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Austin Hooper vs. Hayden Hurst (1 Viewer)

Who will score more fantasy points over the next two seasons?

  • Austin Hooper, TE, CLE

    Votes: 24 21.1%
  • Hayden Hurst, TE, ATL

    Votes: 90 78.9%

  • Total voters
    114

ZWK

Footballguy
Did Austin Hooper have a big year because he's Austin Hooper, or because he was TE Falcons? Who do you like more going forward, Browns' TE Austin Hooper or the new TE Falcons, Hayden Hurst?

 
Browns will in likelihood utilize a LOT of 2 TE sets, as stefanski apparently led the league in that usage last season, implementing it 50% of the time.

Njoku is a monster athlete w some hand issues... But a legitimate redzone threat that will, along w obj, chubb and landry, zap Hooper's fantasy value.

Hurst looks poised to slot right in and resume what Hooper was doing in ATL... Let's be real here... they gave up a SECOND rounder for him... now go look at his production... minimal.

They wanted him in the draft, and when hooper left they gave up big capital to get him.

For fantasy purposes, Hurst, 100%. But I absolutely LOVE the signing for the browns.

 
I think both are true when it comes to Hooper. He's a good pass catcher, though not a seam stretcher, and he benefited from Julio/Ridley taking coverage, of course in theory, that should still apply with Beckham/Landry. I do think Mayfield really missed having that guy with size in the middle of the field last year. I also think based on the contract, and the quickness with which Hooper was signed, that Njoku is the very clear #2 TE in Cleveland.

Hurst is still pretty unproven, and I doubt he'll be as effective as Hooper was in 2019, however he'll still be a viable fantasy TE. I think some of Hooper's production might shift to Ridley as he's entering year 3, and may see more slot work with no Hooper/Sanu around.

As of right now, I'd have Hooper around TE8 and Hurst around TE14. 

 
Hooper seemed like he was more situation than talent. He pretty much goes into the Kyle Rudolph range for me after this. 

I don't think Hurst is any special talent, but I also don't think he's any worse than Hooper. He should step right into close to Hooper's role, especially considering what the Falcons gave up. It's crazy to me they preferred giving up a 2nd vs. just paying Hooper. 

 
Hooper seemed like he was more situation than talent. He pretty much goes into the Kyle Rudolph range for me after this. 

I don't think Hurst is any special talent, but I also don't think he's any worse than Hooper. He should step right into close to Hooper's role, especially considering what the Falcons gave up. It's crazy to me they preferred giving up a 2nd vs. just paying Hooper. 
Giving up the 2nd made sense financially.  Hooper is making 11 million per year, while they get Hurst at 3.4 million over the next two years then the Falcons get an option year if they want it. They basically get three years of Hurst for the price of one year of Hooper.  They could easily walk away from a 30 year old Hurst if his contract demands are too high.

 
Giving up the 2nd made sense financially.  Hooper is making 11 million per year, while they get Hurst at 3.4 million over the next two years then the Falcons get an option year if they want it. They basically get three years of Hurst for the price of one year of Hooper.  They could easily walk away from a 30 year old Hurst if his contract demands are too high.
If you only look at finances it makes sense, but that ignores the opportunity cost of the pick. Tagging Hooper at $11m and having the 55th pick under contract cheap for 4 years seems like way more value. 

 
Falcons wanted to pick Hurst in round one but got jumped by Ravens. Made absolutely zero effort to resign Hooper or even try and franchise tag and trade him in a depressed TE market and then went out and paid solid draft capital for Hurst.

I think the Falcons believe Hurst is the better player. They may be wrong, but I think it's what they believe and seem to believe it enough to feel comfortable replacing a known commodity who had a strong relationship with Ryan with an unknown.

But for other reasons I  go with Hurst. Jarvis Landry who I think is still a much better slot then outside WR and will eat into a little of the over the middle work that would go to the TE's. I feel like Julio/Ridley open up the field for Hurst more then Odell/Landry. I think Gurley's knee is shot and Browns have the best 1-2 RB group in the league, which in theory should lead to more rushing for Browns. Matt Ryan is 35, was never as mobile as Baker, think he needs outlet to get rid of the ball quickly where Baker might be inclined to try and buy some time. While I agree Njoku should be viewed as the #2,  he's not much of a blocker so I think he does cut into Hooper assuming he's back for one year.

