The real number of deaths in NYC is likely 5k higher. Meaning everyone would have had it.Let's do the math on that
With 1.7m confirmed cases that means at least 2.6m Americans have been infected (possibly more or less depending on the triage for getting tested). That is less than 1% of the population
NYC has 8.4m inhabitants. it has 197k confirmed cases and 16,410 deaths per google
16410/0.003=5,470,000 - so if these numbers are correct, two thirds of NYC has had the virus.
Testing has only found less than 200k cases in 1.7m tests.
So we are short of 5.27m positive cases in New York
The CDC number of asymptomatic cases would only indicate approx 100k positive cases short.
It seems to me these numbers don't add up
Here's one in Miami that furloughed or laid off almost 1,000 employees, about 20% of it's workforce, including physician practices: https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/florida-s-mount-sinai-medical-center-cuts-nearly-1-000.html
You should read the article Reason is linking go to for that number.According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent.
Yea it's true, here's a page from Johns Hopkins about it.I heard a doctor on the news claim that even though the fatality rate is low for most people, if you get this virus you have around a 20% chance of having permanent kidney damage. Anybody know how accurate this is?
If that’s true then all this talk about opening up without caution, without proper testing, as President Trump and many of his supporters are pushing for, seems like insanity.Yea it's true, here's a page from Johns Hopkins about it.
I don't think they know why exactly but kidneys are extremely sensitive to changes in blood pressure so maybe that's the mechanism?
Agreed, our healthcare is expensive enough, we don't need to add 60 million people to dialysis 3-4x a weekIf that’s true then all this talk about opening up without caution, without proper testing, as President Trump and many of his supporters are pushing for, seems like insanity.
It's insanity even if that's not true.If that’s true then all this talk about opening up without caution, without proper testing, as President Trump and many of his supporters are pushing for, seems like insanity.
Trump just mocked Biden for wearing a mask. And some people seem to approve of this.We need masks to be worn
I read so often on social media the mantra "it's my right to not wear a mask".Trump just mocked Biden for wearing a mask. And some people seem to approve of this.
While I agree with your last sentence, it should be mandatory to wear masks. What is the purpose of government and laws if not to enforce public safety? Is it your right to carry weapons to an airport? Is it your right to jaywalk on a busy street?I read so often on social media the mantra "it's my right to not wear a mask".
Ironically, in the past I've read from the same people posting the above "It's un-American to not stand for the National Anthem".
Choosing the not exercise your rights out of respect to others is about being humane, not American.
I just don't get why these people refuse to wear the mask. Do they think the government gets something out of it?I read so often on social media the mantra "it's my right to not wear a mask".
Ironically, in the past I've read from the same people posting the above "It's un-American to not stand for the National Anthem".
Choosing the not exercise your rights out of respect to others is about being humane, not American.
Reason linked the CDC study. Those were CDC's numbers. I understand some are skeptical, but I don't understand dismissing this positive news because "I donno"
I support the CDC & NIH, that’s easy for me. I was just asking if you had read the underlying article (which doesn’t contain any ‘I dunno’ take). I’ll also point out the Reproduction No. and the lack of testing means relying on asymptomatic numbers causes an expanded crisis in itself, though obviously that’s not the conclusion this will be used for.Reason linked the CDC study. Those were CDC's numbers. I understand some are skeptical, but I don't understand dismissing this positive news because "I donno"
Mitch Daniels always has interesting ideas. The "Protect Purdue Pledge" reminds me of how the UK leaders are always talking about "Protect the NHS". Signals matter and it is important that leaders practice the behavior we would need to reopen. This is why it is so abhorrent that Trump refuses to wear masks/mocks those that do.I think this is a good Op-Ed for everyone to read:
Why failing to reopen Purdue University this fall would be an unacceptable breach of duty
It is written by the current president of Purdue, a former Republican governor of Indiana. A few people here think we need to stay locked down until the virus is under control. A few people here think we need to remove all restrictions and go back to life as it existed in 2019. I think the article strikes a good balance in weighing those risks and rewards.
