What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

How I see the top ten of the draft going (1 Viewer)

NorrisB

NorrisB

Footballguy
The Top ten I would say goes:

1. Bengals- Joe Burrow QB- I've heard the Dolphins are trying to move up to get him, it would probably take 3 first round picks and next years first just for the Bengals to pick up the phone. In the end they don't have that many needs as enticing an offer as Miami can make.

2. Redskins- Chase Young DE- They could trade down with Miami here. If it's less than 1.5+1.18+2.39 I think Washington takes Young. They can't risk losing him to NY and facing him twice a year.

3. Dolphins- Tua Tagovailoa QB- Everything I've read seems indicate the will move up for him. 

4. Giants- Isaiah Simmons LB- I think they would like to trade down with either the Dolphins or Raiders.

5.  Lions- Jeff Okudah CB- They could take Simmons  but CB is just a lot more valuable than an off ball LB.

6. Chargers: Justin Herbert QB- they need help at QB and this is a good landing spot for him.

7. Panthers: Andrew Thomas OT- Panthers would love to have Andrew Thomas fall here. 

8. Cardinals: OT Jedrick Wills- Cardinals take the #2 tackle and try and protect Murray better.

9. Jaguars: Derrick Brown DT- They need interior DL help badly.

10. Browns: Tristan Wirfs OT- He's stronger than Scherff broke his shot put record, they desperately need a tackle they may try to get Trent Williams from Washington as well. He's the best athlete of the three tackles but his fundamentals are raw and he has the most to work on.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
NorrisB said:
. 

4. Giants- Isaiah Simmons LB OT- I think they would like to trade down with either the Dolphins or Raiders.

5.  Lions- Jeff Okudah CB

They could take Simmons  but CB is just a lot more valuable than an off ball LB.

7. Panthers: Andrew Thomas OT- Panthers would love to have Andrew Thomas fall here. Supposedly more athletic than Thomas, but hasn't played LT at all and has shorter arms than Thomas. This is why the Giants would like to move down as there is no consensus who the top OT is. I say it's Andrew Thomas.
Click to expand...
It looks like you changed a few picks while writing. 

Overall it certainly could break down like you listed. 

 
I'm sure there are prob some that will disagree but I think the first two picks are nearly a given.  I don't think Wash will pass on Young unless they get a huge haul and I don't think anyone will pay it. I guess this isn't a groundbreaking statement, but pick 3 is the swing pick of the draft. Will someone trade up for Tua or not?  That's a tough one for me, I wouldn't do it because of injury concerns but some teams may think it's worth saying what the hell and rolling the dice.

 
-OZ- said:
It looks like you changed a few picks while writing. 

Overall it certainly could break down like you listed. 
Click to expand...
Changed my mind on what Detroit does.  I had them taking Simmons but that doesn't really make sense after the signings of Kearse and Collins, they also have Tracey Walker.  And they will probably take a trade with Miami as I don't see NYG passing on Simmons. 

 
Tool said:
I'm sure there are prob some that will disagree but I think the first two picks are nearly a given.  I don't think Wash will pass on Young unless they get a huge haul and I don't think anyone will pay it. I guess this isn't a groundbreaking statement, but pick 3 is the swing pick of the draft. Will someone trade up for Tua or not?  That's a tough one for me, I wouldn't do it because of injury concerns but some teams may think it's worth saying what the hell and rolling the dice.
Click to expand...
I think you're right. 

But, if I were running the Bengals, I'd take Young. Keep Dalton for another year, maybe get Hurts in the 2nd or trade up into the late first or wait a year. I'm not a Bengals fan, just think young will prove to be the more valuable player in a few years. 

 
NorrisB said:
The Top ten I would say goes:
Click to expand...
Pretty close to feelings I've had which is top 10 is going to be nothing but the  top 3-4 top D players, 3 QB's and 4 OT's and I think if that changes it's going to be removing Brown for another OT.

I am of the feeling right now that both Detriot and Giants are stuck at 3 and 4 and think it would take threat to Chargers or Dolphins of a team drafting after them trying to make aggressive move to jump them. At this point I'm inclined to think it does not happen and those teams will just sit at 5 and 6 and take Tua and Herbert.

