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JohnnyU

How will CV affect the NFL?

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6 hours ago, Capella said:

Seems like early results have been pretty positive. More confident than ever we’ll get a full season. 

How do you think NFL games will get "made up". It's completely different than baseball teams scheduling a double header imo. Apples and oranges comparison.

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4 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

How do you think NFL games will get "made up". It's completely different than baseball teams scheduling a double header imo. Apples and oranges comparison.

Assuming they can't just postpone to later in the week, I'd guess the games wouldn't be made up.

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6 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Assuming they can't just postpone to later in the week, I'd guess the games wouldn't be made up.

Exactly. And how many MLB games have been postponed thus far? "Pretty positive" might mean different things to different people.

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27 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

How do you think NFL games will get "made up". It's completely different than baseball teams scheduling a double header imo. Apples and oranges comparison.

Oh I have no idea. I think they left division opponents with the same bye so they could make up those? I dunno. Not saying they will all play 16 but there will be a super bowl. 

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26 minutes ago, Capella said:

Oh I have no idea. I think they left division opponents with the same bye so they could make up those? I dunno. Not saying they will all play 16 but there will be a super bowl. 

It'll look like the 1982 (?) strike season, which was 9 games or something like that. The weeks that were lost were just lost, with no attempts to make up for the imbalances created re who played who during the lost weeks. 

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Quote

Chiefs finalized plans for a reduced capacity of approximately 22 percent in Week 1.

In doing so, Kansas City becomes the first organization to claim it will have fans in attendance for kick-off on Thursday, September 10. The team will sell up to 16,000 single-game tickets with the approval of Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas, City of Kansas City Health Director Dr. Rex Archer, and City of Kansas City EMS Medical Director Dr. Erica Carney. The league's protocols have held strong during the first portion of training camp, but second waves of the virus in college campuses and international cities emphasize what could be in store for teams if safety precautions aren't followed. It's clearly an unwise decision to host a stadium at any capacity at this time.

SOURCE: Kansas City Chiefs on Twitter

Aug 17, 2020, 5:13 PM ET

 

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I haven't paid close enough attention, but has the league indicated what they will do if people within an organization start testing positive? By comparison, some CFB leagues just bailed entirely. MLB cancelled / postponed / rescheduled series based on positive tests. I know the NFL made a COVID list and modified some roster processes for teams to have some additional flexibility for players . . . but have they given any indication if they will play anyway even if people test positive? Will they differentiate what they do for positive tests vs. people showing actual symptoms? Not playing a game in a given week sets up lots of rescheduling issues (if they can even reschedule a game). Will the league opt to play if there are positive cases in a locker room? In the front office? Among support staff? It's one thing to say there are testing protocols in place . . . but for now it hasn't really been an issue. They cancelled all the preseason games, so they never had to make any tough decisions on playing vs. not playing.

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7 minutes ago, Faust said:

I do think problems with that particular lab are a more logical explanation than a bunch of people being positive for COVID all of the sudden. 

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So could there be a scenario where different teams play a different number of games? That would be odd.

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1 hour ago, Pip's Invitation said:

I do think problems with that particular lab are a more logical explanation than a bunch of people being positive for COVID all of the sudden. 

Sounds like that’s exactly what happened. All point of care tests have come back negative for the Bills so far. Sounds like that’s been the case for the other 10 teams involved too. And with so many positives all of a sudden from one lab in one day, clearly the lab screwed something up.

Can you imagine if something similar happens during the season though? If 11 teams suddenly have 5-10 players & coaches get positive tests from Saturday on a Sunday morning? No way the NFL allows those guys to play with just point of care tests that are supposedly less reliable, right? What a disaster that would be. For reference for the Bills, Josh Allen is one of the guys with what appears to be a false positive. Would the Bills suddenly be without their starting QB one week thanks to a lab screwup?

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NFL teams could see more false-positive COVID-19 tests, potentially forcing players to miss regular season games, until the league institutes a new testing system. 

The Athletic reports that last weekend's rash of false-positives due to testing errors could persist into the regular season. “Professional sports teams are using testing as a way to minimize the risk of transmission and acquisition of the virus. But it is important to remember that when you are doing this type of testing, and running this many tests on this many asymptomatic individuals, you are going to get false positives,” Dr. Amash Adalja, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, told The Athletic. “You’re going to have to have a way of adjudicating those to see if they are false positives, or are true positives.” Infectious disease experts "aren’t surprised that the NFL’s testing pool continues to return even a relatively small number of these inaccurate results," which will continue unless and until the league adopts a rapid testing system, like the saliva test developed at Yale University with funding from the NBA. 

