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JohnnyU

How will CV affect the NFL?

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Posted (edited)

NBA suspends games, NCAA playing basketball games without fans, is the NFL next?   Will the NFL draft be held without fans, then games suspended?  Is this an overreaction?

Edited to take out the statement about regular flu vs COVID-19 due to my lack of knowledge on what the effect of COVID-19 is right now.  Obviously it was a dumb statement on my part because of the current spread rate of COVID-19 and more importantly the fact that a lot of people who have it may not show symptoms, which makes it harder to contain.

 

Edited by JohnnyU

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

NBA suspends games, NCAA playing basketball games without fans, is the NFL next?   Will the NFL draft be held without fans, then games suspended?  Is this an overreaction?

Unless this is still raging in August, and I think if the heat and containment does not kill it they anticipate a vaccination in 6 months, it should only have the impact of no fans at the draft and likely no players. I think owners have a league meeting scheduled next week in Florida, they'll probably revert to using phones.

Not to be insensitive but for NFL/football fans the timing is about ideal with respect to not having meaningful interruptions.

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Prediction: NFL Draft will take place but in a conference room at the NFL office in NY

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12 minutes ago, Penguin said:

Prediction: NFL Draft will take place but in a conference room at the NFL office in NY

Or at some ESPN studio. 

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Don’t a lot more people die from the regular flu?

 

Yes but one of the major concerns is that we don’t have vaccination against this yet so while it’s not as deadly, we can do nothing to curb the spread of it other than quarantine. It will spread nationwide without strong measures taken and may do that even with those measures.

I do agree though that a lot of the “hysteria” stems from the alarm causes by things like the NBA suspension. What the general public isn’t getting about those types of acts is that there is a liability component. When there is a pandemic, you don’t want to be responsible for holding an event with 40,00 attendees in close quarters. This is a serious issue with serious measures needed. But no, we aren’t all going to die. Take it seriously, do the things you need to do to stay safe and try to get through the next two months while the gov tries to seize control of this thing

Edit: I do think the draft as an event is in jeopardy though. The season and training camp starts, probably not as much 

Edited by gabes1919
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9 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

There is a treatment for it... it shouldnt impact the NFL at all. This histeria is all media generated anyways, so I fully expect the NFL to overreact and perform the draft by Facetime

Treatment? Do share 

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Posted (edited)

I'm guessing that the draft as an event is majorly affected, as gabes1919 points out. It's in late April and I can't see us being out of the woods by then. I'm just hoping for everyone's health and safety. This is obviously very serious even with the liability component of major shutdowns and travel understood, noted, and banked in the memory bank. But it's still awfully serious, especially for the elderly or those with underlying health conditions. 

Edited by rockaction
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Posted (edited)

Holy crap people. This is a serious issue!  Very, very serious.  This is an uncontained global pandemic.  It is not media hype. 

The heat will not kill it, though it may be less prevalent outside of the winter due to behavior changes. 

A vaccine will not come in 6 months. 18 months at the earliest. 

Good lord. 

Social distancing is the only thing that has worked.  Read this, please. 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Highlight - confirmed cases is a trailing indicator.  Using hindsight, the Chinese had over 1500 cases in hubei at the time they had officially identified 100.  

 

Edited by kittenmittens
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Don’t a lot more people die from the regular flu?

 

NO!!!!!!! 

Right now this is 30 times as deadly as the regular flu on a rate basis, and we have a vaccine for the regular flu. That number is likely to come down to 10 times as deadly, but that is a HUGE number.  You're talking 2 to 3 million deaths in The US and hundreds of millions world wide if we do not stop the spread and most people get it. 

Death rates will be much higher if the health system is overwhelmed. 

Edited by kittenmittens
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Don’t a lot more people die from the regular flu?

I really can't believe this is still a talking point.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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We really don't know if the summer heat will slow the virus.  Look at Australia, it's summer there and it hasn't slowed it (Tom Hanks).  There are many experts who are saying we could have 60-100 million get it here.  That would mean we'd have a million die.  This isn't the regular flu.  I've seen so many say it's media hype creating hysteria or a hoax.  It's time to take it seriously.  

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It seems pretty likely that it'll interfere with offseason practices. That is bad news for rookies and teams with new coaches, and could lead to some sloppy early season football.

Most likely things will clear up enough by September so that they can play games, but there's a chance that they won't and some games will get cancelled or postponed. Or maybe just played in empty stadiums.

