better than Henry's. He was a clear winner from the day, at least in terms of some of the less agility-centered tests.

SOURCE: NFL Draft on Twitter

Feb 28, 2020, 10:55 PM ET

 

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NFL Media's Lance Zierlein compared Boston College RB AJ Dillon to Pittsburgh Steelers RB James Conner.

"Dillon is capable of handling heavy workloads and wearing down defenses, but there is a concern from evaluators that it's taken a physical toll on him," Zierlein writes of the big Boston College back. Dillon measured in at 247 pounds for the combine, making him the heaviest back in Indianapolis. To the analyst's note on Dillon's workload, he finished out his Eagles career having taken 845 carries (including 300 or more carries in 2017 and 2019). Zierlein would like to see how Dillon plays carrying a little less bulk, explaining that "dropping weight and adding quickness could be the difference between a future as a committee back or starter."

SOURCE: NFL.com

Feb 25, 2020, 1:32 PM ET

 

 

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Redskins should stick with Dwayne Haskins; NFL combine risers

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BOSTON COLLEGE RB AJ DILLON: Derrick Henry-like impact?

The NFL's seismic shift to a pass-happy league has made it hard for big backs with old-school running styles to carve out a niche in the league, but teams looking for a classic workhorse with rushing-leader potential in the 2020 NFL Draft should cast their eyes on former Boston College standout AJ Dillon. 

The 6-foot, 247-pound bruiser not only possesses the size and strength to handle the workload as an RB1, but he is an explosive athlete with enough speed to take it the distance from anywhere on the field.

Prior to last week's NFL Scouting Combine, there wasn't a lot of buzz attached to Dillon's name despite an outstanding career resume that featured three straight 1,000-yard seasons and 38 rushing touchdowns. Skeptics questioned whether the big-bodied runner had enough juice to be a credible home-run threat in a power-based offense. Although Dillon had popped a few big runs during his three-year tenure at Boston College, he was viewed as more of a banger with a tough, hard-nosed style that made him ideally suited for a short-yardage and goal-line role as a pro.

However, after putting on a spectacular showing at the combine, scouts are beginning to reconsider their opinions based on Dillon's athletic testing numbers, which were nearly identical to reigning NFL rushing champion Derrick Henry's numbers at the event in 2016:

Dillon: 6-foot 3/8, 247 pounds; 4.53-second 40-yard dash; 41-inch vertical jump; 10-foot-11 broad jump; 23 reps on the bench press. 

Henry: 6-foot-2 5/8, 247 pounds; 4.54-second 40-yard dash; 37-inch vertical jump; 10-foot-10 broad jump; 22 reps on the bench press.

With those numbers in mind, I decided to give Dillon's tape a second look. After doing so, it's easy to envision the Boston College standout thriving as a bulldozer in an old-school offense that features a fullback (21 or 22 personnel) or multiple tight ends with a "dot" back (12 or 13 personnel). He exhibits good balance and body control in traffic, flashing surprising agility/movement skills for a 247-pound back. Dillon combines his subtle wiggle with a rugged temperament that enables him to mix finesse and physicality when he reaches the second level.

Studying Henry's 2019 campaign, I saw the second-team All-Pro runner tease and torment defenders with his combination of size and strength. He ran over opponents in the hole before running away from the pack when he reached the secondary. The fear of being pummeled by Henry altered the way defenders tackled, particularly defensive backs, in the open field and enabled the Tennessee Titans to bully opponents with a no-nonsense running game.

In Dillon, I can envision him having a similar impact on an offense that's committed to grinding it out between the tackles. He's capable of punishing opponents with a series of runs up the gut that leave the defense battered and bruised. Although Dillon's running style might require more patience from an offensive coordinator seeking to strike quickly against a defense, the cumulative effect of dealing with a rugged back with size, strength and power eventually leads to big plays at the end of games.

Considering how the Titans beat opponents down the stretch behind Henry and his punishing running style, I believe there are teams ready and willing to bring in the Boston College bruiser after a scintillating performance that raised eyebrows around Lucas Oil Stadium last week.