SOURCE: The Athletic 

Aug 25, 2020, 8:59 AM ET

 

 

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10 hours ago, Faust said:

Yeah, I have to say I’m pretty impressed so far. With there being so many more players in the NFL than MLB and so many MLB players getting it early on, it seemed like a bad situation. But so far they’re looking pretty good. 

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On 9/4/2020 at 3:56 AM, Faust said:

I'm really NOT rooting for the NFL season to fail but I will say there were a bunch of people on opening day of baseball saying, "SEE, everything is going along FINE!". There were people a the second day of Sturgis that said they couldn't figure out what all the fuss is about.

We haven't had a football game played yet. For a lot of folks we are more worried about all the team traveling around the country as much as anything else. Until every team has had two road games I'm not sure if I am any more confident in the NFL season than I was before. If anything, the false negatives seem like a huge stumbling block. If MNF has a false negative for a starting QB that could completely decide whether that team makes or misses the playoffs. Or worse yet if you get an entire group of false negatives on a MNF how do you simply "re-schedule" that game without shortening recovery times for players between games and risking their health not related to Covid? Is the NFL really going to have final standings where a 9-7 team makes the playoffs ahead of a team that potentially finished 8-5 just because of bad test results(for either their team and/or their opponent)? I just haven't heard of any plan in place if a game(or more) does get cancelled. 

Are they really going to decide this stuff on the fly? That always works great in my FF leagues..... we'll just make that rule when we get to that unlikely event.

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6 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

I'm really NOT rooting for the NFL season to fail but I will say there were a bunch of people on opening day of baseball saying, "SEE, everything is going along FINE!". There were people a the second day of Sturgis that said they couldn't figure out what all the fuss is about.

We haven't had a football game played yet. For a lot of folks we are more worried about all the team traveling around the country as much as anything else. Until every team has had two road games I'm not sure if I am any more confident in the NFL season than I was before. If anything, the false negatives seem like a huge stumbling block. If MNF has a false negative for a starting QB that could completely decide whether that team makes or misses the playoffs. Or worse yet if you get an entire group of false negatives on a MNF how do you simply "re-schedule" that game without shortening recovery times for players between games and risking their health not related to Covid? Is the NFL really going to have final standings where a 9-7 team makes the playoffs ahead of a team that potentially finished 8-5 just because of bad test results(for either their team and/or their opponent)? I just haven't heard of any plan in place if a game(or more) does get cancelled. 

Are they really going to decide this stuff on the fly? That always works great in my FF leagues..... we'll just make that rule when we get to that unlikely event.

While your overall point remains the same, the 8-5 team would make the playoffs over a 9-7 team (better winning percentage).

I have been asking similar questions and have not seen any answers. I am still wondering what number of people testing positive in an organization would prompt the league not to play a game. One? Three? Ten? One if it’s Mahomes? Ten if they are players deemed not vital to the teams?

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18 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

While your overall point remains the same, the 8-5 team would make the playoffs over a 9-7 team (better winning percentage).

I have been asking similar questions and have not seen any answers. I am still wondering what number of people testing positive in an organization would prompt the league not to play a game. One? Three? Ten? One if it’s Mahomes? Ten if they are players deemed not vital to the teams?

I doubt they would play if it was just one player no matter who that player was. An injury could happen to any player in the league too and the team would have to figure it out, so I imagine they’d do the same if it’s a single player.

I bet though that if it was an entire position group or a certain percentage of overall players that it could trigger a cancelled game. If a tram suddenly loses all of their WRs, DBs, OL, etc, that’s simply not a functional team anymore and  even with an expanded practice squad you couldn’t expect them to field a competitive team.

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Travel will not be an issue. They are flying in the day before, allegedly later in the day and there will be security to monitor people from leaving the hotels. The main concern is what the players do with their time off at home. 

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7 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

 

Are they really going to decide this stuff on the fly? That always works great in my FF leagues..... we'll just make that rule when we get to that unlikely event.

Are you saying because the league doesn't announce publicly every single contingency plan they have, you think they're just making it up on the fly?

