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Dynasty & Redraft: RB/WR Antonio Gibson, Redskins

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

For me its not really a question of how talented the players are compared to each other but a question about a rookie RB opportunity to catch passes.

I think it helps that the coaching staff is the same as the staff that gave McCaffrey 113 targets as a rookie but I think the competition is too crowded for Gibson to have that many snaps and opportunities.

That said receptions to RB has been going up in recent years, I was more conservative about this possibility before McCaffrey than I am now.

Good catch Terpman22 as I missed Sanders reaching the 50 reception threshold last year. I think that puts Sanders in good company as far as his ability as a receiver goes.

ETA missing Barkleys rookie season from that list as well.

Kamara also. 

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Went 25, 26, 19, 24 in my drafts, none by me.  Too rich for my blood and I

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Went 25, 26, 19, 24 in my drafts, none by me.  Too rich for my blood and I

Hank?? You there, bud???

eta* He went 28th in ours and I was desperately hoping he'd fall to me at 30 after I took Dillon with 25. Some guy traded up and nabbed him.  

Edited by Encumbrance

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Posted (edited)
On 6/6/2020 at 9:18 PM, Biabreakable said:

70 receptions seems very optimistic to me.

Since 2000 these are the RB who had 50 receptions or more in their rookie seasons:

LaDanian Tomlinson 74 targets 59 receptions.

Reggie Bush 121 targets 88 receptions.

Christian McCaffrey 113 targets 80 receptions.

Tariik Cohen 71 targets 53 receptions.

Duke Johnson 74 targets 61 receptions.

Guivanni Bernard 71 targets 56 receptions.

Thats it. I think 70 targets could be in the cards but not 70 receptions.

This list is way off. There are actually 16 players who did it. Based on this data, i would say that is probably a 50% chance at least one RB in this rookie class gets at least 50 receptions in 2020. Now that being said, CEH is probably the most likely but I would maintain that it would not be that surprising if it were Gibson.


Games    Receiving
Rk    Player    Year    Age    Draft    Tm    Lg    G    GS    Tgt    Rec    Yds    Y/R    TD    Y/G    Ctch%    Y/Tgt
1    Saquon Barkley    2018    21    1-2    NYG    NFL    16    16    121    91    721    7.92    4    45.1    75.2%    5.96
2    Reggie Bush    2006    21    1-2    NOR    NFL    16    8    121    88    742    8.43    2    46.4    72.7%    6.13
3    Alvin Kamara    2017    22    3-67    NOR    NFL    16    3    100    81    826    10.20    5    51.6    81.0%    8.26
4    Christian McCaffrey    2017    21    1-8    CAR    NFL    16    10    113    80    651    8.14    5    40.7    70.8%    5.76
5    Matt Forte    2008    23    2-44    CHI    NFL    16    16    76    63    477    7.57    4    29.8    82.9%    6.28
6    Nyheim Hines    2018    22    4-104    IND    NFL    16    4    81    63    425    6.75    2    26.6    77.8%    5.25
7    Edgerrin James*    1999    21    1-4    IND    NFL    16    16    82    62    586    9.45    4    36.6    75.6%    7.15
8    Duke Johnson    2015    22    3-77    CLE    NFL    16    7    74    61    534    8.75    2    33.4    82.4%    7.22
9    LaDainian Tomlinson*    2001    22    1-5    SDG    NFL    16    16    74    59    367    6.22    0    22.9    79.7%    4.96
10    Jahvid Best    2010    21    1-30    DET    NFL    16    9    80    58    487    8.40    2    30.4    72.5%    6.09
11    Giovani Bernard    2013    22    2-37    CIN    NFL    16    0    71    56    514    9.18    3    32.1    78.9%    7.24
12    Tarik Cohen    2017    22    4-119    CHI    NFL    16    4    71    53    353    6.66    1    22.1    74.6%    4.97
13    Kareem Hunt    2017    22    3-86    KAN    NFL    16    16    63    53    455    8.58    3    28.4    84.1%    7.22
14    Trent Richardson    2012    22    1-3    CLE    NFL    15    15    70    51    367    7.20    1    24.5    72.9%    5.24
15    Miles Sanders    2019    22    2-53    PHI    NFL    16    11    63    50    509    10.18    3    31.8    79.4%    8.08
16    Steve Slaton    2008    22    3-89    HOU    NFL    16    15    59    50    377    7.54    1    23.6    84.7%    6.39
 

Edited by az_prof

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10 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah my PFR search failed. Sorry about that.

