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Jonathan Taylor vs. De'Andre Swift PPR (1 Viewer)

JohnnyU

Footballguy
I believe Taylor is the best pure rusher in this draft, but those of you who point out his increased receptions in 2019, let's not forget there is a big difference between having the ability to catch some passes and being utilized / game planned in the passing game.  That's what Swift brings to the table and he's no slouch running the ball either.  Swift for me in PPR because he is guaranteed to be on the field more IMO.  That's no even factoring in the fumbling issues Taylor has.  For straight up non-PPR Taylor is 1.01 hands down, but for me it's Swift at 1.01 in PPR.  I'm not going to go and list a bunch of stats here, because that's been done in other threads, but if you have the 1.02 I wouldn't be trying to move up to the 1.01.  Hope the other guy takes Taylor 1.01 in PPR and Swift falls to you at 1.02.  Some owners with the 1.02 in PPR may opt for CeeDee Lamb  and forego both Taylor and Swift should either fall to 1.02.

 
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No decision until I see where they land and I include Dobbins in this...who else is in the backfield with these guys will be the deciding factor for me...they are all very talented but when it comes to RBs that will be top 5 fantasy picks in rookie drafts I want them to contribute at a pretty high-level right away.

 
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Taylor is such an incredible runner that it will depend on landing spot for me. If Taylor can continue to improve in the 3rd round duties his upside is elite IMO. Swift is a safer pick in PPR because we strongly speculate that he would be heavily involved in the passing game. I have seen comparisons of Swift to Kamara which I just don't see as I think AK is much more dynamic. Swift should be a solid back in PPR but I do worry about teams limiting his touches. Gun to head I take Taylor and his upside and hope he turns into Chubb+.

 
Swift for me, both PPR and non-PPR. It really depends where they land, though. I can see Swift's 5'8" stature being pigeonholed as a bulkier COP guy for some reason. If you're picking 1.01, you want an every down back. 

 
Swift scored 8 TDs last year. One of them was a reception.

Taylor scored 26. Five of them were receptions.

You have to catch a lot of passes to make up the difference of 18 TDs.

Point being, it's not as simple as "he's a better pass catcher so he's worth more in PPR".

 
Swift scored 8 TDs last year. One of them was a reception.

Taylor scored 26. Five of them were receptions.

You have to catch a lot of passes to make up the difference of 18 TDs.

Point being, it's not as simple as "he's a better pass catcher so he's worth more in PPR".
It's not just that he's the better receiver, it's that he will be in the passing "game plan" and that he's a pretty good runner as well.  Even with Taylor's increased receptions in 2019 there is risk he's "more" of a two down back....and then there is the fumbling issues....just food for thought.

 
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It's not just that he's the better receiver, it's that he will be in the passing "game plan" and that he's a pretty good runner as well.  Even with Taylor's increased receptions in 2019 there is risk he's "more" of a two down back....and then there is the fumbling issues....just food for thought.
There's very much a risk that Swift winds up in a committee, too. You'll have to see where these guys wind up.

 
I think the idea of a three down back is largely a myth.

Adrian Peterson was often off the field for 3rd down. Most teams have a healthy split between multiple guys.

And so what if Swift is featured more on the passing game if he doesn't perform as well in the running game?

Swift certainly looks the part but his college production is relatively meh. Taylor's is off the chart.

 
I think the idea of a three down back is largely a myth.

Adrian Peterson was often off the field for 3rd down. Most teams have a healthy split between multiple guys.

And so what if Swift is featured more on the passing game if he doesn't perform as well in the running game?

Swift certainly looks the part but his college production is relatively meh. Taylor's is off the chart.
I keep watching them run and keep bearing in mind how productive Taylor was in college -- and what his combine was -- and still can't come away but think Swift is the back I like. I guess that's what makes it great, this differing of opinion about what looks right and is effective in sport.

 
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I keep watching them run and keep bearing in mind how productive Taylor was in college -- and what his combine was -- and still can't come away but think Swift is the back I like. I guess that's what makes it great, this differing of opinion about what looks right and is effective in sport.
For myself, I call it the "squint" factor. And I've fallen victim to it a lot even though I remind myself not to.