Its a WaPo op-ed - so if you have a subscription, give them the click, if you do not:
Reveal hidden contents
Mitch Daniels, a Post contributing columnist, is president of Purdue University and a former governor of Indiana.
On Feb. 1, watching the outbreak of a new virus in China, our university suspended travel to that country. On Feb. 26, we extended that ban to visiting other countries reporting the infection. On March 10, we decided to close the Purdue University campus for the spring semester and move to remote instruction. On March 17, we canceled our traditional commencement.
At the point when the campus was shut down, if we had needed to decide on our plans for the fall, we would have felt compelled to resume with remote instruction and keep the campus closed. For all we knew, covid-19 posed a danger across all lines of age and health status, and a place as densely populated as our campus would be defenseless against it — operations couldn’t be responsibly restarted.
We have all learned a lot since then. What would have been a reckless and scientifically unjustified decision in late March is now plainly the best option from both a scientific and a stewardship standpoint, at least for our particular institution. (We’re not alone: Two-thirds of the more than 700 colleges surveyed by the Chronicle of Higher Education have now come to the same conclusion and will reopen with in-person instruction in the fall.)
The most salient discovery the world has made during these terrible two months is that covid-19 is a very dangerous disease, specifically for the elderly and the infirm, particularly those with diabetes, hypertension, other cardiovascular illnesses or the obesity that so frequently leads to these disorders.
The companion discovery is that this bug, so risky in one segment of the population, poses a near-zero risk to young people. Among covid-19 deaths, 99.9 percent have occurred outside the 15-to-24 age group; the survival rate in the 20-to-29 age bracket is 99.99 percent. Even assuming the United States eventually reaches 150,000 total fatalities, covid-19 as a risk to the young will rank way below accidents, cancer, heart disease and suicide. In fact, it won’t even make the top 10.
This is fundamental information for institutions with radically skewed demographic compositions. If you’re running a nursing home, it means one thing. New York unintentionally ended hundreds of lives prematurely by ordering covid-19 patients into such homes, the worst possible places for them.
But if you’re running a university, the science is telling you something diametrically different. Our campus, including its surrounding community, has a median age of 20.5. More than 80 percent of the total campus population is 35 and under. We may have the population density of New York City, but we have the age distribution of Uganda. The challenge for Purdue is to devise maximum protection for the unusually small minority who could be at genuinely serious risk in order to serve the young people who are our reason for existing at all.
Here’s something else we’ve learned. Our students (and, one suspects, their trapped-at-home parents) overwhelmingly are eager to continue their educations, in person and on campus. We know it is not the case everywhere, but at Purdue, tuition deposits by incoming freshmen have shattered last year’s record, and re-enrollments of upper-class students are at normal levels.
Forty-five thousand young people — the biggest student population we’ve ever had — are telling us they want to be here this fall. To tell them, “Sorry, we are too incompetent or too fearful to figure out how to protect your elders, so you have to disrupt your education,” would be a gross disservice to them and a default of our responsibility.
Instead, we have spent every waking minute of the past eight weeks planning changes to almost everything we do — how we house and feed students and preserve the value of the tutelage and mentoring by faculty and advisers, while maintaining a safe physical distance between the two groups. A panel of scientists and clinicians is guiding our choices.
We will make our campus less dense in multiple ways. At least one-third of our staff will be required to work remotely. Our technologists have applied what they’ve learned about social distancing to redesign 700 classrooms and labs, and 9,500 dormitory rooms, all of which will be reconfigured with lower occupancy limits. All large-enrollment courses will be offered online as well as in person, to accommodate those who cannot or choose not to come to campus, and to further reduce in-class numbers.
We will test systematically and trace contacts of anyone testing positive for the coronavirus. We will forgo the concerts, convocations and social occasions that ordinarily enliven campus life. It will be a quieter fall without fraternity parties, but first things first.
Perhaps most important will be the cultural change on which we have to insist because, in another lesson of the coronavirus spring, nothing makes a more positive difference than personal behavior and responsibility. Wearing masks indoors and in any close-quarters space reduces viral transmission dramatically all by itself. Combined with rigorous hygiene and prudent social distancing, facial protection can probably provide more protection than all the extra disinfecting, plexiglass-barrier installation, HVAC improvements and other measures we take.
