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TripItUp

Has the cure become worse than the disease?

Has the cure become worse than the disease?  

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4 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

But it is both.  We are hurting the economy with targeted  shutdowns of certain industries.  You can't deny that 22 million new unemployment claims is hurting the economy.  And the virus is still spreading, albeit at a slower rate.  

Of course I’m not denying that it’s hurting the economy because I’m saying the measures are extreme that we are taking. How could it be hurting the economy if we were not taking extreme measures Jon? I don’t understand that line of thinking. 

OK let me try this from a different angle. Have we ever done anything like this in our lifetimes before?

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1 hour ago, zftcg said:

Careful, Bobby. Don’t get yourself suspended. We need you in the Lions thread. 

I’m just saying it’s inspiring to see these patriots out there carrying on the American tradition of protest in the face of adversity 

it’s like MLK with an AR-15 strapped on

(no round chambered & with the safety on of course)

who needs testing tracing and treatment when you have #mealteam6 leading the charge?

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30 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

We do that every time we board a plane.  Except the reality is more than 1 billion people fly each year,  and 100 or so die.  Most people look at the risk and accept it.  

1 in 100 <<<<<< 100 in 1,000,000,000. (1% v. 0.00001%)

 

So - would you board the plane, knowing that 1 random person on board will die?  Or do you say: "Hey Gramps, why don't you self-sacrifice so the rest of us can move on?"

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20 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

You could say that about driving a car.  When you drive you also put other people's life at risk.  How do you live with yourself? 

In one month, with mitigation efforts in place, COVID-19 has killed as many Americans as the number of Americans who die in car accidents over twelve months. 

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24 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

But it is both.  We are hurting the economy with targeted  shutdowns of certain industries.  You can't deny that 22 million new unemployment claims is hurting the economy.  And the virus is still spreading, albeit at a slower rate.  

The virus will decimate the economy even if we're not on lockdown.

Look as South Dakota. The governor of South Dakota refused to lock down. Now a pork processing plant that supplies 5% of the pork for the entire nation is shutdown on it's  own, because 300 employee working there are infected. 

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15 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

1 in 100 <<<<<< 100 in 1,000,000,000. (1% v. 0.00001%)

 

So - would you board the plane, knowing that 1 random person on board will die?  Or do you say: "Hey Gramps, why don't you self-sacrifice so the rest of us can move on?"

Maybe we have this Medicare all wrong.  Medicare until age 65 after, oh well you're on borrowed time anyway. 

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This conversation would be different if the media was doing wall to wall coverage on the death toll of joblessness, hunger, depression, loss of health benefits, and domestic abuse. Some deep dives will be taken into this but it will likely be down the line when people will have moved on to other things. The best path towards dealing with the virus has always been a balancing act. However for a variety or reasons, unpreparedness and politics among them, we have chosen extremes. And that is why we made it possible for the cure to become worse than the disease. We just don't know yet by what magnitude. We've known for weeks now who is vulnerable and at risk, yet we're still to this day taking a blanket approach and ignoring reasonable safety measures. All the while knowing the health impact of Great Depression level economic ruin. And yes it's measured in death just like this virus. There just won't be a graphic on the TVs 24/7 adding up all those deaths.

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2 hours ago, kwille said:

Quite a few thought experiments being tossed around. Nothing wrong with that as it helps establish some sideboards to this historic dilemma.

At the risk of over-simplifying, any next step phase-in decisions need to based on adaptive data-driven risk analyses. Adaptive: allows flexibility as new information is gained, Data-driven: effort is taken to identify what questions need to be answered and what data is needed to answer those questions. Structured data acquisition and continuous monitoring and analysis of the data follows. Risk Analysis: data informed risks are determined and weighted. Companion mitigation strategies are developed to reduce risk. Appropriate action is taken and the process starts anew. Politics is absent, or at least absent from the grown-ups table where the work gets done. 