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20 minutes ago, Capella said:

Travel will not be an issue. They are flying in the day before, allegedly later in the day and there will be security to monitor people from leaving the hotels. The main concern is what the players do with their time off at home. 

Yes @Capella The travel restrictions are pretty tight. https://sportsnaut.com/2020/07/nfl-travel-rules-for-teams-during-2020-season-are-insane/. Of course it helps a ton to only have 8 regular season trips to manage.

My worry is the same as yours. That players get lax as the season wears on.

Clearly, they crushed Training Camp. Hard Knocks on HBO was fantastic to see how over the top they went to control things. And even the most ardent naysayers admit it worked. The regular season will be tougher. Keeping up the vigilance will be key.

If there's one angle helping, it's the peer pressure. No player wants to be "the one" that tests positive and puts his teammates and coaches and staff at risk. That's different than hoping a player doesn't mess up with a drug violation or doing something against the rules that only affects him. This has a communal effect and pressure on people that I hope helps. 

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4 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Are you saying because the league doesn't announce publicly every single contingency plan they have, you think they're just making it up on the fly?

MLB definitely, hilariously, made up stuff on the fly, so I think there is concern that the nfl will do that, but the nfl is run so so so much better that I don’t think there is much chance of that happening. 

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12 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Yes @Capella The travel restrictions are pretty tight. https://sportsnaut.com/2020/07/nfl-travel-rules-for-teams-during-2020-season-are-insane/. Of course it helps a ton to only have 8 regular season trips to manage.

My worry is the same as yours. That players get lax as the season wears on.

Clearly, they crushed Training Camp. Hard Knocks on HBO was fantastic to see how over the top they went to control things. And even the most ardent naysayers admit it worked. The regular season will be tougher. Keeping up the vigilance will be key.

If there's one angle helping, it's the peer pressure. No player wants to be "the one" that tests positive and puts his teammates and coaches and staff at risk. That's different than hoping a player doesn't mess up with a drug violation or doing something against the rules that only affects him. This has a communal effect and pressure on people that I hope helps. 

My main concern is later in the year when some team is 3-10 and the players aren’t as engaged as some playoff contenders and players let their guard down. But, most guys are constantly fighting for a roster spot either this year or next so that should keep everybody dialed in. 

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15 minutes ago, Capella said:

Travel will not be an issue. They are flying in the day before, allegedly later in the day and there will be security to monitor people from leaving the hotels. The main concern is what the players do with their time off at home. 

Not sure if it will happen, but some of the Bills beat reporters a few weeks ago were talking on a podcast about the potential for teams flying in the actual day of the game and going directly to the field. I could see that maybe with games that have pretty short travel time or afternoon/evening games. Seems like a potential logistical nightmare, but a pretty practical solution.

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41 minutes ago, Capella said:

My main concern is later in the year when some team is 3-10 and the players aren’t as engaged as some playoff contenders and players let their guard down. But, most guys are constantly fighting for a roster spot either this year or next so that should keep everybody dialed in. 

Agreed. 

But even then, you'd hope the pressure will be on the players, even when their season is likely done to do the right thing. We will see. 

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

Agreed. 

But even then, you'd hope the pressure will be on the players, even when their season is likely done to do the right thing. We will see. 

A bunch of early 20 somethings doing the right thing?  Yeah, what could go wrong?

Week 4.  I am predicting "something" drastic by week 4.   Not sure what.  Maybe cancelled games, maybe a team forfeiting 3 weeks.  Maybe season cancelled.  Who knows.

The game of football, the mentality of the players who play football, and the larger numbers will make this 100x more difficult to pull off than MLB or the NBA

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18 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

A bunch of early 20 somethings doing the right thing?  Yeah, what could go wrong?

Week 4.  I am predicting "something" drastic by week 4.   Not sure what.  Maybe cancelled games, maybe a team forfeiting 3 weeks.  Maybe season cancelled.  Who knows.

The game of football, the mentality of the players who play football, and the larger numbers will make this 100x more difficult to pull off than MLB or the NBA

Thanks. I hope you're not right. 

How confident are you in your prediction?

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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

A bunch of early 20 somethings doing the right thing?  Yeah, what could go wrong?

Week 4.  I am predicting "something" drastic by week 4.   Not sure what.  Maybe cancelled games, maybe a team forfeiting 3 weeks.  Maybe season cancelled.  Who knows.

