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Covid and the Economy (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
gianmarco
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I think the market will take another 30% dump before recovery begins
TripItUp
Footballguy
no question that many of the rich are going to get richer....pretty much every recession ever.
I think you're right but I don't have the guts to sell my long-term holds. All new money going into Roth/401K is gonna sit in cash for a while though.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
We all gonna get a check for a thousand dollars? Cool.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I moved all my 403b money into cash when the S&P was about 2800.
New money going in is all stocks
TripItUp
Footballguy
Jobber
Footballguy
I'm going to do my part to stimulate the economy during the recovery by spending what I can within reason. Targeting local small businesses as much as possible. This is all under the assumption I'm able to keep my job, as well as my wife keeping hers. Though her job (airline) could be cut back on hours or pay at some point. We will see.
- Kitchen Remodel. We had one estimate done back in January and they priced it about 12k. We'll get another estimate or two after all this and just go with it. That'll help that company, plus any employees and subs.
- Restaurants. Sit down restaurants, where I can tip more than the usual 20%.
- New Car? I want a Tesla. I need a Tesla.
- Furnace. My furnace is 21 years old. I'm in Minnesota. You can imagine what would happen if this thing ####s the bed in the middle of January. Lots of small local places who install furnaces.
- Kitchen Remodel. We had one estimate done back in January and they priced it about 12k. We'll get another estimate or two after all this and just go with it. That'll help that company, plus any employees and subs.
- Restaurants. Sit down restaurants, where I can tip more than the usual 20%.
- New Car? I want a Tesla. I need a Tesla.
- Furnace. My furnace is 21 years old. I'm in Minnesota. You can imagine what would happen if this thing ####s the bed in the middle of January. Lots of small local places who install furnaces.
TripItUp
Footballguy
honestly, unless you are flush, I wouldn't be spending a dime on anything that isn't necessary. cash will be king, the more you have of it, the closer you will be to becoming a king.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Yep, there will be billion dollar handouts and the government will wave a thousand dollar bill with the other hand so we don’t notice.
Jobber
Footballguy
While I agree, I feel like it's my duty to do something. Even buying a furnace, I'm supporting some local installer company, employees, shipping company, Lennox (or whatever brand) and their workers. I'm certainly not capable of doing ALL of the above (kitchen, car, furnace, etc) but can do at least some of it for myself and others.
RedmondLonghorn
Footballguy
No dining in is allowed here whatsoever. It won’t be long until that is true everywhere, IMO.
Jobber
Footballguy
Yep, I was adding onto my original post where this is all stuff for after the Covid crisis.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Saw this meme floating around today and thought there was some sense to it.
"Can I ask a real question?
Why is it that individuals are expected to save 3 months expenses + an emergency fund to survive loss of income but giant businesses can't seem to survive this without billions from the government?"
-fish-
Footballguy
Local market here is probably going to go under. Most of their revenue is from selling microbrews on tap, but they can't do that and are limited to selling groceries, which they don't have a lot of. They're really just a neighborhood store where you'd pick up a loaf of bread or some candy or ice cream, and people from the neighborhood stop in and have a beer and hang out for a while. Really nice people. They already laid off all of their employees and are trying to stay open with just the husband and wife running it.
I assume this or a similar story is being played out all over the nation. Final death of mom and pop shops.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
So what's the thousand dollar check for everyone going to accomplish?
TripItUp
Footballguy
The small business hit and the hit to those living paycheck to paycheck that lose their jobs will be sad chapter of this pandemic.
TripItUp
Footballguy
keep people fed and sheltered
I really like the "rent hibernation" that California is proposing for small businesses...seems like a no-brainer if it doesn't endanger the banks.
mr roboto
Footballguy
Small biz owner here...
Avg expenses around 20k/month.
10000 employee salary (we are closed I could cut this entirely but don’t want to yet)
4000 rent
3000 marketing
1500 franchise royalty
1500 in misc utilities, software dues, random supplies etc...
Could cut salaries and marketing. Royalties supposed to be minimum 895/month. Maybe negotiate rent down to 50%
Could keep lease and royalties to the franchisor at 3-5k plus maybe 1k in misc subscriptions I need to keep active
So 4-6k to keep from defaulting on my long term obligations.
