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JohnnyU

How will CV affect the NFL?

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18 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

Likely impacts the draft and possibly into mini-camps but it sure seems tough to predict right now. 38+ states with a case in the US, maybe more as I type? It's seems reasonable to expect overwhelmed healthcare systems/hospitals soon enough but the NFL regular season being late summer and fall/winter makes it less likely to see any impact. 

Agree hard to see how this goes by time late July comes around.

With second Utah Jazz player testing positive I got to assume the NCAA has to be thinking of suspending the tournament because we are seeing player to player transmission. From what I read the other day say someone who test positive simply sweats on a basketball and you touch it you can catch the virus. Seems like all contact sports need to be halted until this is under control.

As I was typing this a friend of mine just texted me to tell me he was going to TPC golf tournament in Jacksonville tomorrow and even golf just banned spectators.

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8 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Agree hard to see how this goes by time late July comes around.

With second Utah Jazz player testing positive I got to assume the NCAA has to be thinking of suspending the tournament because we are seeing player to player transmission. From what I read the other day say someone who test positive simply sweats on a basketball and you touch it you can catch the virus. Seems like all contact sports need to be halted until this is under control.

As I was typing this a friend of mine just texted me to tell me he was going to TPC golf tournament in Jacksonville tomorrow and even golf just banned spectators.

That bolded part is nuts. Why would you even consider getting on a plane right now unless it was completely necessary? 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

 

While I made an error with a decimal point, the fact remains that the mortality rate is significantly lower than worse diseases that we have done just fine without a panic and stocking up on toilet paper. 

I can tell you are quite worked up over this, and there is nothing I can say to make you feel more at ease about this situation. I hope you get through this okay. 


 

Nothing personal at all here Dr. Dan.  Your decimal point error is a giant error in this type of math, but it's just an error and no worries.

 

I am worked up about it, but that is because this is a serious, serious issue that requires immediate action.  Read the Medium article, please.  The USA most likely has up to 15 times as many infections as we have identified, based on the Chinese data.  Those unidentified are spreading it now. Same thing that happened in other countries.  Spread didn't stop until they took lockdown containment measures.

take it seriously, please.  DO NOT panic, but this is a serious issue.

Hording toilet paper is dumb, but isolating is what we need to do.

 

If we don't take this seriously, it likely does impact the NFL.  Everyone has to take personal responsibility and take the right measures.

Edited by kittenmittens

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20 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

That bolded part is nuts. Why would you even consider getting on a plane right now unless it was completely necessary? 

It's a private plane

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Not to be insensitive but this really potentially puts a damper on next week.

Adam Schefter

@AdamSchefter

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4m

If NFL teams in fact shut down their training facilities, as many are now discussing, then it would be challenging at best to start the new league year next week, when buildings are closed and more pressing issues face their communities and this country.

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

 

While I made an error with a decimal point, the fact remains that the mortality rate is significantly lower than worse diseases that we have done just fine without a panic and stocking up on toilet paper. 

I can tell you are quite worked up over this, and there is nothing I can say to make you feel more at ease about this situation. I hope you get through this okay. 


 

Just curious, how many people need to die for it to become important to you? Let's say it's at 3%, and because of the lack of testing, taking it seriously, misinformation, etc it spreads to "only" 1 million people and 30,000 die. That's not enough to matter? Should we panic and buy all the toilet paper (serious, wtf people), of course not. Should we take sensible precautions? Heck yeah. Sports is a luxury and society can do without for a month or two. I just hope the employees that work there are taken care of by the billionaire owners and still get paid while not working so they can live.

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10 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

NO!!!!!!! 

Right now this is 30 times as deadly as the regular flu on a rate basis, and we have a vaccine for the regular flu. That number is likely to come down to 10 times as deadly, but that is a HUGE number.  You're talking 2 to 3 million deaths in The US and hundreds of millions world wide if we do not stop the spread and most people get it. 

Death rates will be much higher if the health system is overwhelmed. 

Where do you get your panic info from?

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1 minute ago, jasvic said:

Just curious, how many people need to die for it to become important to you? Let's say it's at 3%, and because of the lack of testing, taking it seriously, misinformation, etc it spreads to "only" 1 million people and 30,000 die. That's not enough to matter? Should we panic and buy all the toilet paper (serious, wtf people), of course not. Should we take sensible precautions? Heck yeah. Sports is a luxury and society can do without for a month or two. I just hope the employees that work there are taken care of by the billionaire owners and still get paid while not working so they can live.

Then why aren't we ALL working from home etc by now? My company has not addresses it at all

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3 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Then why aren't we ALL working from home etc by now? My company has not addresses it at all

It should have, frankly. And this doesn't come from a political perspective about anything, but rather, a common sense one about commerce. 

