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How will CV affect the NFL? (1 Viewer)

The diamond princess cruise ship had a death rate of around .85 percent.  That seems like great news

I pray that I am an idiot and we are able to slow the spread and at the same time find that the estimate of 1 percent death rate ends up as way too high. 
That is interesting. I hope so, too. I can't help but wonder if the microcosm that is a cruise ship represents a slightlier healthier demographic than the general population. I know lots of elderly take cruises, though, but not all elderly are necessarily high risk. Anyway I think it's fair to say that the highest risk amongst us would probably not be on a cruise. So it may be skewed. I hope I'm wrong.

 
barackdhouse said:
That is interesting. I hope so, too. I can't help but wonder if the microcosm that is a cruise ship represents a slightlier healthier demographic than the general population. I know lots of elderly take cruises, though, but not all elderly are necessarily high risk. Anyway I think it's fair to say that the highest risk amongst us would probably not be on a cruise. So it may be skewed. I hope I'm wrong.
Yes it certainly may be.  8.5 times as deadly as normal flu instead of 10 is still really bad, but it is also comforting that it should not be as high as the early numbers.  It never is though and we knew it would come down, hence estimating from 3.5 percent down to 1.

I don't know a lot about Italy and how much people smoke, but I bet the air quality is bad at best in Hubei and metropolitan China. That probably increases it based on what has been reported. 

South Korea is at .65 percent last I checked, that is really high and seems like best case scenario. 

Eta: just heard an interview with Johns Hopkins scientist who says that the worst case scenario is .6 percent based on South Korea. He also said most of us are going to get it, so still really bad. 

 
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Yes it certainly may be.  8.5 times as deadly as normal flu instead of 10 is still really bad, but it is also comforting that it should not be as high as the early numbers.  It never is though and we knew it would come down, hence estimating from 3.5 percent down to 1.

I don't know a lot about Italy and how much people smoke, but I bet the air quality is bad at best in Hubei and metropolitan China. That probably increases it based on what has been reported. 

South Korea is at .65 percent last I checked, that is really high and seems like best case scenario. 

Eta: just heard an interview with Johns Hopkins scientist who says that the worst case scenario is .6 percent based on South Korea. He also said most of us are going to get it, so still really bad. 
Yeah I've heard estimates as many as 60 million Americans may get it. The early return is skewed here in the US but the news has 41 dead/1600 infected for 2.5%. Or x25 regular flu. But yes we know it will be lower. Seems to be some kind of consensus that it will be closer to 1.0% but yeah that's 10 times worse than flu. And 1% of 60,000,000 is 600,000 dead. Or about as many as died in the Civil War. 

 
barackdhouse said:
That is interesting. I hope so, too. I can't help but wonder if the microcosm that is a cruise ship represents a slightlier healthier demographic than the general population. I know lots of elderly take cruises, though, but not all elderly are necessarily high risk. Anyway I think it's fair to say that the highest risk amongst us would probably not be on a cruise. So it may be skewed. I hope I'm wrong.
I've never been on a cruise and hope I never will. I don't mean to be offensive but I got friends who go a lot and they tell  me they are usually filled with obese people. The all you can eat and lounging are big draws. Again, don't mean to offend anyone or be crass but technically speaking if what my friends say is true and the mortality rate is this good that's pretty good.

I know nothing about this stuff but while I know we don't have a cure would certain treatments not help? As in proper hydration, oxygen tanks, etc. etc? Would their care on the boat be better or worse then normal person right now?

I don't know a lot about Italy and how much people smoke, but I bet the air quality is bad at best in Hubei and metropolitan China. That probably increases it based on what has been reported.

Eta: just heard an interview with Johns Hopkins scientist who says that the worst case scenario is .6 percent based on South Korea. He also said most of us are going to get it, so still really bad. 
Italy has a lot of old people is one the reasons cited for their high mortality rate and I also wonder if the hospital overcrowding became an issue. China has bad air quality but also 52% of the men smoke, I think women it's down to 18% and that's been cites as a contributing factor.

The .6 worst case is good news but I still can't go with it and not because I dare to think I know more then a John Hopkins scientist. It's just that other esteemed doctors and scientists keep throwing out different numbers. It's so hard to know because we really have no idea how many people had such minor symptoms they never knew they had it. .6 worst case would be ideal but it's also a double edged sword in the sense it would mean a ton of people were/are getting the virus.

 
Yeah I've heard estimates as many as 60 million Americans may get it. The early return is skewed here in the US but the news has 41 dead/1600 infected for 2.5%. Or x25 regular flu. But yes we know it will be lower. Seems to be some kind of consensus that it will be closer to 1.0% but yeah that's 10 times worse than flu. And 1% of 60,000,000 is 600,000 dead. Or about as many as died in the Civil War. 
This estimate was saying between 40 and 70 percent would get it if I remember correctly.  That would be around 175 million people in the US on the low end of that range.  0.6 percent of that would kill over a million people, so let's hope we are totally wrong and it ends up with a similar death rate to flu after we learn how to react. 