I predict we don't see the first WR go until 12, maybe 11, but I'm sticking with 12 and then we'll see a little run.

 
-OZ- said:
I think you're right. 

But, if I were running the Bengals, I'd take Young. Keep Dalton for another year, maybe get Hurts in the 2nd or trade up into the late first or wait a year. I'm not a Bengals fan, just think young will prove to be the more valuable player in a few years. 
Click to expand...
You're a Lions fan right?  They pass on Simmons right?  I don't think the Bengals would trade the number 1 pick because Burrow would sell the most tickets and the needs they have can be found later.  

 
menobrown said:
Pretty close to feelings I've had which is top 10 is going to be nothing but the  top 3-4 top D players, 3 QB's and 4 OT's and I think if that changes it's going to be removing Brown for another OT.

I am of the feeling right now that both Detriot and Giants are stuck at 3 and 4 and think it would take threat to Chargers or Dolphins of a team drafting after them trying to make aggressive move to jump them. At this point I'm inclined to think it does not happen and those teams will just sit at 5 and 6 and take Tua and Herbert.

I predict we don't see the first WR go until 12, maybe 11, but I'm sticking with 12 and then we'll see a little run.
Click to expand...
If the 4 OTs go top 10, then the Jets will take a WR at 11 unless they trade down. I can't see any other option than OT-WR-trade.

 
gocats said:
You're a Lions fan right?  They pass on Simmons right?  I don't think the Bengals would trade the number 1 pick because Burrow would sell the most tickets and the needs they have can be found later.  
Click to expand...
Grew up near Detroit but Titans fan. 

I'm not talking about trading the 1, I'm saying take Young. Burrow is, in my opinion (Alabama fan too) probably at best an average starting QB. Maybe that's all Cincy wants, although I'm not even sure he's that. But Young could very well be a HOFer.  

Cincy is actually very well situated to take tua, and not need to play him immediately. I think tua will be better than burrow, but there's risk for sure.

 
gocats said:
You're a Lions fan right?  They pass on Simmons right?  I don't think the Bengals would trade the number 1 pick because Burrow would sell the most tickets and the needs they have can be found later.  
Click to expand...
Lions will likely take okudah if he’s there at 5 or they might take him at 3. Hope they trade down. Honestly I wouldn’t be terribly upset if they took Tua and sat him a year either, or took him because it gives them more leverage if Miami thinks they can take him at 5. Stafford has had a long career already, has had hits/injuries he’s played thru stack up, wife had cancer, now with the current CV19 situation, I think he could hang it up at a moments notice and we’re left hanging like Barry/Calvin or even like when we drafted Ebron over Donald and then lost suh/fairley. With this season increasingly in doubt it makes even more sense.  

 
Snorkelson said:
Lions will likely take okudah if he’s there at 5 or they might take him at 3. Hope they trade down. Honestly I wouldn’t be terribly upset if they took Tua and sat him a year either, or took him because it gives them more leverage if Miami thinks they can take him at 5. Stafford has had a long career already, has had hits/injuries he’s played thru stack up, wife had cancer, now with the current CV19 situation, I think he could hang it up at a moments notice and we’re left hanging like Barry/Calvin or even like when we drafted Ebron over Donald and then lost suh/fairley. With this season increasingly in doubt it makes even more sense.  
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

 
Snorkelson said:
Lions will likely take okudah if he’s there at 5 or they might take him at 3. Hope they trade down. Honestly I wouldn’t be terribly upset if they took Tua and sat him a year either, or took him because it gives them more leverage if Miami thinks they can take him at 5. Stafford has had a long career already, has had hits/injuries he’s played thru stack up, wife had cancer, now with the current CV19 situation, I think he could hang it up at a moments notice and we’re left hanging like Barry/Calvin or even like when we drafted Ebron over Donald and then lost suh/fairley. With this season increasingly in doubt it makes even more sense.  
Click to expand...
I haven't seen tua to Detroit discussed much but it makes a lot of sense. 