On arrival in August, each Boilermaker will receive a kit including face masks and a thermometer for daily temperature-taking as well as the Protect Purdue Pledge asking for a commitment to at least a semester of inconvenience, not primarily for the student’s own protection but for the safety of those who teach and otherwise serve them. I will urge students to demonstrate their altruism by complying, but also challenge them to refute the cynics who say that today’s young people are too selfish or self-indulgent to help us make this work.
A final thought: We recognize that not every school can or should view the decision to reopen as we do. Unlike Purdue, many colleges were already struggling with low enrollment and precarious finances when the pandemic hit. But given what we have learned, with 45,000 students waiting and the financial wherewithal to do what’s necessary, failure to take on the job of reopening would be not only anti-scientific but also an unacceptable breach of duty.
Funny. Most businesses never shut down and our mask mandate only started a week ago.It's insanity even if that's not true.
We need caution. We need testing. We need contact tracing. We need masks to be worn. With them we can open up pretty much everything. Without them we can open up very little.
I dont mock him. He is old as dirt, and it's the first time hes come within 6 feet of his wife in very a long time.Trump just mocked Biden for wearing a mask. And some people seem to approve of this.
ExactlyIt's insanity even if that's not true.If that’s true then all this talk about opening up without caution, without proper testing, as President Trump and many of his supporters are pushing for, seems like insanity.
We need caution. We need testing. We need contact tracing. We need masks to be worn. With them we can open up pretty much everything. Without them we can open up very little.
I'll be happy if I'm proven wrong, but that entire op-ed screams that he hasn't hung out in a college dorm for 40-50 years. It's one thing to set up proper protocols for 7am to 10pm, it's a whole other to do it 24 hours a day.Mitch Daniels always has interesting ideas. The "Protect Purdue Pledge" reminds me of how the UK leaders are always talking about "Protect the NHS". Signals matter and it is important that leaders practice the behavior we would need to reopen. This is why it is so abhorrent that Trump refuses to wear masks/mocks those that do.
If that were a jab to me, my scepticism is about the numbers not adding up. When asked to speculate at the cdc's motives for publishing I said I don't know why.Reason linked the CDC study. Those were CDC's numbers. I understand some are skeptical, but I don't understand dismissing this positive news because "I donno"
Aside from not being consistent with a lot of other data, the CDC is the only one promoting an IFR that low.If that were a jab to me, my scepticism is about the numbers not adding up. When asked to speculate at the cdc's motives for publishing I said I don't know why.
Their numbers still don't add up
Sounds like mockingI dont mock him. He is old as dirt, and it's the first time hes come within 6 feet of his wife in very a long time.
The only reason I can think of to make sense of their numbers not fitting the largest outbreak would be if the hospitals were overwhelmed, but AFAIK all are in agreement that this did not happen in NYCAside from not being consistent with a lot of other data, the CDC is the only one promoting an IFR that low.
Maybe college life has changed since "my day", but I would feel like you missed a major one: Parties.Biggest issues for colleges trying to reopen, IMO:
1. Dorms
2. Cafeteria
3. Large classes
Both my daughters attend Chapman University (my younger daughter will be a freshman this fall) and these are the concerns I have. Hopefully they’ve got some ideas in place.
Biggest issues for K-8Biggest issues for colleges trying to reopen, IMO:
1. Dorms
2. Cafeteria
3. Large classes
Both my daughters attend Chapman University (my younger daughter will be a freshman this fall) and these are the concerns I have. Hopefully they’ve got some ideas in place.
Wrong...again. the article states 30% of people who are HOSPITALIZED are showing damage and the article only says "some" of the patients had severe damage. (So whatever that means)I heard a doctor on the news claim that even though the fatality rate is low for most people, if you get this virus you have around a 20% chance of having permanent kidney damage. Anybody know how accurate this is?
Well, the schools don’t regulate parties so at some point we have to trust these kids to be responsible...Maybe college life has changed since "my day", but I would feel like you missed major one: Parties.