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4 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

There is a treatment for it... it shouldnt impact the NFL at all. This histeria is all media generated anyways, so I fully expect the NFL to overreact and perform the draft by Facetime

Wait, Wat?

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Of all people Dr. Dan, Don't you dog me

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5 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

There is a treatment for it.

In fairness to Dan, he did not say there is a cure.  He only said treatment.

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Teacher here. Woke up Sunday with a sore throat and cough, called Teladoc and got some prescriptions. Called out Monday. Tuesday had a worse cough and slight fever. Called out. Wednesday had a terrible cough, fever, called out, went to doctor. Being treated for pneumonia. No Covid19 test available. Being "treated" with antibiotics, steroids, and cough meds. Who knows if I have it, and if so, how many more do, too? I know I haven't left the country, or even the county, but many of my students travel. I'm in contact with hundreds of kids a day. I'm in SW Florida.

Don't be surprised if this impacts the NFL bigly. Meaning no season, or games played in empty stadiums. The CBA may be the least of their worries.

So much winning.

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17 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

This is very wildly inaccurate and I am hoping its schtick...

The flu is less than 1% but pretty close. 30 times more would make the mortality rate about 30%. 

Accurate estimations of the mortality rate put it at about 1%

The 3.4% from the WHO is calculated by the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed sick, but we know there are many who do not go to the hospital and therefore are not counted in the WHO's number. A much more accurate number is around 1%

The flu is actually closer to .1 percent in the US. That makes Covid-19 10 times more deadly, even at just one percent. 

In any case, the numbers vary dramatically by age. If you're a young, healthy person, it's not really as serious for you. Even if you happened to get it, you should recover pretty quickly. 

But if you have a loved one drawing Social Security, it's exactly as scary as the media makes it seem. 

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6 hours ago, ZWK said:

It seems pretty likely that it'll interfere with offseason practices. That is bad news for rookies and teams with new coaches, and could lead to some sloppy early season football.

Most likely things will clear up enough by September so that they can play games, but there's a chance that they won't and some games will get cancelled or postponed. Or maybe just played in empty stadiums.

I think it’s prudent to assume that this will be back next cold/flu season even if it “disappears when the weather gets warm.”  Considering the season falls in during that time I’d say it could really affect things later in the season, if not before. 

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8 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

 

Don’t a lot more people die from the regular flu?

 

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHDHDHDHDHDJD how are people still saying this?!?!?

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34 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

This is very wildly inaccurate and I am hoping its schtick...

The flu is less than 1% but pretty close. 30 times more would make the mortality rate about 30%. 

 

Your numbers are completely wrong.

 

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Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

There are two HIV drugs that have shown to be effective treatments. It basically destroys the ability of the virus to reproduce. Which makes sense why it would be an effective treatment. Production is being ramped up by pharmaceutical companies and clinical trials are being done. It is being used and labeled as "experimental treatment" today only because randomized clinical trials havent been done. But it works and is being offered as a treatment. 

If you are much older and you have some significant comorbidities, then you should be like kitten mittens up above. If you are not, and you live in the US, you are at a low risk of getting the virus, and even if you do you likely won't realize you have it; it may not be worse than anything else you've ever gotten. you will be fine. And if for some reason you "get it bad" remember you live in the United States, with the greatest Health Care system in the world. We are not China or Italy. And we are prepared. cripes...

1) we are not prepared, even a little bit  

2) our healthcare system sucks 

3) even if it doesn’t affect you personally we have a duty as a society to slow the transmission to those it will kill. 

Edited by Capella
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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Capella said:

Your numbers are completely wrong.

 

Didn't we go through this with Sars and Bird Flu?  I don't hear much about either lately?  I suppose this is a lot more serious.  What are the mortality numbers with CV with respect to age?  I would think the elderly and those with a compromised immunity are at more risk for death obviously.

Edited by JohnnyU

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8 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

There is a treatment for it... it shouldnt impact the NFL at all. This histeria is all media generated anyways, so I fully expect the NFL to overreact and perform the draft by Facetime

Wildly inaccurate statements like this are exactly what concern me. Hard to believe people are still this ignorant of the actual facts.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Didn't we go through this with Sars and Bird Flu?  I don't hear much about either lately?  I suppose this is a lot more serious.  What are the mortality numbers with CV with respect to age?  I would think the elderly are at more risk for death obviously.

No we didn’t go through something quite like this with Sars or Bird. Neither was able to be transmitted this easily. 
 