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7 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Then why aren't we ALL working from home etc by now? My company has not addresses it at all

Great question that you should be asking them. My company is addressing it, I'm going to start working from home on Monday. I'm very fortunate that I'm able to do so, not everyone is.

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

 

While I made an error with a decimal point, the fact remains that the mortality rate is significantly lower than worse diseases that we have done just fine without a panic and stocking up on toilet paper. 

I can tell you are quite worked up over this, and there is nothing I can say to make you feel more at ease about this situation. I hope you get through this okay. 


 

This is much, much more contagious. Surely you have heard about the shortage crisis on hospital beds and ventilators and such? Yeah MERS had a 34.4% mortality rate but less than 3000 people got infected. SARS killed 10% but only 8000 got infected. There are hundreds of thousands of people infected with COVID19 right now and probably more. The official count is up to 129,771 but we all know testing is inadequate and undercounted. Yes this means the 3.6% mortality rate is probably a little high. But even if it goes down to 1.5% that is still 10-30 times more deadly than the flu, if you use the ranges I've seen for flu, 0.05-0.14%. 

Edited by barackdhouse
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3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

It should have, frankly. And this doesn't come from a political perspective about anything, but rather, a common sense one about commerce. 

And it's just starting. Company's all over the US are now starting to send people home now and this will continually grow over next few days. Quicken loans for example just sent all 10,000 employee's home to work.

This is real. Time for some people to pull their head out of the sand.

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Of course, I am travelling right now (in Oregon where the Gov declared a state of emergency a few days ago). I am closing my mom's estate over these last few months and this is the last week. Her house sale closes this Sunday and I need to clean the place out. Between coughing UHaul reps, the DMV being out of soap and sanitizer the other day, friends that are self-isolating and can't host me, along with all this madness I am now beginning to wonder if I will be stuck in this motel room if I can't get this deal done fast enough. The 300 mile drive on I-5 was lighter than I have ever seen. I have done that drive 11 times since my mom passed, and I've done it probably 500 times in my life, but I made record time yesterday and was amazed at how few cars were on the road. Except for semis, they were out in force like usual.

Dang it, I just want to see where TB is going so these FA dominoes can fall. I have tiers to update, damn it.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Then why aren't we ALL working from home etc by now? My company has not addresses it at all

Because your company is led by stupid laggards who haven't figured this out yet.

Frankly speaking.

In three days you will be working from home if your job is conducive to it.

Edited by kittenmittens

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3 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Of course, I am travelling right now (in Oregon where the Gov declared a state of emergency a few days ago). I am closing my mom's estate over these last few months and this is the last week. Her house sale closes this Sunday and I need to clean the place out. Between coughing UHaul reps, the DMV being out of soap and sanitizer the other day, friends that are self-isolating and can't host me, along with all this madness I am now beginning to wonder if I will be stuck in this motel room if I can't get this deal done fast enough. The 300 mile drive on I-5 was lighter than I have ever seen. I have done that drive 11 times since my mom passed, and I've done it probably 500 times in my life, but I made record time yesterday and was amazed at how few cars were on the road. Except for semis, they were out in force like usual.

Dang it, I just want to see where TB is going so these FA dominoes can fall. I have tiers to update, damn it.

Nice post. Sorry about the loss of your Mom. I-5 reminds me of an MxPx song. They were cloying, but I remember the tune. 

I don't think that there will be any major football stuff going on over the next few days, even with the tampering. It seems everything has rightfully taken a backseat to pandemic preparation. 

 

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12 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

NO!!!!!!! 

Right now this is 30 times as deadly as the regular flu on a rate basis, and we have a vaccine for the regular flu. That number is likely to come down to 10 times as deadly, but that is a HUGE number.  You're talking 2 to 3 million deaths in The US and hundreds of millions world wide if we do not stop the spread and most people get it. 

Death rates will be much higher if the health system is overwhelmed. 

Thank you.  Jesus, where do people get their “facts” from?  Oh.  Right.

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3 hours ago, tangfoot said:

 

 

I don't know if I'm more upset at your blatantly false statements, or the fact that you keep misspelling "hysteria".  As a doctor, you should know the root of this word.
Which makes me wonder if you're really a doctor at all.

My brother is also a doctor and hysteria is a word he'd use as well.  It's the flu, wash your hands.  If you're sick stay home.  If you're immunocompromised, very young, or very old then stay out of large gatherings.  Common sense precautions.