 

Sweden has looked at all of that data and faring very well. 
 

https://apple.news/A0a-lIjrFSfCw-ePxkA5NSQ

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1 minute ago, TripItUp said:

Not according to this article from a reputable source.

https://apple.news/A0a-lIjrFSfCw-ePxkA5NSQ

Go back, check the Worldometer stats that show Sweden with at least twice the infection numbers as any of its neighbors, and see how this is ineffective at best.

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Just now, Kal El said:

Go back, check the Worldometer stats that show Sweden with at least twice the infection numbers as any of its neighbors, and see how this is ineffective at best.

Sweden’s doesn’t care about the infected numbers.  It cares about having effective measures to maintain the country. 
 

 

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3 hours ago, kwille said:

If I am it won't be for political reasons because playing politics at a time like this is wasted energy at best. "Open back up" is a general term. I won't fault the decisions of any authority as long as informed decisions are being made (with a loud emphasis on the word informed).

Well, states are opening back up without the elaborate testing many in this thread are mandating. 
 

we’ll see how it goes. 

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1 minute ago, TripItUp said:

Sweden’s doesn’t care about the infected numbers.  It cares about having effective measures to maintain the country. 
 

 

Which it's not doing if the numbers are worse than everywhere else in Scandinavia. Their deaths today are already greater than Norway, Denmark and Finland's combined. If those are "effective measures," I shudder at ineffective ones. They chose to keep everuthing open, and we're seeing how that's not working.

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50 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

is opening up and then getting hit with a second wave, which would then force us to go back into quarantine, better or worse than staying in quarantine until more data is mined.

At the end, I think the inability to push mass testing will be the biggest blunder of Trumps on this one. 

You are presuming a second quarantine? 
 

Many states are opening up soon, I guess we’ll find out if you are right. 

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Just now, Kal El said:

Which it's not doing if the numbers are worse than everywhere else in Scandinavia. Their deaths today are already greater than Norway, Denmark and Finland's combined. If those are "effective measures," I shudder at ineffective ones. They chose to keep everuthing open, and we're seeing how that's not working.

The article paints a very different story than the one you are telling. 
 

 

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3 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

This conversation would be different if the media was doing wall to wall coverage on the death toll of joblessness, hunger, depression, loss of health benefits, and domestic abuse. 

It seems as though the only tool at our disposal to diminish the destruction of this virus is to shut things down and have people engage in social distancing.

There are numerous tools at our disposal to help diminish the problems you describe.  A lot of them can be helped with increased redistribution of wealth and enhanced government social services.  Making people go back to work is not the only way to make these things better.  

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Sweden has more deaths per capita on less measured cases per capita than the US.  Not really a great example.

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Just now, TripItUp said:

The article paints a very different story than the one you are telling. 
 

 

The numbers paint a far more accurate picture. Math doesn't lie.

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Just now, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

It seems as though the only tool at our disposal to diminish the destruction of this virus is to shut things down and have people engage in social distancing.

There are numerous tools at our disposal to help diminish the problems you describe.  A lot of them can be helped with increased redistribution of wealth and enhanced government social services.  Making people go back to work is not the only way to make these things better.  

Ah yes, here come the “well need socialism” arguments when it will be capitalism that will actually save the world from this virus.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

It seems as though the only tool at our disposal to diminish the destruction of this virus is to shut things down and have people engage in social distancing.

There are numerous tools at our disposal to help diminish the problems you describe.  A lot of them can be helped with increased redistribution of wealth and enhanced government social services.  Making people go back to work is not the only way to make these things better.  

I think we're mostly agreeing with one another so I'll say that I do agree with you and add that yes, simply going back to work is not the only way to make things better.

But it is a big part of the solution. It has to be done in a measured common sense and safe way. We should be there by now.

Edited by Mr Anonymous

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6 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Ah yes, here come the “well need socialism” arguments when it will be capitalism that will actually save the world from this virus.

Is it a tenet of capitalism that when the economy takes a bad turn, the government spends $2 trillion to prop it up? 