Those are for the most part all relatively small things but added up I really favor Hurst.

 
If you only look at finances it makes sense, but that ignores the opportunity cost of the pick. Tagging Hooper at $11m and having the 55th pick under contract cheap for 4 years seems like way more value. 
The other side of the coin is that you pick Hurst who you have a better idea of how he might fit on the team because he has NFL film and 9 million in cap space to spend elsewhere vs resigning Hooper and getting an unproven 2nd round pick who may or may not be a valuable piece.

 
I voted for Hurst, along with about 70% of the responses so far. I think that Hooper's production had more to do with the Atlanta offense than with Hooper's skills, and that Hurst has looked about as good as Hooper (though in a more limited role) and is likely to step right in where Hooper left off.

It's interesting because most of the redraft and dynasty rankings and ADPs that I see out there still have Hooper ahead of Hurst. That includes the 2020 projections from Dodds and the dynasty rankings from Dan Hindery & Bruce Hammond. So far, Mike Tagliere's 2020 redraft rankings are the only place that I've seen Hurst ahead of Hooper.

 
Count me among those that think Hurst will outperform Hooper if healthy. One thing we don't know, though. How will Baker Mayfield react to a healthy and quality TE? He didn't have Njoku for almost all of last year. Maybe Hooper becomes his wubby (security blanket) when he's pressured or needs a play. 

 
I voted for Hurst, along with about 70% of the responses so far. I think that Hooper's production had more to do with the Atlanta offense than with Hooper's skills, and that Hurst has looked about as good as Hooper (though in a more limited role) and is likely to step right in where Hooper left off.

It's interesting because most of the redraft and dynasty rankings and ADPs that I see out there still have Hooper ahead of Hurst. That includes the 2020 projections from Dodds and the dynasty rankings from Dan Hindery & Bruce Hammond. So far, Mike Tagliere's 2020 redraft rankings are the only place that I've seen Hurst ahead of Hooper.
I too think Hurst will outperform Hooper because of the QB play.  But I'd still take Hooper in dynasty, because he almost two years younger and has two years more experience.  I don't think difference in production will be big enough to make up for that.

 
Nero said:
I too think Hurst will outperform Hooper because of the QB play.  But I'd still take Hooper in dynasty, because he almost two years younger and has two years more experience.  I don't think difference in production will be big enough to make up for that.
Hooper is a year and two months younger - that shouldn't play a huge factor.

 
Browns will in likelihood utilize a LOT of 2 TE sets, as stefanski apparently led the league in that usage last season, implementing it 50% of the time.

Njoku is a monster athlete w some hand issues... But a legitimate redzone threat that will, along w obj, chubb and landry, zap Hooper's fantasy value.

Hurst looks poised to slot right in and resume what Hooper was doing in ATL... Let's be real here... they gave up a SECOND rounder for him... now go look at his production... minimal.

They wanted him in the draft, and when hooper left they gave up big capital to get him.

For fantasy purposes, Hurst, 100%. But I absolutely LOVE the signing for the browns.
Is Stefanski going to call plays?

 
Last season the Falcons threw the ball 684 times and ran the ball 362 times. This inbalanced even in the pass heavy NFL.

While Hooper is a fine player I think a lot of his targets came in situations where he was the dump off outlet and defenses were letting the Falcons have that while protecting a lead. It was a substitution for running the ball at times, as far as the frequency of the pass attempts.

The Browns threw the ball 539 times last year and they have two very good RB. I think they will lean on that strength and Mayfield might throw 550 times this season, but not much more than that.

Hooper had what may be a career season for him last year. He averaged 7.5 targets per game in the 13 games he played. That is on pace for 120 targets in 16 games. I wouldn't expect him to get that even if he stayed with the Falcons. 

I am not sure how well Hayden Hurst will do with the Falcons. Good chance he has more opportunities than Hooper will but is he really that good? 

