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Andy Dufresne

Two leagues, three top 10 picks each - what's the best sequence to go?

What's the best sequence of picks?  

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Posted (edited)

Two different Zealots IDP leagues. Both in "start over" mode. I know things will change depending on landing spots, but generically speaking which way would be the best to go with the first two picks?

 

League 1 NON-PPR - I'm in decent shape with the WR spot having Sutton, Chark, McLaren, Slayton, N'keal Harry, and Preston Williams. I have no startable RB's. So this is easily RB/RB right? In addition to the firsts, I also have the 2.4 and 2.9

Full roster - https://www61.myfantasyleague.com/2020/options?L=40227&O=07&F=0011

 

League 2 PPR - This one is the one I'm even more interested in opinions on. No position has much of anything so I can go any direction. I have the 1, 2, and 11 picks plus the top two picks of round two.

Full roster - https://www64.myfantasyleague.com/2020/options?L=32192&O=07&F=0011

Edited by Andy Dufresne

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Draft for the talents you have rated highest regardless of position.  Forcing positions is never a good idea in any draft.  Rate the players based on talent/opportunity regardless of position.  Take your highest rated guys when it's your turn.  You will be better off in the long run using this approach if you are good at player evaluation.  Forcing a particular position over who you think the better player gets you in trouble. 

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Posted (edited)

Thanks, but I'm not sure you understood the question.

But it is probably better answered post-draft anyway.

Edited by Andy Dufresne

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5 hours ago, Gally said:

Draft for the talents you have rated highest regardless of position.  Forcing positions is never a good idea in any draft.  Rate the players based on talent/opportunity regardless of position.  Take your highest rated guys when it's your turn.  You will be better off in the long run using this approach if you are good at player evaluation.  Forcing a particular position over who you think the better player gets you in trouble. 

I agree with Gally, draft the best player available.  Yes, you may need a RB, but if I have a WR ranked higher, I am picking the WR.  

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Posted (edited)

I guess I wasn't clear. If we're talking one pick in each round, then I agree you take BPA in each round. But I have three first rounders in the non-ppr league and four in the ppr league. So I'm trying to maximize the return. 

And since I posted this I got the 1.8 in the PPR league too.

1.1/1.4/1.10 in non-ppr and 1.1/1.2/1.8/1.11 in ppr.

So I can get multiple "best players" - especially in the ppr league.

So the question is something like, for example "Would you go Taylor/Swift, Taylor/Jeudy, or Jeudy/Lamb" particularly since there will be another good player to be had at the 10/11 spot.

Edited by Andy Dufresne

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13 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I guess I wasn't clear. If we're talking one pick in each round, then I agree you take BPA in each round. But I have three first rounders in the non-ppr league and four in the ppr league. So I'm trying to maximize the return. 

And since I posted this I got the 1.8 in the PPR league too.

1.1/1.4/1.10 in non-ppr and 1.1/1.2/1.8/1.11 in ppr.

So I can get multiple "best players" - especially in the ppr league.

So the question is something like, for example "Would you go Taylor/Swift, Taylor/Jeudy, or Jeudy/Lamb" particularly since there will be another good player to be had at the 10/11 spot.

I understand your question and dilemma but just because you have multiple 1st rounders doesn't change the recommendation.  Take the players you have rated highest regardless of position.  The key in rookie drafts is identifying the players that will hit.  It's hard enough to do that without worrying about a particular position.  It doesn't matter the position you take if you hit on the picks.  Your goal is to hit on the picks.  So if I have a WR rated as my highest player at the time of my pick I will take him even if I only have 2 RB's on my roster. 

 

That all being said, if you truly have two players ranked the exact same then I would take the position that I need most.....however, I never have two players rated the exact same. 

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14 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

So the question is something like, for example "Would you go Taylor/Swift, Taylor/Jeudy, or Jeudy/Lamb" particularly since there will be another good player to be had at the 10/11 spot.

Never go Taylor Swift....she is too high maintenance......hahahaa

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15 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I guess I wasn't clear. If we're talking one pick in each round, then I agree you take BPA in each round. But I have three first rounders in the non-ppr league and four in the ppr league. So I'm trying to maximize the return. 

And since I posted this I got the 1.8 in the PPR league too.

1.1/1.4/1.10 in non-ppr and 1.1/1.2/1.8/1.11 in ppr.

So I can get multiple "best players" - especially in the ppr league.

So the question is something like, for example "Would you go Taylor/Swift, Taylor/Jeudy, or Jeudy/Lamb" particularly since there will be another good player to be had at the 10/11 spot.