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48 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

Take the best practices I  social distancing and protecting yourself.  You don't have to come into contact with countless people.  That is the price you pay and are willing to accept.  

The problem I see with your thesis is how do we protect the healthcare system from the choices other people are making.  I'm fully on board with people taking the decision and responsibility into their own hands.  That should also include the repercussions.  If people want to accept the risk, they shouldn't be able to pass the repercussions of a bad result to others (i.e. healthcare workers).  If the people crowing that we must open up the economy would also be willing to forgo healthcare should they get sick, I'm all for it.  Unfortunately, like many other things, the downside is socialized.  

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10 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

You are presuming a second quarantine? 
 

Many states are opening up soon, I guess we’ll find out if you are right. 

I don't know what to expect because there's not enough data. If I'd had to wager (based partly on what has gone on in other countries), there's going to be a lifting of the quarantine....certain industries (restaurant) will see a bit of spike in business.....but it won't be sustained as enough people aren't comfortable with going out while this thing is still around.  Then there will be a resurge of cases as people start mingling more.  Once there's a resurge....I can't believe there won't be another quarantine.

 

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16 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Ah yes, here come the “well need socialism” arguments when it will be capitalism that will actually save the world from this virus.

Why is it binary?

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Is it a tenet of capitalism that when the economy takes a bad turn, the government spends $2 trillion to prop it up? 

I think you're light by a few trillion when you include all the lending facilities the fed is funding.  How anyone can call this capitalism is beyond me.  It's a good Fox News soundbite to parrot, I suppose.  

Edited by workdog3
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43 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

This conversation would be different if the media was doing wall to wall coverage on the death toll of joblessness, hunger, depression, loss of health benefits, and domestic abuse. Some deep dives will be taken into this but it will likely be down the line when people will have moved on to other things. The best path towards dealing with the virus has always been a balancing act. However for a variety or reasons, unpreparedness and politics among them, we have chosen extremes. And that is why we made it possible for the cure to become worse than the disease. We just don't know yet by what magnitude. We've known for weeks now who is vulnerable and at risk, yet we're still to this day taking a blanket approach and ignoring reasonable safety measures. All the while knowing the health impact of Great Depression level economic ruin. And yes it's measured in death just like this virus. There just won't be a graphic on the TVs 24/7 adding up all those deaths.

We don’t care about that stuff on a day to day basis...why now?

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1 minute ago, workdog3 said:

I think you're light by a few trillion when you include all the lending facilities the fed is funding.  How anyone can call this capitalism is beyond me.  It's a good Fox News soundbite to parrot, I suppose.  

Saw something a week ago or so that the Fed balance sheet is at $7.2T.  Not all from CV, it's been building.  

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3 minutes ago, workdog3 said:

I think you're light by a few trillion when you include all the lending facilities the fed is funding.  How anyone can call this capitalism is beyond me.  It's a good Fox News soundbite to parrot, I suppose.  

And there’s certainly another round coming but I was being conservative. I suppose that money is just the invisible hand of Adam Smith.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, workdog3 said:

I think you're light by a few trillion when you include all the lending facilities the fed is funding.  How anyone can call this capitalism is beyond me.  It's a good Fox News soundbite to parrot, I suppose.  

What the Fed does can be undone on its own.

What the Federal government does requires taxes to undo. 

That's a big difference between the two. 

Edited by Death Bytes

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4 minutes ago, Death Bytes said:

What the Fed does can be undone on its own.

What the Federal government does requires taxes to undo. 

That's a big difference between the two. 

If the money is never taken back out of the economy then it's just diluting the value of everything we have.  If this is just a stopgap and will be completely reversed, I agree.  

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I’m glad this thread was started. We need a place where the idea that the “cure might be worse than the disease” can be discussed.

There could reach a point where that is possible. I feel strongly that we are not there yet.

There is truth to the idea that a depression will kill people, just as the coronavirus will. But we aren’t in a depression yet, and recorded, active cases of coronavirus are still on the rise.  
 