 

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39 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

hard to ignore

I agree those are very impressive numbers.

I cant help but remember Andre William's who also tested similarly high from BC as well.

Looking it up Williams was 10 to 15 lbs lighter though and while his jumps were also good, not quite as good as Dillon.

I was really high on Williams, so that makes me a bit gun shy here, although I likely shouldn't be.

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Vrabel has contacts at Ohio State and BC that he considers very close friends. A month ago, this guy was an intriguing back that won't go in the first. The last several years, those types often go far later than predicted. I thought he was an absolute lock to be a Titan then. Now that he's getting more love from the press, I don't know. We'll have to watch free agency play out first. The Titans are a perfect destination for him 

One scout's article this offseason illustrated the wonderful feet of offensive linemen and how many teams have been mostly concerned with feet. He closed by mentioning that none of those teams would really be a good landing spot for Henry if he didn't re-sign. I would guess it's the same for Dillon.

The Titans have only been linked to this guy and the fullbacks at the Spring League this offseason. Very little obvious strong interest in prospects thus far. 

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Watching Dillon, he reminds me of a faster Brandon Jacobs.    Not the best agility, great at running straight ahead, but also a bigger target.    I recall Jacobs doling out punishment, but taking it also.     Won't be surprised to see Dillon have a quick impact.....wont be surprised also, if he has a shorter career.

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He needs to show he can confidently catch the ball to have real value.

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33 minutes ago, domvin said:

Watching Dillon, he reminds me of a faster Brandon Jacobs.  

12 minutes ago, saintfool said:

He needs to show he can confidently catch the ball to have real value.

 

Sounds like the Derrick Henry discussions when he entered the league.

From a purely physical build the closest comp I can think of is Jerome Bettis.  Dillon is not nearly  as tall as Henry or Jacobs. Bettis is also only RB I can think of that had a higher BMI then Dillon.

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5 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Christian Okoye? Larry Johnson? Jamal Lewis? Michael Turner? Natrone Means?

Nice comps and BMI finds.

 

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Christian Okoye? Larry Johnson? Jamal Lewis? Michael Turner? Natrone Means?

The Nigerian Nightmare 6'1" 254
Larry Johnson 6'1" 235
Jamal Lewis 5'11" 245
Michael Turner 5'10" 247
Natrone Means 5'10" 245

Except Okoye makes them look tiny with those old shoulder pads. Even if he already had about 10 lbs on each of them.

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18 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

 

Except Okoye makes them look tiny with those old shoulder pads. Even if he already had about 10 lbs on each of them.

As an unrelated to fantasy side note I did a mortgage loan for Okoye back in the late 90's.  Never met him personally, whole transaction was handled over the phone, but was a super nice guy.  But I badly put my foot in my mouth during one conversation. Told him I was a excited to work with him(I was) because I was a big fan and I could feel the pride in his voice when I said this but then followed that up by saying I thought it was unfortunate that your upright running style led to so many injuries. Dead awkward silence ensued.

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Say TN Franchises Henry and drafts this guy in the 4th. How high up does that push him?

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Posted (edited)
On 3/9/2020 at 2:27 PM, Biabreakable said:

I agree those are very impressive numbers.

I cant help but remember Andre William's who also tested similarly high from BC as well.

Looking it up Williams was 10 to 15 lbs lighter though and while his jumps were also good, not quite as good as Dillon.

I was really high on Williams, so that makes me a bit gun shy here, although I likely shouldn't be.

I keep thinking of Williams as well. Fair to point out, Williams had 10 college receptions TOTAL over 4 years. Dillon exceeded that in just last season (13). 

Obviously neither one is Alvin Kamara as a receiver, but hopefully that means DIllon is a bit better in the passing game. 

ETA: Williams college numbers are nuts. How does a guy rush for 2100+ yards without a single catch in the same season?

