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Most overrated dynasty player based on ADP (1 Viewer)

fruity pebbles

Footballguy
Who’s your most overrated dynasty player based on average draft position? 
Mine........Amari Cooper. His ADP is 22nd overall, 2nd round start up value. FBG rankings have him as the #6 WR. For what? His typical 1100 yard season? Last 11 games of the season he had 677 yards and his galloping mate had 768 yards. Gallup can be had three rounds later. 
who’s yours?

 
Where do you find Cooper at 22nd overall?  Closest I can find him is 28th.

My picks would be rbs L Bell and k Johnson, who ADP calculator has at 33rd and 34 respectively.  They have guys like ekler (46) mack (48) and drake (53) who I'd prefer straight up over ten picks behind them.

 
This one is not going to be popular and I'm not sure I would say "most" overrated, but I wonder where people think Nick Chubb is going to get the additional points to score anywhere in line with where people value him in dynasty.

Nick Chubb was 2nd in the NFL in rushing last year yet he still only finished as RB8 in fantasy scoring (assuming PPR), and RB12 in fantasy PPG.  He's not going to finish top 2 in rushing every year and even if he does, he was merely a low end RB1 while doing so.  To make the leap to be a guy scoring anywhere near what people are valuing him at he's either going to have to catch a lot more passes or score a lot more TDs.

Unless the Browns magically fight 30 years of disappointment and turn things around at just the right time I'm not seeing a big spike in TDs.  He could certainly increase from 8 but this isn't a team that's going to support a RB scoring the ~20ish TDs it would take to make him a top 5 back (he was 64 points behind RB5 in ppg last year which is the equivalent of almost 11 TDs).

Could he catch more passes?  I guess, maybe one day.  But his receiving usage really went into the toilet when Hunt came in last year.  He averaged just 1.3 catches per game when Hunt played.

It's dynasty so Hunt will be gone in a year but by then Chubb will be 25 and entering the season where he turns 26 which as we've seen lately can cause a guy to lose a lot of luster.  And it's not like I'm overly confident that Chubb will become a 60+ reception guy anyway.

He's young and talented, so I get that is a good bet in dynasty.  I'm just wondering what kind of realistic projections people are putting out there that could get last year's RB12 in PPG up to anywhere near the range that his value currently dictates when he only finished as RB12 despite Hunt missing half the year and Chubb finishing 2nd in the NFL in rushing.

 
I also think there's a large amount of recency bias towards Cook.  He's only had one healthy year.  Yes, he's a beast when healthy, but he plays in the most injury prone position and if I'm debating between him and someone like Chubb for my multi-year anchor that needs to factor in.
He's playing for his next contract this year. That motivation is HUGE IMO. as long as he stays healthy, he's going to beast. 

 
ffmail4me said:
He's playing for his next contract this year. That motivation is HUGE IMO. as long as he stays healthy, he's going to beast. 
Him staying healthy was literally my only concern.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
This one is not going to be popular and I'm not sure I would say "most" overrated, but I wonder where people think Nick Chubb is going to get the additional points to score anywhere in line with where people value him in dynasty.

Nick Chubb was 2nd in the NFL in rushing last year yet he still only finished as RB8 in fantasy scoring (assuming PPR), and RB12 in fantasy PPG.  He's not going to finish top 2 in rushing every year and even if he does, he was merely a low end RB1 while doing so.  To make the leap to be a guy scoring anywhere near what people are valuing him at he's either going to have to catch a lot more passes or score a lot more TDs.

Unless the Browns magically fight 30 years of disappointment and turn things around at just the right time I'm not seeing a big spike in TDs.  He could certainly increase from 8 but this isn't a team that's going to support a RB scoring the ~20ish TDs it would take to make him a top 5 back (he was 64 points behind RB5 in ppg last year which is the equivalent of almost 11 TDs).

Could he catch more passes?  I guess, maybe one day.  But his receiving usage really went into the toilet when Hunt came in last year.  He averaged just 1.3 catches per game when Hunt played.

It's dynasty so Hunt will be gone in a year but by then Chubb will be 25 and entering the season where he turns 26 which as we've seen lately can cause a guy to lose a lot of luster.  And it's not like I'm overly confident that Chubb will become a 60+ reception guy anyway.