Last year I had the 1.1 in a non-ppr and I "squinted" looking at N'Keal Harry so hard I convinced myself that he'd be an immediate back shoulder throw impact player for Tom Brady. He may still become that, but it's obvious I should have taken Jacobs.

It seems like people are squinting on Swift over Taylor to me. If I squint hard enough, I too can see Christian McCaffrey or maybe...Marshall Faulk!  :excited:

But eyes wide open it looks like Taylor is clearly the guy. And I have the 1.1 in both a ppr and non-ppr leagues.

 
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I think the idea of a three down back is largely a myth.

Adrian Peterson was often off the field for 3rd down. Most teams have a healthy split between multiple guys.

And so what if Swift is featured more on the passing game if he doesn't perform as well in the running game?

Swift certainly looks the part but his college production is relatively meh. Taylor's is off the chart.
Agreed...it's getting to a point where you just have to assume there will be other RBs that will will take a piece of the pie (and yes, there are examples like Zeke and CMac who are still used as horses)...the question is who and how good are the other RBs in that situation which is why I believe situation is becoming more and more important with the RB position...IMO you can argue all day long whether Taylor or Swift or Dobbins is better and make a ton of great points but all three are very talented and have a very good pedigree so I am gonna let where they get drafted and what that situation looks like play a very big role in my final decision. 

 
But eyes wide open it looks like Taylor is clearly the guy. And I have the 1.1 in both a ppr and non-ppr leagues.
We respectfully disagree then. I personally thought immediately that he was a better runner. I watched his highlights and he absolutely popped. The feeling was visceral and immediate, not influenced by thinking of the situational.

Dobbins to KC? That's where I might be accused of situational if I took him with 1.01, which I also have. I'm just saying PPR or not, I'd want Swift right now, knowing full well how productive Taylor was in college.

But Georgia backs are a bit like the Bama backs that got ruled by committee, so I'm not too worried about volume stats. The only thing I worry about is scouts pointing out Georgia's effectiveness at the point of attack with their O-line and that Swift should have been ever bigger of a beneficiary.

That said, I'll keep what I really want to do with 1.01 to myself from here on out. 

 
I think the idea of a three down back is largely a myth.

Adrian Peterson was often off the field for 3rd down. Most teams have a healthy split between multiple guys.

And so what if Swift is featured more on the passing game if he doesn't perform as well in the running game?

Swift certainly looks the part but his college production is relatively meh. Taylor's is off the chart.
That is a good point. Maybe we do emphasize that too much where in reality it doesn't necessarily exist in most cases. When drafting I tend to try to draft players who I believe can reach elite production. Taylor looks like he has that capability and Swift does not to me. That is not to say Swift is a bad player, I just think Taylor could be special with what he does well.

 
And the "If Guy X goes to KC, he's THE guy" trope is a mystery to me to. You think THAT won't be a rotation? I don't see KC as ideal at all.

 
And the "If Guy X goes to KC, he's THE guy" trope is a mystery to me to. You think THAT won't be a rotation? I don't see KC as ideal at all.
I think people have visions of Kareem Hunt from two or three years ago in their heads. I know I do. I also thought TB would be a great spot, but the FBG guys don't seem to think so. They're meh on the situation. 

 
I want the guy that catches balls.  Backs that get all their points from rushing yards and TDs are less consistent.  

 
I want the guy that catches balls.  Backs that get all their points from rushing yards and TDs are less consistent.  
But guys that get a big share of their points from receptions (i.e. that don't back it up with solid rushing stats) typically give consistently average returns.

Le'Veon Bell quietly caught 66 passes last year and was 23rd in ppr ppg.

Fournette loudly caught 76 and finished 11th - still good, of course, but a long ways away from top 5.

 
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But guys that get a big share of their points from receptions (i.e. that don't back it up with solid rushing stats) typically give consistently average returns.

Le'Veon Bell quietly caught 66 passes last year and was 23rd in ppr ppg.

Fournette loudly caught 76 and finished 11th - still good, of course, but a long ways away from top 5.
....but Swift will have solid rushing stats IMO.