Edited by jtd13

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, jtd13 said:

I keep thinking of Williams as well. Fair to point out, Williams had 10 college receptions TOTAL over 4 years. Dillon exceeded that in just last season (13). 

Obviously neither one is Alvin Kamara as a receiver, but hopefully that means DIllon is a bit better in the passing game. 

ETA: Williams college numbers are nuts. How does a guy rush for 2100+ yards without a single catch in the same season?

Dillon does seem a bit better than William's in several ways so I am expecting he will be a higher draft pick than William's as well.

I've only watched him a bit but he looks closer to the ground than Henry. Hes only 6 feet tall. Physically he reminds me of Marion Butts.

 

Edited by Biabreakable
Hes only not heavenly

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He's a huge MJD without losing the explosion.  A player from a different era. 

I love him.  Don't want to miss on Henry again, if he goes to the right team. 

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8 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Christian Okoye? Larry Johnson? Jamal Lewis? Michael Turner? Natrone Means?

T J Duckett!

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19 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

 A player from a different era. 

 

My thought on him exactly. This guy was born 15 years to late.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Looks like a Latavius Murray type to me.

I don't see his fantasy value being too big but I could see him putting a dent into someone else's value...kind of like what Jordan Howard has become.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Looks like a Latavius Murray type to me.

I think he can be better than Murray. He outruns defenders on the edges surprisingly well for someone his size. 

He's one of my fav RBs in the draft. I think he can be serviceable in the pass game, nothing special but serviceable. I think he's a great pick in round 4 for whichever team takes him. His fantasy appeal is determined greatly by which team takes him, that goes without saying.

Edited by pbandy1

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26 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

I think he can be better than Murray. He outruns defenders on the edges surprisingly well for someone his size. 

He's one of my fav RBs in the draft. I think he can be serviceable in the pass game, nothing special but serviceable. I think he's a great pick in round 4 for whichever team takes him. His fantasy appeal is determined greatly by which team takes him, that goes without saying.

I think he would be a nice addition to the Bills...would be a nice compliment to Singletary and could possibly help in those cold weather games.

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Speaking with The Athletic's Bob McGinn, one scout said that Titans RB Derrick Henry was a "much more natural runner coming out" than Boston College RB AJ Dillon.

The comparison between Dillon and King Henry is one tied not only to running style -- in a word, bruising -- but also in near identical combine measurements and tests. Said the above scout, "They lull you to sleep. They’re taller, not physical guys. But when you get to the third or fourth quarter, they’re just so heavy that people just get tired of hitting them." Voicing an opinion from the other side of the spectrum, another scout was actually disappointed with Dillon's toughness, explaining that "[h]e should be knocking people down. He should be like a bowling ball with the pins but he’s not." Derrick Henry is a tough comp to live up to, of course. But we'll just leave it out there that Henry, himself, was not viewed in many corners as a potential NFL starter during the lead-up to his selection. Guys with this size and athletic ability are unique.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Apr 22, 2020, 5:03 PM ET

 

 

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Ya gptta love how he tried to mimic just about any back you can name at some point in his career. Also that this is what he's proud of and discussing- not rushing for X yards in college but how he learned.

He video-d it and then did it again and again til he looked like the guy.

To be recognizing why one back does this and another back does that- there's something glorious about his 'student of the game' mentality.

He rose to late first some time before this CV stuff but quickly fell back to 2nd to 4th ranking he's been for much of the offseason. If he's not going to be asked to be a star day one, ya gotta appreciate that he loves the film room and to learn new techniques.

If he goes to the Titans, he'd probably wet himself when he starts learning from Eddie George (regular visitor) and Derrick Henry. I realize he could go to any of the other 31 and....it's gotta be the same- feed this kids thirst for knowledge. Don't just throw him out there and expect him to be a pro's pro and learn only on his own. 