He's young and talented, so I get that is a good bet in dynasty.  I'm just wondering what kind of realistic projections people are putting out there that could get last year's RB12 in PPG up to anywhere near the range that his value currently dictates when he only finished as RB12 despite Hunt missing half the year and Chubb finishing 2nd in the NFL in rushing.
The counter argument to this is that the Browns offense was pretty bad last year mostly due to their offensive line and coaching. This year they brought in Conklin and hopefully will have a better offensive system with Stefanski. Chubb went 1494/8 in his second year and his situation improved. I think his adp makes sense to me.

 
Agree with Kerryon (probably #1) and Sanders.

I'll add AJ Brown. I'd be happy to own him but IMO his value increase has been ridiculous.

 
Agree with Kerryon (probably #1) and Sanders.

I'll add AJ Brown. I'd be happy to own him but IMO his value increase has been ridiculous.
I think pre-draft he was the top rookie WR on many lists. Post-draft people hated the landing spot but a QB change made that a non-factor. I think the spike in value is more of an adjustment than a reaction. What's not to like?

 
FreeBaGeL said:
This one is not going to be popular and I'm not sure I would say "most" overrated, but I wonder where people think Nick Chubb is going to get the additional points to score anywhere in line with where people value him in dynasty.

Nick Chubb was 2nd in the NFL in rushing last year yet he still only finished as RB8 in fantasy scoring (assuming PPR), and RB12 in fantasy PPG.  He's not going to finish top 2 in rushing every year and even if he does, he was merely a low end RB1 while doing so.  To make the leap to be a guy scoring anywhere near what people are valuing him at he's either going to have to catch a lot more passes or score a lot more TDs.

Unless the Browns magically fight 30 years of disappointment and turn things around at just the right time I'm not seeing a big spike in TDs.  He could certainly increase from 8 but this isn't a team that's going to support a RB scoring the ~20ish TDs it would take to make him a top 5 back (he was 64 points behind RB5 in ppg last year which is the equivalent of almost 11 TDs).

Could he catch more passes?  I guess, maybe one day.  But his receiving usage really went into the toilet when Hunt came in last year.  He averaged just 1.3 catches per game when Hunt played.

It's dynasty so Hunt will be gone in a year but by then Chubb will be 25 and entering the season where he turns 26 which as we've seen lately can cause a guy to lose a lot of luster.  And it's not like I'm overly confident that Chubb will become a 60+ reception guy anyway.

He's young and talented, so I get that is a good bet in dynasty.  I'm just wondering what kind of realistic projections people are putting out there that could get last year's RB12 in PPG up to anywhere near the range that his value currently dictates when he only finished as RB12 despite Hunt missing half the year and Chubb finishing 2nd in the NFL in rushing.
I was negotiating for Chubb in one dynasty and backed off as the owner was wanting close to top 5 RB prices. As long as Hunt is there Chubb's pass catching takes a huge hit, and Hunt owners want too much for the handcuff. Chubb is a big avoid for me in redraft and a guy I would be targeting during the season (if there is one) in dynasty.

 
wgoldsph said:
Where do you find Cooper at 22nd overall?  Closest I can find him is 28th.

My picks would be rbs L Bell and k Johnson, who ADP calculator has at 33rd and 34 respectively.  They have guys like ekler (46) mack (48) and drake (53) who I'd prefer straight up over ten picks behind them.
Kerryon is still that high in startups? I can't give him away in existing leagues.

 
I think pre-draft he was the top rookie WR on many lists. Post-draft people hated the landing spot but a QB change made that a non-factor. I think the spike in value is more of an adjustment than a reaction. What's not to like?
I like him enough, I just think he's too high based on a handful of big games. Part of it is that I don't trust him to produce consistently in that offense and with Tannehill - he will have some big games like last year, but I think he'll be more inconsistent than his hype would suggest. Maybe I'm wrong but it just seems like the hype is out of control. 

 
I like him enough, I just think he's too high based on a handful of big games. Part of it is that I don't trust him to produce consistently in that offense and with Tannehill - he will have some big games like last year, but I think he'll be more inconsistent than his hype would suggest. Maybe I'm wrong but it just seems like the hype is out of control. 
Maybe we'll both be wrong but I'm in complete agreement.