 
Taylor had a ton of touches each year. Another back had to take some of the load. He is such a dominant runner that the smaller dropoff in capability is in receiving. This past season and at the combine, he looked far more than just capable at receiving. If his backup in the pros is also an all around back, I believe the backup will be used as a backup and Taylor will get plenty of receptions. Only if the backup is a questionable rusher but an excellent receiver will Taylor's college usage continue. In that case, I still think he would get plenty of receptions in games where his future team abandons the run, keeping his floor high.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
For myself, I call it the "squint" factor. And I've fallen victim to it a lot even though I remind myself not to.

Last year I had the 1.1 in a non-ppr and I "squinted" looking at N'Keal Harry so hard I convinced myself that he'd be an immediate back shoulder throw impact player for Tom Brady. He may still become that, but it's obvious I should have taken Jacobs.

It seems like people are squinting on Swift over Taylor to me. If I squint hard enough, I too can see Christian McCaffrey or maybe...Marshall Faulk!  :excited:

But eyes wide open it looks like Taylor is clearly the guy. And I have the 1.1 in both a ppr and non-ppr leagues.
So, Andy, no thought of going with Jeudy or Lamb in the PPR?

Just trying to get a feel for how this will fall out. 

 
So, Andy, no thought of going with Jeudy or Lamb in the PPR?

Just trying to get a feel for how this will fall out. 
Yes there is. My specific situation is a blessing and a curse - I have the first two picks (plus the 8, 11, and 13). So I'm driving myself crazy deciding if it's best to go RB/RB, RB/WR, or even WR/WR. I think I've settled on RB/WR but who knows?

 
Yes there is. My specific situation is a blessing and a curse - I have the first two picks (plus the 8, 11, and 13). So I'm driving myself crazy deciding if it's best to go RB/RB, RB/WR, or even WR/WR. I think I've settled on RB/WR but who knows?
Well, I hope you lost in the a Super Bowl and made some GREAT trades. 

 
Well, I hope you lost in the a Super Bowl and made some GREAT trades. 
I won the league two years ago but with a older team. When it became obvious last season was lost, and it happened pretty early, I sold off the useful parts.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
But guys that get a big share of their points from receptions (i.e. that don't back it up with solid rushing stats) typically give consistently average returns.

Le'Veon Bell quietly caught 66 passes last year and was 23rd in ppr ppg.

Fournette loudly caught 76 and finished 11th - still good, of course, but a long ways away from top 5.
Fournette also had bizarre TD numbers, and only a back that catches the ball can finish RB11 with 3 TDs, am I right?

 
Fournette also had bizarre TD numbers, and only a back that catches the ball can finish RB11 with 3 TDs, am I right?
Yes, but it still happened. I'm simply saying it takes a lot of catches to make up for shortcomings in other parts of your game.

I'm just not sure Swift's receiving ability closes the gap that I see compared to Taylor's running ability. That's all.

 
Yes there is. My specific situation is a blessing and a curse - I have the first two picks (plus the 8, 11, and 13). So I'm driving myself crazy deciding if it's best to go RB/RB, RB/WR, or even WR/WR. I think I've settled on RB/WR but who knows?
I’m in a very similar boat (1.1, 1.3, 1.5 in a 16 team ppr league). I’m also going back and forth on how to prioritize RB/WR. This league happens to reward WR equal to and arguably above RB but still a tough call. Personally I’m leaning Lamb at 1.1 depending on landing spots mainly bc I’m really sold on him and feel I’ll have several shots at RB. 
 

I do appreciate this thread a lot. I think I get overly fixated on RB receptions in ppr, so your comments warning against that resonate. I’m waiting for the draft to settle on anything bc I like Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, and Akers in a similar tier. The one guy I feel can be separated out of that tier is Taylor. His college production is just stupid and he’s the player I could see being really special. 

 
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I am not a huge Swift supporter but outside the top ten seems very aggressive.
Sigmund once said that Tebow was looking more and more like a quarterback and Matt Ryan was looking less like one the year Denver won a playoff game and the Falcs got essentially blanked by the Giants. Think it was 2011. So there are some misses along the way. Don't get me wrong. I like his delivery, his personality, his knowledge, but he's not a scout. He works at a fantasy site. Would I defer to him most of the time? Absolutely. But he can be very wrong and aggressively so. 