If New York has 5 million people get it, and this killed 0.6 percent of them, it would kill 10 times as many people as 9/11 in that city alone. 

This is not to say panic and horde toilet paper. 🤣 Just take it seriously and take on the responsibility to help minimize the spread and it will be as small of a deal as it can be.  The scary stuff only happens if people refuse to be proactive.  I feel a lot better about it now that I see that the public and authorities response is no longer complete denial. 

 
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Another part I didn't really think about. Pro days for some players can make a big difference in their stock and postponing but still getting a pro day done pre-draft will be difficult.

Regarding a prior post that mentioned hospitals having no room b/c of all the unnecessary visits by people that shouldn't be there (don't really feel like looking back to quote) -- it's not accurate at all. The issue is building infrastructure (iso rooms) and supplies (like masks) that are not stocked at levels required to accommodate the current need. Good article on the Seattle hospital with details about it. Side note: the title was "A 'New Normal' for Hospitals on the Front Lines Fighting Coronavirus" last night but is much more grabby today. 

 
https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/article/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-/

Excellent stuff here from UCSF, one of the top medical schools in the country. 

Highlights: first impacts NFL

I can only tell you two things definitively. Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better. And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least. Our lives are going to look different for the next year. 

Wuhan has 4.3 beds per thousand while US has 2.8 beds per thousand. Wuhan built 2 additional hospitals in 2 weeks. Even so, most patients were sent to gymnasiums to sleep on cots.  

We are moving from containment to care. 

We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.

40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population

The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.

At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US. 

Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed

 
Containment is not futile for those not infected. If they are all contained at home, how will they get infected? They won't.

70% of our country will have it within a year or so? Could be, but far from a given. 
I don't want to be a jerk about this, but based on what?   

Eta: I may be misreading you and you are saying people should not take that as a license to not contain themselves when sick, and people who don't go out won't get it.  I guess that's why I should never be a jerk in a response :) .  I totally agree with this - if our country can manage that it would REALLY help.

This thing has elite traits for spreading from human to human.  Ohio just announced that they think 100k people in the state have it. 

It's because it's slightly contagious really early on (based on South Korea testing), days before symptoms, and then really contagious (as high as 2 times as contagious as Flu) after they have symptoms.  

That's summarized in the links above. 

 
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Containment is not futile for those not infected. If they are all contained at home, how will they get infected? They won't.

70% of our country will have it within a year or so? Could be, but far from a given. 
My assumption is that containment, in this case, means "preventing it from spreading globally" and "care" is simply treating cases as they arise. Preventing the spread is now considered mitigation, not containment. Semantics... and I won't claim my interpretation is correct and/or yours is not. Just my read on the word use.

 
Per ESPN's Dan Graziano, the NFL is "prohibiting all in-person visits with draft eligible prospects" as a response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Graziano passes along that the NFL has sent out a memo to all teams barring team visits for the time being and additionally barring team personnel from traveling to meet face-to-face with prospects. It does not appear that there is a timeline -- even a soft timeline -- for when meetings might be allowed to resume. One tangible offshoot of this is that players who were not invited to the combine are going to be getting the short stick in terms of catching up with pro squads. We will continue to provide updates on the ongoing pandemic response in terms of the draft as information warrants.

SOURCE: Dan Graziano on Twitter

Mar 13, 2020, 3:17 PM ET

 
The death rate will always be somewhat artificially high across the world because they are already many people who have suffered mild flu like symptoms and simply self isolated themselves and recovered. Already, tens upon tens of thousands of people have probably  had corona and it will never be recorded down anywhere 

 
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I haven’t read anything in this thread, but for many contagious things that get passed around, people tend to get better when the weather gets hot . . . but many times the bug comes back as a strain in the fall/winter. The point being, the NFL season could easily get disrupted even if the season is 6 months away. 

 
I haven’t read anything in this thread, but for many contagious things that get passed around, people tend to get better when the weather gets hot . . . but many times the bug comes back as a strain in the fall/winter. The point being, the NFL season could easily get disrupted even if the season is 6 months away. 
The only thing about that is there’s problems all over the world. It’s hot in lots of places right now such as Singapore and South America.

 
Our local news just showed a clip where they directed us not to go to an ER if we think we are infected. Instead they recommend we go to... uhm... they didn't say. Just, don't go to the ER. Thanks, helpful tip.

 
That's exactly the point. If you feel you have sx call your doctor and the nurse will triage you and direct you where to go if you need testing. The last thing our ER needs is to be overwhelmed with people with coughs and fevers. Also the last thing we need is our testing sites getting over run with people who dont need to be tested. That is what my hospital system is doing. It conserves beds for people who actually need them and it conserves resources. 
When (not if) some relatively healthy non-senior citizen dies while self-quarantining, it's going to be hard to stop people from showing up at the ER doorstep.  If I die because I didn't get diagnosed in time, I am gonna be mad.