Some numbers put mortality rate for the elderly at 15.5%. Startlingly high numbers. People are dying in home at Italy and there’s nowhere to take them due to everything being overwhelmed. Have to get it contained. 

Edited by Capella
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3 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

Wildly inaccurate statements like this are exactly what concern me. Hard to believe people are still this ignorant of the actual facts.

I just can’t believe people are still peddling that crap. Probably why it’s going to get bad here. 

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1 minute ago, Capella said:

I just can’t believe people are still peddling that crap. Probably why it’s going to get bad here. 

If someone gets it and gets better, are they more immune?  Will the body develop an immunity as more people get it?  I know that may sound silly and I'm not an expert in these matters, just asking.

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5 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

If someone gets it and gets better, are they more immune?  Will the body develop an immunity as more people get it?  I know that may sound silly and I'm not an expert in these matters, just asking.

Ask away, I am happy to share what I know. There is a theory going around that you will not catch it twice but as far as I know, no scientist has confirmed that. 

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Posted (edited)

I know we've done a little prep but not much. I'm worried that people are stocking up on water and I have very little. In the FFA thread, somebody mentioned the a very new development -- the news was reporting the virus being airborne. Is this so? If so, this radically alters my stance on pallets of water. 

Edited by rockaction

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7 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I really can't believe this is still a talking point.

There will literally be people going to their grave believing it.

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

Smh..... 

No. It is spread by droplets. Coughing, sneezing, etc.

The histeria is out in full force. Next will be it has mutated and is more deadly than ebola...  

That was my reaction on pure logic alone, but this is certainly new. We haven't faced many pandemics -- what comes to mind is pox back around 1919-1920 and polio in the 1950s.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

No. They are not. I was just briefed on the covid numbers yesterday. Turn off your TV

Yea I’m sure you were. You said the flu kills 1% (“or close”). So either you’re wrong or you don’t understand decimals. Hopefully you weren’t briefed on anything Important. 

Edited by Capella
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Way too early to say.  We don't actually know if Covid-19 will even be a significant thing in the fall or not.  

If things in September are like they are now, my guess is that you end up with games played in empty stadiums.  The NFL could probably live with that since TV revenues are (I think) so much of a bigger deal than gate receipts.  But honestly who knows.  In coronavirus terms, the NFL season is like 14 years away.

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No idea....wonder if it can spread through perspiration and contact? If so, could the league try to mandate some weekly pre-game testing or something if this is still a thing during training camp? Would it be crazy to go down that road? Be a battle with the NFLPA at the very least.

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Dr Dan was briefed, ha ha ha.  Yeah briefed by whom, Trump?  Saying the flu kills 1% is the same thing Trump was saying and is not even remotely true.  It's just another attempt to minimize the pandemic.  If we didn't have our president dragging his feet and spreading falsehoods like "the flu is just as deadly" "it's a hoax" "we're at 15 positives and we'll be back to zero very shortly" then maybe we could have contained it early.  Instead we have his followers or rabid Fox news watchers spouting the same nonsense.

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44 minutes ago, Jacksonke1 said:

No idea....wonder if it can spread through perspiration and contact? If so, could the league try to mandate some weekly pre-game testing or something if this is still a thing during training camp? Would it be crazy to go down that road? Be a battle with the NFLPA at the very least.

Here’s what is really going on right now https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.html

its not so much stopping a deadly outbreak as slowing down the infection rate so the people who will need to be hospitalized have enough room to be taken care of. By the time the nfl starts the panic should be over, though anything is possible.

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10 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

 

Don’t a lot more people die from the regular flu?

 

You should have left this part out.

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1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Way too early to say.  We don't actually know if Covid-19 will even be a significant thing in the fall or not.  

If things in September are like they are now, my guess is that you end up with games played in empty stadiums.  The NFL could probably live with that since TV revenues are (I think) so much of a bigger deal than gate receipts.  But honestly who knows.  In coronavirus terms, the NFL season is like 14 years away.

Television revenue drives the league - attendance money is a small pittance. 

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

You should have left this part out.

I don't know much about CV, but I do remember the panic over SARS, Bird Flu, and others, so how is this worse?   Is it killing a lot more people?  I read 126k world wide have contacted the virus, so that's serious, but panic?

Edited by JohnnyU

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All that said, the Bills actually have a pretty promising team put together and our path to a division title is more open than it's been in 20 years, so I fully anticipate the season to be cancelled.