 
Other than Burrow at #1, I think it will be draft day before we know even the draft order.  WAS and DET are certainly willing to move out of their picks.  And they are likely playing them against each other.  I guess a trade for the WAS pick could come prior to the draft.  But a DET trade would not happen until draft day if WAS gets no takers and ends up drafting Young. Basically the #2 pick has to be completely sewn into place before anyone will trade with DET.  And all that obviously has a trickle down effect.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
DAG said:
This would make me really happy. This is a piece the team has been struggling to fix for years. 
Click to expand...
That was bound to happen when they signed Kalil to fix it.

Its not like the Vikings have solved their offensive line issues. Kalil was not good. Nepotism strikes again.

 
Biabreakable said:
That was bound to happen when they signed Kalil to fix it.

Its not like the Vikings have solved their offensive line issues. Kalil was not good. Nepotism strikes again.
Click to expand...
Exactly right. They keep throwing bad money and bad decisions at the problem. 

 
I'll bite.  My guess, which history proves will be totally wrong...

EDITED:   UPDATED PICK #2 trade scenario per Just Win Baby's good feedback...

1.     CIN – Joe Burrow, QB – obvious selection at this point

2.     LAC (from WAS) – Tua Tagovailoa, QB – LAC gets the #2 pick in exchange for picks #6 and 37 plus a mid round pick in 2021.  Tua becomes their QB of the future and gets to sit 8-16 games behind Tyrod. 

3.     DET – Chase Young, DE – DET considers some trades for this pick, but in the end snags a player that can make a huge impact for their defense.  Quite the get for DET IMO.

4.     JAX (from NYG) – Justin Hebert, QB – Yes I know Gettleman never trades down.  He does here.  JAX leaps MIA to select their QB of the future.  NYG gets picks #9 and 20.  JAX gets back NYG’s 3rd or 4th rounder.  Poor Hebert has to leave the west coast for JAX where he will unseat Minshew by week 8.

5.     MIA – Tristan Wirfs, OT – MIA moving up is a smoke show.  No desire to or they would have lost a lot more games at the end of last year.  They want all those picks they have.  If a QB falls to them, so be it.  They snag the top rated T to shore up the OL.   I'd project them looking at Jacob Eason (over Love) with a later pick.  Let him sit behind Fitz for a year.  By keeping pick 18 and 26 they can get some quality players there too.  Swift?  Delpit?

6.     WAS (from LAC) – Isiah Simmons, LB – Fills a much bigger need than Chase Young did.  Their LBs and CBs cannot tackle at all.  Simmons behind an already talented DL with a better def coordinator could be really solid.  Honestly the value to WAS is getting a 2nd rounder back to address TE, WR, LT or CB this year.  Cole Kmet?

7.     CAR – Derrick Brown, DT – I’m not sure how well he fits the scheme.  But Brown is the best player on the board and they do need DL help.

8.     LV (from ARI) – Jeff Okudah, CB - LV trades #12 and a 3rd rounder to move up and get a football player.  ARI will still be able to get their OT at #12. And LV still has #19 to address WR (Jefferson?)

9.     NYG (from JAX) – Jerry Jeudy, WR – They pass over a needed OT to get a solid weapon for Daniel Jones.  They can address OT with their extra pick at #20.  Here they go with Jeudy’s route running over Lamb’s possible huge upside.  Jones seems to be the type that needs to throw in rhythm and Jeudy is money for that.

10.  CLE – Andrew Thomas, OL – This guy has been falling slightly and I can’t tell why.  He was the #1 OL just a couple of months ago.  He’s still the most athletic OL in the draft, and great for the pass pro CLE needs

 
Last edited by a moderator:
-OZ- said:
Grew up near Detroit but Titans fan. 

I'm not talking about trading the 1, I'm saying take Young. Burrow is, in my opinion (Alabama fan too) probably at best an average starting QB. Maybe that's all Cincy wants, although I'm not even sure he's that. But Young could very well be a HOFer.  