I do understand your question... and since I have been playing for over 30 years, I still take the best rated player, no matter what position.  I am not worried about my roster spots and needs when drafting rookies.  If two players are ranked very close, then I look at what I need, which might sway my pick.  

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Okay then, maybe I am asking people to reveal their rankings (wasn't my original intent) and people aren't eager to share that.

So then the question is as simple as who would you take at 1 & 4 in a non-ppr and the 1 & 2 in a ppr?

I think there's not much difference between Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, Lamb, and Jeudy in either case.

I think I've settled on RB/RB in non-ppr - unless the three RBs go in succession, then I'd take the WR in the best situation.

In PPR I think I'm going RB/WR because now that I have pick 8 I opened up a lot of options to take either RB or WR there. And there's several WRs that will be a value at 11.

Anyway, this is jumping the gun until we know landing spots.

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4 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Okay then, maybe I am asking people to reveal their rankings (wasn't my original intent) and people aren't eager to share that.

So then the question is as simple as who would you take at 1 & 4 in a non-ppr and the 1 & 2 in a ppr?

I think there's not much difference between Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, Lamb, and Jeudy in either case.

I think I've settled on RB/RB in non-ppr - unless the three RBs go in succession, then I'd take the WR in the best situation.

In PPR I think I'm going RB/WR because now that I have pick 8 I opened up a lot of options to take either RB or WR there. And there's several WRs that will be a value at 11.

Anyway, this is jumping the gun until we know landing spots.

This is still trying to force a position.  If you think Taylor, Swift, and Dobbins are ahead of Lamb/Jeudy then take those three if they are available and picks 1, 4, and 8.  If one of those RB's is taken then take Jeudy/Lamb if they are still on the board at those picks.  I don't understand the idea that there will be "several WR's that be a value at 11" as a way of changing your pick at 8 to a RB just because there is value at WR.   If the WR is ranked higher than the RB then take them at #8.  If not then take the RB.  If you have your players ranked it doesn't really matter the value.  You shouldn't be taking your 8th ranked player (say a WR for arguments sake) at 11 if your 3rd ranked player (say a RB) is still available. 

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Gally said:

You shouldn't be taking your 8th ranked player (say a WR for arguments sake) at 11 if your 3rd ranked player (say a RB) is still available. 

What are the chances that my third ranked player isn't also at the third ranked player for at least one of eleven other owners? 

I get what you're saying but I just don't see that scenario playing out.

Thanks for your input, and I get it. I'd now like the opinion of those that believe there might be a preferable way to go about this.

I do still allow room for the possibility I'm over thinking/thinking wrong about this.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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I don't want to sound condescending, but I think you may be getting enamored with the multiple picks and directions you could go.  If this is the strategy you've been employing in previous drafts (this is just my guess since you have early picks), maybe it's time to try a new tactic?  Throw positions out the window.  Best player available.  And that will change once we have landing spots, but you have to commit to best player available.  Going by position, you usually end up with two decent players that you will constantly have to flip a coin on deciding who to start.  Best player available, you most likely have a stud that you can set it and forget it.  Does it work this way every time...no.  But my experience has been it works out a lot more than it doesn't when you go best player available.

Side question (because I play in an IDP dynasty league) -- Why so many LB's and DB's?  Do you have to start a larger number than normal for those two positions?

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People keep saying "best player available". But arguments can be made for five guys in that category.

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On 3/19/2020 at 4:02 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

People keep saying "best player available". But arguments can be made for five guys in that category.

Which is the difficulty of evaluation.  You must figure out who you believe is the best player available.  Then choose who you think is the best player when it is your turn to pick.  Trying to force positions leads to not taking the best player available.  That is what most are trying to convey in this thread.  

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Gally said:

Which is the difficulty of evaluation.  You must figure out who you believe is the best player available.  Then choose who you think is the best player when it is your turn to pick.  Trying to force positions leads to not taking the best player available.  That is what most are trying to convey in this thread.  

Disregard the idea of the later picks then. 

I'm asking what other people think is the best thing to do with the #1 and #2 picks in PPR and the #1 and #4 in non-ppr. What is their opinion?

 

Arguments could be made to go (for example) Taylor/Swift, Taylor/Jeudy, Jeudy/Lamb. Give me an opinion.

Edited by Andy Dufresne

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My top 4 picks would be the following (without knowing landing spots):

 

1.  Taylor

2.  Swift

3. CEH

4. Lamb

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11 hours ago, Gally said:

My top 4 picks would be the following (without knowing landing spots):

 

1.  Taylor

2.  Swift

3. CEH

4. Lamb

For me:

1. Taylor

2. Swift

3. Jeudy

4. Dobbins

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