Giving up the 2nd made sense financially. Hooper is making 11 million per year, while they get Hurst at 3.4 million over the next two years then the Falcons get an option year if they want it. They basically get three years of Hurst for the price of one year of Hooper. They could easily walk away from a 30 year old Hurst if his contract demands are too high.Hooper seemed like he was more situation than talent. He pretty much goes into the Kyle Rudolph range for me after this.
I don't think Hurst is any special talent, but I also don't think he's any worse than Hooper. He should step right into close to Hooper's role, especially considering what the Falcons gave up. It's crazy to me they preferred giving up a 2nd vs. just paying Hooper.
If you only look at finances it makes sense, but that ignores the opportunity cost of the pick. Tagging Hooper at $11m and having the 55th pick under contract cheap for 4 years seems like way more value.Giving up the 2nd made sense financially. Hooper is making 11 million per year, while they get Hurst at 3.4 million over the next two years then the Falcons get an option year if they want it. They basically get three years of Hurst for the price of one year of Hooper. They could easily walk away from a 30 year old Hurst if his contract demands are too high.
The other side of the coin is that you pick Hurst who you have a better idea of how he might fit on the team because he has NFL film and 9 million in cap space to spend elsewhere vs resigning Hooper and getting an unproven 2nd round pick who may or may not be a valuable piece.If you only look at finances it makes sense, but that ignores the opportunity cost of the pick. Tagging Hooper at $11m and having the 55th pick under contract cheap for 4 years seems like way more value.
I too think Hurst will outperform Hooper because of the QB play. But I'd still take Hooper in dynasty, because he almost two years younger and has two years more experience. I don't think difference in production will be big enough to make up for that.I voted for Hurst, along with about 70% of the responses so far. I think that Hooper's production had more to do with the Atlanta offense than with Hooper's skills, and that Hurst has looked about as good as Hooper (though in a more limited role) and is likely to step right in where Hooper left off.
It's interesting because most of the redraft and dynasty rankings and ADPs that I see out there still have Hooper ahead of Hurst. That includes the 2020 projections from Dodds and the dynasty rankings from Dan Hindery & Bruce Hammond. So far, Mike Tagliere's 2020 redraft rankings are the only place that I've seen Hurst ahead of Hooper.
Hooper is a year and two months younger - that shouldn't play a huge factor.Nero said:I too think Hurst will outperform Hooper because of the QB play. But I'd still take Hooper in dynasty, because he almost two years younger and has two years more experience. I don't think difference in production will be big enough to make up for that.
Is Stefanski going to call plays?Browns will in likelihood utilize a LOT of 2 TE sets, as stefanski apparently led the league in that usage last season, implementing it 50% of the time.
Njoku is a monster athlete w some hand issues... But a legitimate redzone threat that will, along w obj, chubb and landry, zap Hooper's fantasy value.
Hurst looks poised to slot right in and resume what Hooper was doing in ATL... Let's be real here... they gave up a SECOND rounder for him... now go look at his production... minimal.
They wanted him in the draft, and when hooper left they gave up big capital to get him.
For fantasy purposes, Hurst, 100%. But I absolutely LOVE the signing for the browns.
don't know how things will be implemented, but im sure even if he doesnt, he'd have a pretty big say in what he wants to see.Is Stefanski going to call plays?
I see the OC is Alex Van Pelt and from what I read they haven't decided on who will call plays yet. It depends on if they hire a QB coach?don't know how things will be implemented, but im sure even if he doesnt, he'd have a pretty big say in what he wants to see.
Dont see why else theyd have both njoku and hooper rostered
Excellent question and poll. I favor Hurst. As others have said, the Atl situation appears to offer higher target volume and let's not forget that Hurst was a first round draft pick while Hooper was a 3rd rounder.Did Austin Hooper have a big year because he's Austin Hooper, or because he was TE Falcons? Who do you like more going forward, Browns' TE Austin Hooper or the new TE Falcons, Hayden Hurst?
Maybe I'm misremembering Tony G's skills, but I can't say I've seen anything from Hurst to say he's a more natural receiver.The Falcons were looking for the Replacement for Tony Gonzalez when Hooper stuck. Hooper was the poor man's TG.
Hurst is a faster, a more natural receiver than either Hooper or Gonzalez.