Cincy is actually very well situated to take tua, and not need to play him immediately. I think tua will be better than burrow, but there's risk for sure.
Click to expand...
Disagree, Burrow made every team he faced look like a high school defense last year.

 
gocats said:
Disagree, Burrow made every team he faced look like a high school defense last year.
Click to expand...
Agree here.  I'm not even a huge Burrow fan, but the guy played awesome.  And if QBs like Burrow and Tua have even an iota of being a franchise QB, there's no option.  You have to take them.  Frankly if Snyder/Allen hadn't taken Haskins last year, Burrow at #1 and Tua at #2 would be automatic this year.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Brunell4MVP said:
2.     LAC (from WAS) – Tua Tagovailoa, QB – LAC gets the #2 pick and the rights to Trent Williams in exchange for picks #6 and 37 plus their 2021 first rounder which is likely a midrounder.  If you value Trent as a late 2nd the trade value math works out.  Williams fixes some of their OL woes for 3+ years  Tua becomes their QB of the future and gets to sit 8-16 games behind Tyrod.  And he gets Williams to protect him.
Click to expand...
The Chargers don't have the cap space for this. They would have to make other moves to free space. After accounting for draft picks, practice squad, IR replacements, and IR call-ups, they have around $10M in usable space, and Williams' 2020 cap hit is currently $14.5M.

More importantly, Williams is 31, has an injury history, and has a history of holding out. He says he held out over the medical situation, but most seem to think it was really about money/contract. The Chargers just got burned badly in a holdout situation last season.

Don't see him as a player the Chargers would trade for.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Just Win Baby said:
The Chargers don't have the cap space for this. They would have to make other moves to free space. After accounting for draft picks, practice squad, IR replacements, and IR call-ups, they have around $10M in usable space, and Williams' 2020 cap hit is currently $14.5M.

More importantly, Williams is 31, has an injury history, and has a history of holding out. He says he held out over the medical situation, but most seem to think it was really about money/contract. The Chargers just got burned badly in a holdout situation last season.

Don't see him as a player the Chargers would trade for.
Click to expand...
Good info.  I had seen they had $49M.  Must have been old data.  I'll have to adjust the final as we near.  I did this a couple months ago without WIlliams in the deal.  Just straight up #6 + 2nd rounder + mid level pick next year.  Skins have to move Williams at some point.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
gocats said:
Disagree, Burrow made every team he faced look like a high school defense last year.
Click to expand...


Brunell4MVP said:
Agree here.  I'm not even a huge Burrow fan, but the guy played awesome.  And if QBs like Burrow and Tua have even an iota of being a franchise QB, there's no option.  You have to take them.  Frankly if Snyder/Allen hadn't taken Haskins last year, Burrow at #1 and Tua at #2 would be automatic this year.
Click to expand...
We'll see. I think he'll be okay. Just not great.  And I really like Young.

 
Just Win Baby said:
The Chargers don't have the cap space for this. They would have to make other moves to free space. After accounting for draft picks, practice squad, IR replacements, and IR call-ups, they have around $10M in usable space, and Williams' 2020 cap hit is currently $14.5M.

More importantly, Williams is 31, has an injury history, and has a history of holding out. He says he held out over the medical situation, but most seem to think it was really about money/contract. The Chargers just got burned badly in a holdout situation last season.

Don't see him as a player the Chargers would trade for.
Click to expand...
Redskins would never trade down to 6 for a second rounder and a mid rounder next year, the #2 pick is worth 2600 pts, that's at best 2400 pts it would have be atleast a 21' first for them as well instead of the mid rounder, and I would probably decline if I were them.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
NorrisB said:
Redskins would never trade down to 6 for a second rounder and a mid rounder next year, the #2 pick is worth 2600 pts, that's at best 2400 pts it would have be atleast a 21' for them as well instead of the midrounder, and I would probably decline if I were them.
Click to expand...
That was my thoughts as well. They'd be crazy to deal the second pick for that deal.

 
Deranged Hermit said:
NorrisB said:
Redskins would never trade down to 6 for a second rounder and a mid rounder next year, the #2 pick is worth 2600 pts, that's at best 2400 pts it would have be atleast a 21' for them as well instead of the midrounder, and I would probably decline if I were them.
Click to expand...
That was my thoughts as well. They'd be crazy to deal the second pick for that deal.
Click to expand...
They'd be crazy to trade ...  Not even Dan Snyder... (sentence finishes itself)

If this is goes like an average draft we'll see trades in the first and I'm thinking at least one (possibly two) in the top-ten.