I think I would go with the opportunity so Hurst but I am not confident about it at all.

 
don't know how things will be implemented, but im sure even if he doesnt, he'd have a pretty big say in what he wants to see. 

Dont see why else theyd have both njoku and hooper rostered
I see the OC is Alex Van Pelt and from what I read they haven't decided on who will call plays yet. It depends on if they hire a QB coach?

Did they hire a QB coach?

I just see Stefanski as an open minded coach who will implement a system to his personnel. Van Pelt has been with the Packers the last 4 years. He may have some different ideas. I don't expect the Browns offense to be a cookie cutter of what the Vikings did last year. A lot of that was influenced by Kubiak and also Thielen missed 6 games and one of those games he only was on the field for 3 plays.

 
Did Austin Hooper have a big year because he's Austin Hooper, or because he was TE Falcons? Who do you like more going forward, Browns' TE Austin Hooper or the new TE Falcons, Hayden Hurst?
Excellent question and poll.  I favor Hurst.  As others have said, the Atl situation appears to offer higher target volume and let's not forget that Hurst was a first round draft pick while Hooper was a 3rd rounder.

 
The Falcons drafted zero offensive skill position players in the NFL Draft.

The Browns drafted TE Harrison Bryant & WR Donovan Peoples-Jones.

They also exercised the fifth-year option on David Njoku. 

I like Hayden Hurst’s chances of outperforming Austin Hooper in 2020.

 
Voted Hurst for the two main reasons others have mentioned: less competition for touches and a weaker rushing attack. 

 
Hurst is a good talent who got blocked by injury in his rookie year and Andrews unexpectedly becoming a Pro Bowler.

I expect nice things in ATL and will definitely be grabbing him in redraft.

 
If Stidham is the Rodney Dangerfield of QBs, for TE it's Hooper. I know Atlanta is a great offense and all, but Hooper is the first TE with good stats they've had since Tony Gonzalez left in 2013. It's not really fair to take away from Hooper imo because he played for the Falcons. He's a good player.

 
Hooper owner. The only reason Hurst won't put up Hooper  2019 #s this year is familiarity with Ryan. Hooper is in the same boat with Mayfield and I may switch to Hurst because I know Matt Ryan will target him. 

 
The Falcons were looking for the Replacement for Tony Gonzalez when Hooper stuck.  Hooper was the poor man's TG.  

Hurst is a faster, a more natural receiver than either Hooper or Gonzalez.  

Hurst may blow up in this role.  He may finally actually be the replacement for Gonzalez in this offense.

 
Hurst is the easy choice here.  We don't know how Mayfield will utilize the TE.  Plus, CLE will be a run-first team through Chubb, plus you have OBJ and Landry soaking up most of the targets.  So you go with the team who will likely throw the ball 600+ times....ATL. 

 
The Falcons were looking for the Replacement for Tony Gonzalez when Hooper stuck.  Hooper was the poor man's TG.  

Hurst is a faster, a more natural receiver than either Hooper or Gonzalez.  

Hurst may blow up in this role.  He may finally actually be the replacement for Gonzalez in this offense.
🤔 Maybe I'm misremembering Tony G's skills, but I can't say I've seen anything from Hurst to say he's a more natural receiver.

On Hurst vs. Hooper, Hooper just went 3 round higher in a 2PPR TE premium startup I'm in. I couldn't believe it (I got Hurst in round 10).

 
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🤔 Maybe I'm misremembering Tony G's skills, but I can't say I've seen anything from Hurst to say he's a more natural receiver.

On Hurst vs. Hooper, Hooper just went 3 round higher in a 2PPR TE premium startup I'm in. I couldn't believe it (I got Hurst in round 10).
Nice grab on Hurst. 

I meant no slight on HOF TE Tony G.  But, IMO he was more of a converted basketball player who benefited from size mismatches when he played for KC. He developed into a great receiver also, but early on I remember him as a end zone jump ball specialist.  

IMO As a prospect out of college, Hurst had a different gear of speed than Tony G did and a more complete route tree.  At this point in his career with KC, I don't remember Gonzalez having Hurst's ability or skills as a receiver.  I think Hurst may turn out to be something in Atlanta.  