Hurst may blow up in this role. He may finally actually be the replacement for Gonzalez in this offense.
Nice grab on Hurst.Maybe I'm misremembering Tony G's skills, but I can't say I've seen anything from Hurst to say he's a more natural receiver.
On Hurst vs. Hooper, Hooper just went 3 round higher in a 2PPR TE premium startup I'm in. I couldn't believe it (I got Hurst in round 10).
FBG staff are now evenly divided between Hurst & Hooper in their redraft rankings, with 7 of the 14 staff favoring each, and Hurst comes in one spot ahead of Hooper in the average. So there has been some movement in favor of Hurst, even though Hooper is still favored in more of the places that I've checked. Meanwhile our poll is now up to 79% in favor of Hurst with 87 votes in.I voted for Hurst, along with about 70% of the responses so far. I think that Hooper's production had more to do with the Atlanta offense than with Hooper's skills, and that Hurst has looked about as good as Hooper (though in a more limited role) and is likely to step right in where Hooper left off.
It's interesting because most of the redraft and dynasty rankings and ADPs that I see out there still have Hooper ahead of Hurst. That includes the 2020 projections from Dodds and the dynasty rankings from Dan Hindery & Bruce Hammond. So far, Mike Tagliere's 2020 redraft rankings are the only place that I've seen Hurst ahead of Hooper.
What did you get for him?Hurst is one of the best values headed into the 2020 season. Most “experts” have him as a late round lottery ticket. I think dude is a stud who will quickly become Ryan’s second favorite target. He’s got good hands, run solid routes, has some speed & decent size.
i’m a little bit sad I dealt him away in dynasty a couple weeks ago as I think he has a big year.
Part of a trade for Devin Singletary. Brady/Hurst/Demarcus Robinson for Singletary & a 4th.What did you get for him?
This. If he has 100 targets as I think he will, he’s probably a 75/900/7 guy in that offense.Hurst is a much better athlete than Hooper and a good blocker. The only reason Baltimore dealt him is he was blocked by Andrews and Boyle (bigger, better blocker) and the price was too high to pass on. The ATL offense that fed targets to Hooper... even if he gets the same amount of targets Hurst is a guy than can do more with them. Only the immortal Jaeden Graham is Hurst's competition for snaps right now.
I realize this may not matter to you as you traded Hurst away, but I think this projection is overly optimistic.This. If he has 100 targets as I think he will, he’s probably a 75/900/7 guy in that offense.
We all have our takes. I am a believer. Dude’s a baller & was severely under-utilized in Baltimore. He runs good routes, has good hands, and is already working out with Ryan, who loves him some TEs.Biabreakable said:I realize this may not matter to you as you traded Hurst away, but I think this projection is overly optimistic.
In previous post you stated you think Hurst will be the Falcons 2nd most targeted player. I think that is very unlikely as Calvin Ridley is the player I would expect to be in that position, not Hurst.
The Falcons traded away Mohammed Sanu last season and that is part of the reason for the spike in targets for Hooper last season. In addition the Falcons could not run the ball, causing them to throw 684 times. From 2016 to 2018 the Falcons have averaged 561 pass attempts. 2019 was 120 targets more than this average. If I use a 3 year average of 2017 to 2019 I get 610 passing attempts.
In 2018 when the Falcons had Julio Sanu and Ridley, Hooper was their 4th most targeted player.at 88 targets over 16 games.
The Falcons added Todd Gurley who may be a shadow of his former self but is still an upgrade over Freeman, Brian Hill and Ito Smith last year. He will get targets in the passing game that otherwise may have been a dump off to the TE.
Hurst has a career catch rate of 69.4% so at 100 targets that would be 69 receptions. He has 11.9 yards per reception so 821 yards. Hurst has a career yards per target of 8.3 so this would be 830 yards on 100 targets.
I think Hurst sees something more like 90 targets in 2020 with career averages that means 62 receptions 743 yards TD I don't know. Hurst has 3 TD so far in 2 years.
Ridley was injured last season. He missed 3 games with an abdominal injury at the end of the season. He had a toe injury that he was playing through earlier on in the season according to this article, that he had begun to recover from and play better before the injury against the Panthers.We all have our takes. I am a believer. Dude’s a baller & was severely under-utilized in Baltimore. He runs good routes, has good hands, and is already working out with Ryan, who loves him some TEs.