I could run like that @ current cash reserves in biz for about 9-11 months
But - I’d have no way to restart (hire new employees, ramp marketing etc)
Avg expenses around 20k/month.
10000 employee salary (we are closed I could cut this entirely but don’t want to yet)
4000 rent
3000 marketing
1500 franchise royalty
1500 in misc utilities, software dues, random supplies etc...
Could cut salaries and marketing. Royalties supposed to be minimum 895/month. Maybe negotiate rent down to 50%
Could keep lease and royalties to the franchisor at 3-5k plus maybe 1k in misc subscriptions I need to keep active
So 4-6k to keep from defaulting on my long term obligations.
I could run like that @ current cash reserves in biz for about 9-11 months
But - I’d have no way to restart (hire new employees, ramp marketing etc)
ghostguy123
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
Personally, I don’t care. I get the fact that the upper class may not actually spend $1000. It’s of such small consequence that I don’t care.
Zegras11
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
Not to be overly negative, but the implications of this global pandemic may be felt for a lot longer than the actual pandemic lasts.
I'm mostly concerned about the specter of job losses, not just for me but the overall economy. Small businesses will fold and I imagine that a lot of large companies will start laying off people if their business is not expected to snap back.
Job losses plus the perceived and actual loss of wealth (stock market) will affect consumer spending, which is obviously the huge driver of global economic activity.
Things will come back, but it may take a long time like we saw post-2008.
I'm mostly concerned about the specter of job losses, not just for me but the overall economy. Small businesses will fold and I imagine that a lot of large companies will start laying off people if their business is not expected to snap back.
Job losses plus the perceived and actual loss of wealth (stock market) will affect consumer spending, which is obviously the huge driver of global economic activity.
Things will come back, but it may take a long time like we saw post-2008.
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Cjw_55106
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I have no idea.
Nothing in my job life changes (unless my tenants stop paying me I guess but that's unlikely given their job status). While some other people have a complete loss of income.
Meanwhile we both get a grand. Just doesnt seem right ya know
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TripItUp
Footballguy
I think this is a worthwhile discussion.
Even the govt doesn't know how this plays out.
My best guess is a recession but not a depression. I'm basing that on past epidemics on some of the current datapoints, but that may be optimistic. Negative growth in Q2 and Q3 and then positive growth in Q4 and beyond. There's been a lot of discussion whether or not it's a slow recovery or quick recovery, I could see it being somewhere in the middle but so many unknown variables at this point...even the top economists don't agree from what I've seen and heard.
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zamboni
Footballguy
I think that is a reasonable forecast - Q2 and Q3 likely down before we see positive growth later in the year.
But no matter what the official economic term is (there is no official definition of "depression"), what really matters is how one feels personally about their own wealth and spending situation. And that is what trickles down into the economy.
Zegras11
Footballguy
Buy 20, $50 Gift certificates to local small businesses so they can get past this. If everyone does something like this, the economy won't crash so hard.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
I actually think depression is on the table...in 1929, over 5 days, market dropped 25%. We’re at that point now, and we know more is coming. Goldman advised of a sub-2000 S&P 500...not that I’m qualified, but I could see it dropping more than that as true panic sets in.
We haven’t even seen 100 US deaths total from this. By this time next month, we’ll be seeing thousands/day...maybe even tens of thousands. The side effect too is that our healthcare system will be so overwhelmed that other maladies people have, which in other times wouldn’t have taken lives...will.
As more and more companies struggle to generate revenue, they’ll need to reduce costs, labor being the key ingredient. So for me, the ripple effect of a world we once knew going away is simply going to create chaos on a number of fronts, the economy being one.
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zamboni
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Not really. Our markets were at least 20% overinflated before this thing even started. Our markets had chose to ignore risk and fundamentals for quite some time—momentum was the only thing propelling it to ridiculous evaluations. Tesla was up to $900 per share for barely being profitable for a couple of quarters. Sure—panic probably played a small part—but it wasn’t the major part. If you factor in the fact that our leadership didn’t take the virus seriously until the last couple of weeks— that added fuel to the fire. Our president first said that virus was a hoax—and then days later said it was a “flu and that you could still go to work with a mild case of it”. Ineptitude had as much to do with the drop as panic has.