  1.  CIN – Joe Burrow, QB – We know who the pick is
  2. WAS – Chase Young, DE – No NFL GM is trading the opportunity to take Chase Young
  3. DET – Jeff Okudah, CB - I'd love to have a trade here but I ask if I am an NFL GM do I trade-up for an injury riddled QB?  No.
  4. NYG – Andrew Thomas, OT – Gettleman used top FA dollars on an over rated OLT.  Dire need, top talent falls into his lap, no need to overthink this one.
  5. MIA – Tua Tagovailoa, QB – Won't trade-up but if he falls into their lap?  Yeah.
  6. LAC – Justin Hebert, QB – Worst kept secret of the top-ten.
  7. CAR – Isiah Simmons, LB – Brown makes a ton of sense but Simmons is a hand-glove fit for team that lost Luke Kuechly.
  8. ARI – Tristan Wirfs, OT – Arizona gave up 50 sacks last year.  Could go Wills since Kyler is left handed so RT is his blind side.
  9. JAX – No one believes Minshew is the answer but would they take Love here?  I doubt it.  First trade could take place here.
  10. CLE – If Arizona takes Mills and if Wirfs or Thomas drops then they go here but if not then Cleveland is a good spot to speculate trade-down.
At least two blue-chip talents would be targets in DT Derrick Brown, WRs Ruggs,  Lamb, or Jeudy, top corner or edge, possibly one of the OTs or even a QB

 
-OZ- said:
Grew up near Detroit but Titans fan. 

I'm not talking about trading the 1, I'm saying take Young. Burrow is, in my opinion (Alabama fan too) probably at best an average starting QB. Maybe that's all Cincy wants, although I'm not even sure he's that. But Young could very well be a HOFer.  

Cincy is actually very well situated to take tua, and not need to play him immediately. I think tua will be better than burrow, but there's risk for sure.
Click to expand...
If you’re talking about Cincy’s needs and wants, you shouldn’t ignore that defensive line is easily the strongest part of their team currently. Hubbard was unreal last year, Dunlap has been pro bowl caliber for years, and if Lawson stays healthy he’s an awesome pass rusher. Inside they have Reader and Atkins so they won’t kick anyone inside regularly. Besides all the reasons you need a franchise QB more than a DE, this is a team more loaded than people realize at DL and desperate at QB based on last year. 

 
Brunell4MVP said:
I'll bite.  My guess, which history proves will be totally wrong...

4.     JAX (from NYG) – Justin Hebert, QB – Yes I know Gettleman never trades down.  He does here.  JAX leaps MIA to select their QB of the future.  NYG gets picks #9 and 20.  JAX gets back NYG’s 3rd or 4th rounder.  Poor Hebert has to leave the west coast for JAX where he will unseat Minshew by week 8.
Click to expand...
I don't see it.  The team has much bigger needs and I think they are willing to see if Minshew can improve on his rookie year before plunging in on a new QB.

 
Foosball God said:
I don't see it.  The team has much bigger needs and I think they are willing to see if Minshew can improve on his rookie year before plunging in on a new QB.
Click to expand...
Does DT Derrick Brown make sense?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Does anyone know what the different computer algorithm services are available to NFL teams for drafting?   So like at the start of the draft the info below comes up (my numbers won't add up right cause I'm just slapping this together in 5 mins as a demo).  Then once CIN picks all the odds update.

Mainly interested in knowing who provides these services?  Not feedback on how wrong any of the make believe %s I used are...