 
I voted for Hurst, along with about 70% of the responses so far. I think that Hooper's production had more to do with the Atlanta offense than with Hooper's skills, and that Hurst has looked about as good as Hooper (though in a more limited role) and is likely to step right in where Hooper left off.

It's interesting because most of the redraft and dynasty rankings and ADPs that I see out there still have Hooper ahead of Hurst. That includes the 2020 projections from Dodds and the dynasty rankings from Dan Hindery & Bruce Hammond. So far, Mike Tagliere's 2020 redraft rankings are the only place that I've seen Hurst ahead of Hooper.
FBG staff are now evenly divided between Hurst & Hooper in their redraft rankings, with 7 of the 14 staff favoring each, and Hurst comes in one spot ahead of Hooper in the average. So there has been some movement in favor of Hurst, even though Hooper is still favored in more of the places that I've checked. Meanwhile our poll is now up to 79% in favor of Hurst with 87 votes in.

 
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Hurst would be my choice, staying away from Hooper, don’t like his new home for fantasy.  Hurst should be pretty consistent with the Falcons.

 
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Hurst is one of the best values headed into the 2020 season. Most “experts” have him as a late round lottery ticket. I think dude is a stud who will quickly become Ryan’s second favorite target. He’s got good hands, run solid routes, has some speed & decent size.

i’m a little bit sad I dealt him away in dynasty a couple weeks ago as I think he has a big year. 

 
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Hurst is a much better athlete than Hooper and a good blocker. The only reason Baltimore dealt him is he was blocked by Andrews and Boyle (bigger, better blocker) and the price was too high to pass on. The ATL offense that fed targets to Hooper... even if he gets the same amount of targets Hurst is a guy than can do more with them. Only the immortal Jaeden Graham is Hurst's competition for snaps right now.

 
Hurst is one of the best values headed into the 2020 season. Most “experts” have him as a late round lottery ticket. I think dude is a stud who will quickly become Ryan’s second favorite target. He’s got good hands, run solid routes, has some speed & decent size.

i’m a little bit sad I dealt him away in dynasty a couple weeks ago as I think he has a big year. 
What did you get for him?

 
Hurst is a much better athlete than Hooper and a good blocker. The only reason Baltimore dealt him is he was blocked by Andrews and Boyle (bigger, better blocker) and the price was too high to pass on. The ATL offense that fed targets to Hooper... even if he gets the same amount of targets Hurst is a guy than can do more with them. Only the immortal Jaeden Graham is Hurst's competition for snaps right now.
This. If he has 100 targets as I think he will, he’s probably a 75/900/7 guy in that offense. 

 
This. If he has 100 targets as I think he will, he’s probably a 75/900/7 guy in that offense. 
I realize this may not matter to you as you traded Hurst away, but I think this projection is overly optimistic.

In previous post you stated you think Hurst will be the Falcons 2nd most targeted player. I think that is very unlikely as Calvin Ridley is the player I would expect to be in that position, not Hurst.

The Falcons traded away Mohammed Sanu last season and that is part of the reason for the spike in targets for Hooper last season. In addition the Falcons could not run the ball, causing them to throw 684 times. From 2016 to 2018 the Falcons have averaged 561 pass attempts. 2019 was 120 targets more than this average. If I use a 3 year average of 2017 to 2019 I get 610 passing attempts.

In 2018 when the Falcons had Julio Sanu and Ridley, Hooper was their 4th most targeted player.at 88 targets over 16 games.

The Falcons added Todd Gurley who may be a shadow of his former self but is still an upgrade over Freeman, Brian Hill and Ito Smith last year. He will get targets in the passing game that otherwise may have been a dump off to the TE.

Hurst has a career catch rate of 69.4% so at 100 targets that would be 69 receptions. He has 11.9 yards per reception so 821 yards. Hurst has a career yards per target of 8.3 so this would be 830 yards on 100 targets. 

I think Hurst sees something more like 90 targets in 2020 with career averages that means 62 receptions 743 yards  TD I don't know. Hurst has 3 TD so far in 2 years.

 
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I am as guilty of it as anyone but man it just seems like the lack of any hype for Hooper is weird.