In regards to the economy—I do think that lower to middle class people will get screwed once again. The airlines and big corporations have had bull runs of 8-10 years—and the government will give them multi-billion/trillion dollar bailouts to keep them around—but see what they do for the mom/pop restaurants, breweries, gyms, shops and soo many more types of businesses. Their businesses will be forced to close and their employees will lose their jobs—all while a company like Boeing will get billions from the government. The same company that lied and deceived safety regulators of the max—which ended up being nothing short of a death trap. The gap between the super wealthy and the rest will grow exponentially because of this—which is the second slap in the face after the humanitarian toll
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zamboni
Footballguy
The market definitely got way ahead of fundamentals, but this sharp and precipitous drop is clearly fear-based. The fear factor in the market now (evidenced by the VIC) is proof positive of the prevailing sentiment.
snogger
Footballguy
My hope is people will realize just how much small businesses matter. I know I have been guilty of buying from the "big stores" (Walmart, Sam's club, Best Buy, etc..) to save a few dollars.
But this crisis has already made us buy dog food, treats, etc. from the local pet store, instead of saving a few bucks by buying from Walmart.
We normally only eat out 2 to 4 times a month. But plan to order takeout from our local restraunt's a few times this week as they are getting killed.
Going forward we will be spending more locally to support our community and I hope others do as well.
But this crisis has already made us buy dog food, treats, etc. from the local pet store, instead of saving a few bucks by buying from Walmart.
We normally only eat out 2 to 4 times a month. But plan to order takeout from our local restraunt's a few times this week as they are getting killed.
Going forward we will be spending more locally to support our community and I hope others do as well.
snogger
Footballguy
It's all over the place right now.. aka
I've read $1000 per person.. Then $1000 per person, per month for 3 months.. Others $1500, plus $500 per Child.. Then cutoffs of 1 million dollars, to others saying cut off at $65000... I have very little confidence that our government can figure this out fast enough to get checks "in the mail" in two weeks..
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shader
Footballguy
I’ve seen it compared to the crew of Apollo 13 turning it off and drifting home. Then spending that time figuring out they could start it back up when it was time.
towney
Footballguy
Need to include Amazon. A lot of folks for go local retailers for Amazon. I've been trying to convince my wife to buy local vs Amazon.My hope is people will realize just how much small businesses matter. I know I have been guilty of buying from the "big stores" (Walmart, Sam's club, Best Buy, etc..) to save a few dollars.
But this crisis has already made us buy dog food, treats, etc. from the local pet store, instead of saving a few bucks by buying from Walmart.
We normally only eat out 2 to 4 times a month. But plan to order takeout from our local restraunt's a few times this week as they are getting killed.
Going forward we will be spending more locally to support our community and I hope others do as well.
Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
Anybody hear about this kind of stuff?
thot leedurr
@DocDre
7h
My brother got laid off yesterday from Marriott. He applied for unemployment; they called to check his employment status. Marriott HR says he’s NOT laid off but on a ZERO hour schedule. So he can’t qualify for unemployment NOR does he have health insurance.
thot leedurr
@DocDre
7h
My brother got laid off yesterday from Marriott. He applied for unemployment; they called to check his employment status. Marriott HR says he’s NOT laid off but on a ZERO hour schedule. So he can’t qualify for unemployment NOR does he have health insurance.
prosopis
Arizona Chupacabra
Penguin
Footballguy
Problem I see is in the near term many won't survive. In NJ, NY & CT bars are closed down. Restaurants can only serve take out or delivery and that stops at 8pm. I talked to a few owners around here and they are getting killed, almost no one is orderingMy hope is people will realize just how much small businesses matter. I know I have been guilty of buying from the "big stores" (Walmart, Sam's club, Best Buy, etc..) to save a few dollars.
But this crisis has already made us buy dog food, treats, etc. from the local pet store, instead of saving a few bucks by buying from Walmart.
We normally only eat out 2 to 4 times a month. But plan to order takeout from our local restraunt's a few times this week as they are getting killed.
Going forward we will be spending more locally to support our community and I hope others do as well.
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