So for now, you fight the coronavirus, then you fight the economic battles. 
 

Some companies and maybe even some industries in the economy will not survive. But new ones will arise and this doesn’t have to be an either/or thing.

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3 minutes ago, workdog3 said:

If the money is never taken back out of the economy then it's just diluting the value of everything we have.  If this is just a stopgap and will be completely reversed, I agree.  

The bolded is the entire point that the Fed can just do that in their own. The Fed can take money out of the economy just as fast as it can put money into the economy. When it's time to take money out because, say for example, prices are rising due to too much money in existence, then it simply starts selling off it's balance sheet. This does two things: 1) it floods the market with assets for sale, which counteracts the forces of rising prices to produce price stability; and 2) the cash it gets for selling those assets is extinguished 

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Posted (edited)

Why can't we do both?  Why does everything always have to be one or the other.  Seems to me we can follow these phases with the Feds help and allow those that are able to continue distancing.  Maybe I don't know the phase plan we'll enough but thought it had to do with easing back in.

I can easily keep distancing.  Just need my boss to approve telework for a year+ which is 100% feasable and has been successful.  Arguable more productive.  I know I'm just one of millions able to do this too.  And that's all I need for my family to play a part in cure.  

 

Edited by beef
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8 minutes ago, beef said:

Why can't we do both?  Why does everything always have to be one or the other.  Seems to me we can follow these phases with the Feds help and allow those that are able to continue distancing.  Maybe I don't know the phase plan we'll enough but thought it had to do with easing back in.

I can easily keep distancing.  Just need my boss to approve telework for a year+ which is 100% feasable and has been successful.  Arguable more productive.  I know I'm just one of millions able to do this too.  And that's all I need for my family to play a part in cure.  

 

Distancing isn’t the question.

Democratic governors are clinging to maintaining shelter in place, a practice very harmful to the economy.

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11 minutes ago, Death Bytes said:

The bolded is the entire point that the Fed can just do that in their own. The Fed can take money out of the economy just as fast as it can put money into the economy. When it's time to take money out because, say for example, prices are rising due to too much money in existence, then it simply starts selling off it's balance sheet. This does two things: 1) it floods the market with assets for sale, which counteracts the forces of rising prices to produce price stability; and 2) the cash it gets for selling those assets is extinguished 

That's fine in theory, but the Fed didn't completely reverse it's balance sheet after the great recession. Much like fiscal stimulus, the fed doesn't unwind its monetary stimulus during the good times, thus leaving the inflationary pressure I'm referring to.  graph

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Distancing isn’t the question.

Democratic governors are clinging to maintaining shelter in place, a practice very harmful to the economy.

We'll, I can shelter in place for a year+ then.  If that helps with reopening and not flooding hospitals, limiting those that can spread, I'm in.  

Edited by beef
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22 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Distancing isn’t the question.

Democratic governors are clinging to maintaining shelter in place, a practice very harmful to the economy.

Seems both Dem and Reps are maintaining this right now.  Not sheltering in place is harmful to the health of their citizens...its not just an economical question.

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18 minutes ago, workdog3 said:

That's fine in theory, but the Fed didn't completely reverse it's balance sheet after the great recession. Much like fiscal stimulus, the fed doesn't unwind its monetary stimulus during the good times, thus leaving the inflationary pressure I'm referring to.  graph

This is because of the demand for dollars due to the dollar being the world's reserve currency. If the world replaced the dollar with a different or new type of world reserve currency, the Fed would counteract the slowing demand for US dollars by selling off assets and extinguishing that cash. 

In other words, even when the economy is good... in fact, especially when the economy is good around the world, the world demands more dollars in circulation, so the Fed is printing them up and buying assets to get those dollars into circulation. 

That said, the Fed was created and designed before the world decided to make the US dollar the world's reserve currency. So it's not the purpose of the Fed to do this for the world. But it works none the less. But it does mean that if/when the world does move away from the dollar as the worlds reserve currency, the unwinding process could cause a lot of volatility in the US economy. That volatility could take years until it stabilizes and the Fed returns to simply being our central bank, and not the world's. 