Hand in hand with this is that I think Ridley is a bit overrated. He has upside, but he hasn’t really shown me consistency. He faded badly after a hot start, he’s not big in the red zone, & he seemed to get bullied by DBs & thrown off his routes in the games I watched.
again, just my opinion. Others may watch Ridley and see a better player. I don’t think he’s lived up to the hype yet.
Maybe 2020 is his year & I’m dead wrong. A lot will depend on what kind of chemistry Ryan & Hurst develop. We’ll see what happens.
And yeah, I say all this with no skin in the game as I sold my only share.
All fair points.Ridley was injured last season. He missed 3 games with an abdominal injury at the end of the season. He had a toe injury that he was playing through earlier on in the season according to this article, that he had begun to recover from and play better before the injury against the Panthers.
Ridley has played 2 seasons and he has 17 TD already. He was on pace for 115 targets last year. He has an excellent 9.1 yards per target so far in his career and the coaches stated the reason they traded Sanu is because they thought Ridley was ready to be their 2nd WR and take his place in the offense.
I am wary of any projection for Hurst because their is so little data to work with its a fools errand. I am not comfortable with just penciling in Hoopers opportunity for Hurst when he has already been outplayed by two other TE on his previous team.
I am also wary of drafting players based on opportunity alone. That often does not go very well.
All of that said I still would likely take Hurst over Hooper. I just think Hooper is similar to Kyle Rudolph, coming off of a career year and his numbers will be a lot less in Cleveland.
Agree with this.Biabreakable said:In previous post you stated you think Hurst will be the Falcons 2nd most targeted player. I think that is very unlikely as Calvin Ridley is the player I would expect to be in that position, not Hurst.
At face value, it doesn't look like it. Sanu was traded after game 7. In the first 7 games, Hooper averaged 7.9 targets per game. In the other 6 games he played, he averaged 7.0 targets per game. He did miss 3 games in there due to a MCL sprain, but he had 6 targets in his first game back, so it isn't clear if his targets were depressed at all due to the injury.Biabreakable said:The Falcons traded away Mohammed Sanu last season and that is part of the reason for the spike in targets for Hooper last season.
These are good points.Biabreakable said:In addition the Falcons could not run the ball, causing them to throw 684 times. From 2016 to 2018 the Falcons have averaged 561 pass attempts. 2019 was 120 targets more than this average. If I use a 3 year average of 2017 to 2019 I get 610 passing attempts.
In 2018 when the Falcons had Julio Sanu and Ridley, Hooper was their 4th most targeted player.at 88 targets over 16 games.
The Falcons added Todd Gurley who may be a shadow of his former self but is still an upgrade over Freeman, Brian Hill and Ito Smith last year. He will get targets in the passing game that otherwise may have been a dump off to the TE.
But Hurst is entering his third season, and his second was quite a bit better than his first. He will also be playing with a better passer than either Flacco or Jackson. I'm not sure limiting him to his career averages is appropriate.Biabreakable said:Hurst has a career catch rate of 69.4% so at 100 targets that would be 69 receptions. He has 11.9 yards per reception so 821 yards. Hurst has a career yards per target of 8.3 so this would be 830 yards on 100 targets.
I think Hurst sees something more like 90 targets in 2020 with career averages that means 62 receptions 743 yards TD I don't know. Hurst has 3 TD so far in 2 years.
In regards to Gage getting more action that's true, but Gage not as much of a threat as Sanu, and Ridley moved to number two WR.Agree with this.
At face value, it doesn't look like it. Sanu was traded after game 7. In the first 7 games, Hooper averaged 7.9 targets per game. In the other 6 games he played, he averaged 7.0 targets per game. He did miss 3 games in there due to a MCL sprain, but he had 6 targets in his first game back, so it isn't clear if his targets were depressed at all due to the injury.
It was Gage whose targets spiked big time after the trade.
These are good points.
But Hurst is entering his third season, and his second was quite a bit better than his first. He will also be playing with a better passer than either Flacco or Jackson. I'm not sure limiting him to his career averages is appropriate.
Hooper’s early career numbers? Not last year’s targets, no. But what did his first two years in Atlanta look like?What would be an alternative to using Hurst career averages?