Not fast enough- did ya hear his response of how he takes an angle and gauges the position of an inside foot? Not low enough- did ya hear him discuss Sweetness? Hands- I'm big enough to take a hit so I make sure to concentrate and bring the ball in first. Probably a coach drilled that into him. I can't recall what he said on blocking but it's his duty to do so. Duty? From a kid? Geesh, I love this kids answers and everything. By his own critique, he may need time and tutelage, I sure hope he gets it.

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Packers selected Boston College RB AJ Dillon with the No. 62 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Dillon (6’0/247) was a highly productive three-year starter at Boston College who earned three-straight first-team All-ACC honors in averaging at least 110 rushing yards and one touchdown per game in each season. He showcased 97th-percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism by running a 4.53 40 at Indy's combine, adding a 41-inch vertical to his hit-or-miss tape. Dillon was a punishing power back, but rarely broke off big runs and only caught 21 career passes. In the NFL, he profiles as a potential two-down committee back who has more top-speed than other goal-line backs, but will likely be subbed out on passing downs, limiting his overall appeal both on the field and in fantasy. Dillon's workload in his first year with the Packers is questionable, but his presence alone may allow the organization to forego extending Aaron Jones as the latter enters the final year of his rookie deal.

Apr 24, 2020, 9:24 PM ET

 

 

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Feel like no one is talking about this guy. Is it because he has Jones ahead of him?  
The guy is a 2nd round RB in a very good offense.  Am I looking too much into this?  

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1 minute ago, Mr. Peterson said:

Feel like no one is talking about this guy. Is it because he has Jones ahead of him?  
The guy is a 2nd round RB in a very good offense.  Am I looking too much into this?  

Lots of people talking about him, actually, but usually with the emphasis on what he means to Jones given Jones's contract. 

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14 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Lots of people talking about him, actually, but usually with the emphasis on what he means to Jones given Jones's contract. 

I’m seeing him ranked below guys like Vaughn even in standard formats.  In a non ppr league, how is he not considered a lock the first round?  
I know it’s completely different draft classes, but he went higher than Montgomery did last year and Montgomery was a top 3 pick.  Jones will not be on the Packers roster next year. 

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8 minutes ago, Mr. Peterson said:

I’m seeing him ranked below guys like Vaughn even in standard formats.  In a non ppr league, how is he not considered a lock the first round?  
I know it’s completely different draft classes, but he went higher than Montgomery did last year and Montgomery was a top 3 pick.  Jones will not be on the Packers roster next year. 

I guess you'd have to take it on faith that Jones won't be there for sure. That's why there has indeed been noise, though; because it seems like they're bringing in a replacement. I'm generally staying away from the situation which should make my leaguemates happy. Too many good receivers in this class to get bogged down with what I feel are a weak class or runners other than three of them.

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I gotta question LaFleur backing up his best players when the team has bigger needs. That said, the draft is over so....whatever, move on

Henry was a lot like Brandon Jacobs and other big backs in the beginning. I expect Dillon to do the same his rookie year. 4th and one and TD vulture. 

There are certain defenses that are stout but short n quick. Dillon could certainly get an increase in time those weeks and make Jones seem like he's losing his job as FF folks talk, but I wouldn't guess anything til year two.

 

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2 hours ago, Mr. Peterson said:

I’m seeing him ranked below guys like Vaughn even in standard formats.  In a non ppr league, how is he not considered a lock the first round?  
I know it’s completely different draft classes, but he went higher than Montgomery did last year and Montgomery was a top 3 pick.  Jones will not be on the Packers roster next year. 

The salary gap between top backs and the rest is unreal. Jones being a Packer in 2021 probably has to do with whether the Pack want to afford him and use that space more than anything. 

Big backs need to earn a reputation and then FF folks jump on them. It's not surprising he's not going that high in dynasty drafts. They're all too slow, can't cut, not good for ZBS, and can't catch....until they smash some people and blow all those knocks against them out of the water. Sooo many big backs were not loved as rookie draft picks, I bet it's more difficult to find some that were

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46 minutes ago, Bri said:

The salary gap between top backs and the rest is unreal. Jones being a Packer in 2021 probably has to do with whether the Pack want to afford him and use that space more than anything. 