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Very good, mostly non-partisan conversation going in here. Resist the urge to make any of this binary. These challenges are super complicated and just can't be boiled down to this or that.

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I wish those that think the deaths are worth the jobs and economy could sacrifice themselves for the rest of us. These people should get together in the thousands and tongue kiss each other to an early grave so that we can move on from this.

Thanks!

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45 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Distancing isn’t the question.

Democratic governors are clinging to maintaining shelter in place, a practice very harmful to the economy.

OH NOES THE ECONOMY!!! 
Good to know that for you and people like you  value :moneybag::moneybag::moneybag::moneybag::moneybag::moneybag::moneybag::moneybag: > Life

 

You people should go back to work then. Rub your faces together every day as a sign of solidarity against those horrible governors. 

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Since we seem to just be printing money left and right to throw at this thing, I think the best possible thing they can do next is throw a ton of money at testing. Fix the small business loan program and focus on massive testing. It’s the only realistic way we are going to be able to get the economy going in any positive way in the near term. Barring a miracle drug or a world record timed vaccine, we are doomed to open up too early and end up right back where we started. Call me a pessimist, but I just don’t believe that most people are going to be wearing a mask and practicing social distancing once we start opening up. Maybe I’ll be happily proven wrong. I hope so. 

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57 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Distancing isn’t the question.

Democratic governors are clinging to maintaining shelter in place, a practice very harmful to the economy.

Like when someone mentioned a hurricane....there's a lot of things that cause "shelter in place" that harm the economy.  Who's going to go to a sporting event during a hurricane?  Who's going to go to one now amidst the Covid-19 situation? Are non-Democratic governors welcoming a Trump rally the day after they lift their bans?....If not, why not?

That's part of the problem of having a service/entertainment economy.

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

Distancing isn’t the question.

Democratic governors are clinging to maintaining shelter in place, a practice very harmful to the economy.

Would the shelter in place measures have worked if people followed them and/or they were stricter.  

I see a correlation on social media between the people not fully compliant with the suggested safety measures and those #####ing about the economy tanking and the states extending stay at homes too long.  

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2 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

I’m just saying it’s inspiring to see these patriots out there carrying on the American tradition of protest in the face of adversity 

it’s like MLK with an AR-15 strapped on

(no round chambered & with the safety on of course)

who needs testing tracing and treatment when you have #mealteam6 leading the charge?

I got your point and I thought it was funny, but take it from personal experience, the mods here really don’t like Nazi jokes, even oblique ones. I made what I thought was an innocuous one last spring and it cost me the ability to post here for the entirety of the 2019 season. 

I think I speak for every Lions fan on this site when I say that — in the spirit of this thread — you need to sacrifice your ability to make those jokes for the greater good of all of us staying informed about the goings-on of that miserable team we all love to hate. :tebow:

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2 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

1 in 100 <<<<<< 100 in 1,000,000,000. (1% v. 0.00001%)

 

So - would you board the plane, knowing that 1 random person on board will die?  Or do you say: "Hey Gramps, why don't you self-sacrifice so the rest of us can move on?"

Sure and 1 in 100 <<<<< 1 in 10,000 

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1 hour ago, eurotrashman said:

We don’t care about that stuff on a day to day basis...why now?

We don't usually blink at things that kill 40,000 people either. If we hit 60K on this, it will equal a really bad flu season. That's not saying this is the equivalent of the flu in terms of danger. This is clearly more contagious if not more deadly if contracted. You tell me why something that rarely kills young, healthy people has made us so powerless to common sense combative measures.

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Appropriate to post this here as well since reopening business in a safe controlled manner is a key aspect of making the cure one that doesn't destroy lives in a different way. If a mega resort and casino can come up with a plan to reopen, so can just about any business...

Wynn Las Vegas Detailed Reopening Plan for Mid to Late May

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