The game of football, the mentality of the players who play football, and the larger numbers will make this 100x more difficult to pull off than MLB or the NBA

The same age bracket plays in the MLB, NBA and NHL.

You've been wrong on all your predictions so far. At least now, you've moved it back four weeks.

Did you watch Hard Knocks?

Have you seen the number of tests taken and results in the NFL this past month?

Do you think the NFL is not showing what happened in MLB to the players and the risk it poses?

There will be huge peer pressure to not to mess things up for all.  Indians players were pissed big time when those two players went out.

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A month ago I was sure there would be no season.  

Now I'm 85, 90% sure there will be.  Thank goodness.  

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Regarding roster numbers to qualify to play...College conferences are using a total roster number (53 for the Big 12 for ex), with an additional layer of healthy players required by QB (1), OL (7), and interior DL (4).

If a team meets all, they have to play or forfeit. If they don’t hit the total, but do meet the positional...they can elect to play.

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1 hour ago, Aerial Assault said:

A month ago I was sure there would be no season.  

Now I'm 85, 90% sure there will be.  Thank goodness.  

I hear you. Things move fast. 

 

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2 hours ago, Getzlaf15 said:



You've been wrong on all your predictions so far. At least now, you've moved it back four weeks.

 

Can you list all my predictions for me?  Curious to see if I am truly wrong on all of them

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On 7/8/2020 at 5:32 PM, ghostguy123 said:

Guessing season starts but doesn't finish, with strong possibility it doesn't even start.

College not happening.

What were those highlights on ESPN last night?

On 8/1/2020 at 6:52 AM, ghostguy123 said:

Roger would never cancel the season.  It would take some sort of legal mandate.  

That said, I could easily see the football season cancelled 3 weeks in, if not during the end of training camp when every team has 30 covids.

There won't be a season

 

4 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

A bunch of early 20 somethings doing the right thing?  Yeah, what could go wrong?

Week 4.  I am predicting "something" drastic by week 4.   Not sure what.  Maybe cancelled games, maybe a team forfeiting 3 weeks.  Maybe season cancelled.  Who knows.

The game of football, the mentality of the players who play football, and the larger numbers will make this 100x more difficult to pull off than MLB or the NBA

MLB came close to drastic with Miami, but have worked around it nicely. Same with Cards.  

32 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Can you list all my predictions for me?  Curious to see if I am truly wrong on all of them

Some college is being played and there is a push to reverse some of the decisions not to play.

What's going to happen Week 4, that isn't happening now?
 

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56 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

75%

Thanks. I'll buy you a beer if you're wrong. 

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Looking more and more optimistic as we go along. Then again, Southern California forecast for labor day: sunny, gatherings, no masks.

WTF people? It's like we're trying to be indoors now.

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1 hour ago, Getzlaf15 said:

 

What's going to happen Week 4, that isn't happening now?
 

4 weeks of 100 guys each game manhandling each other.  

Also, I pretty clearly was not wrong about EVERYTHING.  Much of college football being shut down is pretty darn drastic I would say.

As for saying there won't be a season for NFL, I stand by that.  If you want to interpret that as me saying week 1 wont happen, so be it, but that isnt what I meant

Edited by ghostguy123

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4 hours ago, Aerial Assault said:

A month ago I was sure there would be no season.  

Now I'm 85, 90% sure there will be.  Thank goodness.  

Agreed. That no player has had a legit positive for weeks is pretty incredible and not something I thought would happen. If they can make it through the first 3 weeks that we’ll off, I think they can make it through a season.

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On 9/6/2020 at 2:50 PM, Capella said:

Travel will not be an issue. They are flying in the day before, allegedly later in the day and there will be security to monitor people from leaving the hotels. The main concern is what the players do with their time off at home. 

I can't help but ask. Do you think the fact that the NBA has missed a grand total of 0 games for Covid related reasons while playing in a bubble, and MLB has been forced to reschedule 41 games due to Covid concerns while traveling around the country not in a bubble is just a coincidence?

If the NFL is forced to cancel or reschedule 41 games it just seems to me like the schedule will be untenable unless the league is willing to throw any regard for player/health safety out the window and play 3 or 4 games in a 14 day span. Which I'll admit is certainly possible. Keep in mind these are the same group of owners that took a month of negotiations before they were willing to forego a handful of meaningless exhibition games. 