Big backs need to earn a reputation and then FF folks jump on them. It's not surprising he's not going that high in dynasty drafts. They're all too slow, can't cut, not good for ZBS, and can't catch....until they smash some people and blow all those knocks against them out of the water. Sooo many big backs were not loved as rookie draft picks, I bet it's more difficult to find some that were

It's not like the fantasy community has necessarily been wrong on that front.  How many of these guys really work out, especially in the modern NFL?  When I googled 250lb RBs that became good stat producers almost all of them were from back when the NFL was a different game. 

Derrick Henry worked out but he was a top 5 FF pick and you had to endure 3 years of him figuring it out to finally get here.  Most people that drafted him probably sold him on the cheap long before his breakout.

Brandon Jacobs put up a few RB2 seasons.  Eddie Lacy had a couple nice years (when he was slimmer) on a much better offense.

He could certainly work out but there just aren't a lot of teams looking to build around a Jerome Bettis/Natrone Means type player these days.  I guess the Packers using a day 2 pick on him maybe means they are more receptive to it than most, but I'm not sure it's something they will really stick with.  And that's not considering that I just don't believe Dillon is that good of a player.  He was way overdrafted on day 2, most had him as a 4th round talent.

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Coach, if you need one yard I can get you three.  If you need 5 yards I can get you three.

- A J Dillon. 

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On 5/2/2020 at 9:46 AM, Mr. Peterson said:

I’m seeing him ranked below guys like Vaughn even in standard formats.  In a non ppr league, how is he not considered a lock the first round?  
I know it’s completely different draft classes, but he went higher than Montgomery did last year and Montgomery was a top 3 pick.  Jones will not be on the Packers roster next year

Way too premature to say that.  Jones might be looking for a Freeman type contract at $8M a year.  LeFleur played a Thunder/Lightning offense in TEN and he's likely looking for this to be v2 of that.  Jones is a way better runner than Dion Lewis ever was and Dillon comps very well to the Derrick Henry role.  The real loser here is Rodgers is every way - they are going to have about 6 TE's on the field on every play and run some high school BS offense like the Titans did.  Just hope Davante Adams get his but I'm bailing on GBP on all fronts.

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21 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

It's not like the fantasy community has necessarily been wrong on that front.  How many of these guys really work out, especially in the modern NFL?  When I googled 250lb RBs that became good stat producers almost all of them were from back when the NFL was a different game. 

Derrick Henry worked out but he was a top 5 FF pick and you had to endure 3 years of him figuring it out getting rid of LeFleur to finally get here.  Most people that drafted him probably sold him on the cheap long before his breakout.

Brandon Jacobs put up a few RB2 seasons.  Eddie Lacy had a couple nice years (when he was slimmer) on a much better offense.

He could certainly work out but there just aren't a lot of teams looking to build around a Jerome Bettis/Natrone Means type player these days.  I guess the Packers using a day 2 pick on him maybe means they are more receptive to it than most, but I'm not sure it's something they will really stick with.  And that's not considering that I just don't believe Dillon is that good of a player.  He was way overdrafted on day 2, most had him as a 4th round talent.

FTFY.  LeFleur is the destroyer of FF backs and maybe entire offenses.

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On 5/3/2020 at 10:25 AM, Hankmoody said:

FTFY.  LeFleur is the destroyer of FF backs and maybe entire offenses.

I've always wondered how much of a part he played in continuing to play Dion Lewis over Derrick Henry in 2018. That might be the single dumbest thing I've ever seen in the NFL (& that's saying something).

It wasn't exactly rocket science.

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5 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

I've always wondered how much of a part he played in continuing to play Dion Lewis over Derrick Henry in 2018. That might be the single dumbest thing I've ever seen in the NFL (& that's saying something).

It wasn't exactly rocket science.

That should have been the first topic in his job interview with the Packers.  No joke.

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