For cold-weather locations, there's also an awful lot of other shared spaces, like the gyms, libraries, and other gathering areas, etc. that are going to need significant protocol changes. I assume we're not really expecting students to stay locked in their dorm rooms.
Thanks for pointing that out. It makes me feel better.Wrong...again. the article states 30% of people who are HOSPITALIZED are showing damage and the article only says "some" of the patients had severe damage. (So whatever that means)
Considering the hospitalization rate seems to be dropping weekly, this doesn't change the debate between open or not open up the economy in my opinion.
Considering the hospitalization rate seems to be dropping weekly,
Another reference to "my day", but I remember the schools trusting us not to drink while underage. I'm not sure I can think of a single instance in the recorded history of humankind where trust was as badly misplaced.Well, the schools don’t regulate parties so at some point we have to trust these kids to be responsible...Maybe college life has changed since "my day", but I would feel like you missed a major one: Parties.
For cold-weather locations, there's also an awful lot of other shared spaces, like the gyms, libraries, and other gathering areas, etc. that are going to need significant protocol changes. I assume we're not really expecting students to stay locked in their dorm rooms.
My concern with the dorms is they’re small. Too many people in too small a space.
Anything above 0 is too high. But we will never get there.Don’t know about dropping but it’s 4.6% overall and 13% for those over 65. Which is still too high.
Its hard for me to take someone seriously who repeats "total lockdown" so many times.
A radiologist has no expertise that makes this opinion of any value.
Nonsense and lies, one after the other.
I'm not sure the news is all that positive. Using CDC's best estimate, we are still looking at >500k dead Americans....meaning, we are not yet 1/5 of the way thru this. linkReason linked the CDC study. Those were CDC's numbers. I understand some are skeptical, but I don't understand dismissing this positive news because "I donno"
I see this now after observing just a few daysYou can already see this sentiment on these forums.It's going to get ugly....up thread mentioned a friend of mine just outside of Atlanta that has a sandwich shop. He's been part of a local restaurant group for the better part of 20 years. It has 50-60 different owners as part of the group. Approximately half of them are considering closing their doors. People are deciding to stay home and straw polling by the owners of their customers who are coming in for pickup/delivery still gives a few different reasons for staying home, but the most popular, by far, is distrust in what they're being told by state and federal officials. The second one is the realization of how expensive it is for them to eat out (i.e. change in eating habits they've known they need to change but haven't).
I stated up thread that I believed we were entering the "confidence" phase of this whole fiasco and it seems to be true, at least where he's at. It will be interesting to see how long the "you should have the choice to do what you want...open back up!!!!!" crew continues with that notion before they start demeaning people as "scared" or "living in fear" for deciding to stay home with all the uncertainty and unclear/muddled messages from our leaders.
Why does anyone think the so-called "lockdown" was so harsh? I never saw MPs in the street. No National Guardsman road-blocked my car to check if I had gotten groceries in the last 7 days. No cops were checking IDs at drugstores. What are people talking about when they say "total lockdown"?sho nuff said:Its hard for me to take someone seriously who repeats "total lockdown" so many times.dgreen said:
One of two reasons. #1. it impacted them directly or #2. they lack the awareness of what other places have gone through to see how bad it can really get.Why does anyone think the so-called "lockdown" was so harsh? I never saw MPs in the street. No National Guardsman road-blocked my car to check if I had gotten groceries in the last 7 days. No cops were checking IDs at drugstores. What are people talking about when they say "total lockdown"?
I mean, "total", to me, would mean complete lack of freedom of movement. No leaving the house. No open spaces. Nothing.
It's your right to not wear a mask. It's also your right to not stand for the National Anthem. Choosing to NOT exercise those rights is about showing respect to your fellow Americans. Stand for the National Anthem and wear a mask around others. It's the right thing to do, even though it's your right not to.Funny. Most businesses never shut down and our mask mandate only started a week ago.
I dont mock him. He is old as dirt, and it's the first time hes come within 6 feet of his wife in very a long time.
Can you provide a link?I have seen studies that put the herd immunity anywhere from 20% to 43%
Wet market buffet?99% of the population that the virus doesn't pose a risk to?
I would eat anywhere tonight...I'm 45 and healthy.