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

I don't know much about CV, but I do remember the panic over SARS, Bird Flu, and others, so how is this worse?  

If only there was some means to research these things.

You're making this a political thread by throwing out FOX News talking points. I'm sure you knew this though.

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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

If only there was some means to research these things.

You're making this a political thread by throwing out FOX News talking points. I'm sure you knew this though.

Actually I'm not.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I don't know much about CV, but I do remember the panic over SARS, Bird Flu, and others, so how is this worse?   Is it killing a lot more people?  I read 126k world wide have contacted the virus, so that's serious, but panic?

The problem is lack of testing.  We've only tested about 7-10k in this country.  We had a huge delay in starting of testing due to incompetence and now don't have enough tests.  A lot more people have it than we know which means people are spreading it because they haven't been quarantined.  If you want to look what could happen look up the Spanish flu.  10k a day are being tested in South Korea which is about the total we've tested overall.

Edited by elshagon

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

SARS killed 10%

MERS killed 34%

COVID is over estimated at 3.4, but likely closer to 1%

 

But everyone can keep panicking...

Beyond useless comparison. Neither of thsoe spread easily. This one does. 

Sars topped out at 8500 cases. Mers at 2500. COVID is at hundreds of thousands and is just getting started.

All of the previous pandemics in our lifetime had either a high infection rate and low death rate or a high death rate but low infection rate. 

This is the first in recent history with a high infection rate and a relatively high death rate. Then there is the very high hospitalization rate to boot, that has already completely overwhelmed one first world country. 

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

No. They are not. I was just briefed on the covid numbers yesterday. Turn off your TV

I don't think folks are questioning your covid numbers (mortality around 1% if we were to count EVERYONE who actually would test positive).  I think people are questioning your statement of the mortality rate of the regular flu being "close to 1%".  Where are you getting that from?  It's "close to .1%". 

The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S.

seasonal flu, which typically kills 0.1 percent of patients.

18,000 US related deaths in US this season, 32M cases.  Death rate calculated here, with 2019-2020 numbers actually .056%.  If that's the case, CV is ~18x as deadly. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

This is very wildly inaccurate and I am hoping its schtick...

The flu is less than 1% but pretty close. 30 times more would make the mortality rate about 30%. 

Accurate estimations of the mortality rate put it at about 1%

The 3.4% from the WHO is calculated by the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed sick, but we know there are many who do not go to the hospital and therefore are not counted in the WHO's number. A much more accurate number is around 1%

Are you kidding me?!?!!?!!!?  You're the one who is being wildly inaccurate. The death rate of the flu is around .1%.  Check the CDC source below.  That is not "pretty close" - that is an order of magnitude difference.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

The death rate of COVID19 is currently around 3.5% - look at the source from WHO.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Like I said that likely will come down because of cases that were mild and not identified.

My math above is correct.  You are wrong and without any source.

 

MATH, PEOPLE!!  GOOD LORD!  

The way people can't take this seriously, it's going to be horrible.

There is a difference between PANIC and being smart and proactive.  

Morons who do not take this seriously are going to oversubscribe the health care system when reality proves them wrong. 

WE ARE NOT DIFFERENT THAN ITALY.  The example is right there in front of you, yet still will not learn.

 

I am amazed how bad people are at stats.  Imagine if the death rate of the flu was 1%.  We would have hundreds of thousands of deaths from that every year in the US alone.  My god...

 

Edited by kittenmittens
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10 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

This histeria is all media generated anyways, so I fully expect the NFL to overreact and perform the draft by Facetime

 

2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

The histeria is out in full force. Next will be it has mutated and is more deadly than ebola...  

 

I don't know if I'm more upset at your blatantly false statements, or the fact that you keep misspelling "hysteria".  As a doctor, you should know the root of this word.
Which makes me wonder if you're really a doctor at all.

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18 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I don't know if I'm more upset at your blatantly false statements, or the fact that you keep misspelling "hysteria".  As a doctor, you should know the root of this word.
Which makes me wonder if you're really a doctor at all.

Perhaps the good doctor is very politically correct and standing hysteria on its gendered head? 

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Likely impacts the draft and possibly into mini-camps but it sure seems tough to predict right now. 38+ states with a case in the US, maybe more as I type? It's seems reasonable to expect overwhelmed healthcare systems/hospitals soon enough but the NFL regular season being late summer and fall/winter makes it less likely to see any impact. 

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Love being briefed on a pandemic while not understanding 5th grade math. 

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