The guy came out with a decent amount of hype for a day 2 pick, about as much as usual for these guys.  The difference is that unlike most of them he followed basically the EXACT prototypical path that people look for in a developing TE.  He got better every year with a strong 2nd year, into a really strong 3rd year and then into a huge breakout in year 4.

He just cooled off as a name so much in fantasy circles while doing it.

It's like imagine that I told you that Ian Thomas or Jonnu Smith were going to go for 71-660-4 this year and then be a top 3 TE in 2021 and no one was really going to care about them and they were barely going to crack the top 10 TE rankings.  It seems like that wouldn't be possible, but that's basically exactly what we have with Hooper.  Granted the team change obviously complicates things but it's still interesting.

 
Biabreakable said:
I realize this may not matter to you as you traded Hurst away, but I think this projection is overly optimistic.

In previous post you stated you think Hurst will be the Falcons 2nd most targeted player. I think that is very unlikely as Calvin Ridley is the player I would expect to be in that position, not Hurst.

The Falcons traded away Mohammed Sanu last season and that is part of the reason for the spike in targets for Hooper last season. In addition the Falcons could not run the ball, causing them to throw 684 times. From 2016 to 2018 the Falcons have averaged 561 pass attempts. 2019 was 120 targets more than this average. If I use a 3 year average of 2017 to 2019 I get 610 passing attempts.

In 2018 when the Falcons had Julio Sanu and Ridley, Hooper was their 4th most targeted player.at 88 targets over 16 games.

The Falcons added Todd Gurley who may be a shadow of his former self but is still an upgrade over Freeman, Brian Hill and Ito Smith last year. He will get targets in the passing game that otherwise may have been a dump off to the TE.

Hurst has a career catch rate of 69.4% so at 100 targets that would be 69 receptions. He has 11.9 yards per reception so 821 yards. Hurst has a career yards per target of 8.3 so this would be 830 yards on 100 targets. 

I think Hurst sees something more like 90 targets in 2020 with career averages that means 62 receptions 743 yards  TD I don't know. Hurst has 3 TD so far in 2 years.
We all have our takes. I am a believer. Dude’s a baller & was severely under-utilized in Baltimore. He runs good routes, has good hands, and is already working out with Ryan, who loves him some TEs. 

Hand in hand with this is that I think Ridley is a bit overrated. He has upside, but he hasn’t really shown me consistency. He faded badly after a hot start, he’s not big in the red zone, & he seemed to get bullied by DBs & thrown off his routes in the games I watched.

again, just my opinion. Others may watch Ridley and see a better player. I don’t think he’s lived up to the hype yet.

Maybe 2020 is his year & I’m dead wrong. A lot will depend on what kind of chemistry Ryan & Hurst develop. We’ll see what happens. 

And yeah, I say all this with no skin in the game as I sold my only share. 

 
We all have our takes. I am a believer. Dude’s a baller & was severely under-utilized in Baltimore. He runs good routes, has good hands, and is already working out with Ryan, who loves him some TEs. 

Hand in hand with this is that I think Ridley is a bit overrated. He has upside, but he hasn’t really shown me consistency. He faded badly after a hot start, he’s not big in the red zone, & he seemed to get bullied by DBs & thrown off his routes in the games I watched.

again, just my opinion. Others may watch Ridley and see a better player. I don’t think he’s lived up to the hype yet.

Maybe 2020 is his year & I’m dead wrong. A lot will depend on what kind of chemistry Ryan & Hurst develop. We’ll see what happens. 

And yeah, I say all this with no skin in the game as I sold my only share. 
Ridley was injured last season. He missed 3 games with an abdominal injury at the end of the season. He had a toe injury that he was playing through earlier on in the season according to this article, that he had begun to recover from and play better before the injury against the Panthers.

Ridley has played 2 seasons and he has 17 TD already. He was on pace for 115 targets last year. He has an excellent 9.1 yards per target so far in his career and the coaches stated the reason they traded Sanu is because they thought Ridley was ready to be their 2nd WR and take his place in the offense.

I am wary of any projection for Hurst because their is so little data to work with its a fools errand. I am not comfortable with just penciling in Hoopers opportunity for Hurst when he has already been outplayed by two other TE on his previous team.