 
I like him enough, I just think he's too high based on a handful of big games. Part of it is that I don't trust him to produce consistently in that offense and with Tannehill - he will have some big games like last year, but I think he'll be more inconsistent than his hype would suggest. Maybe I'm wrong but it just seems like the hype is out of control. 
Great best ball player imo. Not someone I'd target in most leagues. 

But I'm definitely a fan. 

 
I like him enough, I just think he's too high based on a handful of big games. Part of it is that I don't trust him to produce consistently in that offense and with Tannehill - he will have some big games like last year, but I think he'll be more inconsistent than his hype would suggest. Maybe I'm wrong but it just seems like the hype is out of control. 
I am extremely torn on AJB.  On the one hand I agree with you that I hate the situation and am very fearful of a major Tannehill regression and the inconsistency that run first offense brings for WRs.

On the other hand I am a 100% believer in the talent.  Physically he is big and very fast (his speed is way underrated because everyone was so distracted by Metcalf's combine from last year), and he has great hands and positioning.  He is one of the few guys that combines high athleticism with elite football skills.  Watching his rookie highlights reminds me so much of a young Julio Jones.

Given that we are talking dynasty about a position with a long shelf life I am tempted to just pay up to go get him in the leagues I don't have him, as I believe in him long term.  On the flipside I think waiting might also be prudent as his price could come down substantially if owners get frustrated with inconsistent performances or if Tannehill takes a big step back and things really fall off the rails.

 
Based on Fantasy Pros Dynasty Rankings as of 4/5, I'll give this a go:

1. DeAndre Hopkins (#4 overall, #2 WR)- Love the player but I'm simply not taking a WR changing teams in the top 5 overall. Murray improved as the season went on, but Watson he is not. NUK is still a first round pick, but move towards the back end.

2. Chris Godwin (#10 overall, #5 WR)- Brady is new, unknown how the WR pecking order will play out. It seems like Godwin's skill set is a better fir for Brady than Evans. Think the partnership will work out well but lean towards known QB/WR tandems in round #1. A hedge for safety.

3. Amari Cooper (#15 overall, #8 WR)- Gallup grew as the year went on, target share became more even. Cooper is slightly overvalued right now.

4. OBJ (#16 overall, #9 WR)- Jury is out. Chemistry with Mayfield, neither the most durable nor consistent player. Too many question marks to be drafted as a WR #1.

 
This one is not going to be popular and I'm not sure I would say "most" overrated, but I wonder where people think Nick Chubb is going to get the additional points to score anywhere in line with where people value him in dynasty.

Nick Chubb was 2nd in the NFL in rushing last year yet he still only finished as RB8 in fantasy scoring (assuming PPR), and RB12 in fantasy PPG.  He's not going to finish top 2 in rushing every year and even if he does, he was merely a low end RB1 while doing so.  To make the leap to be a guy scoring anywhere near what people are valuing him at he's either going to have to catch a lot more passes or score a lot more TDs.

Unless the Browns magically fight 30 years of disappointment and turn things around at just the right time I'm not seeing a big spike in TDs.  He could certainly increase from 8 but this isn't a team that's going to support a RB scoring the ~20ish TDs it would take to make him a top 5 back (he was 64 points behind RB5 in ppg last year which is the equivalent of almost 11 TDs).

Could he catch more passes?  I guess, maybe one day.  But his receiving usage really went into the toilet when Hunt came in last year.  He averaged just 1.3 catches per game when Hunt played.

It's dynasty so Hunt will be gone in a year but by then Chubb will be 25 and entering the season where he turns 26 which as we've seen lately can cause a guy to lose a lot of luster.  And it's not like I'm overly confident that Chubb will become a 60+ reception guy anyway.

He's young and talented, so I get that is a good bet in dynasty.  I'm just wondering what kind of realistic projections people are putting out there that could get last year's RB12 in PPG up to anywhere near the range that his value currently dictates when he only finished as RB12 despite Hunt missing half the year and Chubb finishing 2nd in the NFL in rushing.
I agree he's a bit high at RB7. I think RB12 seems about right. He was RB14 in PPR after Hunt returned, and that was with negative TD variance (he had 2 after Hunt returned, despite seeing about the same opportunity in the red zone). Stefanski seems to have a RB friendly system, and adding Conklin doesn't hurt either.