 
That's exactly the point. If you feel you have sx call your doctor and the nurse will triage you and direct you where to go if you need testing. The last thing our ER needs is to be overwhelmed with people with coughs and fevers. Also the last thing we need is our testing sites getting over run with people who dont need to be tested. That is what my hospital system is doing. It conserves beds for people who actually need them and it conserves resources. 
Right. That is what they SHOULD have told people. People are not rational right now. Telling them not to go to the ER, that's ineffective if you don't tell them what they SHOULD do. It may actually cause even more irrational panic, which is about the last thing we need. I mean, how hard is it to say "Don't go to the ER, call your family physician"?

 
NFL is going to be fine, didn't you guys read Sylvia Browne's End of Days yet?? She has it here -

In around 2020 a severe pneumonia-like illness will spread throughout the globe, attacking the lungs and the bronchial tubes and resisting all known treatments. Almost more baffling than the illness itself will be the fact that it will suddenly vanish as quickly as it arrived, attack again ten years later, and then disappear completely.

 
Yep, they took it seriously from day one. 

Unlike here where our governments lived in active denial doing basically nothing but convincing crowds of gullible, scientifically illiterate citizens that this is a hoax at best and no big deal, just like the flu, at worst. 
The difference is those other countries dealt with this before so they have experience so Government was prepared and the population understands the importance of following the rules. We've never had anything like this so had to prepare very late

 
The difference is those other countries dealt with this before so they have experience so Government was prepared and the population understands the importance of following the rules. We've never had anything like this so had to prepare very late
Yep, Singapore had SARS right? 

 
Yep, Singapore had SARS right? 
The distribution is based on the 2002–2003 epidemic. The disease appeared in November 2002 in the Guangdong province of southern China. This area is considered as a potential zone of re-emergence of SARS-CoV.

Other countries/areas in which chains of human-to-human transmission occurred after early importation of cases were Toronto in Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, Chinese Taipei, Singapore, and Hanoi in Viet Nam.

 
They will be talking about the great toilet paper shortage for years.  People are actually fighting over TP at Wal-Mart.  Unbelievable. 
It's quite hilarious.  If you out of food first, you probably won't need all that!

Maybe they plan to sell on ebay?  lmao...

Do they think diarrhea is a symptom?

 
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Saints coach Sean Payton said, "The start of our league year, which is due to be this [coming] Wednesday, I think, when free agency begins ... that's gonna be, I think, pushed back."

Payton added, "Because there’s a lot that goes into that, a lot of visits players take." So far the NFL is planning to move forward with the current schedule in place, but public pressure, as well as the lack of ability to conduct visits and get physicals from free agents, makes it seem at least somewhat likely that we see a change made sometime soon.

SOURCE: Eric Edholm on Twitter

Mar 14, 2020, 7:34 PM ET

 
cloppbeast said:
Thanks for that, now my kids can't have cereal for breakfast because every place is sold out of milk. God bless America.
Reasonably stocked. 2 gallons of milk, bjs 2 pack of cereal, extra bread, hot dogs and buns, pbj 2 packs. Stores will restock. Your kid should be able to eat.

 
I think this behavior is why the establishment wasn't appearing to take this seriously.  They didn't want to unleash the morons who horde and panic.  This is some real stuff, but people need to relax and look out for each other.  None of this dog eat dog every man for himself bullcrap.

Cmon people.

I'm really happy to say my neighborhood has all kinds of people making social media posts offering to help the elderly, etc.

 
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Went to buy some toilet paper today because we're low and there is none anywhere, so I started calling....NOTHING!!  I can't believe people are buying up TP.  It's hard to believe people are this stupid.  Don't they realize if it was a real apocalypse they would starve and wouldn't need TP?

 
Went to buy some toilet paper today because we're low and there is none anywhere, so I started calling....NOTHING!!  I can't believe people are buying up TP.  It's hard to believe people are this stupid.  Don't they realize if it was a real apocalypse they would starve and wouldn't need TP?
Even if we had to (God forbid) resort to cannibalism, we'd still need TP.              😁

 
Even if we had to (God forbid) resort to cannibalism, we'd still need TP.              😁
I used a gift card from two Christmas' ago and bought some on amazon.  Jesus Christ this is ridiculous.  

 
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Even if we had to (God forbid) resort to cannibalism, we'd still need TP.              😁
Next thing you know people will start stealing it from restaurants, quick-stops, and other businesses.  So, if you're out and about you might want to think twice about using public facilities.  I can see it now, people will start using the paper towels in public restrooms and stop up their toilets.  People are basically stupid.

 
There are conflicting reports as to whether the NFL Draft will end up being moved or postponed.

Hub Arkush of Pro Football Weekly reported on Saturday evening that the draft would be postponed until May "at least," and would be moved from Las Vegas. But multiple reporters, including Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Steve Wyche of the NFL Network, have both heard differently. For now, we'll just need to wait for further information in what is a fluid situation. If the NFL does move to postpone or move the draft, we'll pass along the official word.

SOURCE: Steve Wyche on Twitter

Mar 15, 2020, 6:45 PM ET

 
cloppbeast said:
Thanks for that, now my kids can't have cereal for breakfast because every place is sold out of milk. God bless America.
They'll live. I know it means more effort for you ;) If it was my kids without cereal I'd be stuck cooking them something instead. 

 

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