I am also wary of drafting players based on opportunity alone. That often does not go very well.

All of that said I still would likely take Hurst over Hooper. I just think Hooper is similar to Kyle Rudolph, coming off of a career year and his numbers will be a lot less in Cleveland.

 
Ridley was injured last season. He missed 3 games with an abdominal injury at the end of the season. He had a toe injury that he was playing through earlier on in the season according to this article, that he had begun to recover from and play better before the injury against the Panthers.

Ridley has played 2 seasons and he has 17 TD already. He was on pace for 115 targets last year. He has an excellent 9.1 yards per target so far in his career and the coaches stated the reason they traded Sanu is because they thought Ridley was ready to be their 2nd WR and take his place in the offense.

I am wary of any projection for Hurst because their is so little data to work with its a fools errand. I am not comfortable with just penciling in Hoopers opportunity for Hurst when he has already been outplayed by two other TE on his previous team.

I am also wary of drafting players based on opportunity alone. That often does not go very well.

All of that said I still would likely take Hurst over Hooper. I just think Hooper is similar to Kyle Rudolph, coming off of a career year and his numbers will be a lot less in Cleveland.
All fair points. 

in redraft I take the “luck favors the bold” approach, so I’ll boldly project for  relatively unknown based on the eye test. 

if he comes within 80% of my projections as a late round value pick, I’ll be psyched. 

 
Biabreakable said:
In previous post you stated you think Hurst will be the Falcons 2nd most targeted player. I think that is very unlikely as Calvin Ridley is the player I would expect to be in that position, not Hurst.
Agree with this.

Biabreakable said:
The Falcons traded away Mohammed Sanu last season and that is part of the reason for the spike in targets for Hooper last season.
At face value, it doesn't look like it. Sanu was traded after game 7. In the first 7 games, Hooper averaged 7.9 targets per game. In the other 6 games he played, he averaged 7.0 targets per game. He did miss 3 games in there due to a MCL sprain, but he had 6 targets in his first game back, so it isn't clear if his targets were depressed at all due to the injury.

It was Gage whose targets spiked big time after the trade.

Biabreakable said:
In addition the Falcons could not run the ball, causing them to throw 684 times. From 2016 to 2018 the Falcons have averaged 561 pass attempts. 2019 was 120 targets more than this average. If I use a 3 year average of 2017 to 2019 I get 610 passing attempts.

In 2018 when the Falcons had Julio Sanu and Ridley, Hooper was their 4th most targeted player.at 88 targets over 16 games.

The Falcons added Todd Gurley who may be a shadow of his former self but is still an upgrade over Freeman, Brian Hill and Ito Smith last year. He will get targets in the passing game that otherwise may have been a dump off to the TE.
These are good points.

Biabreakable said:
Hurst has a career catch rate of 69.4% so at 100 targets that would be 69 receptions. He has 11.9 yards per reception so 821 yards. Hurst has a career yards per target of 8.3 so this would be 830 yards on 100 targets. 

I think Hurst sees something more like 90 targets in 2020 with career averages that means 62 receptions 743 yards  TD I don't know. Hurst has 3 TD so far in 2 years.
But Hurst is entering his third season, and his second was quite a bit better than his first. He will also be playing with a better passer than either Flacco or Jackson. I'm not sure limiting him to his career averages is appropriate.

 
Agree with this.

At face value, it doesn't look like it. Sanu was traded after game 7. In the first 7 games, Hooper averaged 7.9 targets per game. In the other 6 games he played, he averaged 7.0 targets per game. He did miss 3 games in there due to a MCL sprain, but he had 6 targets in his first game back, so it isn't clear if his targets were depressed at all due to the injury.

It was Gage whose targets spiked big time after the trade.

These are good points.

But Hurst is entering his third season, and his second was quite a bit better than his first. He will also be playing with a better passer than either Flacco or Jackson. I'm not sure limiting him to his career averages is appropriate.
In regards to Gage getting more action that's true, but Gage not as much of a threat as Sanu, and Ridley moved to number two WR.

What would be an alternative to using Hurst career averages?