No worries it’s a good discussion all around and I’ve enjoyed reading through this thread. 50-70 receptions as a rookie is a difficult feat. You have to not only be a really talented receiver but also land in a spot where the coaching staff will take advantage of that skill. I’d separate him pretty quickly from CMC and Saquon as those guys were extremely polished guys coming out. And he’s not in a system that you know will have a high end receiving back like Bush and Kamara. It’s clear he will enter the league with elite receiving skills for a back. Despite the obvious difference in size between him and Cohen that might be the best usage comp as a rookie. Cohen was on a team with an early down back and not a whole lot else on offense. Gibson’s size gives him a much much higher ceiling though. If something were to happen to Guice again...
 

He’s just such a wildcard with such a bizarre profile. How does a guy with his size, speed, power, elusiveness, and efficiency only get 71 touches? And he scored 12 tds. And in Juco he only got 93 touches...and scored 16 times on them! When I think of a guy who went the juco route I always perceive him to be older for some reason but Gibson isn’t, he’s still a couple weeks shy of 22.

I don’t buy that the Washington backfield is crowded. Barber and McKissic are just dudes. ADP probably is just that as well. Love is coming off a difficult recovery from a major injury. Guice has a lot of talent IMO but he’s one of the lesser established starters out there. Heck, there are 3 more established starters in his division alone along with Kamara CMC Jones Dalvin in the conference. The situation at rb there isn’t really all that daunting compared to the rest of the league. 

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Was pleasantly surprised I was able to get him at 2.11 in one of my rookie drafts. The other leagues he had started going EARLY 2nd most of the time (2.1-2.5 range) 

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On 6/8/2020 at 4:31 PM, Cobbler1 said:

No worries it’s a good discussion all around and I’ve enjoyed reading through this thread. 50-70 receptions as a rookie is a difficult feat. You have to not only be a really talented receiver but also land in a spot where the coaching staff will take advantage of that skill. I’d separate him pretty quickly from CMC and Saquon as those guys were extremely polished guys coming out. And he’s not in a system that you know will have a high end receiving back like Bush and Kamara. It’s clear he will enter the league with elite receiving skills for a back. Despite the obvious difference in size between him and Cohen that might be the best usage comp as a rookie. Cohen was on a team with an early down back and not a whole lot else on offense. Gibson’s size gives him a much much higher ceiling though. If something were to happen to Guice again...
 

He’s just such a wildcard with such a bizarre profile. How does a guy with his size, speed, power, elusiveness, and efficiency only get 71 touches? And he scored 12 tds. And in Juco he only got 93 touches...and scored 16 times on them! When I think of a guy who went the juco route I always perceive him to be older for some reason but Gibson isn’t, he’s still a couple weeks shy of 22.

I don’t buy that the Washington backfield is crowded. Barber and McKissic are just dudes. ADP probably is just that as well. Love is coming off a difficult recovery from a major injury. Guice has a lot of talent IMO but he’s one of the lesser established starters out there. Heck, there are 3 more established starters in his division alone along with Kamara CMC Jones Dalvin in the conference. The situation at rb there isn’t really all that daunting compared to the rest of the league. 

I think its good to look at what players have done before to get a sense of how realistic a prognostication might be.

I can counter that logic as well because Gibson might be used as a WR at times and get additional targets that way. It is possible and the coaches have already stated an intent to use him in multiple ways.

Rookie WR do not typically get a lot of targets either, that usually takes a year, sometimes longer for them to reach their full potential, part of it just about the team they are on and the competition around them that determines their opportunity.

I do not expect as much from a player in their rookie seasons. Even RB who are the most ready to play right away for any position historically perform better on average  in their 2nd to 6th seasons than they do in their rookie season.

As far as his competition, I think Guice is a really good RB should he be healthy. I also will not bet against Peterson getting carries until he is actually out of the league, although he is no real threat to Gibson getting passing opportunities. That would be Love and McKissic and I do like Gibsons chances to earn playing time over them.

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Realistic ceiling comparison?

I was thinking David Johnson but not sure

The NFL is closer to position less football than ever before--just not sure the Redskins are the team that's going to lead the breakthrough

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10 minutes ago, KChusker said:

Realistic ceiling comparison?

I was thinking David Johnson but not sure

The NFL is closer to position less football than ever before--just not sure the Redskins are the team that's going to lead the breakthrough

I understand. But Carolina was never a pillar of hope. Look what they did with CMC.

 

I feel bad in a bit for him. Guy gives it his all. Probably won’t sniff winning team. But money is good. 

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3 hours ago, Blackbear said:

He’s a lot like cmc or Ekeler. CMC bulked up. But fifty fifty guy. Like those. 

Ekeler actually could be a nice career arc comp. He’s got 2 years with Guice, Ekeler had his first 2 years with Melvin then got a few games to start during the holdout. Gibson should get a chance to flash as a receiving threat out of the backfield like Ekeler did early on. He is a lot bigger so he may have more early down upside ala David Johnson but he’s so raw there who knows. Style wise I see some DJ when he runs and the background as a receiver is there.

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