 
I agree he's a bit high at RB7. I think RB12 seems about right. He was RB14 in PPR after Hunt returned,


Weeks 10 to 16, with an active Hunt, Chubb was RB14. RB15 was Hunt. 
I think saying Chubb or Hunt were RB14 or or whatever during weeks 10-16 is a bit misleading and paints a much rosier picture.

Cleveland had already had their bye week, even removing injuries you had 10 RB's who averaged more PPG during either Browns RB during this timeframe that had not had their bye week.

I think it's far more accurate to look at average points per game from week 10-16 and if need be make an adjustment for a 1-2 game odd variance of a player. which in this case would be the one 16.2 game from Wes Hills.

During that 10-16 per game Chubb was RB20 and Hunt was RB23. I don't like to use week 17 but if you did it would move them back a bit more.

I feel comfortable tossing out Wes Hill's one game that moved both of them back up a spot. May sound like splitting hairs but to me both of these RB's were more like RB19 and RB22 during the time Hunt returned.

 
I think saying Chubb or Hunt were RB14 or or whatever during weeks 10-16 is a bit misleading and paints a much rosier picture.

Cleveland had already had their bye week, even removing injuries you had 10 RB's who averaged more PPG during either Browns RB during this timeframe that had not had their bye week.

I think it's far more accurate to look at average points per game from week 10-16 and if need be make an adjustment for a 1-2 game odd variance of a player. which in this case would be the one 16.2 game from Wes Hills.

During that 10-16 per game Chubb was RB20 and Hunt was RB23. I don't like to use week 17 but if you did it would move them back a bit more.

I feel comfortable tossing out Wes Hill's one game that moved both of them back up a spot. May sound like splitting hairs but to me both of these RB's were more like RB19 and RB22 during the time Hunt returned.
That's a good point. I admittedly didn't check for bye week before posting the number, and average ranking definitely moves down. To make up for my oversight, and because I am feeling unmotivated to work from home this fine Monday morning, I dug into the numbers a bit more.

I don't expect Chubb to get less carries than he got with Hunt there last year. He was on pace for 288 carries with Hunt, so let's say he gets 275 next year. I think it's a safe assumption that he'll continue to cede passing game work to Hunt. So TDs are going to be his bread and butter. Looking at his workload last year, there was negative TD variance affecting his numbers after Hunt returned, which I think had little to do with Hunt. According to this site he had 12 more red zone opportunities with Hunt active than he did with Hunt inactive. So the fact he had 6 rushing TDs in the 1st half of the season and 2 after Hunt came back seems flukey. On top of that, the offense was a special kind of dumpster fire last year (even for the Browns) which is unlikely to be repeated, especially if the OL is improved with the Conklin signing and potentially a draft pick added.

On the season, Chubb had a below average rate of TD/carries compared to other NFL starters (Chubb = 2.7%, average = 3.6%, from the same site I linked above). So if he gets a similar number of carries, and the OL/ overall offense improves, he likely gets at least 8 again.

Is it a good assumption that Stefanski uses Chubb and Hunt in about the same roles? For reference Dalvin Cook got 241 and Mattison got 100 carries in the 13 games they both played,  which lines up pretty close on average to the carries split in Cleveland. There's probably not as big a talent gap in Chubb vs. Hunt as there is Cook vs. Mattison. That said, Cook left early a couple of games, which swings carries more toward Mattison than would have happened if Cook stayed healthy. Plus,  I think Chubb is clearly better as a runner, and Hunt's strength is versatility, so I'd guess we see a similar split. 

I think it's reasonable to expect at least 275 carries, not much work in the passing game, and at least as many TDs as he had last year. That should be good for low RB1/ high RB2 numbers. I'd like the ceiling to be higher for RB7 in dynasty, so I'd take a Mixon, Fournette, or Taylor over him, and probably a guy like Ekeler too. I'm not sure who else should be moved above him. Jacobs and Henry? They seem to have the same concerns of not getting passing work. Aaron Jones? Maybe if he signs an extension with GB that shows they commit to him as a workhorse, but he either needs to continue exceeding the average TD rate by more than double, or get an increased workload. Sanders or another rookie are also in play, but I feel more comfortable with Chubb at this point. 

 

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