 

As for the NFL with cell phones that can record video better than cameras from 20 years ago and FaceTime for one on one (or group) chats with players, coaches, and scouts - I don't see it effecting anything; even if each team has their personnel work from home until the end of April.

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

Not to be insensitive but this really potentially puts a damper on next week.

Adam Schefter

@AdamSchefter

·

4m

If NFL teams in fact shut down their training facilities, as many are now discussing, then it would be challenging at best to start the new league year next week, when buildings are closed and more pressing issues face their communities and this country.

Hand't really thought of the FA impact. Lots of visits and live workouts. Have to assume that will be limited even if they are all la-di-#######-da on those private jets. ;)

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

This is a very serious issue for the immunocompromised and those with poor pulmonary abilities. The rest of us are going to be fine. The elderly should isolate if in areas the disease is spreading. 

A great time for cheap flights and vacations, that's for sure

Stop saying this crap.  It's complete garbage.  You're about to look like a massive fool.  Get your head out of the sand.

If you're a real doctor, you should be extremely concerned about the lack of medical supplies (respirators) and drugs that are (currently not being) made in China because of the lockdown.  If they go back to the factory and make some, they aren't leaving China.

You should also be extremely concerned about having to decide who gets to use the respirator and live and who doesn't.

Look at Italy.  

Edited by kittenmittens
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2 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Then why aren't we ALL working from home etc by now? My company has not addresses it at all

Really?

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Just now, Flying Elvis said:

Hand't really thought of the FA impact. Lots of visits and live workouts. Have to assume that will be limited even if they are all la-di-#######-da on those private jets. ;)

Well since that tweet it sounds more and more like league is going to continue on.

From what I last read they feel like since everything can be done remotely no need to delay the league year other then potentially bad optics. Of course the league is media savvy and we are about to have a ton of people stuck at home with no other sports to watch so I'm sure they want to keep all the eyeballs on them if they can. They got a sports monopoly right now because it sounds like the NCAA tournament is either going to get suspended or flat cancelled. 

And fwiw on my friend with the jet I got to give him credit for being way ahead of the curve on this and what is unusual is his political leanings and were he gets his news lets just say that's not typical. But last week he told he thought he thought this would end up potentially being the biggest story of our lives and he'd been mulling decision to go to that tournament since last week. I guess that kind of foresight is why he's got a private jet and I fly coach.

 

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

 

Should I run out and buy a generator? 

Yeah, you're not trolling.

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I'd have to think there's no reason the NFL can't carry on as scheduled. I'm sure they want some kind of workouts but it seems highly unlikely that's a deal breaker for most FA targets. Only the players coming off injury would really be impacted and potentially delayed. But even that is mitigated by a much safer, private jet flight. 

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Official Source on my 1% death rate estimate.

Quote

The WHO’s estimated mortality rate for COVID-19 started off at 2%, Fauci said. If you count all the estimated cases of people who may have it but haven’t been diagnosed yet, the mortality rate is probably closer to 1%, he said, “which means it’s 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.”   

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/top-federal-health-official-says-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-get-worse-in-the-us.html

 

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5 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

I believe Italy just went up to a 6.7% mortality rate.

They got an older population but I believe the increase we are seeing is due to hospital overcrowding which based on one person's estimate I read last week would occur in the US around May 6th, give or take a week or two.

But even 1% with the Congressional doctor estimating 75-150 million Americans will get that's a whole lot of death for such nonchalant attitudes.

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some of the stuff you guys are saying in here are just plain wrong. You guys should do some research before you post stupid comments about a deadly virus.

Facts: CV spreads a lot faster and easier than the flu for two main reasons. One, the incubation period is a lot longer. Some people are infected, they don't even know it. Two, it survives in the open a lot longer than the normal influenca (flu) which means it stays on door nobs and other surfaces a lot longer. Secondly, this virus has pretty much killed no one under the age of 50. The few deaths under 50 were people who already had respiratory issues, heavy smokers, and weaker immune system. Most people infected didn't even require medical assistance. Now, with that said, for people over 60 years old, it kills a lot more than the flu. This thing is more contagious than the flu and a lot more lethal for people at risk (older people or people with immuno-deficiencies). So yeah, it is a strain of the flu, it's just a lot more potent, we don't know the long term effects yet obviously, and no there is no vaccine for this yet. 

Fun fact, most different strains of flu and a fair amount of common cold ARE coronaviruses. They fall in the same category. the word Coronavirus has been around for a long time.

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40 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

For the people who says its "just a flu" - well sure, if the flu were 10x more lethal than it is. And we're not getting a vaccine any time soon.

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5 minutes ago, Amused to Death said:

For the people who says its "just a flu" - well sure, if the flu were 10x more lethal than it is. And we're not getting a vaccine any time soon.