1.     CIN – 99% chance Joe Burrow, 1% trade

2.     WAS – 95% Chase Young, 5% trade

3.     DET – 70% Jeff Okudah, 20% trade , 5% Chase Young, 5% Isaiah Simmons

4.     NYG – 60% Tristan Wirfs, 15% another OT, 15% Isaiah Simmons, 10% trade

5.     MIA  - 60% Tua Tagovailoa, 30% Justin Hebert, 10% trade

6.     LAC – 60% Justin Hebert, 35% Tua Tagovailoa, 5% trade

7.     CAR – 55% Derrick Brown, 30% Jeff Okudah, 15% Isaiah Simmons

8.     ARI – 70% best OT in their book, 30% other

9.     JAX – 40% Derrick Brown, 40% OT, 20% WR

10.  CLE – 80% best OT in their book, 20% WR

etc

etc

 
Brunell4MVP said:
Does anyone know what the different computer algorithm services are available to NFL teams for drafting?   So like at the start of the draft the info below comes up (my numbers won't add up right cause I'm just slapping this together in 5 mins as a demo).  Then once CIN picks all the odds update.

Mainly interested in knowing who provides these services?  Not feedback on how wrong any of the make believe %s I used are...

1.     CIN – 99% chance Joe Burrow, 1% trade

2.     WAS – 95% Chase Young, 5% trade

3.     DET – 70% Jeff Okudah, 20% trade , 5% Chase Young, 5% Isaiah Simmons

4.     NYG – 60% Tristan Wirfs, 15% another OT, 15% Isaiah Simmons, 10% trade

5.     MIA  - 60% Tua Tagovailoa, 30% Justin Hebert, 10% trade

6.     LAC – 60% Justin Hebert, 35% Tua Tagovailoa, 5% trade

7.     CAR – 55% Derrick Brown, 30% Jeff Okudah, 15% Isaiah Simmons

8.     ARI – 70% best OT in their book, 30% other

9.     JAX – 40% Derrick Brown, 40% OT, 20% WR

10.  CLE – 80% best OT in their book, 20% WR

etc

etc
Click to expand...
What makes you think the Giants are going with Wirfs?

 
1.     CIN – 99% chance Joe Burrow, 1% trade

2.     WAS – 95% Chase Young, 5% trade

3.     DET – 70% Jeff Okudah, 20% trade , 5% Chase Young, 5% Isaiah Simmons

4.     NYG – 60% Simmons, 15%,  OT, 15% Isaiah Simmons, 10% trade

5.     MIA  - 60% Tua Tagovailoa, 30% Justin Hebert, 10% trade

6.     LAC – 60% Justin Hebert, 35% Tua Tagovailoa, 5% trade

7.     CAR – 55% Derrick Brown, 30% Jeff Okudah, 15% Isaiah Simmons

8.     ARI – 70% best OT in their book, 30% other

9.     JAX – 40% Derrick Brown, 40% OT, 20% WR

10.  CLE – 80% best OT in their book, 20% WR

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Just Win Baby said:
The Chargers don't have the cap space for this. They would have to make other moves to free space. After accounting for draft picks, practice squad, IR replacements, and IR call-ups, they have around $10M in usable space, and Williams' 2020 cap hit is currently $14.5M.

More importantly, Williams is 31, has an injury history, and has a history of holding out. He says he held out over the medical situation, but most seem to think it was really about money/contract. The Chargers just got burned badly in a holdout situation last season.

Don't see him as a player the Chargers would trade for.
Click to expand...
According to over the cap you guys have $21M in cap room, what am I missing?

 
NorrisB said:
According to over the cap you guys have $21M in cap room, what am I missing?
Click to expand...
~$9.5M for the current draft picks, assuming all make the final roster

~$2.1M for the practice squad

~$1M for practice squad call-ups in season, enabled by new CBA

~$4M for in season injury replacements

Less the minimum salaries of those the draft picks would push out of the top 53 (~$3.4M)

Of course, they can do stuff to free up more space, like extend Allen, Ingram, Bosa, Henry, and/or Tyrod and lower their 2020 cap hits in doing so. I doubt there will be any more cap casualties, but I suppose Virgil Green could be.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Yogibear
Yogi's Projected 1st Round of the 2023 NFL Draft
Replies
3
Views
856
Dr. Octopus
Dr. Octopus
T
Travdogg's pre-combine mock draft
2
Replies
52
Views
2K
(HULK)
(HULK)
Ministry of Pain
Atlanta Falcons Offense '24- WR/RB/TE/QB and the OL
Replies
3
Views
179
zamboni
zamboni

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top