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On 9/6/2020 at 3:08 PM, Joe Bryant said:

Are you saying because the league doesn't announce publicly every single contingency plan they have, you think they're just making it up on the fly?

"Every single contingency plan"? No.

Do I think they should announce a contingency plan if..... I dunno, there are 77 positive tests on a single day? As has already happened. Absolutely. Does that mean that they will test on a Friday so that if there is a rash of positives they have time to retest before Sunday morning? I dunno because they haven't announced any such plan. All I know for sure is there were 77 tests on a Saturday that came back positive so the league did the right thing and shut down those players until they could be retested. They got the results back on a Sunday night that those were false positives. Hooray..... except for the fact that if during the NFL season by my count a large majority of the games are scheduled to be played on a Sunday morning/afternoon. Will they play ALL those games on a Sunday night at the same time? I don't even know when on Sunday night they got the results that led them to believe that the 77 positives were false positives in the first place. Do teams get any prep time to get ready for the game if they have been waiting around for 12 hours to get the second test results? I have no idea. That's the situation a contingency plan is for.

Do I think there should be a contingency plan if the NFL is forced to postpone a large number of games just as things have played out in MLB? Well, yeah. Based on the schedule they introduced there just isn't a way to reschedule that many games even if you ignore the fact that some teams might finish their season a month before other  teams have made up the postponed games. Again, it seems reasonable to me that the league would have some sort of contingency plan in place for that. Personally, I'd be fine if the 2020 season went until June of 2021 but thus far the NFL has been hell-bent on keeping the schedule like any other year. How many positives on a team would cause a postponement? Would it be a postponement or an outright cancellation? Should those decisions just be made on the fly?

You are a pretty level headed guy Joe, can you honestly come up with a reason the owners would want to keep a super-secret-covid-contingency-plan under wraps? The only reason I can possibly think of why they would want to keep it secret is because they know it will be very unpopular with either the players, the fans, or more likely both. By assuming they didn't have a plan(rather than the possibility that they have a super secret plan they know is so bad that it will be unpopular) I felt I was giving the owners the benefit of the doubt.

I certainly can't prove that the owners don't have a super secret covid contingency plan. But I also can't prove that the owners aren't alien lizard men from a far-off galaxy. Without any shred of evidence of either I can only assume the most likely scenario is true. The owners are fallible humans that don't have a contingency plan if the season goes off the rails as has happened in other sports trying to travel around the country for the next 5(+ ?) months.

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On 9/6/2020 at 9:49 PM, Getzlaf15 said:

What's going to happen Week 4, that isn't happening now?

Right now 77 false positives on a Saturday means players sit on Sunday and don't PRACTICE. In four weeks from now if there are 77 false positives and players sit out they will be missing a GAME. Seems like a pretty big difference to me.

Oh, and ~2400 people will be shuffled around the country each and every week to play the games. That hasn't been going one now. That seems much different.

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1 minute ago, BoltBacker said:

Right now 77 false positives on a Saturday means players sit on Sunday and don't PRACTICE. In four weeks from now if there are 77 false positives and players sit out they will be missing a GAME. Seems like a pretty big difference to me.

Oh, and ~2400 people will be shuffled around the country each and every week to play the games. That hasn't been going one now. That seems much different.

Won't miss the game.  Just move it to another day or week.   Practice squads have been increased from 10 to 16.

MLB has been moving 900+ people one to two times a week.  I'm sure the NFL is pounding the players to not do anything stupid like those early MLB players did.

All these fear posts are getting quite tiresome.   The NFL did a great job during training camp. There are only 19 players on NFL Covid IR list at this moment.

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On 8/23/2020 at 5:09 PM, Tool said:

So could there be a scenario where different teams play a different number of games? That would be odd.

I think what will be more odd is if games are cancelled on a Sunday if the networks are going to be happy about just moving them to a Monday. If it's Monday during the day the networks are not going to be happy(and neither will the NFL when it comes to negotiating the next round of contracts) if so much viewership is based on a Monday afternoon. If the games are moved to Monday night with they compete with the game already scheduled for MNF? If so, MNF isn't going to appreciate the competition. Football just isn't meant for sliding games forward and back a few days. Just imagine if you were supposed to play on a Sunday and again on Thursday night. That will be just great for the players if they are now playing on Monday night and again on Thursday night. 

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