10x more leathal to those who already are at risk of dying from the flu.  The elderly and immunocomprimised.

I don't mean to seem callous, but sports stars are at their peak health.  This isn't an issue for a 21-40 year old in their physical prime.  Hell the vast majority of people on this board can catch it and be fine in a week.

All of the issues with hospitals being out of stock of essential supplies comes from this type of panic, where people see 10x worse than a regular flu and go out to their doctor to get checked for something they don't need to be checked out for, while grandma who really needs the doctor's attention, can't get an appointment.

 

For anyone who's like myself, an adult in relatively good health, treat it like any other flu.  Hot tea, over the counter medicine, and bed rest.  Leave the masks to the doctors.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

10x more leathal to those who already are at risk of dying from the flu.  The elderly and immunocomprimised.

I don't mean to seem callous, but sports stars are at their peak health.  This isn't an issue for a 21-40 year old in their physical prime.  Hell the vast majority of people on this board can catch it and be fine in a week.

All of the issues with hospitals being out of stock of essential supplies comes from this type of panic, where people see 10x worse than a regular flu and go out to their doctor to get checked for something they don't need to be checked out for, while grandma who really needs the doctor's attention, can't get an appointment.

 

For anyone who's like myself, an adult in relatively good health, treat it like any other flu.  Hot tea, over the counter medicine, and bed rest.  Leave the masks to the doctors.

Certainly. And its our responsibility to help keep the spread under control. Large crowds of people spread the virus. I may be fine. But then I spread it to potentially 1000s of people. Some of them might die. According the to CDC, 10x more than the flu will die.

Even athletes in peak physical condition will spread the virus.

Edited by Amused to Death

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For the guys that are using math, it's not math for the simple reason that you can't put everyone in the same bucket. For people over 60, the mortality is a lot higher and it increases the older the patient gets while the under 30 is at almost zero percent. You don't smoke a lot, you don't have respiratory issues, you are in good health overall and you are under 30-35 years old, this thing is not deadly. You are an elder with already some immune system issues, you are in a lot of trouble. Math doesn't work if you put every group of age in the same equation.

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For those who think people are exaggerating how bad this could get, please read this article:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

As things ramp up in the USA, my guess is in a couple of weeks, most of the USA will be shut down, and this will impact the NFL's offseason activities and probably delay the start of the season.

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if you think this hasn't already impacted a lot of things, check your 401k....you'll go for a drink after....

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6 minutes ago, Amused to Death said:

Certainly. And its our responsibility to help keep the spread under control. Large crowds of people spread the virus. I may be fine. But then I spread it to potentially 1000s of people. Some of them might die. According the to CDC, 10x more than the flu will die.

Even athletes in peak physical condition will spread the virus.

I'm not suggesting that as a society we don't take preventative measures.  Just that we stop overreacting and take some personal responsibility for our own actions.  If you know you're in an at risk group you shouldn't be going to a sports game and if you know you aren't at risk you shouldn't be wasting the resources of our doctors.

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I just watched a Connecticut state brief by the Governor.  The medical guy said an estimate of 70% of the population would get CV at some point.  There are 7.8 billion people in the world.  That means roughly 5.46 billion people would be infected at some point.  If the mortality rate is 1%, that comes out to 54.6 million people  That number is staggering.  Is the medical professional way off in his 70% estimate?

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1 minute ago, wgoldsph said:

I'm not suggesting that as a society we don't take preventative measures.  Just that we stop overreacting and take some personal responsibility for our own actions.  If you know you're in an at risk group you shouldn't be going to a sports game and if you know you aren't at risk you shouldn't be wasting the resources of our doctors.

I'm (probably) not at risk. I go to a football game and maybe 10 days later get some sniffles. But during those 10 days where I show no symptoms, I go visit my 73 year dad. This could kill him. And its highly contagious.

Hell, I could spread it to 100's of people in their 70s+ and never know it. And they spread it 100s without knowing it. And so it goes.

All the while, I'm fine.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Really?

:shrug:Maybe he works Dr. Dan or JohnnyU

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35 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

10x more leathal to those who already are at risk of dying from the flu.  The elderly and immunocomprimised.

I don't mean to seem callous, but sports stars are at their peak health.  This isn't an issue for a 21-40 year old in their physical prime.  Hell the vast majority of people on this board can catch it and be fine in a week.

All of the issues with hospitals being out of stock of essential supplies comes from this type of panic, where people see 10x worse than a regular flu and go out to their doctor to get checked for something they don't need to be checked out for, while grandma who really needs the doctor's attention, can't get an appointment.