Hooper’s early career numbers? Not last year’s targets, no. But what did his first two years in Atlanta look like?
Per PFF for 2019:Austin Hooper first two seasons 92 targets 68 receptions 797 yards 6 TD 73.9% catch rate 8.6 yards per target
Hayden Hurst first two seasons 62 targets 43 receptions 512 yards 3 TD 69.4% catch rate 8.3 yards per target
So Hooper was better in catch rate and yards per target in his first two seasons on higher volume of targets than Hurst had. Fewer the targets better the efficiency generally.
Last season the Ravens played 3 TE extensively
Nick Boyle played 769 offensive snaps 43 targets 31 receptions 321 yards 2 TD 72% catch rate 7.5 yards per target
Hatden Hurst played 457 offensive snaps 39 targets 30 receptions 349 yards 2 TD 76.9% catch rate 8.9 yards per target
Mark Andrews okyed on 457 offensive snaps 98 targets 64 receptions 852 yards 10 TD 65.3% catch rate 8.7 yards per target
So while Hurst does seem to be a better receiving option than Nick Boyle as far as efficiency stats he obviously isn't as good of a blocker and Boyle is. Hell Boyle played more snaps than the Ravens center did.
Mark Andrews is the better receiver here, Targeted over twice as much as Hurst on the same number of offensive snaps.
So where does this put Hurst?
Not as good a receiver as Hooper or Andrews. Hurst is a better receiver than Nick Boyle.
Cool. At least we agree on the targets. The career averages are lower.Per PFF for 2019:
For comparison (2019): Hooper - 724 snaps (78.3 overall grade), 511 passing (80.5), 35 pass blocking (65.0), 178 run blocking (56.2)
- Boyle - 795 snaps (73.1 overall grade), 243 passing (65.0), 59 pass blocking (68.9), 493 run blocking (75.4)
- Andrews - 503 snaps (88.5), 347 passing (87.8), 7 pass blocking (61.1), 149 run blocking (66.5)
- Hurst - 500 snaps (73.1), 255 passing (77.3), 4 pass blocking (72.1), 241 run blocking (51.3)
Of course, Hurst was in his second season, while Hooper was in his fourth. So a bit of apples and oranges there. But looking at Hooper's snaps, looks like Hurst probably will run routes a lot more than he will block, which suits his strengths.
IMO there is no shame in not beating out Andrews for passing game snaps, and Boyle is basically a blocker, so I don't think he is particularly relevant to the discussion.
Hurst has no competition for passing game snaps at TE. I fully expect he will get more snaps than Hooper did if healthy, given Hooper missed 3 games due to injury. I get that the ATL passing attempts may come down, but I think he could easily average 5.6 targets per game if healthy - 90 targets (Hooper averaged 7.5 per game last season in 13 games, only starting 10 games). There is certainly ceiling beyond that.
I expect he will either have a higher catch rate and similar YPC/YPT or maintain his catch rate with higher YPC/YPT, due to playing with a better QB in a stronger passing offense. And I certainly think his TDs will go up - Hooper had 10 on 185 targets over the past 2 seasons... so it seems reasonable to project Hurst with 5 on 90 targets.
Add it all up, and, even with a significant reduction in passing attempts, I would project something like 90 targets, 69 receptions, 760 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs. In PPR, that would have ranked #7 in total points last season.
Sure. I guess we will agree to disagree to whatever degree our projections are different.Cool. At least we agree on the targets. The career averages are lower.
I think Boyle is relevant to the conversation of Hurst earning playing time. It shows that he was not a better blocker or receiver than 2 other TE on his team. The PFF grades show Hurst is not good at run blocking. This could affect his snaps and if it is mostly run downs that Hurst doesn't play then he won't benefit as much from play action.
I am skeptical of Hurst receiving greater efficiency because of higher quality QB play. Hursts yards per target from last year is actually pretty strong. I am sure there were plays that Jackson being a threat as a runner and extending plays helps that. Not so Matt Ryan. I think with increased volume efficiency goes down not up.
Changing teams is often not good for these players in their first season with the new team. Under the current circumstances, practice and chemistry may be more difficult to achieve than usual.
Hurst is going into his 3rd season, so I would expect some improvement from experience and TE generally improving in their 3rd season, although I wonder if that has been disrupted now by him changing teams.