I think saying Chubb or Hunt were RB14 or or whatever during weeks 10-16 is a bit misleading and paints a much rosier picture.
Cleveland had already had their bye week, even removing injuries you had 10 RB's who averaged more PPG during either Browns RB during this timeframe that had not had their bye week.
I think it's far more accurate to look at average points per game from week 10-16 and if need be make an adjustment for a 1-2 game odd variance of a player. which in this case would be the one 16.2 game from Wes Hills.
During that 10-16 per game Chubb was RB20 and Hunt was RB23. I don't like to use week 17 but if you did it would move them back a bit more.
I feel comfortable tossing out Wes Hill's one game that moved both of them back up a spot. May sound like splitting hairs but to me both of these RB's were more like RB19 and RB22 during the time Hunt returned.
That's a good point. I admittedly didn't check for bye week before posting the number, and average ranking definitely moves down. To make up for my oversight, and because I am feeling unmotivated to work from home this fine Monday morning, I dug into the numbers a bit more.
I don't expect Chubb to get less carries than he got with Hunt there last year. He was on pace for 288 carries with Hunt, so let's say he gets 275 next year. I think it's a safe assumption that he'll continue to cede passing game work to Hunt. So TDs are going to be his bread and butter. Looking at his workload last year, there was negative TD variance affecting his numbers after Hunt returned, which I think had little to do with Hunt.
According to this site he had 12 more red zone opportunities with Hunt active than he did with Hunt inactive. So the fact he had 6 rushing TDs in the 1st half of the season and 2 after Hunt came back seems flukey. On top of that, the offense was a special kind of dumpster fire last year (even for the Browns) which is unlikely to be repeated, especially if the OL is improved with the Conklin signing and potentially a draft pick added.
On the season, Chubb had a below average rate of TD/carries compared to other NFL starters (Chubb = 2.7%, average = 3.6%, from the same site I linked above). So if he gets a similar number of carries, and the OL/ overall offense improves, he likely gets at least 8 again.
Is it a good assumption that Stefanski uses Chubb and Hunt in about the same roles? For reference Dalvin Cook got 241 and Mattison got 100 carries in the 13 games they both played, which lines up pretty close on average to the carries split in Cleveland. There's probably not as big a talent gap in Chubb vs. Hunt as there is Cook vs. Mattison. That said, Cook left early a couple of games, which swings carries more toward Mattison than would have happened if Cook stayed healthy. Plus, I think Chubb is clearly better as a runner, and Hunt's strength is versatility, so I'd guess we see a similar split.
I think it's reasonable to expect at least 275 carries, not much work in the passing game, and at least as many TDs as he had last year. That should be good for low RB1/ high RB2 numbers. I'd like the ceiling to be higher for RB7 in dynasty, so I'd take a Mixon, Fournette, or Taylor over him, and probably a guy like Ekeler too. I'm not sure who else should be moved above him. Jacobs and Henry? They seem to have the same concerns of not getting passing work. Aaron Jones? Maybe if he signs an extension with GB that shows they commit to him as a workhorse, but he either needs to continue exceeding the average TD rate by more than double, or get an increased workload. Sanders or another rookie are also in play, but I feel more comfortable with Chubb at this point.