 

For anyone who's like myself, an adult in relatively good health, treat it like any other flu.  Hot tea, over the counter medicine, and bed rest.  Leave the masks to the doctors.

That's not how this works.  That's not how any of this works.

If a young healthy person gets this they still need to be tested because they need to know if they need to be quarantined.  Lest that young healthy person go out into the world and spread the disease to others who aren't healthy, and still others that are who then themselves spread it to more, etc.

It's logarithmic.  One person being tested and properly quarantined could prevent thousands of infection and dozens of deaths down the line.

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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

That's not how this works.  That's not how any of this works.

If a young healthy person gets this they still need to be tested because they need to know if they need to be quarantined.  Lest that young healthy person go out into the world and spread the disease to others who aren't healthy, and still others that are who then themselves spread it to more, etc.

It's logarithmic.  One person being tested and properly quarantined could prevent thousands of infection and dozens of deaths down the line.

So are you advocating that 100% of people should be tested......not 100% of sick people......100% of people?

 

I agree that the difficult issue with this virus is the ability to transmit it before you have any symptoms.  This is the real crux of the problem.  Once you have symptoms, if people do the right thing and self quarantine it helps stop the spread but in some cases that may be too late because you may have already transmitted it.  It's just not realistic to test 100% of all people.  The reality is that only people with symptoms will be in the pool for being tested so that is the big issue.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

That's not how this works.  That's not how any of this works.

If a young healthy person gets this they still need to be tested because they need to know if they need to be quarantined.  Lest that young healthy person go out into the world and spread the disease to others who aren't healthy, and still others that are who then themselves spread it to more, etc.

It's logarithmic.  One person being tested and properly quarantined could prevent thousands of infection and dozens of deaths down the line.

One of the problems that may arise - I have heard/read some saying to NOT go to the hospital, and stay home instead.  Self-quarantining helps of course, but if people aren't being diagnosed, the numbers will be way off.

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3 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

One of the problems that may arise - I have heard/read some saying to NOT go to the hospital, and stay home instead.  Self-quarantining helps of course, but if people aren't being diagnosed, the numbers will be way off.

I would think the important thing is to stop the spread.  The numbers are just information and either diminish or hype the hysteria.  Knowing the number of cases doesn't help create a vaccine or stop the spread.  It's just info for categorizing the potency and the overall affect.  I would be much happier if the spread stops and the numbers are off over spreading the virus and having accurate numbers (this aspect of numbers). 

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51 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

That's not how this works.  That's not how any of this works.

If a young healthy person gets this they still need to be tested because they need to know if they need to be quarantined.  Lest that young healthy person go out into the world and spread the disease to others who aren't healthy, and still others that are who then themselves spread it to more, etc.

It's logarithmic.  One person being tested and properly quarantined could prevent thousands of infection and dozens of deaths down the line.

So all healthy young people should go get tested just on the off chance?  Or does bed rest have a different meaning to you than it does to me?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

That's not how this works.  That's not how any of this works.

If a young healthy person gets this they still need to be tested because they need to know if they need to be quarantined.  Lest that young healthy person go out into the world and spread the disease to others who aren't healthy, and still others that are who then themselves spread it to more, etc.

It's logarithmic.  One person being tested and properly quarantined could prevent thousands of infection and dozens of deaths down the line.

Too late, young healthy people everywhere have it (or have had it already) and aren't being tested.

Edited by matuski

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, DallasDMac said:

Hard to believe people are still this ignorant of the actual facts.

unfortunately, no it's not.  but i know what you mean.

crazy stupid country.  and people are busy.

sad.  of course most comedy is born of suffering and pain, so...., there's that.

Edited by song
betterment

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, song said:

unfortunately, no it's not.  but i know what you mean.

crazy stupid country.  and people are busy.

sad.  of course most comedy is born of suffering and pain, so...., there's that.

oh, and as to the question of the OP,  just a guess but even if the virus dies down in summer, it's likely to come back with a fury in the fall, so significant disruption.

maybe spectatorless, maybe suspended season.

it would be good for fantasy football commissioners to anticipate and plan for this now. i know that's trivial in the grand scheme of things.

 

Edited by song
betterment
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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Amused to Death said:

I'm (probably) not at risk. I go to a football game and maybe 10 days later get some sniffles. But during those 10 days where I show no symptoms, I go visit my 73 year dad. This could kill him. And its highly contagious.

Hell, I could spread it to 100's of people in their 70s+ and never know it. And they spread it 100s without knowing it. And so it goes.

All the while, I'm fine.

So, in FBG terms, "no big deal cause it doesn't affect planet you. Tell your dad he's over-reacting."

Edited by DallasDMac
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