 
Sigmund once said that Tebow was looking more and more like a quarterback and Matt Ryan was looking less like one the year Denver won a playoff game and the Falcs got essentially blanked by the Giants. Think it was 2011. So there are some misses along the way. Don't get me wrong. I like his delivery, his personality, his knowledge, but he's not a scout. He works at a fantasy site. Would I defer to him most of the time? Absolutely. But he can be very wrong and aggressively so. 
Absolutely, everyone is wrong at times. I don’t mind the misses at all as long as you have some thought-out reasons why. 

 
Absolutely, everyone is wrong at times. I don’t mind the misses at all as long as you have some thought-out reasons why. 
Yeah, I was only using that example to show how aggressive Sigmund is with his projections. Back when they were rating fantasy experts, the New York Times ran an article about accuracy and deviation from the norm of predictions. Sigmund and Mike Clay were two of three guys who maintained accuracy while being way, way out the norm from their peers, relatively speaking.

I wish I still had the article. It was interesting. (This was back when Mike Clay worked at PFF instead of ESPN, a loss PFF's fantasy content still hasn't gotten over.)

 
Absolutely, everyone is wrong at times. I don’t mind the misses at all as long as you have some thought-out reasons why. 
At this point I need more than that.  

We're blessed to have analytics and people parsing historical data.  Opinion used to be enough, but I am gonna look and see what data backs up warm feelings.  

 
At this point I need more than that.  

We're blessed to have analytics and people parsing historical data.  Opinion used to be enough, but I am gonna look and see what data backs up warm feelings.  
The good thing is there are a lot of options out there. Some people pound analytics and historical data, others watch tape and make their judgement calls that way. Just like choosing stocks.....there is no perfect way, otherwise everyone would be using it.

 
I believe Taylor is the best pure rusher in this draft, but those of you who point out his increased receptions in 2019, let's not forget there is a big difference between having the ability to catch some passes and being utilized / game planned in the passing game.  That's what Swift brings to the table and he's no slouch running the ball either.  Swift for me in PPR because he is guaranteed to be on the field more IMO.  That's no even factoring in the fumbling issues Taylor has.  For straight up non-PPR Taylor is 1.01 hands down, but for me it's Swift at 1.01 in PPR.  I'm not going to go and list a bunch of stats here, because that's been done in other threads, but if you have the 1.02 I wouldn't be trying to move up to the 1.01.  Hope the other guy takes Taylor 1.01 in PPR and Swift falls to you at 1.02.  Some owners with the 1.02 in PPR may opt for CeeDee Lamb  and forego both Taylor and Swift should either fall to 1.02.
Swift gives me pause ranking him as the #1 RB due to his usage at Georgia. Swift had very strong numbers but was never really the bell cow at Georgia. The counter argument by some might be that it was a crowded backfield. That was also the case when Nick Chubb was at Georgia, and he still exceeded 210 att or more in every season but the season he was injured. Swift never exceed 200 att in his college career. Granted Swift appears to be a very accomplished receiver but people do not realize JT caught more pass than Swift LY.

Speaking of Taylor the two common criticism are his fumbling issue and his receiving ability. I do not put a lot of stock in the concern about fumble because I believe coaching can correct the issue (remember Tiki Barber? Or the concerns LY about Miles Sanders?). Regarding JT's receiving skills I saw him flash ability in several games LY and he performed well at the combine in the receiving drills. What gives the criticism of JT's receiving skills life is that he did not accumulate big numbers in the receiving while in college. The same can be said of Melvin Gordon and James White (except his senior year). In hindsight, do people consider them poor receiving RBs now? 

As others of said, landing spot will determine final rankings.

 
JT didn't put up gaudy receiving numbers because he wasnt in the game for 3rd downs. Even with the 8th best OL in college football, they needed someone better at pass pro in on 3rd downs. That is the red flag, not that he can or cannot catch. Hard to catch passes when you're not in the game. 
Can you provide a source for this info? In the games I watched JT was not subbed out on 3rd downs. 

 
I only watched 6 full Wisconsin football games Taylor's last season, not Youtube highlights or other cut up but full games, again only this last season and I'm no scout but they made it a point to showcase Taylor in the passing game. Wisconsin wanted to make sure Taylor was feature in every way and I'm 100% the Badgers that are on this forum would agree. Taylor made this team TICK.

Tex

 

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