 
Hooper’s early career numbers? Not last year’s targets, no. But what did his first two years in Atlanta look like?


Austin Hooper first two seasons 92 targets 68 receptions 797 yards 6 TD 73.9% catch rate 8.6 yards per target

Hayden Hurst first two seasons 62 targets 43 receptions 512 yards 3 TD 69.4% catch rate 8.3 yards per target

So Hooper was better in catch rate and yards per target in his first two seasons on higher volume of targets than Hurst had. Fewer the targets better the efficiency generally.

Last season the Ravens played 3 TE extensively

Nick Boyle played 769 offensive snaps 43 targets 31 receptions 321 yards 2 TD 72% catch rate 7.5 yards per target

Hatden Hurst played 457 offensive snaps 39 targets 30 receptions 349 yards 2 TD 76.9% catch rate 8.9 yards per target

Mark Andrews okyed on 457 offensive snaps 98 targets 64 receptions 852 yards 10 TD 65.3% catch rate 8.7 yards per target

So while Hurst does seem to be a better receiving option than Nick Boyle as far as efficiency stats he obviously isn't as good of a blocker and Boyle is. Hell Boyle played more snaps than the Ravens center did. 

Mark Andrews is the better receiver here, Targeted over twice as much as Hurst on the same number of offensive snaps.

So where does this put Hurst?

Not as good a receiver as Hooper or Andrews. Hurst is a better receiver than Nick Boyle.

 
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Austin Hooper first two seasons 92 targets 68 receptions 797 yards 6 TD 73.9% catch rate 8.6 yards per target

Hayden Hurst first two seasons 62 targets 43 receptions 512 yards 3 TD 69.4% catch rate 8.3 yards per target

So Hooper was better in catch rate and yards per target in his first two seasons on higher volume of targets than Hurst had. Fewer the targets better the efficiency generally.

Last season the Ravens played 3 TE extensively

Nick Boyle played 769 offensive snaps 43 targets 31 receptions 321 yards 2 TD 72% catch rate 7.5 yards per target

Hatden Hurst played 457 offensive snaps 39 targets 30 receptions 349 yards 2 TD 76.9% catch rate 8.9 yards per target

Mark Andrews okyed on 457 offensive snaps 98 targets 64 receptions 852 yards 10 TD 65.3% catch rate 8.7 yards per target

So while Hurst does seem to be a better receiving option than Nick Boyle as far as efficiency stats he obviously isn't as good of a blocker and Boyle is. Hell Boyle played more snaps than the Ravens center did. 

Mark Andrews is the better receiver here, Targeted over twice as much as Hurst on the same number of offensive snaps.

So where does this put Hurst?

Not as good a receiver as Hooper or Andrews. Hurst is a better receiver than Nick Boyle.
Per PFF for 2019:

  • Boyle - 795 snaps (73.1 overall grade), 243 passing (65.0), 59 pass blocking (68.9), 493 run blocking (75.4)
  • Andrews - 503 snaps (88.5), 347 passing (87.8), 7 pass blocking (61.1), 149 run blocking (66.5)
  • Hurst - 500 snaps (73.1), 255 passing (77.3), 4 pass blocking (72.1), 241 run blocking (51.3)
For comparison (2019): Hooper - 724 snaps (78.3 overall grade), 511 passing (80.5), 35 pass blocking (65.0), 178 run blocking (56.2)

Of course, Hurst was in his second season, while Hooper was in his fourth. So a bit of apples and oranges there. But looking at Hooper's snaps, looks like Hurst probably will run routes a lot more than he will block, which suits his strengths.

IMO there is no shame in not beating out Andrews for passing game snaps, and Boyle is basically a blocker, so I don't think he is particularly relevant to the discussion.

Hurst has no competition for passing game snaps at TE. I fully expect he will get more snaps than Hooper did if healthy, given Hooper missed 3 games due to injury. I get that the ATL passing attempts may come down, but I think he could easily average 5.6 targets per game if healthy - 90 targets (Hooper averaged 7.5 per game last season in 13 games, only starting 10 games). There is certainly ceiling beyond that.

I expect he will either have a higher catch rate and similar YPC/YPT or maintain his catch rate with higher YPC/YPT, due to playing with a better QB in a stronger passing offense. And I certainly think his TDs will go up - Hooper had 10 on 185 targets over the past 2 seasons... so it seems reasonable to project Hurst with 5 on 90 targets.

Add it all up, and, even with a significant reduction in passing attempts, I would project something like 90 targets, 69 receptions, 760 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs. In PPR, that would have ranked #7 in total points last season.

 
Per PFF for 2019:

  • Boyle - 795 snaps (73.1 overall grade), 243 passing (65.0), 59 pass blocking (68.9), 493 run blocking (75.4)
  • Andrews - 503 snaps (88.5), 347 passing (87.8), 7 pass blocking (61.1), 149 run blocking (66.5)
  • Hurst - 500 snaps (73.1), 255 passing (77.3), 4 pass blocking (72.1), 241 run blocking (51.3)
For comparison (2019): Hooper - 724 snaps (78.3 overall grade), 511 passing (80.5), 35 pass blocking (65.0), 178 run blocking (56.2)

Of course, Hurst was in his second season, while Hooper was in his fourth. So a bit of apples and oranges there. But looking at Hooper's snaps, looks like Hurst probably will run routes a lot more than he will block, which suits his strengths.

IMO there is no shame in not beating out Andrews for passing game snaps, and Boyle is basically a blocker, so I don't think he is particularly relevant to the discussion.

Hurst has no competition for passing game snaps at TE. I fully expect he will get more snaps than Hooper did if healthy, given Hooper missed 3 games due to injury. I get that the ATL passing attempts may come down, but I think he could easily average 5.6 targets per game if healthy - 90 targets (Hooper averaged 7.5 per game last season in 13 games, only starting 10 games). There is certainly ceiling beyond that.

I expect he will either have a higher catch rate and similar YPC/YPT or maintain his catch rate with higher YPC/YPT, due to playing with a better QB in a stronger passing offense. And I certainly think his TDs will go up - Hooper had 10 on 185 targets over the past 2 seasons... so it seems reasonable to project Hurst with 5 on 90 targets.

Add it all up, and, even with a significant reduction in passing attempts, I would project something like 90 targets, 69 receptions, 760 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs. In PPR, that would have ranked #7 in total points last season.
Cool. At least we agree on the targets. The career averages are lower.

I think Boyle is relevant to the conversation of Hurst earning playing time. It shows that he was not a better blocker or receiver than 2 other TE on his team. The PFF grades show Hurst is not good at run blocking. This could affect his snaps and if it is mostly run downs that Hurst doesn't play then he won't benefit as much from play action.

I am skeptical of Hurst receiving greater efficiency because of higher quality QB play. Hursts yards per target from last year is actually pretty strong. I am sure there were plays that Jackson being a threat as a runner and extending plays helps that. Not so Matt Ryan. I think with increased volume efficiency goes down not up.

Changing teams is often not good for these players in their first season with the new team. Under the current circumstances, practice and chemistry may be more difficult to achieve than usual.

Hurst is going into his 3rd season, so I would expect some improvement from experience and TE generally improving in their 3rd season, although I wonder if that has been disrupted now by him changing teams.

 
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Cool. At least we agree on the targets. The career averages are lower.

I think Boyle is relevant to the conversation of Hurst earning playing time. It shows that he was not a better blocker or receiver than 2 other TE on his team. The PFF grades show Hurst is not good at run blocking. This could affect his snaps and if it is mostly run downs that Hurst doesn't play then he won't benefit as much from play action.

I am skeptical of Hurst receiving greater efficiency because of higher quality QB play. Hursts yards per target from last year is actually pretty strong. I am sure there were plays that Jackson being a threat as a runner and extending plays helps that. Not so Matt Ryan. I think with increased volume efficiency goes down not up.

Changing teams is often not good for these players in their first season with the new team. Under the current circumstances, practice and chemistry may be more difficult to achieve than usual.

Hurst is going into his 3rd season, so I would expect some improvement from experience and TE generally improving in their 3rd season, although I wonder if that has been disrupted now by him changing teams.
Sure. I guess we will agree to disagree to whatever degree our projections are different.

 

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